Russia Defence Forum

Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Military Forum for Russian and Global Defence Issues


+44
TMA1
mnztr
ALAMO
slasher
Daniel_Admassu
flamming_python
PapaDragon
calripson
lyle6
lancelot
SeigSoloyvov
JohninMK
mavaff
Pacense
franco
LMFS
Big_Gazza
Kiko
Hole
Rodion_Romanovic
miketheterrible
Aristide
George1
KiloGolf
GunshipDemocracy
OminousSpudd
par far
higurashihougi
Kyo
AbsoluteZero
GarryB
KomissarBojanchev
TR1
mack8
Strizh
sepheronx
Hannibal Barca
Werewolf
magnumcromagnon
Behrooz
Airbornewolf
nemrod
Cyberspec
lulldapull
48 posters

    Russia-EU relationship

    GarryB
    GarryB


    Posts : 35308
    Points : 35832
    Join date : 2010-03-30
    Location : New Zealand

    Russia-EU relationship - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia-EU relationship

    Post  GarryB Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:52 pm

    The point is that this guy is a business guy and has probably held this opinion all along... but no newspaper in the west towing the government line was interested in passing these views on to their readerships.

    From a purely business perspective the US is using the Ukraine to damage the EU as well as Russia because they don't want either to be an economic threat to their leadership and position.

    The fact that any major publication is prepared to actually publish this shows the worms are turning and people are starting to realise that the freedom and rights of Ukraine don't really impact them very much at all... but the US destroying their access to cheap supplies of energy from Russia through sanctions and actual explosives is accelerating them towards serious economic damage... they don't mind economic sanctions on Venezuela or Russia, but when it is their own economy that is at risk they start to realise this shit is getting real... and American talk of Russia using nuclear weapons is probably actually working against the US and helping EU citizens to realise a retreat from that suicide charge might be their best option... I don't think they realise Putin has given up on good relations with the EU... the EU think when this conflict ends it will be back to normal... but it wont.

    Putin wants this done right... not done fast.

    Which means the EU are going to suffer this winter... and I have seen some western media outlets actually saying their next winter might be worse... perhaps because they will have a better idea of what is coming and no practical solutions possible before 2025.

    The west has done rather worse to lots of countries so perhaps experiencing it for themselves might make them less keen to invade and bomb and rob other countries just because the US wants them to.

    Maybe a little recognition that Russia was helping them out selling them cheap energy... but that ship has sailed... no going back to that when the pipes to Asia are built.

    kvs, Sprut-B, lancelot and Broski like this post

    lancelot
    lancelot


    Posts : 1649
    Points : 1651
    Join date : 2020-10-17

    Russia-EU relationship - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia-EU relationship

    Post  lancelot Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:34 am

    Next winter will be worse because Nord Stream will be down, half of the capacity of the Soyuz pipeline in Ukraine is down, and the Yamal pipeline is closed. And none of the recently proposed FSRUs in Germany will be online, nor will there be enough LNG for them.

    And for those thinking of replacing gas with coal or nuclear, you cannot build a power plant in a single year. Not even a coal power plant. It is one thing taking plants out of mothballs, another to build a new plant. A new nuclear power plant typically takes 6 years to build or more. A coal power plant probably 2 years.

    kvs, Sprut-B and Broski like this post

    kvs
    kvs


    Posts : 13780
    Points : 13925
    Join date : 2014-09-10
    Location : Turdope's Kanada

    Russia-EU relationship - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia-EU relationship

    Post  kvs Sat Oct 01, 2022 5:11 am

    There is a universal delusion that the US can supply all the LNG that the EU needs but that it will be more expensive. This delusion
    includes Russian pundits.

    1) The EU does not have enough LNG port infrastructure and neither does the US to transfer 150+ bcm/year via LNG.

    2) Building such facilities and the LNG carriers takes longer than a few months. In fact, it takes a few years.

    3) The US does not have anywhere near 150+ bcm/year export capacity. This point is completely lost on so-called
    experts. They think that wild predictions about US non-conventional gas reserves translates into LNG export capacity.
    Total insane BS. US production is what it is and clearly cannot be dialed up on a whim. Production =/= hypothetical
    reserves.

    The EU is f*cked sideways and upside down in the next few years.

    Sprut-B, Hole, lancelot and Broski like this post

    Hole
    Hole


    Posts : 8400
    Points : 8388
    Join date : 2018-03-24
    Age : 46
    Location : Scholzistan

    Russia-EU relationship - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia-EU relationship

    Post  Hole Sat Oct 01, 2022 5:42 am

    A new nuclear power plant typically takes 6 years to build or more.
    In Russia or China. The one in Finland was started in 2005, another one in France in 2007.  What a Face



    From an article by Michael Hudson:
    The reaction to the sabotage of three of the four Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in four places on Monday, September 26, has focused on speculations about who did it and whether NATO will make a serious attempt to discover the answer. Yet instead of panic, there has been a great sigh of diplomatic relief, even calm. Disabling these pipelines ends the uncertainty and worries on the part of US/NATO diplomats that nearly reached a crisis proportion the previous week, when large demonstrations took place in Germany calling for the sanctions to end and to commission Nord Stream 2 to resolve the energy shortage.

    kvs, Sprut-B, lancelot and Broski like this post

    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 12036
    Points : 12163
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    Russia-EU relationship - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia-EU relationship

    Post  JohninMK Sat Oct 01, 2022 5:46 am

    Worth putting the whole Michael Hudson article mentioned by Hole above here. This is now the apparent future for many of us here. Very scary.



       The Euro Without German Industry

       The reaction to the sabotage of three of the four Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in four places on Monday, September 26, has focused on speculations about who did it and whether NATO will make a serious attempt to discover the answer. Yet instead of panic, there has been a great sigh of diplomatic relief, even calm. Disabling these pipelines ends the uncertainty and worries on the part of US/NATO diplomats that nearly reached a crisis proportion the previous week, when large demonstrations took place in Germany calling for the sanctions to end and to commission Nord Stream 2 to resolve the energy shortage.

       The German public was coming to understand what it will mean if their steel companies, fertilizer companies, glass companies and toilet-paper companies were shutting down. These companies were forecasting that they would have to go out of business entirely – or shift operations to the United States – if Germany did not withdraw from the trade and currency sanctions against Russia and permit Russian gas and oil imports to resume, and presumably to fall back from their astronomical eight to tenfold price increase.

       Yet State Department hawk Victoria Nuland already had stated in January that “one way or another Nord Stream 2 will not move forward” if Russia responded to the accelerating Ukrainian military attacks on the Russian-speaking eastern oblasts. President Biden backed up U.S. insistence on February 7, promising that “there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it. … I promise you, we will be able to do it.”

       Most observers simply assumed that these statements reflected the obvious fact that German politicians were fully in the US/NATO pocket. Germany’s politicians held fast turbines refusing to authorize Nord Stream 2, and Canada soon seized the Siemens dynamos needed to send gas through Nord Stream 1. That seemed to settle matters until German industry – and a rising number of voters – finally began to calculate just what blocking Russian gas would mean for Germany’s industrial firms, and hence domestic employment.

       Germany’s willingness to self-impose an economic depression was wavering – although not its politicians or the EU bureaucracy. If policymakers were to put German business interests and living standards first, NATO’s common sanctions and New Cold War front would be broken. Italy and France might follow suit. That prospect made it urgent to take the anti-Russian sanctions out of the hands of democratic politics.

       Despite being an act of violence, sabotaging the pipelines has restored calm to US/NATO diplomatic relations. There is no more uncertainty about whether Europe may break away from U.S. diplomacy by restoring mutual trade and investment with Russia. The threat of Europe breaking away from the US/NATO trade and financial sanctions against Russia has been solved, seemingly for the foreseeable future. Russia has announced that the gas pressure is falling in three of the four pipelines, and the infusion of salt water will irreversibly corrode the pipes. (Tagesspiegel, September 28.)

        Where do the euro and dollar go from here?

       Looking at how this will reshape the relationship between the U.S. dollar and the euro, one can understand why the seemingly obvious consequences of Germany, Italy and other European economies severing trade ties with Russia have not been discussed openly. The solution is a German and indeed Europe-wide economic crash. The next decade will be a disaster. There may be recriminations against the price paid for letting Europe’s trade diplomacy be dictated by NATO, but there is nothing that Europe can do about it. Nobody (yet) expects it to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. What is expected is for its living standards to plunge.

       German industrial exports and attraction of foreign investment inflows were major factors supporting the euro’s exchange rate. To Germany, the great attraction in moving from the deutsche mark to the euro was to avoid its export surplus pushing up the D-mark’s exchange rate and pricing German products out of world markets. Expanding the eurozone to include Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain and other countries running balance-of-payments deficits prevented the euro from soaring. That protected the competitiveness of German industry.

       After its introduction in 1999 at $1.12, the euro sank to $0.85 by July 2001, but recovered and indeed rose to $1.58 in April 2008. It has been drifting down steadily since then, and since February of this year the sanctions have driven the euro’s exchange rate below parity with the dollar, to $0.97 this week.

       The major deficit problem has been rising prices for imported gas and oil, and products such as aluminum and fertilizer requiring heavy energy inputs for their production. And as the euro’s exchange rate declines against the dollar, the cost of carrying Europe’s US-dollar debt – the normal condition for affiliates of U.S. multinationals –rises, squeezing profits.

       This is not the kind of depression in which “automatic stabilizers” can work to restore economic balance. Energy dependency is structural. To make matters worse, the eurozone’s economic rules limit its budget deficits to just 3% of GDP. This prevents its national governments supporting the economy by deficit spending. Higher energy and food prices – and dollar-debt service – will leave much less income to be spent on goods and services.

       As a final kicker, pointed out by Pepe Escobar on September 28 that “Germany is contractually obligated to purchase at least 40 billion cubic meters of Russian gas a year until 2030. … Gazprom is legally entitled to get paid even without shipping gas. … Berlin does not get all the gas it needs but still needs to pay.” A long court battle can be expected before money will change hands. And Germany’s ultimate ability to pay will be steadily weakening.

       It seems curious that the U.S. stock market soared over 500 points for the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Wednesday. Maybe the Plunge Protection Team was intervening to try and reassure the world that everything was going to be all right. But the stock market gave back most of these gains on Thursday as reality no longer could be brushed aside.

       German industrial competition with United States is ending, helping the U.S. trade balance. But on capital account the euro’s depreciation will reduce the value of U.S. investments in Europe and the dollar-value of any profits they may still earn as the European economy shrinks. Reported global earnings by U.S. multinationals will fall.

        The effect of U.S. sanctions and the New Cold War outside of Europe

       The ability of many countries to pay their foreign and domestic debts already was reaching the breaking point before the anti-Russian sanctions raised world energy and food prices. The sanctions-driven price increases have been compounded by the dollar’s rising exchange rate against nearly all currencies (ironically, except against the ruble, whose rate has soared instead of collapsing as U.S. strategists tried in vain to make happen). International raw materials are still priced mainly in dollars, so the dollar’s currency appreciation is further raising import prices for most countries.

       The rising dollar also raises the local currency cost of servicing foreign debts denominated in dollars. Many European and Global South countries already have reached the limit of their ability to service their dollar-denominated debts, and are still coping with the impact of the Covid pandemic. Now that US/NATO sanctions have driven up world prices for gas, oil and grain – and with the dollar’s appreciation raising the cost of servicing dollar-denominated debts – these countries cannot afford to import the energy and food that they need to live if they have to pay their foreign debts. Something has to give.

       On Tuesday, September 27, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken shed crocodile tears and said that attacking Russian pipelines was “in no one’s interest.” But if that really were the case, no one would have attacked the gas lines. What Mr. Blinken really was saying was “Don’t ask Cui bono.” I don’t expect NATO investigators to go beyond accusing the usual suspects that U.S. officials automatically blame.

       U.S. strategists must have a game plan for how to proceed from here. They will try to maintain a neoliberalized global economy for as long as they can. They will use the usual ploy for countries unable to pay their foreign debts: The IMF will lend them the money to pay – on the condition that they raise the foreign exchange to repay by privatizing what remains of their public domain, natural-resource patrimony and other assets, selling them to U.S. financial investors and their allies.

       Will it work? Or will debtor countries band together and work out ways to restore the world of affordable oil and gas prices, fertilizer prices, grain and other food prices, metals and raw materials supplied by Russia, China and their allied Eurasian neighbors, without U.S. “conditionalities” such as have ended European prosperity?

       An alternative to the U.S.-designed neoliberal order is the great worry for U.S. strategists. They cannot solve the problem as easily as sabotaging Nord Stream 1 and 2. Their solution probably will be the usual U.S. approach: military intervention and new color revolutions hoping to gain the same power over Global South and Eurasia that America’s diplomacy via NATO wielded over Germany and other European countries.

       The fact that U.S. expectations for how anti-Russian sanctions would work out against Russia have been just the reverse of what actually has happened gives hope for the world’s future. The opposition and even contempt by U.S. diplomats toward other countries acting in their own economic interest deems it a waste of time (and indeed, to be unpatriotic) to contemplate how foreign countries might develop their own alternative to the U.S. plans. The assumption underlying this U.S. tunnel vision is that There Is No Alternative – and that if they don’t think about such a prospect, it will remain unthinkable.

       But unless other countries work together to create an alternative to the IMF, World Bank, International Court, World Trade Organization and the numerous UN agencies now biased toward the U.S/NATO by U.S. diplomats and their proxies, the coming decades will see the U.S. economic strategy of financial and military dominance unfold along the lines that Washington has planned. The question is whether these countries can develop an alternative new economic order to protect themselves from a fate like that which Europe this year has imposed upon itself for the next decade.  

    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/09/michael-hudson-on-the-euro-without-germany.html

    franco, Sprut-B, Hole and Broski like this post

    Hole
    Hole


    Posts : 8400
    Points : 8388
    Join date : 2018-03-24
    Age : 46
    Location : Scholzistan

    Russia-EU relationship - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia-EU relationship

    Post  Hole Sat Oct 01, 2022 5:51 am

    I put it here because the shitty org is part of the west

    Russia-EU relationship - Page 11 Fd944f10
    Freedom of speech, baby. For us. Not for them.

    flamming_python, Werewolf, kvs, Sprut-B, TMA1 and Broski like this post

    avatar
    owais.usmani


    Posts : 1554
    Points : 1552
    Join date : 2019-03-27
    Age : 36

    Russia-EU relationship - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia-EU relationship

    Post  owais.usmani Thu Oct 06, 2022 10:07 am

    Looks like the Czechs got some big plans Mad

    Kiko
    Kiko


    Posts : 1689
    Points : 1713
    Join date : 2020-11-11
    Age : 74
    Location : Brasilia

    Russia-EU relationship - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia-EU relationship

    Post  Kiko Thu Oct 06, 2022 10:14 am

    Russian philosopher Dugin is included in the list of personal sanctions of the EU against Russia, 10.06.2022.

    On Thursday (6), the European Union released the list of personal sanctions against Russia, as part of the eighth package of restrictions against Moscow after the accession of the new territories to the country.

    Yandex Translate from Portuguese.

    https://sputniknewsbrasil.com.br/20221006/filosofo-russo-dugin-e-incluido-na-lista-de-sancoes-pessoais-da-ue-contra-russia-25222291.html

    It was him who in fact was in Kiev's kill-list instead of his daughter.
    GarryB
    GarryB


    Posts : 35308
    Points : 35832
    Join date : 2010-03-30
    Location : New Zealand

    Russia-EU relationship - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia-EU relationship

    Post  GarryB Fri Oct 07, 2022 4:25 am

    Looks like the Czechs got some big plans

    Love to see them try... I bet you when they were asked the question there was no talk about the consequences of trying to seize territory from people who clearly want to remain Russian and with Russia having nuclear weapons and also Article 5 not applying if the Czech republic actually attacks Russia... other HATO members are not obliged to help in that situation.

    kvs, Sprut-B and Broski like this post

    avatar
    ALAMO


    Posts : 3916
    Points : 3918
    Join date : 2014-11-25

    Russia-EU relationship - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia-EU relationship

    Post  ALAMO Fri Oct 07, 2022 4:27 am

    Are you really going to discuss this trolling and turn on a rage about that? Laughing
    Seems that some of you succeeded with the mission of finding a child inside ... Laughing Laughing
    flamming_python
    flamming_python


    Posts : 8013
    Points : 8089
    Join date : 2012-01-30

    Russia-EU relationship - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia-EU relationship

    Post  flamming_python Sat Oct 08, 2022 3:43 am

    ALAMO wrote:Are you really going to discuss this trolling and turn on a rage about that? Laughing
    Seems that some of you succeeded with the mission of finding a child inside ... Laughing Laughing

    They had way more people turning up in the centre of Prague for an anti-EU protest not long ago

    The Western media should rather worry about that, than the latest state-sponsored Russophobe manifestation attended to by a mere 13k

    GarryB, kvs, ALAMO and Hole like this post

    avatar
    ALAMO


    Posts : 3916
    Points : 3918
    Join date : 2014-11-25

    Russia-EU relationship - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia-EU relationship

    Post  ALAMO Sat Oct 08, 2022 6:52 am

    And that is the point.
    Europe is boiling now, so the whole action is rather pathetic.
    It goes viral in most Russophobic countries, and will die as any "mass viral action".
    Who fuels that is rather obvious, so there is nothing to talk about in reality.
    We can only laugh about the common stupidity of "facebook users" and how easy it is to push them for doing stupid things.
    The ice bucket challenge will be next, as the winter is around the corner.

    flamming_python and Hole like this post

    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 12036
    Points : 12163
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    Russia-EU relationship - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia-EU relationship

    Post  JohninMK Sun Jan 08, 2023 2:43 pm

    I think that as this year unfolds that there will be more comments in this vein. This one is from MoA

    digital dinosaur @ 140 "According to some the SMO did not affect Germany's economy anywhere near as much as others prophesied... I think I will wait just a little bit longer..."

    Don't bother setting a date, it doesn't work that way. It's like when someone goes bankrupt - little by little, then all at once. It's not a linear process, in the initial phase you don't even notice. You see it all the time with retail stores, everything seems fine till the very last minute, rarely clues given, then one day you walk by and the windows are papered over.

    Reasonably priced Russian energy and resources tied to long term contracts is what allowed the EU to be competitive with the rise of Asia, all the while keeping the high living standards and social benefits established during the miracle growth years of the post war boom, which incidentally the USA had allowed so as to keep the internal and external commies at bay during the cold war.

    Europe for a while was given by its overlord all the benefits of capitalism and all the benefits of socialism. That's over now, was over progressively with the fall of the USSR, neo-liberalism, and the creation of the structurally anti-democratic Euro monetary system. Only thing that perpetuated "la dolce vita" was cheap Russian energy, and very likely the reason Europe didn't degrade into a giant fentanyl homeless camp like the USA over the last 40 years.

    Europe will find other energy suppliers and develop alternatives but it won't be cheap. Remember you don't have to loose all your income to go broke, just a critical percentage, often small. Once you loose your profit margin you are working for nothing, once you go below that you are paying to work, in arrears, in other words broke. The added cost of energy could be more than enough to bankrupt Europe.

    Germany seems debt free only because of its huge euro cash flow, Target 2 surplus imbalance, illegal at that given EMS constraints. Deutsche Bank alone has enough derivative exposure buried away from 2008, too big to bail, to take out the entire German economy 1929 style, and then some. In addition to a eurozone trade surplus Germany has a huge commercial and retail economy that provides the cash flow to maintain the shadow banking system financialized bubble scam. But, we are talking very small margins here, just a few percentage points in arrears can tip the whole thing over. Once Main Street misses a few payments, poof.

    The UK went quietly bankrupt during the Truss weeks, it couldn't get anyone to buy its gilts. Japan is also likely bankrupt, it can't get anyone to buy its yen. Canada real estate just did the Big Short, again, twice in not even 20 years, its big banks are likely busted.

    The whole thing is more bankrupt now than 2008, it's a 20 year compounding failure, only this time they aren't putting it in the headlines and letting you know. Keeping the next big crash secret was what the fraudulent Dodd-Frank "reform" was all about. System has already crashed they are just not telling you.

    Have patience but don't be too enthusiastic, it's the little guy that will get pounded not the elites.

    Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 8 2023 10:18 utc | 155

    GarryB, flamming_python, lancelot and Broski like this post


    Sponsored content


    Russia-EU relationship - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia-EU relationship

    Post  Sponsored content


      Current date/time is Fri Jan 27, 2023 6:51 pm