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    Russian Economy General News: #4

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    Austin

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    Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Austin on Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:39 am

    Russian foreign trade surplus increased by the percentage

    By the end of 2014 the volume of foreign trade of Russia fell by 7 percent to 782.9 billion dollars. This is evidenced by the data of the Federal Customs Service (FCS). In this case, the trade surplus increased by a percentage to 210.9 billion from 208.6 billion a year earlier.

    The balance in the trade with foreign countries amounted to 179.4 billion (up 2.5 billion), with the CIS countries - 31.5 billion (minus 3.8 billion). In general, Russia has sold goods at 496.9 billion dollars (exports fell by 5.8 per cent), bought - by 286 billion (imports fell by 9.2 per cent).

    Russia's revenues from oil supplies fell by 11.3 percent to 153.9 billion dollars. During the year the country exported 223.4 million tons (in 2013 - 236.6 million).

    Earlier, on Jan. 27 Ministry of Economic Development reported that the foreign trade turnover of the Russian Federation at the end of 2014 fell by 5.7 percent. The Office also recorded an increase to 220 billion surplus. The ministry explained that it is due to a decrease in imports due to the weakening of the ruble.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Austin on Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:44 am

    Some one in RT comment was stating that even at $50 oil price Russian Forex reserves will grow by $150 Billion this year , Is this true ?

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Austin on Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:47 am

    Credit Suisse coming with its own gloomy doomy projections

    Russian Debt To GDP Could Explode To 80% This Year: Credit Suisse

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Austin on Tue Feb 10, 2015 2:20 am

    Ministry of Economic Development: The Russian economy will show growth already in 2016

    "Adaptation of the Russian economy to the new conditions - the price of oil, sanctions and Russian bust cycle - will lead to a drop in the economy this year, but growth in the next," - said the Resurrection, addressing the representatives of the Japanese business. - We intend to take advantage of opportunities and to hold a series of reforms aimed at ensuring sustainable economic growth and welfare of our citizens. "

    He said that the Russian economy is now different from the one that faced with the last crisis in 2008. "The balance sheets of banks and companies better prepared, public debt below 15% of GDP, foreign exchange reserves - about $ 400 billion in the US, a record low unemployment rate of 5.2%, - he said. - This is the best performance among the developed countries."

    Stanislav Resurrection expressed confidence that "now is a good time to start new projects in the Russian Federation."

    "We are open to foreign investors - said the deputy minister of economic development. - And a special priority for us - investment from the Asia-Pacific region."

    The economic situation in Russia

    According to the head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina, inflation in Russia in 2015 on an annualized basis can exceed 15% , but then begin to decline. In turn, the Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev said that the peak in inflation is expected in March .

    According to Rosstat, inflation in Russia for January 2015 accelerated to 3.9% against 2.6% in December 2014. In annual terms, growth in consumer prices in January was 15%.

    Elvira also sees no reason for the ruble jumps to around 80 rubles. per dollar. In addition, she said, Russia's GDP in 2015 could decline by 3-4% at an oil price of $ 50 per barrel.

    Earlier, the head of the Central Bank also stated that the factors that led to an increase in the annual inflation rate in Russia up 13.1% at the end of January, strong, but disposable . In her view, such a fall in oil prices, which led to a sharp devaluation of the ruble at the end of last year and acceleration of inflation, is no more.
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    higurashihougi

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  higurashihougi on Tue Feb 10, 2015 2:33 am

    http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/content/eu-lost-21-billion-euros-over-anti-russian-sanctions-spanish-fm-0

    EU Lost 21 Billion Euros Over Anti-Russian Sanctions - Spanish FM

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Vann7 on Tue Feb 10, 2015 3:10 am


    http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/02/russian-debt-to-gdp/


    im not an expert in economy..

    But that reports smell like bullshit..
    it seems that they take the 15% to 20% of Russia debt per GDP.. and increase that dept to 80% from the thing air..
    by the rate conversion of RUble vs Dollar..  Ignoring that Russia receive their energy payments in Dollars.. ignoring UK and FRANCE and US debt of 100%+  and ignoring that Russia does not need to pay the totality of its debt in one year..  they then pull from their Ass .. that Russian reserves will decrease from 385 to 180 billions in just one year.
    as if RUssia will stop receiving any income ..  looks like complete bullshit..

    The only thing that is real.. is that Panic is the goal of western anglo zionist .. to provoke it on Russian population..
    and make them remove all their money from banks.. something that could make far worse things..
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    Kyo

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Kyo on Tue Feb 10, 2015 7:14 am

    Notwithstanding NYT bias, this is an interesting article on CBR's Nabiullina:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/10/business/international/rubles-fall-tests-governor-of-russias-central-bank.html?_r=0

    One seemingly miraculous result of the weak ruble policy has been that Russia’s oil-dependent budget has remained mostly in balance despite the sharp drop in oil prices. That is because both the price of oil and the ruble lost about 50 percent of their value simultaneously. So a barrel of oil now brings the Kremlin roughly the same number of rubles as it did a year ago.
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    sepheronx

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  sepheronx on Tue Feb 10, 2015 7:29 am

    Vann7 wrote:
    http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/02/russian-debt-to-gdp/


    im not an expert in economy..

    But that reports smell like bullshit..
    it seems that they take the 15% to 20% of Russia debt per GDP.. and increase that dept to 80% from the thing air..
    by the rate conversion of RUble vs Dollar..  Ignoring that Russia receive their energy payments in Dollars.. ignoring UK and FRANCE and US debt of 100%+  and ignoring that Russia does not need to pay the totality of its debt in one year..  they then pull from their Ass .. that Russian reserves will decrease from 385 to 180 billions in just one year.
    as if RUssia will stop receiving any income ..  looks like complete bullshit..

    The only thing that is real.. is that Panic is the goal of western anglo zionist .. to provoke it on Russian population..
    and make them remove all their money from banks.. something that could make far worse things..

    It is. Not even worth mentioning.
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    kvs

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  kvs on Tue Feb 10, 2015 4:17 pm

    Austin wrote:Credit Suisse coming with its own gloomy doomy projections

    Russian Debt To GDP Could Explode To 80% This Year: Credit Suisse

    Stop the insanity.

    Russian nominal GDP in dollars as of 2013: $2100 billion
    Russian state debt in % GDP as of 2013: 7.9% of GDP (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rs.html)

    Let's take a nominal devaluation of the ruble by 50%. This implies that Russian state debt is 15.8% of GDP.

    Out of what a** is Credit Suisse coming up with 80%? I know they are lumping all debt they could find and theorize about and
    doing their moronic and malicious estimate. They are still off:

    Russian total debt including private debt is $679 billion (http://www.cbr.ru/eng/statistics/print.aspx?file=credit_statistics/debt_an_det_new_e.htm&pid=svs&sid=itm_272). Assuming no GDP growth from 2013 until 2016, we have 32.3% of GDP becoming 64.7%.

    Clearly Credit Suisse is getting its numbers out of its a**?
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    magnumcromagnon

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Tue Feb 10, 2015 4:24 pm

    kvs wrote:
    Austin wrote:Credit Suisse coming with its own gloomy doomy projections

    Russian Debt To GDP Could Explode To 80% This Year: Credit Suisse

    Stop the insanity.  

    Russian nominal GDP in dollars as of 2013: $2100 billion
    Russian state debt in % GDP as of 2013: 7.9% of GDP (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rs.html)

    Let's take a nominal devaluation of the ruble by 50%.  This implies that Russian state debt is 15.8% of GDP.

    Out of what a** is Credit Suisse coming up with 80%?  I know they are lumping all debt they could find and theorize about and
    doing their moronic and malicious estimate.  They are still off:

    Russian total debt including private debt is $679 billion (http://www.cbr.ru/eng/statistics/print.aspx?file=credit_statistics/debt_an_det_new_e.htm&pid=svs&sid=itm_272).  Assuming no GDP growth from 2013 until 2016, we have 32.3% of GDP becoming 64.7%.

    Clearly Credit Suisse is getting its numbers out of its a**?

    Nothing new in the line of psychological/economic warfare.

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Austin on Tue Feb 10, 2015 10:55 pm

    A Short 3 page report by World Bank

    Russia Monthly Economic Developments
    February 2015

    http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/eca/russia/Russia-Monthly-Economic-Developments-Feb-2015.pdf

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Austin on Tue Feb 10, 2015 10:57 pm

    Ministry of Finance: Budget expenditures necessary to cut another 600 billion rubles

    Ministry of Finance of Russia considers it appropriate not to carry out in 2015 indexation of public sector wages and social benefits, said Finance Minister Anton Siluanov . "The position of the Ministry of Finance, it was not discussed in the government, we believe that in the current environment could miss the indexation of salaries as civil servants and other categories of citizens [public sector] and social benefits to ease the budget of the current and subsequent years, do not stimulate consumption, additional demand, including imported goods , "- he said.

    In the budget of 2015 has provided the freezing indexation of salaries of civil servants, indexing public sector wages reduced to 5.5% (For general inflation). Indexation of pensions is limited to the rate of inflation.

    At the end of last year The Audit Chamber has published a report, the main conclusion is that the government will not be able by 2018 to achieve the goals set for them in the inaugural President's decrees. The plans were based on expectations of high economic growth: 1.6-1.7 times in 2012-2020. In particular, the joint venture to doubt the adequacy of the forecast inflation rate of 5.5%, including double drop rate of growth in food prices.

    According Siluanova, budget expenditures-2015 should be reduced even further to 600 billion rubles. planned reduction in excess of 10%. "Over and above 10%, we still need 600 billion rubles. 10% reduction - is 900 billion rubles. To reach the 5% in real terms reduction of budget expenditures, we need an additional 600 billion rubles. ", - Said the minister.

    "We have a number of measures that need to be addressed this week and offered as amendments to the budget of 2015" - said Siluanov. According to him, it is a refusal of the new investment, a decrease of 50% of the funding of a number of old projects and a number of other decisions, including legislative measures.


    At the end of 2014 Siluanov said that the Finance Ministry does not exclude that in the beginning of 2015 it is decided to cut budget spending by more than 10%. According to the government's anti-crisis plan, budget expenditures can be reduced by at least 5% in real terms during 2016-2018., In 2015 they will be reduced by 10%.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Austin on Wed Feb 11, 2015 9:44 pm

    Some interesting notes

    Klepach said comfortable for the Russian economy the price of oil at $ 60-70 per barrel

    "Now there is a price increase, and the level of $ 60-70 will be comfortable enough for us," - he said.

    He noted that it is necessary a change of direction of oil. In particular, according to Klepach, during low enough prices for oil exploration offshore projects is inefficient and economically profitable enough. You must change the trek to the development of fields in the traditional production regions, he said.

    "We need to focus on the fields in the traditional regions, increasing the recovery factor," - said the deputy chairman of VEB. - But this requires a technological breakthrough. "


    Klepach said that the need to "get away from emotion," perceiving negative dependence of the Russian economy away from oil. "This is our advantage, and nothing humiliating it is not," - he said.

    The effect of devaluation

    However, Klepach said that the devaluation of the ruble Russian economy will bring a positive effect on the level of 1.5 trillion rubles. "Right now, the effect of the devaluation can be estimated at 1.5 trillion rubles," - he said.

    However, much of this effect remains in the banking sector, Klepach said, adding that in the coming years Russia will be cut off from the international financial markets.

    According to him, the end of the year, Russia's international reserves may be reduced to $ 300 billion, based on the official estimates (now the level of reserves of $ 376.2 billion - Ed.). Shocked

    Klepach believes that the traditional "book" rules, inflation targeting is unlikely to be effective enough. In general, higher rates are needed, he said, noting however that this should be established flow of liquidity, which will work on different terms / at lower rates - Ed
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  kvs on Thu Feb 12, 2015 3:10 pm

    Austin wrote:Some interesting notes

    Klepach said comfortable for the Russian economy the price of oil at $ 60-70 per barrel

    "Now there is a price increase, and the level of $ 60-70 will be comfortable enough for us," - he said.

    He noted that it is necessary a change of direction of oil. In particular, according to Klepach, during low enough prices for oil exploration offshore projects is inefficient and economically profitable enough. You must change the trek to the development of fields in the traditional production regions, he said.

    "We need to focus on the fields in the traditional regions, increasing the recovery factor," - said the deputy chairman of VEB. - But this requires a technological breakthrough. "


    Klepach said that the need to "get away from emotion," perceiving negative dependence of the Russian economy away from oil. "This is our advantage, and nothing humiliating it is not," - he said.

    The effect of devaluation

    However, Klepach said that the devaluation of the ruble Russian economy will bring a positive effect on the level of 1.5 trillion rubles. "Right now, the effect of the devaluation can be estimated at 1.5 trillion rubles," - he said.

    However, much of this effect remains in the banking sector, Klepach said, adding that in the coming years Russia will be cut off from the international financial markets.

    According to him, the end of the year, Russia's international reserves may be reduced to $ 300 billion, based on the official estimates (now the level of reserves of $ 376.2 billion - Ed.). Shocked

    Klepach believes that the traditional "book" rules, inflation targeting is unlikely to be effective enough. In general, higher rates are needed, he said, noting however that this should be established flow of liquidity, which will work on different terms / at lower rates - Ed

    Klepach is clueless about the true nature of Russian inflation. He actually talks about high rates and implies there is excess ruble liquidity.
    Total, unmitigated rubbish.
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    kvs

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  kvs on Thu Feb 12, 2015 7:47 pm

    http://www.sdelanounas.ru/blogs/58507/

    The CBR has switched 91 Russian banks to the Russian version of SWIFT.

    Looks like Russia is moving fast and will be fully independent of SWIFT by the end of this year.

    Eat that you NATO wankers!
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    Viktor

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Viktor on Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:12 am

    kvs wrote:http://www.sdelanounas.ru/blogs/58507/

    The CBR has switched 91 Russian banks to the Russian version of SWIFT.

    Looks like Russia is moving fast and will be fully independent of SWIFT by the end of this year.

    Eat that you NATO wankers!

    Now EU and other countries can trade with countries on US sanction list without being noticed.

    Russia also denied sending any of its banking information about its and other citizents and others to US banks making itself a safe haven now that Switzerland has capitulated.


    I support this measure and I think this needed to be done even earlier.

    Putin proposed to consider raising the retirement age
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:24 pm

    If anyone ever questioned if U.S. Shale is a boondoggle, scam, ponzi scheme:

    Drilling Deeper: New Report Casts Doubt on Fracking Production Numbers


    Among the key findings:

    -By 2040, production rates from the Bakken Shale and Eagle Ford Shale will be less than a tenth of that projected by the Energy Department. For the top three shale gas fields — the Marcellus Shale, Eagle Ford and Bakken — production rates from these plays will be about a third of the EIA forecast.

    -The three year average well decline rates for the seven shale oil basins measured for the report range from an astounding 60-percent to 91-percent. That means over those three years, the amount of oil coming out of the wells decreases by that percentage. This translates to 43-percent to 64-percent of their estimated ultimate recovery dug out during the first three years of the well's existence.

    -Four of the seven shale gas basins are already in terminal decline in terms of their well productivity: the Haynesville Shale, Fayetteville Shale, Woodford Shale and Barnett Shale.

    -The three year average well decline rates for the seven shale gas basins measured for the report ranges between 74-percent to 82-percent.

    -The average annual decline rates in the seven shale gas basins examined equals between 23-percent and 49-percent. Translation: between one-quarter and one-half of all production in each basin must be replaced annually just to keep running at the same pace on the drilling treadmill and keep getting the same amount of gas out of the earth.

    Drilling Deeper: New Report Casts Doubt on Fracking Production Numbers

    BTW, this analysis was before the dramatic drop in in oil prices, so it could only mean more trouble for U.S. Shale, considering that U.S. energey companies dedicated over $200 billion in to their shale boondoggle.

    But who's the main source of the findings? Well it's J. David Hughes, a geoscientist who has studied the energy resources of Canada for nearly four decades, including 32 years with the Geological Survey of Canada as a scientist and research manager. He developed the National Coal Inventory to determine the availability and environmental constraints associated with Canada’s coal resources. As Team Leader for Unconventional Gas on the Canadian Gas Potential Committee, he coordinated  publication of a comprehensive assessment of Canada’s unconventional natural gas potential. He is currently president of a consultancy dedicated to research on energy and sustainability issues.
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  kvs on Sat Feb 14, 2015 10:13 pm

    One could see such reports coming a long time ago. The depletion profile for extraction wells in tight deposits
    have a different tail compared to those of standard wells. They do not have "fat" tails so the field decline rate
    is much more rapid in spite of a large number of wells being drilled each year. This fact was brushed under the
    carpet and most media coverage and forecasts have been based on the notion that all deposits behave the same
    way. The use of the word "tight" is not token. The porosity of shale and shale-like sedimentary rock is much
    less than sand stone or dolomite. That is why it needs to be fracked. Fracking does not magically transform
    the rock into swiss cheese, it only manages to liberate a small fraction of the gas.

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Austin on Sun Feb 15, 2015 9:51 am

    BTW What is Russian GDP for 2014 by PPP ?

    Nominal GDP almost decreased by half to $1100 billion.

    Also what is per capita income for 2014 ?

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Austin on Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:01 am

    New Data from CBR

    Russian Federation: Net External Debt Position, by Sector


    http://www.cbr.ru/eng/statistics/print.aspx?file=credit_statistics/debt_sector_14_3_e.htm&pid=svs&sid=itm_48016

    What does External Assets here ?
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    sepheronx

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  sepheronx on Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:01 am

    Austin wrote:BTW What is Russian GDP for 2014 by PPP ?

    Nominal GDP almost decreased by half to $1100 billion.

    Also what is per capita income for 2014 ?

    Where did you get that number? Trading economics still showing $2T.
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    TR1

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  TR1 on Sun Feb 15, 2015 12:17 pm

    Austin wrote:BTW What is Russian GDP for 2014 by PPP ?

    Nominal GDP almost decreased by half to $1100 billion.


    Also what is per capita income for 2014 ?

    Yeah that makes absolutely no sense when you think about it logically.

    Just some newspapers stupidly using ruble value to divide the Product number.

    The prices will adjust.
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    sepheronx

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  sepheronx on Sun Feb 15, 2015 12:28 pm

    TR1 wrote:
    Austin wrote:BTW What is Russian GDP for 2014 by PPP ?

    Nominal GDP almost decreased by half to $1100 billion.


    Also what is per capita income for 2014 ?

    Yeah that makes absolutely no sense when you think about it logically.

    Just some newspapers stupidly using ruble value to divide the Product number.

    The prices will adjust.

    Well, technically, that is the major flaw in GDP nominal measurements. The complaint mentioned in GDP PPP article in Wiki when comparing between nominal and Purchasing Parity is that if the currency drops in half, your nominal gdp drops in half, because it is directly comparing it to USD. But PPP fixes that by comparing basic staples costs and what not. Hence Indias nominal gdp drops because of rupee value but their ppp is much higher because they can get plenty for less price (good pair of eye glasses, same brand and quality will run you $300 in CAD here but in India, 800 rupees which is roughly $15).

    So the papers measurement is not necessarily wrong, but the concept behind it and the idea that is how good an economy is, is wrong. Russia manufactures and produces a massive amount of daily consumed products with exceptions like average electronic component, so the prices of these goods are to be taken account for, compared to lets say Canada were we import most of our daily consumed products.
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sun Feb 15, 2015 12:32 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    Austin wrote:BTW What is Russian GDP for 2014 by PPP ?

    Nominal GDP almost decreased by half to $1100 billion.

    Also what is per capita income for 2014 ?

    Where did you get that number? Trading economics still showing $2T.

    Has Austin gone off the deep end? GDP decreased by $1100 billion?!?! That's absurd! He's saying the GDP decreased by $1.1 trillion, that's probably one of the most ridiculous claims that I've read in this thread. If the Russian economy shrunk by $1.1 trillion than their would be massive riots and looting in the streets of Moscow.
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    sepheronx

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  sepheronx on Sun Feb 15, 2015 12:47 pm

    Well, it comes off weird in that claim when it has been documented by various groups/parties that there was a gdp growth of 0.6% in 2014.

    The other thing is, it would be first time in history that a country was hit in sich a hard way (the way they figured in whom Austin is I suppose quoting) from sanctions and drop of oil value and currency value dropping, when Iran faced at most, a small drop of 1.5% and semi growth/stagnation when they were slapped with economic sanctions, banned from SWIFT, currency devaluing in the thousand % range and oil fluctuation over the last 30 years. And Russia has far more manufacturing and industrial good production, mining and agricultural development than Iran does.

    So it sure sounds very iffy to me.

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