Syrian Civil War: News #3

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:A nice infographic:
Can we finally admit that this is a religious war?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CSksRQZWEAA2BdK.jpg:large

No its not, even though west always portray it as such. Inside Syria its a mix that make up the SAA which include sunni's and President Assad is not just supported by Alawites, but also Sunni's among others.
Iran and Iraqi fighters might have came in just to support their Shia brothers to fight against the Islamic terrorists attacking their shrines, but Syrian Govt and SAA is not fighting it on a sectarian/religious angle, instead they are fighting the internationally organized terrorist groups, which unfortunately happen to be full of Sunni's.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:A nice infographic:
Can we finally admit that this is a religious war?

Who cares? Shia's don't touch christians so I hope they literally exterminate the salafist and wahabists. Like I said, christians in middle east should ally themselves with shia's because both are in a minority and both have a common enemy.

Vann7 wrote:

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Well... to tip the balance of power Iran would have to deploy at least a division-sized force for Aleppo frontline and 2 other divisions in Idlib and Daraa... at best with a heavy armored component... a few thousand Basij guys aren't going to change much and SAA is losing 1500-2000 dead/month and these casualties can't be sustained forever.

Indeed IRAN is the biggest deception in the entire conflict. It can't be real that Hezbolah
that is not an army ,but a paramilitary group that have no tanks ,no airforce ,no navy ,not advance weapons ,not the budget of a country have 5,000 to 10,000 forces in Syria.. And
that a nation like IRAN ,with the biggest ARmy in the muslin world, around 2.5 million soldiers
with half a million active staff.  Only send 2,000 forces ,that are mostly Iraqui volunteers. half
of them that originally were sent to defend a stupid religious shia building in Syria while people
were being slaughtered in the nation by terrorist.  And This "help" that IRAN give syria comes
only because Syria and IRAN have a "mutual defense pact" that in case one nation attacked the
other will help.. a Pact that Iran have shoved on the rear and have not followed since
the capture of IDlib in Syria was done by Turkey/Saudi Undercover ARmy invasion and IRAN remained silent and did not move a finger.  the least they could do is send at very least 10,000 to 15,000 well armed soldiers with a couple of dozens tanks and couple of dozen of combat jets to help Assad recapture the City.  But nothing of that. Not a single Iranian Tank or Iranian Air force sent to Syria.. IRAN mantra for 4 years have been the need for Syria "to solve its issues with its "opposition" through politics.  And the only reason IRAN send a force ,is to not look like idiots after Russia that have no defense pact with Syria sent its airforce. RUssia alone
for example have a larger military army presence in Syria , for the security of Latakia military base ,larger than the Iranian force helping the Syrian army in the offense.

This is why Syria will need to rethink their foreign policy and know well that Iran is not a
first class ,neither second partner and cannot count on IRAN in case any war start with any of their neighbors. IRAN is only an opportunistic partner that only give some help to not lose
face and influence in Syria after Russia jumped to help.

Syria only real allies in the conflict are Russia and hezbolah but also IRAQ ,that have been
very constructive in their relations with Syria. Egypt could also be a potential allies.. they
told not long ago..that were ready to help Russia in the fight against ISIS with its airforce.

If it wasn't for Iran, Syria would of fallen a long time ago. It was the iranians that persuaded Hezbollah, iraqi shias and paid shias from pakistan, afghanistan to fight there. They have also given them economic loans and funds.
If Russia acted like this in 2012 or in the beginning of 2013 it would of handed a victory to Assad. But they acted too late and now they best case scenario is that Syria hold it's current territory.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Well... to tip the balance of power Iran would have to deploy at least a division-sized force for Aleppo frontline and 2 other divisions in Idlib and Daraa... at best with a heavy armored component... a few thousand Basij guys aren't going to change much and SAA is losing 1500-2000 dead/month and these casualties can't be sustained forever.

How about deploying dozens of armed UAV's and killing the terrorists groups sitting inside cabin? I would prefer this option (unfortunately we only have Chinese drones with limited payload as option) in the populated areas rather than sacrificing the SAA to snipers and rockets/missiles. Terrorists needs to be killed and eliminated in good numbers on a daily basis, which is the only way that will help SAA to retake such areas with minimal casualities.

Iranian casualities needs to be controlled coz if it continue to increase to an 'unacceptable' level it will at some point make internal problems for the Iranian Govt and such internal problems are to be avoided at the maximum at this stage.

Monarchist wrote:If it wasn't for Iran, Syria would of fallen a long time ago. It was the iranians that persuaded Hezbollah, iraqi shias and paid shias from pakistan, afghanistan to fight there. They have also given them economic loans and funds.
If Russia acted like this in 2012 or in the beginning of 2013 it would of handed a victory to Assad. But they acted too late and now they best case scenario is that Syria hold it's current territory.

Iran is doing a highly commendable job and a sacrifice and everyone appreciates it. But Iran does not/did not have the military might or the diplomatic clout to stop a US led strike on Syria. There was and is only one nation on the planet that have the capacity to stop/divert a full scale attack and that was/is Russia!

There is no doubt Russia acted late and it can be attributed to the lack of clarity initially on the situation and the course of action to be charted. Initial blunders Russia made was instead of reinforcing its Tartus base and supporting Syrian Govt militarily, they started pulling personals out. Russia probably did not send in/reinforce their facilities earlier as they probably felt US/west would take it as an escalation from the Russian side and they will escalate it further making it much harder for the Syrian. But Russia was wrong, again, on western intention, who went on escalating the situation to such an extend that Russia had no other option but to intervene to put back some sanity.

Bad news -
heavy rains expected during the weekend and first days of the next week in Syria.
It means, that the long-awaited massive ground attack in/around Aleppo won't happen any time soon...

Dima wrote:

Monarchist wrote:If it wasn't for Iran, Syria would of fallen a long time ago. It was the iranians that persuaded Hezbollah, iraqi shias and paid shias from pakistan, afghanistan to fight there. They have also given them economic loans and funds.
If Russia acted like this in 2012 or in the beginning of 2013 it would of handed a victory to Assad. But they acted too late and now they best case scenario is that Syria hold it's current territory.

Iran is doing a highly commendable job and a sacrifice and everyone appreciates it. But Iran does not/did not have the military might or the diplomatic clout to stop a US led strike on Syria. There was and is only one nation on the planet that have the capacity to stop/divert a full scale attack and that was/is Russia!

There is no doubt Russia acted late and it can be attributed to the lack of clarity initially on the situation and the course of action to be charted. Initial blunders Russia made was instead of reinforcing its Tartus base and supporting Syrian Govt militarily, they started pulling personals out. Russia probably did not send in/reinforce their facilities earlier as they probably felt US/west would take it as an escalation from the Russian side and they will escalate it further making it much harder for the Syrian. But Russia was wrong, again, on western intention, who went on escalating the situation to such an extend that Russia had no other option but to intervene to put back some sanity.

I think there are some strategic points being missed here.

First Russia. Many have assumed from the moves of the US that one of its very long term objectives is to minimise the importance of Russia in the world. It was doing rather well at this until Putin arrived. It was then that a decision seems to have been taken to fight back but, that as it would take time and money, the US would have to be lulled into a false sense of security as Russia moved forward. Hence, as in the post in the Russia support thread, the "more rust than ready" Russian Navy amongst other things. This strategy could underlie the lack of significant response in Ukraine last year, not poking the US until it had to, buying another year. Also the very quiet support of Syria until it was backed into a corner and had to act. Then when it did finally had to expose some capabilities, we found out, from the squeals from the Pentagon, just how successful the Russian plan had been over the years.

This strategy had its down side, last year's financial war, the dead and injured in Ukraine and Syria, but there has always been collateral damage at the edge of power struggles, it is just that in the latter case with modern weaponry that damage is often bigger and quicker. But the up side is that Russia is far better placed to defend its interest than it was even a year ago and that is what is really important in Ukraine and Syria.

Almost certainly Russia was aware that the US/Saudi/Turkey/(maybe Israel) would do everything they could to topple Assad and replace him with a Western oriented figurehead but it had to wait, and that must have hurt a lot, until the time was right. When it was they struck, as we have seen, hard.

It is almost the same story with Iran. Everyone in the West's enemy, especially the Israel/US partnership, heavily sanctioned, with Israel desperate for a lapse so they could attack. It was not until those threats were removed, with the the Nuclear Agreement going through at the moment, that Iran could start to protect its interests outside its borders. It is still not totally in the clear so we are currently only seeing the start of what Iran is likely to do in Syria, again they do not want to expose too much yet.

If this stays a local war and not the start of WW3, I suppose that in the historical analysis of this war it will be the over reliance by the anti Assad forces on a volunteer army, ISIS (quantity not quality) with its slow progress (as opposed to what trained soldiers with proper hardware could have achieved) causing the delay that gave an opening to the Russian/Iranians to walk through with worldwide support.

We are on the sidelines of what could turn out to be a huge disaster for the strategic planners in Washington and a historical moment for Moscow.

So the incoming US Special Forces are there for training not combat. Just what they signed up for. Hope for all our sakes that they are not in a training camp targeted by the RuAF.

WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — Deployment of US special operations forces to Syria will enhance military capabilities of opposition forces fighting the Islamic State, White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest said in a briefing on Friday.

US President Barack Obama “does expect that they can have an impact in intensifying strategy for building the capacity of local forces inside of Syria to take in the fight on the ground to ISIL [Islamic State] in their own country,” Earnest said.

The press secretary added that US advisors to Syria do not have a combat mission.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/world/20151030/1029359006/us-advisers-in-syria-whit-house.html#ixzz3q4rkp61r

JohninMK wrote:So the incoming US Special Forces are there for training not combat. Just what they signed up for. Hope for all our sakes that they are not in a training camp targeted by the RuAF.

WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — Deployment of US special operations forces to Syria will enhance military capabilities of opposition forces fighting the Islamic State, White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest said in a briefing on Friday.

US President Barack Obama “does expect that they can have an impact in intensifying strategy for building the capacity of local forces inside of Syria to take in the fight on the ground to ISIL [Islamic State] in their own country,” Earnest said.

The press secretary added that US advisors to Syria do not have a combat mission.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/world/20151030/1029359006/us-advisers-in-syria-whit-house.html#ixzz3q4rkp61r

They are committing a crime by supporting their propped up terrorists to whom they call rebels.

“militants, meet Russian Mi-24 attack helicopter"

South Front update, hard work taking Aleppo

Your critique of weak Iranian and Russian support and late actions doesn't take the human reality into account. And the reality is that the civilian society is an incredibly naive, stupid, foolish and short-sighted. Even after all that had happened, there are pro-West tards in Russia, not just the usual paid scum, deranged lunatics but actual people, ordinary ones, buying into Hollywood propaganda. How much of Russian public was aware of growing hatred and the scale of rampant Russophobia in Ukraine? Ask yourself, shouldn't the normal reaction after having seen all the rants, chants, crimes and murders perpetrated by Ukrops, be one of a desire for justice and vengeance? What puzzles is me the fact that there are millions of Ukrainians working in Russia, many of them from very obvious anti-Russian areas. And even worse, people don't find anything wrong with the presence of Maidan or Ukrainian nationalist sympathizers in Russia proper.

No, apparently the average Ivan enjoys his prosperity these days, having witnessed the 90s, and doesn't care at all about some distant "diaspora", national security or interests. That is the sad reality. There are such members here, and I speak from experience, having heard or read both Croat and Serb reasoning in similar conditions. As long it's not actually them, they prefer being left alone and leaving other people to their unfortunate fate, at mercy of their enemies.

Had Russia even tried to help Syria when the onslaught of moderate ritualistic cannibals, headchoppers and imported terrorists began, there would be a very loud and visible protest campaign, the MSM would go full turboretard mode etc. Imagine, even after all clearly hostile acts, which would in pre-nuclear era equal declarations of war (coup, Ukraine, sanctions, oil cartel etc.) there are many people not in favour of actions in Ukraine or Syria. Just look at how even the family of a deceased Russian servicemen is full of shit.

Had Iran and Russia from the start intervened, that would make Syria look like a puppet state, whose masters want to preserve its illegitimate government. Imagine the field day all those notorious "experts" and "analysts" would have.

In my humble opinion, Russia performed admirably given the conditions and advarsaries. And the bastards got too confident, which translated into hundreds of well-known and marked targets for Russian planes to eliminate. The rapidly growing number of famous terrorists being eliminated in a mere fraction of total duration of the war speaks for itself. As do those footages of Russian airstrikes. And remember, the more they move and try to influence the turning tide, the more they will be exposed to airstrikes.

Here's some good news, the SAA took Al-Duwayr the last town along the M5 highway before the Al nusra stronghold of Talbiseh. I really looks like the SAA may be able to finally drain the swamp around Homs.

Result of: "8 hours of substantial Syria talks in Vienna. Difficult but constructive: we have enough common ground to start UN led political process" - Federica Mogherini

Militarov wrote:

Result of: "8 hours of substantial Syria talks in Vienna. Difficult but constructive: we have enough common ground to start UN led political process" - Federica Mogherini

How can the US even agree to point number one when they are illegally sending their military into the sovereign state of syria without permission?

Rodinazombie wrote:

Militarov wrote:

Result of: "8 hours of substantial Syria talks in Vienna. Difficult but constructive: we have enough common ground to start UN led political process" - Federica Mogherini

How can the US even agree to point number one when they are illegally sending their military into the sovereign state of syria without permission?

What part of 1. has been violated?

PapaDragon wrote:

JohninMK wrote:So the incoming US Special Forces are there for training not combat. Just what they signed up for. Hope for all our sakes that they are not in a training camp targeted by the RuAF.

WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — Deployment of US special operations forces to Syria will enhance military capabilities of opposition forces fighting the Islamic State, White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest said in a briefing on Friday.

US President Barack Obama “does expect that they can have an impact in intensifying strategy for building the capacity of local forces inside of Syria to take in the fight on the ground to ISIL [Islamic State] in their own country,” Earnest said.

The press secretary added that US advisors to Syria do not have a combat mission.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/world/20151030/1029359006/us-advisers-in-syria-whit-house.html#ixzz3q4rkp61r

Well as long as they stick with Kurds in northeast they should be in the clear although in that case they might risk getting fragged by Turks...

Wouldn't that be an interesting situation, i guess it'll mean war with the Turks.

Zivo wrote:Here's some good news, the SAA took Al-Duwayr the last town along the M5 highway before the Al nusra stronghold of Talbiseh. I really looks like the SAA may be able to finally drain the swamp around Homs.

In the same area...

Jabal Al-Sha’ar Captured by the SAA

The SAA and allies have captured the remaining gas fields of Jabal Al-Sha’ar (Poet Mountains) in east Homs.
http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/isis-suffers-biggest-setback-syria-jabal-al-shaar-captured-saa/

And a couple more important developments

Syrian Army and Hezbollah Enter Strategic City (Khan Touman) in Southern Aleppo - first time since 2013 (atm, they control about 50%)

...Should the Syrian Armed Forces take full control of Khan Touman, they will be in position to cutoff the imperative Aleppo-Damascus International Highway that is used by the Islamist rebels from the Syrian Al-Qaeda group “Jabhat Al-Nusra” and Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham to resupply their comrades in southern Aleppo.

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-and-hezbollah-enter-strategic-city-in-southern-aleppo/

Republican Guard Forces Capture Hosh Al-‘Admil in Rural Damascus

the Syrian Arab Army’s 105th Brigade of the Republican Guard – in coordination with the National Defense Forces (NDF) of Damascus City and Palestine Liberation Army (PLA) – have imposed full control over the town of Hosh Al-‘Admil and its surrounding farms after a series of intense firefights with the Islamist rebels of Jaysh Al-Islam (Army of Islam) in the East Ghouta (collection of farms) region of Damascus.

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-republican-guard-forces-capture-hosh-al-admil-in-rural-damascus/

The Syrian army and Hezbollah have taken full control of Khan Touman:

Syrian Army, Hezbollah Retake Full Control over Khan Touman in Aleppo Province

Reports said on Friday that the Syrian army troops and Hezbollah forces opened their way into the strategic town of Khan Touman, and after fierce clashes with the terrorists, the town came under full control of the government forces early on Saturday.

The army and the resistance forces killed hundreds of the foreign-backed terrorists in the battle over capturing Khan Touman.

http://en.abna24.com/service/middle-east-west-asia/archive/2015/10/31/717773/story.html

Situation in southern Aleppo:

Red = before offensive

Green (dark & light) = gains in last two weeks

Tit for tat? See last para.

The Lebanese and Syrian media said Saturday that Israel Air Force warplanes have attacked targets in Syria linked to the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah. Reports varied, however, on the exact targets and location of the strikes. According to a report on the Lebanese Debate website, six IAF jets carried out the strike over the Qalamoun Mountains region of western Syria, and targeted weapons that were headed for Hezbollah, Channel 10 said.

Syrian opposition groups, for their part, claimed Israeli planes had attacked targets in the Damascus area, in two strikes in areas where Hezbollah and pro-Assad forces were centered.

Syrian media, however, said that Israeli warplanes hit several Hezbollah targets in southern Syria.

Israel’s defense establishment declined to comment on the reports of the strikes, which would be the first since Russia boosted its involvement in the Syrian civil war.

Syrian and Iranian media reported Friday that Russia was carrying out air strikes against anti-Assad rebel forces on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights border with Israel.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/report-iaf-hits-syria-arms-convoy-headed-for-hezbollah/

I vomited abit.

Source: https://twitter.com/USEmbassySyria/status/660392066854318080