Syrian War: News #20

Yesterday map before Saraqib surrounded. There is still a question as to whether the SAA has actually entered and taken the town. Its likely to be a nest of tunnels, left behind jihadis and booby traps so they are not in any hurry.

They have not taken Saraq yet just surrounded it.

Water if weak and slow, goes around a Rock. If deep and slow, goes over the Rock. But if strong, carries the Rock!


https://youtu.be/M0GUVNUD5LY

Water decides what to do, when it gets there.

nomadski wrote:Water if weak and slow, goes around a Rock. If deep and slow, goes over the Rock. But if strong, carries the Rock!


https://youtu.be/M0GUVNUD5LY

Water decides what to do, when it gets there.

A philosopher no less

Okay now the SAA has taken Saqab once they capture Sarmin.

They could in theory attack Idlib.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Okay now the SAA has taken Saqab once they capture Sarmin.

They could in theory attack Idlib.

Tmr is supposed to be the limit date of turkish threat. They said they will bomb SAA if they don't retreat behind turkish observation checkpoints.

Most likely nothing will happen but who knows.

Isos wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Okay now the SAA has taken Saqab once they capture Sarmin.

They could in theory attack Idlib.

Tmr is supposed to be the limit date of turkish threat. They said they will bomb SAA if they don't retreat behind turkish observation checkpoints.

Most likely nothing will happen but who knows.

The turks have been actively shelling the SAA openly now, so I would say that threat has a good chance of being made real.

This isn't any surprise, Turkey is trying to annex land. Ero was bound to send in their troops directly sooner or later.

Choice 1 : SAA moves slow. Rats regroup. Turks bomb. SAA looses ground.

Choice 2 : SAA moves fast. Rats disperse. Turks bomb. SAA gains ground.


https://youtu.be/mRCN1wXQppY



The Turks occupy large areas of Syria. They ultimately have to leave. As soon as Syrians can replace them in the North, to provide security. Either from takfiri terrorists or Kurd separatists. If Turkey will not leave, While Syria can replace them and provide border security. Then no alternative left but to fight.

Syria does not have to fight full scale wars on three different fronts. But it can respond even in limited way to further military aggressions. The usefulness of such responses is many. For one, it sets the standard or precedence of self defence. One that can be built on at later date, with full scale responses. Another use is to keep morale high among the SAA troops. An artillery strike against advancing Turk forces, or a missile into Tel Aviv, when civilian Usrael plane in the air, or a drone strike against yank oil smuggling operation, can all be done. At the same time. Since the enemy will escalate anyway. Especially in the absence of a retaliation. At least this way we set the standard.

Some reports suggest the sunni alqaeda choppers are planning a retreat the zones near SAA offensive..
the is major evacuation of expensive hardware ,there are images of they dismantling industrial power generators
and moving them in trucks away..

Riam Dalati
@Dalatrm
·
2h
#HTS trucks in #Ariha, #Kafranbel and Jabal al-Zawiyah towns spotted dismantling heavy-duty generators and power transformers for transport elsewhere. Locals say this is usually a sign preceding surrender/expected takeover of towns by #Syria regime.

this is either a tactical retreat.. or a surrender of some zones... with a very slight possibility , of
some sort of agreement between erdo and putin.. about a new line ... the reason to think this way ..
is the claims by russia ,that no turkey plane bombed in idlib as they claimed.. and no SAA soldiers reported
killed by the syrian government that usually they do it when it happens. ..

turkey army havent started an offensive yet on SAA .since they reported 4 turkey soldiers killed.. which is strange..  that level of restrain from turkey is not common. .  

so all this signs combined , of alqaeda retreat and of turkey army no declaring on the media war on SAA
and no reports of major tanks movements of turkey army? .. could indicate that...
1)Erdogan is still undecided what to do ,if betray Russia again and swing back again to the american side..
  and go for a full scale war with syria. and just in discussions with US ,Russia ,and their military behind scenes.
2) that there is some kind of temporary agreements in place..between erdogan and putin ,in case things go out of control.

Also it is possible that erdogan declarations ,against SAA.. could be just lipservice.. to continue having the support of the jihadist in idlib.. and from the nationalist that backup him at home.. which ever way is..
mark my words.. the future of Russia -Turkey relations will be fully know ,in the next days or weeks..
also the direction of US military in syria ,will also be known in that time.. in this month ...february 2020.
they are now showing signs to interfere in idlib too... which could be a pretext to come an bomb the syrian
army there and claim ,they were just bombing "terrorist" and "didn't knew" the SAA was there. The lack of
another chemical hoax attack ,after russia reported that the video was made , if not happen in this month
then it will not happen ever again..

if there is no meeting between lavrov and putin with erdogan or his foreign minister..
in the next days o week ,then is either relations are very bad or either they have reached an agreement..
about idlib..without a meeting.

Last but not least.. it seems israel strike on syria failed big time to hit their intended targets..
the ones that managed to pass.. the air defenses.. perhaps were blinded their guidance by electronic
warfare and landed on  civilian zones..

update.. interesting report of days ago...
no idea if this is true....just crossed into an user who claim this..
posting just for reference..

محمد رسول الله
@MohammadSadist
·
Feb 4
Replying to
@GeromanAT
...i talked to some people in the ground, told me rats are running with their families to the bordes [borders?],
no body wants to fight, NO BODY, even hts rats are blaming jawlani and they don't want to fight, and this intel is from people who have family members with hts...

.


is this an exxageration ? a case of to good to be true ?
the jihadi rats collapsing across all idlib ?
still this doesn't means turkey will also leave... unless some major serious agreements were made ,
that turkey retains some territory.. the kurdish zones they invaded for example .. to save face..

Im skeptics ,but if it is true , then US military will try to pretend they fight terrorist now and start bombing
a few pair of alqaeda fighters here or there ,to save face , and better explain the discovery of lots of
caches of medium range american rockets missiles 50km to 100km made by US defense industry in the hands of the terrorist..it will be an scandal... if covered in detail.. and explain how missiles that syria don't produce,
that require big trucks to transport were smuggled from an us base to syria..

The turks have started to move in tanks and other pieces of equipment, putting them between Idlib and the SAA.

Ero has made his declaration if the SAA wants Idlib they will need to go through the turkish military.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:The turks have started to move in tanks and other pieces of equipment, putting them between Idlib and the SAA.

Ero has made his declaration if the SAA wants Idlib they will need to go through the turkish military.

I read somewhere that the tanks were the old ones M60? and there did not appear to be crews with them. Presumably the SAA could go in directions the Turks don't cover. It seems that the SAA has more important objectives currently than Idlib city, the M5 north and around Aleppo.

Turkey is shifting large forces to Idib. Turkey's military intervention is being prepared. Putin SAA will not help.
https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2020/7-february-the-military-convoy-sent-by-turkish-army-to-idlib

JohninMK wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:The turks have started to move in tanks and other pieces of equipment, putting them between Idlib and the SAA.

Ero has made his declaration if the SAA wants Idlib they will need to go through the turkish military.

I read somewhere that the tanks were the old ones M60? and there did not appear to be crews with them. Presumably the SAA could go in directions the Turks don't cover. It seems that the SAA has more important objectives currently than Idlib city, the M5 north and around Aleppo.

They are M60's but they are Turkish Tanks. SAA could go along the M5 but their major goal has always been Idlib, since if the rebels lost Idlib that's it they really have nothing left.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=14&v=iZ3HdY0Bw1I&feature=emb_title

Arrow wrote:Turkey is shifting large forces to Idib. Turkey's military intervention is being prepared. Putin SAA will not help.
https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2020/7-february-the-military-convoy-sent-by-turkish-army-to-idlib

No I don't see Putin risking confrontation with Turkey over Syria, How Ironic it is though.

Putin sells Russian AD system to a nation that may very well end up using it against them. One of his genius moves.

Putin sells Russian AD system to a nation that may very well end up using it against them.

well, it could have internal means preventing its use against any RF aircraft. If they tinker with it, Russian tech personnel servicing it would know it. Can Turks maintain them on their own? Not anytime soon IMO.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

Arrow wrote:Turkey is shifting large forces to Idib. Turkey's military intervention is being prepared. Putin SAA will not help.
https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2020/7-february-the-military-convoy-sent-by-turkish-army-to-idlib

No I don't see Putin risking confrontation with Turkey over Syria, How Ironic it is though.

Putin sells Russian AD system to a nation that may very well end up using it against them. One of his genius moves.

Turkish s-400 will never leave Ankara. They are there to protect Erdogan. The won't use them against the only country that perfectly knows how to destroy them.

Do you see Turkey or Erdogan risking a confrontation with Russia at the moment ? EU, Cyprus, Greece and Egypt would love to see Russia destroying Erdogan.he better calm down, money for s-400 is already in Russia ...

Isos wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

Arrow wrote:Turkey is shifting large forces to Idib. Turkey's military intervention is being prepared. Putin SAA will not help.
https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2020/7-february-the-military-convoy-sent-by-turkish-army-to-idlib

No I don't see Putin risking confrontation with Turkey over Syria, How Ironic it is though.

Putin sells Russian AD system to a nation that may very well end up using it against them. One of his genius moves.

Turkish s-400 will never leave Ankara. They are there to protect Erdogan. The won't use them against the only country that perfectly knows how to destroy them.

Do you see Turkey or Erdogan risking a confrontation with Russia at the moment ? EU, Cyprus, Greece and Egypt would love to see Russia destroying Erdogan.he better calm down, money for s-400 is already in Russia ...

You need to understand something Erdo is a madman.

You cannot guess what a crazy person will do, Would it be stupid of him? depends how Putin reacts.

Erdo is crazy enough to do it is the thing.

You need to understand something Erdo is a madman.

You cannot guess what a crazy person will do, Would it be stupid of him? depends how Putin reacts.

Erdo is crazy enough to do it is the thing.

Not really. He wants to be in power and stay for a long time. He knows very well if he mess up too much with russia and starts a war he is done. No one will protect him. Not Trump, not EU, not anyone in the ME. Assholes from NATO HQ may talk but Trump will send them to go fuck themselves.

If he was that crazy he would have really invaded kurds. Yet he agreed with Russia for joint patrol and calming things down because he would have became a real NATO enemy.

He does things to stay at power, that why he is not trustful. But he is not dangerous at all. Even SAA bombed the shit out of his men and he does nothing (neither did NATO countries said anything about that) just like Aftar is destroying all his attempts in Lybia.

He doesn't have the army to support its ambitions. Even less since the coup and the mass arrests in the army.

Well he did not have maybe the same number of expert senior officers as before the attempted coup, this is sure, but as far as cannon fodder there is not much difference.
The main problems is the lack of air force pilots, since the purges were mainly directed to the Turkish air force

No air force, no air defence . That only means russia will be free to bomb anything it wants in Turkey. A couple of kalibr will be enough to kill the remaining top generals with no need to use the air force at all.

Erdogan is very well aware of that.

He can't even threaten Hmeimim now that SAA is taking position in the north and kurds are allied with Russia let alone south russia from where main attacks would come.

Everything will be clear in 1 or 2 weeks... the new policy of Erdogan in syria if there will be a change of policy..
it will be know in the next days.. the tanks could be there to defend their military post.. or just for show..
right now RT is reporting ankara will have a new syrian reconcilation format for astana in march (next month)...
so is kind of strange why will day do a new meeting ,if they planning to start a war with syrian army now?

and the fact that terrorist packing , and abandoning the fight in some zones... is indicative of major success
for SAA in scaring the head choppers..

If just 3 to 5 to 10 days.. we will know for sure if a new war will start.. or if turkey is showing tanks for show..
,to save face.. what turkey will really need if they want to fight syrian army is artillery and airforce bombing..
because those tanks and infrantry vehicles will be very vulnerable and easy to disable by syria kornets em portable missiles..with 10km range and airforce..

in my opinion if SAA advance ,they should not enter idlib city and instead encircle it and control all the entry
and exit points.. to contain the terrorist to the inside of cities..and focus more in controlling rural zones and
open territory ,they can use to deploy new military bases. Putin is right now playing hockey with lukanshenko from belarus.. so it looks he is not worried about a major war happenings anytime soon in idlib.. if there was a war to happen there..then putin will be in the russian military headquaters ,taking decisions ,,to prevent a major war..or start one or give their soldiers the order to pull and leave.. as if now.. all looks.. as if is neither peace ,but neither war ..and turkey will be trying to interrupt their actions ,for scoring points at home .
but it could be anything... so in 1 to 2 weeks we will know if there will be a war or an agreement.

 The idiots thought blocking the road meant that they couldn't drive around them lmao!

magnumcromagnon wrote: The idiots thought blocking the road meant that they couldn't drive around them lmao!

Do we know if they actually drove past or accepted the block?

Have read in several locations they are just driving around them.