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    Libyan Crisis

    ultimatewarrior
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    Post  ultimatewarrior on Sat Jun 20, 2020 11:26 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    ultimatewarrior wrote:
    Egypt probably buy Iskander and use that to shell Turkish AD.


    If US sanctions Egypt in support of Turkey then fine. Egypt will buy J-20, J-10C from China, Su-35, Su-57 from Russia, Rafale from France, Typhoon from Britain and Germany and Italy and Spain. Let's see how US feels about losing the last bit of influence over the world's oldest civilization only for the stupid Asian nomads called the Turks who have absolutely no culture whatsoever. Ha!  

    Why not put your brain in gear before you type? How long do you think it would take to cut a deal, get delivery, train crews? Are you in the real world? It seems not with some of the fantasy crap you spout sometimes.

    Just taking your first suggestion, a simple Google search would have spotted that, as a minimum, Egypt possesses SCALP/Storm Shadow ALCM with a similar range and function to the Iskander.

    Egypt already has MiG-29M/M2 from Russia, Rafale from France. Egypt's F-16 are basically worthless anyway since they don't have AIM-120. Egypt replace F-16 with J-10C which looks far better and has far better capability. US ain't the king of the world anymore. There are so many alternatives to US which has an idiot as president.

    If US sanctions the world's oldest civilization Egypt for the stupid Asian nomad Turkey then so be it. Egypt will buy from France, Germany, Italy, Spain, China, Russia. US products suck anyway.
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    Post  ultimatewarrior on Sat Jun 20, 2020 11:31 pm

    Sisi announces red line. Sirte and Jufra. This includes most of Libya's oil reserve and infrastructure called oil crescent.

    https://twitter.com/skynewsarabia_b/status/1274343085976190977?s=21
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    Post  medo on Sun Jun 21, 2020 12:09 am

    China is at a brink of a war with India and US, so they will need J-10 for themselves. What ever Egypt will buy, they will have to wait for years to get it. Turkey produce their own weapons, Egypt have to import them. You must not forget, that war between Turkey and Egypt is a music for ears of Israel, which want to see them both destroyed in war between them. Israel will do anything possible, to spread this war between Greece and Turkey as well, which will spreed wider war in Balkans and further in Europe through millions of immigrants. Turkish Navy is also more powerful than that of Egypt, so I don't think Egypt could block Turkish logistics for troops in Libya.
    ultimatewarrior
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    Post  ultimatewarrior on Sun Jun 21, 2020 12:43 am

    medo wrote:China is at a brink of a war with India and US, so they will need J-10 for themselves. What ever Egypt will buy, they will have to wait for years to get it. Turkey produce their own weapons, Egypt have to import them. You must not forget, that war between Turkey and Egypt is a music for ears of Israel, which want to see them both destroyed in war between them. Israel will do anything possible, to spread this war between Greece and Turkey as well, which will spreed wider war in Balkans and further in Europe through millions of immigrants. Turkish Navy is also more powerful than that of Egypt, so I don't think Egypt could block Turkish logistics for troops in Libya.

    China would love to export J-10C to Egypt. Egypt's F-16 have outdated mechanical radar. J-10C has DSI which looks way better and has AESA. There is a high chance US will attack China and trigger a war so Trump can declare martial law and cancel this year's election considering even Fox News has him down by 12 points against Biden. Even so, China has huge aero industry capacity to supply 100 J-10C to Egypt. China would love to have influence over the world's oldest civilization.

    The only thing Turkey makes is TB2 and even that Turkey has to import the EO from Canada. Turkey has no technology.

    https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/canada-turkey-drone-optics-sale-arms-embargo

    Turkey navy sucks. They only have outdated Oliver Perry class frigates. Egypt has way more advanced FREMM frigates.


    Last edited by ultimatewarrior on Sun Jun 21, 2020 12:52 am; edited 1 time in total
    George1
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    Post  George1 on Sun Jun 21, 2020 12:46 am

    Haftar is ineffective. Russia should put their man instead of him
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    Post  ultimatewarrior on Sun Jun 21, 2020 12:51 am

    George1 wrote:Haftar is ineffective. Russia should put their man instead of him

    Haftar is a morale booster. He is a big man. Has charm. Sort of like Suheil. Sarraj would give an arm to have a man like him.
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov on Sun Jun 21, 2020 1:51 am

    George1 wrote:Haftar is ineffective. Russia should put their man instead of him

    In all fairness to Haftar, the problem is the LNA can defeat the GNA in an open battle, same for the GNA basically they can't really defeat each other.

    Haftar would need major support, talking massive amounts of army units from supporting nations to win something and that isn't happening.

    Libya is just going to be partitioned at this stage


    Last edited by SeigSoloyvov on Sun Jun 21, 2020 2:08 am; edited 1 time in total
    ultimatewarrior
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    Post  ultimatewarrior on Sun Jun 21, 2020 1:54 am

    Sisi knows very well Erdogan will go after Libya's oil crescent to steal Libya's oil for Turkey. When that happens, bam, Egypt militarily intervene. Erdogan is a dumb fuck that's why he's a fish going straight to the bait.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Jun 21, 2020 2:46 am

    3 million Syrian terrorists in Turkey. Erdogan was supposed to use them to take over the world.
    He can't take over N. Syria & Kurdish Iraq, not to mention Cyprus- even at its height, the Ottoman Empire couldn't take Vienna & defeat Russia.
    FYI, the Turks r not nomads anymore, just like the Hungarians. Egypt isn't the oldest civilization- Iraq is.
    If US imposes sanctions on Egypt, the Suez Canal will be closed to USN ships & Cairo may start improving relations with Iran; the war in Yemen can go to hell.
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    Post  ultimatewarrior on Sun Jun 21, 2020 3:27 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    3 million Syrian terrorists in Turkey. Erdogan was supposed to use them to take over the world.
    He can't take over N. Syria & Kurdish Iraq, not to mention Cyprus- even at its height, the Ottoman Empire couldn't take Vienna & defeat Russia.
    FYI, the Turks r not nomads anymore, just like the Hungarians. Egypt isn't the oldest civilization- Iraq is.
    If US imposes sanctions on Egypt, the Suez Canal will be closed to USN ships & Cairo may start improving relations with Iran; the war in Yemen can go to hell.

    Erdogan has terrorists farm in northern Syria where he breeds millions of terrorists to take over the world. Erdogan uses slaves to build thousands of TB2 drones to take over the world. Truth is, Turkey don't have have technology to make electro optics. Stupid dumb fucks. Surprised

    https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/canada-turkey-drone-optics-sale-arms-embargo

    Egypt is oldest civilization.

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    Post  AbdulhamidtheSecond on Sun Jun 21, 2020 3:31 am

    Eygpt can not risk a war that may drain many resources, not because Turkey or US, but unending tribal stuff going on in Libya.

    Same goes for Turkey as well. Turkey does support Tripoli government with SPHs, drones, SHORADs, ATGMs, MRAPs etc. etc. but these aint the real thing behind the victory. The reason for Haftar's defeat in front of Tripoli was not just abovementioned Turkish support. Yes it did affect, if it was not present, today Haftar would be Libya's military leader like Egypt. But second major reason was that the tribes that were not happy to be in the same camp with their other rivals in Haftar side left in the first opportunity and created a major security concern for lines behind.

    If Tripoli government relies heavily on these tribes, which they do, like Haftar, then anything could happen. This means country will experience spontaneous turbulences unless a very, very, very powerful third party steps in and eliminate all this mess and impose somebody in charge. I dont think there is any country exist today which risks to get involved something like that.

    So it will go to negotiation table after all. And everything is about energy and resources. But there are too many countries to share with. If it were just two or three, it would be easier. But even non-regional parties like France or Russia have eyes on these so it will be interesting days ahead.

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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Jun 21, 2020 5:27 am

    Mesopotamia with its 2 rivers is the site of the 1st civilization; Egyptian civilization with just the Nile is ~500 years younger. Ziggurats & cuneiform writing appeared before the pyramids & hieroglyphic/hieratic writing.
    To back up their negotiating positions, Egypt & others will use force.
    I expected them to eventually invade E. Libya back in 2011.
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    Post  AbdulhamidtheSecond on Sun Jun 21, 2020 11:33 am

    Egypt's sustainment budget percentage from US military support program was under 30% despite US supervision that below 50% means degradation of the equipment. Later this program has suspended, but I suspect Egypt military prefers to buy new stuff than sustaining already existing equipment, at least until the end of US FMF.

    A great power projection by Egypt will require huge availability, in all naval, aerial and ground fields. If Egypt continued to go with low rate MRO after 2016, the year when the last FMF report indicated the ratio of 30%, then it is impossible to have great availability rates which a great operation dictates for operand to have.

    1 hour of F16 flight requires 30.000 dollars to operate. Many for the fuel, together with the cost projection of parts that need replacement after a certain period of time or flight hour. What costs in an ongoing conflict is to upkeep the equipment and making sure that it will be available when needed.
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    Post  Isos on Sun Jun 21, 2020 12:24 pm

    1 hour of F16 flight requires 30.000 dollars to operate. Many for the fuel, together with the cost projection of parts that need replacement after a certain period of time or flight hour. What costs in an ongoing conflict is to upkeep the equipment and making sure that it will be available when needed.

    They are in better situation than Turkey. Fuel is not the arab states, Egypt produces enough for itself.

    US will keep selling them weapons because they operate 220 f-16 which is a big number and provide lot of cash to them. If they stop, Egypt will just buy another batch of mig29/35 and sell back the f-16. They already have around 100 mig-29/rafale/su-35.

    But there is no way US stop their relations with Egypt for the libyan GNA or Libya itself. No matter if egypt invade them.
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    Post  AbdulhamidtheSecond on Sun Jun 21, 2020 12:32 pm

    You didnt read what I wrote above. Even in times when US supports Egypt militarily the MRO rate reported below 30% by Americans in Egyptian military. It has nothing to do with buying stuff.

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    Post  Isos on Sun Jun 21, 2020 12:58 pm

    AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:You didnt read what I wrote above. Even in times when US supports Egypt militarily the MRO rate reported below 30% by Americans in Egyptian military. It has nothing to do with buying stuff.


    First that's american sources. Egyptian are well known to lie a lot to their weapon suppliers about the real capabilities of their stuff. They know the data will be send to Israel. They did that with the soviets and lied about their air force capacity before one of the war with Israel. I think it was theey pretended to not know how to use their jets but they were more than ready.

    Second, you take numbers during peace time which have nothing to do with war time. They are already sending lot of hardware in the west and preparing them to be ready.

    Finally, they don't need 100% of their forces to destroy GNA or Turkish forces in Libya. Even 20% is enough. Their Rafales and Mig-29M are brand new and 100% ready to fight. That's enough even if all the f16 can't fly.
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    Post  AbdulhamidtheSecond on Sun Jun 21, 2020 1:25 pm

    Egyptian F16s are already worthless since they have outdated radar and AIM7/AIM9Ps. Neither can stand against AIM120C7 and AIM9X.

    What Egypt has its hopes on are Rafales and Mig29Ms which cannot talk to each other.

    Rafale can talk to Rafale, Mig29M can talk to Mig29M. Neither can talk with E2s.

    Only recently they bought some IFF systems upon request of UAE and KSA during Yemeni campaign since they couldnt cooperate over operations.
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    Post  d_taddei2 on Sun Jun 21, 2020 2:20 pm

    Turkey can't win in Libya.
    For one it's a logistical nightmare,
    Corona virus has effected the economy,
    it's relations with Greece aren't going as to put it kindly,
    it's fighting a war with the Kurds at home and in other countries
    Fighting a war in Iraq
    Fighting a war in Syria
    USA/UK/EU relations aren't good
    NATO relations aren't good
    Lost numerous drones in Libya.
    It's so called reinforcements poured into Libya hasn't went well.
    And LNA has backing from Russia, France, UAE, and Egypt the latter shares a border with Libya so logistics isn't such an issue.
    Whatever turkey does in Libya it costs them double as to what it costs Egypt, and UAE being oil rich and cash to play with doesn't help.
    Majority of the country taken by LNA.

    It begs to wonder why turkey things it can win.

    LNA lack manpower. What they need to do is make peace with the various tribal factions in the south of the country, this in turn could provide additional manpower from tribal areas. Add this to Intel, weapons from backers, and possible fighters from UAE, and Egypt and they can win. And to be honest this isn't out with a likely or reasonable action. Egypt wouldn't be directly involved with its armed forces.

    Egypt has ‘international legitimacy’ to militarily intervene in Libya: Sisi

    https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/egypt-has-international-legitimacy-to-militarily-intervene-in-libya-sisi/
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    Post  Isos on Sun Jun 21, 2020 2:46 pm

    AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:Egyptian F16s are already worthless since they have outdated radar and AIM7/AIM9Ps. Neither can stand against AIM120C7 and AIM9X.

    What Egypt has its hopes on are Rafales and Mig29Ms which cannot talk to each other.

    Rafale can talk to Rafale, Mig29M can talk to Mig29M. Neither can talk with E2s.

    Only recently they bought some IFF systems upon request of UAE and KSA during Yemeni campaign since they couldnt cooperate over operations.

    Their f-16 are not worthless. With GCI or AWACS control they can be guided towards enemy with radar turned off for an intercept.

    Also 200 f16 armed with bombs can destroy turks in Libya with Turkey not being able to do anything.

    Mig-29 and Rafale have radio which can be used to talk with E2. They don't even need secure line as the turks don't speak the same language...
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    Post  AbdulhamidtheSecond on Sun Jun 21, 2020 2:48 pm

    Turkey does handle multi theatral operations. Currently Turkey is military active in 7 different campaigns and all are on time and schedule. If there is one thing Turkey never gives up then it is operational worthiness.

    Simultaneously, at the moment, by the time we talk here,

    -Operation Claw/Tiger by Land Forces
    -Operation Claw/Eagle by Air Forces

    Ongoing in N.Iraq, PKK terrorists cant do any big attacks they used to do back in 90s. Thanks to these operations.

    -Upkeep operations in Syria continue. 2nd Army is combat active there in ultimately dangerous areas with militias exist from different factions including UAE-directed HTS and PKK. And Assad Russia Iran as well.

    -Turkish drones are continuously watching over Aegean frontier and protects immigrants from Greek aggression. After all, Turkey is a land route for migrants not just from Syria but from Afghanistan/Pakistan/Iran/Iraq etc. and Turkey does not keep them here forcefully.

    -In Cyprus, Turkish Cyprus Forces are always combat ready. Watch this:

    https://youtu.be/uErvmpvyss4

    -In Libya, we know what happened in Tripoli.

    -In EastMed, Turkish Naval existence at its height, together with submarines which noone knows exact numbers. I dont count ATR72s and CN235s specialized for naval reconaissance.

    Turkey does this progressively since 90s, at increasing rates. It is not today's issue. Turkey is a military country. There are tens of thousands of military veterans in Turkey whom shot&killed terrorists since 90s.

    On the other hand, only Egyptian active front is in Sinai and even though it is open desert where ISR operations are way, way easier than Iraq or Syria, Egyptians can not secure their territory, let alone further away from their borders.

    Despite having more population than Turkey, Egypt has one third of Turkey's GDP. One third of everything, it means. And despite that, Turkish population is not anti-war like Europeans. Only elites whom already dodge the drafts utter those shits. And it is not about Erdogan, it is about Turkish Armed Forces which is now better integrated with the nation especially after 2016 and above politics for everybody in the country.

    If Egypt had to do what Turkey has been doing since 90s, it would already been exploded.
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    Post  ultimatewarrior on Sun Jun 21, 2020 3:33 pm

    Isos wrote:
    1 hour of F16 flight requires 30.000 dollars to operate. Many for the fuel, together with the cost projection of parts that need replacement after a certain period of time or flight hour. What costs in an ongoing conflict is to upkeep the equipment and making sure that it will be available when needed.

    They are in better situation than Turkey. Fuel is not the arab states, Egypt produces enough for itself.

    US will keep selling them weapons because they operate 220 f-16 which is a big number and provide lot of cash to them. If they stop, Egypt will just buy another batch of mig29/35 and sell back the f-16. They already have around 100 mig-29/rafale/su-35.

    But there is no way US stop their relations with Egypt for the libyan GNA or Libya itself. No matter if egypt invade them.

    Egypt's F-16 suck. Lack of AESA and active BVR missiles. J-10C is way better. J-10C is more advanced than any F-16 out there.
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    Post  ultimatewarrior on Sun Jun 21, 2020 3:38 pm

    AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:Egyptian F16s are already worthless since they have outdated radar and AIM7/AIM9Ps. Neither can stand against AIM120C7 and AIM9X.

    What Egypt has its hopes on are Rafales and Mig29Ms which cannot talk to each other.

    Rafale can talk to Rafale, Mig29M can talk to Mig29M. Neither can talk with E2s.

    Only recently they bought some IFF systems upon request of UAE and KSA during Yemeni campaign since they couldnt cooperate over operations.

    All modern fighter jets can talk to each other, regardless where they were made.
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    Post  AbdulhamidtheSecond on Sun Jun 21, 2020 3:46 pm

    I dont mean radio. I mean real time data link.

    Making BRAA calls from UHF channels are not quite good when you need complete picture.
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    Post  ultimatewarrior on Sun Jun 21, 2020 4:04 pm

    AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:I dont mean radio. I mean real time data link.

    Making BRAA calls from UHF channels are not quite good when you need complete picture.

    All the modern fighter jets have data link.
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    Post  ultimatewarrior on Sun Jun 21, 2020 4:33 pm

    Erdogan has no choice to go after Sirte / Jufra. To control Libya's oil you have to take Sirte / Jufra. This will be a major regional war between Arab League (sans Qatar) + Greece + Iran + Israel versus Turkey + Qatar. Erdogan's neo Ottoman ambition has spooked the entire region. Erdogan the new sultan will meet his end in Syria and Libya. Book it.

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