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    Russian Oil and Gas Industry: News #3

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    owais.usmani


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    Post  owais.usmani Fri Oct 29, 2021 4:30 pm

    Arrow wrote: It wants to show that Russia is a very stable gas supplier

    Yeah right! Russia has been showing this very thing for the past 30 years, and what did they got in return from Europe?

    Arrow wrote: By pursuing a hard gas policy, it will only lose in the long run.

    Why lose? Russia has the gas and will always have the gas, but do you think Russian gas was always destined to be sold to Europe? Why not China, India, Far east Asia, Africa and Latin America? If Europe thinks Russian gas policy is too hard for them, they can always decide not to renew the contracts once they expire and stick that soft freedom gas deep down both of their holes.

    Karl Haushofer wrote:Putin will not be rewarded for his goodwill gestures. They will be seen as weakness and stupidity. And frankly they are right. It is a stupid ad weak thing to do.

    Absolutely! if only Putin could understand this! dunno

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    Post  JohninMK Fri Oct 29, 2021 4:38 pm

    owais.usmani wrote:
    Karl Haushofer wrote:Poland asks Gazprom to do a new discount deal for cheaper gas: https://www.rt.com/russia/538806-gas-discount-deal-request/

    My prediction what will happen next: Gazprom will initially decline, but then Putin will intervene and force Gazprom to sell cheaper gas to Poland.

    I agree, Putin is just too soft on Europe.

    Poland's state-run energy firm has asked Moscow for a new deal on cheaper gas amid rising prices and worsening shortages across much of Europe, despite its current contract for supplies not coming up for review for another year. On Thursday, PGNiG sent the request to Gazprom, asking it to cut the price of gas exported through the overland Yamal pipeline, despite market volatility and growing demand.

    According to a statement released on the firm's website, the country is hoping for a revision in prices "so that the current market situation is taken into account in the renegotiation process."

    Pavel Mayevsky, the head of PGNiG, said that there has been "an unprecedented rise in prices for natural gas on the European wholesale market." He went on to insist that "this extraordinary situation serves as the basis for revising the price conditions on which we purchase fuel under the Yamal contract." The agreement between Poland and Russia is set to expire in December next year.


    I suppose it all depends on what "cheaper" means.

    Is that cheaper than the current contract with 14 months to run (maybe that contract was spot price based?) or cheaper than the current spot price? Surely the "current market situation is taken into account" would imply a price increase. Surely the Poles actaully want to ignore "current market situation"?

    Poland must be worried that some of the Yamal gas will move to NS2 depriving them of revenue.

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    Post  LMFS Fri Oct 29, 2021 5:47 pm

    Freaking clowns, the current rising prices should be a reason for Gazprom to reduce already extremely low pipeline prices??? clown clown clown

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    Post  franco Fri Oct 29, 2021 6:14 pm

    LMFS wrote:Freaking clowns, the current rising prices should be a reason for Gazprom to reduce already extremely low pipeline prices???  clown  clown  clown


    Don't forget they (Poland) will also need to supply Ukraine and Moldavia with "Polish" natural gas... at market prices Wink Rolling Eyes

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    Post  JohninMK Fri Oct 29, 2021 6:35 pm

    franco wrote:
    LMFS wrote:Freaking clowns, the current rising prices should be a reason for Gazprom to reduce already extremely low pipeline prices???  clown  clown  clown


    Don't forget they (Poland) will also need to supply Ukraine and Moldavia with "Polish" natural gas... at market prices Wink  Rolling Eyes

    Ah, you mean the gas that definitely came in through the LNG terminal not the Yamal pipeline Laughing Laughing

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    Post  par far Fri Oct 29, 2021 7:28 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    owais.usmani wrote:
    Karl Haushofer wrote:Poland asks Gazprom to do a new discount deal for cheaper gas: https://www.rt.com/russia/538806-gas-discount-deal-request/

    My prediction what will happen next: Gazprom will initially decline, but then Putin will intervene and force Gazprom to sell cheaper gas to Poland.

    I agree, Putin is just too soft on Europe.

    Poland's state-run energy firm has asked Moscow for a new deal on cheaper gas amid rising prices and worsening shortages across much of Europe, despite its current contract for supplies not coming up for review for another year. On Thursday, PGNiG sent the request to Gazprom, asking it to cut the price of gas exported through the overland Yamal pipeline, despite market volatility and growing demand.

    According to a statement released on the firm's website, the country is hoping for a revision in prices "so that the current market situation is taken into account in the renegotiation process."

    Pavel Mayevsky, the head of PGNiG, said that there has been "an unprecedented rise in prices for natural gas on the European wholesale market." He went on to insist that "this extraordinary situation serves as the basis for revising the price conditions on which we purchase fuel under the Yamal contract." The agreement between Poland and Russia is set to expire in December next year.


    I suppose it all depends on what "cheaper" means.

    Is that cheaper than the current contract with 14 months to run (maybe that contract was spot price based?) or cheaper than the current spot price? Surely the "current market situation is taken into account" would imply a price increase. Surely the Poles actaully want to ignore "current market situation"?

    Poland must be worried that some of the Yamal gas will move to NS2 depriving them of revenue.


    Hopefully Russia asks for something in return for the cheaper gas, the Polish bastards, should not be helped at low cost.

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    Post  franco Fri Oct 29, 2021 10:42 pm

    29 Oct, 15:34
    Gazprom confirms gas contract extension with Moldova for 5 years, the parties also agreed upon the price formula and the audit of the debt accumulated by Moldovagaz



    MOSCOW, October 29. /TASS/. The gas supply contract with Moldova was renewed for 5 years from November 1, the Russian gas holding Gazprom said on Friday.

    "Gazprom and Moldovagaz extended the contract on Russian gas supply to Moldovan consumers from November 1, 2021 for the term of five years on mutually beneficial conditions," Gazprom said.

    The protocol on settlement of current issues in the gas sphere was signed on Friday in conclusion of ended negotiations.

    According to Moldova’s ministry of infrastructure, the parties also agreed upon the price formula and the audit of the debt accumulated by Moldovagaz.

    https://tass.com/economy/1355847

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    Post  Karl Haushofer Fri Oct 29, 2021 10:46 pm

    Moldova reached a new contract with Gazprom which will deliver gas to Moldova for the next five years. Moldova seems to be quite happy of the new contract so the price that Moldova has to pay must not be that high. Gazprom also has to deliver the gas to Moldova through Ukrainian gas pipelines because there are no alternative routes which also means that Ukraine will collect transit fees for Moldovan gas at least for the next five years.

    Moldova that just recently elected a pro-Western government was facing major energy crisis before Russia saved them. I’m thinking that Gazprom was initially unwilling to sell cheap gas to Moldova but was forced to do so after intervention of the Kremlin.
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    Post  Karl Haushofer Fri Oct 29, 2021 11:07 pm

    This reminds me of what happened today in Finland. Finnish president Sauli Niinistö met with Vladimir Putin for the first time in two years.

    One of the things that was discussed was timber trade between Russia and Finland. Finnish forest industry is currently quite dependent on timber imports from Russia because Russian timber is very cheap compared to Finnish timber. Finnish forest owners sell timber with very high price compared to imports from Russia.

    Importing timber from Russia has also been lucrative for Finnish companies because Russia doesn’t require forestry companies to re-plant the forests that they cut. In Finland the companies that cut forests have to do the re-planting that costs a lot of money. So these companies save a lot of money when they go to Russia and just cut the forest, take the timber to Finland and then leave. These companies have been treating Russian Karelia as their colony and basically raping Russian forests for the last 30 years or so.

    But in 2020 the Russian government made a decision that by 2022 Russia will prohibit exporting Russian timber abroad. With this decision the Russian government wanted to help to develop forest industry in Russia. This would also mean big troubles for these Finnish companies. So Russia received a lot of negative publicity because of this.

    Last month Russian government started make preparations for this. The Saimaa canal which connects the Gulf of Finland to Finnish river network is used to transport Russian timber to Finland. It is a cheap and efficient way to transport Russian timber here. The Russian government announced that in a near future transport of timber out of Russia will be prohibited in Saimaa canal. This announcement caused a lot of anger in Finnish press.

    But today – according to the Finnish press – president Putin promised Niinistö that he will talk to Russian officials to have this decision reversed because Putin doesn’t want to see Finnish industry suffer.

    This would great news for my country Finland that can continue to rape Russian forests, but oh man… what a moron this man is! I mean Putin! I don’t know why does he have this very odd, very strange desire to make goodwill gestures to countries that more or less openly detest him and Russia. Does he think he will get something in return? Does he think that these countries will like him more? If so, he is truly in idiot. These gestures are not seen as anything else than stupidity and weakness, and quite rightly so.

    Now let’s see if Russian officials and government are strong enough to resist Putin. I believe that there are many good people in Russian government who have a great desire to develop Russia. I can also imagine that many of them are getting increasingly tired of Putin.

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    Post  LMFS Sat Oct 30, 2021 3:15 am

    And I am increasingly tired of people without any credentials that think they know better than the guy that got Russia from shithole in full disintegration to superpower in 20 years...

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    Post  miketheterrible Sat Oct 30, 2021 3:41 am

    Karl Haushofer wrote:This reminds me of what happened today in Finland. Finnish president Sauli Niinistö met with Vladimir Putin for the first time in two years.

    One of the things that was discussed was timber trade between Russia and Finland. Finnish forest industry is currently quite dependent on timber imports from Russia because Russian timber is very cheap compared to Finnish timber. Finnish forest owners sell timber with very high price compared to imports from Russia.

    Importing timber from Russia has also been lucrative for Finnish companies because Russia doesn’t require forestry companies to re-plant the forests that they cut. In Finland the companies that cut forests have to do the re-planting that costs a lot of money. So these companies save a lot of money when they go to Russia and just cut the forest, take the timber to Finland and then leave. These companies have been treating Russian Karelia as their colony and basically raping Russian forests for the last 30 years or so.

    But in 2020 the Russian government made a decision that by 2022 Russia will prohibit exporting Russian timber abroad. With this decision the Russian government wanted to help to develop forest industry in Russia. This would also mean big troubles for these Finnish companies. So Russia received a lot of negative publicity because of this.

    Last month Russian government started make preparations for this. The Saimaa canal which connects the Gulf of Finland to Finnish river network is used to transport Russian timber to Finland. It is a cheap and efficient way to transport Russian timber here. The Russian government announced that in a near future transport of timber out of Russia will be prohibited in Saimaa canal. This announcement caused a lot of anger in Finnish press.

    But today – according to the Finnish press – president Putin promised Niinistö that he will talk to Russian officials to have this decision reversed because Putin doesn’t want to see Finnish industry suffer.

    This would great news for my country Finland that can continue to rape Russian forests, but oh man… what a moron this man is! I mean Putin! I don’t know why does he have this very odd, very strange desire to make goodwill gestures to countries that more or less openly detest him and Russia. Does he think he will get something in return? Does he think that these countries will like him more? If so, he is truly in idiot. These gestures are not seen as anything else than stupidity and weakness, and quite rightly so.

    Now let’s see if Russian officials and government are strong enough to resist Putin. I believe that there are many good people in Russian government who have a great desire to develop Russia. I can also imagine that many of them are getting increasingly tired of Putin.


    Or, you know, make Russia money and Russian industries. Law was.placed by Putin a year ago preventing sale of raw lumber. It has to be processed in Russia.

    You see, contrary to retards like yourself and maybe the entire Finnish state, Russia looks to continue to develop.  And you know what is great about contracts? That it puts Russia in a better position to **** with countries who try to break said agreements.

    LMFS wrote:And I am increasingly tired of people without any credentials that think they know better than the guy that got Russia from shithole in full disintegration to superpower in 20 years...

    People like Karl comes from a welfare state like Finland. No one gives a shit about them. So who cares what they think anyway? Russia will continue to make contracts, make money and tell the EU that they play by the games as per the contract or lose out.

    Yeah, Poland fucking sucks. But one thing is that eventually Poland will turn away from EU. And that is when things change.

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    Post  GarryB Sat Oct 30, 2021 12:21 pm

    Putin will not be rewarded for his goodwill gestures. They will be seen as weakness and stupidity. And frankly they are right. It is a stupid ad weak thing to do.

    But a very christain thing to do.

    It is funny that the idea that Russia might give a discount to Poland shows weakness... rather than understanding or compassion.

    The price of gas has gone up not because it costs more to extract or deliver, but because of the end of long term contracts and short term speculation on the market... it is a disease of the west that is currently damaging them, so it is funny and also rather sad that they might declare victory over Russia for Russia being compassionate to them despite their hate and venom they spit every day.

    Turn the other cheek... it clearly is just words for Europeans it seems.

    Yeah right! Russia has been showing this very thing for the past 30 years, and what did they got in return from Europe?

    The wish for revenge or to punish is huge, but where will it get Russia?

    If Europe can't afford Russia gas they will spend money and make efforts to find cheaper alternatives, or they will just learn to use less energy... neither of which would be good for Russia.

    Why lose? Russia has the gas and will always have the gas, but do you think Russian gas was always destined to be sold to Europe?

    In about 30 years most of Europe has committed to ending the use of fossil fuels... if Russia can manage things well it could convert them to nuclear where they take away the waste and reprocess it as fuel to sell back to them, but one way or another sales of gas and oil has a limited lifetime as a general fuel widely used. It will still be used as a lubricant or for cooking or whatever... but mass use likely does not have a long future if we are lucky and our plans work out as we hope.

    If Europe thinks Russian gas policy is too hard for them, they can always decide not to renew the contracts once they expire and stick that soft freedom gas deep down both of their holes.

    The funny thing is that in opposition to NSII they said that the US could sell gas to Europe to fill any shortfalls... but US gas is currently getting even better money in Asia...

    Absolutely! if only Putin could understand this!

    Being honourable is not about glory, it is about trust... Putin will have Gazprom sign some deals... Gazprom will still be making lots of money... the EU will keep using Russian Gas because US gas is unreliable. The EU already hates Russia... what they think is meaningless.

    But maybe they will learn to appreciate them... or not... there is a whole world out there that Russia can trade and negotiate with that will not talk down to them and will share the profits and benefits evenly and fairly...

    Sounds to me like Russia is the winner again.

    Poland must be worried that some of the Yamal gas will move to NS2 depriving them of revenue.

    Their ongoing hostility will almost certainly ensure that is the case moving forward...


    Hopefully Russia asks for something in return for the cheaper gas, the Polish bastards, should not be helped at low cost.

    Maybe if Poland recognised the Crimea as being Russian they could make a deal Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Twisted Evil

    Moldova reached a new contract with Gazprom which will deliver gas to Moldova for the next five years. Moldova seems to be quite happy of the new contract so the price that Moldova has to pay must not be that high.

    Russia does not want high gas prices because that will make them stop using gas at the customer level because they wont be able to afford it... they will shift to other heating options...


    Moldova that just recently elected a pro-Western government was facing major energy crisis before Russia saved them. I’m thinking that Gazprom was initially unwilling to sell cheap gas to Moldova but was forced to do so after intervention of the Kremlin.

    All Russian gas is cheap. It does not cost any more now to deliver than it did when it was 200 dollars a thousand cubic metres... the only thing that changes is the profit margin, and they already make a good living on it... if they make it too expensive then European customers will stop buying it because it costs too much... so European companies will stop importing it too... factories will shut down because the energy costs make their products no longer affordable to make... that does not help Russia at all.

    But today – according to the Finnish press – president Putin promised Niinistö that he will talk to Russian officials to have this decision reversed because Putin doesn’t want to see Finnish industry suffer.

    This would great news for my country Finland that can continue to rape Russian forests, but oh man… what a moron this man is! I mean Putin! I don’t know why does he have this very odd, very strange desire to make goodwill gestures to countries that more or less openly detest him and Russia. Does he think he will get something in return? Does he think that these countries will like him more? If so, he is truly in idiot. These gestures are not seen as anything else than stupidity and weakness, and quite rightly so.

    Now let’s see if Russian officials and government are strong enough to resist Putin. I believe that there are many good people in Russian government who have a great desire to develop Russia. I can also imagine that many of them are getting increasingly tired of Putin.

    You are making a lot of assumptions there... Putin said he would allow the export of wood to Finland, but as you point out all he needs to say is that Russia introduce the same rules as Finland and demand for every area of trees felled there must be a similar area of trees planted... in fact make it double the area needs to be planted... you can still export trees to Finland but replant what you cut down with interest and we can make money and Finland get their wood and we don't lose our forests... everyone wins.

    People... there is no need to insult other members just because you disagree with them.

    No one has to love or even understand Putin... sounds to me like he cares about the Forests in Russia being abused by his own country... that does not sound like a bad person to me.

    He might be right or he might be wrong, but there is no value in personal abuse, that is just ridiculous and honestly should be beneath adults like yourselves.
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    Post  Kiko Sat Oct 30, 2021 4:13 pm

    The prices at which Moldova will buy gas from Gazprom have been announced, 30/10/2021.

    Andrei Spinu: Moldova will buy gas from Gazprom in November at $ 450 per 1,000 cubic meters.

    CHISINAU, October 30 - RIA Novosti. Moldova will buy Russian gas in November at a price of $ 450 per thousand cubic meters, said Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Spinu on Facebook.

    "Under the current conditions, we will have a price that is two times lower than the market price and lower than what we paid in October ($ 790. - Editor's note)," he said.

    At the same time, the Deputy Prime Minister stressed that there are no political conditions in the contract with Gazprom.

    "In order to avoid speculation, the signed protocol does not provide for any political conditions and does not mention the Transnistrian region in any way," Spinu wrote.

    He also said that they took as a basis the formula proposed by the Moldovan delegation, which is based on the ratio of gas and oil prices on the market. Only "Gazprom" and " Moldovagaz " have the right to decide whether the formula will be made public, since the contract is part of their commercial relations, the Deputy Prime Minister added.

    According to him, negotiations with Gazprom were not easy and required many meetings both in Moscow and St. Petersburg, as well as phone calls at various levels. Spynu thanked everyone who took part in this and promised to tell about the details later.

    On the eve, Gazprom and Moldovagaz extended the contract for the supply of Russian gas for five years. It will enter into force on November 1. Gazprom noted that the parties signed a protocol on the settlement of current issues, and called the terms of extending the agreement mutually beneficial.

    Previously, Moldova bought gas according to a mixed formula, which provided for price reductions when large volumes were consumed. The average annual purchase price was about $ 200, while in September the republic paid $ 550 per thousand cubic meters.

    This contract expired on September 30th. The parties could not agree on new conditions and twice extended the agreement for a month, and the price of gas for Moldova rose to $ 790 per thousand cubic meters. The republic was facing an energy crisis. Last week, parliament declared a state of emergency so that funds could be quickly allocated from the budget to purchase additional volumes of gas to maintain pressure in the pipeline.

    https://ria.ru/20211030/gaz-1756988064.html


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    Post  franco Sat Oct 30, 2021 4:24 pm

    That price should allow them to repay their arrears of $700 million.

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    Post  GarryB Sun Oct 31, 2021 4:13 am

    That price should allow them to repay their arrears of $700 million.

    More importantly it will get them to agree they owe that much as it includes penalties they could have simply refused to acknowledge...

    Even 450 dollars per thousands cubic metres is excellent money for Gazprom... they must be making good profits as oil and gas return to more normal prices...

    Everyone will have burned through savings and want to get back to work to start earning again, which means energy demands will increase.

    It was mentioned on RT that while european media seem hard line anti Russia over gas issues, the EU officials have been pointing out that it is not Russia or Putin that created this situation and that they seem to be appreciating his efforts to solve the problems and not take advantage of the situation for short term gain... because that would be all it would be if he did... very short term gain... long term it would likely force most EU countries to look for alternative energy sources... which would hurt Russia going forward.

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    Post  nero Sun Oct 31, 2021 3:45 pm

    The Russians don't want to screw over the Europeans not because it will hurt long-term profits (remember, they sell gas via contract, they do not see the >1000$ per 1k cbm profit) but because they don't want to completely destroy European industry. They hope to see the Europeans as more independant from the United States.

    In addition, whenever the Europeans have some crisis (economic, political, etc) it evetually leads to a war as that has been historically the easiest option for them to remove any and all competition. Stability within Europe is good for the Russians and the Eurasian continent. The Russians do not want to start a war, because that would reset things to what they were post WWII.

    Remember that the Russian goal isn't to take over the world. It's to secure their country from external influance and make sure their industry/economy is strong enough for them to stay independant. The resources they have are of a planetary importance and assuming they are left alone for a long enough time, they have unlimited growth potential. Now, it is unlikely they'll become the #1 economy in the world due to demographic issues, but they are completely content with staying in the Top 10 range.

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    Post  Scorpius Sun Oct 31, 2021 9:16 pm

    Reconstruction of isopropylbenzene production in Omsk allowed to reduce emissions by 85% while increasing production by 30%.
    https://titan-group.ru/press/news/gruppa-kompaniy-titan-poluchila-razreshenie-na-vvod-v-ekspluatatsiyu-proizvodstva-kumola-i-izopropan/

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    Post  Scorpius Sun Oct 31, 2021 9:18 pm

    Chelyabinsk Plant of the United Metallurgical Company (JSC "Trubodetal") has manufactured the first block-modular unit in Russia for the separation of associated petroleum gas (gas refueling unit, BlOG). The installation, developed by employees of the Bauman Moscow State Technical University and the Gazprom Neft Scientific and Technical Center together with OMK engineers, has been tested and put into commercial operation at the Tsarichansk field, which is being developed by Gazpromneft-Orenburg.

    The installation allows oilfield companies to abandon the burning of crude associated gas, allowing it to be processed as much as possible directly at the field.

    Cooled and purified from mechanical impurities and water vapor, the gas is divided into useful fractions – gas gasoline and methane. The blog allows extracting up to 5.2 thousand tons of stable gas condensate from associated petroleum gas annually, and also reduces carbon dioxide (carbon dioxide) emissions at oil and gas treatment facilities by 7%.

    The drained distilled gas is sent as motor fuel to the power center of the oil treatment plant. At this time, the installation of the BlOG allows you to return to oil the target components that are lost with associated petroleum gas, while increasing the mass flow of commercial product for delivery to the pipeline by 1.5 percent. The design solutions of the installation allow to increase its energy efficiency by 10 percent, reduce its dimensions, and also ensure minimal hydraulic resistance of the flow through the blog.

    The installation itself is a block module with dimensions of 9 by 12 meters and a total weight of 80 tons, easily moved by trailers. One of its important advantages is that it can be quickly mounted directly on the field. The blog works in automatic mode with minimal participation of operators. Management and monitoring are carried out from the central control room.

    https://omk.ru/chelyabinsk/publications/35200/

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    Post  kvs Sun Oct 31, 2021 11:04 pm

    nero wrote:The Russians don't want to screw over the Europeans not because it will hurt long-term profits (remember, they sell gas via contract, they do not see the >1000$ per 1k cbm profit) but because they don't want to completely destroy European industry. They hope to see the Europeans as more independant from the United States.

    In addition, whenever the Europeans have some crisis (economic, political, etc) it evetually leads to a war as that has been historically the easiest option for them to remove any and all competition. Stability within Europe is good for the Russians and the Eurasian continent. The Russians do not want to start a war, because that would reset things to what they were post WWII.

    Remember that the Russian goal isn't to take over the world. It's to secure their country from external influance and make sure their industry/economy is strong enough for them to stay independant. The resources they have are of a planetary importance and assuming they are left alone for a long enough time, they have unlimited growth potential. Now, it is unlikely they'll become the #1 economy in the world due to demographic issues, but they are completely content with staying in the Top 10 range.

    GDP rankings are token. The GDP scales with the population size and does not reflect intrinsic quality (e.g. technological and scientific capacity, and even
    standard of living). Russia can be ahead of number one even being in fifth place. Also, a lot of the GDP size for the US and increasingly China is
    extraterritorial.

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    Post  owais.usmani Mon Nov 01, 2021 8:15 am

    https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/asia/360648/gazprom-ships-first-lng-to-india-via-northern-sea-route/

    Russia’s Gazprom (MCX:GAZP) said its Marshal Vasilevskiy vessel passed through the Northern Sea Route (NSR) with a cargo of liquefied natural gas (LNG) for the first time ever. The Russian LNG cargo was delivered under long-term contract to Indian company GAIL.

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    Post  JohninMK Mon Nov 01, 2021 11:49 am

    Good exchange on ZH. A good explanation of the position. The thread was about zero output from Yamal out of Poland on Saturday and reverse flow back from Germany.

    9 hours ago
    The West wants it to trade at the spot price, which they can manipulate with infinite naked shorts.


    8 hours ago
    I can hardly believe they think the Russians are that stupid, but yes, I believe you're right.


    5 hours ago
    Naked shorts are effective to control the price of Gold and Silver on exchanges that are dealing almost exclusively in speculative bets. But not on exchanges where actual delivery of commodities is the dominant activity. A demand for physical delivery on the Silver or Gold exchanges can simply be met with a cash settlement, under the exchange rules.

    The problem with naked shorts for natural gas is that sooner or later someone will demand physical delivery when supply is short and Winter is imminent. Cash settlements may be an adequate substitute for exchange traders, but are hard to keep lit for winter heat. And if the ultimate supplier, such as Gazprom, does not make sufficient gas available to cover the naked shorts, the price of short coverage can become astronomical quickly.

    I suspect the European Commission pushed EU members to avoid long-term contracts with Gazprom and to rely on the spot market because of a low-price period for oil and natural gas in 2019 (below Gazprom contract prices for natural gas) coupled with EC wishes to force Russia to accept the 3rd Energy Package and EC control of gas prices for all EU members, and the assumptions that 1) ``renewables`` would reduce the need for fuels from Russia, and 2) if Nordstream 2 was built, Russia would be desperate for natural gas sales to cover the $9.5 Billion sunk into pipeline construction. The EC could then force Russia to continue to use pipelines through Ukraine. If Russia refused to sell natural gas on the spot market, the EU nations could always buy LNG from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the USA.

    The EU went whole hog on ``renewables`` and started shutting down nuclear, oil, and coal-fired generating plants. But ``renewables`` have proved to be unreliable and uneconomic. LNG is not available, and EU storage facilities are not full enough to last through the forecast severe winter. Domestic oil, natural gas, and coal production are not sufficient to meet the EU`s needs, and international supplies are short and prices are high. Now ``Killer Vlad`` has the EU by the short hairs. The EC now looks like a bunch of clowns, but they can always go skiing in Switzerland on their expense accounts.


    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/europe-edge-after-russia-halts-gas-shipments-yamal-pipeline

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    Post  JohninMK Mon Nov 01, 2021 3:10 pm

    Interesting

    Liveuamap
    @Liveuamap
    ·
    20m
    Gazprom reduces transit through Ukraine to almost half of the booked(and paid) amount - Ukraine GTS Operator https://liveuamap.com/en/2021/1-november-gazprom-reduces-transit-through-ukraine-to-almost
    via @UKRINFORM
    #Ukraine


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    Post  GarryB Tue Nov 02, 2021 5:04 am

    Gazprom reduces transit through Ukraine to almost half of the booked(and paid) amount - Ukraine GTS Operato

    Which an EU leader or the EU media will use as proof that Russia is using gas supply as a weapon... but what does that chart show?

    The blue line is what Russia booked based on expected demand from the EU... the yellow line is what the EU actually bought and so the gray line follows the yellow line... and why would it not?

    Russia is not obliged to buy the capacity it has booked... the capacity it booked was the anticipated amount of gas the EU was expected to buy.... the fact that they bought less is not the fault of Russia.... it is the fault of spot price buying in the EU leaving their storage tanks low because they are finding the prices too high.

    Russia is supplying the gas on order and are not sending any extra... but why would they?

    The storage tanks in Europe are a scam to enable Europe to buy extra gas when it is cheap so when it gets more expensive they can reduce their costs by using stored cheaper gas rather than fresh gas from the pipeline at a higher price.

    That is a method the EU uses to keep its own gas prices lower... Russia does not benefit and would not benefit at all from sending gas now at the higher current value for storage so that it can be used by the EU later when it is cheaper... no company on the planet does that.

    It is also hilarious and I am sure the UK members are enjoying this... all this skull duggery and manipulation and accusations all these years about Russia using gas as a weapon and all the while making rules intended to limit and restrict Russia and try to force them to sell their gas as cheaply as the EU can possibly force them to sell it for and it turns out they were totally wrong, the prices are enormous, but they still blame Russia for everything.

    These unelected officials in the EU who are trying to force all the countries of Europe to buy gas from Russia as a collective... presumably to further force down the price and screw the Russians over even more.... have stuffed up... They don't have energy security because of their own policy and law changes, they have energy security because Russia and Germany built extra pipelines and Russia and Turkey have pipelines too.

    The EU policy of scrapping alternative energy sources as quickly as possible and over committing to green energy has been an own goal as green energy has not turned out to be as reliable as they had clearly hoped it would and they are in a bad situation.

    To be clear their situation is not bad because there is no energy... their situation is bad because there is no cheap energy... with all the pipes connected and working supplying Europe with gas is no problem at all even with low reserves... the problem is that it wont be as cheap as they had hoped because they have not kept their storage sites full for winter and now it is too late to fill them with cheap gas because the price of gas has gone up already.

    The EU bureaucrats won't care... they likely wont even lose their good performance bonuses... they certainly wont lose their jobs because there is no public vote to hold them accountable.

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    Post  Autodestruct Wed Nov 03, 2021 1:18 am

    Come on, GarryB. Buy low and sell high is the very heart of business. It isn't a scam when the EU uses storage tanks to its advantage to refrain buying when gas prices are high. Nor is it a scam when the Russians don't ship more than they have promised during periods of high prices (which would lower the price).

    Contracts are the happy medium where both sides best serve their interests. The problem is that energy is so political in the modern era. The greens have promised that the transition to the renewable utopia will be free. It's not. But they won't take the blame when things go awry. They will blame the Russian bear. I'm not saying that's right. It's just the way it is.

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    Post  lancelot Wed Nov 03, 2021 4:21 am

    The large gas storage facilities were built with the expectation of the arrival of "cheap" LNG. Because of the way LNG shipments work you need to have storage facilities unless you want to have a couple ships stuck in transit cause you to not have natural gas in the meantime. This "cheap" US LNG is instead going to Asia where it commands higher prices. Oh and it isn't "cheap" anymore. US liquefaction facilities are having issues with some closed down for maintenance. US never had either the tanker capacity or liquefaction capacity in the first place to properly supply Europe, nor did it have the pipeline facilities to carry the gas to those liquefaction facilities, nor do they have an economical way to capture most of the "fracked" gas which is typically just flared up in lots of teeny tiny teensy explorations which are uneconomical to pipe. It was all a giant bluff and EU leaders lapped it up.

    The latest US scam is selling SMR reactors and AP1000 nuclear reactors to Europe. They are doing this in Poland, Hungary and Ukraine among other places. The AP1000 project is seriously delayed in the US with multiple budget overruns and corruption in construction which actually led to Toshiba going bankrupt as US contractors hid construction cost overruns in their balance sheets prior to Toshiba acquiring Westinghouse with Toshiba left to foot the bill. The only AP1000 reactors in operation in the world are in China, partly made with Chinese components, and have had major issues with US supplied components like impellers craking. For this reason China cancelled all further AP1000 construction, they had at least 8 more reactors planned and all were cancelled in favor of their own Hualong One design and Russian VVER. The SMR reactors are another scam and haven't been built or in operation anywhere in the world. They claim a dozen of the small SMR reactors will be cheaper than a single large conventional reactor, but that's not how nuclear economics work. They never did. It is a giant scam.

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