Ukraine is noisily celebrating the "decisive breakthrough of the Russian first line of defense" in the Zaporozhye direction near the village of Rabotino. The fact that in this way, at the cost of heavy losses, the Ukrainian troops on the way to the Sea of Azov accomplished the main thing: they managed to overcome the continuous zone of our minefields, Brigadier General Alexander Tarnavsky , commander of the Tavria task force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, just triumphantly stated in an interview with the Guardian newspaper .
How! Indeed, near Rabotino, according to the information of the commander of the Tavria grouping, an important gap has been made in the defensive formations of the Russian troops. Assault units and formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine allegedly reached the second defensive line of the RF Armed Forces, in front of which the mines were not so densely planted. After all, our front-line transport communications also pass here. Consequently, now, Pan Tarnavsky is sure, the offensive led by him towards the Crimea will go faster.
Against the backdrop of such a peppy report from the commander of the Tavria, a tub of cold water for Kiev that fell into delight, an expert opinion was heard from the United States by a retired lieutenant colonel of the US Army, a participant in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and now a senior researcher at the Washington Defense Priorities Foundation Daniel Davis . He made an attempt to sum up the intermediate results of the first three months of the Ukrainian “counteroffensive” and outline the future combat prospects for the Russian-Ukrainian front.
It must be said right away: the assessments of the US Defense Priorities Fund turned out to be extremely depressing for Ukraine.
“Ukraine on June 5 launched an offensive on a broad front, focusing on four main directions ... Almost the only direction where Ukraine is still advancing at least somehow, albeit slowly, is the Velyka Novoselka front, where Ukraine captured Rabotino. While we welcome any victory for the Ukrainians, the situation Ukraine is facing right now is far more daunting than it seems.
And further: in just the past three months of fierce fighting, “on the Velikonovoselkovskiy and Orekhovskiy fronts, Ukrainian troops managed to advance by about 10 km. But the price for the Ukrainian troops was too high. Ukraine has obviously exhausted most of its offensive potential, having barely reached Rabotino ... In all likelihood, Ukraine is at the end of its path. Soon she may have to return to the defensive in order to hold at least those territories that she won over the summer from Russia. From a strategic point of view, the 1,000 km line of contact remains practically the same as it was at the beginning of 2023.”
According to expert Davis, most likely any advancement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the front will completely stop by the end of September. Not only because, as usual, autumn thaw will come in these parts and the famous Ukrainian black soil will again turn into impassable mud for a long time. But also because in many areas where the Armed Forces of Ukraine, at the cost of mind-boggling losses, somehow managed to “bite into” our defenses, from an operational-tactical point of view, the Tavria group received very vulnerable flanks. And it is from here that Kyiv should expect Russian counterattacks.
Again, look at the same analysis prepared in Washington: “Some Ukrainian defenders seem to believe that the Russian side is a static entity, so every meter of land returned by the UAF is a deepening wound on the enemy. However, the truth is that Russia is constantly adapting to new and emerging battlefield realities.
The Russian high command has likely noticed that three of the four fronts of the Ukrainian counteroffensive have largely failed long ago. Therefore, part of the Russian forces has been removed from them and is aimed at strengthening the levels of defense in the direction of Rabotino. Thus, the further Ukraine penetrates into this area, the more difficult and expensive any additional progress will be for it.”
What is important: the beginning of a very large-scale redeployment of Russian reserves to the site of the emerging Ukrainian breakthrough near Rabotino is also noted by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), on September 1, information about this in Kiev was shared with journalists by the main saboteur of Ukraine, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, General Kirill Budanov .
According to Budanov, “the Russian military transferred to the Kupyansk direction part of the newly formed in the rear (and therefore, most likely, without combat experience for this reason -" SP ") of the 25th combined-arms army to replace units (which have been fighting here for a long time -" SP "). ") of the 41st Combined Arms Army of the Central Military District". In turn, the 41st Combined Arms Army began a "slow" redeployment to the south of Ukraine. "With a high degree of probability - near Rabotino.
“The 25th Combined Arms Army was created recently and is used to replace the Siberian units of the 41st Army of the Central Military District in the Kupyansky-Svatovsky direction. This allows the 41st OA to start moving from the LPR to the Zaporozhye Front, where Russian troops are repelling the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate reported.
Thus, it is obvious that Moscow in Ukraine for the first time began to commit strategic reserves into battle, which it has scrupulously accumulated and prepared at training grounds in the rear since the beginning of last summer. And here, I think, it is extremely interesting for us to understand: what are the scales of these reserves? And for what purpose, most likely, have the Russian command so carefully guarded them so far as a trump card in its sleeve?
The first information about the 25th combined-arms army in the public space appeared on June 22 this year at a meeting of President Vladimir Putin with members of the Security Council of the Russian Federation.
Speaking there, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu then reported to the head of state: “We are forming reserves as part of the army corps, the army. Plus, five regiments - in the 1st and 20th armies tank. Everything is going according to plan, in fact, by the end of June we will complete the formation of a reserve army.”
As you can see, the number of the future Shoigu combined arms formation was not named. But today it is clear that on that day it was just about the 25th combined-arms at the meeting that was discussed.
Little is known about the reserve army today. It was formed mainly from soldiers, sergeants and reserve officers who had just signed contracts with the Ministry of Defense on the territory of the former Soviet Volga-Urals military district. That is - most of its personnel in a mature, as they say, age. He has not only a solid worldly experience, but also the experience of military service. Although, probably, she never went under bullets.
The basis of the 25th combined-arms division is the 67th motorized rifle division and the 72nd motorized rifle brigade, newly created in the Central Military District. The commander of this army is Major General Andrey Seritsky . He has experience of military operations in Syria. In NWO in Ukraine from the very beginning. I met her in the position of deputy commander of the 36th combined arms army.
Judging by the biography of this combat general, he never bowed to bullets. March 31, 2022 was seriously wounded in the chest by a Ukrainian sniper. He was evacuated to the hospital in critical condition. But military doctors not only saved Seritsky's life, but also returned him to service.
After the cure, he also went not to the resort at all. Transferred to the post of chief of staff of the 14th Army Corps of the Northern Fleet. Now, therefore, Seritsky will lead an entire reserve army into the battle for Ukraine, units and formations of which are arriving at the front line today.
Will this bring a turning point in the military events on the Russian-Ukrainian front? Quite possible. Simply because there is simply nothing to fend off the appearance of such an impressive Russian force in the combat zone with the bleeding APU.
The last major operational reserve of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, represented by the elite 82nd Separate Air Assault Brigade, numbering two thousand people and equipped with foreign equipment (Marder and Stryker combat vehicles and Challenger 2 tanks), was brought into battle in the second half of August. And, according to the American magazine Forbes, in a week he lost a significant part of his shock potential. And the peasants caught in return on the streets of Ukrainian cities, completely unmotivated and without any training, urgently thrown into the trenches of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, are simply not able to represent any serious force.
True, today Kyiv and Washington, like a mantra, say almost the same thing with hope about our reserve army. Like, it is "probably low quality or understaffed." This is the opinion of the American Institute for the Study of War about the subordinates of General Seritsky.
But, firstly, most of the personnel of our 25th Combined Arms Army have at least two or three months of intense combat training at the training grounds of the Central Military District. Perhaps we would like more. But, as they say, "for lack of a stamp, they write in simple."
In addition, those who are now being thrown out of the “fire and into the frying pan” as reserves Kyiv absolutely do not have this either.
For combat training of Ukrainian recruits, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has neither time nor space. All training grounds and training centers of the Ukrainian army are under continuous Russian missile attacks.
And secondly, I would suggest paying attention to what appears to be a very significant confession made on 3 September by Dmitry Medvedev , Deputy Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation.
Medvedev, among other things , said that about 40,000 fighters of the Wagner group had already transferred to the service in the Russian Ministry of Defense. In terms of numbers - just a combined arms army.
I am far from thinking that these most experienced and most "seasoned" of our fighters, all as one, were sent under the banner of General Seritsky. But a significant part is almost certainly exactly there. Simply because this strategic reserve of ours appears first where the front-line situation is most difficult.
And if this is so, if in each motorized rifle or tank company of the 25th combined arms army there were at least ten or one and a half experienced Wagners, it can no longer be considered unfired. Next to these heroic men, everyone will fight like a real devil. Otherwise, shame.
And at this time
According to reliable Russian sources, simultaneously with the formation of the reserve 25th combined arms army in the Crimea, the deployment of the 18th combined arms army began on the basis of the 22nd army corps of the Black Sea Fleet.
It was decided to transform the 14th and 11th Army Corps of the Northern and Baltic Fleets into separate combined-arms armies. In the Far East, on the basis of the 155th Separate Guards Order of Zhukov Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet (Vladivostok), the 55th Marine Division was recreated.
Until December 1, 2023, the 104th Air Assault Division will be revived on the basis of the 31st Airborne Assault Brigade.
https://svpressa-ru.translate.goog/war21/article/385944/?utm_source=warfiles.ru&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en
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