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About sanctions and economic interdependence between Russia & West (Germany) from Croatian forum:
http://www.forum.hr/showpost.php?p=49259002&postcount=4957
Since last week , Russia main theme of world media for events in Ukraine , I would write something related to the sanctions that the West could impose , and that according to some, could bring down the economy of the Russian Federation .
The facts of saying that the economy of the Russian Federation is extremely dependent on exports of primary energy , particularly crude oil ( with their associated refinery capacity - petroleum products ) and natural gas that make up 67.5 % of merchandise exports and 17.5 % of GDP. So , it is not dependent to the extent that they remained dependent export of primary energy ( Saudi Arabia , Iran , Kuwait , Iraq , UAE etc. . ) But is dependent to the same extent as the one Germany depends on exports of machinery , automobiles and chemical products ( 61 % of merchandise exports and 25.5 % of GDP) . Also not to be forgotten that Russia meets about 17 % of world demand for natural gas , 11 % crude oil and 11 % for petroleum products . Given the narrow global oil and gas market is written makes a global factor . So Russia and the world are dependent on Russian oil and gas exports .
Another important fact says that the Russian Federation due to the exports become financially independent country . In translation , Russia , that is, its economy is not financially dependent on the goodwill of the West or the East to finance its consumption and investment . Appearance speaking Russian Federation is not in the role of importer long as it contains the USA , UK , France or Croatia , but exporters long as China , Germany , and until yesterday , and Japan . Thus, the Russian Federation of the 1999th to 2013th in other states cumulatively exported debt by approximately 900 billion USD . Said reservoir makes it economically independent country and that is why the West is so hurt Russia's foreign and domestic policy . In translation , the West can not Russia nothing in her backyard as Russia can not do anything the West ( U.S. ) globally. This makes Russia a regional superpower , the United States and the global superpower .
I see that some people chant about sankacijama West to export Russian oil and gas . It is simply impossible because contracts are signed , and they signed most of the amounts that the existing infrastructure can support . In translation , the EU can not tell you how tomorrow will no longer import oil and gas from Russia than from Libya and Qatar , primarily because there is no infrastructure for such a thing , and secondly excess production capacity in these exporters . Likewise , Russia can not say the same about the EU. So , in that sense, the cards are stacked and the only thing we both can work through the construction of new infrastructure to provide new suppliers or buyers . We see that Russia is turning to Asia, Europe and Africa , the Middle East and America. But it takes time . In this sense, the Russian foreign exchange revenues from sales of oil and gas are secured . On the other hand , Russia may impose sanctions to say German or French export of chemical products , machinery and cars as an alternative to having it .
Second, the collapse in crude oil prices and natural gas prices on commodity exchanges also not realistic for this reason that the discrepancy between supply and demand is minimal, and this is confirmed by the prices on the world market . It is simply not there is excess production capacity as there is for example in the global manufacturing industry . Even if by some chance there as the largest OPEC producer on such proposals would hardly have responded positively , as the economies of its member states even more dependent on high cost of primary energy than the Russian economy . Another no less important reason is that , much of today's production of crude oil and natural gas from nekonvecionalnih source is cost effective at today's high prices, in the case of falling prices that production would become unprofitable .
The fact is , the economic , and thus political power of the West is declining . Germany is better to think twice about which direction they want to develop their economic relations with Russia . Even more so exports to the Russian Federation is almost 40 billion EUR ( EU approximately U.S. $ 123 billion - almost 90 % of their export manufacturing industry ) . And that's part of the pie that its direct competitive China , Korea , Japan and Taiwan are eager to take . Once you lose a customer it is very difficult to restore . Therefore, it is unlikely that Germany would support any sanctions that would accrue deepening crisis with Russia .
Russia is economically independent country and this fact Western elites hurts. In translation, in much of Spain, Portugal and Croatia to the West appears some undesirable power fot the West of the country economically can bring down on his knees, as long as Russia can not. To illustrate just one example, the Russian government gross debt is 190 billion or 10% of GDP, of which foreign creditors hold approximately 30% of the debt, or 3% of GDP. On the other side of the German national debt is approximately 80%, the U.S. and Britain 90%, France 95%, and the Italian 135% of GDP. For example, the national debt Croatian (state guarantees included) amounted to 82% of GDP, of which foreign creditors hold 42% of the debt.
From this position of Russia's foreign policy stems Vladimir Putin. The biggest losers in this whole story without a doubt themselves Ukrainians who unknowingly agree to it, that the West (mainly the U.S.) over their backs weighs geopolitical power against the Russian Federation. Paid by consumers of petroleum products due to instability as rising price of crude oil on the market. That means even more USD and EUR for the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, a decline in the purchasing power of average people in the importing country. Now, the "experts" from Fitch us to say that the current dnaas less risky USD and EUR borrow Italy and Croatia than Russia.
http://www.forum.hr/showpost.php?p=49259002&postcount=4957
asking the Russian president to send in troops and now AGAIN going back on his own decisions; scarcely a few weeks after they were made. And just like the other times, ultimately he can only blame himself.
