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    World Economic News and Discussion

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    Firebird


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    Post  Firebird Tue Apr 14, 2015 9:47 am

    The problem is that GDP is just a silly figure which doesnt make any sense. Its like two corner shops selling the same pallet of stock to each other all day long. Then saying "look our turnover is massive, we are huge companies".

    Russia could do it the Anglo way. Charge 50% tax. Private health care and education ie the same system just with everyone being charged massively for. Massive taxes on fuel etc. Then give everyone an English style "tax credit" ie send that money back to them. Then it could send a huge trail of debt around the world, hidden in hedged instruments that no one at all understands. The citizens would be indebted to the banks or lose their homes. And the banks would make shit up on their loan books and sell the debt off to unsuspecting countries like Iceland/the 3rd World etc. If the 3rd World rocked the boat, they'd be threatened with war/destruction/regime change.

    So no one would break or question the system because it would wipe them out too.

    GDP would go up gigantically. But it wouldn't actually do anything or benefit anyone.

    THe US centric veneer is all bullshit. And thats someone in finance speaking.
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    Post  flamming_python Tue Apr 14, 2015 9:48 am

    sepheronx wrote:They seem to be looking mostly at Ruble value and not actual value of its economy. Russias tough year is this year and next year not so much. Actually, while Ruble is very low now, it benefits them more. It. Is lower than Mexican Peso thus why they assume Mexico's economy, which isnt really weak. Mexico has their problems but they are a strong growing nation with a relative high growth rate. They are a very industrious country mostly.

    The other interesting tidbit is that in 2008/9 they predicted doom for Russia when the year prior they predicted major growth. But 2008/9 Russia saw a GDP decline of 9% and the ruble was still same value then as it was early last year so they faced a real decline. This year, a huge decline, is mostly in currency value. But production has stayed mostly the same (growth in various other areas mixed in with major decline in automotive) so its balanced while rubles value softened the blow for low oil prices. If they keep currency in the 50's, even if Oil goes up, they would be laughing.

    The chart takes all this year and multipies it by 15 more or less. So in other words, they expect this years trend to happen for the next 15 years. Which is of course, complete bull. We may see economies collapsing due to excessive debt and China may lose a lot but gain a lot in other areas while Iran may see massive growth in coming years.

    Just look at previous charts, I dont think a single one came true. Add in that most economic troubles happen all of a sudden and were not predicted. Also, dunno why an Agriculture group is doing such a study.

    One thing to look at is the de-dollarization. Once the world moves away from the dollar towards inter currency exchanges, the US cannot simply print at major rates like they could before, thus they will eventually need to pay off their debts and reduce deficite to the point they need a surplus. This will in turn greatly reduce living standards and commodity and housing market will fall too. Benefit will be is that they will gear closer to a real economy and spend within reason vs the grotesque system now.

    Mexico is a developing nation with huge problems with pollution, education, urban overpopulation, crime, housing, etc...
    They don't even have control over all their territory; large parts of north Mexico are effectively controlled by bandit groups and drug barons with the government authority there being only normal.

    It's a complete joke to compare the economy of a nation on that level of development even with a nation such as Russia; where the population is housed, well-educated, the healthcare system is adequate and its citizens are generally guaranteed the protection of the government.

    These statistics were blatantly just scaled up to account for estimated population increases over the next few decades; keeping all other countries constant.
    Therefore they just took countries like Mexico, and Brazil and said - oh look, according to the UN population estimates (already proved wrong in Russia's case); they will have a larger population than Russia by that time - therefore they will have a larger economy.
    Completely preposterous.


    Last edited by flamming_python on Tue Apr 14, 2015 9:51 am; edited 1 time in total
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    Firebird


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    Post  Firebird Tue Apr 14, 2015 9:51 am

    sepheronx wrote:They seem to be looking mostly at Ruble value and not actual value of its economy. Russias tough year is this year and next year not so much. Actually, while Ruble is very low now, it benefits them more. It. Is lower than Mexican Peso thus why they assume Mexico's economy, which isnt really weak. Mexico has their problems but they are a strong growing nation with a relative high growth rate. They are a very industrious country mostly.

    The other interesting tidbit is that in 2008/9 they predicted doom for Russia when the year prior they predicted major growth. But 2008/9 Russia saw a GDP decline of 9% and the ruble was still same value then as it was early last year so they faced a real decline. This year, a huge decline, is mostly in currency value. But production has stayed mostly the same (growth in various other areas mixed in with major decline in automotive) so its balanced while rubles value softened the blow for low oil prices. If they keep currency in the 50's, even if Oil goes up, they would be laughing.

    The chart takes all this year and multipies it by 15 more or less. So in other words, they expect this years trend to happen for the next 15 years. Which is of course, complete bull. We may see economies collapsing due to excessive debt and China may lose a lot but gain a lot in other areas while Iran may see massive growth in coming years.

    Just look at previous charts, I dont think a single one came true. Add in that most economic troubles happen all of a sudden and were not predicted. Also, dunno why an Agriculture group is doing such a study.

    One thing to look at is the de-dollarization. Once the world moves away from the dollar towards inter currency exchanges, the US cannot simply print at major rates like they could before, thus they will eventually need to pay off their debts and reduce deficite to the point they need a surplus. This will in turn greatly reduce living standards and commodity and housing market will fall too. Benefit will be is that they will gear closer to a real economy and spend within reason vs the grotesque system now.

    Sure the figures might look nice in Mex.
    But the class system is really disturbing. I notice in the Mayan Riviera. You have villas/condos. Then you have plain looking apartments. Then you have corrugated steel roof shanteys. And finally you have shit thats made from grass, which I thought only existed in the Amazon and Africa.

    So 1% of Mex is "rich". 15% is 1st world. 15% "lower first world". Then the rest is 3rd world (shantys) and what I'd call "4th world" (grass huts).

    USDA must think we're as dim as they are.
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    Post  flamming_python Tue Apr 14, 2015 9:54 am

    Firebird wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:They seem to be looking mostly at Ruble value and not actual value of its economy. Russias tough year is this year and next year not so much. Actually, while Ruble is very low now, it benefits them more. It. Is lower than Mexican Peso thus why they assume Mexico's economy, which isnt really weak. Mexico has their problems but they are a strong growing nation with a relative high growth rate. They are a very industrious country mostly.

    The other interesting tidbit is that in 2008/9 they predicted doom for Russia when the year prior they predicted major growth. But 2008/9 Russia saw a GDP decline of 9% and the ruble was still same value then as it was early last year so they faced a real decline. This year, a huge decline, is mostly in currency value. But production has stayed mostly the same (growth in various other areas mixed in with major decline in automotive) so its balanced while rubles value softened the blow for low oil prices. If they keep currency in the 50's, even if Oil goes up, they would be laughing.

    The chart takes all this year and multipies it by 15 more or less. So in other words, they expect this years trend to happen for the next 15 years. Which is of course, complete bull. We may see economies collapsing due to excessive debt and China may lose a lot but gain a lot in other areas while Iran may see massive growth in coming years.

    Just look at previous charts, I dont think a single one came true. Add in that most economic troubles happen all of a sudden and were not predicted. Also, dunno why an Agriculture group is doing such a study.

    One thing to look at is the de-dollarization. Once the world moves away from the dollar towards inter currency exchanges, the US cannot simply print at major rates like they could before, thus they will eventually need to pay off their debts and reduce deficite to the point they need a surplus. This will in turn greatly reduce living standards and commodity and housing market will fall too. Benefit will be is that they will gear closer to a real economy and spend within reason vs the grotesque system now.

    Sure the figures might look nice in Mex.
    But the class system is really disturbing. I notice in the Mayan Riviera. You have villas/condos. Then you have plain looking apartments. Then you have corrugated steel roof shanteys. And finally you have shit thats made from grass, which I thought only existed in the Amazon and Africa.

    So 1% of Mex is "rich". 15% is 1st world. 15% "lower first world". Then the rest is 3rd world (shantys) and what I'd call "4th world" (grass huts).

    USDA must think we're as dim as they are.

    I hear the healthcare system in Mexico has been reformed quite successfully and is now a model for other nations in the region to follow.

    Certainly something to be proud of - but I doubt they will solve all their major issues within the next 15 years; and any one of these things can become a huge impediment to economic progress.
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Apr 14, 2015 10:02 am

    Fair enough, I was basing on Mexican industrial production. Regardless what one member here says, Russia is advanced in production, since they are second bigest industrial country. They will now have to work on getting their end goods outside the country and CIS. Already happening too. Furniture to Europe, cars, electronics, heavy industrial equipment to Africa/middle east, etc.
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    Post  Austin Thu Apr 16, 2015 2:35 am

    Check Jim Rickards Interview very Scarry with Interesting with Stastics

    Please go through the entire interview


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    Post  sepheronx Wed Jun 03, 2015 3:37 pm

    This Is How The IMF Just Lost Its Last Shred Of Credibility
    How The Market Reacts To Greek "News"
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    Post  Austin Sun Jul 19, 2015 3:39 am

    Must Watch to understand Western Economy mess

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    Post  Hannibal Barca Sun Jul 19, 2015 1:31 pm

    God I am speechless. "What will happen when US economy goes busted and dollar devalues to the bottom of the ocean?" "The first thing we will face is a 9mm ammo shortage".
    Please don;t listen this crap. Shrinks brain mass by 10%.
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Thu Jul 23, 2015 3:41 am

    China's Record Dumping Of US Treasuries Leaves Goldman Speechless
    On Friday, alongside China's announcement that it had bought over 600 tons of gold in "one month", the PBOC released another very important data point: its total foreign exchange reserves, which declined by $17.3 billion to $3,694 billion.
    George1
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    Post  George1 Fri Aug 07, 2015 10:44 am

    Tehran to Alter Economic and Political Landscape of Middle East

    Businesses from around the world will flock to Tehran, as Iran has one of the most lucrative and promising markets in terms of future growth, Fabien Baussart, President of the Center of Political and Foreign Affairs (CPFA), a think-tank, told Sputnik in an interview.

    Last month, Iran and the P5+1 group signed a historic agreement that ensures the peaceful nature of Tehran’s nuclear program. As a result, Iran has been released from economic sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union (EU) and the United Nations (UN).

    With these changes taking place, Iran will now open up new business and trade opportunities.

    “Naturally, a number of businessmen and politicians will rush to Tehran… some believe that the total value of potential contracts in Iran could reach $200 billion,” Baussart told Sputnik.

    Furthermore, the end of the sanctions also means that Iran is no longer a “rogue” state in international politics. The world has got itself a powerful player in the Middle East.

    Although nobody knows exactly what Iran’s position will be during the settlement of the Syrian conflict, Tehran could drastically shift the balance of power in the Middle East, Baussart said.

    When asked whether US Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif deserve the Nobel Peace Prize for doing an outstanding job in forging the Iranian nuclear agreement, the French expert said he doesn’t agree with the intentions of the Nobel Prize committee.

    At least three other people, including Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev and EU High Representative Catherine Ashton, also deserve the praise.

    “If the Nobel Peace Prize is awarded to these five personalities, that would be the best representation of the reality,” Baussart concluded.

    Read more: http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150807/1025502054.html#ixzz3i8WndtPl
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    Post  sepheronx Wed Aug 19, 2015 2:07 am

    Vietnam Can't Keep Currency Up - Devalues Dong 3rd Time This Year, Widened Trading Bands

    The best are the comments.

    can't keep the dong up?

    "VIETNAM CENTRAL BANK WIDENS DONG TRADING BAND"

    Yeah, that's what a shrinking Dong will say every time. "If you would just tighten your policy, honey...."

    Sorry higurashihougi, but your countries currency does open itself up to the humor.
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    Post  sepheronx Wed Aug 19, 2015 2:08 am

    23 Nations Around The World Where Stock Market Crashes Are Already Happening
    Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

    You can stop waiting for a global financial crisis to happen. The truth is that one is happening right now. All over the world, stock markets are already crashing. Most of these stock market crashes are occurring in nations that are known as “emerging markets”. In recent years, developing countries in Asia, South America and Africa loaded up on lots of cheap loans that were denominated in U.S. dollars. But now that the U.S. dollar has been surging, those borrowers are finding that it takes much more of their own local currencies to service those loans. At the same time, prices are crashing for many of the commodities that those countries export. The exact same kind of double whammy caused the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s and the Asian financial crisis of the 1990s.

    As you read this article, almost every single stock market in the world is down significantly from a record high that was set either earlier this year or late in 2014. But even though stocks have been sliding in the western world, they haven’t completely collapsed just yet.

    In much of the developing world, it is a very different story. Emerging market currencies are crashing hard, recessions are starting, and equity prices are getting absolutely hammered.

    Posted below is a list that I put together of 23 nations around the world where stock market crashes are already happening. To see the stock market chart for each country, just click the link…

    1. Malaysia

    2. Brazil

    3. Egypt

    4. China

    5. Indonesia

    6. South Korea

    7. Turkey

    8. Chile

    9. Colombia

    10. Peru

    11. Bulgaria

    12. Greece

    13. Poland

    14. Serbia

    15. Slovenia

    16. Ukraine

    17. Ghana

    18. Kenya

    19. Morocco

    20. Nigeria

    21. Singapore

    22. Taiwan

    23. Thailand

    Of course this is just the beginning. The western world is going to feel this kind of pain as well very soon. I want to share with you an excerpt from an article that just appeared in the Telegraph entitled “Doomsday clock for global market crash strikes one minute to midnight as central banks lose control“. You see, the Telegraph is not just one of the most important newspapers in the UK – it is truly one of the most important newspapers in the entire world. When it speaks on financial matters, millions of people listen very carefully. So for the Telegraph to declare that the countdown to a “global market crash” is “one minute to midnight” is a very, very big deal…

    When the banking crisis crippled global markets seven years ago, central bankers stepped in as lenders of last resort. Profligate private-sector loans were moved on to the public-sector balance sheet and vast money-printing gave the global economy room to heal.

    Time is now rapidly running out. From China to Brazil, the central banks have lost control and at the same time the global economy is grinding to a halt. It is only a matter of time before stock markets collapse under the weight of their lofty expectations and record valuations.
    I encourage you to read the rest of that excellent article right here. It contains lots of charts and graphs, and it discusses many of the exact same things that I have been hammering on for months.

    When one of the newspapers of record for the entire planet starts sounding exactly like The Economic Collapse Blog, then you know that it is late in the game.

    Others are sounding the alarm about an imminent global financial crash as well. For example, just consider what Egon von Greyerz recently told King World News…

    Eric, I fear that this coming September – October all hell will break loose in the world economy and markets. A lot of factors point to that, both fundamental and technical indicators and this indicates that we could have a number of shocks this autumn.

    Sadly, most investors will hold stocks, bonds and property and will see any decline in value as an opportunity. It will be a long time and a very big fall before they realize that the system will not help them this time because the central bankers have run out of ammunition to save the global financial system one more time. Yes, we will see more massive money printing, but it will just make things worse. And at some stage, which could be quite soon, real fear will set in, a fear of a magnitude the world has not experienced before.
    Hmm – there is another example of someone talking about September. It is funny how often that month keeps coming up.

    And of course most of the major stock market crashes in U.S. history have been in the fall. Just go back and take a look at what happened in 1929, 1987, 2001 and 2008.

    The “smart money” has been pulling their money out of stocks for quite a while now, and at this point a lot of others have hopped on the bandwagon. The following comes from CNBC…

    The flight of investor money from U.S. stocks has turned into a stampede.

    In fact, the $78.7 billion leaving domestic equity-focused funds has been worse in 2015 than it was even during the financial crisis years, when the S&P 500 tumbled some 60 percent, according to data released Friday by Morningstar. The total is the highest since 1993.

    Domestic equity funds surrendered $20.4 billion in July alone and have seen $158.6 billion in redemptions over the past 12 months. Even a strong flow of money into passively managed exchange-traded funds has been unable to offset the stream to the exit among retail investors, who generally focus more on mutual funds than ETFs.
    A global financial crisis has already begun.

    So those that were claiming that one would not happen in 2015 are already wrong.

    Over the coming months we will find out how bad it will ultimately be.

    Sometimes I get criticized for talking about these things. There are a few people out there that don’t like all of the “doom and gloom” that I discuss on my website. Apparently it is a bad thing to talk about the things that really matter and we should all just be “keeping up with the Kardashians” instead.

    I consider myself just to be another watchman on the wall. From our spots on the wall, watchmen such as myself all over the nation are sounding the alarm about what we clearly see coming.

    If we saw what was coming and we did not warn the people, their blood would be on our hands. But if we do warn the people, then we have done our duty.

    Every day I just do the best that I can with what I have been given. And there are many others just like me that are doing exactly the same thing.

    Those that do not like the warning message are going to feel really stupid when things start falling apart all around them and they finally realize how wrong they truly were.
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    Post  max steel Wed Aug 19, 2015 4:11 am

    Chi ese stock crash has nothi g to do with its economy.
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    Post  George1 Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:44 pm

    Kazakhstan president asks national exporters for currency

    Kazakhstan is shifting to a new economic policy, which implies free floating national currency defined by market demand

    ASTANA, August 20 /TASS/. Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev has urged national exporters to provide the republic with currency earnings.

    "I am urging all our exporters to provide the country with currency earnings. All this will certainly lie on the government. All currency earnings should be sold inside the country if possible. I am asking the government to coordinate this work," Nazarbayev said at a meeting with the Kazakhstani business community on Thursday.

    The president also urged the government to give up the policy of supporting all enterprises. "Millions of farmers go bankrupt in the United States. In this county, bankruptcy turns into bureaucratic foot-dragging while enterprises stand at a standstill. The government should give up its policy of indiscriminate support of all enterprises," Nazarbayev told the businessmen.

    He explained that the state should support only competitive and profit-making companies.

    The president ordered the National Bank to introduce a mechanism of compensation of individual’s fixed deposits. "This measure will help supporting 1.7 million people and 86% of all the depositors. We cannot allow the social feeling to deteriorate and should prevent a decline in people’s living standards," the Kazakhstani leader said.

    He added that the current financial crisis was worse than the previous financial turmoil.

    "When the financial crisis that started at US banks hit the financial system, we faced a crisis from which we had emerged with minor losses," the Kazakhstani president said. "But the present-day realities are different. They cover everything, including the finances and industry, and who knows what is in store for us. No expert can really say that," Nazarbayev said.

    He also warned the forthcoming years could be hard and promised to punish all saboteurs who would like to use the current hardships to destabilize the situation in Kazakhstan.

    "The law enforcers have received an instruction to stop any provocative actions," Nazarbayev stressed.

    "They have only themselves to blame. We are doing it conscientiously for the well-being of our citizens and the country’s prosperity," the Kazakhstani president concluded.

    Kazakhstan shifting to new economic policy

    Kazakhstan is shifting to a new economic policy, which implies free floating national currency defined by market demand, Prime Minister Karim Masimov said on Thursday.

    "Starting from August 20 of the current year, a decision has been made to begin implementing a new economic policy based on inflation targeting, and cancel exchange rate corridor. The tenge’s exchange rate will now depend on the global economic environment," PM said. "The new economic policy amid fundamental negative changes in the global economy requires a new monetary policy to provide a balance between economic growth and stability of prices," he added.

    The dollar surged by 29.2% in Kazakhstan on Thursday to 255.8 tenge versus 197.9 tenge the bay before.

    The free floating national currency increases the potential of Kazakh enterprises on the market of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Minister of National Economy Erbolat Dossayev told TASS on Thursday.

    "For Kazakhstan’s economy, for Kazakh producers of goods and services the shift to a new exchange rate policy opens up markets. I can say that Russia and China are the main markets where we may be competitive today," the Minister said. "We have the same economic structure as the Russian Federation, both countries are now oriented toward export when the bulk of revenues depend on export of commodities," he said, adding that integration into global economy brings both pluses and minuses to the country, and the key task for the EAEU member-states is "accelerated diversification of economy."

    The government of Kazakhstan plans to introduce a number of tax breaks for oil and gas producers in the nearest months. "In September, a decision will be taken on pegging export tariff duty to oil price, and the Government will stop directive regulation," Masimov said.
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    Post  sepheronx Fri Oct 02, 2015 4:10 pm

    "They Just Don't Want A Job" - The Fed's Grotesque "Explanation" Why 94.6 Million Are Out Of The Labor Force
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Fri Oct 02, 2015 4:19 pm

    Even Credit Suisse believes multi-polarity is inevitable:

    Credit Suisse – Is globalization coming to an end? New research signals a possible shift away from globalization to a multi-polar world

    The Credit Suisse Research Institute today released its “The End of Globalization or a More Multipolar World” report, presenting three scenarios: ‘globalization thrives,’ ‘a multipolar world emerges at economic, political and social levels’ and, more dramatically, ‘globalization comes to an end.’ The research signals a possible shift away from globalization to a multi-polar world.

    https://www.credit-suisse.com/ch/en/about-us/media/news/articles/media-releases/2015/09/en/credit-suisse-is-globalization-coming-to-an-end.html
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    Post  sepheronx Fri Oct 02, 2015 9:42 pm

    Why The US Running Out Of Cash In 4 Weeks Is Good News
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    Post  max steel Thu Oct 08, 2015 4:06 pm

    Renminbi overtakes Japanese yen as 4th most global payments currency
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    Post  max steel Thu Oct 08, 2015 5:36 pm

    China launches Yuan based International Payment System
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    Post  higurashihougi Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:16 am

    I never never accept TPP from the beginning, therefore I would like to give wikileaks and RT 100000 likes for this information.

    https://www.rt.com/usa/318146-tpp-wikileaks-intellectual-property/

    'TPP would cost lives': WikiLeaks unveils full intellectual property chapter
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    Post  Werewolf Sat Oct 10, 2015 1:14 am

    higurashihougi wrote:I never never accept TPP from the beginning, therefore I would like to give wikileaks and RT 100000 likes for this information.

    https://www.rt.com/usa/318146-tpp-wikileaks-intellectual-property/

    'TPP would cost lives': WikiLeaks unveils full intellectual property chapter

    A good comment right there

    "What is writen ink we can rewrite in blood"
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Sat Oct 10, 2015 4:32 am

    TPP will benefit Vietnam way more than Canada. We are effectively screwed in Canada due to TPP. I figure the people who sign up for it are nothing but traitors.
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    Post  Werewolf Sat Oct 10, 2015 4:57 am

    sepheronx wrote:TPP will benefit Vietnam way more than Canada.  We are effectively screwed in Canada due to TPP.  I figure the people who sign up for it are nothing but traitors.

    TTIP won't benefit anyone but elites in US, it will open havoc to industries, health of population and minimum wage laws will be lifted sooner or later. Slave labour with genetic MSO genocide and pharmaindustry like in US were all hospitals are private and you pay 400-800 USD for 1 liter salty water for infusion.
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    Post  sepheronx Sat Oct 10, 2015 5:00 am

    Werewolf wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:TPP will benefit Vietnam way more than Canada.  We are effectively screwed in Canada due to TPP.  I figure the people who sign up for it are nothing but traitors.

    TTIP won't benefit anyone but elites in US, it will open havoc to industries, health of population and minimum wage laws will be lifted sooner or later. Slave labour with genetic MSO genocide and pharmaindustry like in US were all hospitals are private and you pay 400-800 USD for 1 liter salty water for infusion.

    I don't think it will pass all nations parliament. But there is a chance that it might. I wonder if people will end up going to the streets? Doubt it, as people are pretty damn lazy.

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