GarryB wrote:Russia thinks not like you, GarryB. To wait to the Tu-PAK-DA to restart the productionof strategic bombers means 10 years of delay in serial production, and Russia wants not to wait.
First flight for Tu-160M2 is 2018 but serial production wont start till about 2023.
First PAK DA design is supposed to be flight tested in 2019 but serial production wont start until 2025.
5 years ago there was no plan to restart production of the Tu-160... ideas perhaps, but no concrete decision... they could just as easily have decided to just make supersonic PAK DA instead of making Tu-160M2 and then PAK DA if it was supersonic... the delay would be less than 5 years because making a factory able to build precision stealth structures is not cheap or simple... but you are going to need it whether you are building Tu-160M2s or PAK DAs.
This is not realistict. Where come from this data? It must be from very old projections. Not updated. Do you have some link?
When the restart of the production of the Tu-160 was approved the timeline for the Tu-PAK-DA was increased, like we can see in this article:
n April 2015, Russian Defense Minister Gen. Sergei Shoigu announced the decision to resume the production of Tu-160 in a modernized version - the Tu-160M2 - and move to the finalization of a new generation bomber PAK DA at a later date.
By the end of 2016, the upgrade of the Tu-160M2 (NATO reporting name: Blackjack) supersonic, variable-sweep strategic bomber fleet to Tu-160M2 standard is ahead of schedule. The technical documentation is expected to be fully digitized this month. The maiden flight is shifted from 2019 to 2018 with the tests complete in 2021. Then, the Kazan Aircraft Plant will start serial production. The modernization will increase the aircraft’s life span for another 30 years. The Russian military plans to have 50 aircraft upgraded to the M2 standard.
Russia is working on the PAK DA («prospective aviation complex for long-range aviation») new generation strategic bomber. The development is being delayed with the first unit to appear between 2020 and 2025.
Actually, the Tu-160M2 is almost a new plane. The only thing left unchanged is the airframe.
For the Tu-160 the design phase will be significantly shorter, the testing phase will be significantly shorter and the preparation for the serial production phase will be significantly shorter. The process of design, test and launch of serial production of a variant, is not like the process for a completely new aircraft. This is the reality. The Tu-160 is now ahead of the schedule after doing the entire digitalization of the documents, the most arduous part of the process. The contruction of the first prototype is to begin fast this year, and like the first fly has been moved one year earlier surely the begin of the serial production can be moved also to 2020.
For the Tu-PAK-DA, the last reports are talking about the first fly (between 2020 and 2025) which means a difference until 7 years for the first fly. In this case Russia has not incentive or interest in to complete the process in the lower possible timeline. Their interest is more in to complete an advanced design for the next 50 years. Despite it, I hope the first fly to be earlier than 2025, because if the difference between the first fly reachs 7 years, the difference in the begin of the serial production can be bigger than 10 years.
I think it would be possible for the Tu-PAK-DA to have the first unit ready around 2025 (it would mean to be in the situation of the Su-PAK-FA in 2015, and remember that today there is not still serial production of the Su-PAK-FA). For it the first fly of the Tu-PAK-DA should be around 2022 and the serial production would not begin befor 2028-2030. But even this would mean an ambitious timeline for the Tu-PAK-DA.
Last edited by eehnie on Mon Feb 20, 2017 12:57 pm; edited 2 times in total