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    PAK-DΑ: News #2

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    Post  lancelot Thu Dec 07, 2023 10:10 pm

    Swgman_BK wrote:Russia;s work ethic prevents this. Along the way someone is gonna mess up the project and then an extra 5 years are gonna be added to its development. This is what happened to the Pak-FA. Unnecessary delays.. The engines were late. They got here then production was delayed over testing and small changes. All of Russias projects never get done in time.
    As if aerospace projects in the West do any better. Try looking at the proposed and actual schedules of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, or the Boeing Starliner capsule for example.
    Or the Airbus A380, A350, A400M. The list goes on.

    The Lockheed Martin F-35 program also wasn't any faster than the PAK-FA program. Look at date of first flight of X-35 prototype and date of introduction into service of the F-35B. Then compare with the same for T-50 prototype and Su-57 introduction into service.

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    Post  Swgman_BK Fri Dec 08, 2023 12:46 am

    As if aerospace projects in the West do any better. Try looking at the proposed and actual schedules of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, or the Boeing Starliner capsule for example. Or the Airbus A380, A350, A400M. The list goes on. wrote:

    As much as we are pro Russia the truth is they have everything they need to be ahead but the willpower. If Russia had Chinas willpower and work ethic, the Su57 would have had all 76 units delivered by 2022 as was planned originally with both the 2nd stage engines and 1st stage engines. Sometime between 2014-2018 the Su57 went quiet. Apparently the engines were not done. 2019 engines are done, now something else is the matter and more testing is needed. 2022, 4 or so service batches built but the 76 Su57s are to be fully acquired in 2027 or thereabout due to unknown reasons..Sounds like high level corruption to me..
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    Post  lancelot Fri Dec 08, 2023 12:59 am

    Swgman_BK wrote:As much as we are pro Russia the truth is they have everything they need to be ahead but the willpower. If Russia had Chinas willpower and work ethic, the Su57 would have had all 76 units delivered by 2022 as was planned originally with both the 2nd stage engines and 1st stage engines. Sometime between 2014-2018 the Su57 went quiet. Apparently the engines were not done. 2019 engines are done, now something else is the matter and more testing is needed. 2022, 4 or so service batches built but the 76 Su57s are to be fully acquired in 2027 or thereabout due to unknown reasons..Sounds like high level corruption to me..
    China still had hundreds of older generation J-8 and J-7 fighters to replace. These used MiG-21 technology as a baseline. Russia had built hundreds of Su-30, Su-34, and Su-35 aircraft over the last two decades. They don't need to build all that many Su-57 yet.

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    Post  GarryB Fri Dec 08, 2023 1:35 am

    Russia;s work ethic prevents this. Along the way someone is gonna mess up the project and then an extra 5 years are gonna be added to its development. This is what happened to the Pak-FA. Unnecessary delays.. The engines were late. They got here then production was delayed over testing and small changes. All of Russias projects never get done in time.

    Are you drunk? The PAK FA is ready for serial production likely a full decade before Europes 5th gen heavy fighter... maybe two decades.

    The Su-57 was never intended to start serial production with the improved engines, the improved engines were supposed to be a midlife upgrade to compensate for inevitable weight increases over time. And testing and problem solving means the US and allies have about 700 F-35s that don't work properly yet and the much vaunted supply and support system they were going to develop for it to make it cheap to operate has been cancelled.

    Their hypersonic projects seem to be on time... Kinzhal and Zircon seem just fine and S-500 is in service now isn't it?

    Considering it is under 11 rounds of sanctions and is the most sanctioned country on the planet yet showing 3% growth in its economy I would say most westerners would swap places if they were honest and if it was possible.

    Ironically the efforts of the west seem to have resulted in a mirror effect... they cut the branch they were sitting on to damage Russia and they are falling themselves.

    All of Russias projects never get done in time.
    ~=
    Nuclear submarines and ICBMs are actually completed before the set time in Russia because they maintain Russia's threats to the US and NATO..

    The Lockheed Martin F-35 program also wasn't any faster than the PAK-FA program. Look at date of first flight of X-35 prototype and date of introduction into service of the F-35B. Then compare with the same for T-50 prototype and Su-57 introduction into service.

    Not to mention the list of 850+ problems and issues with the aircraft which have not been fixed or corrected...

    If Russia had Chinas willpower and work ethic, the Su57 would have had all 76 units delivered by 2022 as was planned originally with both the 2nd stage engines and 1st stage engines.

    Hahaha... yeah... Russia would be so much better if Russians weren't so lazy. China has never had any delay for aircraft serial production because of engine delays... NOT.

    They don't need to build all that many Su-57 yet.

    They don't even know if they need any Su-57s yet... lets see how these F-16s get on shall we?

    Most western equipment has turned out to be not as good as it was hyped when tested in a real conflict... lets see how good western aircraft are against a real air defence system instead of goat fuckers and hunter gatherers.

    They don't have a reason to make 300 Su-57s, and after making 76 of them they will be able to test and them and get some operational experience and decide if they want more or if that will do for now.

    The heavy stealth fighter is not the numbers plane in any air force... the US spends more than the rest of the world combined on murder and they could only afford 189 F-22s.... and right now they want more F-15s rather than more F-22s... which suggests the heavy 5th gen stealth fighter is not all it is cracked up to be... but then it might just be that the F-22 is even worse than the F-35.

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    Post  lancelot Fri Dec 08, 2023 2:41 am

    The Su-34s, Su-35s, plus most of the Su-30s, were built over the last decade. So they won't be replacing those anytime soon. At best they will upgrade them with more modern electronics and sensors.

    The Su-57s being built are going to replace the Su-27s in service. Eventually as the other air superiority aircraft like the Su-30 and Su-35 get older, like a decade from now, they will also start to be replaced with the Su-57.

    The dual seater Su-57 could replace some of the Su-30 and Su-34 aircraft when it enters service.

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    Post  GarryB Fri Dec 08, 2023 6:53 am

    I disagree.... I rather suspect that over time they will continue to make more Su-34s and Su-30s and Su-35s because most of the time they are good enough and are not overly expensive to buy or to operate. They wont operate them in enormous numbers because if they need a numbers aircraft then the MiG-35 is available and soon its 5th gen light fighter replacement will be their next option.

    There has never been any commitment from the Russian military regarding an all stealth fighter fleet, and for some roles I suspect stealth would be a drawback rather than an advantage.

    Having hundreds of Su-57s flying low and slow over the battlefield in some sort of CAS role would be ridiculous... just as ridiculous as using an Su-27 or Su-35 for the same role.

    If we look at how the Su-25 was evolving... the Su-25T and Su-25TM were too expensive and sophisticated so they settled for the cheaper Su-25SM3, but it is quite a bit more sophisticated than the original Su-25 which was just a bomb and rocket truck.

    Maybe the future of CAS will be an M-55 with optical and radar and even lidar pods scanning the ground for targets in real time while MiG-35s 30km back from the front line also scan with their AESA radars finding targets and threats on the ground to launch Kh-38 or Grom missiles or glide bombs at.

    Maybe instead of a MiG-35 they use something like an AC-130 except instead of guns sticking out the side (such an aircraft would last seconds on a real battlefield), it might have rockets and missiles that can be launched in forward flight. Perhaps retractable rocket and missile launchers that can be loaded inside the fuselage, extended and fired and then retracted and reloaded etc etc.

    Something like an Il-214 or perhaps a new Il-276 so it isn't too big and expensive but has the volume for lots of weapons and missiles.

    Perhaps a Tu-330 with very powerful engines to allow higher operating altitudes so only really large and easier to defend against enemy air defences can reach you with enlarged wings... it could then fly over the front line and drop guided bombs from altitudes of 20km or thereabouts.

    Of course in such a case the best option would be an airship...
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    Post  lancelot Fri Dec 08, 2023 7:20 am

    With regards to future bombers and CAS aircraft. We still have to see exactly which kind of aircraft the PAK-DA will be. If it is more of a tactical bomber, a dual engine with engines with NK-32 like performance, or a strategic bomber with quad engines. Since it is often claimed that it will replace the Tu-95, I suspect this will be a dual engine, but who knows.

    If it is a dual engine then it can replace the Tu-95 and the Tu-22M3 in a lot of its uses. The Tu-22M3s used in the anti-shipping mission might be replaced by the future PAK DP just like the MiG-31K is now being tentatively used for anti-shipping attacks. The PAK DA might also replace some of the Su-34 and Su-24 aircraft as tactical bombers. Other bombers might be replaced with the dual seater Su-57. But the frontline tactical bomber or CAS role will be done by drones like the Grom or the Okhotnik.

    The Su-30 was initially designed as an air superiority aircraft. The second crewman was meant to operate the radar and weapons. It was only later changed into a multirole aircraft with the Su-30SM. It was never meant to have bombing missions as its main role. That was always to be done by the Su-34.
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    Post  GarryB Sat Dec 09, 2023 1:05 pm

    With regards to future bombers and CAS aircraft. We still have to see exactly which kind of aircraft the PAK-DA will be. If it is more of a tactical bomber, a dual engine with engines with NK-32 like performance, or a strategic bomber with quad engines. Since it is often claimed that it will replace the Tu-95, I suspect this will be a dual engine, but who knows.

    Sorry I wandered off topic there... but on topic... imagine a flying wing PAK DA with enormous numbers of small glide bombs that are guided to individual targets, where the aircraft operates at higher than 15km altitude at subsonic speed scanning for targets on the ground with radar and optics, communicating with commanders on the ground or drones and sharing information and views from the airborne bombers various optical systems and radar to find targets on the battlefield in real time like the Su-25 used to but from a safe vertical distance where the only threats would be large SAMs that would be easier to spot and defend from than flying much lower with smaller missiles and ground fire able to hit you.

    The new stealth bomber would be a difficult target radar guided missiles and IR guided missiles too, but EW equipment should be good and self defence small AAMs could defeat enemy AAMs and SAMs that might threaten.

    We have already seen with drones that the real problem is that there are only so many drone operators and so many targets so a solution is using AI to find and categorise targets with the human just deciding on the kill or not... such systems would allow a drone swarm to rapidly take down an enemy force by killing individual soldiers one at a time with little or no human intervention... a similar system on a strategic bomber on a theatre bomber mission allowing hundreds of tiny guided bombs with 1-2kgs of explosives designed to kill one or two people could be released over an enemy formation to wreak havoc and not just all hit one person or nothing.

    I suspect the requirement to store theatre level bomb loads which would include the FOABs, as well as a range of rather big strategic cruise missiles 11m long and the internal fuel to fly to a useful launch position is going to require four engines but no ABs, and perhaps fitting them with thrust vectoring nozzles could be justified by allowing it to trim its flight angle allowing the lowest drag and maximum lift performance at any given flight speed would make the extra weight and complication worth it.

    Its primary role is replacing the Bear, but replacing the Backfire as a bomb truck is supposed to be a secondary role too AFAIK.

    I would think four engines but with no AB would allow excellent range and decent internal capacity for weapons and fuel.

    I would think in terms of an anti shipping role that a naval version of the PAK DP would be more suitable and effective where speed and decent range would compliment its ability to deliver effective ordinance on any threats... right now the MiG-31K is probably more effective than the Tu-22M3 in the anti ship role despite the Kh-22M and Kh-32.

    But the frontline tactical bomber or CAS role will be done by drones like the Grom or the Okhotnik.

    The CAS role as performed by the Su-25 equated to eyes in the sky up close with direct fire weapons... the advantage was that it was there on the front line and could see the enemy in real time and hit them with bombs and rockets and cannon fire there and then with no delay for the enemy to run away or hide.

    The power of air defence has meant even an armoured bathtub is no longer cutting it and standoff guided weapons like LMUR and Hermes and even Lancet type weapons are becoming useful.

    Lofting rockets from a distance makes the aircraft safer but it no longer sees what it is shooting at so what do you do... replace the eyes on target with high flying drones, or M-55 type aircraft to patrol looking for targets to hit in real time, but such platforms can't carry enough weapons to deliver a killing blow on enormous numbers of targets so do you use a drone swarm, or fighters like MiG-35s with standoff weapons, or combinations of all of the above.

    The M-55 and MiG-35s could use radar and optics in pods and other equipment to share information and communicate with troops on the ground to help find targets to hit or friendlies to not hit.

    As I mentioned some large airship could carry sensors and weapons in the form of gliding bombs... make it from super light composite materials and have it operating at 30km altitude with fuel cell technology allowing hydrogen lifting gas and ballast water to be created back and forth as needed... you could fit it with all sorts of glide bombs and other smart weapons to defend itself and to find targets... the top half could all be solar panels, or some nuclear battery of some sort... it could contain radars 100m across or extremely low frequency radars, and other electronic sensing equipment... it could control drones, be a communications relay in places where there is no other communication.

    At worst it could be a transport platform able to carry enormous payloads from where they were made to where they are needed... a hydro electric dam for instance... a 200 ton generator in one piece from factory to the building it will be installed in... take off the roof and install it in place...

    The Su-30 was initially designed as an air superiority aircraft. The second crewman was meant to operate the radar and weapons.

    Yes, the PVO were using it like a slower but longer ranged MiG-31.

    It was never meant to have bombing missions as its main role.

    Agree, but I suspect the Navy will want it to replace the Su-24 in the naval attack role as a cheaper alternative to the more expensive Su-32 based on the Su-34.

    With the new Su-30s getting the radar and engines and equipment of the Su-35 I would say its capacity to be a multirole fighter bomber is only enhanced in many areas.

    In fact I think countries like Iran might find the two seat Su-35 that the new Su-30s are would be more suitable for their pilots who are used to cooperation in F-14s and F-4s.

    And these days having a spare crewman who can interact with drones as well as operate the sensors of the aircraft while the pilot manages flying and navigating is not a terrible idea anyway.

    Lots of new lessons and experiences to be transferred into new technology and tactics... a real polygon.


    Last edited by GarryB on Sat Dec 09, 2023 1:14 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : edited for clarity.)
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    Post  lancelot Sat Dec 09, 2023 3:59 pm

    GarryB wrote:Its primary role is replacing the Bear, but replacing the Backfire as a bomb truck is supposed to be a secondary role too AFAIK.
    I would think four engines but with no AB would allow excellent range and decent internal capacity for weapons and fuel.
    Well that would be basically the size of a Tu-160. The Tu-95 carries a similar payload weight to the twin engine Tu-22M3. The only difference is that the Tu-95 can carry more external payload, it has more hardpoints for it, and the larger wing means it can takeoff with a bit more weight.

    GarryB wrote:The CAS role as performed by the Su-25 equated to eyes in the sky up close with direct fire weapons... the advantage was that it was there on the front line and could see the enemy in real time and hit them with bombs and rockets and cannon fire there and then with no delay for the enemy to run away or hide.

    The power of air defence has meant even an armoured bathtub is no longer cutting it and standoff guided weapons like LMUR and Hermes and even Lancet type weapons are becoming useful.

    Lofting rockets from a distance makes the aircraft safer but it no longer sees what it is shooting at so what do you do... replace the eyes on target with high flying drones, or M-55 type aircraft to patrol looking for targets to hit in real time, but such platforms can't carry enough weapons to deliver a killing blow on enormous numbers of targets so do you use a drone swarm, or fighters like MiG-35s with standoff weapons, or combinations of all of the above.

    The M-55 and MiG-35s could use radar and optics in pods and other equipment to share information and communicate with troops on the ground to help find targets to hit or friendlies to not hit.
    Camera resolution, and video feeds aren't like they used to be in the late Cold War. Just look at how they use FPV drones now. I think in between sending the video feed and the platform itself doing a rough selection of targets of interest might be enough.

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    Post  GarryB Sun Dec 10, 2023 7:17 am

    Well that would be basically the size of a Tu-160.

    That is right, but with a thicker wing because it does not need to go supersonic nor to have variable sweep.

    With two lots of two engines with a gap between them, one engine vertically on top of the other the body is going to have enormous volume and space for weapons and fuel.

    I am just wondering if they could actually make the wings forwards swept to massively reduce drag and wing tip vortex forming.

    With spaced apart two engine modules you could have three main weapon bays, with one between the engines and one on each side outboard of the engines.

    With a body or centre section that thick you could have vertical missiles pointing up and down for launching missiles or releasing bombs with very high efficiency.

    The Tu-95 carries a similar payload weight to the twin engine Tu-22M3. The only difference is that the Tu-95 can carry more external payload, it has more hardpoints for it, and the larger wing means it can takeoff with a bit more weight.

    In theory yes, but the core problem for a stealthy subsonic flying wing is that all weapons would need to be carried internally, which is a drawback for a supersonic plane but for a subsonic plane like a Bear it is actually an advantage really.

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