The Situation in the Ukraine. #31

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/23/german-navy-chief-quits-after-saying-putin-deserves-respect-over-ukraine

Apparently the German Naval head honcho has been fired , due to his comments on Putin and Ukraine

Germany is erupting from the lack of gas, the fissures in Germany have cracked open

Russia holds dominance over NATO and Germany, they are breaking at the seams

Incoming US aid, apart from 100 more Javelins includes these

The M141 Bunker Defeat Munition (BDM), or SMAW-D ("Disposable"), is a single-shot, shoulder-launched weapon designed to defeat hardened structures. The weapon was designed as a modification of the United States Marine Corps Shoulder-launched Multipurpose Assault Weapon (SMAW) to fill the void in the United States Army inventory of a "bunker buster" weapon.

I think Russia would be well advised to keep the written response secret. It is most likely the Biden diplomats want to keep it secret from the CIA gangsters. If what is written is too sensible , the CIA will spring into action.

Glad I'm not flying anywhere in Europe at the moment.

nomadski wrote:


So as far as Russia concerned , situation is clear  ?  NATO moving into Ukraine means a new Iron curtain in Europe and Russia moving East . Nukes in Ukraine means Russian Nuke Submarines near USA coast , with possibly repair or refuelling ( R&R)  in South America . Further ethnic war against Russian speakers means indirect material help for them across border . Direct attack against Crimea means a defensive response by Russia . Russia considers Ukraine a lost cause . Not interested in taking Kiev back . Or spending blood and treasure in fixing the broken country .

It is not so simple,  NATO expansion will not trigger an iron curtain alone. 

Its clearly stipulated in the "non ultimatum" that NATO expansion is unacceptable and must return to 1997 positions of deployment. 

The written response must be made public, to expose the acknowledged aggressive posture of NATO. 

Most of the Russian combined arms armies have moved to Yelnya,  Voronezh,  Rostov, and are now massing in Minsk and Grodno. 

Russia did not issue the "non ultimatum" so that it could accept NATO expansion. 

The terms are very clear, the threat is not Ukraine, it is NATO

The outcome of this has already been wargamed and explored vastly by the Russian elite. 

The contingency is in place, and as of now a written response is needed to proceed to the next phase in enforcing the "non ultimatum"

bitcointrader70 wrote:

GarryB wrote:

Yankees have been printing money since the 70s. It’s how they beat the Soviet Union. No one has gone to jail or got lynched yet.

Yes... printing money is their go to solution, but that only works when other countries accept US dollars... how long can that possibly continue... would you accept payment of debt in a currency the debtor just prints more of when they need more money?

Pretty soon you are going to recognise that money is useless... especially as more and more countries refuse to accept it for buying their stuff, and then there will be a panic where countries who are owed lots of money suddenly realise if they just print a batch to pay off their debt what if no one else accepts their junk money... you delivered real products or services and they pay you in monopoly money... of course you are going to demand payment in Euros or gold or something else that actually has a value... then what happens is like what happened in Germany when they suffered from hyperinflation... children were making kites out of million deuchmark notes because the paper the money is printed on is worth more than the denomination.

Women would take bundles of cash in wheel barrows to buy a single loaf of bread... get it today because tomorrow you need even more money for that loaf.

2 propaganda trolls going at it with other damage control trolls dropping likes

What damage?

When the west rejects Russia and any future potential for partnership with Russia in anything Russia is going to reorient itself to the rest of the world... Russia will still sell gas to the EU but on Russian terms of not at all, and the EU wont be a high priority so if sending gas to China and the EU and there is not enough then China will get priority... because they will be the ones with the long term contracts.

This is Russia growing up.

On the India Russia thread Jhelb mentions several times about the crazy situation where young Indians and young Vietnamese people look to America like it is the best place on the planet, but as Jhelb mentions himself... the west couldn't give a shit about anyone but themselves... the youth of Russia have the exact same problem with both America and the EU...

This looks like a pivotal point where it might actually change...

People keep talking about this cataclysm that’s supposed to occur forever ago when the dollar becomes worthless and no one wants it anymore.  I’m still waiting. When will it happen in 10 years? 20? 30? 40? 50? A hundred years? By the time it happens Russia might not even exist as a state if NATO gets their way.

People have been saying the same things you are saying since the 1970s when all of this started but guess what? America is still top dog and everyone is still scared shitless when the america brings the pain with their economic warfare.

And America currently is the best place on the planet. It has the most opportunity for someone who is young and hardworking.

Haha wow. No. The US is not the "top dog". It's the top dog in delivering propaganda that convinces ppl of that.

I will get flamed for this but the EU is superior to the US in most socio economic scores. But flame away. Anti EU propaganda is the 2nd biggest export of the US.

Who's the biggest net creditor in the world ? Not China. The EU is. Far lower govt debt , huge industrial base despite high wages. Huge trade surpluses. Life expectancy is higher in the EU.

Give me some socio economic data points that show that the US is better than Europe.

What makes you think the US is the "best place on the planet" ?

Also Putin does not need to "climb down" or "save face".

The demand was made intentionally with knowledge that our aforementioned partners would categorically reject the demand.

The demands were explicit, 4 main points with minimal words needed to convey 1 central point.

NATO expansion is over, NATO will remove its weapons from the Russian border, and it will be done by signing the "non ultimatum" or signing a big fat F You.

Either way, the "non ultimatum" is going to be enforced.

The 1st armored brigade combat team stationed in Zagan Poland, and the Aegis Ashore system are covered by the 11th army corps in Kaliningrad, S400 is denying them air superiority. And Iskander and Kalibr picking apart the Patriot system and the Aegis Ashore there.

Meanwhile Belarus is now the site of the most epic build up of SAM and ballistic missile forces, with S400 basically putting a no fly zone over all of western Ukraine.

With the S400 in Crimea, the entire Ukrainian airspace is sealed.

Su30sm and Tu22m3 with Tu160m can rocket Ramstein airbase and Lakenheath from friendly Belarus, with S400 covering them adequately.

That is the business end of the stick. Javelins and NLAWS are not going to change the de facto situation.

Russian forces in Belarus have cleaved NATO into 3 parts separated and unable to be reinforced.

We are just waiting on the written response.

It is time to invite Russia to join NATO - German media

https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/open-letter-it-s-time-to-invite-russia-to-join-nato-a-682287.html

Arkanghelsk wrote:Also Putin does not need to "climb down" or "save face".

The demand was made intentionally with knowledge that our aforementioned partners would categorically reject the demand.

The demands were explicit, 4 main points with minimal words needed to convey 1 central point.

NATO expansion is over, NATO will remove its weapons from the Russian border, and it will be done by signing the "non ultimatum" or signing a big fat F You.

Either way, the "non ultimatum" is going to be enforced.

The 1st armored brigade combat team stationed in Zagan Poland, and the Aegis Ashore system are covered by the 11th army corps in Kaliningrad,  S400 is denying them air superiority. And Iskander and Kalibr picking apart the Patriot system and the Aegis Ashore there.

Meanwhile Belarus is now the site of the most epic build up of SAM and ballistic missile forces, with S400 basically putting a no fly zone over all of western Ukraine.

With the S400 in Crimea, the entire Ukrainian airspace is sealed.

Su30sm and Tu22m3 with Tu160m can rocket Ramstein airbase and Lakenheath from friendly Belarus, with S400 covering them adequately.

That is the business end of the stick. Javelins and NLAWS are not going to change the de facto situation.

Russian forces in Belarus have cleaved NATO into 3 parts separated and unable to be reinforced.

We are just waiting on the written response.

If your delusions were  shared by Putin and Russian generals we would be in all out nuclear war right now. You need some psych meds.

Sujoy wrote:It is time to invite Russia to join NATO - German media

https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/open-letter-it-s-time-to-invite-russia-to-join-nato-a-682287.html

These people are just idiots.

I was just scanning through TV channels(I don't watch much TV) and CNN(never watch them or listen to them, I just stopped because it was talking about Russia) and one of the idiots they had said something along the lines of "We should sanction Russian semiconductor imports, this would destroy the Russian economy." I just switched the channel and said to myself what idiots, they had one nutcase US idiot, saying that "Ukraine is the bread basket of Russia."

Isos wrote:Right now US abd the UK dogs are just pushing for a war with no reason but to try to inflict damages to Russia. Which is stupid because Russia will seize the country and expend. That will also create a massive migrant flee towards EU which will increase the migrant crisis.

Maybe that's exactly what EU countries want, to get more European (white) migrants, instead of those from Syria/Lybia/Afganistan/etc...

Its all about Ukraine!

My latest post at https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/russia-to-hold-live-fire-naval-exercise-off-coast-of-ireland/


Come on guys, get your heads out of the weeds, stop thinking like NCOs and start analysing this from the perspective of a General.

Don’t you think that the Russians have done a full analysis of the potential Intel and locational risks? Don’t you think that they could have located this exercise in a 100 other places and at many different times? Where is it? At a critical point west of NATO.

Have you noticed the other major Russian exercise, with extra troops with all their hardware from the Far East, going down at a similar time in Belarus? At a very critical point to the east of NATO. I would lay money that, unseen by us but visible to those who matter, other deployments are underway off the USA.

Do you think this is a set of co-incidences? Not a bat in hells chance. These two unusual events are where they are and when for a reason and the hint is in the date, early February. What else happens at this time with significant events co-inciding in the past?

How about the Winter Olympics 2014 and 2022? In 2014 the Russians were hosting the event when they were caught with their pants down by the revolution in Kiev, the event limiting their courses of action. Fast forward 8 years and Putin is in Beijing both for the event and a major meeting with Xi. Do you think, with remarkable co-incidence Ukraine going hot again, they are going to be caught like that again?

Putin and the Russian leadership may be unlikeable but they are not stupid. They have been telling their population for months that the only way they will touch Ukraine is to save Donbas from attack. If they do anything else Putin is gone, in disgrace. So they have done three things to protect February:

- moved a massive ‘don’t do anything stupid Kiev’ force into place to discourage a False Flag or an attack
- moved at least two massive operational groups into place on NATO’s edges to indicate that if they have to they can hurt NATO so don’t encourage Kiev.

Or do any of you have a better reason? Please lay off the trite responses, you are better than that.

Well either this " non-ultimatum " is talking loudly and carrying a small stick . Or it is talking softly and carrying a big stick . In the first case , it might work or it may not . Either way , no harm done . In the second case , if Russia is going to war with NATO , or elements thereof remaining in Eastern Europe . Then we should be seeing some practical preparations now , such as :

( 1 )  To keep enemy ships from entering the Med sea , and launching missiles , then Russian ships and Subs should be sent to Syria . And all planes there equipped with
         anti-ship and anti-submarine munitions . Otherwise Turkey may stop transfer after start of hostilities .

( 2 )  Increase number of ground troops in Syria , to remove yank troops and secure supply route through Iran and Iraq . With Iranian help .

( 3 )  Station subs and ships in northern Indian Ocean , with Iran and China and India , to secure shipping to India . And reinforcements to South America .

In this way , Russia not cut off from most of the world . Will survive war , at least short term , with NATO . In the unlikely event , that it would not have already turned nuclear . Do we see any of these preparations ?  Or are we looking at Nuclear war ? Or mere exercises ?

Sujoy wrote:It is time to invite Russia to join NATO - German media

https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/open-letter-it-s-time-to-invite-russia-to-join-nato-a-682287.html

What is up with those jerries, eh?

Inviting Russia to join NATO? What is this, the 90s?

As soon as they went along with this shit in the Ukraine and supported those Nazis the confrontation with Moscow became inevitable. You can't tell me they didn't know any better.
Now they're getting cold feet over it, after what, 30 years? After Yugoslavia, Ukraine, Libya, Syria? After all that, and now they want to invite Russia to the club?

Yeah guys it's not happening. The Germans know this. If they want to escape from the madhouse themselves then by all means, carry on trying to play the adult in the room and say what you must even if its baloney. Or maybe the Germans are concerned about the US and UK using this all as a pretext to hijack the EU's fledgling foreign policy in their own interests, together with their clients within it such as Poland.

Well I can sympathise with all that, but Russia's not joining NATO one way or the other. On the contrary, it very much wants NATO to keep its distance from Russia, from the Donbass, from Belarus, and that ought to be respected. They can keep their 'bread basket of Russia' the Ukraine, civil-war ridden Libya, your Bosnia's and your Kosovo's and Montenegro's. You guys done it, now it's all your problem.

Would be good. Russia joins NATO. Russia send troops in the baltic states for baltic air policing mission. Russia leaves NATO and leave the troops in the baltics. Then take the baltics.

No article 5 possible since russians troops were invited to come in the baltics.

Hybrid war .

Inviting Russia in NATO?

That train kinda left the station several wars ago, did it not?

German diplomacy: Yesterday's solutons for today's problems

Germans having meltdown, they fired their naval chief for complimenting putin

They blocked Estonia from sending weapons to Ukraine

Scholz rejected a meeting with Biden

Then they invite russia to NATO

They are cracking under the pressure, but ship has sailed, power of siberia 2 will take all the capacity from those fields supplying nord stream 2

So germany wrecked the EU economy and regrets it. Oh well, they can buy LNG , and Nord stream 2 should be routed to kaliningrad where they can buy the gas from kaliningrad,

If Power of Siberia 2 takes all the capacity idk what Putin can tell them...they should have thought of this sooner

All this for Ukraine, which was never joining the eu anyway... cant fix stupid!

I seriously hope they divert it to Kaliningrad. I heard that Russian region is expensive for utilities. So cheap gas flowing to it can do wonders.

Most of their troops are further than 60km, some are even at 200km away from the border in big bases. And ukrainian forces can't really go in pro russian area at the border since they are at war with locals. The buffer zone is quite big.

There is nothing ukraine can do. Only their toshkas can reach russian forces but they have a wide range of system to intercept them, even buks can deal with it.

thegopnik wrote:Serious question, i am sure Russian troops are close to the Ukrainian border but if they are that close and Ukraine's MRLS is close to borders as well wouldn't Russian troops be under fire? I am assuming that Rtut-BM would be covering these troops while their artillery is placed at a farther distance to still hit ukrainian MRLS systems from a farther enough distance correct?

They wouldn't even dream of doing that....Russian boots would be so far up their asses, they'd be flossing their teeth with shoelaces!

thegopnik wrote:Serious question, i am sure Russian troops are close to the Ukrainian border but if they are that close and Ukraine's MRLS is close to borders as well wouldn't Russian troops be under fire? I am assuming that Rtut-BM would be covering these troops while their artillery is placed at a farther distance to still hit ukrainian MRLS systems from a farther enough distance correct?

Those weapons are around the Donbas, not the Russian borders. Even the 404ers want to wake up tomorrow. By the way, claims of Russian troops at the borders are generally made of any troops within 200 kilometers. There are no Russian troops actually at the border.

JohninMK wrote:Its all about Ukraine!

My latest post at https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/russia-to-hold-live-fire-naval-exercise-off-coast-of-ireland/


Come on guys, get your heads out of the weeds, stop thinking like NCOs and start analysing this from the perspective of a General.

Don’t you think that the Russians have done a full analysis of the potential Intel and locational risks? Don’t you think that they could have located this exercise in a 100 other places and at many different times? Where is it? At a critical point west of NATO.

Have you noticed the other major Russian exercise, with extra troops with all their hardware from the Far East, going down at a similar time in Belarus? At a very critical point to the east of NATO. I would lay money that, unseen by us but visible to those who matter, other deployments are underway off the USA.

Do you think this is a set of co-incidences? Not a bat in hells chance. These two unusual events are where they are and when for a reason and the hint is in the date, early February. What else happens at this time with significant events co-inciding in the past?

How about the Winter Olympics 2014 and 2022? In 2014 the Russians were hosting the event when they were caught with their pants down by the revolution in Kiev, the event limiting their courses of action. Fast forward 8 years and Putin is in Beijing both for the event and a major meeting with Xi. Do you think, with remarkable co-incidence Ukraine going hot again, they are going to be caught like that again?

Putin and the Russian leadership may be unlikeable but they are not stupid. They have been telling their population for months that the only way they will touch Ukraine is to save Donbas from attack. If they do anything else Putin is gone, in disgrace. So they have done three things to protect February:

- moved a massive ‘don’t do anything stupid Kiev’ force into place to discourage a False Flag or an attack
- moved at least two massive operational groups into place on NATO’s edges to indicate that if they have to they can hurt NATO so don’t encourage Kiev.

Or do any of you have a better reason? Please lay off the trite responses, you are better than that.

Very intelligent post.

[quote="Krepost"]

JohninMK wrote:

Very intelligent post.

Thanks, they don't see my posts quite like that most of the time. One of them calls me Ivan as I put the opposite view so must be pro Russia.

Shouldn't be too hard on them, I probably do far more research and have time to think about it than they do.

Given the low quality of diplomats in the US atm we are in very dangerous times. But as I put in the Belarus thread, it is a stunningly massive build up going into Belarus, if you are going the threaten NATO it better look real. They must be having kittens in Brussels.