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    France Foreign Policy and Diplomacy

    Aristide
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    Post  Aristide on Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:12 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    It was planned for years and now the EU ended it.
    It wasn't only  due to EU pressure- the whole World was outraged! If he now has nothing to lose, next time he'll tell the EU to get lost, just like President Duterte did in the Philippines. The French Polynesia is too far from that nation to be of any consequence.
    He has much to lose. He lost free trade agreement. Next step would be to ban brazilian beef completly from import. So now he lost what he could have had. Next step would be that he loses what he already has.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:23 pm

    So now he lost what he could have had.
    if this was planned before the forest fires, then he had nothing to lose regarding free trade with the EU.
    He can export the same beef to China & others who need it.
    Aristide
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    Post  Aristide on Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:46 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    So now he lost what he could have had.
    if this was planned before the forest fires, then he had nothing to lose regarding free trade with the EU.
    He can export the same beef to China & others who need it.

    No he cant. Not for this price. The free trade agreement was cancelled after the fire.

    The beef lobby in Brazil needs the european market since it imports high price meat. Prices China is neither willing nor able to pay. The beef market is quite competive. If Europe switches to Argentina, US and Australia, Brazil has a problem. Because China can still buy cheaper in Argentina, New Zealand or wherever.

    I expect those lesser countries to know what we want from them. And i expect them to do as ordered.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Sep 22, 2019 10:37 pm

    Of course the punishment will be still at place. The freetrade agreement with MERCOSUR is dead. It was planned for years and now the EU ended it. ..The free trade agreement was cancelled after the fire.
    the punishment must fit the crime. If the EU planned it before, now it doesn't matter when if was implemented.
    No he cant. Not for this price.
    Brazil can continue kissing the EU boots or she can diversify her exports; less beef produced= less income but also less incentives for more fires to clear pastures.
    The top exports of Brazil are Soybeans ($25.9B), Iron Ore ($20.1B), Crude Petroleum ($17.4B), Raw Sugar ($11.4B) and Cars ($6.78B),.., not beef.
    The top export destinations of Brazil are China ($48B), the United States ($25.1B), Argentina ($17.8B), the Netherlands ($7.57B) and Germany ($6.18B).
    https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/bra/

    Only the last 2 r EU members, with total $13.75B worth of exports.
    A loss of that amount won't topple Bolsonaro.
    Aristide
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    Post  Aristide on Mon Sep 23, 2019 6:23 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    Of course the punishment will be still at place. The freetrade agreement with MERCOSUR is dead. It was planned for years and now the EU ended it. ..The free trade agreement was cancelled after the fire.
    the punishment must fit the crime. If the EU planned it before, now it doesn't matter when if was implemented.
    No he cant. Not for this price.
    Brazil can continue kissing the EU boots or she can diversify her exports; less beef produced= less income but also less incentives for more fires to clear pastures.  
    The top exports of Brazil are Soybeans ($25.9B), Iron Ore ($20.1B), Crude Petroleum ($17.4B), Raw Sugar ($11.4B) and Cars ($6.78B),.., not beef.
    The top export destinations of Brazil are China ($48B), the United States ($25.1B), Argentina ($17.8B), the Netherlands ($7.57B) and Germany ($6.18B).
    https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/bra/

    Only the last 2 r EU members, with total $13.75B worth of exports.
    A loss of that amount won't topple Bolsonaro.

    You underestimate that bolsonaro was brought into power by his greedy agrar lobbyist buddies. Why you think he quickly changed his policies by 180 degree? He depends on the farmers
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    Post  GarryB on Mon Sep 23, 2019 6:31 am

    There are several French companies that own debt in Brazil and these companies are driving the expansion of cattle farming and soy bean farming... a change in trade for Brazil to something a bit more healthy is probably good for both sides.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Mon Sep 23, 2019 6:56 am

    Why you think he quickly changed his policies by 180 degree? He depends on the farmers
    not the cattle ranchers, if his army is arresting them for torching forests; he is now more afraid of the EU, according to u- so which 1 is it?
    The top exporters of Soybeans are Brazil ($25.9B), the United States ($22B), Argentina ($2.82B), Paraguay ($2.19B) and Canada ($1.91B). The top importers are China ($36.6B), Mexico ($1.72B), the Netherlands ($1.6B), Japan ($1.41B) and Spain ($1.31B).
    https://oec.world/en/profile/hs92/1201/

    So, most of that crop goes to PRC+Japan ($38.01B), not the Netherlands+Spain ($2.91B). U r overestimating the impact the EU & France in particular has on Brazil.
    I personally won't bet a dime on his life- he was stabbed before his election & he can be stabbed or shot again.
    Aristide
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    Post  Aristide on Mon Sep 23, 2019 9:29 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    Why you think he quickly changed his policies by 180 degree? He depends on the farmers
    not the cattle ranchers, if his army is arresting them for torching forests; he is now more afraid of the EU, according to u- so which 1 is it?
    The top exporters of Soybeans are Brazil ($25.9B), the United States ($22B), Argentina ($2.82B), Paraguay ($2.19B) and Canada ($1.91B). The top importers are China ($36.6B), Mexico ($1.72B), the Netherlands ($1.6B), Japan ($1.41B) and Spain ($1.31B).
    https://oec.world/en/profile/hs92/1201/

    So, most of that crop goes to PRC+Japan ($38.01B), not the Netherlands+Spain ($2.91B). U r overestimating the impact the EU & France in particular has on Brazil.
    I personally won't bet a dime on his life- he was stabbed before his election & he can be stabbed or shot again.

    Well France is one of the biggest economic powers on this planet, add the fact that we have enormous influence in the EU and you understand why Bolsonaro buckled.

    Those savages should know their place.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:05 pm

    Those savages should know their place.
    they r not more savage than W. Europeans! FYI, the natives there didn't start those fires.
    If all L. American nations pull together & start free trade with each other+ Africa, China, India & the RF, they'll become mostly self sufficient.
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    Post  GarryB on Tue Sep 24, 2019 2:20 am

    If all L. American nations pull together & start free trade with each other+ Africa, China, India & the RF, they'll become mostly self sufficient.

    You can bet your ass that those Brazilian cattle farmers are not getting very much for their beef... those french restaurants overcharge and keep the money for themselves.

    The world is full of countries that produce food and products that can trade with each other and ignore europe and all their money and power, europeans have an over inflated sense of self worth anyway... their cars are ordinary and expensive... I would prefer a Japanese car to a european one, and those south korean and chinese car brands are getting better all the time.

    For the rest of the world Asia and Russia can pretty much cover any technology they might previously have bought from the west, and together the rest of the world is a huge market with enough choice and options that they wont miss european or american products...

    The fact that you call them savages in this day and age is reason enough to look for other trade options.
    Aristide
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    Post  Aristide on Tue Sep 24, 2019 10:27 am

    GarryB wrote:
    If all L. American nations pull together & start free trade with each other+ Africa, China, India & the RF, they'll become mostly self sufficient.

    You can bet your ass that those Brazilian cattle farmers are not getting very much for their beef... those french restaurants overcharge and keep the money for themselves.

    The world is full of countries that produce food and products that can trade with each other and ignore europe and all their money and power, europeans have an over inflated sense of self worth anyway... their cars are ordinary and expensive... I would prefer a Japanese car to a european one, and those south korean and chinese car brands are getting better all the time.

    For the rest of the world Asia and Russia can pretty much cover any technology they might previously have bought from the west, and together the rest of the world is a huge market with enough choice and options that they wont miss european or american products...

    The fact that you call them savages in this day and age is reason enough to look for other trade options.

    How laughable to believe restaurants are the core customer. The meat goes to supermarkets, restaurants ect.

    And exactly as you state, the world is full of countries that produce food. But its not full of countries that pay our prices. We want highest quality and we pay for that.

    Also funny you bring up Japan. Japan is basicly a european nation. They hate evry other asian country and orientate themself on us.

    Sam counts for South Korea.

    As a european you are king there.

    As a frenchman you re king in the world. I walk through passport checks in Chile, Bolivia or Japan without being bothered. In Australia the passport women smiles at me, gives me the stamp in my passport and the indians behind me get rounded up. As european you are at the top in global hierarchy.

    Btw i have meet a new zealand couple in new caledonia. They were not so grumpy like you. ;P
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue Sep 24, 2019 2:53 pm

    Also funny you bring up Japan. Japan is basically a european nation. They hate every other asian country and orientate themself on us. Same counts for South Korea. As a european you are king there.
    wrong, they r westernized but not European, & regard themselves as superior to others. Japan is eager to get the S. Kurils & get a peace treaty afterwards with Russia, but they'll get them only in their dreams, as long as Moscow rules the RFE.
    SK-Japan disputes may 1 day lead to armed confrontation, in which the US will stay neutral. In 1945 all of Korea was liberated from the Japanese by the USSR & in the future conflict NK, PRC & Russia will side with SK. France & the EU will be just watching on the sidelines.
    Aristide
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    Post  Aristide on Tue Sep 24, 2019 5:16 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    Also funny you bring up Japan. Japan is basically a european nation. They hate every other asian country and orientate themself on us. Same counts for South Korea. As a european you are king there.
    wrong, they r westernized but not European, & regard themselves as superior to others. Japan is eager to get the S. Kurils & get a peace treaty afterwards with Russia, but they'll get them only in their dreams, as long as Moscow rules the RFE.
    SK-Japan disputes may 1 day lead to armed confrontation, in which the US will stay neutral. In 1945 all of Korea was liberated from the Japanese by the USSR & in the future conflict NK, PRC & Russia will side with SK. France & the EU will be just watching on the sidelines.

    Has nothing to do with the fact that as european you are king in Japan but ok ha ha
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue Sep 24, 2019 5:35 pm

    No, u r a gaijin there- i.e. foreigner that came there to spend $.
    Don't confuse politeness & hospitality with their genuine feelings. Under Tokugawa shoguns they kicked out all the Christian priests/missionaries, killed most converts & thus prevented their nation from being colonized.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Catholic_Church_in_Japan

    The Koreans have ~5K years of history surviving invasions & internal wars- they adopted many things from China, Japan & the West but still look down upon them & all the others, incl. non-Asians.
    Aristide
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    Post  Aristide on Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:06 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:No, u r a gaijin there- i.e. foreigner that came there to spend $.
    Don't confuse politeness & hospitality with their genuine feelings. Under Tokugawa shoguns they kicked out all the Christian  priests/missionaries, killed most converts & thus prevented their nation from being colonized.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Catholic_Church_in_Japan

    The Koreans have ~5K years of history surviving invasions & internal wars- they adopted many things from China, Japan & the West but still look down upon them & all the others, incl. non-Asians.

    You were never there, i was. Wink

    Jpanese are incredible racist. They see Europeans as higher beings. They have nothing against their daughter marry a european.

    I guess you could not even spot Japan on a map.

    One thing for you, humans are in a hierarchy. And europeans are the top of mankind.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:28 pm

    You were never there, i was.
    Cut the crap from ur filthy mouth-who told u I was never there? Certailnly not me!
    As mentioned, I'm also of European background & been in both SK & Japan several times.
     
    Japanese are incredible racist. They see Europeans as higher beings.
    if they were as racist like u, they would see us as lower beings. But feeling superior doesn't prevent them to be curious of Caucasians.
    To me, it seems u r projecting ur own delustons on them to confirm ur wrongly assumed so-called superiority.
    By the same token, the Vietnamese can claim that they helped to defeat Japan & beaten Chinese, Mongols, etc. French & Americans in their area, unified their country making them superior to all of them, at least on that score.
    Aristide
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    Post  Aristide on Tue Sep 24, 2019 8:17 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    You were never there, i was.
    Cut the crap from ur filthy mouth-who told u I was never there? Certailnly not me!
    As mentioned, I'm also of European background & been in both SK & Japan several times.
     
    Japanese are incredible racist. They see Europeans as higher beings.
    if they were as racist like u, they would see us as lower beings. But feeling superior doesn't prevent them to be curious of Caucasians.
    To me, it seems u r projecting ur own delustons on them to confirm ur wrongly assumed so-called superiority.
    By the same token, the Vietnamese can claim that they helped to defeat Japan & beaten Chinese, Mongols, etc. French & Americans in their area, unified their country making them superior to all of them, at least on that score.

    I think you can call yourself lucky. By communicating with me, you communicate propably to the closest thing one could call a living god.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue Sep 24, 2019 8:54 pm

    I'm so happy, beyond words!
    I'm an Ashkenazi Jew; according to Judaism, right or wrong, we r the God's "chosen people". We gave the World the Bible, Jesus Christ, Karl Marx, D. Mendeleev, & Albert Einstein, leaving France in the dust.
    When I was an aviation electrician in the USN, sailors in that rating were called "gods", as w/o wiring, generators, lights, & other electrical/avionics components, nothing else would work on any aircraft.
    So, sit back & relax, false demigod!
    Aristide
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    Post  Aristide on Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:04 pm

    https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/macron-russia-diplomacy-eu-security-strategy-by-mark-leonard-2019-10

    President Macron made clear lately, that he works on betetr relations in trade and diplomacy with Russia. The goal is to get better relations with Russia and
    find common interests to work on.
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    Post  flamming_python on Fri Oct 04, 2019 2:53 am

    Aristide wrote:https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/macron-russia-diplomacy-eu-security-strategy-by-mark-leonard-2019-10

    President Macron made clear lately, that he works on betetr relations in trade and diplomacy with Russia. The goal is to get better relations with Russia and
    find common interests to work on.

    I have to say I respect Macron taking the initiative in all these issues; Ukraine, EU's leadership, EU-US relationship and so on.
    I would certainly welcome a France that has more say in the world - it has a very rich record of diplomacy, I remember even during the Georgian war it was Sarkozy that brokered the ceasefire agreement, not the hawks in Washington who were deliberating on whether to bomb Russian troops or not. Earlier on of course Chirac was the main face of Europe's opposition to the Iraq war (those Europeans who did oppose it; because of course most ended up participating it)

    Macron has had limited success so far but the most important thing is willpower and to be tenacious, little successes will give rise to greater ones as France's profile rises. And it will be good not just for Russia, but for the rest of the world.

    The only thing I don't like about France's policies are its politics in Africa, which are useless at best, and at worst, just end up keeping corrupt pro-French strongmen there in power who do nothing for their people. France's participation in the bombing of Libya has led to catastrophe for that country. In the same way that France can influence Russia, Russia can also influence France and discourage it from getting tied into more military adventures in places like Libya and Syria with predictably disastrous results. Russia has now taken over from France in the CAR and is helping the government there stabilize the country. In the future though I would like to see constructive Franco-Russian co-operation in Africa to stabilize the eastern side of the continent and build up some strong states there that will be able to industrialize their societies.
    But in general I see France's influence in the world as more positive than negative, and it can serve as an alternative Western pole to the US/UK and Germany.


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    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Fri Oct 04, 2019 2:55 am

    Hahahahahaha.... hilarious... he makes it sound like Russia and the west need to work on their relations, when in actual fact it was the west that broke relations with Russia over the US imposed coup in the Ukraine didn't go to plan.

    Any hostile reactions by Russia have been in response to sanctions from the west, so if the west wants to improve relations with Russia they can just stop being censored .
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    Post  flamming_python on Fri Oct 04, 2019 2:58 am

    GarryB wrote:Hahahahahaha.... hilarious... he makes it sound like Russia and the west need to work on their relations, when in actual fact it was the west that broke relations with Russia over the US imposed coup in the Ukraine didn't go to plan.

    Any hostile reactions by Russia have been in response to sanctions from the west, so if the west wants to improve relations with Russia they can just stop being censored .

    Well that's what France is trying to do, with Germany also supporting it - basically settling the war in the Ukraine, and getting back to business with Russia.

    It's the sane face of European diplomacy. Because of course the insane face of European diplomacy is the Ukraine, Georgia, Baltic States, Poland, UK, Sweden and all those others who keep butting their heads into the wall in the hopes of breaking it eventually; with the soft encouragement of Washington.
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    Post  GarryB on Fri Oct 04, 2019 7:15 am

    You are confusing Micron with France and France with Micron.

    The risk for Russia of better cooperation with Europe, is to become more like europe... which is the worst possible future for Russia.
    Aristide
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    Post  Aristide on Fri Oct 04, 2019 7:39 am

    GarryB wrote:You are confusing Micron with France and France with Micron.

    The risk for Russia of better cooperation with Europe, is to become more like europe... which is the worst possible future for Russia.

    You have no clue what you talk about. France always was firecly independend from Washington. We oppossed Iraq war. We dont join american military adventures. Have our own powerful defense industry.

    We had a weakling Hollande as president who failed our nation.

    Macron stands for France first. We dont allow micro nations like poland to dictate us foreign politics.

    Russia is europe. France and Russia have relations when your island was not even settled by maori.

    Paris, berlin, london, rome, moscow and madrid decide what matters in europe. Not warsaw and certainly not washington.
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    Post  GarryB on Fri Oct 04, 2019 11:56 am

    Micron didn't change French policy towards Russia until it was pretty clear it wasn't working and the Russians didn't collapse and fold like the other countries you mistreat.

    If you want to give him credit for anything, it would be suppressing internal protestors, and seeing which way the wind is blowing and acting on that faster than others.

    It is like Ireland with their booming economy because they have low tax rates which makes big international companies base their centre of operations there... sounds good on paper, but when things turn bad and they turn to the really big really rich companies to pay a little more tax to help the economy in tough times watch them run away and just leave you.

    Micron couldn't give a shit about Russia and if the US and NATO were invading he would not likely object... he wouldn't join in, but he would stop them either... he would stand back and then look at the results before deciding what to say... ie whose side to be on... you know... he is French.

    You don't call a strong country Cheese Eating Surrender Monkeys...

    Well that's what France is trying to do, with Germany also supporting it - basically settling the war in the Ukraine, and getting back to business with Russia.

    What is the point... the Ukrainians could poison another Russian in Britain and any new business is off again... europe is fragile and unreliable, and still basically russophobic... most of the people who agreed sanctions or renewed them are still in power... the exception being May replaced by Boris... which means russophobic stupid bitch replaced by russophobic censored .

    Yeah, I know Putin would say they are neighbours and we have to work together... yeah... the whole reason behind NATO is to counter Russia, so I would say don't create any ties you don't want to cut... use the current good will to get rid of the sanctions and then make a bit of money, but don't trust them and don't buy anything of strategic value from them either with the current leaderships.

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