The Situation in the Ukraine. #6

ERA consistent with Sep tanks + no UkArmy T-64s appeared in the area of the block-post.

TR1 wrote:ERA consistent with Sep tanks + no UkArmy T-64s appeared in the area of the block-post.

There were no reports of seps having T-64 in slaviansk.
Also, strelkov said that those destroyed vehicles were ukrainian, there were no DNR markings on them.


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To regular:
"Slovensk mayor is alcoholic who is still imprisoned (?) by his good friend."

Nope.

Strelkov sai they lost all their armoured group in a fake attack on a checkpoint. But he didn't say what type of vehicles was in the armoured group.

Very interesting article (google translation).


General Staff of Ukraine: we on the eve of disaster

Source of Kiev reported that the Ukrainian General Staff panic reign - from day to day expected catastrophic defeat ATO forces in the southern direction.

It is reported that the plan of operations developed by the General Staff and implemented since the beginning of June has repeatedly and flagrantly violated the SBU under pressure and so-called "advisers." In particular, the plan called Cleave lines Debalcevo Dmitrov-and-Amvrosievka Debalcevo Donetsk to isolate and secure the left flank forces ATO, advancing from the south along the border and on Izvarino Krasnodon.

If the offensive forces on the ATO Debalcevo by Dimitrov, ended up on the outskirts Gorlovki, but does not entail tragic consequences, the unsuccessful strike by ATU Amvrosiivka put all in a critical situation. Besides that failed "to raid" to capture the very Amvrosievka and snowy, but in the hands of the militia remained the same height Saur-Grave. Given the fact that in the battle for the first time applied snowy militia armor (including tanks) in large quantities - Ukrainian side says about 15 tanks, as well as the fact that the troops DNR actively used air defenses, Ukrainian General Staff insisted adjustment plans operation, but the management of the SBU and "advisers" insisted on the continuation of a dashing attack along the border with unsecured flanks.

As a result of such adjustments of operational plans by the secret services and zakordonnyh specialists, the main group of southern forces ATO, with a lot of tanks, other armored vehicles and artillery moved forward more than 60 kilometers along the border, leaving in their rear narrow "isthmus" between Mount Saur Grave and the Russian border - no more than 7-8 kilometers. That is all supply convoy forces proved ATO as the palm before militias - in clear weather with Saur-Graves even seen the Azov Sea, to which 90 kilometers.

Punishment for stupidity followed immediately - from mid-June to the end of "truce", according to the Ukrainian General Staff, in the south of reconnaissance and sabotage groups DNR were attacked and partially destroyed more than 20 columns of supply. Currently grouping of forces ATO, which has won checkpoint "Dolzhansky" and approaches from the south to the Sverdlovsk is efficient conditionally because lack of fuel and food. Basis ATU forces in this "polukotle" is a 72-th separate guard Krasnogradsky Kiev Order of the Red Banner Mechanized Brigade, the soldiers which in principle do not feel much enthusiasm during combat operations against militia Donbass.

But if before July 4 promotion ATU forces with unsecured flank was just an adventure undertaken in the hope that the militia has no reserves to attack, then the next day, July 5, in Kiev when it became known that the garrison headed by Sloviansk small slipped out of the besieged city and arrived in Donetsk and snowy, the General Staff of Ukraine began outright panic.

The panic was exacerbated by the fact that on July 3 as a result of "friendly fire" (a common practice in APU) was seriously wounded Chief of the General Staff of Ukraine Mikhail Kutsin. As a result of this, as well as by the fact that immediately began undercover games and intrigues on the subject of who will take the place Kutsina, insignificant interaction between the Ministry of Internal Affairs, MAT, SBU, National Guard and "volunteer battalion" was finally broken.

Nevertheless, the General Staff has infected her anxiety of all stakeholders - and some hurried steps have been taken: ATU forces (which may have to scrape together and delivered to the place during the day) went to a decisive assault on the mountain Saur-Grave. In the forehead, on the open steppe, on heavy machine guns, and, as it turned out, under withering artillery fire - with a natural result. The only comforting moment - the greatest losses (up to half of the personnel) incurred volunteer battalion "Azov" (assemblage of lightly managed criminals and Nazis) than soldiers APU.

That fresh fact that Saur-Tomb and its surroundings militias created a powerful artillery fist, led the General Staff in complete despair - in the good in this situation urgently needs to begin withdraw troops from Dolzhanskogo and Sverdlovsk, but the leadership of ATO in general people are doing so as sane as Adolf Hitler in the situation with the Stalingrad "pot".

Currently many of the officers of the General Staff of Ukraine demoralized and depressed. Demoralized by the fact that the military actions led by amateurs from the security services, which lead to the collapse of the situation and defeat; suppressed the fact that from a logical and even beautiful ATU plan, SBU, "advisers" and "natsgvardiya" made ​​grinder and committed many war crimes, from liability for which trying to distance himself.

We must also say that the entire officer corps of the APU is in a constant state of stress in anticipation of operations "peace enforcement" by the Armed Forces. Ditto for competent officers Kiev clear that prospects for the ATO not seen any - stated goals are not achieved, the resources run out, the resistance increases rebellious republics ...


http://jpgazeta.ru/uv2014/genshtab-ukrainy-my-nakanune-katastrofy/

^ Interesting article but even if they are a bunch of incompetent idiot they still have the numbers!
The will simply roll over the self defense forces with their mass.

Without help Novorussia can't win this war against this scum from Kiev!

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What a brave man (((( RIP!!!


And the people from the diversion group which allowed Strelkov to retreat - REAL HEROES!!! Films must be made about this people!!

still have the numbers! 

Novorossia can win the war of attriction.

I'm afraid we will see Strelkov dead soon. Goons from Moscow are calling him traitor. Kurginyan is one of them and he is in Donetsk and he is compromising Girkin.
I feel sorry, but it reminds me of stalinistic attitude to soviet pow in ww2. I feel disgusted by Russian politics. I was warned by my russian friends that similar thing will happen..

Regular wrote:I'm afraid we will see Strelkov dead soon. Goons from Moscow are calling him traitor. Kurginyan is one of them and he is in Donetsk and he is compromising Girkin.
I feel sorry, but it reminds me of stalinistic attitude to soviet pow in ww2. I feel disgusted by Russian politics. I was warned by my russian friends that similar thing will happen..

Don't even know who this guy is. I'm guessing he's a Dugin, another person who claims close confidence with Putin but in reality has nothing to do with him.
Anyway, no use worrying about it.
New line of defense is Gorilovka-Donetsk, lets hope it holds, and that the rebels don't allow Ukrainian artillery to be set-up on key heights around the cities.

How in hell that old man ,judge people fighting in Ukraine saving civilians lives,while he is under air conditioner judging others . What that pathetic dinosaur say? he should be shot on sight.. Remembers me Gorvashev.

Some suspicious comments floating around in the Russian and Western press.
If Putin HAS got it wrong or is getting it wrong, personally I think it should be the end of his office.

Attempting soft power in this situation just looks moronic.

Even if the federalists win, they lose by having their cities bombed. While Kiev and Lvov etc remain totally unharmed.

From the Yanukovich situation to Donbass, to cow-towing to the evil American neo Cons, the constant warnings without anything to back them up, Putin just looks to have fucked up. Only thing he got right was the Crimea.

Really shit fucking show so far, IMO.

Russian territory being shelled. Softpower that Putin

There's a saying (it sounds like a derivative of the Chinese Yin-Yang Taoist philosophy) that "strength begets weakness".

Ok Putin considers himself absolute ruler. His circle consider him that too. The Kremlin is supposedly full of his pet projects, and that he gets his way on everything. From boning Anna Chapman and Alina Kabaeva, to deciding Zaryadye will have a park and not a civic building development. The assumption is that such leaders are in control of everything. The only danger is that they end up looking after their own power, rather than making the right decision. Talented staff may be lost, yes men surround. Gradually, there is a loss of reality.

Ironically when the decisiveness of 888 happened, it was Medvedev not Putin who was president. And I always considered Medv. a bit of a jelly, pro European etc.

Maybe Putin is just exhausted from having to run everything. Maybe the info he gets is utter crap. Maybe he wants to coast along a little while without the "risk" of a Ukraine invasion. Maybe he's just scared of himself.

Either way, great men sometimes go stale. They lose the element of greatness (not sure if Putin ever was but..).

The argument I read today suggested he wants Donbass as a "lever" on Kiev. Like Transnitria.
That sounds bizarre. What sort of place has all its residents want to be part of a country. All those residents WERE part of that country, til 1991. And of them were for upto 1100 yrs before. And Moscow refuses their request. The EU doesn't pussy foot around with its expansion. Why should Russia apologise for its people being Russian?

Its been clear that you watering down your population in these buffer states doesnt work. The current Ukraine is run by Lvovites. 8m dictating to 45m. And its been working. The Nazi midget has been bullying a great world power. How fucking ridiculous.

IMO. 

http://novorossia.su/ru/node/3629

Excellent news, Novorussian forces get their first Su-25. Ukrainian Su-25 have to make forced landing in Lugansk, Novorussian forces than capture the plane and a pilot. They also report, that they capture the first Ukrainian T-72 tank.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVSY8oQAudU

Novorussian forces also take T-54 tank from Donetsk museum and in Lugansk they take 1 more T-34 memorial tank in active duty.

Firebird wrote:There's a saying (it sounds like a derivative of the Chinese Yin-Yang Taoist philosophy) that "strength begets weakness".

Ok Putin considers himself absolute ruler. His circle consider him that too. The Kremlin is supposedly full of his pet projects, and that he gets his way on everything. From boning Anna Chapman and Alina Kabaeva, to deciding Zaryadye will have a park and not a civic building development. The assumption is that such leaders are in control of everything. The only danger is that they end up looking after their own power, rather than making the right decision. Talented staff may be lost, yes men surround. Gradually, there is a loss of reality.

Ironically when the decisiveness of 888 happened, it was Medvedev not Putin who was president. And I always considered Medv. a bit of a jelly, pro European etc.

Maybe Putin is just exhausted from having to run everything. Maybe the info he gets is utter crap. Maybe he wants to coast along a little while without the "risk" of a Ukraine invasion. Maybe he's just scared of himself.

Either way, great men sometimes go stale. They lose the element of greatness (not sure if Putin ever was but..).

The argument I read today suggested he wants Donbass as a "lever" on Kiev. Like Transnitria.
That sounds bizarre. What sort of place has all its residents want to be part of a country. All those residents WERE part of that country, til 1991. And of them were for upto 1100 yrs before. And Moscow refuses their request. The EU doesn't pussy foot around with its expansion. Why should Russia apologise for its people being Russian?

Its been clear that you watering down your population in these buffer states doesnt work. The current Ukraine is run by Lvovites. 8m dictating to 45m. And its been working. The Nazi midget has been bullying a great world power. How fucking ridiculous.

IMO. 

If you ever read Sun Tzu, than you know, that master of the war always show to enemy what he want him to see, not what he have to see. The game of the mirrors. Putin knows well, that Russia is in war with US, not with Ukraine. If it was only Ukraine, than the game would be different. But with US, Russia have to revive its industry, have to modernize and rearm their armed forces, have to become self sufficient in food, energy and strategical economy branches. Many of you forget, that in 1998 Russia was broken, than they fight a war in Chechnya. Also in that time China, India, Brazil and South Africa was not such economy powers as they are now. This is a process, that they become powerful enough to throw the monopole position of US Dollar. Russia doesn't work alone in this strategy, but with allies. Russia now have to wait with war, same as China have to care, that they will not be to early trapped in war with US in eastern Chinese sea.

http://in.rbth.com/news/2014/07/04/brics_planning_to_sign_documents_on_development_bank_currency_reserve_po_36479.html

BRICS meeting in Brazil in this month and signing some very important documents will have very important long lasting consequences, which will make global shifts of centers of power. That is why US want to catch Russia in war in Russia, to save their Dollar and economy, to prevent the inevitable fall of US empire. Russian army have to stay out of Ukraine, but Russia have to support Novorussian forces and Putin will have free hands for it after BRICS meeting in Brazil.

Firebird wrote:Some suspicious comments floating around in the Russian and Western press.
If Putin HAS got it wrong or is getting it wrong, personally I think it should be the end of his office.

Attempting soft power in this situation just looks moronic.

I disagree man.. with all the respect. Yes Putin failed but that was for not helping Yakunovych to stay in
power. Now is too late for removing Poroshenko from power ,which is exactly what Russia will be FORCED by the west to do if they invade. any intervention.Whatever actions Russia take on Ukraine ,they need to think in long term future. What will be the consequences of Russia invading in the long term. and what will be the goals of Russia for invading.

Your goal is to save civilians lives right?

But look what will happen if Russia invade. After Russia secure Donetsk and Lugansk and killing about 10,000 ukraine soldiers more cities will rebel and ask Russia for help. The Euromaidans in retaliation will attack anyone friendly to Russia in all Ukraine cities. and you will see more Odessa Massacres but this time across all ukraine. This will force Russia to invade Kiev in a total war to remove Poroshenko ,with Lots more Ukraine soldiers killed and Russian soldiers killed because civilians with attack Russian soldiers and Russia will experience an attrition war in other cities ,something similar to US invasion in IRAQ. No matter how Russian army is armed , it will end creating much more violence that the ones already exist. And the worse thing of all is that Russia gain will only be a few cities ,while losing in politics most of Ukraine.  It will be the same of IRAQ.. that US won all the battles but lost in politics where it more matters. Because the leaders in Kiev will be more than ever Anti-Russia.. and with the help of the western media they will convince everyone that Russia is stealing their lands.

IF Russia in the other hand ,do things undercover just to allow the Rebels to Hold for many months,and provoking an attrition war on Kiev , their economy will collapse. And it will not be so clear the blame i nRussia for the violence.

All Russia needs to do is to try to get UN or EU monitors for the protections of civilians in eastern ukraine , call for evacuation of civilians form war zones ,and try to convince the rebels to drop their arms and flee to Russia IF they feel no longer they can hold the kiev army. That way the insurrection and rebellion is not defeated and could continue at any other time. The most important thing to remember is that Ukraine economy will collapse..even CHina financial economist expert have said it. and the real revolution will start in that time and that time will be in all Ukrainian cities.. And that it will be much better that Russia is not inside Ukraine with tanks when the Ukraine economy collapse so Russia
is not blamed for it.

If Russia shows ukrainians that they are not interested in stealing lands as Kiev media says ,and only wants the violence to end and that they ready to work with any side .The euromaidans the majority will see for the first time ,that Russia is not their enemy and they were deceived .that perhaps they were Wrong about Russia and might be worth to give a try ,to return under Russia trade orbit ,if they notice the EU association was a very bad idea and that they were all fooled and deceived .

The only way i consider Russia to invade is if they have no other choice and a major genocide of hundreds of civilians killed everyday ,including women and children. This is why i think the most important action for now ,for Russia is to have lots of credible journalist inside ukraine covering the war and any cost. Reporting exactly what happens ,for Russia to know what decision to make but also to keep a big international pressure on kiev to stop the war and their soldiers morale very low. Even Lukashenko the backstabber is now saying Kiev need to stop the war in eastern ukraine that is costing too much lives of innocents. and this is big. the public opinion do matters. Because the last thing Ukraine wants is to be isolated from the EU ,which are pressuring kiev to end the war..

Vann7 wrote:

Putin now only have 3 real options..
1)try to push with EU real cease fire monitored by 30 OSCE monitors on the ground ,also allowing media to film and the evacuation of all civilians from the combat zones who wants to leave and or have no water or food,and propose that he will try to convince the rebels to drop their weapons..offering them to work and live in Russia..

2)To send 6,000 special forces undercover armed to the teeth and help push back the kiev forces outside Novorossiya. 3,000 special forces to Donetsk and 3000 to Lugansk. Armed with Kornets-D , Igla-S with 152mm artillery and lazer precision munition. That will truly hurt . i dont think Ukraine have a chance to win against such weapons. it will be a field day for Donetsk forces in combination with the weapons they already have.

3) Invade and stop the war ,regardless of consequences . If they invade ,i really hope Putin have a FUCKING Clue
that NATO goals is an economic war and that facilities like Sochi could be potential targets also nuclear reactors in Russia. But also Crimea too could be a target,specially their best warships . but also Rostov and ST petersburg too. And that NATO could have supply Kiev with long range Ballistic and cruise missiles to attack Russia. At the moment Wiki says Ukraine have 90 OTR-21 Tochka missiles ,they could be dangerous for Russia.. if for example their defenses fail.

It will probably be the 4th option. Putin continues begging Obama and Porishenko to stop the bombing, but they pay no attention.

Donbass collapses - 2 million are displaced into Russia

Then Obama (supported by Merkel) threatens increased sanctions unless Crimea is evacuated. Poroshenko has already said he will attack Crimea

Russian elite (wealthy investors, oligarchs, bankers etc) argue that letting Poroshenko take Crimea is not a bad option if it means saving Russia's economy

Get real.

Crimea is staying. Poroshenko is yapping to the masses, he has no teeth whatsoever.

TR1 wrote:Get real.

Crimea is staying. Poroshenko is yapping to the masses, he has no teeth whatsoever.

He has now. He has Obama and Merkel behind him, and NATO warships in the Black Sea. But the greatest weapon is a frightened Russian elite

The panickers have arisen   

Porky will end up on the grill courtesy of his own hungry people, and yet some people are saying that he's gonna be retaking the Crimea. Gold.

hehehhehehehe rooting all over   

TR1 wrote:Get real.

Crimea is staying. Poroshenko is yapping to the masses, he has no teeth whatsoever.

Territorial claims shift to here and there nowdays. It's about political value than anything else !

War isn't allways necessary to achieve that. If they can force Putin/Kremlin to rethink their decision, they will eventualy be able to reclaim it. After all that issue is not 100% done yet.

flamming_python wrote:The panickers have arisen   

Porky will end up on the grill courtesy of his own hungry people, and yet some people are saying that he's gonna be retaking the Crimea. Gold.

The massacre in Odessa was a war crime and an act of war

The correct response to that is not to support Poroshenko's election (unless you have the mentality of a slave)

Soon Porky will starve the populations of Lugansk and Donetsk

Starlight wrote:

flamming_python wrote:The panickers have arisen   

Porky will end up on the grill courtesy of his own hungry people, and yet some people are saying that he's gonna be retaking the Crimea. Gold.

The massacre in Odessa was a war crime and an act of war

The correct response to that is not to support Poroshenko's election (unless you have the mentality of a slave)

Soon Porky will starve the populations of Lugansk and Donetsk

The Ukrainian army will be just as starved with Poroshenko's rations of moldy bread.