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    Libyan Crisis

    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Sat Jun 20, 2020 11:49 am

    Wonder what the logistics of moving this lot are?

    More than 2,600 Turkish-backed Syrian militants have returned from Libya where they were fighting for the Government of National Accord (GNA), the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported on June 19.

    “The returnees have received all of their financial entitlements after the recent advance by GNA forces in Libya,” the monitoring group’s report reads.

    At least 12,100 Syrian militants are still present in Libya. According to the SOHR, Turkey is now working to deploy even more militants there. More than 1,800 Syrians are currently receiving military training in camps inside Turkey ahead of deployment.

    The SOHR also revealed that 300 Syrian militants fighting in GNA forces are minors, between the ages of 14 and 18. Most of these minors were recruited by the Turkish-backed Sultan Murad Division.

    Despite the relative calm in Libya, the remaining Syrian militants there are still taking part in combat operations. In the last few days, at least 17 were killed. This raised the number of Syrians killed while fighting in Libya to 417.
    The deployment of Syrian militants in Libya boosted the offensive capabilities of GNA forces, enabling them to make gains in northwest Libya.


    https://geopolitics.news/africa/over-2600-turkish-backed-syrian-militants-have-returned-from-libya-report/
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Sat Jun 20, 2020 11:55 am

    Having bases in Libya will help Russia to monitor/control central Med. Sea SLOCs, esp. if/when Serbia is swallowed by NATO.
    Also, RF presence there is needed to protect her interests elsewhere in North & Central Africa.

    It wouldn't be essential and would be quite vulnerable from HATO interference of course... they would need to be very careful about what they based there...

    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Sat Jun 20, 2020 1:39 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    Having bases in Libya will help Russia to monitor/control central Med. Sea SLOCs, esp. if/when Serbia is swallowed by NATO.
    Also, RF presence there is needed to protect her interests elsewhere in North & Central Africa.

    It wouldn't be essential and would be quite vulnerable from HATO interference of course... they would need to be very careful about what they based there...

    I think that the likely end result will be that the country is split into two countries, a bit like Yugoslavia, with some kind of oil revenue sharing agreement.

    The Turks would stay in the Libya West, they need the money and they would be very difficult to get out now they are in. That leaves the two states in military unbalance. The logical reason for any Russian bases in Libya would be to counter the Turks to right that balance and ensure that this shit doesn't break out again. The Libya East Government paying the Russians to be there.

    This would stop the Turk's claim to a band across the Med from Libya to Turkey as that would start in East Libya, many countries happy at that!

    It would be a big strategic win for Russia as Libya then becomes the second country in the ME that they become a defacto peacekeeping force. North Iraq next?

    A bit off the wall, but imagine if the two parties and their allies WL/Turkey and EL/Russia decided that sharing the oil revenue via western banks, given what their countries had done to Libya in the past, was too risky and that they would do it instead on the back of another major oil producer's revenue stream, the Bank of Russia.

    The strategic implications on that are are pretty mind blowing. You can bet your bottom dollar that the strategists in Moscow have gamed that option out. If they think its a goer then that is a very good reason, on its own, for the Russian activities in Libya. Perhaps a reason why the Turks are saying that they and the Russians are thinking the same on Libya.
    ultimatewarrior
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    Post  ultimatewarrior Sat Jun 20, 2020 4:11 pm

    JohninMK wrote:Wonder what the logistics of moving this lot are?

    More than 2,600 Turkish-backed Syrian militants have returned from Libya where they were fighting for the Government of National Accord (GNA), the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported on June 19.

    “The returnees have received all of their financial entitlements after the recent advance by GNA forces in Libya,” the monitoring group’s report reads.

    At least 12,100 Syrian militants are still present in Libya. According to the SOHR, Turkey is now working to deploy even more militants there. More than 1,800 Syrians are currently receiving military training in camps inside Turkey ahead of deployment.

    The SOHR also revealed that 300 Syrian militants fighting in GNA forces are minors, between the ages of 14 and 18. Most of these minors were recruited by the Turkish-backed Sultan Murad Division.

    Despite the relative calm in Libya, the remaining Syrian militants there are still taking part in combat operations. In the last few days, at least 17 were killed. This raised the number of Syrians killed while fighting in Libya to 417.
    The deployment of Syrian militants in Libya boosted the offensive capabilities of GNA forces, enabling them to make gains in northwest Libya.


    https://geopolitics.news/africa/over-2600-turkish-backed-syrian-militants-have-returned-from-libya-report/

    Pretty pathetic from Turkey. I thought they were supposed to ship millions of Syrian terrorists to Libya to take back Egypt for Turkey. Really pathetic.
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Sat Jun 20, 2020 6:05 pm

    ultimatewarrior wrote:
    Pretty pathetic from Turkey. I thought they were supposed to ship millions of Syrian terrorists to Libya to take back Egypt for Turkey. Really pathetic.

    Accurate self analysis, really pathetic thinking that there are millions of terrorists in Syria.
    Isos
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    Post  Isos Sat Jun 20, 2020 6:13 pm

    Hassan Hassan
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    · 1h
    Big development.

    In an escalation, Egyptian president Sisi says Cairo is now prepared to intervene directly in Libya. He says an Egyptian intervention has become legal under international law to protect its borders, secure Libya & protect civilians there
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Sat Jun 20, 2020 6:37 pm

    Once again, Turkey bit more than she can chew. She has no chance against Russia, Egypt, Greece & France ganging up on her in Libya & C/E Med.
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    AbdulhamidtheSecond

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    Post  AbdulhamidtheSecond Sat Jun 20, 2020 6:39 pm

    How can Libyan government pose a threat to "Egyptian borders" when they control Sirte and Jufra?

    These two are hundreds of kilometers away, and borders with Egypt are currently controlled by militia that Egypt likes.

    If it is the case that Sirte and Jufra's fall means direct possibility of Libyan government to drive Haftar militias towards Egyptian border then it pretty much shows how Haftar militias are easily breakable.

    Let's see what Egypt is up to. Turkish AD is being deployed already. And they are not oldie Hawks or Stingers. Actual Hisar missiles with double propellant rocket engines went there.
    Isos
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    Post  Isos Sat Jun 20, 2020 6:56 pm

    If it is the case that Sirte and Jufra's fall means direct possibility of Libyan government to drive Haftar militias towards Egyptian border then it pretty much shows how Haftar militias are easily breakable.

    From what I understood GNA is not better. The militias there work for both side and switch often.

    Let's see what Egypt is up to. Turkish AD is being deployed already. And they are not oldie Hawks or Stingers. Actual Hisar missiles with double propellant rocket engines went there.

    Their AD is very weak. Report of old Hawks send there. Hisar is not in service and the one being almost finished is the short range.

    Egypt with 300 modern jets and AWACS/ELINT has an overwhelming and technological advantage. They even operate the Hawk in their own AD so they know how to destroy it.
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    Post  AbdulhamidtheSecond Sat Jun 20, 2020 7:13 pm

    Hisar-A and Hisar-O has the same root but one is bigger brother of the other. Finishing Hisar-A means almost finishing Hisar-O.

    Double propellant is what rocks. Hisar-O has active propellant as far as 25 kilometers and as high as 15 kilometers. And ability to engage passively with IR means no warning before you get busted.
    ahmedfire
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    Post  ahmedfire Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:02 pm

    "We call on the Libyan parties to respect the current lines and start negotiations," El-Sisi said, adding that "Libya's Sirte and Al-Jufra are considered the

    red line

    for Egyptian national security."

    UPDATED: Sisi says any Egyptian intervention in Libya now has international legitimacy
    ahmedfire
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    Post  ahmedfire Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:07 pm

    AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:Hisar-A and Hisar-O has the same root but one is bigger brother of the other. Finishing Hisar-A means almost finishing Hisar-O.

    Double propellant is what rocks. Hisar-O has active propellant as far as 25 kilometers and as high as 15 kilometers. And ability to engage passively with IR means no warning before you get busted.

    What about sending the below KH-31 anti radiation missiles  out of the range ? make sure to keep your crews away .

    Libyan Crisis - Page 36 Mig-2910
    ahmedfire
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    Post  ahmedfire Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:16 pm



    Today's visit to the western area




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    Isos
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    Post  Isos Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:19 pm

    AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:Hisar-A and Hisar-O has the same root but one is bigger brother of the other. Finishing Hisar-A means almost finishing Hisar-O.

    Double propellant is what rocks. Hisar-O has active propellant as far as 25 kilometers and as high as 15 kilometers. And ability to engage passively with IR means no warning before you get busted.

    They use radar for detection. The long range Hisar will use radar missiles and is already obsolate if the enemy has kh-31 like missiles.

    Modern jets have Missile warning systems that deect the IR signature of the missile trying to kill them. Then if there is a radar signal it's a radar guided missile if there isn't a signal it's an IR missile. Then automatic protectiin will launch either chaffs or flares.

    Anyway they are yet in development so unlikely they will send them in Libya any day soon.
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    Post  ahmedfire Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:30 pm

    Isos wrote:
    AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:Hisar-A and Hisar-O has the same root but one is bigger brother of the other. Finishing Hisar-A means almost finishing Hisar-O.

    Double propellant is what rocks. Hisar-O has active propellant as far as 25 kilometers and as high as 15 kilometers. And ability to engage passively with IR means no warning before you get busted.

    They use radar for detection. The long range Hisar will use radar missiles and is already obsolate if the enemy has kh-31 like missiles.

    Modern jets have Missile warning systems that deect the IR signature of the missile trying to kill them. Then if there is a radar signal it's a radar guided missile if there isn't a signal it's an IR missile. Then automatic protectiin will launch either chaffs or flares.

    Anyway they are yet in development so unlikely they will send them in Libya any day soon.

    Egypt did SEAD for the Israeli Hawk in YK war .

    EAF has many ARM , like French ARMAT 120km & KH-31 110km & HARM 150km .

    It's funny that some AD in Libya could stop the Egyptian army , actually the Egyptian Tanks could go there and say hi to those AD .
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    Post  Isos Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:35 pm

    @Ahmed do you have any news concerning Egyptian Migs and Rafales ? Like results of exercices or some interesting interview with pilots .
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    Post  ahmedfire Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:41 pm

    Isos wrote:@Ahmed do you have any news concerning Egyptian Migs and Rafales ? Like results of exercices or some interesting interview with pilots .

    Actually EAF is not used to give clear reports about the aircrafts but from local sources both aircrafts are doing well and well equipped .
    medo
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    Post  medo Sat Jun 20, 2020 10:32 pm

    Egypt army is big, but… Egypt have mostly US made weapons like F-16, AH-64, M1A1,... which are well degraded comparing to NATO standard weapons which Turkey have. Egypt F-16C/D, which form a backbone are armed with older Sidfewinders and AIM-7 Sparrow AAMs, while TuAF F-16C/D are armed with AIM-120C7 AMRAAMs and AIM-9X Sidewinders. For sure TuAF F-16 have better HARMs and jamming pods than Egypt and other armament as well. There is also question of quality of pilots and crews between Turkey and Egypt. Only hope for Egypt are French Mirage-2000 and Rafale jets and Russian MiG-29M, which they have in smaller number. Other hope are Chinese made UCAVs Wing Loongs I and II and CH-5. Egyptian Ka-52 is comparable with TuAF T-129. I would not give too much hope on Egypt, specially if US decide to support Turkey, and impose embargo on US armament for Egypt. Turkey is the second strongest army in NATO. Only hope for Egypt in this case is a war between Greece and Turkey.
    ultimatewarrior
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    Post  ultimatewarrior Sat Jun 20, 2020 10:57 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    ultimatewarrior wrote:
    Pretty pathetic from Turkey. I thought they were supposed to ship millions of Syrian terrorists to Libya to take back Egypt for Turkey. Really pathetic.

    Accurate self analysis, really pathetic thinking that there are millions of terrorists in Syria.

    3 million Syrian terrorists in Turkey. Erdogan was supposed to use them to take over the world. Pity he's an idiot.
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    Post  ahmedfire Sat Jun 20, 2020 10:59 pm

    medo wrote:Egypt army is big, but… Egypt have mostly US made weapons like F-16, AH-64, M1A1,... which are well degraded comparing to NATO standard weapons which Turkey have. Egypt F-16C/D, which form a backbone are armed with older Sidfewinders and AIM-7 Sparrow AAMs, while TuAF F-16C/D are armed with AIM-120C7 AMRAAMs and AIM-9X Sidewinders. For sure TuAF F-16 have better HARMs and jamming pods than Egypt and other armament as well. There is also question of quality of pilots and crews between Turkey and Egypt. Only hope for Egypt are French Mirage-2000 and Rafale jets and Russian MiG-29M, which they have in smaller number. Other hope are Chinese made UCAVs Wing Loongs I and II and CH-5. Egyptian Ka-52 is comparable with TuAF T-129. I would not give too much hope on Egypt, specially if US decide to support Turkey, and impose embargo on US armament for Egypt. Turkey is the second strongest army in NATO. Only hope for Egypt in this case is a war between Greece and Turkey.

    Egypt has all the necessary hardware including BVR missiles to shot down the Turkish Falcons .

    But forget about this , How could Turkey send 80 F-16 far away over Libya and feed all of them with fuel in front of the EAF ?

    Actually Rafale+MIGs+Mirage are about 90 aircraft , even Turkey can't provide such numbers over Libya . Turkey can't stop the Egyptian ground forces in Libya . It's a game over in favor to Egypt and US will do nothing .
    ultimatewarrior
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    Post  ultimatewarrior Sat Jun 20, 2020 11:01 pm

    AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:How can Libyan government pose a threat to "Egyptian borders" when they control Sirte and Jufra?

    These two are hundreds of kilometers away, and borders with Egypt are currently controlled by militia that Egypt likes.

    If it is the case that Sirte and Jufra's fall means direct possibility of Libyan government to drive Haftar militias towards Egyptian border then it pretty much shows how Haftar militias are easily breakable.

    Let's see what Egypt is up to. Turkish AD is being deployed already. And they are not oldie Hawks or Stingers. Actual Hisar missiles with double propellant rocket engines went there.  

    Egypt probably buy Iskander and use that to shell Turkish AD.
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    Post  ultimatewarrior Sat Jun 20, 2020 11:05 pm

    medo wrote:Egypt army is big, but… Egypt have mostly US made weapons like F-16, AH-64, M1A1,... which are well degraded comparing to NATO standard weapons which Turkey have. Egypt F-16C/D, which form a backbone are armed with older Sidfewinders and AIM-7 Sparrow AAMs, while TuAF F-16C/D are armed with AIM-120C7 AMRAAMs and AIM-9X Sidewinders. For sure TuAF F-16 have better HARMs and jamming pods than Egypt and other armament as well. There is also question of quality of pilots and crews between Turkey and Egypt. Only hope for Egypt are French Mirage-2000 and Rafale jets and Russian MiG-29M, which they have in smaller number. Other hope are Chinese made UCAVs Wing Loongs I and II and CH-5. Egyptian Ka-52 is comparable with TuAF T-129. I would not give too much hope on Egypt, specially if US decide to support Turkey, and impose embargo on US armament for Egypt. Turkey is the second strongest army in NATO. Only hope for Egypt in this case is a war between Greece and Turkey.

    Greek air force has F-16 Block 52+ armed with AIM-120D. If Erdogan goes after Sirte you can bet your house Greece will militarily intervene. Not to mention UAE has F-16 Block 60 which is far more advanced than Turkey's crappy F-16 Block 50.

    Egypt is getting Su-35. So I doubt they care about US sanction one way or another. If US sanctions Egypt then so be it. It'll only lead to Egypt buying more Su-35 and maybe even J-10C from China.


    Last edited by ultimatewarrior on Sat Jun 20, 2020 11:07 pm; edited 1 time in total
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Sat Jun 20, 2020 11:06 pm

    medo wrote:Egypt army is big, but… Egypt have mostly US made weapons like F-16, AH-64, M1A1,... which are well degraded comparing to NATO standard weapons which Turkey have. Egypt F-16C/D, which form a backbone are armed with older Sidfewinders and AIM-7 Sparrow AAMs, while TuAF F-16C/D are armed with AIM-120C7 AMRAAMs and AIM-9X Sidewinders. For sure TuAF F-16 have better HARMs and jamming pods than Egypt and other armament as well. There is also question of quality of pilots and crews between Turkey and Egypt. Only hope for Egypt are French Mirage-2000 and Rafale jets and Russian MiG-29M, which they have in smaller number. Other hope are Chinese made UCAVs Wing Loongs I and II and CH-5. Egyptian Ka-52 is comparable with TuAF T-129. I would not give too much hope on Egypt, specially if US decide to support Turkey, and impose embargo on US armament for Egypt. Turkey is the second strongest army in NATO. Only hope for Egypt in this case is a war between Greece and Turkey.

    With the potential increase in locally based attack aircraft, Libyan runways and support infrastructure, especially GNA's, is about to become the major strategic target to try to reduce or eliminate CAS. Once done its probable that only the airfields in the east of LNA territory would be operating leaving the LNA with control of the air as the TAF aircraft would be at a serious disadvantage operating from mainland Turkey. This is without direct support from Egypt.

    Then, if it came to a proper fight, the main positive for Egypt is that they are only a land border away so reinforcements and resupply can just drive into Libya. Whilst Turkey has a supply line very vulnerable to Egyptian Air Force, Air Defence and Navy. Forget the EAF aircraft, the TUF transport and attack aircraft will have to run the gauntlet of S-300VM (only 5 years old) and they have quite a lot of other stuff like Buk and Tor, all trained to resist the IAF. It is probable, as in Venezuela, that Egyptian SAM systems are being updated as we write as the Russians have some second hand/factory refurbished S-300 to sell and would no doubt like a successful action demo under their belts.

    As they say "Logistics wins wars".
    ultimatewarrior
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    Post  ultimatewarrior Sat Jun 20, 2020 11:12 pm

    If US sanctions Egypt in support of Turkey then fine. Egypt will buy J-10C, J-20 from China, Su-35, Su-57 from Russia, Rafale from France, Typhoon from Britain and Germany and Italy and Spain. Let's see how US feels about losing the last bit of influence over the world's oldest civilization only for the stupid Asian nomads called the Turks who have absolutely no culture whatsoever. Ha! Cool
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    Post  JohninMK Sat Jun 20, 2020 11:23 pm

    ultimatewarrior wrote:
    Egypt probably buy Iskander and use that to shell Turkish AD.


    If US sanctions Egypt in support of Turkey then fine. Egypt will buy J-20, J-10C from China, Su-35, Su-57 from Russia, Rafale from France, Typhoon from Britain and Germany and Italy and Spain. Let's see how US feels about losing the last bit of influence over the world's oldest civilization only for the stupid Asian nomads called the Turks who have absolutely no culture whatsoever. Ha!  

    Why not put your brain in gear before you type? How long do you think it would take to cut a deal, get delivery, train crews? Are you in the real world? It seems not with some of the fantasy crap you spout sometimes.

    Just taking your first suggestion, a simple Google search would have spotted that, as a minimum, Egypt possesses SCALP/Storm Shadow ALCM with a similar range and function to the Iskander.

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