2022 Kazakhstan violent unrest

unrest in Kazakhstan

https://tass.com/world/1383891

By the time they finished the negotiations the Angara pad at Vostochny Cosmodrome will probably be complete anyway.

George1 wrote:unrest in Kazakhstan

https://tass.com/world/1383891

Protests over increased prices of gas.

I'm surprised no one done that here.

Apparently there are protests all over Europe so Kazakhstan is learning from best I suppose.

Russian analysts expect a Maidan coup in Kazakhstan.

I don't get it. Isn't Kazakhstan supposed to be a natural gas and oil producer?
The market at work I guess.

kvs wrote:Russian analysts expect a Maidan coup in Kazakhstan.

It won't happen.  If it does, it will be like Kyrgyzstan then.

Edit:

https://tass.com/world/1383989

So nothing will change. But I think the people have a right to protest over price hikes. Same here in Canada or elsewhere.

Hopefully government takes concerns at face value and try to get prices down.

I'm making this as I couldn't find any thread about it yet.

I'm seeing some worring things going on in Kazakhstan right now. There are major protests/rioting going on with the National Guard deployed. A government building has been set on fire also. Reportedly to do with fuel prices, but I'm not sure.

Hopefully not another CIA created situation on another country bordering Russia.
https://gpovanman.wordpress.com/2022/01/05/kazakhstan-petroleum-prices-and-protests/

https://twitter.com/vicktop55/status/1478453051967033344

https://www.instagram.com/p/CYWVyPtMn1S/?utm_medium=twitter

https://www.instagram.com/p/CYWVzqiMw_f/?utm_medium=twitter

miketheterrible wrote:

kvs wrote:Russian analysts expect a Maidan coup in Kazakhstan.

It won't happen.  If it does, it will be like Kyrgyzstan then.

Edit:

https://tass.com/world/1383989

So nothing will change. But I think the people have a right to protest over price hikes. Same here in Canada or elsewhere.

Hopefully government takes concerns at face value and try to get prices down.

These "gas protests" are outside the scope of such. Now the "protestors" are storming government buildings. This is
a Maidan operation using "discontent" over gas prices as cover/pretext. The a reaction of the government will be used
to justify a colour revolution. Kazakhstan has gone down the same road as Ukraine. The same cheesy nazionalism by
both the old regime and the NATzO sponsored insurgents.

PapaDragon wrote:

ALAMO wrote:That would be kinda interesting to watch, as the whole norther part of Kazachstan is inhabited by the Russians, and considers itself Russian. They don't speak Kazakh there, so we have lot's of similarities with the East of 404. And we are talking 4.5 out of 14 mln people who consider themself as Russkies.

Which opens up many amazing opportunities especially considering how Kazakhstan was doing everything it could to piss off the Russian population and attempt to forcefully assimilate them

They have been trying to push 404 style language laws for years and erase cyrillic alphabet (maybe even did, haven't been keeping up)

Russia must make sure that this third of the population and its settled territory breaks free of the lunatics in the south.
If it was good for Sudan, then it is good Kazakhstan. Let NATzO bleat about territorial integrity until the cows come home.

No more money should be wasted on Baikonur.

PapaDragon wrote:

ALAMO wrote:That would be kinda interesting to watch, as the whole norther part of Kazachstan is inhabited by the Russians, and considers itself Russian. They don't speak Kazakh there, so we have lot's of similarities with the East of 404. And we are talking 4.5 out of 14 mln people who consider themself as Russkies.

Which opens up many amazing opportunities especially considering how Kazakhstan was doing everything it could to piss off the Russian population and attempt to forcefully assimilate them

They have been trying to push 404 style language laws for years and erase cyrillic alphabet (maybe even did, haven't been keeping up)

The ruling regime there is another one that has been sitting on two chairs, like Lukashenko was earlier attempting to do before them and before that Yanukovich in the Ukraine.

Compromising with nationalism and refusing to do much to counteract these forces, even abating them to an extent. Rehabilitating Nazi collaborators, putting up statues to anti-Bolshevik leaders in Kazakhstan during the Russian Civil War... which is especially funny as these leaders are now called fighters for Kazakh independence but in fact just a decade earlier they were very much the Tsar's men putting down rebellions in Central Asia, while during the Civil War they were allied to Kolchak.
What else - switching the Kazakh alphabet to the Latin script, introducing new requirements for Kazakh language competence, joining the Turkic Union, declining Moscow's proposal to enact counter-sanctions against the West, allowing Western NGOs full-reign in Kazakhstan, meetings with European and American leaders about building ties, etc..

And now all these forces, from the nationalists, to the Western NGOs, to the pan-Turks, to the Islamists, to the pro-West liberals, to the Ukraine where the Kazakh opposition leaders are co-coordinating from, to the same Europe and America that the Kazakh leadership refused to distance themselves from -
ALL OF THEM, all these guys, are now attempting the topple the Kazakh govt. All instruments have been activated. A full-blown Maidan attempt is underway, accelerated by about x10. Or should I say Syria 2011, things seem to be going the same direction. Within just 2 days some protests about compressed natural gas prices for vehicles in the West of the country have escalated to militant assaults on law enforcement buildings, arson, shoot-outs with soldiers, hijacking of police vehicles, looting of shops, take-overs of administration buildings, mass beatings. The city of Aktobe in northern Kazakhstan has fallen to the Maidanists already, police there have surrendered - while the Soviet-era capital of Almaty looks to be next.

Here's a good telegram for keeping up with events for those who want it:
https://t.me/bbbreaking
And a rolling news feed:
https://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2022/01/05/14387053.shtml

They're both in Russian but you can translate the text using Google/Yandex.

As for assimilating the Russian-speaking population - I wouldn't go that far, Russian is still accepted as a language of inter-ethnic communication even on the official level, there are lots of Russian-language schools (albeit they have been decreasing in number), and no-one has changed the alphabet for the Russian language. But nationalism has been growing over the past 10 years, and some Russian-speakers have left for that reason, or more over due to a lack of social mobility in the country and the dominance of ruling clans in all power structures and business circles.

kvs wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

ALAMO wrote:That would be kinda interesting to watch, as the whole norther part of Kazachstan is inhabited by the Russians, and considers itself Russian. They don't speak Kazakh there, so we have lot's of similarities with the East of 404. And we are talking 4.5 out of 14 mln people who consider themself as Russkies.

Which opens up many amazing opportunities especially considering how Kazakhstan was doing everything it could to piss off the Russian population and attempt to forcefully assimilate them

They have been trying to push 404 style language laws for years and erase cyrillic alphabet (maybe even did, haven't been keeping up)

Russia must make sure that this third of the population and its settled territory breaks free of the lunatics in the south.
If it was good for Sudan, then it is good Kazakhstan.   Let NATzO bleat about territorial integrity until the cows come home.

No more money should be wasted on Baikonur.  

I don't think there is support for splitting from Kazakhstan in the north of the country. Many Russian-speakers have already emigrated out over the last 30 years, and today it is the north-west of the country from where the protests actually started, with Aktobe, a city right across the border from Orenburg in Russia - being the main epicentre of the protest movement.

There is a lot of pro-Soviet/Russian sentiment left in Almaty, which is right in the south of the country.

It doesn't make any sense to try and grab anything, as if Kazakhstan falls then the road to the rest of the Central Asian states and improving integration with them is blocked. The priority should be to help the govt. there to maintain control and that way they will be forced to move closer to Russia to counter-act the Soros attempt at destabilization and revolution in the country.
If the radicals win, then the priority should be to continue to help the sane people in the country and the part of the elite loyal to post-Soviet re-integration (which I think is the majority part of it still). Encouraging more people to emigrate to Russia meanwhile will only cement Kazakhstan as an anti-Russian barricade dividing Russia from the rest of Central Asia. The sane people there must fight for their home.

kvs wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:

kvs wrote:Russian analysts expect a Maidan coup in Kazakhstan.

It won't happen.  If it does, it will be like Kyrgyzstan then.

Edit:

https://tass.com/world/1383989

So nothing will change. But I think the people have a right to protest over price hikes. Same here in Canada or elsewhere.

Hopefully government takes concerns at face value and try to get prices down.

These "gas protests" are outside the scope of such.   Now the "protestors" are storming government buildings.   This is
a Maidan operation using "discontent" over gas prices as cover/pretext.   The a reaction of the government will be used
to justify a colour revolution.   Kazakhstan has gone down the same road as Ukraine.   The same cheesy nazionalism by
both the old regime and the NATzO sponsored insurgents.  

Yes, I noticed now how far it's going. Wonder if Russia saw this coming and let it happen so that Kazakhstan learns a lesson.

Wonder what end result will be?

Martial law was earlier declared in Kazakhstan for late evening and night hours.
Aeroflot flights in and out of the country cancelled.
Internet across the whole of Kazakhstan has been shut-down.
Battles between protestors and police erupted in Pavlodar, north Kazakhstan
Near Aktau (western Kazakhstan on the Caspian) a military truck was surrounded along with all personnel
Situation in Almaty only getting worse, soldiers and police isolated and beaten, administration building torched, utility vehicles taken over, interior ministry building is being assaulted
Protestors are moving on Almaty airport, reportedly they have already taken it over
Metallurgical workers in Balkhash (central Kazakhstan) have come out to join the protestors, there is a considerable movement there
The capital Nur-Sultan seems to be quiet for the time being, entrance to and exit out of the city has been blocked by law enforcement
World oil prices shooting up.
Shares of some Kazakh companies tanking.

ALAMO wrote:The thing that makes me wonder, is whose "maidan" is that in general
Kazah govt was sending such a different signals for the last years, that this might be anyone.

The Kazakh govt. decided to pursue a "multi-vector policy". It included both pro-Russian and pro-Western elites, and it was obligated therefore to compromise and satisfy the Russophobes. In fact even breed these people, with the new version of history they're teaching.

With the increased tensions between the US and Russia, and the US and China, and shortly after the CIS 30-year anniversary meeting in St. Petersburg a week ago, probably the Kazakh leadership decided to put their chips in with Russia, as Yanukovich had when he ultimately decided to forgo signing the Association Agreement with the EU.
And sure as clockwork, the regime change operation was initiated. Backed by the pro-West elite of the country, with the incumbents being the pro-Russian lobby which had tried to compromise and form a unified leadership with them, in the hopes of more natural resource sales and political options - flirting with Washington, London and the Turks (the last of which I'm not sure on which side they are in these events)

Now they're doubtlessly realized their mistake. Too late? We'll see.

The are reports that situation is Almaty is out of any control of government.
Airport is reportedly taken over.

Now there is a cargo plane coming from Tbilisi, Grucia (company "Geo-Sky") about to land in Almaty at any moment. You know what it is all about.
What I don't understand is why the government doesn't stop it: send air force to force it divert course.


I cannot share link to flightradar as I'm new here but you can look it up

Urluber wrote:What I don't understand is why the government doesn't stop it: send air force to force it divert course.

Compromised heavily probably.

Just as there is a divide between a pro-Russian/Chinese and pro-Western course in the business and political elites, that divide is probably present in the military leadership too. And since no-one knows which side will win, probably a lot of people including military officers are hedging their bets, helping both sides, or not following any orders at all.

Like I said this situation resembles Syria 2011 even more than the Ukrainian Maidan.

flamming_python wrote:

Urluber wrote:What I don't understand is why the government doesn't stop it: send air force to force it divert course.

Compromised heavily probably.

Just as there is a divide between a pro-Russian/Chinese and pro-Western course in the business and political elites, that divide is probably present in the military leadership too. And since no-one knows which side will win, probably a lot of people including military officers are hedging their bets, helping both sides, or not following any orders at all.

Like I said this situation resembles Syria 2011 even more than the Ukrainian Maidan.

Probably, yes.
It's amazing how easy it seems to be to set up these coups in certain places. And how they do not learn.
USA is quickly out of cards if it is faced with decisive action, like was in Belarus. They don't expect that kind of reaction. It's no magic. Just keep the lines straight in peace-time (that's how it is done in west also - opposition in deep power structures, ie. military, is not allowed whatsoever).


And I definitely agree: more Syria than Ukraine. Although it now depends on what is the reaction from government and if they actually manage to gather any actual support. In Syria the government had support base and thus managed to somewhat fight back (not very effectively however until Russia showed up).


Reportedly Kazakh president has held phone calls with Putin and Lukashenko.