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    Russian Economy General News: #11

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:44 pm

    But the idea of this extra tax is to take a little more money from people who are already earning a lot.... taking money from people who can afford it in other words.

    A rich person would call this devil worship... they claim rich people spend money so poor people must end up getting some... the so called trickle down effect, but in reality most of the time the only way to get blood out of a stone is with tax because voluntary contributions are few and far between...
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    Post  Arrow on Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:47 pm

    What effects would the Russian economy have if the West cut them off from SWIFT?
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    Post  calripson on Sun Jul 12, 2020 4:42 pm

    Arrow wrote:What effects would the Russian economy have if the West cut them off from SWIFT?

    A question they should be asking because that is exactly what will happen post-November if senile old Joe Biden wins and the Democrats sweep the House and Senate.
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    Post  kvs on Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:09 pm

    calripson wrote:
    Arrow wrote:What effects would the Russian economy have if the West cut them off from SWIFT?

    A question they should be asking because that is exactly what will happen post-November if senile old Joe Biden wins and the Democrats sweep the House and Senate.

    Russia has already established a SWIFT alternative that is linked to China, Iran and others who want it. Cutting of SWIFT only
    matters for transactions with the west. And thanks to western sanctions, Russia has no longer any need for western banking
    (i.e. financing) so SWIFT is basically irrelevant.

    That goes for any imports since Russia has seen stellar success in its import substitution efforts. So, once again, the west will
    only slice off its own testicles with any cutting off of SWIFT. Better wake up and smell the coffee instead of wallowing in
    wishful thinking like Obama.

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    Post  GarryB on Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:15 am

    If they had cut Russia off in the 1990s... especially under Yeltsen it would have been devastating, but things were so bad at the time it would have seriously slowed recovery times, but it has been threatened several times so they have taken measures to ensure if it does stop that things keep going.

    SWIFT is fast and easy which is why it is probably still used to an extent, but at the end of the day cutting it off will prevent western companies and individuals from making money in Russia... and there seems to be more going on there than in most western countries in terms of opportunities to make money.

    Honestly my response would be go ahead... do it... most members of SWIFT don't want Russia or China cut out because there is money to be made there, and they don't give a shit about Americas little feud with Russia and China...

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    Post  nero on Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:12 am

    Arrow wrote:What effects would the Russian economy have if the West cut them off from SWIFT?

    The Germans are going to be mighty pissed as they won't have an easy avenue to trade with Russia anymore.

    Russia can survive without cash. Industrial countries like Germany cannot survive without resources. If Russia does not sell, they still have the resources to use locally.

    It was mutually beneficial to sell gas to the EU due to the huge amount of reserves that Russia has. It is no longer economically required though as China will eat up any possible glut of energy resources you'll throw at em.
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    Post  Big_Gazza on Thu Jul 30, 2020 2:46 am

    Russia & China speed up de-dollarization process: most trade no longer conducted in greenbacks

    source

    After years of talking about abandoning the US dollar, Russia and China are doing it for real. In the first quarter of 2020, the share of the dollar in trade between the countries fell below 50 percent for the first time.
    To give an indication of the scale of the adjustment, just four years ago the greenback accounted for over 90 percent of their currency settlements.

    According to Moscow daily Izvestia, the share has dropped to 46 percent, tumbling from 75 percent in 2018. The 54 percent of non-dollar trade is made up of Chinese yuan (17 percent), the euro (30 percent), and the Russian ruble (7 percent).

    The dollar's reduced role in international trade can mainly be blamed on the ongoing trade war between the US and China. Relations between the two countries have deteriorated even further in 2020, after US politicians accused Beijing of hiding the severity of Covid-19 and President Donald Trump called disease the "China Virus" and "Kung Flu."

    In January, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov explained that Moscow is continuing "its policy aimed at gradual de-dollarization" and is looking to make deals in local currencies, where possible.

    Lavrov called the rejection of the greenback "an objective response to the unpredictability of US economic policy and the outright abuse by Washington of the dollar's status as a world reserve currency."

    Movement away from the dollar can also be seen in Russia's trade with other parts of the world, such as the European Union. Since 2016, trade between Moscow and the bloc has been mainly in Euros, with its current share sitting at 46 percent.

    I could not be happier with this news!  Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy   The way to burn the Uh'murikkkanz and end their disgracefully criminal tenure as Global Hegemon is to torpedo the greenback so that they cannot simply run the printing presses to settle their accounts.  Once the US is forced to trade fairly to earn foreign currencies to pay for their imports the curtain will fall away and the shoddiness of the US system will be laid bare for all to see.  

    It couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch of murderous thieves and scum. Twisted Evil

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    Post  kvs on Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:57 pm



    (Youtube is harassing PolitRussia by demonetizing it and eventually likely shutting it down. PolitRussia is using another Youtube
    account to put out its analysis videos, but the thought police will eventually shut that down too.)

    Russia has increased exports of meat (chicken, pork, beef) by over 100% in one year. China accounts for about half
    of the export market and Russia is displacing the US as one of China's largest sources. Even Ukraine is increasing
    imports (discounting Donetsk and Lugansk) since it is failing on every economic front. Not only is it de-industrializing,
    its vaunted agrarian potential is failing to materialize.

    Chinese demand will expand Russian meat production. This is a major achievement compared to the USSR. The USSR
    had serious issues with meat production. The 1990s saw a collapse of consumption, but thanks to the 2014 NATzO sanctions
    on Russia, the counter-sanction policy of Putin has been brilliant. It managed to fix the structural faults created by the
    Yeltsin regime during the 1990s and revived domestic meat production. To the point that Russia is now becoming a serious
    exporter.

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    Post  kvs on Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:32 pm



    Russia has transitioned from an importer of polymer goods to a producer. Thanks to the absurd economic distortions introduced
    by Yeltsin's regime and a stupid tax policy that did not discount taxes on raw inputs, Russia was exporting raw inputs to the west
    and then importing value added production. So Russia was feeding the west. Now Russia has not only dramatically reduced imports
    of critical polymers (polypropylene and polyethylene) but has developed an export capacity.

    In spite of all the problems, the key is that the vector of development is in the right direction. Stupid tax policies and economic
    limitations in Russia are coming down. That has NATzO's panties in a bunch. They are seeing that the plan for Russia to
    fall apart has totally failed and now they are scrambling to establish an new cold war of "containment". But this time around
    they have to "contain" economic hyperpower China. China and Russia together can and will outweigh NATzO. The developing
    world is also gaining more and more autonomy as their banana republic status fades and more wealth is generated internally.
    This is a long term process, but a looming crisis for the imperialist collective known as NATzO. The good old days of colonial
    rackets are coming to an end.





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    Post  Hole on Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:45 pm

    In a few month the Nazis in Kiev will stop the purchase of russian goods (or be forced to by their masters in Washington) and then they will blame Russia for a new "Holdomor".
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    Post  kvs on Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:01 pm

    Hole wrote:In a few month the Nazis in Kiev will stop the purchase of russian goods (or be forced to by their masters in Washington) and then they will blame Russia for a new "Holdomor".

    Sadly you are right. Delusional people will concoct all sorts of BS rationalizations to justify their delusions. I recall reading a comment in a
    mail to the editor in a Canadian newspaper where the writer claimed that Ukrainian villages were starving while Russian villages were well
    fed during the Holodomor in Ukraine. This is pure concocted fiction and not even one of the BS "facts" spread by the Holodomor hoaxers.

    In modern times the analogue of the above will be that Donetsk and Lugansk were well fed while the rest of Ukraine starved.

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    Post  kvs on Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:25 pm

    https://www.awaragroup.com/blog/russia-vs-america-real-income-comparison/

    I don't think the above was posted, but apologies if it was.

    We compared salaries between Chicago, Illinois and Moscow, Russia. (Tax rates vary between US states, but they are the same all over Russia, so we could have settled for any Russian city, but Moscow provides a particularly good comparison with Chicago.) We made the amazing finding that the Moscow average monthly salary equal to $1,600 (annual $19,200) gives the same purchasing power as a monthly salary of $6,000 in Chicago (annual $72,000). Meaning, you live in Moscow (at least) as well for $1,600 as you live in Chicago for $6,000.

    Note that the average nominal dollar income in Russia was $800 per month in 2019.   So the Moscow average is only twice as high.
    So that would mean that the effective mean income in Russia is $36,000 US dollars per year.   The mean personal income in the
    USA is just over $50,000 per year.   Clearly Russia is not quite there yet, but it is not that much poorer.   Russia also isn't an
    economically homogeneous country like the USA.   There are whole regions which have culturally determined characteristics
    such as Siberia, where the aboriginals have republics and have not abandoned their way of life completely.   So they may have
    low incomes, but are not paupers.

    The article has a load of BS denier posts below it. The average Moscow City income was 100,000 rubles per month in 2018:

    https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/04/10/half-of-russians-say-theyll-never-live-to-see-a-decent-salary-survey-a65173

    But it was 3/5 of 2020 in 2013:

    https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/wages

    The ruble to dollar exchange in 2013 was about 32 to 1. It has been about over 70 to 1 in 2020. So the exchange rate
    is a BS measure of wealth. People's standard of living in Moscow did not fall between 2013 and 2020 aside from recession
    blips. Real (inflation adjusted) incomes have increased. In order to use the exchange rate, Moscow residents would need
    to earn over 120,000 rubles per month in 2020 to be at the 2013 level. Accounting for the over 5% annual real income growth
    the ruble amount should be 1.4 times higher or about 168,850 rubles.

    The Awara group income numbers for Russia should be scaled:

    $800 -> $1000
    $1600 -> $2000

    However, their analysis is still valid.


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    Post  kvs on Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:57 pm

    The above denier BS which tries to use exchange rates to judge the wealth or Russians brings up the following facts:

    1) Regardless of Russia's export profile, it is one of the top countries in the world with the least amount of import dependence
    on a wide spectrum of goods and services. Poland is one of those countries, but that is thanks to the fact that Germany
    has opened up a whole slew of branch plants. Such investment is very marginal in Russia. By contrast, China has been built up
    through the offshoring efforts of the rich world.

    2) Russians earn rubles and not dollars. So a 50% exchange rate drop does not make them twice as poor. This is thanks to
    the fact that a 50% exchange rate drop does not produce a 100% increase in prices. Russia has had an inflation under
    6% for the last 7 years and that includes the early 2015 recession associated with the ruble forex drop shock.

    The average western reporting on Russia utterly fails to account for such facts. This feeds the consumer lemmings
    the BS delusion that Russia has been wreaked by sanctions and low oil prices.

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    Post  Hole on Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:48 am

    Think of Russia as being like the west in the 50´s/60´s. Back then you could buy a house for 10.000 bucks (and most people could do it with their savings), for the same house you would pay 250.000$ today.

    If the average russian would be so poor, Russians wouldn´t be the largest tourist group in Turkey, Egypt, Thailand and some other places.

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    Post  miketheterrible on Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:24 pm

    Hole wrote:Think of Russia as being like the west in the 50´s/60´s. Back then you could buy a house for 10.000 bucks (and most people could do it with their savings), for the same house you would pay 250.000$ today.

    If the average russian would be so poor, Russians wouldn´t be the largest tourist group in Turkey, Egypt, Thailand and some other places.

    That's the thing, something that escapes most people. People on average believe that if the house costs $300,000 then it is clearly better quality and everything else than a house in Russia for $100,000. Which is outright false. Or cost of a vehicle, etc etc.

    Yes, russians are one of the largest tourist groups. They also spend more money on vacation homes, something most Canadians can't spend. When my parents purchased a vacation home in British Columbia, I was shocked. A dacha not far outside of St.petersburg is about $5 - 10 thousand. It's cheap.
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    Post  kvs on Wed Aug 05, 2020 6:42 pm



    Russia is tearing up the double taxation treaty with Cyprus. It tried to negotiate a deal where tricks such as using dividends
    to avoid taxes in Russia would be stopped but the Cyprus government did not yield on the current scheme which is very lucrative
    for it.

    The racket is to operate plants in Russia by owners registered as citizens of Cyprus. The current taxation treaty allows such
    rackets to divert Russian revenues into offshore dividend transfers which are not taxed by Russia (and not by Cyprus either).
    The days of such rackets are coming to an end.

    Cyprus dug its own grave. All the Russian money parked there will flee since it is no longer an offshore tax heaven. Sure
    some deposits will remain in Cyprus banks but the main money is in offshoring rackets.

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    Post  Hole on Wed Aug 05, 2020 9:46 pm

    If Cyprus wants to benefit from russian money it should leave the EU and join the EEU.
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    Post  Cyberspec on Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:05 pm

    kvs wrote:Russia is tearing up the double taxation treaty with Cyprus.  

    Great news....should've done this years ago
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    Post  Big_Gazza on Thu Aug 06, 2020 3:04 am

    kvs wrote:The above denier BS which tries to use exchange rates to judge the wealth or Russians brings up the following facts:

    1) Regardless of Russia's export profile, it is one of the top countries in the world with the least amount of import dependence
    on a wide spectrum of goods and services.   Poland is one of those countries, but that is thanks to the fact that Germany
    has opened up a whole slew of branch plants.   Such investment is very marginal in Russia.   By contrast, China has been built up
    through the offshoring efforts of the rich world.

    2) Russians earn rubles and not dollars.   So a 50% exchange rate drop does not make them twice as poor.   This is thanks to
    the fact that a 50% exchange rate drop does not produce a 100% increase in prices.   Russia has had an inflation under
    6% for the last 7 years and that includes the early 2015 recession associated with the ruble forex drop shock.  

    The average western reporting on Russia utterly fails to account for such facts.   This feeds the consumer lemmings
    the BS delusion that Russia has been wreaked by sanctions and low oil prices.  


    Screw the lemmings, and we should be happy that these clowns are blind-siding themselves by refusing to acknowledge reality. Their endless and spiteful malfeasence against Russia (and now China) is doing what no amount of Russian/Chinese government domestic "propaganda" could do - convinvce the average man/woman in the street that the West hates them and cannot be trusted. Their arrogance and exceptionalism will result in them sitting still and indulging in counter-productive behaviour while Eurasia catches up and surpasses them in real terms. The look on their collective dumb bovine faces when the SHTF and the inevitable geopolitical-economic tectonic shift really gathers pace will be just... fucking.... PRICELESS! I look forward to the bloodbath on MSM talk shows when the fools turn on each other and demand to know "Who lost Russia ver 2.0?" Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing

    I also look forward to the post-crash period and being able to buy up worthless Weimar-republic USD by the kilo and using them as heating fuel or toilet paper. Maybe I will buy an American or two if i can figure out a worthwhile use for them... Twisted Evil

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    Post  Viktor on Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:02 pm

    Nice thumbsup

    Russia's international reserves grew by $ 9.1 billion over the week
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    Post  Hole on Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:15 pm

    Gold, baby! Very Happy

    Just read in Stalker that Surgutneftegaz has some 52 Bill. bucks on his accounts, just behind Zuckerbook. I would like to see a list of the money that all state-owned (Surgutneftegaz is "private") got on their accounts.
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    Post  calripson on Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:40 am

    Viktor wrote:Nice  thumbsup

    Russia's international reserves grew by $ 9.1 billion over the week

    Russia had around $100 billion in gold in its FX reserves. Gold has been on a tear. It is symptomatic of the beginning of US dollar weakness. The move from US Treasuries to gold was one of the smartest financial moves they made. If US rate go negative (as in Germany), gold will trade much higher as the cost of carry will become a positive.
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    Post  kvs on Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:46 pm



    Shocking treachery.   The monetarist hive at the Ministry of Finance is sabotaging Putin's decision to shut down offshore
    rackets such as the ones using Cyprus.   They delayed the dividend siphon racket closure to the beginning of 2024.  

    This is incredible.  In Canada the Prime Minister appoints the Minister of Finance and dictates the policy of the Ministry.
    In Russia you have some sort of bizarre autonomy happening where a clique of liberast compradors follows their own
    private agenda.  This includes privatizing government companies without any consultation with the President.
    This is grotesque.

    Time for a 1930s style purge of this hive.   This is treason, pure and simple.

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    Post  Big_Gazza on Sat Aug 08, 2020 6:30 am

    kvs wrote:Time for a 1930s style purge of this hive.   This is treason, pure and simple.

    Comprador filth.  Hang them all, and send their families the bill for the rope and burial.  Twisted Evil
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    Post  GarryB on Sat Aug 08, 2020 11:16 am

    Evidence of corruption... I would say the FSB should be taking a very close look into this...

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