nomadski wrote:It does not matter, who started it. There is an unresolved situation. Karabag, is not the only area that Armenia has taken from Azeri control. They made advances elsewhere too. Iran said, they will not tolerate war in region. Russia needs to stop giving support to Armenia, when it advances against Azeris. Iran may have to come in and clean the entire area. Push back invading Armenians. Turks. And ISIS scumbags. Azerbaijan is not Russian territory. And Russia clearly and unfairly favours Armenia expansion. Iran will not be happy with that. Since Azeris are essentially Iranian, not Turks. So save your 1000 lbs bombs.........
This whole situation is related to geopolitics, pipeline politics and NATO expansion
In the late 80s/early 90s Armenian nationalism peaked. Probably they would have gone over to NATO long ago but see this situation happened in Nagorno-Karabakh. Which I'm not saying was Moscow's doing in and of itself. Armenians there were always pretty miserable due to Azeri rule in the Soviet era that treated them as 2nd class citizens; and the Armenian national intelligencia started organizing all these marches in the region in the late 80s all by itself; the same intelligencia was fiercely anti-Soviet and wanted independence from the USSR, and in short order got it.
The Azeris never had any problems being part of the USSR and weren't particularly nationalist; only in the early 90s due to the whole Nagorny-Karabakh situation as well as Moscow's attempts to reassert control in Baku which led to innocents dying - pushed the country towards an anti-Russian position, but even then not for long.
NATO (Turkey) has been sowing instability and trying to wrest the whole region from Russian influence for a while. The covert support for Chechen rebels, the revolution in Georgia and all sorts of promises to the Armenians. The big prize remains Azerbaijan; as that means instant access to Central Asia and all their oil and gas fields - which are at the moment selling to Russia for quite below market value.
The trouble for Turkey, is that there is no Turkic road to Azerbaijan so to speak. Only through Georgia - but the Georgians, regardless of their differences with Russia over Abkhazia and S. Ossetia, are fickle Turkophobes and always have been. There is the Azeri exclave of Nakhivchan, which is linked to Turkey, but not linked to Azerbaijan.
The newly formed 'Turkic Council' is also a factor, I remember in an interview one of their representatives said, that Armenia's southern territories were granted to it by Stalin and that it should hand them over to Azerbaijan. Which would conveniently link Turkey, Azerbaijan and the whole Caspian region. But I don't know how much of a factor this organization is, whether the plan really is to take a bit of Armenia proper, and how seriously the Azeris are into this stuff. My understanding is not much, Azeris only really care about getting Nagorny-Karabakh and the other territories back, and otherwise prioritize ties with Moscow.
If Russia gives Armenia up by refusing to aid it in Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia will quickly go over to NATO. This is not a situation that Iran will tolerate either, FYI. Neither any sort of land-swap whereby Armenia gives up its southern territory in exchange for Nagorny-Karabakh; as that would immediately cut off Iran from Armenia, guarantee Armenia going over to NATO, and in fact encircle Iran with NATO.
Make no mistake, Iran is covertly favouring Armenia as well in this stand-off. Especially given Azeri nationalism in north Iran and Azerbaijan's co-operation with Israel
On the whole this whole thing is a supreme shitshow and I don't even know how it's possible to resolve it. Only if Turkey somehow becomes a Russian ally and leaves NATO; but for that Russia's politics would have to change as well. I doubt Russia would be interested in Turkish influence over Central Asia and its own Turkic peoples - so probably scratch this option as well.