10/14/2010 - Analysis
Russia's only manufacturer of tanks of NPK Uralvagonzavod can stay in 2011 without orders. Experts say that even a simple one year will cost technology and training. Degradation of the military-industrial complex, experts say, will force Russia to buy armored vehicles abroad. As found Browser RusBusinessNews, it will pay for defense enterprises formerly fraud and today's inability to promote their products in a fiercely competitive.
The management of OAO "NPK" Uralvagonzavod, which produces T-72 tanks and T-90, the company informed the union about a sharp decline in production of military equipment in 2011. The absence of the state defense order will entail a reduction in staff. UVZ administration intends to reorient the part of specialists mechanoerecting production to civilian production. In particular, the possibility of production of railway equipment in the "tank" workshops.
Press secretary Alexei Uralvagonzavod Zharich said RusBusinessNews that in December 2010, ending a three-year contract with the Ministry of Defence to supply the Russian army for 63 tanks a year. New order has not yet been received. Since the end and export contracts, the company's management decided that we should be ready for mass release of personnel of tank production. Managers are confident that orders for rail cars in 2011 will only grow. According to A. Zharicha, the economy revives, a growing number of carriers, making the plant can not satisfy all requests for cars. Accordingly, the released manpower will fall by the way in civil proceedings. At the state defense company, apparently, no longer counts.
Expert at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST) Andrei Frolov believes that after the three-year contract at the plant planned to produce new T-95, but the project was closed, and now UVZ is likely to be engaged in the modernization of old T-72B. Such an assumption confirmed Deputy Director General of the artillery factory № 9 Nikolay Kozlov. According to the manager of the enterprise, delivering UVZ tank barrels, with a state order issue is not resolved, and producers aim at upgrading the tanks. However, no plants and the more orders from the Defense Ministry have been reported. Consequently, the upgraded equipment plants can at your own risk.
No contracts with the military and Federal State Unitary Enterprise "Uraltransmash" - the manufacturer of self-propelled artillery units. According to Director of Marketing and Foreign Economic Affairs Nicholas Bednyakovin previous years, contracts also were not earlier than March, but then at least the end of the year was known quantity of products that is going to order the Defense Ministry in the next year. Now there is no such clarity: the numbers are called every month is different and no one can guarantee that your order will generally be because the military still undecided as to which they are preparing for war.
Meanwhile, the chairman of the Defense Committee of the State Duma Viktor Zavarzin said recently that the cost of procurement of military equipment and weapons will grow next year by 25%. In 2011 will be spent 460 billion rubles in 2012 - 596 billion in 2013 - 980 billion. Separately, to be financed research and development work, the proportion of costs that the military budget of Russia has decreased somewhat, but in absolute numbers will increase from 107 billion rubles this year to 115 billion in 2011.
The rising costs of military equipment and armament explained the decision to bring the country's leadership in 2013, the proportion of the cost of buying new weapon in the general defense budget to 70%. A similar setup has led to the fact that the Russian Defense Ministry has closed a number of unpromising research and sent the released funds for improvement of ballistic missile Bulava missile carrier "Angara" and "Russia", the new satellites, fighter T-50 and some other projects .
The number of unpromising got all armored vehicles, as manufacturers of tanks and self-propelled guns could not offer anything new. Bednyakov Nicholas said that the emergence of new themes directly linked to funding. Now there is neither one nor the other, why all the previous years Uraltransmash is upgrading the same product. Update technique can be, if the share of R & D spending is at least 10% of the state order. Such claims manager, in post-Soviet years was never. What will happen to the research work in 2011, did not understand.
Experts believe that in this situation industrials largely to blame themselves. Ph.D. Michael Rastopshin has published several articles in the media, which showed that the designers of the Soviet tanks misleading state, in essence, falsifying test results. In particular, manufacturers have argued that the armor of the T-72 (which later grew to T-90) is not penetrated by foreign projectiles from a distance of 1500 meters. However, experts say, back in 1983 shooting showed that an Israeli tank M48A5 breaks the 105-mm projectile frontal armor of the T-72 at a distance of 2000 meters. Ural developers tank managed to convince everyone in neprobivaemosti their armor just because at the time of acceptance tests of T-72 used a shell which is not synonymous with foreign armor-piercing projectiles.
Tricks that have been applied in the Soviet era, today will not go. Ministry of Defence has openly stated that the T-90 - Tank outdated and useless even to upgrade. Years of work in the Soviet economy, however, interfere with JSC "SPC" Uralvagonzavod promote promising technique. In particular, the unclaimed military was already established in the market environment to support combat vehicle tanks (BMPT). According to the head of analytical department of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis Alexander Khramchikhin, managers UVZ could not lobby for this is quite a promising product in ministerial offices. It is obvious that all the new technology raises a legitimate question from the military, where and how they will use it. Leaders of the plant have not been able to explain the purposes for which created a new machine.
Lack of state orders for tanks Uralvagonzavod not kill, but the consequences will be serious for the company: skilled professionals leave, and equipment failure. According to A. Khramchikhin, everything goes to the fact that Russia will buy armored vehicles abroad. It will happen regardless of whether, according to this Russian leadership or not. There will be soon in Russia and their military vessels. Patriotic remain only aviation technology, because in this industry on R & D money has been spent productively, which predetermined high potential leaders lobbying airlines. Already announced that 2015 will be purchased 70 T-50 fighter jets and about 400 new and upgraded military transport and assault helicopters. The military also purchase Il-112 Il-476 Il-76M and AN-70.
Executive Director of the Union of enterprises of defense industry of the Sverdlovsk region, Vladimir Kukarskikh believes that specific orders will be only after the approval of the state armaments program for 2011-2020. But today it is clear that the bet is placed on the rocket-space and aviation technologies.
Such a solution, experts say, absolutely does not imply a complete renunciation of the manufacture of tanks: Melee armor is always needed. Lack of public procurement and "tank" of prospects - the defeat of managers and specialists of JSC "SPC" Uralvagonzavod, which could not operate in a fiercely competitive arms market.