Slightly off topic, since this is about the state of the Ukraine regime forces and the overall military situation, but I did the mistake of trusting the DNI reports on civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure. The figures seemed low but I did not give much thought and not see reason to doubt them. Turns out they are cooked as well, probably doing the same expedient of taking last month figures and passing them for the whole year, or in view of the multiple coincidence it's maybe a systemic error of the worker that copypastes the text into automatic translation and posts it in English.
Turns out there are official figures much higher, but likely for reasons of not hurting morale and limiting the outrage of the militia fighters that want to go on the offensive, they are not publicized
It gives another indirect confirmation of the intensity of the artillery bombardments and of the war.
According to data obtained recently from the DPR authorities, 3,609 civilians died in strikes by Ukrainian forces between 13 February 2015 and 26 August 2016, of which 3,133 were men, 476 women, 65 children and 352 “unknown”.
In addition, figures from the DPR Ministry of Utilities and Housing Construction state that up 20 July 2016 4,359 ‘multi-family housing’ were damaged, of which 54 are irreparable, and 6,307 private houses damaged, of which 1,853 are irreparable.
As the neighbouring Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) has also experienced similar military strikes and civilian casualties, a very rough estimate would suggest that at least 6,000 civilians have died in strikes by Ukrainian forces on the Donbass republics since Minsk II.
This is a report from september 2016. The months between September 2015 and January 2016 were relatively calm, though there was never a ceasefire at all. It also does not take into account the last three months where attacks and shelling grew every week worse, with corresponding casualties.
This breaks my heart, even though most of the victims were murdered by the bombardments of the summer of 2015, and the Ukranian forces are not allowed or unable to shell city downtowns as they did before, there must have been at the very least another 1.000 civilian dead during 2016.
Military casualties are likely even higher than I am estimating. I would say closer to 10.000 ukrainian dead, and 3.000 novorussians then.
Novorussians are tight lipped about the enemy losses, but they let slip this yesterday on Donetsk briefing:
Against this background words of the deputy minister on the so-called temporarily occupied territories and internally displaced persons Tuka sound too optimistically, when he says that Donbass will be forced to be a part of Ukraine in one and a half years at most. Proceeding from the statistics of combat and noncombat losses in the AFU, in one and a half years there will be just nobody "to force."
What is interesting is that after one year of seven drafts, recruiting even people on their 40s, the regime was supposed to have a quarter million troops under arms, yet frontline strength has not increased but substantially decreased.
Probably strength is closer to 150,000, of wich one third in the front, one third non-combat service troops, and other 50,000 troops in reserve and occupation duties. National Guard and paramilitary nazi battallions were about that strength combined, and they are increasingly seen in the frontlines.
I really doubt that there's much of a partisan or resistance movement in occupied Donbass, beyond raids by patrols that infiltrate across the front but the fact that so many troops have to be deployed for rear area security shows at least the threat is present. Also, the regime must also keep troops deployed in pro-Russian regions as Kharkov to guard against rebellion and some troops in Kiev to protect against another coup or Maidan revolt.