The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

Another record beaten, 1.500 attacks is the highest of the year. We cannot talk anymore about medium intensity positional warfare, this is reaching full scale warfare, except for the commitment of large bodies of troops.

https://dninews.com/article/donetsk-command-states-increased-tension-front-1510-afu-shellings-over-past-day

Are there any reports about casualties on the Ukranian side? Any reports about the fighting from people in the frontlines? Anything at all?

There is nothing of any value from either side. For instance the interview with "Mustang" on Newsfront is anodyne and the same as all these interviews where the say who they are, that they fight for their homes against fascists, that there is fighting, that we will win, that Russia will not walk away, etc etc etc. Nothing in the form of a combat report from anybody, including Basurin, but really in positional warfare what is there to say except enemy throws shells. Ukrops even worse. Yesterday after very intense activity along the front on Friday night, apart from ukrops claiming VSN had fired towards Mariupol, they said that not a single round had been fired on that night, and except for Mariupol the entire front was quiet, and from Basurin for the same night we have the highest ever recorded number of violations since beginning of last year, and backed up by video of the damage, eye witness accounts by locals etc. Casualty figures for either sides are a matter of casting runes, looking at chicken entrails etc, but from VSN it is probably about ten a week, or less, and ukrops, twenty or thirty a day?  nobody says, and they will not of course. One notable ukrops killed recently is Konstantin Shramko, previously head of intelligence for Dnepr-1 and now for 128th Mountain Brigade. He was killed at Peski, which gives info away that the tanks and other equipment seen at Ivano-Frankovsk the other week were heading to Donbass as 128th Brigade is known to have some T-72AV and had been in Transcarpathia. Intelligence officers on the front line close enough to be killed could be an indication of coming attack. http://www.politnavigator.net/pod-doneckom-ubit-komandir-ukrainskojj-razvedki.html

Edit: Marina Kharkova is being reported in various outlets about conditions on the front line at Donetsk, that soldiers cannot light fires to keep warm as this is spotted and fire comes down on them. I guess ukrops using Ti and aiming for heat plumes. Also she says that the response from VSN to the recent bombardments has been the heaviest there has been. Over the last week some Kiev media have been saying about an attack by them on Dokuchaevsk, which is a sort of potential double bluff as Dokuchaevsk is a place they will attack anyway during offensive. Interestingly this morning it is reported that ukrops fired Grad at Stylo a little to the SE of Dokuchaevsk, the first time I think it has been in the news since September 2014. Three houses are said to have been damaged, and that the report gives street name and house numbers probably indicates this is real attack, so perhaps Basurin will give more details in his daily briefing in a few hours.

Basurin confirmed use of Grad on Styla but not the details. http://dnr-online.ru/ukrainskie-siloviki-primenili-po-naselennym-punktam-styla-i-kominternovo-rzso-grad-pogib-mirnyj-zhitel-eduard-basurin/

No casualties and a farm was hit. Video on the link http://news-front.info/2016/11/20/vsu-udarili-gradom-po-ferme-v-poselke-styla/

Edit: Enot Corps left Donbass last year saying that essentially due to the political situation there was no reason to remain, and that maybe return in five years when the situation requires it. Seems five years was a very long overestimate and they advise those who want to go to Donbass to fight should slowly collect pack packs and that it will not be a waste of time. This should be seen as a serious indication that war could occur in the not distant future. https://enotcorp.org/от-харькова-до-приднестровья/

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It is not the first time I tried to see this site, but for the first time it worked, and the maps are very interesting.

Khepesh wrote:
Edit: Enot Corps left Donbass last year saying that essentially due to the political situation there was no reason to remain, and that maybe return in five years when the situation requires it. Seems five years was a very long overestimate and they advise those who want to go to Donbass to fight should slowly collect pack packs and that it will not be a waste of time. This should be seen as a serious indication that war could occur in the not distant future.

What does all this mean?

Please explain what is Enot Corps, and why they advise people not to hurry to go fighting to Donbass? Or are you being ironic?

I think what remains is just the endgame. Ukraine can no longer expect military aid from US and NATO, so it's all over. The Ukranian army is a spent force without any serious offensive capability. These are the death throes, but I do not expect them to commit to a final offensive.

For various reasons and simple logic, I know Basurin is deliberately minimizing the extent of the fighting, he is not giving accurate numbers of enemy shells fired because that is simply impossible.

I rechecked my posts. I had set a minimum threshold of a hundred daily casualties as the average for a low intensity war. That has been confirmed throughout 2014 and 2015 (in fact actual casualties were even bigger), but I rechecked, since I thought big battles were driving up the average and in 2016 there haven't been any of those.

Just going by the confirmed reports of wounded arriving to Ukranian hospitals, I am certain that Ukranian casualties average 50 daily, wich would fit with the overall picture. The catch is that the fighting has been nonstop for the entire year and at a higher level of intensity than most of 2015, Debaltsevo pocket excluded.

I took the seven month period of March-October, and in those 200 days the ukrainians will have suffered 10,000 casualties, one third dead, and that is a low end estimate. By years end it will be much closer to my previous 20,000 casualties projection. And that is based on known losses from mostly two hospitals.

Being pessimistic Novorussian casualties are a third of that. I feel though that the exchanges  are more likely 1/4 or 1/5. I hope to be wrong.

Not decisive losses in themselves, but by various reasons the junta can't replace it's losses, as it has to discharge conscripts after one year of service and there are not enough volunteers. I expect they will have to draft again those previously mobilized, or order a 7th levy.

LIMA (Sputnik) — US Barack Obama would like to see the Minsk Agreements on Ukraine implemented before his presidential term ends, he told reporters on Sunday in Lima.

"We talked [with Russian President Vladimir Putin] about Ukraine and the need to get the agreements done. I urged him to instruct his negotiators to work with ourselves, France, Germany, Ukraine to see if we can get that done before my term is over," Obama said.

Read more: https://sputniknews.com/politics/201611211047654957-obama-hopes-minsk-before-term/

Ispan wrote:
Please explain what is Enot Corps, and why they advise people not to hurry to go fighting to Donbass? Or are you being ironic?

Enot Corps are a military-patriotic volunteer organisation based at Moscow. They train in military skills, they send aid and fighters to Donbass, they are associated with "Rusych", they provided security for civilian populations from criminal gangs taking advantage of chaotic war conditions, they are prominent in facilitating and participating in meetings for Union of Donbass Volunteers with Alexander Borodai, and are allowed to use prestigious venues, the first meeting of the congress of volunteers was held in Central Museum of Great Patriotic War  in Moscow. The last meeting in Rostov was attended by many VSN commanders, including "Abkhaz", who sat next to Enot Corps commander Roman Milenkevich, they participate in historical reconstruction and last summer were at "Park Patriot" [Kubinka] in front of Shoigu, and after the event were personally met and congratulated by commander of 1st Guards Tank Army, General-Major Alexander Chaiko. About the "do not hurry", it is not ironic, it is to say that yes, war is coming and get ready, but it is not so urgent to rush to Donbass immediately as if attack is expected in the next days.

In itself the announcement by Enot Corps is not important at all, but is a sign, like birds flying south, that winter is coming.

Ukrainian SBU kidnapped two Russian servicemen in Crimea. Putin needs to react or his people may not feel safe living in Crimea and his troops may feel abandoned.

miketheterrible wrote:Ukrainian SBU kidnapped two Russian servicemen in Crimea. Putin needs to react or his people may not feel safe living in Crimea and his troops may feel abandoned.

where did you hear/see that reported ... if true ... Russia needs to act

Godric wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:Ukrainian SBU kidnapped two Russian servicemen in Crimea. Putin needs to react or his people may not feel safe living in Crimea and his troops may feel abandoned.

where did you hear/see that reported ... if true ... Russia needs to act

Russian MoD

https://ria.ru/incidents/20161121/1481853331.html

just seen it on sputnik ... Russia really needs to close the Crimean border with Ukraine and every car/bus/lorry thoroughly checked before leaving Crimea and ban all visitors from Ukraine

Godric wrote:just seen it on sputnik ... Russia really needs to close the Crimean border with Ukraine and every car/bus/lorry thoroughly checked before leaving Crimea and ban all visitors from Ukraine

I doubt much (or better hope) this won't escalate. Worse has happened with the Russian side letting it slide (Su-24) if not becoming sympathetic to the perpetrator  within a year. Also Putin can't risk his soon-to-become relationship with Trump.

It will give Kiev a OK to keep doing it then till they are successful since they won't face repercussion. Although, Israel had faced the same before too. And their experience showed a 5 year wait.

Kind of sad really. Hope Russia steps up security and builds a wall.

miketheterrible wrote:It will give Kiev a OK to keep doing it then till they are successful since they won't face repercussion

Kiev is likely to be surprised on how the US will hang them out to dry from Jan. 20th. My take is they're desperate. Putin has everything to loose if he goes to war over this. Even if it happens again and again.

miketheterrible wrote:It will give Kiev a OK to keep doing it then till they are successful since they won't face repercussion. Although, Israel had faced the same before too. And their experience showed a 5 year wait.

Kind of sad really. Hope Russia steps up security and builds a wall.

this ... and deports everyone sympathetic to Ukraine .... everyone one of them is a potential 5th columnist and poses a threat to Russia and Crimea

and Russia needs to start supplying the NAF with modern weapon systems as a big f**k You to the HaHols

At current moment, there really is no logical reason why Russia has held back now. The kidnapping of their own troops can have pretty bad repercussions on Russia itself. The downing if the Su-24 still has lots of people given a bad taste. Although, Turkey claims it is due to the gulenists and such who caused it. So they had a fall guy. Kiev does not.

miketheterrible wrote:Ukrainian SBU kidnapped two Russian servicemen in Crimea. Putin needs to react or his people may not feel safe living in Crimea and his troops may feel abandoned.

This show the epitome of Incompetence of the Russia Government security in Crimea.
Allow Ukrainians to enter bomb and leave and allow their military to be kidnapped and leave.
I want now to hear the excuses for such Incompetence of the Russian Government.

How is possible to get 2 servicemen kidnapped if they are armed and in Crimea?
Only abysmal incompetence of Russia security could allow that to happen. Some
people heads will need to Roll for this ,but Putin the master of incompetence will not do that.

Fortunately Trump will come to the rescue of Putin incompetence when he becomes president.
They even are so imbeciles to not have Cameras recording 24 hours ,anything that happen in
Crimea borders , so that at least they could proof with evidence ,Ukraine terrorism if they
invade Crimea.

If a third world nation like Ukraine can kidnap Russia military in Russia territory in what is suppose to be the most heavily defended territory of Russia ,then will not like to know what will happen if it was NATO. really Russia is not prepared to deal with any kind of surprise attacks and need to take more seriously the security in Crimea and demand Putin to resign for incompetence will be a big bonus. i really wonder what kind of moronic staff they have protecting their borders , this is really embarrassing , even more than the killing of Nementsov
right there in front of Russia FSB Government buildings. Hopefully the families of those military will start a major lawsuit against Putin and shoigu for being so incompetent .

Godric wrote:and Russia needs to start supplying the NAF with modern weapon systems as a big f**k You to the HaHols

They are already stocked full.

Looks to me that Ukraine has gone full North Korea.

Took two Russian soldiers? Okay now they are pushing their luck.

PapaDragon wrote:

Godric wrote:and Russia needs to start supplying the NAF with modern weapon systems as a big f**k You to the HaHols

They are already stocked full.

Looks to me that Ukraine has gone full North Korea.

I don't think so.  Novorussian forces could use more tanks, air defense systems like Gecko and thermal devices at infantry fighting levels.  Maybe more artillery as well.  I recall that they could increase the numbers of NAF even higher if they had more equipment but couldn't.

Vann7 wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:Ukrainian SBU kidnapped two Russian servicemen in Crimea. Putin needs to react or his people may not feel safe living in Crimea and his troops may feel abandoned.

This show the epitome of Incompetence of the Russia Government security in Crimea.
Allow Ukrainians to enter bomb and leave and allow their military to be kidnapped and leave.
I want now to hear the excuses for such Incompetence of the Russian Government.

How is possible to get 2 servicemen kidnapped if they are armed and in Crimea?
Only abysmal incompetence of Russia security could allow that to happen. Some
people heads will need to Roll for this ,but Putin the master of incompetence will not do that.

Fortunately Trump will come to the rescue of Putin incompetence when he becomes president.
They even are so imbeciles to not have Cameras recording 24 hours ,anything that happen in
Crimea borders , so that at least they could proof with evidence ,Ukraine terrorism if they
invade Crimea.

If a third world nation like Ukraine can kidnap Russia military in Russia territory in what is suppose to be the most heavily defended territory of Russia ,then will not like to know what will happen if it was NATO. really Russia is not prepared to deal with any kind of surprise attacks and need to take more seriously the security in Crimea and demand Putin to resign for incompetence will be a big bonus. i really wonder what kind of moronic staff they have protecting their borders , this is really embarrassing , even more than the killing of Nementsov
right there in front of Russia FSB Government buildings. Hopefully the families of those military will start a major lawsuit against Putin and shoigu for being so incompetent .

Put down the crack pipe son. This shit happened even in Israel or India. Do you have the exact circumstances? SBU gave more details compared to what the Russians have and stated that the soldiers were nabbed at a border checkpoint which they claim is on their side. So it seems to me a quick grab when they overstepped. They do have security cameras at check points, there are pictures/videos on the internet of such. They probably do not release it to public for security reasons.

Murdering someone in front of an intelligence building isn't something new either. So please, don't get overworked and go grab a heavy drink in order to calm the nerves.

Vann7 wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:Ukrainian SBU kidnapped two Russian servicemen in Crimea. Putin needs to react or his people may not feel safe living in Crimea and his troops may feel abandoned.

This show the epitome of Incompetence of the Russia Government security in Crimea.
Allow Ukrainians to enter bomb and leave and allow their military to be kidnapped and leave.
I want now to hear the excuses for such Incompetence of the Russian Government.

How is possible to get 2 servicemen kidnapped if they are armed and in Crimea?
Only abysmal incompetence of Russia security could allow that to happen. Some
people heads will need to Roll for this ,but Putin the master of incompetence will not do that.

Fortunately Trump will come to the rescue of Putin incompetence when he becomes president.
They even are so imbeciles to not have Cameras recording 24 hours ,anything that happen in
Crimea borders , so that at least they could proof with evidence ,Ukraine terrorism if they
invade Crimea.

If a third world nation like Ukraine can kidnap Russia military in Russia territory in what is suppose to be the most heavily defended territory of Russia ,then will not like to know what will happen if it was NATO. really Russia is not prepared to deal with any kind of surprise attacks and need to take more seriously the security in Crimea and demand Putin to resign for incompetence will be a big bonus. i really wonder what kind of moronic staff they have protecting their borders , this is really embarrassing , even more than the killing of Nementsov
right there in front of Russia FSB Government buildings. Hopefully the families of those military will start a major lawsuit against Putin and shoigu for being so incompetent .

This is out of touch.

Also for the Trump lovers, better to begin to see who will be around him, in his Cabinet.

The fact that SBU was recording it from distance shows they planned it for a while.

It seems that Ukraine authorities are wanting to trade the two soldiers for their 5 that was captured by Russia this year.

Terrorists have done this more than once before.

Korotchenko about the kidnapping of Russian troops in Crimea: Russia such things do not forgive

http://nahnews.org/968510-korotchenko-o-poxishhenii-voennosluzhashhix-rf-v-krymu-rossiya-takie-veshhi-ne-proshhaet/