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    Russian Economy General News: #4

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    Austin

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    Post  Austin on Thu May 07, 2015 8:29 am

    FORBES 2015 World Biggest Public Company ( Russia )

    http://www.forbes.com/global2000/list/#country:Russia
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    Post  KoTeMoRe on Thu May 07, 2015 8:43 am

    sepheronx wrote:
    Vann7 wrote:
    Hannibal Barca wrote:Best value for Ruble is above 60 to dollar. Worst can happen for Russian industry is oil price to go higher, 50$ is perfect. The fall of the price was an unintentional gift for Russian production.

    There have to be a balance. if Ruble in 60 it will help Russia Energy industry ,but not the
    local industry.. because any business in Russia based from US and Europe will cost more its
    products , it will be too expensive fast food , and technology too..that Russia cannot substitute .. like the things people buy more in christmast.. technology or home system entertainment..
    like a playstation or Xbox or video games , musical instruments , Flat monitors ,PCs and fashion will be more expensive that comes from the west.. and it could provoke European and American store chains to close in Russia leaving people thousands of students unemployed.    

    So i think ,a better prices of the Ruble should be in the flat 50 ,until Oil prices move beyond $75, then it should move to 45. So small business investment from the west based in fashion and technology can continue operating.  Ideally of course should be nice if Oil prices $100 again until at least end of year and later permanently have oil at $80 to $90.  And the RUble value in the 35 per dollar to attract investors.

    It is the very import industry you are talking about that has caused a lot of problems for Russia, and it is that industry that has prevented Russia from progressing their own development.  You might want to rethink your comments because you cannot complain about not doing enough for import substitution/diversification of economy, and at the same time promote the import industry.

    While that is entirely true, the Russian economy became basically largely compradore from 2000 to 2007 and didn't shift much after, the byproduct of the new sets of rules regarding oil will also mean that the RUB will appreciate. Before the RUB had a great option with the Dollar being weak (up to 35/40% of what it is now) so higher oil prices would be compensated by a lower USD. But now, you have basically an USD at 1.05 EUR and thus the real cost of the bbl is around 80 USD FY2013. Which explains the recent RUB surge. However it isn't only an oil issue, the Russian FOREX is also off the charts. In less than 6 months it variated the RUB almost 70%. Seven. Zero. This is clearly the smoking gun about how a portion of the current rich elite of Russia is inherently anti-Russian on its core. It used a very difficult moment to milk both the Russian state and the middle class (which tried also to do the same out of panic).

    What kept Russia from progressing is also the fact that cheap cash was plentiful for most Russian Biz, since they have MORE liquidities than their Euro-peer, which is what banks are after. Therefore the recent move to try and obtain RUB for oil, will naturally appreciate the Ruble and make it more difficult to control the budget issue. Before you had this great idea of being paid in reserve currency (although a very unstable one) and then when the time was right you'd play with the exchange rate to earn more. Now you are paid in RUB and can't have that luxury anymore while having all the shifts directly affect your balance.
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    Post  KoTeMoRe on Thu May 07, 2015 8:56 am

    Austin wrote:FORBES 2015 World Biggest Public Company ( Russia )

    http://www.forbes.com/global2000/list/#country:Russia

    saracasm-ON: Wow wtf those profit margins are out of the loop. Way to go for the big'uns. That my friends is the measure of corruption.

    6.5% profit margin on gas?

    Sarcasm Off.

    Very good picture of the deep practices in Russia. A former "Communist" bastion, it has evolved in such a sharks nest, totally in line with "democratic west".

    These are the kind of indicators people need to show to those who rehash the Rasha Corrrrruuuupshon playbook. It seems that Corruption isn't worse in nature than am Westen.

    Side note, it is very interesting to see how low the market value of Russian companies is when compared to others. Market "realities"...
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    Post  higurashihougi on Thu May 07, 2015 9:18 am

    KoTeMoRe wrote:Sarcasm Off.

    Very good picture of the deep practices in Russia. A former "Communist" bastion, it has evolved in such a sharks nest, totally in line with "democratic west".

    These are the kind of indicators people need to show to those who rehash the Rasha Corrrrruuuupshon playbook. It seems that Corruption isn't worse in nature than am Westen.

    Side note, it is very interesting to see how low the market value of Russian companies is when compared to others. Market "realities"..

    Dunno if I correctly understand your opinion. But sharks nest already developed in the old USSR when corrupted goverment officers and party memebers tried to expolited their authorities for money and wealth.

    After Stalin died, the battlefield commanders allied with Khruschyov and organized a coup to topple the Scientist-Industrial-Development faction of Stalin. Using the mask of destalinization, the battlefield commander solidified their position established the military dictactorship in Russia.

    As far as I hear, a number of industrial-scientist leaders who were Stalin's protegees are being persecuted by the military commanders. For example, Beria was executed and his crimes were carefully emphasized an excuse. Or Mikoyan was forced into a retirement after he finished the first prototype of MiG-29.

    Khruschyov was toppled by Stalinists in 1964. But shark nest of the military dictactorship still existed and it became worsen under Brezhnev regime, until the USSR collapsed in 1991.
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Thu May 07, 2015 9:49 am

    KoTeMoRe wrote:

    Side note, it is very interesting to see how low the market value of Russian companies is when compared to others. Market "realities"...

    Of course not, they would have to be leveraged in astronomical, bubblicious and unsustainable levels of derivatives and securities for them to be as valuable as US Shale companies...mind the same geniuses at Forbes, The Economist, etc. were predicting the Shale Revolution would de-throne Russian gas, but now that Shale pipe-dream is completely imploding with the US Shale market in a massive $200 billion hole of unsustainable debt.
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    Post  KoTeMoRe on Thu May 07, 2015 9:49 am

    higurashihougi wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:Sarcasm Off.

    Very good picture of the deep practices in Russia. A former "Communist" bastion, it has evolved in such a sharks nest, totally in line with "democratic west".

    These are the kind of indicators people need to show to those who rehash the Rasha Corrrrruuuupshon playbook. It seems that Corruption isn't worse in nature than am Westen.

    Side note, it is very interesting to see how low the market value of Russian companies is when compared to others. Market "realities"..

    Dunno if I correctly understand your opinion. But sharks nest already developed in the old USSR when corrupted goverment officers and party memebers tried to expolited their authorities for money and wealth.

    After Stalin died, the battlefield commanders allied with Khruschyov and organized a coup to topple the Scientist-Industrial-Development faction of Stalin. Using the mask of destalinization, the battlefield commander solidified their position established the military dictactorship in Russia.

    As far as I hear, a number of industrial-scientist leaders who were Stalin's protegees are being persecuted by the military commanders. For example, Beria was executed and his crimes were carefully emphasized an excuse. Or Mikoyan was forced into a retirement after he finished the first prototype of MiG-29.

    Khruschyov was toppled by Stalinists in 1964. But shark nest of the military dictactorship still existed and it became worsen under Brezhnev regime, until the USSR collapsed in 1991.

    The problem is that Russia is a different sharks nest than back then. You don't need to come straight of Party School to make it big in Russia today. That's the idea. A "Free Russia" with all that Dictatorial Past, seems to have actually cleaned its act if we are to base ourself on this data. It has the same level of profitability than its western counterparts (usually more assets) and has many +10bln worth of sale businesses out there with PROFITS.

    Hardly a corrupt rundown place with state picked corporations...
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    Post  KoTeMoRe on Thu May 07, 2015 9:50 am

    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:

    Side note, it is very interesting to see how low the market value of Russian companies is when compared to others. Market "realities"...

    Of course not, they would have to be leveraged in astronomical, bubblicious and unsustainable levels of derivatives and securities for them to be as valuable as US Shale companies...mind the same geniuses at Forbes, The Economist, etc. were predicting the Shale Revolution would de-throne Russian gas, but now that Shale pipe-dream is completely imploding with the US Shale market in a massive $200 billion hole of unsustainable debt.

    Shale is life...etc clown
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    Post  higurashihougi on Thu May 07, 2015 10:00 am

    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:

    Side note, it is very interesting to see how low the market value of Russian companies is when compared to others. Market "realities"...

    Of course not, they would have to be leveraged in astronomical, bubblicious and unsustainable levels of derivatives and securities for them to be as valuable as US Shale companies...mind the same geniuses at Forbes, The Economist, etc. were predicting the Shale Revolution would de-throne Russian gas, but now that Shale pipe-dream is completely imploding with the US Shale market in a massive $200 billion hole of unsustainable debt.

    Shale is life...etc clown

    Ah yeah, Divine Shale Oil of Obama: http://russia-insider.com/en/ukraine-slashes-gas-purchases-europe-doubles-imports-russia/ri6527

    To be honest I don't know why at the moment there are some people who still believe in that. I met some of them. Can't fathom that.

    Edit: I made a mistake in the previous post. Mikoyan was retired after he made the prototype of MiG-25, not MiG-29.
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    Post  kvs on Thu May 07, 2015 3:27 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    Austin wrote:FORBES 2015 World Biggest Public Company ( Russia )

    http://www.forbes.com/global2000/list/#country:Russia

    saracasm-ON: Wow wtf those profit margins are out of the loop. Way to go for the big'uns. That my friends is the measure of corruption.

    6.5% profit margin on gas?

    Sarcasm Off.

    Very good picture of the deep practices in Russia. A former "Communist" bastion, it has evolved in such a sharks nest, totally in line with "democratic west".

    These are the kind of indicators people need to show to those who rehash the Rasha Corrrrruuuupshon playbook. It seems that Corruption isn't worse in nature than am Westen.

    Side note, it is very interesting to see how low the market value of Russian companies is when compared to others. Market "realities"...

    The market valuation of Gazprom is transcendentally ludicrous. It makes its market valuation in less than three years in term of profits. Laughing

    Gazprom PE ratio: 15.25%

    Exxon PE ratio: 13.24%
    Exxon revenue $372.8 billion
    Exxon market cap: $369.9 billion

    So Exxon makes 2.36 times more income than Gazprom but has a market capitalization which is 5.92 times higher even though Gazprom has a
    higher PE ratio. This demonstrates that there is no such thing as a free market in the west. It is a politically conformant market steered by
    special interests.
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    Post  kvs on Thu May 07, 2015 3:36 pm

    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:

    Side note, it is very interesting to see how low the market value of Russian companies is when compared to others. Market "realities"...

    Of course not, they would have to be leveraged in astronomical, bubblicious and unsustainable levels of derivatives and securities for them to be as valuable as US Shale companies...mind the same geniuses at Forbes, The Economist, etc. were predicting the Shale Revolution would de-throne Russian gas, but now that Shale pipe-dream is completely imploding with the US Shale market in a massive $200 billion hole of unsustainable debt.

    BS rating agencies such as Standard and Poor's and Moody's impose a lot of influence on the choices of stock buyers. They
    systematically undervalue Russian assets and exaggerate the risks. They are two bit political hack operations but they
    have established reputations in the west. Most stock buyers are lemmings. I know a family where the wife is basically a day
    trader and it is clear that they are successful at the stock market game. According to the husband the pattern is that investors
    buy high and sell low. Seriously, they do the opposite of what they should be doing. They just respond to herding instinct
    like lemmings. In this environment the BS rating agencies wield enormous power.
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    Post  KoTeMoRe on Thu May 07, 2015 4:01 pm

    kvs wrote:
    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:

    Side note, it is very interesting to see how low the market value of Russian companies is when compared to others. Market "realities"...

    Of course not, they would have to be leveraged in astronomical, bubblicious and unsustainable levels of derivatives and securities for them to be as valuable as US Shale companies...mind the same geniuses at Forbes, The Economist, etc. were predicting the Shale Revolution would de-throne Russian gas, but now that Shale pipe-dream is completely imploding with the US Shale market in a massive $200 billion hole of unsustainable debt.

    BS rating agencies such as Standard and Poor's and Moody's impose a lot of influence on the choices of stock buyers.  They
    systematically undervalue Russian assets and exaggerate the risks.   They are two bit political hack operations but they
    have established reputations in the west.   Most stock buyers are lemmings.  I know a family where the wife is basically a day
    trader and it is clear that they are successful at the stock market game.  According to the husband the pattern is that investors
    buy high and sell low.  Seriously, they do the opposite of what they should be doing.   They just respond to herding instinct
    like lemmings.  In this environment the BS rating agencies wield enormous power.

    I'd say that it is a circle. My banker usually either puts the white gloves and washes me with "proven" Western stocks (Hello Nokia), or offers little incentive to check out from current western oriented portfolios. On the same time, many other people have invited me to check out other assets and as a fact, I know they are making a killing, notably in Africa. However unlike them I don't have the kind of money to recoup losses from adventures gone awry, so for now, I only cheer from the sidelines.
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    Post  Viktor on Thu May 07, 2015 8:52 pm

    Nice  thumbsup

    Russia's international reserves rose by $ 5 billion

    India to allow projects on the Russian shelf in the Arctic

    and ....

    Gazprom, Ankara agree to start Turkish Stream gas deliveries in Dec 2016

    and perhaps the most important

    New Iran Port Deal Paves Way for Russia-India Corridor


    Except for EU fags it seems that no one listens to the US anymore Very Happy

    India signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran on Wednesday which would allow it to build a port in Iran. The agreement took place despite US warnings against deals with Iran before the nuclear agreement is reached before the deadline on June 30.
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    Post  Neutrality on Thu May 07, 2015 10:47 pm

    Putin is lobbying like hell for Russian economic interests. It's sad that these radical oppositionists don't understand it.
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    Post  Cyberspec on Fri May 08, 2015 9:44 am

    This is pretty important news as well...

    Russia and China will create a credit Fund of two billion dollars

    Russia and China will create a credit Fund for the development of Russian business. With the help of such institution in the Russian economy in the next three years could receive approximately $ 20 billion.

    As a result of an agreement between China Construction Bank Corporation and the Russian direct investment Fund (RDIF) domestic business will have access to the Chinese lending market. Chinese can increase lending to the Russian economy several times. "We hope to attract to the Russian economy $ 20 billion over three years", - told RBC head of RDIF Kirill Dmitriev.

    Most of these funds will be used for the development of agriculture. Such an agreement expected to be signed during the visit of the President XI Jinping in our country.

    The Fund will give money in the form of so-called mezzanine lending on relatively small part, and the rest will be issued by Chinese banks. So, if any of the Russian business wants to attract a billion dollars, the Fund will Finance $ 100 million, and the rest will give the Chinese banks...

    full report: https://z5h64q92x9.net/proxy_u/ru-en.en/www.rg.ru/2015/05/08/china-site.html
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    Post  KoTeMoRe on Fri May 08, 2015 9:49 am

    Oy Vey more Israeli-styled connections?

    I hope this time it is better controlled, because the mezzanine loans, which were a part of the Israeli smash and grab in Ukraine and Russia (albeit in a smaller scale) were typically screens for the mob back then.

    I hope this is the real deal.
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    Post  Karl Haushofer on Fri May 08, 2015 10:35 am

    Neutrality wrote:Putin is lobbying like hell for Russian economic interests. It's sad that these radical oppositionists don't understand it.
    Maybe they understand it and that's the reason they hate him?


    Last edited by Karl Haushofer on Fri May 08, 2015 2:04 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  Cyberspec on Fri May 08, 2015 10:43 am

    KoTeMoRe wrote:Oy Vey more Israeli-styled connections?

    I hope this time it is better controlled, because the mezzanine loans, which were a part of the Israeli smash and grab in Ukraine and Russia (albeit in a smaller scale) were typically screens for the mob back then.

    I hope this is the real deal.

    I don't think these are short term "raider" type plans....China has huge long term plans for Eurasia.....but we'll see I guess
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Fri May 08, 2015 6:30 pm

    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    Neutrality wrote:Putin is lobbying like hell for Russian economic interests. It's sad that these radical oppositionists don't understand it.
    Maybe they understand it and that's the reason they hate him?

    Remember to introduce yourself in the member introduction forum.
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    Post  Viktor on Fri May 08, 2015 9:39 pm

    Nice thumbsup

    Russia, China agree to integrate Eurasian Union, Silk Road, sign deals

    China will also invest $5.8 billion in the construction of the Moscow-Kazan High Speed Railway, the Russian President said.

    Russia’s largest gas producer Gazprom and China’s National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) signed an agreement on the basic conditions of gas supplies from Russia to China through the Western route. The agreement provides for the construction of the first, second and third Altai pipelines.

    Sberbank – Russia’s biggest lender - has signed a facility agreement with China’s Development Bank in the amount of $966 million. They also agreed on financing an industrial project by Sberbank to the tune of $256.4 million

    Russia's state-owned VTB Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China signed a $483.2 million loan facility agreement to finance trading operations between Russia and China.

    An agreement to create a leasing company which will promote the sale of the Russian Sukhoi Superjet-100 passenger planes to the Chinese and South-East Asian markets over the next three years has been set up

    Russia and China will also develop a new heavy helicopter, called the Advanced Heavy Lift

    Earlier on Friday, Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), the Russia-China Investment Fund (RCIF) and the People’s Government of Heilongjiang Province agreed to launch a $2 billion fund targeting investment in agricultural projects in both countries

    The share of Chinese investment in Russia may soon reach 20 percent and amount to 40 percent in the medium to long-term, according to the CEO of RDIF Kirill Dmitriev.


    and last but not the least Very Happy

    RFPI and CCB draw in Russia $ 20-25 billion from China
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    Post  Neutrality on Fri May 08, 2015 10:42 pm

    The news about the construction of the railroad between Kazan - Moscow and extra orders of SSJ-100 are the most exciting IMHO. The big railroad project alone should provide a ton of jobs while OAC (SSJ-100 producer) could attract those specialists from companies who are "optimizing" their work force.
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    Post  kvs on Sat May 09, 2015 12:25 am

    Neutrality wrote:The news about the construction of the railroad between Kazan - Moscow and extra orders of SSJ-100 are the most exciting IMHO. The big railroad project alone should provide a ton of jobs while OAC (SSJ-100 producer) could attract those specialists from companies who are "optimizing" their work force.

    If the partnership between Russia and China works out, then it will be the worst nightmare for the Atlanticists. They have been trying
    to draw China into their orbit since the 1970s. It really looked like they succeeded. But now we have a much less clear picture.
    The economic power of China+Russia will transform the whole of Asia and eventually Africa and Europe. The Europeans will have
    the decaying "hyperpower" and a growing market of almost 5 billion people to choose from.
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    Post  max steel on Mon May 11, 2015 2:44 pm

    New data shows that Russia's economic slump is continuing to snowball, with GDP falling by 3.4 percent in March 2015, up from 1.2 percent in February. As real salaries shrink, the population is cutting spending and looking to safeguard savings. Economists predict that Russia will not be able to arrest the slump in the economy until the end of 2015. Suspect

    Newly-published information indicates that in March 2015 the volume of Russia's GDP decreased year-on-year by 3.4 percent, the Russian business newspaper RBK Daily has reported. The data from the Ministry of Economic Development, released in early May, shows that in comparison with February 2015 the pace of the economy's year-on-year shrinkage was almost three times less, at 1.2 percent.
    "The acceleration of Russia's GDP fall in March is related to the high level of inflation pressure and expensive credit, which is having a negative effect on the dynamics of the country's economy," says Alexei Kozlov, chief analyst at UFS IC.
    The forecast for inflation in 2015 is 11.9 percent, while the Central Bank's key rate, which private banks use as a reference point, was 12.5 percent at the beginning of May.

    End of a cycle

    According to the information from the Ministry of Economic Development, the fall of real salaries is also continuing to accelerate. After a 7.4-percent reduction in February they dropped by another 9.3 percent in March. Meanwhile, the volume of work in the construction sector fell by 6.7 percent in March, which is the worst result since July 2014, says the ministry’s monitoring report.
    The ministry had earlier made slight improvements to its economic outlook for 2015, forecasting the economy to shrink by 2.8 percent instead of the previously predicted 3-percent fall in GDP.

    Meanwhile, data from the Russian Statistics Service indicates that the population has responded to the reduction of real salaries by beginning to actively save money. According to the data, in the first quarter of 2015 Russians spent 78.1 percent of their earnings on buying goods and services, while during the same period in 2014 the percentage was 82.3. Meanwhile, the purchasing of securities has doubled in respect to the first quarter of 2014 – a clear indicator that Russians have begun taking saving more seriously.


    Economists believe that the fall in GDP is also due to cyclical problems. "The recession in Russia as a whole resembles more the acceleration of the decline in the final phase of an economic cycle," says Anton Soroko, analyst at Finam Investment Holding.

    In his view, the economy is suffering from a number of factors, including the stagnation of the real sector as a result of the fall of oil prices and a decline in investment activity related to the growth of credit costs. Additionally, the growth of geopolitical risks and instability on financial markets is also influencing companies' investment activity.


    According to Soroko, it is still too early to say that the Russian economy has bottomed out: This may not occur until the second half of 2015.
    Outlooks for the future . Russian analysts believe that the country’s economy will continue to contract in the near future. "The fall of GDP will continue, but not substantially," says Boris Pivovar, senior professor in the Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. "During the spring and summer retail usually falls, especially sales of home appliances and automobiles."


    Pivovar points out that exports of oil and gas are also usually lower in the summer than in the winter months, and in the current political conditions a surge in sales and contracts is unlikely. "The negative trend will change in the fall-winter, when gas exports will pick up, especially to Ukraine, and the construction projects will have finished after the summer season," he says.

    Consequently, Pivovar predicts a short-term inertial fall in the first, second and third quarters and a substantial growth in GDP by 0.5-1.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, as the traditional winter boost in the retail sector revives commerce.

    UFS IC analyst Alexei Kozlov, meanwhile, forecasts a slowdown in the pace of the growth of consumer prices as the ruble continues to stabilize, which will lower the cost of credit, letting steam out of the economy and stabilizing GDP dynamics.


    http://in.rbth.com/economics/2015/05/08/russian_gdp_decline_gathers_pace_43025.html
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    Post  KoTeMoRe on Mon May 11, 2015 2:53 pm

    max steel wrote:New data shows that Russia's economic slump is continuing to snowball, with GDP falling by 3.4 percent in March 2015, up from 1.2 percent in February. As real salaries shrink, the population is cutting spending and looking to safeguard savings. Economists predict that Russia will not be able to arrest the slump in the economy until the end of 2015. Suspect

    Newly-published information indicates that in March 2015 the volume of Russia's GDP decreased year-on-year by 3.4 percent, the Russian business newspaper RBK Daily has reported. The data from the Ministry of Economic Development, released in early May, shows that in comparison with February 2015 the pace of the economy's year-on-year shrinkage was almost three times less, at 1.2 percent.
    "The acceleration of Russia's GDP fall in March is related to the high level of inflation pressure and expensive credit, which is having a negative effect on the dynamics of the country's economy," says Alexei Kozlov, chief analyst at UFS IC.
    The forecast for inflation in 2015 is 11.9 percent, while the Central Bank's key rate, which private banks use as a reference point, was 12.5 percent at the beginning of May.

    End of a cycle

    According to the information from the Ministry of Economic Development, the fall of real salaries is also continuing to accelerate. After a 7.4-percent reduction in February they dropped by another 9.3 percent in March. Meanwhile, the volume of work in the construction sector fell by 6.7 percent in March, which is the worst result since July 2014, says the ministry’s monitoring report.
    The ministry had earlier made slight improvements to its economic outlook for 2015, forecasting the economy to shrink by 2.8 percent instead of the previously predicted 3-percent fall in GDP.

    Meanwhile, data from the Russian Statistics Service indicates that the population has responded to the reduction of real salaries by beginning to actively save money. According to the data, in the first quarter of 2015 Russians spent 78.1 percent of their earnings on buying goods and services, while during the same period in 2014 the percentage was 82.3. Meanwhile, the purchasing of securities has doubled in respect to the first quarter of 2014 – a clear indicator that Russians have begun taking saving more seriously.


    Economists believe that the fall in GDP is also due to cyclical problems. "The recession in Russia as a whole resembles more the acceleration of the decline in the final phase of an economic cycle," says Anton Soroko, analyst at Finam Investment Holding.

    In his view, the economy is suffering from a number of factors, including the stagnation of the real sector as a result of the fall of oil prices and a decline in investment activity related to the growth of credit costs. Additionally, the growth of geopolitical risks and instability on financial markets is also influencing companies' investment activity.


    According to Soroko, it is still too early to say that the Russian economy has bottomed out: This may not occur until the second half of 2015.
    Outlooks for the future . Russian analysts believe that the country’s economy will continue to contract in the near future. "The fall of GDP will continue, but not substantially," says Boris Pivovar, senior professor in the Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. "During the spring and summer retail usually falls, especially sales of home appliances and automobiles."


    Pivovar points out that exports of oil and gas are also usually lower in the summer than in the winter months, and in the current political conditions a surge in sales and contracts is unlikely. "The negative trend will change in the fall-winter, when gas exports will pick up, especially to Ukraine, and the construction projects will have finished after the summer season," he says.

    Consequently, Pivovar predicts a short-term inertial fall in the first, second and third quarters and a substantial growth in GDP by 0.5-1.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, as the traditional winter boost in the retail sector revives commerce.

    UFS IC analyst Alexei Kozlov, meanwhile, forecasts a slowdown in the pace of the growth of consumer prices as the ruble continues to stabilize, which will lower the cost of credit, letting steam out of the economy and stabilizing GDP dynamics.


    http://in.rbth.com/economics/2015/05/08/russian_gdp_decline_gathers_pace_43025.html

    Nothing new.Pretty small price for Crimea.
    NationalRus
    NationalRus

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    Post  NationalRus on Mon May 11, 2015 2:57 pm

    it is a very small price for our land but we need this damn economic reforms badly, all i see is desperate talks "about" the reforms but no reforms themselfs.... like always Rolling Eyes and its not like 3 weeks have passed... a fucking years has gone by

    last time i heard putin say to a minister that beurocracy should be nearly completly eliminated to start a new business but did actaully somthing happened? nah
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx on Mon May 11, 2015 5:01 pm

    NationalRus wrote:it is a very small price for our land but we need this damn economic reforms badly, all i see is desperate talks "about" the reforms but no reforms themselfs.... like always Rolling Eyes and its not like 3 weeks have passed... a fucking years has gone by

    last time i heard putin say to a minister that beurocracy should be nearly completly eliminated to start a new business but did actaully somthing happened? nah

    But that isnt the issue here. The issue here is people are not spending money and credit interests are too high.

    They say real wages dropped, but how do they determin this? I doubt they took pay cuts, and I highly doubt it is based upon forex. So if they are comparing it to inflation, then welcome to the western lifestyle, where inflation always goes up higher than wages. If they just say "well, we are only making $500 a month rather than $1000 because our ruble dropped in value....", is a very wrong interpretation.

    What people dont realise is if your hoard money, amd not spent, companies lose money, people lose jobs, less taxable income, meams loss of services.

    Most reforms anywhere dont revert to anything. Putin can lambast all he wants, and fire politicans and what not, but it wont solve anything. And while many new small private companies have been opening up and new enterprises opening new production, there is still a drop, so it is something else. I would also look at the average worker/employer and go after them too. How much money is lost in under the table transactions? Statistically people have reduced pay, but how much of that is just official wages vs being paid under the table? Russia is a nation where the black economy is valued by $90B two years ago. Probably higher now.

    Russia needs to, imo, move to a domestic consumption priority economy. You wont be able to sell everything outside, so it is far better to try and sell your own goods to your people and neighbours whom are interested as well. I see another big one, is reduced sales in exports....

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