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    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:17 am

    Isos wrote:
    JohninMK wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:

    Once Armenia hits Azerbaijan with an Iskander, I think both Turkey and Azerbaijan will cool down.

    Out of curiosity, if anyone here were i/c of targeting for that Iskander where would you send it and why there?

    An s-300 or the fighter jets. Turkey still maintains some f-16 in Azerbaijan since their exercices there. Azeri have ~12 mig-29. No air power abd they loose.

    MoD is a valuable target but must be empty. No tactical gain by destroying it.

    Azerbaijan has also an oil industry that would greatly affect their economy.

    Mike and Maximmmm went for the F-16 base as well. Turkey can only get NATO involved if they are attacked and if NATO countries want to help.

    I think it will depend on the objective, military or economic destruction or just sending a message, perhaps just to be seen by a limited audience. The target should not create an international storm or pull Turkey's lead too hard and definitely not kill civilians. Plus it needs to help stop the fighting not increase it. A fist in a velvet glove so to speak.

    As a military target the airfield would meet some objectives but without knowing how hardened it is its difficult to know where, apart from the center of the runway, a presumably hardened aircraft shelter or munitions or fuel dumps. An empty MoD building in the middle of the night might be good as well.

    Perhaps the most effective target in encouraging peace would be an economic target like a pipeline pumping station in the middle of nowhere, especially if on a feeder pipeline (perhaps even not in use as this is all about sending a message) not the main export pipeline. At this time of year, heading into winter, this would send a particulary strong message and would quickly attract the attention of all the customers downstream to apply pressure for a settlement. In particular Turkey who would immediately see that they were vulnerable both in terms of their own gas supplies and transit revenue.

    It would probably also be pretty clear to Turkey's MoD that there was no way they could stop the next Iskander(s) going straight into the main export pipeline. That pipeline is Azerbaijan's financial lifeline or jugular, its weakest link now and in the future. Armenia has no equivalent target. Wars are best won off the battlefield.
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:23 am

    Well, Armenia isn't short of missiles. So it doesn't have to hit just one target.

    And an Iskander will destroy some hardened hangers easily, where the f-16's would be.

    But due to all this lack of evidence and what not, it isn't smart to act up yet. Hence why Armenia isn't asking for Russia's aid. Because I think their bluff was called.

    Russia has invited both leaders on national TV and we'll, Azerbaijan also made good points.

    So we will see.
    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:30 am

    Maximmmm wrote:
    Isos wrote:
    JohninMK wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:

    Once Armenia hits Azerbaijan with an Iskander, I think both Turkey and Azerbaijan will cool down.

    Out of curiosity, if anyone here were i/c of targeting for that Iskander where would you send it and why there?

    An s-300 or the fighter jets. Turkey still maintains some f-16 in Azerbaijan since their exercices there. Azeri have ~12 mig-29. No air power abd they loose.

    MoD is a valuable target but must be empty. No tactical gain by destroying it.

    Azerbaijan has also an oil industry that would greatly affect their economy.

    Their iskander, a part of them, is from russian stocks and missiles too. They can even strike deep in Turkey if they need to.

    Yup I second that, striking air bases is always a good bet in this day and age, especially considering their reserves drone-wise are only so big.

    For the alliance stuff, I'm not sure how article 5 works if your troops are attacked on a mission that isn't NATO approved ("formally" at least) on foreign soil.

    That would not trigger article five, Article five requires you are attacked on your home soil.

    etc Turkish troops getting bombed outside of Turkey wouldn't qualify but turkish troops being attacked while in Turkey or anything inside of its boaders would.
    Isos
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    Post  Isos Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:45 am

    France and Germany won't be in hurry to save Erdogan anyway.

    Another thing they could do is fly their 4 su-30SM in Russia to keep them away from ground attack UAV or rockets. Provide russian protection but also still threaten Azeri and Turks from Russia which shares a border with Azer.

    In Armenia they are quite exposed.
    medo
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    Post  medo Thu Oct 01, 2020 1:12 am

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    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 6 47506911

    Azerbaijani Harop suicide drones destroy 2 Armenian wooden fake Osa systems. Armenian use a lot of fake targets like a destroyed truck, which represent Repelent ECM complex. Azerbaijan already running out of drones and they start sending transport planes to Israel for new ones. Azerbaijan really use drones in big numbers to overload Armenian air defense and run out of them in four days.

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    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Thu Oct 01, 2020 1:42 am

    https://eurasianet.org/armenians-and-azerbaijanis-are-called-to-war

    https://www.ng.ru/news/691177.html?print=Y

    https://iz.ru/1067750/2020-10-01/armeniia-pokazala-peremeshchenie-v-karabakhe-istrebitelei-f-16-vvs-turtcii

    https://regnum.ru/news/polit/3077673.html

    https://regnum.ru/news/polit/3078273.html

    Iran can support Armenia against Baku & Turkish forces. Russia may even ask Iran to use its missiles on Azeri AF/N bases before she comes as a peacemaker. Armenia, RF & Iran may also start supporting/using the Kurds in/of Syria, Iraq & Turkey. Much earlier Greater Armenia had access to the Black Sea & Russia/Iran/France could help revive/create her navy (it could train on lake Sevan) to put more pressure on Turkey & Azerbaijan in the Black & Caspian seas respectively.


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:34 am; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : add link)
    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon Thu Oct 01, 2020 1:54 am

    Regular wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:I'm certain Armenia was given advance notice that they would be facing lots of drones.  So where are their AD? How bout electronic warfare? Russia has made so many anti drone systems from experience in Syria, how come Armenia hasn't adopted them?
    Probably money for that lined up someone's pocket, only sane explanation. I don't think they are prepared, unlike the other bunch. Hmm, maybe time to use iskanders and hit the infrastructure of Azerbaijan just to calm them down?

    Armenia used Tochka missile yesterday which is seen as quite an escalation, Iskander is their version of ultimate retribution but threshold isn't reached yet.
    Similar to how we had option of chemical weapons back​ in '99 (we still do actually) but our threshold was even higher, as in it would require a total genocide, Armenian threshold is much lower in comparison but it still has ways to go before it's in play




    JohninMK wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:Once Armenia hits Azerbaijan with an Iskander, I think both Turkey and Azerbaijan will cool down.
    Out of curiosity, if anyone here were i/c of targeting for that Iskander where would you send it and why there?

    That's easy: Azeri petroleum fields and production and processing facilities

    That's their entire economy and bedrock of their current government, if that goes the whole country in it's current form goes with it

    It would also set (metaphorical and literal) fire to the whole region so that's why they are still sitting on it


    zorobabel
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    Post  zorobabel Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:10 am

    From the videos I've seen over the last few days, I think both sides are taking heavy casualties. Armenia-Artsakh has very good traditional defense lines, and Azerbaijan has nasty killer drones that keep hitting trucks full of infantry. Seems like it's only going to get nastier.

    Armenia knew they were a bad threat based on the 2018 attack. Seems like utter incompetence on their part.

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    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Thu Oct 01, 2020 6:49 am

    @KVS

    There is no doubt that, there are a large number of refugees. People without their original homes and land. They all have a right of return. But they can not live side by side. So some have to be moved out of areas, they are a minority. To allow homogenous populations. Military recapture, especially of lost territory, will not allow separation of populations. Is futile.

    @ Mike the terrible

    Further fighting by both sides, and threatening vital interests of both nations, will only intensify their insecurity. Bring in outside forces into conflict.

    @ George1

    I see no problems in Iran or Russia helping stabalize the front. By defensive measures. Including supply of extra jet fighters, if outside powers, disturb the military ballance. Like Syria, no attack on NATO country. Just engage their fighters on home turf.

    @ Medo

    Can Russia supply Armenia by air?  More AD system against Usrael drone supply?   If Iran is neutral, as I think it should be. Then neutrality, I think means, not allowing an advantage for either side. This means intercepting supply planes from Usrael, to Azer, over caspian. And allowing AD supply to Armenia, by border. Neutrality does not mean inaction. It means denying equally, offensive capability of both belligerents.
    lyle6
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    Post  lyle6 Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:34 am

    zorobabel wrote:From the videos I've seen over the last few days, I think both sides are taking heavy casualties. Armenia-Artsakh has very good traditional defense lines, and Azerbaijan has nasty killer drones that keep hitting trucks full of infantry. Seems like it's only going to get nastier.

    Armenia knew they were a bad threat based on the 2018 attack. Seems like utter incompetence on their part.

    You're being too harsh. Armenia is a country of modest means while Artsakh is dirt-poor from decades of having to maintain a constant state of military readiness. Whatever modern equipment they could get, they always have to prioritize Armenia proper, and Artsakh would have to make do with vintage hand-me-downs. In any case, they are able to limit the advantage of airpower using the prescribed TTPs and that's probably the only reason why they haven't been routed en masse from their positions. Still untenable in the long run, and Armenia could only really rely on the Russians supplying them with what they need if they ever hope to retain Artsakh.

    Meanwhile Azeris can't even fight their way out of a wet paper bag despite preparing years for this conflict they instigated. Billions of dollars in military hardware buying overwhelming firepower superiority and they're still banging their heads against the same dirt wall. They are losing scores of troops and tons of military equipment attacking Armenian positions with nothing to show for it. Whatever they are doing, competent soldiering this is not.

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    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:50 am

    Like others said. If worst comes to worst, a couple tochkas at Azeri oil refineries and that's it. Watch Azerbaijan economy collapse. Turkey can't afford to upkeep them as they barely can afford to upkeep themselves without raising interest rates through the roof.
    The Ottoman
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    Post  The Ottoman Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:01 am

    Why should Russia attack Turkey?

    Turkey is not militairy involved - only diplomaticly and logisticly, but that's Russia also. Lot of videos from the Iranian border with Russian trucks to Armenia.

    I dont understand why it is very normal when Armenia get suppport from Russia, US (Biden, Armenian Lobby, Pompeo, Senators), France (Macron, Armenian Lobby), Iran and others, BUT it is a 'scandal' and 'very dangerous' when Turkey supports Azerbaijan?

    Azerbaijan has legitim arguments based on UN-resolutions (like Sergei Lavrov said) to liberate Nagorno Karabach, no matter what Armenia or the world thinks.

    Nobody attacks Armenia and there is no proof of Turkish militairy involvement otherwise it was shown already.

    For 30 years now Russia, France and US couldnt solve this problem, but when Azerbaijan tries to liberate it, everyone is calling for a ceasefire.

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    Isos
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    Post  Isos Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:11 pm

    Azerbaijan and Armenia are more or less equal militarly. They can't liberate it alone. It will just make hundreds of dead for a land with no value and full of Armenians.

    The best they should do is cut that territory in two so that everyone is happy and stop trusting blindly their allies. No russian/nato people and no turks are dying there and won't die.

    Azerbaijan is just fine without that territory anyway. They are quite rich with gaz and have access to the sea.

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    medo
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    Post  medo Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:30 pm

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    Artzakh today shot down 3 Azerbaijani helicopters, one of them fall on Iranian territory. There are some info, that Iran shot down 1 Azerbaijani fighter plane, which was in Iranian air space. Iran already shot down 2 Azerbaijani drones and ammasing military on Azerbaijani border. Iran clearly said, that they will not allow to form terrorist hub on their northern border. Russia is also amassing military on Azerbaijani border. Turkish terrorist from Syria and Libya are big security treats for both Iran and Russia. Azerbaijani and Turkish attacks on Armenian teritory will be good pretext for their military intervention against Azerbaijan.

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    Isos
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    Post  Isos Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:56 pm

    Azerbaijani and Turkish attacks on Armenian teritory will be good pretext for their military intervention against Azerbaijan.

    They also pay syrian. alquaida guys to come there. That can also be used as a reason.
    The Ottoman
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    Post  The Ottoman Thu Oct 01, 2020 1:02 pm



    That drone was way to slow.
    The Ottoman
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    Post  The Ottoman Thu Oct 01, 2020 1:28 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:Like others said. If worst comes to worst, a couple tochkas at Azeri oil refineries and that's it. Watch Azerbaijan economy collapse. Turkey can't afford to upkeep them as they barely can afford to upkeep themselves without raising interest rates through the roof.

    Dont worry about Turkey's economic position. Turkey is upkeeping South-Cyprus, Azerbaljan, Bosnia, Palestine, Kosovo and Somalia with investments and aid for years now. And they are involved in Libya, Syria and Irak with manpower and material.

    If Russia would do this, it was collapsed already.
    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Thu Oct 01, 2020 3:41 pm

    The Ottoman wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:Like others said. If worst comes to worst, a couple tochkas at Azeri oil refineries and that's it. Watch Azerbaijan economy collapse. Turkey can't afford to upkeep them as they barely can afford to upkeep themselves without raising interest rates through the roof.

    Dont worry about Turkey's economic position. Turkey is upkeeping South-Cyprus, Azerbaljan, Bosnia, Palestine, Kosovo and Somalia with investments and aid for years now. And they are involved in Libya, Syria and Irak with manpower and material.

    If Russia would do this, it was collapsed already.

    What ever makes you think Russia will collapse?

    Erdogan's Turkey is just another soap bubble being supported by the US for use against Russia and expansion into Central Asia. Same how Poland and Lithuania are used for expanding into Belarus and Ukraine.\
    Same story as how Britain and France supported the Ottomans in the 19th century against Russia.

    Micron of France is acting as the minder for the globalists, by placating Greece and Armenia with hot air and fake offers of support

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    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Thu Oct 01, 2020 3:43 pm

    The Ottoman wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:Like others said. If worst comes to worst, a couple tochkas at Azeri oil refineries and that's it. Watch Azerbaijan economy collapse. Turkey can't afford to upkeep them as they barely can afford to upkeep themselves without raising interest rates through the roof.

    Dont worry about Turkey's economic position. Turkey is upkeeping South-Cyprus, Azerbaljan, Bosnia, Palestine, Kosovo and Somalia with investments and aid for years now. And they are involved in Libya, Syria and Irak with manpower and material.

    If Russia would do this, it was collapsed already.

    Basic economic figures state you are wrong.

    Sorry, Turkey is poor and broke.

    But do go on with fantasy while I use a system that Muslims once used before they were inbreeding called "Math"
    Maximmmm
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    Post  Maximmmm Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:56 pm

    Today seemed to be more about political posturing than anything else.
    We saw the joint US_France-Russia statement calling for peace and of course the Turkish rebuttal, there's the typical mud-slinging at the Armenian-Azeri level as well.

    Thinking about it from a different perspective, maybe if this keeps going for a bit the west can finally be distracted from Navalny, Belarus and Nord-Stream2. Maybe we can even get around to restarting the construction of the final stretch while this goes on.

    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:57 pm

    So it's safe to say at this stage Russia will not help in Karabakh via military action even if asked, not even the Russians recognize the disputed region as being part of Armenia, there for CSTO is under no obligation to act and Russia doesn't want to throw in.
    Isos
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    Post  Isos Thu Oct 01, 2020 5:34 pm

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:So it's safe to say at this stage Russia will not help in Karabakh via military action even if asked, not even the Russians recognize the disputed region as being part of Armenia, there for CSTO is under no obligation to act and Russia doesn't want to throw in.

    They have an agreement of mutual help. NK isn't part of that but if Azerbaijan hits directly Armenian territory then they can ask for russian help.

    Putin doesn't want a war there but if azeri push too much they can face russians loose too much.
    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Thu Oct 01, 2020 5:46 pm

    Isos wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:So it's safe to say at this stage Russia will not help in Karabakh via military action even if asked, not even the Russians recognize the disputed region as being part of Armenia, there for CSTO is under no obligation to act and Russia doesn't want to throw in.

    They have an agreement of mutual help. NK isn't part of that but if Azerbaijan hits directly Armenian territory then they can ask for russian help.

    Putin doesn't want a war there but if azeri push too much they can face russians  loose too much.

    Uncorrect and correct.

    CSTO requires you to be attacked on your home soil, Since not even Russia considers the land in question part of Armenia formally. CSTO would not have to act in any military mnner if request.

    Long as Azerbaijan only attacks the disputed region, Russia isn't required to act.

    The only part you are correct on is IF they attack land Russia considers to be part of Armenia that it will be forced into action.
    lyle6
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    Post  lyle6 Thu Oct 01, 2020 6:14 pm

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    Uncorrect and correct.

    CSTO requires you to be attacked on your home soil, Since not even Russia considers the land in question part of Armenia formally. CSTO would not have to act in any military mnner if request.

    Long as Azerbaijan only attacks the disputed region, Russia isn't required to act.

    The only part you are correct on is IF they attack land Russia considers to be part of Armenia that it will be forced into action.
    Half of Artsakh including the capital Stepanakert is within artillery range from Armenia. The Azeris simply can't advance if those guns can shoot with impunity. But retaliating would involve attacking Armenian soil - just exactly the excuse the Russians need. Ditto for its BMs and heavy rocket artillery.

    You are being illogical. Russia risks losing Armenia as an ally and the CSTO framework if they allow the Azeris to capture Karabakh without firing a single Russian bullet, and all for what? The possibility that maybe the Azeris might align with the Russians somehow? That's delusional.

    Sorry but there's no end state where the Azeris and Turks come out on top. Just in dead bodies and debt.

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    zorobabel
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    Post  zorobabel Thu Oct 01, 2020 6:22 pm

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    Isos wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:So it's safe to say at this stage Russia will not help in Karabakh via military action even if asked, not even the Russians recognize the disputed region as being part of Armenia, there for CSTO is under no obligation to act and Russia doesn't want to throw in.

    They have an agreement of mutual help. NK isn't part of that but if Azerbaijan hits directly Armenian territory then they can ask for russian help.

    Putin doesn't want a war there but if azeri push too much they can face russians  loose too much.

    Uncorrect and correct.

    CSTO requires you to be attacked on your home soil, Since not even Russia considers the land in question part of Armenia formally. CSTO would not have to act in any military mnner if request.

    Long as Azerbaijan only attacks the disputed region, Russia isn't required to act.

    The only part you are correct on is IF they attack land Russia considers to be part of Armenia that it will be forced into action.
    Doesn't seem like it. There is confirmed shelling of Verdenis-Sotk highway in Armenia.

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