The Situation in the Ukraine. #6

TR1, take a seat.
You're not going to like this

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/739569

Talks on Ukraine-EU association deal to kick off in Moscow July 11 — Italian FM

KIEV, July 08. /ITAR-TASS/. Three-party talks involving Ukraine, the European Union and Russia on an association agreement between Ukraine and the EU will kick off in Moscow on Friday, July 11, Italian Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini, who is currently in the Ukrainian capital Kiev on a visit, said Tuesday.

“We are happy that talks between Ukraine, the EU and the Russian Federation regarding implementation of the association agreement are starting on Friday. I must say that the signing of the economic part of the association agreement is important not only for Ukraine, but also for the European Union,” Mogherini told a briefing.

...

Balancing between CIS and EU

Economists advise Kiev to try to keep Ukraine’s positions on CIS markets to the maximum, as Ukraine, after the association deal is signed, will fail to sharply increase its exports because the free trade agreement with the EU is designed for gradual introduction over 10 years.

Besides, Ukraine has yet failed to introduce European standards and technical regulations, so its products will not conform to EU requirements and will therefore not be exported to Europe.

In this connection, experts say, the Ukrainian government needs to analyze the situation attentively and try to push for some additional concessions on the part of the European Union while preserving economic relations with the CIS and Russia first and foremost.

The true betrayal. It seems Russia wants to keep the Ukraine on life-support after all; like we are meant to pay for them, like we're meant to owe them something, like we need something from them.

And who will pay for this? Russian companies? Russian businesses? Russian producers?
For artificially support a dying country, putting out low-quality controlled products that we should aim to rid the dependence of as fast as possible?
And what is this country that we should help? The one foaming at the mouth about Russians and Russia, wiping out dissent with military force?
This country?

They have lost (well, are losing) the defense market, no playing both sides when it comes to that, so I am happy.

This is why Russia should have taken my advice years ago. Zero help for Ukraine beyond normal economic relations with a neighbor. No development, no joint projects, no nothing. Treat them fairly, but nothing past that. If it makes them look to Europe, all the better. Less cost for Russia to prop up a bankrupt neighbor.

Combined with internal development in Russia, and Ukraine would come crawling back eventually anyways. Now the siutation is far more difficult. And I have doubts as to the internal situation in Russia changing so that full potential will come out in the next decade or two. But that is harder to control. External partnership is not- and Ukraine should have been marked for the axe long ago.

Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Asia in general, all far better and realistic prospects to court and build relationships with, relationships that don't cost Russia rubles.
Although dealing with countries where rule of law actually exists is much harder for certain folks to stuff their pockets. Ukraine and Belarus and Russia are great for that.

Slavic brotherhood is dead, forget it. Not relevant whatsoever in the 21st century anyways. Plus, their language sounds retarded.

[/quote]

Projected is never in line with reality. Russias growth could be negative but so far, its in the positive. But one thing is for ceetain, even if a small recession of 5%, It will be better for Russia long term. As been noted,l before, China is moving to a domestic demand for growth as foreign sales are down. Russia is planning the same thing. Besides money obtained from taxation of oil and gas, the next biggest factor that is right now helping the decline of Russian economic growth but helped Iran is the domestic consumption. Problem is, people are witholding spending in Russia of economic fear, but these fears then end up causing a problem because they dont end up spending.  Consumer consumption is a massive part of pretty much everyones economy unless you are of a country with mostly poor people. What drive Canadas economy if not sale of oil and gas, is the service sector which helps consumers.  If sanctions hit, then Russians have to rely on domestic development in order to sell to their own people.

Many people here say that Russia relies on sales to Europe, then goes to say thay all is sold is oil and gas. Well, let me tell you, Russia then does not have much to lose, because Italy along with Austria and Hungary are not interested in sanctions and want the oil and gas. Yet Russian GDP didnt go up even with Chinese oil and gas deal, so it could also mean that oil and gas does not play a massive part in tge economy like some claim it does.

Unless one can explain to me how it will hurt average consumer. If you think not being able to buy a mercedes or bmw is hurting average consumer, then I think you need a good taste of reality. Most to all technilogical sales are from China. Germany is heavy industrial equipment and Fashion. Russia then builds their own cars as well as pruchasing tech from china wont stop.

Agriculture? Well, since Russia has no subsidies in place for agriculture, they can do it later. Even without it, Russia is growing exporter in it. Biggest sales of Russian equipment isnt even to EU or US. Mostly third world countries or CIS. Sanctions from EU wont stop that sales. China is growing interest in Russian products.

So once again, what does Russia sell and buy from EU that is so vital?[/quote]
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My reply:

If projections 5-6 months ahead are "not reality", then lets use growth for 2013, shall we? Russia's economy experienced very poor growth for 2013, which ended at 1,3%. There is absolutely NO CHANCE what so ever that Russia will be able to go above 1,3% for 2014. On the contrary, 1% is the best Russia can hope for, but as of now, Russia is balancing around 0% growth.

The "best" Ukraine can hope for is 5% recession or even worse - 7% recession.

I am not worried about Russia's ally China. China is doing very well, militarily, with techonology and with the economy. It is the Russia that has problems, as NATO and the EU have declared massive proxy war against Russia on two fronts -Ukraine/Moldova and Georgia. I addition to this, in Syria and Iraq. This is all happening after NATO slaughtered Russia's ally Libya.

So NATO/EU are on massive offencive, while Russia is clearly the one being pushed back from the territories where Russia had influence earlier. This cannot be denied.

It is totally opposite with China. China is the one that is on the offencive, making U.S. defend. China is fortunately strong enough to make U.S. dogs be afraid, LOL. And China is the one that can declare where their zone is, which China has the right to do, such as controlling First Island Chain among other things which is vital for national security. China has a lot more to fight with, while Russias Black Sea Fleet is almost non-existent. We are still waiting for those 6 Grigorovich-class frigates and we are still waiting for those 6 Improved Kilo-class SSK. They are still nowhere to be seen, so Black Sea Fleet ships are everything between 31 and 40 years old (Slava and Kerch). It's embarrasing, as these ships had to face U.S. Ticonderoga class ship yesterday at those exercises in the Black Sea.

If you count the whole EU, they are unfortunately still the biggest trading partner of Russia.

But if you look by country-by-country basis, then China is most important to Russia along with Germany as things stand today.

China on the other hand has managed to de-throne the U.S. as their biggest export destination. Now, it is Hong-Kong that is China's biggest export destination while South Korea is the biggest import partner.

sepheronx wrote:

TR1 wrote:

T055 wrote:
Furthermore, lets be real. Russia is still too weak militarily to attack and take the whole "Novorossija" area. Putin knows this.

No, actually it has the capability to do is easily, if you want to be "real". But it should not.

Exactly. And as sad as this sounds, would make a good test run of Russias latest digital comm systems and link system to otger combat units. Heck, the amount of T-90s and Sukhois in western Russia, would roll over Ukraine pretty easily. Problem would be insurgent style combat that would lead afterwards.

I will admit if Russia got involved militarily, they would create more enemies than friends, and possibly many Russians will die needlessly. But sitting around and doing nothing is far from a good tactic. Atleast arming and funding the rebels is much better.

Duh, that is exactly my point. Russia would suffer HEAVY losses. So there is "no rolling over". Kiev is hostile to Russia and it has been the case since 2004 and 2010 elections. Yulia winning Kiev each time. Now Mr IMF won it.

So Russia could roll Donbass but from there, things start to get extremely complicated, and the closer you try to get to Kiev the more losses Russian forces would have to take.

Ukraine is just too big for Russia still today. Just as Georgia was "too big" for Russia in August 2008, where I expected Russia to take on Tbilisi but it never happened. So don't ever expect Russia to take on Kiev or ANYTHING CLOSE to Kiev, EVER. Just not happening, without massive suffering on both sides.

It's not going to be Crimea where only 2 people lost their lives.

Russia routed Georgia with inferior numerically forces, no preperations, and never made any attempt to take Tbilsi.

If Russia wanted, it could take Ukraine with ease within a month. Their armed forces are in a terrible shape. The costs would be international, not military.\

Massive losses, please. Several Russian brigades, appropriate air and artillery support, and the Ukranian armed forces rout. It is not happening, but not because of inability. The preponderance of the Russian mil over Ukraine is massive.

TR1 wrote:Russia routed Georgia with inferior numerically forces, no preperations, and never made any attempt to take Tbilsi.

If Russia wanted, it could take Ukraine with ease within a month. Their armed forces are in a terrible shape. The costs would be international, not military.\

Massive losses, please. Several Russian brigades, appropriate air and artillery support, and the Ukranian armed forces rout. It is not happening, but not because of inability. The preponderance of the Russian mil over Ukraine is massive.

This is wishful thinking. You would be battling Ukrainian army under fully NATO-advised manevours, also supplies with NATO weapons or other Soviet/Russian weapons through Poland and Romania.

There is no chance for Russia to take Kiev, as Kiev IS HOSTILE to Russia and once again - Yanukovich lost Kiev both in 2004 and 2010 elections. He never won it. That's why it was so easy to take a coup against him. He was residing and being president in already a hostile city, which he never won as his support is naturally from Southern and Eastern Ukraine.

T055 wrote:

TR1 wrote:Russia routed Georgia with inferior numerically forces, no preperations, and never made any attempt to take Tbilsi.

If Russia wanted, it could take Ukraine with ease within a month. Their armed forces are in a terrible shape. The costs would be international, not military.\

Massive losses, please. Several Russian brigades, appropriate air and artillery support, and the Ukranian armed forces rout. It is not happening, but not because of inability. The preponderance of the Russian mil over Ukraine is massive.

This is wishful thinking. You would be battling Ukrainian army under fully NATO-advised manevours, also supplies with NATO weapons or other Soviet/Russian weapons through Poland and Romania.

There is no chance for Russia to take Kiev, as Kiev IS HOSTILE to Russia and once again - Yanukovich lost Kiev both in 2004 and 2010 elections. He never won it. That's why it was so easy to take a coup against him. He was residing and being president in already a hostile city, which he never won as his support is naturally from Southern and Eastern Ukraine.

Russia can cut off the large concentration of forces in the Donbass (most of their combat-able forces), with just one maneuver, while the rest of the armoured forces make a beeline straight for Kiev. That would mean all their professional troops, huge amounts of artillery and armoured forces, and a good amount of their air-force - cut-off and encircled. From there they can either surrender or be annihilated by artillery.

There are some local pro-Russian forces that can be called upon to rise up in support in Kiev; of course the amount of anti-Russians is much greater, but it is something. Then - humanitarian corridors, followed by a block by block clearing of the whole city. Will take weeks. But Russia can afford it at its leisure, rest of Kiev's forces won't be able to give it much trouble; a rabble of poorly trained militias, etc...

The biggest problem honestly, will be the Ukrainian anti-air and anti-naval forces. The later can be avoided by simply being cautious with the fleet, and not taking any risks; while the former - well it's something that the Russian air force has to master and train for - how to operate in such a potential environment

Civilian casualties directly from Russian military action will be in the high thousands, massive collateral damage; albeit mainly to Kiev and a few other significant cities or strategic targets that can't be simply bypassed.

So like TR1 was saying, the main problem isn't military. In fact in this case it would be political/international, and humanitarian, because Ukro Nazis will inevitably go nuts and start ethnic cleansings, etc... hundreds of thousands of refugees, much hate of Russia, etc...
And the international reaction well it goes w/o saying, Western hysteria aside - over something like this Russia would seriously be risking losing support from even Asia, Middle East and S. America which has almost all remained neutral or mildly supportive of Russia over this whole situation.
This whole thing would be very very ugly, and if Russian forces would have to end up staying, and it's quite possible that they will - then it would eventually get ugly militarily too, they would be acting as an occupying force essentially.

So no, none of this crap is worth it.

[quote="T055"]

TR1 wrote:

There is no chance for Russia to take Kiev, as Kiev IS HOSTILE to Russia and once again - Yanukovich lost Kiev both in 2004 and 2010 elections. He never won it. That's why it was so easy to take a coup against him. He was residing and being president in already a hostile city, which he never won as his support is naturally from Southern and Eastern Ukraine.

In 2004 it was a coup. how can you count that? Declaring fraud on elections ..Yakunovich won legally the Presidency of Ukraine under monitored elections by UN and EU and he was Friendly to Russia.. the TImoshenko camp that was pro NATO lost.. So the PRo Russian people Do have enough power in Ukraine to win elections and become majority.

This is the Reason Why Russia avoid war with Ukraine ,because they could end killing Ukrainians that are Pro Russia being forced at gun point to fight in the army. In Crimea for example from 20,000 Ukrainians armed forces ,about 80% joinned Russia side ,the others left Crimea for Kiev. The Ukrainian navy about 90% defected to Russia. and you still think Russia have no chance.. LOL

And being hostile means nothing.. Hostility is no an advantage in any war.. weapons and training do.Look how easily Russia took Crimea without firing a single shot... The Rebels have been for months holding up ,and nearly destroying the entire Ukraine airforce and have captured hundreds of tanks from Ukraine and you still have the fresh face to say Russia cannot capture kiev? LOL  

Mr Expert in nothing , seems as you are trolling indeed. Russia have the army to defeat super powers like NATO in a land invasion inside Russia. In Ukraine all Russia needs is to decapitate Poroshenko and the army generals with Iskanders missiles and game over the nation. Because Ukraine is NOT united and in total mess Killing their leaders will provoke a civil war with the army split in half.  

If NATO invade Crimea for example ,Not a single NATO warship will remain afloat and no NATO airforce will penetrate Russia airspace.  You are 100% wrong if everything fantasy kid ,You are Wrong about everything ,about Russian economy ,Russian military and Ukraine capabilities too..  Ukraine soldiers are forced to fight and if Russia invade the first thing you will see is massive defections in the thousands. The kiev army will collapse/defect to Russian side withing 3 days .. only the neoNazis and NATO mercenaries will continue fighting.

Oh and by the way the Russian economy projections are near 2% for 2014 , at the moment they are in 1.3% to 1.5%.. not 0% as you told.
And once Russian pipelines start pumping Gas and oil  to CHina you will see a Huge Boost for Russian economy.. China alone will have more than US 1 Trillions dollars contract for 30 years with Russia in Gas and Oil  that will start to be paid as soon as 2018. Then you have India ,South Korea and Japan interested in Russian pipelines too.. So The economic Growth for Russia will be Huge withing in a 4-5 years term ,unless something totally extraordinary happen like a world war.. etc..

You guys are highly desillusioned ....

forget about Russian army in Ukraine. Kremlin won't ever send troops into Ukraine. That is the worst possible option they could ever consider. The sole purpose of the military buildup at the border was to have a secure and covered up arms flow to the separatists. Why don't you people get it ? Kremlin won't risk sending it's troops into the fray, not with the possibility of NATO intervening in any given way. Be it with funds, weapons flow to Kiev, mercs or even some military assistance. That would be the most destructive waste of military resources from Russian side because if they intervene, they will have to deploy the most sophisticated weapons, especialy AA for at least giving NATO an inch of reluctance about providing Kiev some air support .... and loosing them for what ?? a battle over Ukraine ? no. That won't happen. This crisis will settle down with political compromises instead of risking loosing half it's military assets and most importantly it's face. Apart of that how can you even assume that the Ukrainian people won't turn completly against you in such an event and do a general mobilisation of the population. It will be an enormous waste of money and military for absolutly no significant gains. Putin is not stupid. I'm glad he's in command and not some brainless hardliners from Soviet stone age. What will happen now is that all sides settle down for economic compromises. Because this conflcit is all about profit and some strategic shift ( Crimea ) - again because of economic profit.

Noone is jumping around demanding a war .... stop believing that.

You are not reading what (some) of us are saying. We (at least I am) are against intervention. It is simply a matter of military comparison- if Russia wanted, it could kick the hell of Ukraine with ease.
Obviously the complications are multifaceted, and not just NATO related.

I have been against intervention from the start, and this is not meant to be a dick measuring contest- but in purely factual terms, Ukraine is no big challenge for the Russian military.

There is a lot of stupidity in this thread (I think people are gonna look real dumb when no genocide happens), but let's call a spade a spade. Ukraine's military sucks.

TR1 wrote:They have lost (well, are losing) the defense market, no playing both sides when it comes to that, so I am happy.

This is why Russia should have taken my advice years ago. Zero help for Ukraine beyond normal economic relations with a neighbor. No development, no joint projects, no nothing. Treat them fairly, but nothing past that. If it makes them look to Europe, all the better. Less cost for Russia to prop up a bankrupt neighbor.

Combined with internal development in Russia, and Ukraine would come crawling back eventually anyways. Now the siutation is far more difficult. And I have doubts as to the internal situation in Russia changing so that full potential will come out in the next decade or two. But that is harder to control. External partnership is not- and Ukraine should have been marked for the axe long ago.

Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Asia in general, all far better and realistic prospects to court and build relationships with, relationships that don't cost Russia rubles.
Although dealing with countries where rule of law actually exists is much harder for certain folks to stuff their pockets. Ukraine and Belarus and Russia are great for that.

Slavic brotherhood is dead, forget it. Not relevant whatsoever in the 21st century anyways. Plus, their language sounds retarded.

Aggree on everything except the last part, Slavic brotherhood isn't dead it is artificially damaged by anglo-saxon divide et impera tactics, and russia did nothing to counter this propaganda to prevent hatred towards russians by brainwashed russians who call themselfs (ulrainians).

You guys are highly desillusioned ....

forget about Russian army in Ukraine. Kremlin won't ever send troops into Ukraine. That is the worst possible option they could ever consider.

Who exactly is here desillusioned? The absolute majority of people here are all against intervention, because of exact the scenario anglo-saxon zionistic regime wants, a guerilla war against russia to harm it severe for long term, they would fund even more the fascists and radicals and would send any russophobe radical into ukraine so the meat on the frontline never ends, like they did to every Arabic country that did not lick Washingtons rear.

LMAO at those who think Ukrs would stand a chance against Russian army. Ukrs can't even beat few mens with rifles and couple AT/AA systems.

If those mean to be "Russian agents" then how in the hell You can think about defeating a 40.000 army? Just that is ridiculous! No need to quote more!   

Good thread about situation in the Ukraine gets derailed by some BS 'stronkkk' talks I would suggest the moderator to move couple last pages to appropiate topic so people interested in the situation in the SE could post and get some info.

Just my 5 cents.

Hey, thegeorgian, you do realize that this thread is about Ukraine?
If you want to share your opinion about how russian view of 888 war is distorted, then maybe you should consider using a dedicated thread for that?
...
Yeah, what fragmachine said  

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USA admitted that it gave ukraine 33 millions of USD of military aid since the start of the crisis.
And the aid is continuing, it's reported that in the next two months USA will give 150 NVGs, 150 thermal viewers, 1000 kevlar helmets, 96 radio devices (I'd guess pretty advanced ones, given the number)
http://www.delfi.lt/news/daily/world/pentagonas-ukrainai-ruosia-karines-pagalbos-siunta.d?id=65255412

GarryB wrote:Have had a tidy up.

Posts removed have gone here:

https://www.russiadefence.net/t3259-russia-vs-us-military-and-economy-and-this-forum-isn-t-fair

You can argue to your hearts content that the US could defeat a Russian intervention into the Ukraine with 1,000 tomahawks and 200 B-2s and that it all doesn't matter because this year Russian economic growth is 1% or less to the sky is falling anyway. :rolleyes:   :yawn:

Ahhh, but why you had to remove my wonderful "Russia in star wars franchise" posts?     


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Because of the influx of refugees emergency mode introduced in six regions of Russia. On it informs RIA Novosti quoted Deputy Emergencies Vladimir Artamonov.

"On the territory of Rostov, Volgograd and Astrakhan regions, Kalmykia, Stavropol and Sevastopol introduced state of emergency" - said Artamonov in the Federation Council at the meeting of the relevant committee.

He added that in the Belgorod and Voronezh regions introduced state of high alert in view of the situation that has developed there.

Recall that from the beginning of June in Rostov region arrived about 200,000 residents of south-eastern Ukraine.

- All this - Ukrainian civilians, women and children who, because of the fighting on their home ground were forced to leave their homes and flee. We regard this as a real humanitarian disaster - said the head of the Rostov Region Vasily Golubev.

Earlier, the emergency regime was introduced in the Rostov region, then it was announced in Stavropol and Volgograd region. In connection with the termination of the armistice in Ukraine Emergencies Minister Vladimir Puchkov suggested to declare a state of emergency in the south of Russia and the North Caucasus. Total Donbass residents take in 30 regions of Russia.

http://www.rg.ru/2014/07/10/reg-ufo/regim-anons.html

I don't understand the Russian policy. For sure the self defense forces can hold their positions in the next weeks even months but they are outnumbered. Without help from Russia they won't win this war. The junta will bomb Donezk and Lugansk and the west won't say single word about it.
I don't understand what they are waiting for.

This is just too much I can't stop laughing long enough to breathe  

http://aloban75.livejournal.com/760639.html

flamming_python wrote:This is just too much I can't stop laughing long enough to breathe  

http://coub.com/view/2dyhi

Link doesn't work.