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    Russia-Turkey S-400 missile deal

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    Post  JohninMK Mon Dec 07, 2020 12:42 pm

    The US/NATO may scream and shout about the S-400, it is don't forget a two edged sword.

    I wonder if the S-400 radar data on a F-22 or F-35 or even an F-16 has fed back into their Intel from an obliging friend in Turkish AD yet. I asked above where the money for a second batch was coming from. I'd say it was definitely worth the US giving the Turks the money for it in payment for that information.
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    Post  PapaDragon Mon Dec 07, 2020 7:41 pm

    JohninMK wrote:The US/NATO may scream and shout about the S-400, it is don't forget a two edged sword.

    I wonder if the S-400 radar data on a F-22 or F-35 or even an F-16 has fed back into their Intel from an obliging friend in Turkish AD yet. I asked above where the money for a second batch was coming from. I'd say it was definitely worth the US giving the Turks the money for it in payment for that information.

    No need

    The moment first Turkish radar operator spots F-35 on screen the cat will be out of the bag

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    Post  Isos Mon Dec 07, 2020 8:38 pm

    Yeah and then they will have a data worth using only against Turkish S-400.

    I doubt Turkey would be happy with that situation. US f-35 are more likely to bomb Ankara than Moscow. Greece is also going to buy f-35. Israel already have them. US knowing their S-400's weak spots means Greek/Israeli f-35 more likely to survive them during a bombing.

    S-400 also doesn't need thousand people to be ussed. Less than 10 should be enough to use it (not driving or maintenance part). They must have choosed patriots to man them that will be less likely to sell data to anyone.

    Turks have a lot of patriots people that hates US or NATO.

    Russian S-400 are also better integrated. OTH radars will see f-35s coming way before S-400. Then Nebo will see them then S-400 and shorter range systems will see their munitions...
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    Post  GarryB Tue Dec 08, 2020 12:09 pm

    I wonder if the S-400 radar data on a F-22 or F-35 or even an F-16 has fed back into their Intel from an obliging friend in Turkish AD yet.

    Lots of software in those Turkish systems that could lead them to false conclusions about what it can or cannot engage.

    Russia has radars in Syria where Israeli F-35s and US F-22s have been operating, and we know their Container system tracked F-35s on the Iran Iraq border too...

    I suspect US bluster about Turkey buying S-400 is to prevent Turkey finding out how vulnerable the F-35s are to S-400 rather than how vulnerable the S-400s are to F-35s...

    I'd say it was definitely worth the US giving the Turks the money for it in payment for that information.

    S-400 is just one piece of the Russian IADS... knowledge regarding Russian S-400s on its own is probably not that much use because it is its use within the entire Russian system that makes the system (S-400 and Russias IADS) so powerful and effective.

    US knowing their S-400's weak spots means Greek/Israeli f-35 more likely to survive them during a bombing.

    Assuming that knowledge offers some weaknesses that can be exploited... hell Turkey should realise such information would be used against them and they could get the Russians to mix up a batch of false information they can pass on to the US so they get the money anyway...

    Russian S-400 are also better integrated. OTH radars will see f-35s coming way before S-400. Then Nebo will see them then S-400 and shorter range systems will see their munitions...

    Exactly... the first radar that HATO need to bypass in a sneak attack on any part of Russia will never be an S-400 battery.... their OTH-B radars of all types see much deeper into international air space...

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    Post  jhelb Wed Dec 09, 2020 1:47 pm

    Isos wrote: US knowing their S-400's weak spots means Greek/Israeli f-35 more likely to survive them during a bombing.
    Biggest challenge for fighter pilots is anti aircraft artillery. The likes of Pantsir, Skyshield etc. Missiles can be dodged by most modern day fighter aircraft. Not easy to dodge bullets.
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Wed Dec 09, 2020 2:16 pm

    jhelb wrote:
    Isos wrote: US knowing their S-400's weak spots means Greek/Israeli f-35 more likely to survive them during a bombing.
    Biggest challenge for fighter pilots is anti aircraft artillery. The likes of Pantsir, Skyshield etc. Missiles can be dodged by most modern day fighter aircraft. Not easy to dodge bullets.

    SAM missiles can't be dodged by fighters when they're being intercepted like you see in typically inaccurate Hollywood films. Rolling Eyes All fighters jets (outside of ECM defensive suites) can do is to out fly them and take erratic flight paths and fly outside their range envelope.

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    LMFS
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    Post  LMFS Wed Dec 09, 2020 2:48 pm

    magnumcromagnon wrote:SAM missiles can't be dodged by fighters when they're being intercepted like you see in typically inaccurate Hollywood films. Rolling Eyes All fighters jets (outside of ECM defensive suites) can do is to out fly them and take erratic flight paths and fly outside their range envelope.

    Of course, not to say that many SAMs are in fact faster than bullets...

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    Post  Backman Fri Dec 11, 2020 5:18 am

    https://twitter.com/humeyra_pamuk/status/1337093363577851908

    SCOOP - The United States is poised to impose CAATSA sanctions on #Turkey over its purchase of #Russian S-400s. The announcement can come any day, and it will target #Turkey's Presidency of Defence Industries, its head president. From me @phildstewart
    Story on @Reuters wire

    This is very good for Russia. It will force Turkey to the dark side. The CAATSA club will keep getting bigger.

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    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Mon Jan 04, 2021 5:43 pm

    Not sure what this means. Pro Turkish poster.

    MiddleEastWatch
    @MiddleEastWatc1
    ·
    30 Dec 2020
    Turkish Foreign Minister:
    There is an agreement to form a joint working group with the United States on the Russian S400 missile system.
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    Post  GarryB Tue Jan 05, 2021 3:02 am

    Except of course that Turkey does not have any Russian S-400s and only has a fraction of the support equipment that goes into making it a capable system...
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Tue Jan 05, 2021 3:21 am

    JohninMK wrote:Not sure what this means. Pro Turkish poster.

    MiddleEastWatch
    @MiddleEastWatc1
    ·
    30 Dec 2020
    Turkish Foreign Minister:
    There is an agreement to form a joint working group with the United States on the Russian S400 missile system.

    If the Turks are that idiotic, all it means is that Russia doesn't have to deliver any more missiles and or any other services, while keeping the money. No consistent supply of missiles, they'll become glorified lawn gnomes.

    Even VVP said they would sell to the US if they were willing to buy, meaning the versions they would sell to NATO members are so radically different to domestic versions that it wouldn't even matter! Wink
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    Post  PapaDragon Tue Jan 05, 2021 4:47 am


    Any S-400 sold for export is such a monkey version that it probably has banana refrigerator somewhere in the cabin

    So whatever Turks do with it is hardly a concern, cat was out of the bag the moment China got theirs (or whoever bought it first, forgot who it was)

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    Post  calripson Tue Jan 05, 2021 4:38 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Any S-400 sold for export is such a monkey version that it probably has banana refrigerator somewhere in the cabin

    So whatever Turks do with it is hardly a concern, cat was out of the bag the moment China got theirs (or whoever bought it first, forgot who it was)


    Hopefully. You can guarantee with 100% probability that every component of any export product sold to Turkey will be thoroughly examined by NATO.
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    Post  Isos Tue Jan 05, 2021 4:55 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Any S-400 sold for export is such a monkey version that it probably has banana refrigerator somewhere in the cabin

    So whatever Turks do with it is hardly a concern, cat was out of the bag the moment China got theirs (or whoever bought it first, forgot who it was)


    I think they gave some numbers about one of the radars something like 260km against an f-16 for turkish version or export version and more than 400 for russian version.

    For that matter I would take Buks over S-400 any day. For the same price you can have 10 systems. One or two S-400 are useless against well armed countries when you don't have pantsir/tor and other L band radars to use with it.

    Even worse turks will try to us it with their homemade systems.


    Hopefully. You can guarantee with 100% probability that every component of any export product sold to Turkey will be thoroughly examined by NATO.

    Not really. Hardware is the same as on other state of art systems like patriot with PESA radars and electronics comparable to western systems.

    What really matters is the softwares and even turks don't have them.

    Moreover Erdogan bought them to protect himself from NATO. Against russia they are useless. He has no reason to let NATO touch them and give the specs to Greece or Egypt.

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    Post  GarryB Wed Jan 06, 2021 1:20 am

    I think they gave some numbers about one of the radars something like 260km against an f-16 for turkish version or export version and more than 400 for russian version.

    Plus all the secret support equipment that the Russians will use with their S-400 batteries that are not for sale that make them much more effective than they would be on their own....

    For that matter I would take Buks over S-400 any day. For the same price you can have 10 systems. One or two S-400 are useless against well armed countries when you don't have pantsir/tor and other L band radars to use with it.

    If you think of it like transport planes... it is the difference between having 5 An-124s and 100 Il-476s...

    There are some jobs the Il-476 simply can't do that an An-124 can, but most of the time the An-124 is just too big and heavy and expensive to use for most targets... it would be massive overkill against cruise missiles and drones...

    Larger numbers of smaller systems makes more sense if you can't have both.

    BTW Slovakia has had SA-10 SAMs for quite some time yet Syrian S-300s seem to still represent a serious problem for western air forces... for big systems like S-400 what they provide is long range high quality radar coverage of a very large volume of airspace... with a missile range of up to 400km you could probably cover all of New Zealands air space with 5-6 batteries... especially if you have a few container systems to see beyond mountain ranges...

    The money generated from these sales is where these weapon makers get their best profit margins, so this is pouring money into SAM development for the future...
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    Post  Isos Wed Jan 06, 2021 1:52 am

    Well the S-400 is a heavy system to deploy and is very limited by the number of missiles. Send 24 drones on it and it will use all its stock of missiles then just a random bomber will take it out. Turks would need 4-6 tors and 1 Nebo radar with it to have a decent AD coverage/protection.
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    Post  JohninMK Mon Aug 23, 2021 12:50 pm


    KUBINKA /Moscow Region/, August 23. /TASS/. A new contract with Turkey on the delivery of Russian-made S-400 medium-to-long-range anti-aircraft missile systems may be signed soon, CEO of the state arms exporter Rosoboronexport (part of the state tech corporation Rostec) Alexander Mikheyev said at the Army-2021 international military-technical forum said on Monday.

    "The consultations continue and are at the final stage. We will start formalizing a contract with our partners soon," the chief executive said.

    Certain successes were achieved at the IDEF 2021 international defense industry show held in Turkey in August, he said.

    "The exhibition was a success and our delegation brought back a fairly good program of requests," Mikheyev said.

    Moscow and Ankara inked a deal in 2017 on the delivery of the Russian-made S-400 air defense system to Turkey, thereby making it the first NATO member to purchase this air defense missile system from Russia.

    Ankara’s decision to purchase the Russian-made system infuriated the United States and NATO. So far, Washington has not abandoned its efforts to make Turkey give up the Russian air defense system.


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    Post  GarryB Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:03 am

    Well the S-400 is a heavy system to deploy and is very limited by the number of missiles. Send 24 drones on it and it will use all its stock of missiles then just a random bomber will take it out. Turks would need 4-6 tors and 1 Nebo radar with it to have a decent AD coverage/protection.

    True, and fair enough, but Turkey already has other military assets... when they detect those 24 drones they might just send up a dozen F-16s with AAMs to shoot them down.

    The S-400 adds something to the Turkish air defence network that they didn't have before, and while a dozen BUK or TOR or Pantsir systems would be useful too they would only protect individual targets from attack whereas the S-400 can defend very large areas at a time.

    Like I said having 6 An-124s or 100 Il-476s... either is limiting... the better situation is to have a couple of An-124s and increasingly larger numbers of smaller and smaller aircraft gives you the best transport capability... so a few An-124s, a few dozen Il-476s, 100 Il-276s, a similar number of Il-114s and Il-112s and 400-500 An-2 replacements at the local small field level...

    Ironically sometimes you use bigger planes not for their weight capacity but for their range... moving a 20 ton payload wouldn't normally need a plane bigger than an Il-276, but if you want to move it 5,000km then an Il-476 actually is a better choice for the job, or for a 10,000km range move an An-124 or equivalent.

    Back to SAMs, the smaller missile systems are better but if an enemy JSTARS or AWACS platform wanders into range then obviously shooting that down will have an enormous effect on any conflict, both in terms of the loss of the aircraft, but also the change in tactics on the other side to prevent it from happening again... their support aircraft might start operating from further away reducing their performance and capability in the conflict.

    The Russians have not launched a single S-400 SAM in Syria AFAIK, yet the impact in theatre is pretty clear...
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    Post  Broski Tue Aug 24, 2021 1:11 pm

    GarryB wrote:The Russians have not launched a single S-400 SAM in Syria AFAIK, yet the impact in theatre is pretty clear...
    The S-300's & S-400 are true defensive weapons. The fact is the US/NATO hasn't invaded any countries that have either systems such as Venezuela, Belarus, Algeria and Iran, aggressor nations can't deal with those who can adequately defend themselves. I wonder how differently the Syrian theatre would've played out if Putin had honored the s-300 contract with Assad that was already payed for in 2010 instead of denying them valuable defensive weaponry for the sake of Israel? I guess we'll never know now.

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/pm-threatened-to-hit-s-300s-before-they-came-online/
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    Post  PapaDragon Tue Aug 24, 2021 1:51 pm

    Broski wrote:...I wonder how differently the Syrian theatre would've played out if Putin had honored the s-300 contract with Assad that was already payed for in 2010 instead of denying them valuable defensive weaponry for the sake of Israel?...

    IDF would have blown those S-300 back in 2011 due to incompetent morons operating them, reputation of Russian AA systems would have taken additional damage, nothing would have changed in Syrian War and Russia would have harder time justifying it's involvement to it's population due to new perceived inferiority of it's weapons

    Assad would be hanging from a lamp-post with bayonet jammed up his butthole before 2015 was out



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    Post  George1 Sun Sep 19, 2021 3:03 am

    Turkey and Russia are close to concluding a contract for the supply of the second regimental set of S-400 air defense systems

    https://bmpd.livejournal.com/4398994.html

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    Post  GarryB Sun Sep 19, 2021 7:33 am

    I wonder how differently the Syrian theatre would've played out if Putin had honored the s-300 contract with Assad that was already payed for in 2010 instead of denying them valuable defensive weaponry for the sake of Israel? I guess we'll never know now.

    Well we can make some pretty educated guesses... the Israelis would have mounted serious attempts to destroy it to start off and the so called Syrian uprising would have given them a golden opportunity to use terrorists on the ground to probably mount an operation to capture parts or all of a battery intact so they can take it to bits and see how it worked like they have done so many times before.

    S-300s would not have stopped Israel on their own and certainly would have been worse than useless against ISIS and the Kurds and their western supporters...

    The presence of the S-300 system would have added a lot of focus and made the west pour even more resources into the ground based destruction of Assad... a and perhaps led to them using a cruise missile attack on the battery to conceal a ground based attempt to snatch the system intact to take it back to Turkey or Israel for detailed dissection.

    It would be like saying an S-300 battery would have saved Serbia, but if Serbia had S-300 then the west would just send cruise missile after cruise missile to try to defeat it and cut off the supply of new missiles.

    What would have been rather more use would have been Pantsir... smaller, lighter and very mobile and very capable of shooting down aircraft and munitions in numbers to make them highly dangerous... but again more than one battery would be needed... and they would find decoys would be valuable too.

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    Post  ALAMO Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:21 am

    S-300 we talk about has been compromised a long time ago, and widely.
    Starting from Slovakian and Bulgarian pieces, inspected closely by the new masters, and ending up with the US, which bought the system from Belarus back in the early 90s.
    While both Slovakian and Bulgarian were export models, the one from Belarus was a fully capable S-300P system equal to the ones Russia still operated at a time.
    Even more modern PMU-1 version was closely checked by the Israelis, once they have drilled with Greeks.
    So there would be nothing more to learn if S-300P or PT batteries withdrawn from Russian service would end up in Syria.
    My guess why they have not supplied it to Syrians is more marketing-driven, plus there is an obvious Israeli lobby acting in Russia.
    Hell, if most of your highest commanding staff is fluent in Russian, and graduated the very same military academies as their Russian counterparts, it is clear they can make deals, right?

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    Post  Broski Yesterday at 1:25 pm

    Well we can make some pretty educated guesses... the Israelis would have mounted serious attempts to destroy it to start off and the so called Syrian uprising would have given them a golden opportunity to use terrorists on the ground to probably mount an operation to capture parts or all of a battery intact so they can take it to bits and see how it worked like they have done so many times before.
    Even if it was captured (unlikely because the S-300's would've been stationed in the Damascus military airport which was never captured throughout the war), it's an export model which wouldn't have compromised Russia's domestic S-300's. Of course Israel would mount an offensive to destroy the systems, but they would've been protected by Pantsir-S1's which were delivered to Syria between 2007 and 2009.

    S-300s would not have stopped Israel on their own and certainly would have been worse than useless against ISIS and the Kurds and their western supporters...
    It would've stopped Israel and the United States from bombing the SAA and its allies for ISIS and the moderate headchoppers unimpeded.

    The presence of the S-300 system would have added a lot of focus and made the west pour even more resources into the ground based destruction of Assad...
    You mean even more than the massive amount of resources they've already poured in to oust Assad? That seems like a cop-out to me, other than a full scale invasion like Iraq, what other support could FUKUS have given the terrorists which they didn't by then?

    and perhaps led to them using a cruise missile attack on the battery to conceal a ground based attempt to snatch the system intact to take it back to Turkey or Israel for detailed dissection.
    A cruise missile attack from where? Israel? Syria would've responded with Smerch and Tochka-U.
    A US destroyer? That would've forced Russia's hand (for better or worse) to respond.

    It would be like saying an S-300 battery would have saved Serbia, but if Serbia had S-300 then the west would just send cruise missile after cruise missile to try to defeat it and cut off the supply of new missiles.
    If Serbia had the S-300's then they would've set up a defacto no-fly zone over the whole country and while NATO (the US) would've launched cruise missiles at them, they would have a difficult time pin-pointing where the systems are as they would be constantly on the move, with their radars turned on intermittently. No country as far as I'm aware has been defeated with a cruise missile attack only.

    What would have been rather more use would have been Pantsir... smaller, lighter and very mobile and very capable of shooting down aircraft and munitions in numbers to make them highly dangerous... but again more than one battery would be needed... and they would find decoys would be valuable too.
    Syria had 50 Pantsir Systems by 2009, they would've protected the S-300's and vice versa. Saying that Israel, the US and their terrorist proxies would've gotten their way anyway because muh-cruise missiles (that Pantsir shoots down as easily as the S-300 does planes) quite frankly seems like bullshit to me.
    We'll never know for sure how much the S-300's would've helped Syria but pretending like they wouldn't have helped at all is absurd.

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