eehnie wrote: ATLASCUB wrote: eehnie wrote: ATLASCUB wrote: eehnie wrote: nomadski wrote:Thanks for everyone for your reply to my post . And as papadragon said national interest does play a part in decisions . However national interest should be within the context of greater international / multinational framework . I heard Syrian government object to Turkey involvement in Syria against Kurds .
The easiest way I can explain my idea is to say that : you can imagine different forces occupying east Syria . Excluding Syrian government forces . Since they will not be classed as occupiers . Among these forces , some can not jointly occupy this area . Because they are either not allies or they are enemies . Some can not occupy alone , because they are weak . And some can occupy alone .
At this point in time , Syrian government forces can not liberate the eastern portion . But they can allow different forces to enter and fight the SDF and yank zionist occupation . It then is a simple question of who can be most easily evicted after the SDF is defeated ? The answer is the fewest and weakest and least hostile and closest forces , strong enough to defeat the SDF and backers .
Who can this be ? Turkey alone ? Maybe . Iran alone ? Maybe . All these together ? Yes the best solution . But if not possible , then the Turks . They are neighbours and can be reached later . Americans are not within reach .
You mean the the Turks that have in Turkey at least 24 NATO bases?
The Turks that expell not the US from Turkey will not expell the US from Syria.
These Turks will not be allowed to invade parts of Syria.
Your Kurds won't expel the U.S either. As for Afrin Kurds, they better make a good deal with SAA soon. Russia has been living with those facts for ages. The only way NATO shrinks is if USA becomes weak, and for the time being, albeit borrowed (in trillions), they are strong.
If Russia doesn't put up a fight, even Ukraine (fucking Ukraine) will be part of NATO.
Look at the map, and stop saying things that agree not with the reality.
Your Turkey has not been and will not be allowed to enter in Syria. They only want their own Golan to stay like in the Turkish Republic of Norther Cyprus. But this time even with a worse detail, there is not a significant Turkish population in Syria.
It's not my Turkey since I am no Turk but you have owned the Kurds like an adopted child. You can try to sidestep the obvious, which is, the Kurds allying themselves with the devil but it's too inconvenient for you to touch. I'll leave it at that since I know you have no basis to respond other than gibberish that crashes the thread for no good. As for the Turks, they're currently the best vehicle which can be used to drive the U.S out of Syria since Russia won't touch them, for Iran/Assad it will be a big costly mess and your Kurds will continue to welcome them with open arms as they've done so far - allowing them to set up shop (the U.S provides protection and leverage they otherwise wouldn't have - not to mention MONEY!). I couldn't care less about the Turks outside of that, except a genuine geopolitical realignment which to be honest is not in Turkey's best interest at the moment and will be premature given the current balance of power. Neutral Turkey and looking East is the best than can be hoped and should be desired from Turkey for now.
Oh yes, I have 30 millions of adopted children, WTF.
There is here an anti-Kurd narrative that agrees not with the reality. The Kurds are not enemies of Russia. In fact have been old allies.
The Kurds are allowing US operations in their territory, Ok, no-one is denying it, but the level of military presence of the US in the Kurd territory is not bigger than the level of US presence in Irak, and is far lower than in Turkey.
If a normal person that knows how Turkey is an official NATO member and has in its own territory US nuclear weapons looking at Russia, reads the comments here, only can think this forum is plaged of unrealitic anti-Kurd propaganda. To pretend that a country with US nuclear weapons inside will expell the US of the Kurd territory is just for laugh.
And all this narrative of the pact of the Kurds with the devil is just very weak, because the people see all you ignoring the pacts of Turkey with the devil, that are in force at this point. It is obvious how for you the pacts with the devil are not the important part. It is obvious how for you the important part is the anti-Kurd position.
Why you allow to the Turks what you allow not to the Kurds?
The same could be said backwards back to you, and you still avoid it like the plague. Putting up more questions for others won't change the obvious underlying problem you have.
But a few points:
Russia is not the Soviet Union - communism is longggggggggg dead. Russia and the Kurds are not "allies" - the communist Kurds were props used by the Soviets to spread communism and spill pain to their enemies in the region - mainly Turkey. Now they're props of capitalist Americans (the irony).
When that usefulness backfires - like it does now; they're merely another player Russia has to talk to avoid burning all bridges of communication and to keep itself as the balancing force in the conflict - able to strike deals with players who would otherwise slash each other's throat and only escalate the situation. Also, it lets the Kurks know there is an alternative to being under Uncle Sam's umbrella - should they seek it.
As for the Turks - YES - known backstabbers, land grabbers, servant AND loyal U.S puppets for a long time. However there has been issues in the relationship stemming from the latest adventure the duo took part in (Syria). So here are the things that are destroying that relationship...
#1 The Kurds: Kinda obvious the Kurds are an existential threat to the Turkish state and a ticking bomb. I think the Turks need to look no further than Syria and Iraq to see this - not to mention the Turks have lived with it - albeit more successful at controlling and suppressing it.
#2: The Syrian conflict itself: It's also obvious that Turkey believed this little adventure would be a quick power play that has backfired tremendously and that has destabilized its neighbors and its own borders for absolutely nothing of gain and that it needs to end as it's not sustainable... it creates only problems and costs and solves nothing.
This dilemma pits two strategic allies (Turkey/U.S) against each other as interest diverge, and has spillover effects to other areas (mainly diplomatic for now). The U.S seeks to prolong the matter since it's not their backyard they're playing with and they want to spoil and destabilize the region as much as they can (or as they call it, shape it to their liking - which means "fuck you" to everyone practically) - the U.S thrives in chaos (chaos=control - when puppet regimes are absent). That's an issue for Turkey which naturally wants its borders stable and wants to see the conflict end since it failed Turkish objectives. Moreover, the fact that for the U.S to keep itself in the game requires propping up the separatist Kurds is the bigger problem.
The U.S needs the Kurds to justify their presence in Syria and play the spoiler role and the Kurds need the U.S for protection/money etc to help advance their cause of separatism not only from Syria but from Iraq and Turkey.
Issue #3: The U.S tried to coup Erdogan for stepping out bounds for a vassal - compounding the matter when it ended in failure. Naturally such an event would result in the severance of all ties including strategic ties (with U.S bases going kaput) BUT....The Turks are not stupid; breaking away from the U.S/NATO in such fashion will mean total siege of the state (which would make a failed coup attempt look like childs play) - which is why the Turks are taking it up the ass in this regard. There is no Soviet Union to look to (Russia is too weak, can't even protect Ukraine), and China loves its hermit hole. Also, the Kurds are not worth that precipice either.
However the Turks can, and have done so, look towards ending and settling the conflict on its border with other players (Iran/Russia and Syria (on the downlow)) and harrass the U.S as much as possible to derail their plans in Syria. For all the reasons above.
The real question is; why should I support separatist Kurds? If it were for me I would be gladly content shipping them to Israel and seeing them fight Jews for Land. I support Syria as a country, whole again - whatever it takes. What is not acceptable is a North/South Korea scenario again or what they have in Iraq. It's pretty much scripted to go down a similar route..... It goes down that route because the empire demands it goes down that route and everyone else takes it up the ass - and that's a fact. Unless a Vietnam happens....highly unlikely in that god forsaken desert. Thus you need all the players you can to drive the hegemon out, their baggage is included.
Now, you also pose, albeit don't specify your fear of Turkish occupation of Kurdish areas in Syria. The question to you is; aren't they occupied already by an even bigger force that no one dares to touch (the U.S)?
So are we swapping who controls the land and assessing which power is worse? I think the Turks lose that one easily.
Supposing such an invasion by Turkey goes through, for an invasion to take place there would be a NEED to do so. If Turkey is so in bed with the Americans as you claim, then there is NO need for Turkey to invade SDF held areas since they're under allied/American control already. Thus we have a contradiction.
As for Afrin: The reason Afrin is kept alive is because #1 the Turks themselves drove a wedge to avoid the cantons being connected, thus avoid an even bigger plot of land to come under U.S control. At the time such wedge was driven the rebel force by Turkey wasn't strong enough to take Afrin. Also, due to considerations for other players on the ground - Russia/Iran/Assad - things were settled there. Those considerations are based on the hope that such territory would eventually be turned over to the government through a deal - HAS NOT HAPPENED. Thus we are where we are - Turkey on the verge for an invasion of Afrin.
Afrin Kurds can hand over territorial control of the region to the SAA and disband and come under SAA control....I'm pretty sure Turkey won't do a thing and gladly welcome that instead of spilling blood but we know the Kurds have so far refused.
Keep tuned to what comes next these next few days.
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