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    Russian Oil and Gas Industry: News #3

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Sat Oct 23, 2021 4:48 am

    So they are bitching about Russia not sending gas through NS2 while dragging their heels on certifying NS2?

    What a schizophrenic spasm.

    No.

    They are complaining that Russia has pumped 117 mln cms into the NSII pipes so if they get the clearance to use them they can be used to deliver gas straight away.

    So they have purged whatever was in the pipe... probably just normal air, and pumped gas into the pipes so the pipes contain gas and should therefore be much faster and easier to activate to provide gas direct to germany because that step has already been taken.

    The EU are complaining that instead of using that gas to fill the pipeline they could have sent it directly to the EU presumably through the Ukraine and they could have used it to fill their storage tanks to a higher level for winter.

    Ie they want freebies and they don't want to pay the increased price but they want the gas.

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    ALAMO


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    Post  ALAMO Sat Oct 23, 2021 9:14 am

    There is another factor that we have missed.
    It is Ukraine, that started to steal the gas again, in a good, old fashion way of the 00s.

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    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:28 am

    ALAMO wrote:There is another factor that we have missed.
    It is Ukraine, that started to steal the gas again, in a good, old fashion way of the 00s.

    Have you got a link to them stealing again?
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:39 am

    kvs wrote:

    Supposedly Russia is also obliged to send gas through Banderastan and pay a transit fee for the security benefit
    of EU-rope.  
    Not supposedly but by contract. It is a pump or pay clause where a guaranteed payment is made regardless of whether the minimum amount of gas specified is pumped until 31st December 2024.

    It made sense at the time as Russia expected to ship that minimum and it smoothed the political path for NS2.

    The gas price spike and the bad decisions in Europe on contract pricing and storage replenishment has really played into the hands of the Russians. Resulting in what looks as if it is going to be an enforced NS2 activation due to need, eliminating what might have been expected, much EU posturing and Ukraine transit leverage.
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    ALAMO


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    Post  ALAMO Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:44 am

    JohninMK wrote:
    ALAMO wrote:There is another factor that we have missed.
    It is Ukraine, that started to steal the gas again, in a good, old fashion way of the 00s.

    Have you got a link to them stealing again?

    Putin stated that let's say, indirectly, at the Valadai, a few days ago.
    Plus there were already claims from the Ukr side, that they will use the EU storage for their own purposes if Russia will cut them off.
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    Post  JohninMK Sat Oct 23, 2021 12:32 pm

    ALAMO wrote:
    JohninMK wrote:
    ALAMO wrote:There is another factor that we have missed.
    It is Ukraine, that started to steal the gas again, in a good, old fashion way of the 00s.

    Have you got a link to them stealing again?

    Putin stated that let's say, indirectly, at the Valadai, a few days ago.
    Plus there were already claims from the Ukr side, that they will use the EU storage for their own purposes if Russia will cut them off.
    OK I didn't spot that. So no actual claim just alluded to.

    What I did spot was that there are rumours that Ukraine's storage facilities are being used by EU gas traders who saw this situation coming to gain megga profits.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs Sat Oct 23, 2021 1:58 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    kvs wrote:

    Supposedly Russia is also obliged to send gas through Banderastan and pay a transit fee for the security benefit
    of EU-rope.  
    Not supposedly but by contract. It is a pump or pay clause where a guaranteed payment is made regardless of whether the minimum amount of gas specified is pumped until 31st December 2024.

    It made sense at the time as Russia expected to ship that minimum and it smoothed the political path for NS2.

    The gas price spike and the bad decisions in Europe on contract pricing and storage replenishment has really played into the hands of the Russians. Resulting in what looks as if it is going to be an enforced NS2 activation due to need, eliminating what might have been expected, much EU posturing and Ukraine transit leverage.

    I know that Russia signed a new deal with Ukraine when NS2 got delayed.   I am referring to the rhetoric from western "leaders"
    that NS2 is bad for EU-rope's energy security and that Russia should use Banderastani pipelines instead.   Russia, naturally
    has to pay Banderastan a transit fee.   And there is no 50% capacity limit on Gazprom in the name supplier competition
    like EU-tardia is trying to impose on NS2.

    BTW, the contract with Banderastan penalizes Russia for any extra gas transit. If it is over 40 billion cubic meters per year
    then the transit fee increases by a factor of three.
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    Post  ALAMO Sat Oct 23, 2021 7:36 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    OK I didn't spot that. So no actual claim just alluded to.

    What I did spot was that there are rumours that Ukraine's storage facilities are being used by EU gas traders who saw this situation coming to gain megga profits.

    Kind off. What he said can be translated as "as for Ukrainian storages, we are all professionals, and we all know what is going on there".
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    Post  kvs Sat Oct 23, 2021 8:04 pm

    It was not merely Putin's claim. I have seen several Russian language videos where Kiev regime officials are openly talking about
    expropriating gas belonging to EU companies that sits in storage in Ukraine. Ukraine has a lot of Soviet era gas storage capacity.

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Sun Oct 24, 2021 7:47 am

    There is a minimum flow through the Ukraine that Russia has agreed to which should equate to the amount of gas that the EU has ordered minus the gas going through NSI and South Stream of course.

    If Russia has to pump extra gas through the Ukraine then the addition of transit fees is included in the cost so Russia does not lose out... it just ends up costing the EU customer even more for their gas.

    Once the NSII pipelines are operational the only transit fees AFAIK go to Denmark for their little island in the way that the pipeline passes through the waters of so without multiple transit fees the gas will be much cheaper even if it comes from the same source.

    The thing to be aware of... the market price is rocketed up, but the production and deliver costs have not changed so any gas sold will deliver to Russia massive profit margins... but despite a spot market price now of over 1,000 per thousand cubic metres of gas they will likely still be offering 10 or 15 year contracts for 250 to 300 dollars per K cubic metres, because spot profits are not reliable and long term contracts means stability for everyone.

    I don't think too many years of paying market prices will lead to a rethink in their market forces policy because market forces lead to instability and variability in the market and that always puts the price up, which snowballs... and creates feast and famine situations. Not good for something like energy which you want to be stable.
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    Post  ALAMO Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:29 am

    Well, we can expect a pure deja vu of the 00s.
    Russians will pump the contracted gas for Europe, Ukrs will steal it, the pressure will be dropping, and Poland will be the first to yap about ze evil Ruskies switching off the flow.
    Just as it used to be.
    That pathetic case was well understood in the core EU, leading to the Nord Stream.
    The story will repeat itself.
    Both Poland and Ukraine will be switched off the flow just when the contracts cease to exist and can swallow all the freedom gas the mighty Murica can ship them, using freedom LNG terminals in the pribaltic Bantustans&Poland. That is null at the moment because they seem not be interested, while the whole of this herd can't afford present spot pricing.
    And we will witness South Stream in realization, bringing gas to Italy via Balkans.
    Business as usual.

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    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Sun Oct 24, 2021 12:04 pm

    GarryB wrote:. but despite a spot market price now of over 1,000 per thousand cubic metres of gas they will likely still be offering 10 or 15 year contracts for 250 to 300 dollars per K cubic metres, because spot profits are not reliable and long term contracts means stability for everyone.

    Word on the street was that Hungary got around 220 for 15 years in last months contract. Gazprom saying that they wanted stability and certainty on future revenue, not big profits. Given Russia's move away from the US$ I'd be surprised if the contract wasn't actually in Euros, the US$ just being quoted for comparison.
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    Post  kvs Sun Oct 24, 2021 2:21 pm

    I have seen no information about the Banderite transit fee being folded into the final price of the gas. That would be
    sort of an obvious inference, but if you recall there is always lots of fuss about taxes on corporations in the west.
    The companies can't simply offload the tax onto the consumers through price increases. There is some competition
    and an actual market price or price that is expected.

    From the various analysis videos put out by Mercouris, who goes through vastly more articles than I do, it sounds
    like there is a financial burden on Gazprom imposed by transit fees.

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    Post  GarryB Mon Oct 25, 2021 4:36 am

    Well, we can expect a pure deja vu of the 00s.
    Russians will pump the contracted gas for Europe, Ukrs will steal it, the pressure will be dropping, and Poland will be the first to yap about ze evil Ruskies switching off the flow.
    Just as it used to be.
    That pathetic case was well understood in the core EU, leading to the Nord Stream.
    The story will repeat itself.

    Ukraine will hope so because they can rely on the EU to support their position, and for Russia to be painted as the bad guy, but their problem this time around is that there are now alternative in place pipelines that bypass them... south stream and NSII... and more importantly Russia is starting to get sick and tired of the shit they are getting from the EU... they realise the dream of a Eurasian bloc from the atlantic to the pacific is dead... Europe is not interested... so there is a good chance if the Ukraine starts stealing gas and the EU chooses to punish Russia for not receiving the gas they paid for that Russia might just seal up the pipe to the Ukraine and tell the EU they will only pump through south stream and north stream because they are the only pipes where gas cannot be stolen by the Orcs.

    The EU might have a tantrum over that and refuse to buy any gas... which means Russia can just liquify that gas and ship it to Asia and earn a much larger profit from it instead.

    The Ukraine needs to learn the story of the boy who cried wolf.... the EU are not going to put up with freezing just to show solidarity with the Ukraine.

    Both Poland and Ukraine will be switched off the flow just when the contracts cease to exist and can swallow all the freedom gas the mighty Murica can ship them, using freedom LNG terminals in the pribaltic Bantustans&Poland. That is null at the moment because they seem not be interested, while the whole of this herd can't afford present spot pricing.
    And we will witness South Stream in realization, bringing gas to Italy via Balkans.
    Business as usual.

    Freedom gas is not coming to Europe... they get much better prices in Asia and that is where they are shipping all their gas for sale.

    Word on the street was that Hungary got around 220 for 15 years in last months contract. Gazprom saying that they wanted stability and certainty on future revenue, not big profits. Given Russia's move away from the US$ I'd be surprised if the contract wasn't actually in Euros, the US$ just being quoted for comparison.

    And that is the point... the gas does not cost 200 dollars per thousand cms to extract and deliver so they are making a good living from this price... getting 1,000 dollars for the same amount sounds nice... but it wont last because if gas costs that much then LNG becomes attractive instead and they will start looking for alternative energy sources to replace gas because gas wont be the cheap option any more.

    Overcharging is shooting yourself in the foot... and destroying your own customer base.

    Will definitely be in Euros... might even be in rubles if the EU keeps up with the sanctions because they might have as much trouble spending Euros soon as they would have spending dollars.

    From the various analysis videos put out by Mercouris, who goes through vastly more articles than I do, it sounds
    like there is a financial burden on Gazprom imposed by transit fees.

    There is a minimum flow agreed and for any extra flow they need to pay extra transit fees, so even if they send no gas through the pipes they have to pay the Ukrainians the fees for the agreed to flow amounts so essentially they get a minimum fee... but that would also mean their fees would not reflect the value of the gas going through so whether it is a 220 dollar per kcm, or spot price bought gas at 1,200 dollars per kcm, the transit fees they get will be the same per kcm... which will be something they complain about too.

    That means that while the gas prices are high any transit fee costs will be a minor fraction of the profit margin...

    As Putin mentioned when he ordered Gazprom to pump gas through the Ukraine and bypassing Ukraine and just paying them the fees owed for what should have passed through their pipes was cheaper than actually pumping gas through the Ukraine... which suggests other routes are significantly cheaper.

    I rather suspect the pipes in Ukraine are not in great condition either... not to mention the ongoing risk of theft makes it an undesirable option.

    When Putin said he didn't want Ukrainians to freeze suggests he expected them to get "access" to enough gas to keep houses warm this winter... so he is expecting them to either pay for or steal gas.
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    Post  owais.usmani Mon Oct 25, 2021 3:56 pm

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    Post  miketheterrible Mon Oct 25, 2021 4:42 pm

    Good. Those assholes and their anti Russian government can freeze. **** em

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    Post  kvs Mon Oct 25, 2021 7:00 pm

    Moldova's outstanding debt is 4.2 billion US dollars which it refuses to pay. Moldova thinks it can pull a price out of its anus
    and then Gazprom has to abide by it.

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    Post  ALAMO Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:49 pm

    The weird part of it is the fact, that a month or so ago, there were some rumors aired, that they actually agreed new contract.
    Now wondering whose insider's job was it, and why? scratch

    Edit :
    OK, that cleared out.



    It was a carrot before a stick.

    Anyway, it is kinda funny when someone who is owning your cash, is trying to bully you to get better rates.
    Insane for any reasonable economical ties, but works for dogs hunting the lord's dropped bones I guess ...
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    Post  owais.usmani Tue Oct 26, 2021 1:10 pm



    lol!

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    Post  ALAMO Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:02 pm

    A whole million?
    Now I feel impressed.
    lol!
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    Post  owais.usmani Wed Oct 27, 2021 8:31 am

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    Post  Karl Haushofer Fri Oct 29, 2021 1:55 pm

    Poland asks Gazprom to do a new discount deal for cheaper gas: https://www.rt.com/russia/538806-gas-discount-deal-request/

    My prediction what will happen next: Gazprom will initially decline, but then Putin will intervene and force Gazprom to sell cheaper gas to Poland.

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    Post  owais.usmani Fri Oct 29, 2021 2:58 pm

    Karl Haushofer wrote:Poland asks Gazprom to do a new discount deal for cheaper gas: https://www.rt.com/russia/538806-gas-discount-deal-request/

    My prediction what will happen next: Gazprom will initially decline, but then Putin will intervene and force Gazprom to sell cheaper gas to Poland.

    I agree, Putin is just too soft on Europe.
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    Post  Arrow Fri Oct 29, 2021 3:23 pm

    Is not. Putin cares about business. It wants to show that Russia is a very stable gas supplier with whom you can negotiate various terms, etc. In business, customers are often encouraged by various promotions, etc. It will only benefit from this. By pursuing a hard gas policy, it will only lose in the long run.

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    Post  Karl Haushofer Fri Oct 29, 2021 3:39 pm

    Arrow wrote:Is not.  Putin cares about business.  It wants to show that Russia is a very stable gas supplier with whom you can negotiate various terms, etc. In business, customers are often encouraged by various promotions, etc. It will only benefit from this.  By pursuing a hard gas policy, it will only lose in the long run.

    Russia can be a stable gas supplier by sticking to its contracts. Russia needs to do nothing more than that.

    If customers want cheaper gas than what is mentioned in the contract then Russia has no obligation to sell it any cheaper. Especially to a country like Poland that is a sworn enemy of Russia and that has done everything it can to block Nord Stream 2. Why the hell should Russia help Poland in any way?

    Putin will not be rewarded for his goodwill gestures. They will be seen as weakness and stupidity. And frankly they are right. It is a stupid ad weak thing to do.

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