ATLASCUB wrote:
Ohh it goes deeper than that. It shows that no one is safe (american "enemies"). It shows that the U.S can challenge Russia on a turf they claimed their own with little consequence and can set up base camp anywhere (like in Raqqa) to challenge them. I always saw that as a BIG BIG mistake for Russia to allow. American troops are in Syria right now with boots on the ground (and they won't get out unless seriously challenged). If you're a state looking to aling yourself with Eurasia and BRICS you'll think twice for sure. "Russia can't protect you" - that's the message. During the Cold War there was respect when it came to military interventions. Not anymore.
The problem is not that Russia is powerful enough or not to counter United States and NATO . because they can. Hitler 5 million army failed its invasion on Russia dont forget that ,even they had technology advantage. . The problem is the location of the battlefield where Russia is forced to fight with a very weak economy ,in a war not many in Russia understand is important ,and against a very big alliance. You have Israel a nuclear power in the south ,and then you have Turkey in the other side. then Jordan. and to make things horribly worse , Russia military base in Syria is
right there near Turkey border. it means that TUrkey/NATO can very easily do a massive artillery strike on Russian military ,and destroy its runways. on top of that , if that wasn't bad enough already NATO have a strong terrorist force of up to 50k mercernaries and bring way more to over Run Russia military base. This means that Latakia base cannot be defended. Is not the right place for S-400s to be. Because there is no distance between Russia military base and the positions of enemies can strike them.
So it have nothing to do with how well Russia technology is or not. nothing to do if Russia have S-500s or S-600s ,or very advanced lazer defenses.If you fight withing visual strike distance of your enemies ,then the advantages of beyond visual range combat that Russia have are totally wasted. and any modern weapon Russia brings there from NATO or Israel or Russia can be easily defeted , So jihadist well armed by NATO can over Run Russia military base if equiped with the right tools. if you inverse the scenario. Lets say United States was helping Syria ,and Turkey,Israel and NATO was aiding terrorist, it will not be different. US will be unable to defend the zone ,without nukes and without a strong economy.
latakia is simply an impossible to defend zone. And there is a saying ,that you never go to a battle you know you cant win. So Russia can be supplied with the best technology in the world ,including lazer weapons and it will not be different. unless they invent tanks and planes that can survive a direct artillery hit and invest a lot of money in building a fortress in Syria to survive tomahawks and artillery attacks .. Another problem is the cost of the war. of defending property Syria will be too much. Which is the real goal of NATO there. They will not want to over Run Russia military base just yet ,because Russia is wasting a lot of money now. So Is really dangerous battlefield that Russia face, Russia biggest mistake was to allow Syria to lose so much territory.
WHen it comes to Russia main land is a totally different story. over there Russia cannot be defeated ,not even with All NATO combined and Israel.
Russia will own NATO in an artillery duels and keep grounded those planes if
S-400s deployed far from borders. thats the way they were designed to be. to take advantage of distance and fight enemy before it is at striking range.
Because in battlefields and wars is really important to have the ability to retreat to some place, and in Syria Russia have no place to retreat if Latakia taken, they will be locked.
So i will not be surprised that Russia retreat from Syria if trump start a major
offensive with its terrorist allies. The only way Russia can fight back is using nukes ,and wiping millions in Turkey and Israel. So is hard for Russia to find a reason to hold ground and waste so much money to try to keep order in Syria, specially when about 30% of its population is potentially friendly or very friendly to ISIS. Assad had a lot of problems of ISIS secret sympathizers withing Syrian army. So if you do a step back ,and look at the
monumental effort that will be not only to fight NATO ,and Israel ,but to help
Syrian army hold terrain and to keep loyalty in Assad army ,for defending such small piece of land of muslins ,that Russian citizens reject. Then you will see is not worth of it.
What Russia can do ,is try to solve things with politics and dialogue ,so
that NATO can have the pipelines they want ,Israel the guarantee security they want ,and Russia provide them political cover for their alliance with terrorism. but knowing how Neocons hates Russia ,they will want to humiliate them completely ,just to send a message to other nations ,that Russia cannot protect them.
To make things worse there is Serbia , NATO can repeat Syria scenario there.
and in Serbia they not even have a coast. LOL so is a landlocked land. it will be as painful too ,unless they manage support of Bulgaria government a NATO country ,to use its airspace territory to fly planes there. SOmething that NATO will not allow ,but the new Government is friendly to Russia and he could show the middle finger to them.
Russia major problems is the lack of allies.while US can get a major coalition.
and use military bases anywhere. to fight under very favorable conditions.
If Russia had mexico or Canada as allies it will be a game changer thing ,since will be able to deploy missiles next to washinton DC ,to force NATO remove their missiles near Russian borders. in short , Russia is safe from invaders on its motherland ,so NATO to fight them ,needs to get Russia out of their motherland.
When it comes to the over hyped Israel .they are a paper tiger. Just one nuke
Russia will wipe all their air defenses. Their situation is even worse than Syria with its very tiny land and very small army. IRAN indeed can over run Israel with the right weapons ,and nukes will be totally useless if Iran move very fast and move inside their cities. So that will block the use of nukes.
Turkey in the other hand can hold a strong army invasion.but without NATO it doesnt have a chance either if Russia fights them from the black sea that is. Russian planes and cruise missiles will hammer.
Moral of the story in wars , the geography matters ,even more than the weapons. Manpads in high mountains can do wonders. and tanks cannot enter in difficult high terrain.
Turkey non stop.
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