The Situation in the Ukraine. #23

The minutes detailing the Ukrainian government’s actions a week after the so-called "revolution of dignity" have been released:

http://komnbo.rada.gov.ua/komnbo/control/uk/publish/article?art_id=53495&cat_id=44731

Article on it in English: "West told Ukraine to abandon Crimea, Document says" talk about a misleading title

https://euobserver.com/foreign/132425

Yatsenyuk went on to say it’s “a pity” that the US Sixth Fleet pulled back two warships which had been stationed in the Black Sea, in a sign of Western intentions.

Asked by Turchynov if Nato is “afraid” to help Ukraine, the PM replied: “In today's environment, clearly.”

“I don’t think that any country, including those of the Budapest Memorandum, will be willing to help Ukraine,” Yatsenyuk said, referring to a 1994 treaty in which France, the UK, and the US had promised to protect Ukraine in return for its dismantling of its nuclear arsenal.

He said Western states want to avoid “a military conflict with Russia in the middle of Europe ... we have to cope on our own.”

He added that if Ukraine declared a state of emergency or state of war, then Russia would take it as meaning that it’s “declaring war on Russia.”

“Right after we do this, there will be a Russian statement on ‘defending Russian citizens and Russian speakers who have ethnic ties with Russia.’ That’s the script the Russians have written,” he said.

and another: "Behind Closed Doors: Ukraine's Panicked Meeting Ahead Of Crimean Seizure"

http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-crimea-seizure-panicked-meeting/27569836.html

'Demoralized' Servicemen

Ukrainian servicemen in Crimea were "demoralized," and many had not accepted the new government that came to power after President Viktor Yanukovych fled the country. This according to Valentyn Nalyvaychenko, chairman of Ukrainian Security Service (SBU), who argued at the meeting that the troops were not prepared to carry out Kyiv’s orders.

He also said that many in the military had already betrayed their oath to Ukraine, a charge backed by Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, who said 67 Ukrainian riot policemen had defected to the Russian side.

Members of the council acknowledged that the Ukrainian military was debilitated, despite the fact that there were 15,000 Ukrainian troops in Crimea. "The majority among the military are contracted locally --service means money to them," said acting Defense Minister Ihor Tenyukh. "A maximum of 1,500-2,000 troops are ready to execute an order involving the use of weapons."

It was revealed that only 5,000 servicemen in Ukraine were available to carry out combat missions. "We can send them to Crimea, but it won’t solve the problem of Crimea," said Tenyukh. "We will simply get them killed there."

Khepesh wrote:Front line hospital in ukrops occupied Severodonetsk told to prepare for mass casualties according to a doctor from the hospital. http://dnr24.com/main/19630-bolnicy-severodonecka-veroyatno-gotovyatsya-k-massovomu-priemu-ranenyh-boycov-vsu-istochnik.html

They better...

At this point in time Novorossia has better defense team than OJ Simpson.

PapaDragon wrote:

Khepesh wrote:Front line hospital in ukrops occupied Severodonetsk told to prepare for mass casualties according to a doctor from the hospital. http://dnr24.com/main/19630-bolnicy-severodonecka-veroyatno-gotovyatsya-k-massovomu-priemu-ranenyh-boycov-vsu-istochnik.html

They better...

At this point in time Novorossia has better defense team than OJ Simpson.

LMAO

He has said it, so it is news, but from the loony asylum. Yanukovich has said he will return to Ukraine as president. http://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/2707808 But looking to the future, if Ukraine survives into 2017, the next president will be appointed by Clinton, if she has time for such trivialities in between making sure that others connected to Whitewater follow Vince Foster to the grave and starting WWIII

This will be warmly welcomed, so to speak

Head of the National Commission of Ukraine for Energy, Housing and Utilities Services Regulation (NCER) Dmytro Vovk forecasts that the so-called social price of gas for households – a discounted price for the first 200 cubic meters of gas consumed by households during the heating season – will be increased by 53%, or UAH 1,900, to UAH 5,500 per 1,000 cubic meters with VAT from April 1, 2016.

"Under a memorandum with the International Monetary Fund, the price should be revised upwards from April 1 to achieve 70% import parity for the population and municipal heating companies… I estimate that as of April 1 the full price (set at UAH 7,188 per 1,000 cubic meters) will slightly slide by up to 10%, and the discounted, 'social' price will go to UAH 5,500 per 1,000 cubic meters with VAT," he told journalists at Adam Smith Conferences' Ukrainian Energy Forum in Kyiv on Tuesday.

Under the gas market law, it is the Cabinet of Ministers that should green-light the increase in the 'social' price of gas for households and gas prices for municipal heating companies, he said. In his words, it is already late for the government to approve the new prices so that the heating companies could introduce them as of April 1 in keeping with the existing procedure. "Therefore we would suggest that the decision be taken, but the new gas prices for municipal heating companies be introduced from a new heating season," he added.

Vovk estimates that with the new gas prices, the heating tariffs for households may grow by 80% more on the average.

A couple of mine related posts from Interfax this morning.

A Ukrainian army vehicle hit a mine on the road between Novotoshkivske and Hirske in Luhansk region on Tuesday. According to the preliminary information, three people were killed and two more injured, the Luhansk Regional Military-Civilian Administration has said. "A vehicle carrying servicemen from the 80th brigade was blown up on the road between residential areas of Novotoshkivske and Hirske today, on March 1. According to the preliminary information, three servicemen were killed and two suffered injuries," the administration wrote on Facebook. "Circumstances of the tragic incident are being investigated," head of the Luhansk region military-civilian administration Heorhiy Tuka said.



Considerable financial resources and no less than ten to fifteen years are required for the complete mine clearance in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, head of the group coordinating bomb-threat response of the Department of Environmental Safety and Mine Action of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Colonel Serhiy Zubarevsky has said. "I think that the clearance of Donbas will cost more than one billion hryvnias. We will be able to speak about the full security for citizens there in ten to fifteen years," he said on the air of the Hromadske Radio on Sunday evening.

I'll leave this here...

magnumcromagnon wrote:I'll leave this here...

IF you really think Poroshenko is a nazi ,then you are not following what is happening
in Ukraine behind the scenes . Who controls kiev. Poroshenko is a puppet of the US state department . is a simple as that. like everyone in the Ukraine government. You can only
be in power in kiev by licking the americans boot and offering loyalty to their policies.
And which are American policies? To Use Ukraine as a wedge to cut the relations between
Europe and Russia . They use Ukraine to weaken the Russian economy and all this Nazi theme
is done to provoke Russia.  They will have awarded Communist with the Heroe medal.. if Russia was very anti communist nation and pro Nazis.  So is a game.

The nazis old man is real , he is genuine . but the whole Poroshenko government worship of Galicians and Nazis is simply to provoke Russia into a war with Ukraine.Poroshenko knows his survival and his own family life depends on his loyalty to American Imperialism and anti Russian stance. is psycological warfare. This is not different that the baby Russian cake ,that Ukrainians were using.  The role of the CIA is to turn Ukraine into the most Rusophobic nation possible. To keep the hostilities betwee both nations Ukraine and RUssia going forever. and this is where US congress NGOs comes to the rescue. that directly finance Right Sector to terrorize civilians. Losers with baseball bats walking all day on the streets of Kharkiv and odessa ,that do not work..but with brand new European cars . So being hostile to Russia ,is actually the ideal candidate they hire and finance to help promote anti Russian hysteria among new generations of ukrainians. Said in other words the CIA and US Congress invest billions dollars in Ukraine ,to promote hate against Russians.

Because Russia promte christians.. the americans hire a muslin President ,that make alliance with radical muslins with contacts with the chechens that Russia fight.
Because Russia is pro family , Americans promote anti family and gay rights in Europe. Is all
about making as incompatible as possible Europe and Russia ,so they never unite. So the invasion of muslins to Europe is an american Policy. No European leader likes it..but for being
colonies of the US empire they need to obey.

I will not be surprised ,that when the Americans no longer can finance their criminal thugs and
keep the country united. that they will allow Ukraine to disband in parts and helping Right sector into power.. activate their financed Death Squads (possibly criminals recruited from jails) and will start ethnic cleansing of ethnic Russians across all Ukraine cities. Odessa Massacre style, With the aim to force Russia army to invade and weaken even more their economy .

This however will not be without consequences ,because Europe knows what is American game
in Ukraine..and it could blowback in their faces..if The Europeans rebel against their master for no longer tolerating American promoted violence and then do the most courageous decision in their lives and create an economic and military alliance with Russia ,to restore order in Ukraine. That will be totally the opposite of the Isolation that Americans intended to create for Russia. and Risk them become the ones isolated in the world by lifting all sanctions against Russia and helping Russia to counter American sanctions. Europe and Russia united can truly counter
US imperialism ,and the Americans are very afraid of that. because such alliance will truly end the dominance of US dollar in the world ,once no longer Europe use dollars and create a major economic partnership with Russia. it will be the final nail in the coffin of US imperialism.

Amazing report on Fortrus. Basically they are pointing out that Russian owned banks are seriously increasing their investments in Ukraine, virtually all of which are commercial not domestic. This is starting to put them in a pretty powerful position especially with the forthcoming sale of Ukrainian Government owned assets, much of which could end up, one way or another, in Russian hands as Western investors, who do not understand the place as the Russians do and are watching the concerns of the IMF, will be very wary of putting money in.

Some might view this as another way in which the Russians have exploited the events of the last couple of years, others might suggest that there has been a Russian hand behind it all the time, right from the time that $3B loan was structured in London. Whichever it was, it is clear that Moscow has no intention of reducing its influence in Ukraine. As I have mentioned before, there must be a prospect of assets paying off that loan, the timing is bang on. The Russians are playing the IMF at their own game. The deeper you think about it the more cleverness and cunning you uncover. Whoever is running this project in Moscow is playing a blinder.

Several banks in Kiev were vandalized on February 20th. A day later the same thing happened in Lvov. They all had one thing in common — the origin. The parent structure of all the affected banks had Russian roots. Actually, today it is difficult and unsafe for the Russian banks to work in Ukraine, and yet Russia is the only country that seriously increases its weight in the Ukrainian banking market. And this is despite the so-called war against it on the part of Kiev. So what's the deal? What is behind the peaceful takeover of the Ukrainian banking sector by Russia?

The Maidan, a coup, two years of the so-called “war with Russia”, the persecution against everything Russian and threats of direct violence. All this, apparently, should have squeezed the Russian banking capital from Ukraine, a country that declared a new economic course complete cutting ties with its Eastern neighbor. However, the reader will be astonished to learn the real state of affairs. The Russian banking capital rushed to Ukraine in an endless stream.

The rest is at http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/03/ukrainian-banking-sector-is-becoming.html

Ukrainian Hummer was ambushed by DNR forces, 3 wounded Ukrainian soldiers as an aftermach:

Tarp doors...

We talked about ukrops having to pay Textron to upgrade these things but yet again ukrops no pay.

''Ko ne plati na mostu platice na cupriji'' Serbian proverb, basically ''pay now or pay even more later''

We should all invest in Textron stocks methinks...

Yup, THAT Golden Horde....

Embassy of Mongolia Confirms Demand From Kiev for Reparations

http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/03/embassy-of-mongolia-confirms-demand.html

The press attaché of the Embassy of Russia in Mongolia, Lhagvasuren Namsrai, has confirmed the information about the country's Parliament receiving an official letter from the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine with the requirement to pay compensation for the destruction of Kiev by the troops of Batu Khan.

"The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine wrote an official letter to the State Great Khural (our Parliament) that said in the thirteenth century Batu Khan (Golden Horde, the grandson of Genghis Khan) organized the genocide of the Ukrainian people. Ukrainians demand the payment of compensation. Both Russian and Mongolian websites have written about it", said Namsrai on the 29th February in an interview with radio station "Vesti FM".

"Then our correspondent asked our Chairman of the State Great Hural: the letter is factual? And our Chairman of the State Great Hural replied that, generally, in the history of the Middle ages it was the Kievan Rus, the Ukrainian State did not exist then. But if the Verkhovna Rada writes all the names of the Ukrainian citizens who died as a result of genocide, and their families, we will be ready to pay", — said the press attaché.

As a reminder, in May of 2015, the TV channels "Ren TV", "Star" and several other news agencies reported that the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted the resolution "On the genocide of the Ukrainian people in the 13th century by the criminal regime of the Mongol Empire" and sent to the Mongolian authorities the requirement to pay compensation for the destruction of Kiev. Meanwhile some agencies reported the announcement as a prank.

The Chairman of the Khural, Zandaahuugiyn Enkhbold, called the resolution of the Ukrainian Parliament "a propaganda cliche of Ukraine concerning Mongolia". "The world did not know and never heard about any Ukrainian nation, especially in the era of the heirs of the Great Temujin, he said. — Millions of dead Ukrainians in the thirteenth century is the fruit of an unhealthy imagination of Ukrainian deputies".

Enkhbold added that "Mongolia is ready to pay damages in the capture of Kiev by Batu Khan, but only to the victims or their families". "We look forward to announcing the full list of victims", — said the Chairman of the Khural.

So I guess that happened.....

404

Six part account of the fighting at Logvinovo, all Russian. There is criticism about this account, tho mainly about style, and that some arrogant snobs say that "normal guy" cannot write in such a way. Clearly they conveniently forget that Mozgovoi was competant at writing poetry and that Leo Tolstoy was a front line soldier before he was a writer. http://chervonec-001.livejournal.com/1169389.html Links to the other five parts are on the first link and there are some original photos, tho some are misplaced in time and location and this is pointed out but not yet corrected in the article.

Also Zakharchenko has given an interview about Uglegorsk and Debaltsevo to Vladislav Shurigin. It is necessary to read between the lines of what Zakharchenko says as he is being cautious and not telling the full story. He says, in slightly disconnected way, that he had barely 300 volunteers at Uglegorsk against 1000 ukrops, and at the assault on Debaltsevo the combined forces of DNR and LNR were 1000 against 3000 ukrops, and that is just in the city as there were more than 6000 in the entire kettle. He also admits that he was hard pressed by his subordinate commanders to be allowed into action, and he explains that some body had to be flank protection. He also says that if the fighting had continued for another three or four more days than it did before Minsk-2 was signed, then a lot more territory could have been taken.

He does not talk about why the entire operation took one month instead of one week, tho he has previously stated it was due to comms and some training problems. And, clearly aimed at skeptics who may question how this was all done by so few men, he uses the example of Givi at Illovaisk where his comapny of 117 men took and held the city against 3000 ukrops in two brigade groups with all their armor and artillery, and that Givi lost half his men as dead or wounded against these 3000 thousand ukrops. Well, it's what Zakharchenko says, right......

There is also a certain amount of historical and patriotic rhetoric that is really not connected to the fighting and is sort of "filler" for the interview, and he ends by saying that he sees himself as Russian and that his country is Russia. http://svpressa.ru/war21/article/143473/

It is interesting that those who fight, not least Zakharchenko, talk only of fighting primarily alongside natives of Donbass, not "Buryats" or "Kantemirovskaya division", so when he uses the word "volunteers" surely he must be taken at face value, but maybe he was crossing fingers behind back when he says such things....

Thank you Khepesh, a couple thoughts.

On the subject of "volunteers", every source, including Spanish volunteers to Donbass, says what we know, that the bulk of the forces are natives from Donbass, with exceptions like some battallion sized units, like the Cossacks, and that there are no regular Russian troops there, at least not in the ranks. At staff positions, as instructors and advisers of course there may be but the latter need not cross the border to do their task.

You and me know military units are a small world, and that soldiers and officers that are suddenly posted elsewhere would be noticed. It would be impossible to hide the dead and wounded if there were like 5,000 Russian troops engaged in combat in Donbass. There must have been wounded and killed, but these must be in the dozens, not hundreds, and that can be hidden.

On the subject of volunteers, in this interview translated by slavyangrad.es , original Russian here
http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2016/01/31_a_8046455.shtml

A volunteer says several thousand have gone into Donbass, of wich 200 have been dead, and 300 wounded. If we estimate that the volunteers are 10% of the VSN, then those are 5,000 and have suffered a 10% casualty rate, wich is a reasonable figure. Casualty rate among the militias would be of course higher.


The other thing I wanted to comment is that the latest repot from DNR talks about

‘Ukrainian fighters shelled republican territory 186 time, having violated the ceasefire regime 33 times’; it was reported to the agency.

Ukrainian fighters used mortars of 120 mm caliber 26 times, and mortars of 82 mm caliber were used 93 times. Moreover, the DPR territory was aimed by drowns 32 times, and small arms were used also.


Drowns i think is a typo and it meants "drones", if you please could confirm this, aerial recon activity is one of the telltale signs of an attack being prepared.

Heavy firing around Donetsk, at Kominternovo and Gorlovka has been taking place all morning. A raccoon in northern part Kievsky reports possible use of Grad at Spartak, but not confirmed and other reports do not have this info. These bombardments have been so heavy and continuous that its possible mass heavy mortar strikes on one location could be mistaken for Grad salvo on two rockets. It is believed that ukrops do "sneak in" an occasional Grad during these bombardments, not full salvo as it is too obvious, but two or only one rocket.

Ispan wrote:

You and me know military units are a small world, and that soldiers and officers that are suddenly posted elsewhere would be noticed. It would be impossible to hide the dead and wounded if there were like 5,000 Russian troops engaged in combat in Donbass. There must have been wounded and killed, but these must be in the dozens, not hundreds, and that can be hidden.


The other thing I wanted to comment is that the latest repot from DNR talks about

‘Ukrainian fighters shelled republican territory 186 time, having violated the ceasefire regime 33 times’; it was reported to the agency.

Ukrainian fighters used mortars of 120 mm caliber 26 times, and mortars of 82 mm caliber were used 93 times. Moreover, the DPR territory was aimed by drowns 32 times, and small arms were used also.


Drowns i think is a typo and it meants "drones", if you please could confirm this, aerial recon activity is one of the telltale signs of an attack being prepared.

Typo and it of course means fire is being directed by real time info from drones.

It may of course not be a matter of largish numbers of Russian troops, volunteers certainl, and numbered more in the thousands than hundreds, but of "exotic stuff", and ukrops from the front who talk about this subject rarely themselves seem to talk about so called Russian combat units, but "stuff" they cannot deal with, and "stuff" does not need entire divisions of Buryats etc. It hangs on what Zakharchenko says and how it is perceived, and "barely 300 volunteeers" can have several meanings.

PapaDragon wrote:
Tarp doors...

We talked about ukrops having to pay Textron to upgrade these things but yet again ukrops no pay.

''Ko ne plati na mostu platice na cupriji'' Serbian proverb, basically ''pay now or pay even more later''

We should all invest in Textron stocks methinks...

The TexT M997's to convert will probably never get delivered. The "upgrade" is said to cost 250k per vehicle. The best hope for Ukropia, is that the US liberates a chunk of its M1114's or even better have some the few hundred m1151's remaining for more modest fee (about 100K).

The biggest issue so far is that Ukraine has no discipline and hasn't mapped its own UXO/Minefields. It's "soldiers" drive in areas they shouldn't. Step on mines, get shot at, get captured where they shouldn't be.

No direct link on this. However, Deputy Cheif of Staff at Lugansk, Polkovnik Igor Yaschenko, has said that water levels on the Severskiy Donetsk has fallen as low as one meter in places, and that ukrops engineers seem to be making preperations to cross the river at the village of Prishib in Slavyanoserbsk district https://maps.yandex.ru/?ll=38.933167%2C48.731378&spn=3.284912%2C1.351431&z=14&l=map. He says they are dumping rocks into the river there, and other preperations are being made behind the front that suggest ukrops are going to attempt to cross the river.

Khepesh wrote:No direct link on this. However, Deputy Cheif of Staff at Lugansk, Polkovnik Igor Yaschenko, has said that water levels on the Severskiy Donetsk has fallen as low as one meter in places, and that ukrops engineers seem to be making preperations to cross the river at the village of Prishib in Slavyanoserbsk district https://maps.yandex.ru/?ll=38.933167%2C48.731378&spn=3.284912%2C1.351431&z=14&l=map. He says they are dumping rocks into the river there, and other preperations are being made behind the front that suggest ukrops are going to attempt to cross the river.

Trying to create a little cauldron?

As ukrops are across the river onto the south bank along it's entire length to the west of Prishi, and have positions almost behind Prishi, it is a little difficult to understand what they would gain by an assault crossing with all the problems in that sort of operation. Ukrops were doing similar along that stretch of river last summer before the offensive was called of so they do have some interest, but what  

If they were going to make an assault over the river it seems more logical to do so further east of Slavyanoserbsk, perhaps around Dolgoe. Further east towards Shchastya is difficult ground and at Shchastya they are going straight into major LNR forces. Likely they are making these preperations in full view as diversions, or simply trolling. With all these briefings it is also important to remember that you never let your enemy know what you know, so they will think their "surprise" is still a surprise, this is why many of these briefings are vapor.

Khepesh wrote:No direct link on this. However, Deputy Cheif of Staff at Lugansk, Polkovnik Igor Yaschenko, has said that water levels on the Severskiy Donetsk has fallen as low as one meter in places, and that ukrops engineers seem to be making preperations to cross the river at the village of Prishib in Slavyanoserbsk district https://maps.yandex.ru/?ll=38.933167%2C48.731378&spn=3.284912%2C1.351431&z=14&l=map. He says they are dumping rocks into the river there, and other preperations are being made behind the front that suggest ukrops are going to attempt to cross the river.

Is there a drought going on or is it because of Ukrop tampering?

Weather conditions this winter and it's not a very deep river anyway. Not much snow so there won't be a sudden rise in the Spring. Low water level and hard ground at the moment are good for river crossings, and the Donets is not a major obstacle.

Militarov wrote:Ukrainian Hummer was ambushed by DNR forces, 3 wounded Ukrainian soldiers as an aftermach:

When did that happen?