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Log inGiven the close military ties between Iran and North Korea you can pretty much bet Iran could have nukes any time they wanted to.
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IRAN: Latest and Breaking News
lancelot- Posts : 3190
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nomadski- Posts : 3086
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No they can not . It is not a technical matter , it is political . Those in power , for their own reasons , decided against it and against national interests . Gave it a snazzy " Islamic , " sounding name of " Fatwa ! "
Sujoy- Posts : 2425
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Location : India || भारत
According to Iran, they attacked Iranians who were in Pakistan, and according to Pakistan, they targeted Pakistanis who were in Iran. This supports the idea that this was a staged conflict that both parties consented to.
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nomadski- Posts : 3086
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There are vested interests inside Iran , that want to divert attention from political problems . Those in power know that if their rule was abruptly ended , that many scores will have to be settled . They have shown their willingness to resort to extreme violence against the public . Their rule is nearing it's end . These elements are known by the security and intelligence services , are part of them or protected by them . There is every possibility that terror attacks are entirely engineered internally , and attributed to foreign enemy . The plan seems to be to engage Iran at once , in external and internal conflict , offering the opportunity to further reinforce their political position . This is an old trick , that the right wing reactionary groups adopted during the Iran / Iraq war . Refusing peace by Iraq several times , and using the war and the cries for war , to drown political voices and subvert democracy . For this reason the Iranian military and people , must safely assume that the intelligence and security services and elements within the state are compromised by the enemy . Iran military to only conduct anti-terror operations within and at it's borders .
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Sujoy- Posts : 2425
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Because of this staged attack on Pakistan, Iran has lost credibility.
Questions will now be raised whether Iran genuinely struck mossad affiliated spy base in Erbil and terrorist in Idlib.
Questions will now be raised whether Iran genuinely struck mossad affiliated spy base in Erbil and terrorist in Idlib.
nomadski- Posts : 3086
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https://en.mehrnews.com/news/211060/Another-IRGC-advisor-martyred-due-to-Israeli-strike
It is easy ! Follow any plane from Iran that lands in Syria on Radar . Follow the vehicle that carries the advisors from Airport to a building . Coordinates given to a plane . If they are doing it this way , then no point sending advisors there . Operatives on the ground not carrying out the assassination , only providing information . This means that the operatives are themselves under supervision . They are in public view .
As long as these are the procedures , then there is no defence against this type of attack . Unimportant how the advisors arrive , by land or Sea or plane . Their location given away by people around them to the Israelis . Or if they use mobile phones , their position triangulated and found . They can not trust anyone . They are not protected or avenged by Iran or Syria or Russia .
The procedures must change . Safe operating procedures found . One way is to bring Syrian personnel to Iran instead , where AD is provided . Training and funds provided in Iran , instead of hardware transported or personnel flown by plane . The Syrians carry out all operations , and manufacture locally by buying raw materials and purchasing machines on the market . The same procedures for Iranian allies in Lebanon or Yemen . Tanks can not cross international borders , but submarines can travel across the Sea and fighter planes can fly over international airspace . Iranians can fly them or Yemenis can sail them .
nomadski- Posts : 3086
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The Iranians displayed a photo of terrorists killed in border clashes near Pakistan / Afghanistan border , together with weapons . This tactic of interception of armed terrorists at the border is far more cautious and effective measure , compared to missile strikes . The Pakistanis claimed women and children killed in Iran missile strikes recently . Iran claimed training camps were targets . Both can not be true .
The attack in Erbil , by missiles , showed large secondary explosions . Either fuel or Ammo , more likely Ammo . Therefore whatever this target was , it was more importantly an Arms depot . Here little risk of backlash and provides good hunting ground for Zionist or Kurdish militants , crossing borders into Iran .
Iran can not launch attacks against Israel from Syria . And as I said before , Iran's national and geopolitical interests are just as easily served by withdrawing personnel from Syria . Instead hosting Syrians in Iran , for training etc . Syrians less likely to target each other , because they know each other's address .
Direct retaliation against Israel by Iran from Iran territory , still not immediately needed and too provocative . Targets of interest exist on the high Seas , in a low key manner , offering no existential threat to Israeli public , necessitating a direct war , and Americans being drawn in , on their side .
GarryB- Posts : 40662
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The Pakistanis claimed women and children killed in Iran missile strikes recently . Iran claimed training camps were targets . Both can not be true .
Not strictly true. Terrorists have families and often bases and camps are hidden by putting them in the middle of an urban area.
We have seen video of Grad rocket vehicles launch rockets and then drive down the street and into a shopping mall to hide and reload, presumably with reload missiles and support and maintenance crews inside the mall... then we see the mall destroyed with a huge fireball of secondary explosions from all the rocket ammo stored inside, but the western news only shows the mall being hit and suggesting it was a typical mall with innocent civilians inside that were killed.
Enemy attacks on your country are just new opportunities to show your allies and countries that have not decided yet that you are the victims and they are the bad guys and of course you will try to do so on every occasion and at every opportunity.
Of course when the enemy release the full footage and show you are liars then over time the rest of the world stops believing anything you say so essentially it backfires and just makes you look untrustworthy.
Of course part of the problem is taht when something happens all the media and those following the conflict want to know immediately what happened and sometimes even those that launched the attack don't know whether it worked fully or not, or if they got early warning of an Heat flash in a refinery on western satellite images and quickly made up a story it was them attacking when it was actually an accident or some such thing.
When things happen the media love getting "experts" to speculate but generally they have no idea either and it is just educated guesses which often turn out to be wrong.... especially the western media who pick experts based on their views rather than how often they are right.
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nomadski- Posts : 3086
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@ Garry B
The tactic of fighting next to or within civilian areas is very common . Whether without much choice , as in Gaza , or deliberately like ISIS / Orcs . I have said before that if for example , one has to shoot through an Orc standing behind or in front of a civilian , then this is justified . But here I said it is not , why ? It all depends on the situation at hand , the existing potential for : ( 1 ) The level of threat by an enemy . ( 2 ) The level of attrition by troops . ( 3 ) The possibility of carrying out ground / special operations . ( 4 ) Civilian losses .
Take the Orcs , the threat to Russia is high , if they could move freely , then Russian cities would be attacked , many killed . The cost in losses by troops , in a ground advance or paratroopers , would be high . Even if such operation is possible , then the cost / benefit analysis favours a missile strike , given civilian losses .
Take the Baloch terrorists , the threat to Iran is low , they only have small arms and IED , terror attacks cause relatively small casualties . Ground operations are possible to stop relatively small number crossing border , troop losses are low . Missile strike not possible , because of damaging relations , causing war , highest casualties .
Take Hamas fighters , the threat to Israel is moderate , they have small arms and short range Rockets . Actual or potential losses to Israel are of moderate level . Ground operations to stop attacks , with little troop losses exist . Missile strikes result in massive civilian casualties , even if possible .
The Iranians claimed a military camp was attacked or barracks . And that these fighters were on the move towards Iran borders . If true then highly unlikely women and children involved . The attack by Pakistan , was obviously not against a military camp or barracks ( news report on TV ) , there was no obvious sign of ammo or weapons on the site . Here less doubt women and children killed .
The response to a threat , depends not only on actual attacks , but on potential attacks and losses . If China attacked Israel , with only a few killed , still Israel might respond with nuke strike ! If Iran attacked Israel , with only a few killed , still Israel might respond with massive air strikes . If Jordan attacked Israel , with only few killed , still Israel might respond with Artillery across border . Etc .
The tactic of fighting next to or within civilian areas is very common . Whether without much choice , as in Gaza , or deliberately like ISIS / Orcs . I have said before that if for example , one has to shoot through an Orc standing behind or in front of a civilian , then this is justified . But here I said it is not , why ? It all depends on the situation at hand , the existing potential for : ( 1 ) The level of threat by an enemy . ( 2 ) The level of attrition by troops . ( 3 ) The possibility of carrying out ground / special operations . ( 4 ) Civilian losses .
Take the Orcs , the threat to Russia is high , if they could move freely , then Russian cities would be attacked , many killed . The cost in losses by troops , in a ground advance or paratroopers , would be high . Even if such operation is possible , then the cost / benefit analysis favours a missile strike , given civilian losses .
Take the Baloch terrorists , the threat to Iran is low , they only have small arms and IED , terror attacks cause relatively small casualties . Ground operations are possible to stop relatively small number crossing border , troop losses are low . Missile strike not possible , because of damaging relations , causing war , highest casualties .
Take Hamas fighters , the threat to Israel is moderate , they have small arms and short range Rockets . Actual or potential losses to Israel are of moderate level . Ground operations to stop attacks , with little troop losses exist . Missile strikes result in massive civilian casualties , even if possible .
The Iranians claimed a military camp was attacked or barracks . And that these fighters were on the move towards Iran borders . If true then highly unlikely women and children involved . The attack by Pakistan , was obviously not against a military camp or barracks ( news report on TV ) , there was no obvious sign of ammo or weapons on the site . Here less doubt women and children killed .
The response to a threat , depends not only on actual attacks , but on potential attacks and losses . If China attacked Israel , with only a few killed , still Israel might respond with nuke strike ! If Iran attacked Israel , with only a few killed , still Israel might respond with massive air strikes . If Jordan attacked Israel , with only few killed , still Israel might respond with Artillery across border . Etc .
GarryB- Posts : 40662
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- Post n°735
Pakistan launches retaliatory airstrikes in Iran after an earlier attack by Tehran, killing 9 people
GarryB Thu Jan 25, 2024 4:25 am
With Pakistan and Iran, I suspect both sides are aware of organisations within their own borders that they don't like but must accept... in the case of Pakistan their might be pro Israeli anti Iranian groups they don't particularly like but would get into trouble if they did anything about them... so for instance groups in Pakistan annoying Iran and groups in Iran interfering in Pakistan... there doesn't have to be an actual agreement between the two countries... just create the opportunity to save face so Iran attacks targets in Pakistan... but the targets they hit in Pakistan mean nothing to Pakistan but are a problem for Iran. Pakistan can't let that just lie so they have to respond so they respond against a group in Iran that bothers them but means nothing to the Iranian government. Both hit their enemies without upsetting their neighbours and eliminate local problems that could get worse and start a real conflict.
They might not have agreed to anything but both seem OK with the results.
Obviously if either attack was clumsy and killed lots of innocent bystanders there would be problems... like US drone strikes on targets in Pakistan for instance...
They might not have agreed to anything but both seem OK with the results.
Obviously if either attack was clumsy and killed lots of innocent bystanders there would be problems... like US drone strikes on targets in Pakistan for instance...
nomadski- Posts : 3086
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https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/01/iran-elections-low-turnout-and-boycott-expected.html
It is clear that even with the unreliable figures provided by pro-state sources , that voter turnout overall is low to very low . So low that it removes legitimacy from the state and government apparatus . If these elections were a referendum on the Islamic Republic , then the Islamic Republic has little to no legitimacy . Referendum that govern the framework of other laws need higher majorities to be valid . Laws that govern the lives of fewer people , such as local laws need smaller majorities .
There is now no legitimacy to any parliament or state apparatus or laws passed . The Iranian people are not obliged to follow the dictatorship of the minority . The minority appointed to power by state apparatus . People should particularly reject any law they find as discriminatory , exploitative , or restrictive of their freedoms . People should form freely their own political parties and own political programmes and change the constitution into a democratic Republic .
".......Country analysts expect a nationwide turnout of between 30% and 50%, while state polling center ISPA estimated the turnout in Tehran at just 23.5% and 38.5% nationally. The figures would represent a continuation of recent years; the year 2020 saw the lowest-ever official turnout rate for a parliamentary election in Iran, at just over 40%, and 2021 featured its lowest-ever presidential election turnout."
As low as 27% overall and only 12% in Tehran ? Is the collapse of the Islamic Republic !
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/01/iran-election-extended-by-two-hours-with-turnout-at-just-27
It is clear that even with the unreliable figures provided by pro-state sources , that voter turnout overall is low to very low . So low that it removes legitimacy from the state and government apparatus . If these elections were a referendum on the Islamic Republic , then the Islamic Republic has little to no legitimacy . Referendum that govern the framework of other laws need higher majorities to be valid . Laws that govern the lives of fewer people , such as local laws need smaller majorities .
There is now no legitimacy to any parliament or state apparatus or laws passed . The Iranian people are not obliged to follow the dictatorship of the minority . The minority appointed to power by state apparatus . People should particularly reject any law they find as discriminatory , exploitative , or restrictive of their freedoms . People should form freely their own political parties and own political programmes and change the constitution into a democratic Republic .
".......Country analysts expect a nationwide turnout of between 30% and 50%, while state polling center ISPA estimated the turnout in Tehran at just 23.5% and 38.5% nationally. The figures would represent a continuation of recent years; the year 2020 saw the lowest-ever official turnout rate for a parliamentary election in Iran, at just over 40%, and 2021 featured its lowest-ever presidential election turnout."
As low as 27% overall and only 12% in Tehran ? Is the collapse of the Islamic Republic !
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/01/iran-election-extended-by-two-hours-with-turnout-at-just-27
Eugenio Argentina
Eugenio Argentina- Posts : 4987
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Iran
The terrorists had carried out this operation in small groups of several people and were equipped with explosive belts.
The operation to clear terrorists from different areas of Chabahar and Rask continued until noon today. In Chabahar, a three-person team of terrorists tried to enter the coastal police base, and all three of them were killed, and the operation in this area ended this morning.
The terrorists also failed to attack the IRGC HQs and some terrorists fled to nearby houses and took some civilians hostage. This made the cleaning operation difficult and the cleaning operation lasted for hours. The operation to save the lives of these hostages continued with full caution until noon today and finally ended with the killing of all the terrorists.
Images: A number of Jaish al-Adl terrorists who were killed by the military and security forces
Link: https://english.iswnews.com/34357/terrorist-attack-in-southeast-iran-amid-tensions-with-israel-18-terrorists-killed-video/
The terrorists had carried out this operation in small groups of several people and were equipped with explosive belts.The operation to clear terrorists from different areas of Chabahar and Rask continued until noon today. In Chabahar, a three-person team of terrorists tried to enter the coastal police base, and all three of them were killed, and the operation in this area ended this morning. The terrorists also failed to attack the IRGC HQs and some terrorists fled to nearby houses and took some civilians hostage. This made the cleaning operation difficult and the cleaning operation lasted for hours. The operation to save the lives of these hostages continued with full caution until noon today and finally ended with the killing of all the terrorists.Images: A number of Jaish al-Adl terrorists who were killed by the military and security forces Link: https://english.iswnews.com/34357/terrorist-attack-in-southeast-iran-amid-tensions-with-israel-18-terrorists-killed-video/starman and nomadski like this post
nomadski- Posts : 3086
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During the Mahsa Amini protests , the Balouch also came demonstrating . Compelled by economic hardship , yet wrongly blaming Shia discrimination and chanting confused and meaningless slogans . Many were shot and killed . Twice the number per population than most other counties . This giving rise to hatred and more calls for armed uprising and separatism , probably fuelled further by outsiders . The struggle in Iran is a class and national struggle . Not a religious or ethnic struggle . The state in some places handled the chaos well . Imprisonment followed by release , without criminal records . Use of paint ball guns instead of real bullets . But in places , some , wearing other's uniform , or out of uniform , opened fire and killed and blinded . And some , known to security forces , distributed poison gas in girl schools . State terrorism , versus sectarian terrorism ! If Iranian people will not organise themselves , then the enemy will organise them ( against each other ) !
Eugenio Argentina- Posts : 4987
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Military parades were held throughout Iran to commemorate Army Dayhttps://t.me/geopolitics_live/21646
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Eugenio Argentina- Posts : 4987
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Iran celebrates Army Day with massive military paradesThe Islamic Republic of #Iran celebrates National Army Day this Wednesday with a wide array of military parades throughout the country.
Details here: https://tinyurl.com/2x78byshhttps://twitter.com/Nexo_Latino/status/1780527935364988955
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Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E- Posts : 737
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Why is Ahmadinejād no longer allowed to vote in the elections?
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nomadski- Posts : 3086
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The " Islamic Republic , " is a limited form of democracy . It is essentially a right wing religious apparatus . Left wing politics are not allowed . Still there are no meaningful national political parties . Any politician with a hint of leftist politics is eliminated . So the race is between the nationalists and liberals . This one seems to belong to the pro-West liberal camp . The defeated candidate was popular in the Bazaar . Power is concentrated in the hands of the few or individuals . Plans are highly personal and likely to change . Democracy is not coming to Iran , anytime soon . Although people go through the motions , down to the televised debate ! They have seen it done in the West !!
Eugenio Argentina- Posts : 4987
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— NEW: After election day, President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian held a private meeting with the Supreme Leader, Imam Khamenei, for over 5 hours
After the meeting, within the last 48 hours, several important things have happened:
–
Pezeshkian held a phone conversation with President Putin, affirming that Iran-Russia relations are a definite priority, and that they will only grow stronger.
–
Pezeshkian sent a personal letter to the Secretary General of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, affirming full support for the Resistance Axis, in specific Hezbollah, and the matter of Palestinian liberation.
– Ex-Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif, who is widely held responsible for the failed nuclear deal and weak foreign policy under Rouhani, announced he will NOT become Iran's new Foreign Minister, despite playing a major part in Pezeshkian's campaign.
Thank God, with the vision of the Supreme Leader, and within the boundaries of this vision, the President will act accordingly.
@Middle_East_Spectator
NEW: After election day, President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian held a private meeting with the Supreme Leader, Imam Khamenei, for over 5 hoursAfter the meeting, within the last 48 hours, several important things have happened:
–
Pezeshkian held a phone conversation with President Putin, affirming that Iran-Russia relations are a definite priority, and that they will only grow stronger.–
Pezeshkian sent a personal letter to the Secretary General of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, affirming full support for the Resistance Axis, in specific Hezbollah, and the matter of Palestinian liberation.–
Ex-Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif, who is widely held responsible for the failed nuclear deal and weak foreign policy under Rouhani, announced he will NOT become Iran's new Foreign Minister, despite playing a major part in Pezeshkian's campaign.Thank God, with the vision of the Supreme Leader, and within the boundaries of this vision, the President will act accordingly.
@Middle_East_Spectator
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nomadski- Posts : 3086
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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/8/gaza-toll-could-exceed-186000-lancet-study-says
Any realistic aim by the world against the war in Gaza , can be at best to stop the Genocide . Beyond that ............accepting Palestinians as war refugees .
nomadski- Posts : 3086
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https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ghEIj7jS6qI&pp=ygUMVHJ1bXAgcmFsbHkg
Trumpet cries out " God , Iran , nukes , sanctions ! " But the world is different now ! Russian economy no longer tied to the West ! But to the East ! Likely to remain so for another thirty years ! Iranian economy now part of SCO and Brics . China will not abandon Iran , since Russia will not abandon Iran ! The unipolar moment has passed ! Chinese and Russian bombers jointly patrol Alaska . So cry out Trumpet , nobody will listen .
And the Iranian carpet sellers in the Bazaar , selling hand made carpets , fashioned after European gentry , to European / American tourists , for a fistful of Dollars , wasting the lives of the young in a wasteful economy . They better invest in industry , and sell to Iranians , the things they need . And give the young workers a good future !
Trump the quasi- nationalist , by rejecting the liberal path , kills the liberal children worldwide ! In their place nationalist children be born ! No heart - surgeon wanting to sell carpets to western tourists , is going to succeed ! Iranians will turn to making other stuff ! And turn away from the West ! Stillborn will the Iranian liberal children be !
Trumpet cries out " God , Iran , nukes , sanctions ! " But the world is different now ! Russian economy no longer tied to the West ! But to the East ! Likely to remain so for another thirty years ! Iranian economy now part of SCO and Brics . China will not abandon Iran , since Russia will not abandon Iran ! The unipolar moment has passed ! Chinese and Russian bombers jointly patrol Alaska . So cry out Trumpet , nobody will listen .
And the Iranian carpet sellers in the Bazaar , selling hand made carpets , fashioned after European gentry , to European / American tourists , for a fistful of Dollars , wasting the lives of the young in a wasteful economy . They better invest in industry , and sell to Iranians , the things they need . And give the young workers a good future !
Trump the quasi- nationalist , by rejecting the liberal path , kills the liberal children worldwide ! In their place nationalist children be born ! No heart - surgeon wanting to sell carpets to western tourists , is going to succeed ! Iranians will turn to making other stuff ! And turn away from the West ! Stillborn will the Iranian liberal children be !
Eugenio Argentina- Posts : 4987
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Fotros Resistance (AryJeay), [24/10/2024 09:50]
| BREAKING: Iran to unveil initial trial of its fully domestically developed AI-platform within the next 6 months — Iran’s VP for Technology & science
This will be a big game changer in the area of AI, with Iran joining the competition, in a positive step for the Resistance Nexus.
@FotrosResistance
Fotros Resistance (AryJeay), [24/10/2024 09:56]
—
This is very important.
The world is swiftly transitioning into more AI-driven tools and capabilities. If Iran wants to maintain its power & say, it has to branch out into AI and be amongst the ones having a say in this topic.
Iran scores, the entire Resistance Nexus scores.
@FotrosResistance
| BREAKING: Iran to unveil initial trial of its fully domestically developed AI-platform within the next 6 months — Iran’s VP for Technology & scienceThis will be a big game changer in the area of AI, with Iran joining the competition, in a positive step for the Resistance Nexus.
@FotrosResistance
Fotros Resistance (AryJeay), [24/10/2024 09:56]
—
This is very important.The world is swiftly transitioning into more AI-driven tools and capabilities. If Iran wants to maintain its power & say, it has to branch out into AI and be amongst the ones having a say in this topic.
Iran scores, the entire Resistance Nexus scores.
@FotrosResistance
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F35 ?
Eugenio Argentina- Posts : 4987
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:
Iran’s Nuclear Gambit: Spinning Centrifuges, Shattering Western IllusionsIran’s announcement of deploying advanced centrifuges in response to the IAEA resolution is not merely a technical escalation, it’s a geopolitical masterstroke in a high-stakes chess game where the West continues playing checkers. Tehran’s move signals that it will no longer tolerate the charade of “nuclear diplomacy” orchestrated by Washington and its European vassals, who cloak their hegemonic agenda under the guise of “international security" aka security on Israel's terms.
The IAEA resolution, with its 19 votes in favor and 12 absentions, is less a reflection of the global community’s concern and more a showcase of Western arm-twisting in international institutions. That China, Russia, and even Burkina Faso stood against it highlights a deepening fracture between the West and the Global Majority. Tehran, fully aware of this shifting power dynamic, is leveraging its nuclear program as both a deterrent and a bargaining chip to force the West to negotiate on terms that reflect Iran’s strengthened geopolitical position.
What’s critical to note is that the West’s narrative of Iran pursuing atomic weapons is threadbare. For decades, the specter of an Iranian bomb has been the pretext for sanctions, sabotage, and assassinations. Yet, Israel, the region’s only nuclear-armed state, remains unchallenged, its arsenal ignored by the same “concerned” powers. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's offer to renegotiate the 2015 nuclear deal underscores Tehran’s strategic patience; it is open to diplomacy, but only under mutually respectful terms. However, the deployment of these advanced centrifuges signals a clear warning: Iran will not bow to Western ultimatums.
The collapse of the 2015 deal after Trump’s withdrawal in 2018 marked a turning point. Iran has since recalibrated its strategy, accelerating enrichment and embedding itself deeper into the multipolar order led by China and Russia. This latest move is as much a message to the West as it is a declaration to its allies: Iran is not a passive player, it’s a cornerstone of the emerging world order. Rafael Grossi’s warning that Iran is “close to the threshold” for weaponization may sound ominous in Western capitals, but to Tehran, it’s leverage, leverage it will use to redefine the rules of engagement in a world no longer dominated by the West.
This is more than just nuclear brinkmanship, it’s the defiance of an ancient civilization refusing to kneel before an eroding empire. Iran’s centrifuges aren’t just spinning uranium; they’re spinning the narrative of a post-unipolar world, where sovereignty trumps sanctions and multipolarity renders Western coercion obsolete.
- Gerry Nolan
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