For those trying to follow what is happening presently in 404 land, an interesting view.
Putin's multiversion: the war of all against all can begin in Kiev
November 1, 2017
Yesterday's morning did not foretell anything unusual in Kiev. The media vied with each other about which Kremlin tower and why Amin Okuyev (Natasha Nikiforova) killed the "people's heroine of Ukraine" the night before, and how this could end on the scale of the "world revolution". The thunder struck at about 10 am when Interior Minister Arsen Avakov announced that he was removing the protection of the Maidan. And after this statement the events began to develop simply with kaleidoscopic speed.
Ultimatum to the Maidan
Avakov's statement, in fact, was shah and mate Maidan Mikhail Saakashvili. The regime of Poroshenko outplayed the ex-president of Georgia and was preparing to inflict that last suicidal blow. Any further move of the "patriots" entrenched before the Rada was a losing one.
In fact, there were exactly two variants. Either the "opposition" occupies an empty and almost unguarded parliament and becomes outlawed and quickly cleaned up, or the group of "patriots" who are not protected by anybody is forced to leave the "hooligans" who come from behind.
In any case, Saakashvili lost, and Washington lost even what he managed to achieve with such difficulty for September-October 2017. This put an end to any continuation of antiporoshenko's protests in autumn and winter, and in spring it is practically impossible to raise the population of Ukraine to the Maydan. Thus, Kiev, with its unconventional move, could secure for itself almost a year of quiet rule. To the joy of Moscow, and unfortunately the United States.
Roles have changed
Why did it happen that today Moscow is trying with all its might to retain the power of Petro Poroshenko who declared to it (unofficially, of course) the war, and the formal ally of the regime is looking for ways for its demolition?
The fact is that over the past three years, much has changed in Ukraine. Russia, like Syria in Ukraine, needs peace and stability. Already, almost everything is ready to begin its reconquista in the western direction and for the end of the preparation, it is literally two years of tranquility.
Petro Poroshenko also wants to sit quietly for his presidential term. He understands that he is the main problem of Washington today and he really does not want to become another "bloody dictator" in the history of Ukraine. That is, the local interests of Kiev and Moscow coincided. And everything would have been good for them, if not for the Americans, who really did not like their new role - the "third extra".
The first year of rule for the 45th US President Donald Trump was difficult. He inherited from his predecessor a very difficult foreign policy inheritance. Russia's offensive in the Middle East, China has intensified over the past years, a dead end in Ukraine, the European front. All this had to be cleared and corrected, and at the same time, the presidential race of the "democrats" was constantly parried by the losers of the losers.
The MihoMaidan Project
So, by the time Donald Trump could start solving the Ukrainian problem, much had already been lost. From the former 100% of control over Kiev there were only memories. Russia was almost ready to return to Ukraine, and the United States lost most of the tools that had previously allowed them to control any Ukrainian regime.
In 2017, despite the official rhetoric, the most persecuted in Kiev were not the "pro-Russian" oligarchs Medvedchuk and Novinsky, but pro-American political projects led by Saakashvili and Levochkin.
The return of Mikhail Saakashvili to Ukraine and a desperate attempt to rock the Kiev regime is, in fact, a game of all-in. An attempt to depress Poroshenko's regime until he finally got stronger and sent his former sponsors away with their irrepressible appetites to control everything and everywhere.
But, whether Saakashvili is not the same or Poroshenko is much smarter than Yanukovich, the attempt to weaken the Kiev regime with the help of the Georgian maidan failed. The population could not understand why an anti-corruption court should be there when the war and the refrigerator are empty in the yard.
That is why, despite the PR and good preparation already by the second week of existence, Saakashvili's organized Maydan was blown away. By the end of the second week, even the last Kiev homeless people realized that nothing good would come of sitting in tents. It became for Poroshenko a signal that the circus can be closed.
So, it was October 31. As already mentioned above, Arsen Avakov caused the long-awaited blow to the Maidan under the breath. Washington realized that the time was not on the days, but on the clock, and if you delay, tomorrow there will be nothing to save and no one in the Mariinsky Park. Therefore, just a few hours after the decision to withdraw the police from the Maidan, the investigators of the NABU detained the son of the minister of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and his former deputy.
Avakov Washington made it clear that he does not intend to retreat any more and the minister should make his choice right now. Either the minister of the Ministry of Internal Affairs continues to execute commands from the US embassy, or remains together with his president and shares his fate.
Despite the fact that the main target today in Ukraine for Washington is Peter Poroshenko, the most difficult decision is to take Arsen Avakov. He has on his hands those trumps that can tip the scales either one way or the other
The choice is very difficult and ambiguous. An error in this situation can cost the minister not only posts, but also heads.
So, the rates in Ukraine are raised to a new level. The losing party risks very much, but because the bridges are not burnt and the parties can still try to negotiate. Because if they do not agree and the conflict enters an acute phase, Moscow can already half celebrate its victory. The enemy, who previously opposed it with a united front, will be finally divided and will have only ... to strengthen support for Petro Poroshenko. For the time being, of course.
Author: Yury Podolyaka
EDIT: and to just to keep it interesting military action has stepped up with increased shelling and scrimmages.