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    Libyan Crisis

    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:48 pm

    ahmedfire wrote:
    Now LNA occupy about 70% of Libyan lands including about half of population and most of the Oil fields which is the most important thing there .

    Fayez al-Sarraj the head of GNA went to Turkey yesterday and Erdogan said Turkish companies will start work there , his only target to steal the oil like what he did with ISIS  ,but sorry oil is not available here . Laughing
    The oil may not be available but what about the money from it now and in the past?

    As I understand it, the GNA as the recognised Government has the oil contracts so access to the revenue from the oil held in the banks of the World, the LNA does not. This money is currently being spent on keeping the GNA in power, like paying for Turkish support.

    This is the reason that the LNA shut down all oil exports through their territory, which is most as you say, other than any they could sell on the black market. No point in allowing revenue to the GNA when most of it goes to fighting you.

    Even if, as you suggest, Haftar starts exporting he is not the legal Government, just like the SDF in Syria, so can't get easy access to the revenue.

    Or am I wrong?
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    Post  ahmedfire Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:59 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    ahmedfire wrote:
    Now LNA occupy about 70% of Libyan lands including about half of population and most of the Oil fields which is the most important thing there .

    Fayez al-Sarraj the head of GNA went to Turkey yesterday and Erdogan said Turkish companies will start work there , his only target to steal the oil like what he did with ISIS  ,but sorry oil is not available here . Laughing
    The oil may not be available but what about the money from it now and in the past?

    As I understand it, the GNA as the recognised Government has the oil contracts so access to the revenue from the oil held in the banks of the World, the LNA does not. This money is currently being spent on keeping the GNA in power, like paying for Turkish support.

    This is the reason that the LNA shut down all oil exports through their territory, which is most as you say, other than any they could sell on the black market. No point in allowing revenue to the GNA when most of it goes to fighting you.

    Even if, as you suggest, Haftar starts exporting he is not the legal Government, just like the SDF in Syria, so can't get easy access to the revenue.

    Or am I wrong?

    GNA is recognised because no one else on the stage not because it's elected from Libyans . The parliment which supports LNA is the only elected thing there , setting up elections on the east and south would give it a legal base to start pumping the oil .Yes the old revenues had gone to GNA but it's going to finish soon specially after Turkish companies being there .

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    Post  JohninMK Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:06 pm

    ahmedfire wrote:[

    GNA is recognised because no one else on the stage not because it's elected from Libyans . The parliment which supports LNA is the only elected thing there , setting up elections on the east and south would give it a legal base to start pumping the oil .Yes the old revenues had gone to GNA but it's going to finish soon specially after Turkish companies being there .

    Sorry but your statement is merely a hope. Since when have elections mattered unless they were needed to matter?

    Nothing will change until the World Community (effectively the US) reverses its long standing decision that in effect who rules Tripoli rules Libya and there is no indication, as far as I can see, that that will happen any time soon. The LNA has the wrong international allies!
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    Post  ahmedfire Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:11 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    ahmedfire wrote:[

    GNA is recognised because no one else on the stage not because it's elected from Libyans . The parliment which supports LNA is the only elected thing there , setting up elections on the east and south would give it a legal base to start pumping the oil .Yes the old revenues had gone to GNA but it's going to finish soon specially after Turkish companies being there .

    Sorry but your statement is merely a hope. Since when have elections mattered unless they were needed to matter?

    Nothing will change until the World Community (effectively the US) reverses its long standing decision that in effect who rules Tripoli rules Libya and there is no indication, as far as I can see, that that will happen any time soon. The LNA has the wrong international allies!

    The US did nothing there and they don't even control any side ,not even the GNA .Most of the EU would support LNA because Turkey is violating the Greece economic water ,France needs Turkey outside Libya by any way .

    Erdogan is going to lose the next elections and Turkish politics will completely change ,it's a game of time .
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    Post  JohninMK Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:30 pm

    ahmedfire wrote:

    The US did nothing there and they don't even control any side ,not even the GNA .Most of the EU would support LNA because Turkey is violating the Greece economic water ,France needs Turkey outside Libya by any way .

    Erdogan is going to lose the next elections and Turkish politics will completely change ,it's a game of time .
    You are correct but wrong Smile

    IMHO the US will not, even though Haftar seems to have been a CIA asset living in the US for 20 years or so, back a 'rebel' leader, albeit a pretty successful one, that is in opposition to a NATO ally and apparently supported by the evil empire, Russia. They don't need to do anything and although, as you say, many EU countries want to back a change to the LNA, they don't count in the great scheme of things as they are US vassal states and the US controls the World's finances through the $ anyway.

    Without Haftar taking Tripoli, he just lost probably his best chance of that, it is only an outside possibility that there will be change this side of Turkish elections, which Erdogan may still win, he has the motivation to do all kind of nasties to do so.
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    Post  ahmedfire Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:35 pm


    It's pretty clear that US is not supporting Haftar , they did nothing for him till now but also not opposing him too much .

    No one cares about a specific area but only about wealth .Without wealth ,Libya is just a desert .

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    Post  flamming_python Fri Jun 05, 2020 2:08 pm

    AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:Those Mi35s, at least 1 of them may end up in Ankara. Possibly like Pantsir.

    And LNA is at pretty much where they were 1 year ago.

    What would Ankara want with a Mi-35?
    They are the export versions of the Mi-24V; an attack helicopter from the late 70s

    You're thinking of the Mi-35M. For sure none are ending up in Ankara.

    Russia is completely silent about this. As I theorize, it simply gave up Libya to Turkey in return for Syria. NATO was also sounding the alarm about Russia building an airbase in Libya and started flying strategic bombers in the Black Sea and Baltic over the past week.
    Libya is not really worth it for Russia; Syria is what it really needs.

    Libya is really up to Egypt, Greece, France, etc... all these countries that expressed outrage over Turkish intervention. No reason for Russia to fight their war for them.
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    Post  Isos Fri Jun 05, 2020 2:24 pm

    Russia is completely silent about this. As I theorize, it simply gave up Libya to Turkey in return for Syria. NATO was also sounding the alarm about Russia building an airbase in Libya and started flying strategic bombers in the Black Sea and Baltic over the past week.
    Libya is not really worth it for Russia; Syria is what it really needs.

    Libya is really up to Egypt, Greece, France, etc... all these countries that expressed outrage over Turkish intervention. No reason for Russia to fight their war for them.

    They have no interest in Haftar. They just provide what UAE and Egypt pay for (mercenaries, pantsirs and jets). If Russia really wanted to get involved in that war they would send 3 or 4 su34 in Egypt and bomb the shit out of GNA and that would be quicker than in Syria.

    Some people in Moscow just became very rich with all the equipment they sold there. And if you don't understand the rule of the weapon seller it's simple : the longer the war last the more they sell. Right now all the weapons used there are mostly russians (they even sold mig-29 and su24 to a guerilla...). That's their only interest. Libya's fate is non of their concern but European's and arab's

    Haftar supports are Europeans and Arabs. They are the one that will lose big if GNA takes the country. Erdogan can open a new entry door for migrants into EU when he wants and Arab will have Erdogan's terrorists at their border (spexially Egypt where the muslim brotherhood (Turks) tries to take over the country for decades).
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    Post  JohninMK Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:04 pm

    Isos wrote:
    Haftar supports are Europeans and Arabs. They are the one that will lose big if GNA takes the country. Erdogan can open a new entry door for migrants into EU when he wants and Arab will have Erdogan's terrorists at their border (spexially Egypt where the muslim brotherhood (Turks) tries to take over the country for decades).

    This is a must win for Erdogan, the benefits to him would run off this page.
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    Post  Azi Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:06 pm

    Isos wrote:
    Russia is completely silent about this. As I theorize, it simply gave up Libya to Turkey in return for Syria. NATO was also sounding the alarm about Russia building an airbase in Libya and started flying strategic bombers in the Black Sea and Baltic over the past week.
    Libya is not really worth it for Russia; Syria is what it really needs.

    Libya is really up to Egypt, Greece, France, etc... all these countries that expressed outrage over Turkish intervention. No reason for Russia to fight their war for them.

    They have no interest in Haftar. They just provide what UAE and Egypt pay for (mercenaries, pantsirs and jets). If Russia really wanted to get involved in that war they would send 3 or 4 su34 in Egypt and bomb the shit out of GNA and that would be quicker than in Syria.

    Some people in Moscow just became very rich with all the equipment they sold there. And if you don't understand the rule of the weapon seller it's simple : the longer the war last the more they sell. Right now all the weapons used there are mostly russians (they even sold mig-29 and su24 to a guerilla...). That's their only interest. Libya's fate is non of their concern but European's and arab's

    Haftar supports are Europeans and Arabs. They are the one that will lose big if GNA takes the country. Erdogan can open a new entry door for migrants into EU when he wants and Arab will have Erdogan's terrorists at their border (spexially Egypt where the muslim brotherhood (Turks) tries to take over the country for decades).
    I wouldn't say that...of course Russia is payed by Egypt and UAE! But beside that they won't risk a strong position of Turkey in this conflict, because Turkey could be a competitor in the energy market. With GNA Russia will have ZERO influence in Libya, with LNA they will not have Libya under their control, but Libya would be open to russian companies.

    By the way...Turkey is openly supporting hardcore terrorists in Libya, if the war is over they will focus again against Syria and after Syria on other parts of the world.

    At moment Libya is a financial win for Russia and political dangerous, so that Russia won't support Haftar open with own forces. They still want to sell Turkey a second regiment of S-400 ;D
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    Post  Isos Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:11 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    Isos wrote:
    Haftar supports are Europeans and Arabs. They are the one that will lose big if GNA takes the country. Erdogan can open a new entry door for migrants into EU when he wants and Arab will have Erdogan's terrorists at their border (spexially Egypt where the muslim brotherhood (Turks) tries to take over the country for decades).

    This is a must win for Erdogan, the benefits to him would run off this page.

    That won't happen. His projection capabilities are few drones and outdated US frigates.

    Europeans already destroyed Libya. It's not the GNA supported by 10 turkish drones that will stop them.

    Turkey is lucky that there is no political will by europeans to go in which are good with the fact that Egypt and UAE support Haftar. If Erdogan pushes too much he will feel it badly.

    Again Erdogan is playing with fire while having nothing to protect himself. Egypt could end the war in matter of days and by looking at the contract they may sign with Italy it seems they will very likely go in after the summer.
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    Post  Azi Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:15 pm

    According to breaking news LNA is suffering today huge territory losses!!!

    LNA retreated only today from Tarhuna, Bani Walid and retreat from Sirte is in full progress. So LNA has lost nearly ALL territory before the offensive. Bani Walid is not in full control of GNA, but LNA retreated complete. In the next weeks, if nothing happens, the battle for Benghazi will start.

    This is really weird to me, because nothing really changed in the last weeks...okay GNA had constant reinforcements from Turkey. And Turkish Forces are operating open with GNA. With LNA only hidden actors are active. Maybe Egypt will step into the conflict open and confront Turkey. It's unlikely that Russia will step into the conflict open, because a few deals with Turkey are ongoing Wink but I won't rule this out completely!

    For sure LNA needs competent soldiers and better equipment. Pantsir is good, but it's not working in a AD network...they should combine it with Buk Systems. No S-300 or S-400 needed, this would be a waste of ressources for Libya. LNA should learn the usa of combined arms, something ironic the GNA learned with turkish help.


    Last edited by Azi on Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:23 pm; edited 2 times in total
    Isos
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    Post  Isos Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:15 pm

    I wouldn't say that...of course Russia is payed by Egypt and UAE! But beside that they won't risk a strong position of Turkey in this conflict, because Turkey could be a competitor in the energy market. With GNA Russia will have ZERO influence in Libya, with LNA they will not have Libya under their control, but Libya would be open to russian companies.

    By the way...Turkey is openly supporting hardcore terrorists in Libya, if the war is over they will focus again against Syria and after Syria on other parts of the world.

    At moment Libya is a financial win for Russia and political dangerous, so that Russia won't support Haftar open with own forces. They still want to sell Turkey a second regiment of S-400 ;D

    What interest would they have in having some sort of control over Libya ? The country is totally destroyed and they will never control Libyan oil. They will need easily 20 years after the end of the war which already last for 10 years to rebuild the country to a decent level.
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    Post  Azi Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:19 pm

    Isos wrote:
    I wouldn't say that...of course Russia is payed by Egypt and UAE! But beside that they won't risk a strong position of Turkey in this conflict, because Turkey could be a competitor in the energy market. With GNA Russia will have ZERO influence in Libya, with LNA they will not have Libya under their control, but Libya would be open to russian companies.

    By the way...Turkey is openly supporting hardcore terrorists in Libya, if the war is over they will focus again against Syria and after Syria on other parts of the world.

    At moment Libya is a financial win for Russia and political dangerous, so that Russia won't support Haftar open with own forces. They still want to sell Turkey a second regiment of S-400 ;D

    What interest would they have in having some sort of control over Libya ? The country is totally destroyed and they will never control Libyan oil. They will need easily 20 years after the end of the war which already last for 10 years to rebuild the country to a decent level.
    Why would you say they will never have control of libyan oil or gas? Okay they wouldn't have it alone...maybe a joint venture with french companies. Libya and Egypt completly lacks the technology and expertise to take advantage of the oil and gas reservoirs for their own.

    Another factor is to counter turkish influence in med sea. Turkish population is growing fast and they are not a 3rd world country. Erdogan is considering own nukes... so you will see maybe a huge powershift in the next 20 years. Main goal ist to keep Erdo losing, so that he is history in a few years. Not only USA...but Erdo mostly created the galactic mess in Syria!
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    Post  Isos Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:46 pm

    Why would you say they will never have control of libyan oil or gas? Okay they wouldn't have it alone...maybe a joint venture with french companies. Libya and Egypt completly lacks the technology and expertise to take advantage of the oil and gas reservoirs for their own.

    They don't need to control Haftar for that. The Libyan giv (no matter which one is) will play with all the oil producers to reach an agreement anyway. War time friends are not peace time friends.

    Another factor is to counter turkish influence in med sea. Turkish population is growing fast and they are not a 3rd world country. Erdogan is considering own nukes... so you will see maybe a huge powershift in the next 20 years. Main goal ist to keep Erdo losing, so that he is history in a few years. Not only USA...but Erdo mostly created the galactic mess in Syria!

    IIRC turkish nuclear reactors are russian made so they can't make any nuclear weapon without direct Russian help which will never happen.

    It's EAU and Saudi Arabia who created the syrian war. Erdogan came later with a pathetic attempt to create its own califat...

    If Erdogan keeps its military foreign policy he will found out very soon that he has no military capability beyond its borders and will probably start a war involving Turkey directly. The day some cruise missile will destroy turkish energy and let 80 million without electricity, food and water he will be in danger in Turkey.
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    Post  ultimatewarrior Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:49 pm

    Russia should stay out of the Libya mess. Whoever Russia supports America will attack. If Russia supports GNA then US will attack GNA. If Russia supports LNA then US will attack LNA. US simply hates Russia and wants Russia gone for good.
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    Post  flamming_python Sat Jun 06, 2020 12:16 am

    Russia has no real interests in Libya

    Ofc it would be better for Russia if Haftar wins, and awards some oil/gas contracts and weapons sales to Russian producers. But it's just not vital
    Libya has a lot of oil/gas reserves. Well Russia was never going to have control over them. NATO already finished Libya off, and it looked more like the resources would just pass into the hands of the Europeans. Instead now they're going to be in the hands of the Turks... well so either Europeans or Turks. No real difference to Russia.

    It's not worth damaging relations with Turkey over, it's not worth the NATO panic over Russia stationing missiles there (when Russia can do just the same with Kilo subs in the Mediterranean instead), and so on. You have to be strategic.

    What Libya really is is foremost Egypt's and Greece's problem. Egypt because it's a neighbouring country, which can now potentially end up with a Muslim Brotherhood govt same as Turkey and the US installed in Egypt in 2011. And Greece because the Libyan GNA have decided to acquise to Turkish intentions to steal Cyprus's natural resources within its maritime economic zone, in return for Turkish military backing.
    And France has also decided to join in this mess in a big parade of European solidarity, backing up the Greek bros.

    So let Egypt, Greece and France handle it. And if they're not willing, then why should Russia lift a finger?
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    Post  JohninMK Sat Jun 06, 2020 12:28 am

    Spriter
    @ynms79797979
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    55m
    Under UN agreements, LNA has moved more than 60 kilometers from the Tripoli area to allow for new ceasefire talks, LNA spokesman Masmeri said.
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    Post  ultimatewarrior Sat Jun 06, 2020 5:05 am

    JohninMK wrote:Spriter
    @ynms79797979
    ·
    55m
    Under UN agreements, LNA has moved more than 60 kilometers from the Tripoli area to allow for new ceasefire talks, LNA spokesman Masmeri said.

    Erdogan will never negotiate. Erdogan aims to take back Egypt for Turkey.
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    Post  ultimatewarrior Sat Jun 06, 2020 5:07 am

    flamming_python wrote:Russia has no real interests in Libya

    Ofc it would be better for Russia if Haftar wins, and awards some oil/gas contracts and weapons sales to Russian producers. But it's just not vital
    Libya has a lot of oil/gas reserves. Well Russia was never going to have control over them. NATO already finished Libya off, and it looked more like the resources would just pass into the hands of the Europeans. Instead now they're going to be in the hands of the Turks... well so either Europeans or Turks. No real difference to Russia.

    It's not worth damaging relations with Turkey over, it's not worth the NATO panic over Russia stationing missiles there (when Russia can do just the same with Kilo subs in the Mediterranean instead), and so on. You have to be strategic.

    What Libya really is is foremost Egypt's and Greece's problem. Egypt because it's a neighbouring country, which can now potentially end up with a Muslim Brotherhood govt same as Turkey and the US installed in Egypt in 2011. And Greece because the Libyan GNA have decided to acquise to Turkish intentions to steal Cyprus's natural resources within its maritime economic zone, in return for Turkish military backing.
    And France has also decided to join in this mess in a big parade of European solidarity, backing up the Greek bros.

    So let Egypt, Greece and France handle it. And if they're not willing, then why should Russia lift a finger?

    Tripoli government is Turkey backed. Therefore Tripoli government will never have diplomatic relation with Syria just as Turkey will never have diplomatic relation with Syria. While it is true Russia has no interest in Libya, at least Benghazi government has diplomatic relation with Syria and Egypt has diplomatic relation with Syria, which is beneficial to Russia because Russia has diplomatic relation with Syria.
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    Post  medo Sat Jun 06, 2020 6:34 am

    ultimatewarrior wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:Russia has no real interests in Libya

    Ofc it would be better for Russia if Haftar wins, and awards some oil/gas contracts and weapons sales to Russian producers. But it's just not vital
    Libya has a lot of oil/gas reserves. Well Russia was never going to have control over them. NATO already finished Libya off, and it looked more like the resources would just pass into the hands of the Europeans. Instead now they're going to be in the hands of the Turks... well so either Europeans or Turks. No real difference to Russia.

    It's not worth damaging relations with Turkey over, it's not worth the NATO panic over Russia stationing missiles there (when Russia can do just the same with Kilo subs in the Mediterranean instead), and so on. You have to be strategic.

    What Libya really is is foremost Egypt's and Greece's problem. Egypt because it's a neighbouring country, which can now potentially end up with a Muslim Brotherhood govt same as Turkey and the US installed in Egypt in 2011. And Greece because the Libyan GNA have decided to acquise to Turkish intentions to steal Cyprus's natural resources within its maritime economic zone, in return for Turkish military backing.
    And France has also decided to join in this mess in a big parade of European solidarity, backing up the Greek bros.

    So let Egypt, Greece and France handle it. And if they're not willing, then why should Russia lift a finger?

    Tripoli government is Turkey backed. Therefore Tripoli government will never have diplomatic relation with Syria just as Turkey will never have diplomatic relation with Syria. While it is true Russia has no interest in Libya, at least Benghazi government has diplomatic relation with Syria and Egypt has diplomatic relation with Syria, which is beneficial to Russia because Russia has diplomatic relation with Syria.

    Syria have relations with Benghazi as well as some agreements. Syria also have relations with UAE. They all have common enemy, Turkey and terrorists from Idlib. Could be, that those few MiG-29 and Su-24 jets, which went top Libya are actually SyAF jets from the first batch. They went to Libya as help from Syria and most probably it was UAE, who pay for all those jets, which went to Libya and which stay in Syria. MiGs are also modernized, so for sure someone pay for that, I doubt Russia modernize and deliver them for free. Question is, how deep those MiG-29 are modernized. If they are upgraded to SM level, than they are multirole, than they are effective also in their attacks on ground targets as well as on the sea targets. Big improvement for LNA comparing to old MiG-21 and MiG-23 they have.
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    Post  JohninMK Sat Jun 06, 2020 11:42 am

    A USAF C-17 has just completed the Ramstein/Tripoli/Ankara/Ramstein round trip. Wonder if a Pantsir has started its long trip to its new home in the US Army enemy weapons battleground or Red Flag zone?

    Meanwhile its seems to be a case of easy come, easy go!

    Oryx
    @oryxspioenkop
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    12h
    We're currently only seven AFVs away from the LNA having lost 100 tanks, BMPs and SPGs to the GNA in just two days. C'mon LNA, you can do it! Sharing is caring!

    Lost Weapons
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    newly delivered Russian T-62M and 62MVs captured. plus some M30 howitizers

    Lost Weapons
    @LostWeapons
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    50m
    Talking about like an armored battalion worth of vehicles being left behind. approaching 100 now.

    Lost Weapons
    @LostWeapons
    ·
    1h
    Some of the crazy amount of weapons and vehicles left behind by LNA as they fled greater tripoli. Sirte could now fall next. Shame GNA doesnt have unified media like Syria so you could see all the weapons captured. Every GNA fighter on instagram has a truck full of weapons now




    Oryx
    @oryxspioenkop
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    12h
    The first sighting of a Russian-delivered T-62M tank in Libya. Of course after having been abandoned by the LNA in perfect running order. This is the third Russian-delivered tank to have been captured in two days, after two T-62MVs were already captured earlier.


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    Post  JohninMK Sat Jun 06, 2020 11:53 am

    In the comments this is claimed to be clearing a shopping centre of weapons but it might just be the locals having to come to terms with the activities of Syrian terrorists having fun. Video at link.

    Libya Review
    @LibyaReview
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    GNA forces loot Al-Shqaaiqa mall in Tarhouna, west Libya. #Libya #LibyaReview


    https://twitter.com/LibyaReview/status/1268983830200954882
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    Libyan Crisis - Page 31 Empty Re: Libyan Crisis

    Post  JohninMK Sat Jun 06, 2020 12:12 pm

    This is starting to look a bit like WW2 movements to and fro in North Africa

    Looks like they've topped up their fuel tanks, had a bit of grub, a sleep so now.........................

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    Al-Wefaq GNA forces announce through a statement that instructions have been issued to start the offensive and advance towards the Sirte
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    Libyan Crisis - Page 31 Empty Re: Libyan Crisis

    Post  AbdulhamidtheSecond Sat Jun 06, 2020 1:59 pm

    In twitter I read many claims regarding Sirte elders offered to hand over city to GNA, as LNA forces are on retreat.

    Given that south cities like Sehba declared support for GNA, it appears in few days Libya will be split 50/50.


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