Russia and Turkey

LMFS wrote:
Not saying this is good for SAA, but what is Turkey expected to do with the thousands of jihadists they have sponsored, if they are not eliminated in Syria? They have been radicalised and learned jihad as a way of life so they are more of a liability than an asset after the war, both Turkey and Syria would need to neutralize them in some way. And besides making things difficult for SAA will give Turkey leverage in the political settlement of the war so better to mobilize forces now than wait for AQ and the rest of the most hardcore crazies to be eliminated. The jihadists themselves know it is now or never so they will join forces regardless...

These FSA are government contractors of the Turkish state. Anything they do makes Turkey liable for their actions. If they start shooting at Russian soldiers, it is war. If Turkey wanted to get rid of the liability they could fire them and send them back to the refugee camps from which they came. They want to wage war on us without carrying their flag.

Kinda, sorta?

In end, turkey will state "it was their choice" and that is it. I doubt turkey will hold liability over the FSA in the end.

Vladimir79 wrote:These FSA are government contractors of the Turkish state.  Anything they do makes Turkey liable for their actions.  If they start shooting at Russian soldiers, it is war.  If Turkey wanted to get rid of the liability they could fire them and send them back to the refugee camps from which they came.  They want to wage war on us without carrying their flag.      

Not quite agree they can simply fire them, they can be a real pain. They need to be discouraged progressively both through military attrition, drying of their funding and loss of political weight. The most radical ones need to be eliminated pure and simple.

The problem with nationalist nutcases like Erdogan is that they tend to overplay their hand obsessively because of their unholy levels of entitlement. After tolerating years of Turkish protection to the terrorists and even constant attacks to Hmeymim they would be very wrong if they engage Russian forces on the ground. Turkey is not in a state to impose conditions to Russia, much less through violence, they will only lose in the long run.

I guess Turkey's high command meeting Russian high command to work out the Idlib campaign not too long ago flies by over people's head....

The sky is falling, look at all these news...we're at it again..Turks bad, we good.....

Ohh well, can't be helped.

We can move all of the SAMs we want, it isn't going to change the balance of power. If we shoot down an American aircraft you can expect every SAM in Syria to be destroyed in response. If we escalate it past that you are talking about WWIII. With someone as unhinged as Trump he is not the guy I want to play a game of nuclear chicken with.

Iran has had every reason and opportunity to attack the Americans in Iraq... why haven't they done it yet? The IRIAF and their rusted F-14/F-5s are no match for the USAF, they know it despite what propaganda they play.

Perhaps that is the answer... the Cuban missile crisis... clearly the US does not respect anything but brute force... Offer to gift Iran some serious weapons to help them defend their border with US and terrorist held Syria... a couple of thousand T-72s and let them pay the contracts to upgrade to T-72SM3 level or better, plus a donation of upgraded Su-27 aircraft... Su-27SM, and a production licence for R-77 missiles... things they would find useful against US and Israeli attacks (the aircraft... not the tanks of course). And of course licence production for late model T-72s or perhaps T-90s, and Su-30SM aircraft...

It would also be a case of finding how the US forces are supplied in occupied Syrian territory and cutting them off...

Obviously there is little in economic terms the Russians can do, but make a point of calling it an illegal occupation in the same way they talk about the Crimea as being annexed by Russia.

I don't believe the chemical issue will even come up, we are not stupid enough to use them and the US doesn't have a decent enough justification to intervene.

Douma and the Skripals show that anything will do when they want to intervene...

First we have to kick the Turks out, then figure out how to get the Americans out.

I think the Americans are the bigger problem... they hold the money making areas... Turkey is just afraid of 3.5 million civilians moving over the border to add to the huge number already there... which is perfectly understandable.

The Americans on the other hand are just being of the lowest order. They have to be dealt with eventually and the longer you leave it the more entrenched they will become... like bloody cockroaches... except cockroaches are cute... have you seen that movie "Joes' Apartment"?

It is far too early to be talking about reconstruction.

It has already started...

BTW may I ask about reason for grudge against Turkey?

Turkey is not a natural ally of Russia...

But then neither is Germany or Japan, but they can still work with Russia and do good things... things that benefit both sides.

Putn is well aware of that and is in Syria not because of Assad.

Don't hear that enough... Russia is not in Syria to protect Assad... Russia is there to keep a stable government in power to benefit the Syrian people... it does not matter whether the leader is Assad or someone else to Russia, but having a stable government in power and in control is the difference between Syria now and Libya now. No matter how pure of heart of the justification for opposition, when there are 1,000 different anti Assad factions, then removing Assad and letting them try to sort things out is anarchy and chaos and not in the interests of Syrian people (no matter how they feel about Assad).

Turkey and the US either don't understand or more likely simply don't give a shit about the Syrian people.

Turkey however will give a shit because if there is chaos on its border then the PKK could make something of it that is not in Turkeys future interests.

His rhetoric is already in violation of the Astana agreement, I see why the Americans don't trust him either as he will stab you in the back at a moments notice.

He is totally predictable... he doesn't want 3.5 million more refugees in Turkey... especially the assholes in Idlib... I mean this place has been receiving the total ISIS cowards running away from other occupied Syrian cities and their families... considering the people going there I would suggest the civilians living there either can put up with real scum or are family members of the scum of Syria and the region... not to mention the terrorists hiding amongst them...

Because the US will respond and they will hit them ten times harder. Iran is also dependent on pipelines, it would be nothing for the US to take those out. Now that all of the Western companies have pulled out there is nothing for them to lose.

I read an article by an American about how Iran wouldn't close off the Persian gulf to traffic because it would hurt them too... if the US attacked their oil industry, either directly or by demanding everyone stop buying it (they have tried the latter but not successfully), then they would have nothing to lose by closing off the gulf to shipping...

The state holding it back has always been worrying about relations with Turkey. No one really cares about relations with Turkey anymore and as they crumble it opens the door for the Kurds.

Except that the states that want a kurdish state are the US and Israel... Turkey doesn't want it, nor does Iraq, or Iran, or Syria, because they all lose land and valuable resources.

Attempts to carve out a Kurdistan would result in Iran and Iraq and Syria and Turkey likely motivated to use land forces to prevent it.

Turkey is sending 20,000 of its proxy army terrorists from Afrin and Euphrates Shield to fight Assad.

Hope Assad has a lot of ammo... better to kill them on the field of battle than negotiate with them and have them as part of the new government of Syria...

If only they could separate the civilians and just take on the terrorists... of course they could just do what America does and state any human beings left in Idlib when we start our attack will be considered terrorist and therefore fair game... they might as well because the western media is going to have trouble keeping up with all the Schools and Hospitals and Churches being destroyed by Assad and the Russians...

ATLASCUB wrote:I guess Turkey's high command meeting Russian high command to work out the Idlib campaign not too long ago flies by over people's head....

The sky is falling, look at all these news...we're at it again..Turks bad, we good.....

Ohh well, can't be helped.

I guess them meeting and not coming to an agreement on calling Al-Nusra a terrorist group flies over your head.

https://ahvalnews.com/idlib/turkey-and-russia-could-be-collision-course-over-idlib-russian-daily

Turkey ordering 20,000 Al-Nusra associated terrorists into Idlib must make Erdogan the best friend of Russia?

LMFS wrote:
Not quite agree they can simply fire them, they can be a real pain. They need to be discouraged progressively both through military attrition, drying of their funding and loss of political weight. The most radical ones need to be eliminated pure and simple.

The problem with nationalist nutcases like Erdogan is that they tend to overplay their hand obsessively because of their unholy levels of entitlement. After tolerating years of Turkish protection to the terrorists and even constant attacks to Hmeymim they would be very wrong if they engage Russian forces on the ground. Turkey is not in a state to impose conditions to Russia, much less through violence, they will only lose in the long run.

They recruited them out of their refugee camps, they can send them back there. They have promised their families death benefits if martyred just like Al-Queda, it is a terrorist group supported by the Turkish government. Erdogan refuses to list Al-Nusra as a radical group and he is going to protect them with another 20,000 terrorists. As we see by his deployments they will be backed up with artillery and MLRS systems. If he is going that far we can expect air support will be coming.

Vladimir79 wrote:

ATLASCUB wrote:I guess Turkey's high command meeting Russian high command to work out the Idlib campaign not too long ago flies by over people's head....

The sky is falling, look at all these news...we're at it again..Turks bad, we good.....

Ohh well, can't be helped.

I guess them meeting and not coming to an agreement on calling Al-Nusra a terrorist group flies over your head.

https://ahvalnews.com/idlib/turkey-and-russia-could-be-collision-course-over-idlib-russian-daily

Turkey ordering 20,000 Al-Nusra associated terrorists into Idlib must make Erdogan the best friend of Russia?  

First, whether they call that group a terrorist org or not doesn't really matter as it regards to backdeals and non-public agreements. To help illustrate for those that need visual or historical images the quickest example being Turkey's operation into Afrin which was given Russia's blessing. Very successful OP in kicking the crazy commies (YPG/PKK) out of the area after reneging and pouting about handing the area to Assad (PKK preferred it fell into Turkish hands than to Assad in a negotiated deal - despite Russian pleas..... quiet convenient for Americans - puppetry at its best)...... not like Russia calls them terrorist....YET.

But anyway here: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-turkey/turkey-designates-syrias-tahrir-al-sham-as-terrorist-group-idUSKCN1LG1XM

Turkey designates Syria's Tahrir al-Sham as terrorist group

ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Turkey has designated the insurgent group Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organization, according to a presidential decision published on Friday, as Damascus prepares for a military assault in northwest Syria where the group holds sway.

You have shown to be completely imbalanced and biased towards the subject to put it lightly. Don't dig harder, instead get a breath of fresh air and recalibrate your thought process.

GarryB wrote:I think the Americans are the bigger problem... they hold the money making areas... Turkey is just afraid of 3.5 million civilians moving over the border to add to the huge number already there... which is perfectly understandable.

The reason Turkey invaded Syria in the first place was to set up "safe zones" for refugees so they would stop coming to Turkey. If there is a refugee crisis they can send them there as they have been doing. It is their job to control their own border, not interfere in Russian operations under the authority of the Syrian government.

ATLASCUB wrote:

First, whether they call that group a terrorist org or not doesn't really matter as it regards to backdeals and non-public agreements.

Of course it matters as it designates the official position of your government and determining what side of the fight you are actually on.  Turkey promised to eliminate al-Sham but has done nothing about it.  We deem Al-Nusra a terrorist organisation and will destroy it.  Erdogan not only provides aid and comfort to these terrorists but supplies them arms which makes him a state sponsor of terrorism.   If he opens fire on Russians to protect them that makes him an enemy of the Russian state.      

You have shown to be completely imbalanced and biased towards the subject to put it lightly. Don't dig harder, instead get a breath of fresh air and recalibrate your thought process.

I don't recall asking for your opinion about my thought process.    He promised to evacuate his Al-Nusra terrorists but has moved more of them to Idlib.  He promised to destroy al-Sham and has done nothing and instead threatens Syrian and Russian forces.  He is no friend to us.

Exclusive - Turkey boosts arms to Syrian rebels as Idlib attack looms - rebel sources
Suleiman Al-Khalidi
SEPTEMBER 12, 2018

AMMAN (Reuters) - Turkey has stepped up arms supplies to Syrian rebels to help them stave off an expected offensive by the Syrian army and its Russian and Iran-backed allies in the northwest near the Turkish frontier, rebel sources told Reuters. Senior rebel officials said Turkey had sent more military aid to rebels in and around the Idlib region since a summit meeting with Iran and Russia last week failed to agree a deal to avert a government offensive into the area. Turkey, which is already hosting 3.5 million Syrian refugees, is warning against such an attack, fearing it could force more Syrians over the border. President Tayyip Erdogan has warned of a humanitarian disaster and security risks for Turkey.

“They pledged complete Turkish military support for a long, protracted battle,” a senior FSA commander who was privy to talks in recent days with senior Turkish officials said, requesting anonymity as he was not authorised to speak publicly. The weapons, which have entered Syria in large quantities in recent days, include ammunition and GRAD rockets.

“These arms supplies and munitions will allow the battle to extend and ensure our supplies are not drained in a war of attrition,” the commander added.

A second rebel commander said: “They are getting new shipments of munitions — they don’t need more than munitions.”

“The Turks are making sure they have enough munitions that keep them going for a long while,” he added.

Turkish officials could not immediately be reached for comment.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mideast-crisis-syria-rebels-exclusive/exclusive-turkey-boosts-arms-to-syrian-rebels-as-idlib-attack-looms-rebel-sources-idUKKCN1LS225

Vladimir79 wrote:

I don't recall asking for your opinion about my thought process.    He promised to evacuate his Al-Nusra terrorists but has moved more of them to Idlib.  He promised to destroy al-Sham and has done nothing and instead threatens Syrian and Russian forces.  He is no friend to us.

I felt like giving it anyway.....kinda obvious?

He didn't promise anything. The Turkish intelligence services tried to work it out (bound to fail anyway), even weeding out noncompliant leaders in targeted assassinations but it wasn't enough to wrestle them out of the Saudi/American grip. Thus; from Turkey's POV what should be the best course of action if you have a massive jihadi problem at your border?

Pretty simple... those that you can buy and semi-guarantee that they will do as they're told....those stay within your thumb to give you leverage in the conflict resolution and a seat at the table - specially to keep a salient open to push at the Kurds and be a thorn to American designs. Simple enough. Those that can not be made puppets, or are too volatile and can't be trusted (varying degree to this) should be supported with token support so that they can meet Allah in high heaven - mainly Al-Nusra.

The last thing Turkey needs is an exodus of these jihadi militants - the hardcore that don't reconcile - storming Turkish borders to settle and eventually cause trouble (for foreign enemy interest) because Turkey failed to provide token military supplies, and words of encouragement: "I have your back", "animal Assad", "don't you dare" - the circus act of meaningless words...... all the while stabbing them in the back in Russia and knowing their plight will ultimately result is death and failure. But the Circus must put up a great act, so that plausible deniability can be considered to exist not just by words, but by "deeds". And in that regard, they're doing a fine job.

What is irresponsible for Turkish interests, is to not engage in this ploy and put the life of Turkish citizens and the stability of the nation at even more risk (than now) due to a massive flood of hardcore jihadi's screaming "backstabbing" - and that becoming the narrative of the fall of Idlib. The more of them that eagerly march with false confidence to meet Allah via Russian bombing, and Assad's infantry, the better for Turkish interest. For that is the guaranteed result of this coming offensive, with or without Turkish token "support". When these clowns get a good and sound beating, those that are willing to come to their senses -- due to the fear of death, lack of morale and abject defeat -- can then turn to Turkey so that they handle the process as a mediator on their behalf. A good weeding out scheme.... reminds me of my lawn.

The circus act will continue and performances from every place in the planet will scream Turkey-Russia schism, Turkey-Russia conflict, "Astana is dead" (Reuters) etc...  Ohh how much would the real enemies of Russia like that very much? It wasn't long ago they were assassinating Russian ambassadors in cold day light....or threatening hell over the S-400 deal (still are)...

Now that's the obvious part...

I'm however always amused at the idea that having the Turkish state destabilized is in the interest of Russia, since they're an "enemy" (or no friend - which for that matter Russia's only true friend is Belarus but it's a waste to argue stupid). This coming from obviously those who profess to have Russian interests at heart - or so they claim. This can't be further from the truth. Russia's interest lie in the stability of its near abroad so that trade between it, and the nations surrounding it can flourish, so that security through peace can be kept, and so that main rivals can be kept at bay. This is common sense, not some foreign philosophy. The perfect example being Turkey joining the stupid ploy to set its backyard on fire and catching fire itself. What's Russia's role, the firefighter - put out the fire. The last thing Russia needs is another, much bigger fire at Russia's "border". But boy would the U.S love that very much, so would the Greeks, Saudi's and Israeli's.....

Turkish stream, that nuclear plant, all the other investments, and annual trade....billions - poof gone!..security? what security?... but "Constantinople"...The typing of bullshit and stupidity should have its limits wouldn't you think?

I could go on and nit pick every single nonsense that's written here but obviously it wastes my time further than the one allocated to my amusement.

Isos wrote:This is a desperate move to make the work more difficult for SAA and russia but it won't help them win. Actually russia will bomb more and make more dammage to their civilians.

Turks don't give a fuck about them. Russia and SAA tried to discuss and let them an escape solution. If they didn't send troops or tried to make  a no fly zone now they won't go in after.

Or if turks are so protective with them, take them in turkey.

This is a collective suicide. Really sad for civilians there who just want peace.

I just find it funny having the Turkish members come here saying I am unhinged over the Turkish response.  Then Erdogan goes behind our back and moves 20k terrorists into the region and rearms the ones already there.  Then they make the 12 "observation posts" into Army bases and threaten that if they come under fire they will attack us.  

Yeah, we will make it a no-fly zone and if Turkey thinks their F-16s are going anywhere near Idlib they should think twice.

Not a Turkish member - but when nonsense is shown for what it's that's the usual fallback. I'm actually from an old forgotten ally in the Caribbean. I'll leave it at that.

Well I think Erdogan needs to rethink his actions... Extra terrorists in Idlib wont stop a Syrian Army attack... it will just make them more pissed off when they get to the Turkish border... and dare I say it, make things rather harder for the civilians in the area too.

Pushing terrorists into Idlib makes it a more desirable target... it makes more sense to kill 30,000 terrorists than the 10,000 alleged to be there previously... of course these numbers are bullshit, but you understand what I am saying...

Perhaps Turkey knows the terrorists are going to fake a chem attack and the west will attack and that when it is blunted the west will either have to escalate with ground forces or declare victory... either way it is not going to stop a Syrian attack on Idlib, or it might delay it a little.

Maybe the issue is there are lots of western assets there that need to be pulled out before an attack takes place and they are playing for time...

Who knows.

Perhaps Russia should move in UCAVs and just do what the US has been doing in Yemen and Pakistan and many other places and just attack armed men 24/7 in Idlib for the next 10 years... will be interesting to see how many schools and churches and hospitals and school buses they will hit...

ATLASCUB wrote:

He didn't promise anything. The Turkish intelligence services tried to work it out (bound to fail anyway), even weeding out noncompliant leaders in targeted assassinations but it wasn't enough to wrestle them out of the Saudi/American grip. Thus; from Turkey's POV what should be the best course of action if you have a massive jihadi problem at your border?

Pretty simple... those that you can buy and semi-guarantee that they will do as they're told....those stay within your thumb to give you leverage in the conflict resolution and a seat at the table - specially to keep a salient open to push at the Kurds and be a thorn to American designs. Simple enough. Those that can not be made puppets, or are too volatile and can't be trusted (varying degree to this) should be supported with token support so that they can meet Allah in high heaven - mainly Al-Nusra.

The last thing Turkey needs is an exodus of these jihadi militants - the hardcore that don't reconcile - storming Turkish borders to settle and eventually cause trouble (for foreign enemy interest) because Turkey failed to provide token military supplies, and words of encouragement: "I have your back", "animal Assad", "don't you dare" - the circus act of meaningless words...... all the while stabbing them in the back in Russia and knowing their plight will ultimately result is death and failure. But the Circus must put up a great act, so that plausible deniability can be considered to exist not just by words, but by "deeds". And in that regard, they're doing a fine job.

What is irresponsible for Turkish interests, is to not engage in this ploy and put the life of Turkish citizens and the stability of the nation at even more risk (than now) due to a massive flood of hardcore jihadi's screaming "backstabbing" - and that becoming the narrative of the fall of Idlib. The more of them that eagerly march with false confidence to meet Allah via Russian bombing, and Assad's infantry, the better for Turkish interest. For that is the guaranteed result of this coming offensive, with or without Turkish token "support". When these clowns get a good and sound beating, those that are willing to come to their senses -- due to the fear of death, lack of morale and abject defeat -- can then turn to Turkey so that they handle the process as a mediator on their behalf. A good weeding out scheme.... reminds me of my lawn.

The circus act will continue and performances from every place in the planet will scream Turkey-Russia schism, Turkey-Russia conflict, "Astana is dead" (Reuters) etc...  Ohh how much would the real enemies of Russia like that very much? It wasn't long ago they were assassinating Russian ambassadors in cold day light....or threatening hell over the S-400 deal (still are)...

Now that's the obvious part...

The flaw in your logic is that you don't look at it from the Turkish perspective. The primary and overriding issue for them is the Kurds, well before worrying about Assad or even a refugee crisis. The primary reason for them to hold Idlib is to cut off the Kurds from the Mediterranean. As Erdogan calls it the "terror corridor" must be pacified. It is the reason he invaded Afrin and conducted Euphrates Shield. Using them as a place to hold refugees is secondary to that.

Half of these jihadi militants are paid and armed by the Turkish government. Erdogan was tasked with wiping out the other half that isn't and he didn't do it. He has full control over his borders and can reject anyone he doesn't want, it is not as if they could get very far without his blessing. Half of them report to the TSK. If they went ape in Turkey you would see how serious he would get about wiping them out.

I'm however always amused at the idea that having the Turkish state destabilized is in the interest of Russia, since they're an "enemy" (or no friend - which for that matter Russia's only true friend is Belarus but it's a waste to argue stupid). This coming from obviously those who profess to have Russian interests at heart - or so they claim. This can't be further from the truth. Russia's interest lie in the stability of its near abroad so that trade between it, and the nations surrounding it can flourish, so that security through peace can be kept, and so that main rivals can be kept at bay. This is common sense, not some foreign philosophy. The perfect example being Turkey joining the stupid ploy to set its backyard on fire and catching fire itself. What's Russia's role, the firefighter - put out the fire. The last thing Russia needs is another, much bigger fire at Russia's "border". But boy would the U.S love that very much, so would the Greeks, Saudi's and Israeli's.....

Turkish stream, that nuclear plant, all the other investments, and annual trade....billions - poof gone!..security? what security?... but "Constantinople"...The typing of bullshit and stupidity should have its limits wouldn't you think?

I could go on and nit pick every single nonsense that's written here but obviously it wastes my time further than the one allocated to my amusement.

Look at it from the Russian perspective. Our longstanding strategic goals are to make the Black Sea a Russian sea and to secure our transit through the Bosphorus at any time we desire under any circumstance including war with NATO. It cannot be at the whim of Turkish politics that blow in the wind every-time they have political instability. Erdogan is not going to last and we aren't going to invest anything to count on it. The only way is the partition of Turkey to secure our access.

You confuse business investments with politics. Turkey is not at our border, if they are set on fire is only good for us. What do we need from trade with Turkey that we can't get form China? They offer nothing and are just another market for oil and gas, that will be the case regardless if they are partitioned or not. They are stealing tourists that should be vacationing in Sochi, not in Anatolia. All of that money will be going back into the Russian economy. The collapse of Turkey gives Armenia breathing space and makes threats from Azerbaijan nullified. The NK issue can finally be settled, the Kurdish issue can finally be resolved, the Cyprus issue will end, the threats to Greece will be eliminated. The existence of Turkey is a cancer on the region, their demise will be a relief to all.

Isos wrote:Then the best way for turks to deny kurds access to sea is to let russian take everything west of Euphrate.

US will never go at war with russian while if turks start targeting kurds in syria they will destroy them.

The Turks only care about the Kurds because they know an independence movement would be the end of the Turkish state. It is their primary domestic and foreign policy issue.

The US will never go to war with Russia because they know they would be annihilated by nuclear fallout. If the Turks start targeting the Kurds in Syria what would the US really do? They targeted them in Afrin but the US allowed it because it was behind their conflict zone. I think before the Brunson fallout the US would have done anything to appease them, now that Erdogan has reneged on the deal I think Trump might not be so accommodating of Turkish advances but destroying the Turks at this stage... not yet. The entire situation in Idlib is strengthening Turkey relations with NATO because it is destroying Russo-Turkish relations.

Well you will never have Black sea for yourself. Stop dreaming.

What partition of Turkey are thinking about ? There are only kurds there who wants independance. And most of their future kurdistan is outside turkey, the one they are planing with US.

Turkey has a long history. Their people like turkey, they will never let a partition happen.

Bosphorus will still be occupied by Turks or by greece and nato.

We can have the Black Sea, by taking Crimea we have reduced Ukraine to nothing. The partition of Turkey will include the loss of Kurdistan and Istanbul. We will build a canal through it if Erdogan doesn't build it first and have unchallenged access to the Mediterranean. Turkey will exist but in a much reduced state to never threaten anyone again. There are 4 million Kurds in Istanbul living in abject poverty, it is the perfect sleeper army.

Russian fault. They are not stealing anything. Russian suck at promoting their own country. You needed a world cup to promote it.

Why do you think France is the capital of tourism? We hosted the World Cup but they won it. We must take lessons.