Russian Economy General News: #11

Who? What?

Anyway, I agree KVS, I'm gonna wait for official numbers. The numbers provided was by RBC own "expert".

Sorry I wasn't clear...

So go and do something more useful in life for once and hang yourself .
Parasites like you ,will not be missed ... for sure.  

Telling someone they should kill themselves and no one would miss them is not acceptable.

Vann is banned for 14 days... if his language and behaviour have not improved if he chooses to return and that ban will become permanent.

GarryB

https://www.intellinews.com/russia-s-gdp-shrinks-by-20-in-april-but-government-maintains-a-triple-surplus-183597/?source=russia

Russia’s GDP shrinks by 20% in April, but government maintains a triple surplus

Russia’s economy shrank by a fifth in size in real terms in April, according to preliminary data released by the Ministry of Finance, but at the same time the government has managed to maintain a triple surplus in its external account.

Russia's nominal GDP shrank by 28%, of which two-thirds was due to the nation-wide lockdown that began on March 30 and another third was due to the collapse in oil prices, the Ministry of Finance said, reports RBC.

The real contraction of the economy in April could be 20%, according to the Ministry, once currency effects are calculated out. If confirmed the fall would be worse than the 7.5% GDP contraction Russia suffered in the 2008 crisis. However, the contraction for the full year this year will be less, as the economy is widely expected to claw back some of its losses in the second half of the year.

At the same time, the government has reported encouraging external account results. Russia is still running a triple surplus: the trade balance, currency account and federal government are all reporting surpluses of $3.8bn, $1.8bn and 0.2% of GDP respectively.

The better than expected result was partly due to a concurrent collapse in imports that offset to some extent the fall in revenue from oil and commodity exports.

The narrow budget surplus highlights the Kremlin’s extreme caution to preserve its financial firepower in this crisis. While other countries have committed anything between 5% and 20% of GDP to stimulus packages, the Russian package currently amounts to 1.9% of GDP, although that is anticipated to rise as work begins.

owais.usmani wrote:https://www.intellinews.com/russia-s-gdp-shrinks-by-20-in-april-but-government-maintains-a-triple-surplus-183597/?source=russia

Russia’s GDP shrinks by 20% in April, but government maintains a triple surplus

Russia’s economy shrank by a fifth in size in real terms in April, according to preliminary data released by the Ministry of Finance, but at the same time the government has managed to maintain a triple surplus in its external account.

Russia's nominal GDP shrank by 28%, of which two-thirds was due to the nation-wide lockdown that began on March 30 and another third was due to the collapse in oil prices, the Ministry of Finance said, reports RBC.

The real contraction of the economy in April could be 20%, according to the Ministry, once currency effects are calculated out. If confirmed the fall would be worse than the 7.5% GDP contraction Russia suffered in the 2008 crisis. However, the contraction for the full year this year will be less, as the economy is widely expected to claw back some of its losses in the second half of the year.

At the same time, the government has reported encouraging external account results. Russia is still running a triple surplus: the trade balance, currency account and federal government are all reporting surpluses of $3.8bn, $1.8bn and 0.2% of GDP respectively.

The better than expected result was partly due to a concurrent collapse in imports that offset to some extent the fall in revenue from oil and commodity exports.

The narrow budget surplus highlights the Kremlin’s extreme caution to preserve its financial firepower in this crisis. While other countries have committed anything between 5% and 20% of GDP to stimulus packages, the Russian package currently amounts to 1.9% of GDP, although that is anticipated to rise as work begins.

You are trolling with unconfirmed BS from RBC. Keep wanking, since that appears to make you feel important.

And he doesn't even read this he just reposts what I posted already.  Clear sign of a troll.

Instead of repeat of news and repeat of ourselves, I think users should read the thread before posting. As well, conclusions should be made only when official numbers are provided by official sources.

miketheterrible wrote:And he doesn't even read this he just reposts what I posted already.  Clear sign of a troll.

Instead of repeat of news and repeat of ourselves, I think users should read the thread before posting. As well, conclusions should be made only when official numbers are provided by official sources.

Trolls and similar are not interested in contributing to this forum. At the very least there should be corroboration for the alleged
claims of some source. Russia's GDP is characterized by large enterprises and those enterprises have kept operating and are
not locked down. Only irrelevant to Russia's GDP restaurants and boutiques are shut down (and bitching). They do not
constitute 20% of Russia's GDP. In the the USA they do.

What is with this reaction guys?

Is the article wrong?

I would expect considering the situation... ie Russia under sanctions from the west and in the middle of a pandemic that economic figures might show some effects... isn't that normal?

A 30% drop from crippling western sanctions and a national pandemic that force people to stay and home and not work is barely a scratch... I would take that as being rather good news... in comparison the US has lost more people than they lost during the Vietnam war over a period of about 6 months compared with a 10 year conflict... wonder what their real figures would be... does anyone actually work out their real figures with all the padding and BS removed?

Glad to see Vann has finally felt the banhammer.
Every time I see a giant wall of text I know to zoom past, because I know who wrote it.
More importantly, I also remember this poster's appalling defence of Nazism. (Strangely enough he later said that the Russian presidency should be held by a GERMAN!). Sadly once or twice Nazism has infested this forum with 2 or 3 posters in the years I remember. I can say for a fact all the Russian born residents of Russia I know would happily hospitalise anyone attempting to defend Nazism. 27 + million Russian men, women and children were murdered by the filth that is Nazism. And many tens of millions more worldwide. Contrary to Vann's claim, this is NOT defensible in any way, shape or form.

Firebird wrote:Glad to see Vann has finally felt the banhammer.
Every time I see a giant wall of text I know to zoom past, because I know who wrote it.
More importantly, I also remember this poster's appalling defence of Nazism. (Strangely enough he later said that the Russian presidency should be held by a GERMAN!). Sadly once or twice Nazism has infested this forum with 2 or 3 posters in the years I remember. I can say for a fact all the Russian born residents of Russia I know would happily hospitalise anyone attempting to defend Nazism. 27 + million Russian men, women and children were murdered by the filth that is Nazism. And many tens of millions more worldwide. Contrary to Vann's claim, this is NOT defensible in any way, shape or form.

Yeah when I read Vann7's thinly veiled Neo-Nazi stance some years back, I decided to put that pin head goofball sandwich on the ignore list. With that being said, I also get some entertainment from Tingsay's epic counter-trolling lol!

GarryB wrote:What is with this reaction guys?

Is the article wrong?

I would expect considering the situation... ie Russia under sanctions from the west and in the middle of a pandemic that economic figures might show some effects... isn't that normal?

A 30% drop from crippling western sanctions and a national pandemic that force people to stay and home and not work is barely a scratch... I would take that as being rather good news... in comparison the US has lost more people than they lost during the Vietnam war over a period of about 6 months compared with a 10 year conflict... wonder what their real figures would be... does anyone actually work out their real figures with all the padding and BS removed?

Because the numbers don't add up

GarryB wrote:What is with this reaction guys?

Is the article wrong?

I would expect considering the situation... ie Russia under sanctions from the west and in the middle of a pandemic that economic figures might show some effects... isn't that normal?

A 30% drop from crippling western sanctions and a national pandemic that force people to stay and home and not work is barely a scratch... I would take that as being rather good news... in comparison the US has lost more people than they lost during the Vietnam war over a period of about 6 months compared with a 10 year conflict... wonder what their real figures would be... does anyone actually work out their real figures with all the padding and BS removed?

The 20% is the annualized loss since March until now.  But the unemployment figures in Russia are grossly inconsistent with such
a large drop.   In the US they are fully consistent since the GDP and unemployment increase are about the same.   The US is much
more dependent of small business than Russia.   Restaurants, boutiques, corner grocery stores, ghetto liquor stores, tourism, etc.
are a much bigger part of the US economy than in Russia.  

33 million fresh Covid-19 unemployed in the USA vs 700,000 in Russia contradicts claims of a similar GDP contraction.   Also,
the Russia is a gas station posing as a country drivel is strong in this RBC article.   Russia's oil and gas exports are not 50%
of its economy, they are 7% including domestic consumption.   And those exports have not collapsed to zero.   So we are
looking at a worst case contraction from 7% to 4%.   It will take a lot of major contractions for Russian industries to result
in a 20% GDP drop.

RBC is a western sycophant MSM rag.   They parrot NATzO propaganda talking points.  Here they have been caught with their
pants down in flagrante innuendo.

Germany has been in full lockdown and lost between 7 to 10% in april. And we export expensive shit like cars and machines that nobody buys at the moment. Most of the workers are in a special program, they work only a few hours and the government is paying most of their wages so that the companies don´t lay them of.

Hole wrote:Germany has been in full lockdown and lost between 7 to 10% in april. And we export expensive shit like cars and machines that nobody buys at the moment. Most of the workers are in a special program, they work only a few hours and the government is paying most of their wages so that the companies don´t lay them of.

I bet Germany's GDP will not fall by 20%.

kvs wrote:33 million fresh Covid-19 unemployed in the USA vs 700,000 in Russia contradicts claims of a similar GDP contraction.

Virtually 40 million US citizens have filed for unemployment since March.

https://www.russiadefence.net/t8015p925-coronavirus-pandemic-2019-20#284000

Because the numbers don't add up

RBC is a western sycophant MSM rag. They parrot NATzO propaganda talking points. Here they have been caught with their
pants down in flagrante innuendo.

So why can't you post this sort of thing without insulting fellow forum members?

You don't need to post pages and pages of analysis... but if you keep posting insults and claims of trolling then I am inclined to take action against you instead of the members you are complaining about.

If you genuinely think this is actually trolling... don't reply to them, send me a PM with a link and an explanation of what you think is going wrong and we can discuss it.

I will also talk to the member involved and get their side and we can work it out without any abuse or name calling.

GarryB wrote:

Because the numbers don't add up

RBC is a western sycophant MSM rag.   They parrot NATzO propaganda talking points.  Here they have been caught with their
pants down in flagrante innuendo.

So why can't you post this sort of thing without insulting fellow forum members?

You don't need to post pages and pages of analysis... but if you keep posting insults and claims of trolling then I am inclined to take action against you instead of the members you are complaining about.

If you genuinely think this is actually trolling... don't reply to them, send me a PM with a link and an explanation of what you think is going wrong and we can discuss it.

I will also talk to the member involved and get their side and we can work it out without any abuse or name calling.

OK then. It is clear that this site favours trolls.

Bye.

This site does favor trolls over real contributors. Anyway, KVS don't worry about it.

I suggest we just use facts and move on.

Anyway, the so called drop doesn't make much sense tbh. Germany is reliant on small and medium companies, as well as services. If they were on total lockdown, then how did they face a much smaller drop than Russia while Russia still holds a surplus?

None of that adds up.

miketheterrible wrote:

GarryB wrote:What is with this reaction guys?

Is the article wrong?

I would expect considering the situation... ie Russia under sanctions from the west and in the middle of a pandemic that economic figures might show some effects... isn't that normal?

A 30% drop from crippling western sanctions and a national pandemic that force people to stay and home and not work is barely a scratch... I would take that as being rather good news... in comparison the US has lost more people than they lost during the Vietnam war over a period of about 6 months compared with a 10 year conflict... wonder what their real figures would be... does anyone actually work out their real figures with all the padding and BS removed?

Because the numbers don't add up

What numbers don't add up?

Russia's retail, tourism, transport, construction, hospitality & leisure industries combined are hardly insignificant, and they have all virtually been brought to a standstill by the virus and lockdown measures, restrictions on travel and so on. Some industries have been affected too (others will come later)

Add to that the oil price collapse. But then of course for the oil price to collapse, the demand has to collapse. And the collapse in demand correlates to a collapse in economic activity in every other country as well.

I would expect that most European country's economies would decrease by 20% in April at the bare minimum. For many it would be closer to 30%. For the carefree southern countries most reliant on tourism - 40%.

miketheterrible wrote:Anyway, the so called drop doesn't make much sense tbh. Germany is reliant on small and medium companies, as well as services. If they were on total lockdown, then how did they face a much smaller drop than Russia while Russia still holds a surplus?

They didn't. Germany has only published the figures for Q1 AFAIK. Q1 doesn't include April.

Small and medium companies aren't necessarily the ones that get hit. Nor necessarily companies in the service industries.

It's mainly tourism, retail, airlines, airports, construction, hotels, fitness & health, bars/clubs/restaurants/cafes that get impacted; and by impacted I mean totally shut down. At least for April, knock-on effects and loss in trade, purchasing power, inflation, deflation, bank defaults, US dollar losing hegemony, etc... will in time affect everything.

Germany will probably escape with a 10-15% decline in April. They are no more reliant on what I mentioned than Russia is, and they are also not a major oil producer.

But it doesn't really matter because Germany will not save Monaco, Italy, San Marino, Spain, Portugal, Malta, Greece, Cyprus, Croatia, Bulgaria - with their incompetent economic models. All the lazy countries with too much sunshine. Germany will be dragged down with them, their empty beaches & hotels, their excess restaurants & cafes, their overstretched medical expenses, their debts, their expensive green energy attempts, and all their salaries to their numerous bureaucrats and state sector employees that they give work to avoid large unemployment figures.
France and Belgium will fare better, but are basically also in this group - too much exposure to retail, tourism, too many state workers, high debt and not solid enough economic fundamentals

Poland, the Baltics, Romania, the Ukraine will be lesser problems, but basically problems as well - due to their reliance on remittances from migrant workers and reliance on EU funds. This was already under threat due to Brexit and the loss of the British employment market and contributions to the EU budget. Now many of those migrants have taken a hike back home and aren't generating much money for their families, while the EU funds and projects will be cut cut cut!
Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Bosnia, Albania and the Ukraine, these extra-EU black holes that the EU constantly has to give money to. Especially the Ukraine, with all its constant IMF tranches just to prevent a detail due to interest payments on previous loans. They can't do anything with the Ukraine, they can't get rid of it either. Just more mouths to feed.

Which EU countries will do the best in 2020? Finland, Norway, Denmark.
Followed by Sweden, Germany, Holland, Luxembourg, Czech Republic.
Ireland, Austria, Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia probably square in the middle between the best and worst performers.
If these countries were smart they'd ditch the deadweights or at least elevate themselves to their own club within a club with a common currency. But politics will probably prevent it and the EU will just continue on to its 5th or so crisis in a row, and keep at it until it eventually proves non-viable for good; we're probably still a crisis or two away from that but at the rate they're throwing themselves from one boiling pot to another it won't be too long.

Russia itself is probably between the Sweden/Germany and Ireland/Slovakia level, in terms of economic damage. But in practice better, due to its larger internal market, no EU funding commitments, big reserves and low debt.

Yeah, construction industry I believe was hit one of the hardest simply because they stopped that.  Which I find rather odd tbh since out here we had no problems with the construction industry and covid breakouts. Oil accounts for 7% of Russia economy and it didn't drop to 0 for longer than a day. So I doubt oil should affect the economy that much in 1 month.

Here is a good link:

https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/132758/

What industries and industries were successfully operating under quarantine

https://twitter.com/IvanTkachev1/status/1263729378065895425

Fixed investments could be supplemented by NWF in investing in infrastructure development. Since it sits at $150B they could do a lot with that.

But they wont spend it.

This site has gone to shit. KVS hasn't been back and morons everywhere talking about make belief companies like Wagner. I think my time here will also come to an end. Too much trolling and fake news.

Anyway, here is some real news

https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/132765/

One of the reasons the west is in the number twos is because there is no room for alternative views or positions.

You have to love alternative sexual lifestyle choices, no discussion, you have to vote the same way I do... republican or democrat there are no other options.

I am not going to censor people with different views... I haven't so far and will not in the future.

I appreciate you get tired of countering stupid, if you want to give up that is up to you, but they wont give up.

You don't change peoples opinions by abusing them personally, you make it personally so they have no choice but to oppose everything you say and then it is no longer a discussion... it is an argument... and arguments on the internet are pathetic...

FP didn't say Russia is collapsing and that the US and the west has won... the US and the west are clearly in a much worse position even though they still hold most of the cards.

I would think the current situations would have destroyed Russia in the 1990s, but Russia is much stronger and much more independent and should come through this even better than most other countries on the planet. It wont be that they are untouched like the US after WWI and WWII being the production centre of the planet that got through both wars largely undamaged with money and production capacity free to support the rebuilding, but they are in a much better position than they were in 1946 with most of their cities destroyed and 27 million of their people dead and many more injured or damaged mentally...

You need to slip out of "defend Russia" mode and recognise this was not good for Russia, but Russia is now much stronger than it used to be and can weather it and will come back even stronger.

It is only western dicks that think a 5% growth in GDP is what everyone needs and nothing else matters... if you had 5% GDP growth during this period it is because you are outright lying about your numbers like the Ukraine, or your numbers are made up and include illegal activity (which goes on regardless) which means your numbers don't matter anyway... you are fooling yourself.

miketheterrible wrote:This site has gone to shit. KVS hasn't been back and morons everywhere talking about make belief companies like Wagner. I think my time here will also come to an end. Too much trolling and fake news.  

Anyway, here is some real news

https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/132765/

Everyone knows who the trolls are, just ignore them, before reading any comment, I normally see who it is by. If it is a troll, I just skip it.