The Situation in the Ukraine. #23

More saber rattling

http://fortruss.blogspot.co.uk/2015/12/ukraine-is-preparing-to-seize-over-400.html

I think the orks feel they will be betrayed by the US doing a deal with Russia over Syria, so reigniting the war is they only real chance

It's odd wording from ukrops as they say about taking control of the border between DNR and Russia, yet 400km is the total length of border from Novoazovsk to Novokievka. And then they talk about it being essentially a police/border guards operation with assistance from the military. A strange way of calling a military offensive that will involve major battles. IMO they only have any possibility of getting to the border, even in only small strength, near Telmanovo as any attempt at an "Operation Storm" thro the gap Donetsk/Gorlovka will fail, and an assault on Lugansk is too risky as it is too close to the border. I still think if they come, then it will be with some realistic, in their minds, expectation of cutting off Novoazovsk/Telmanovo from Donetsk and so give some sort of victory and cause politcal problems in Donetsk, anything else will fail.

Ivan the Colorado wrote:
Picture recently appeared. Photo apparently taken in Ukraine. Y'all can probably guess the time period in which it was taken. Look closely at some of the personnel (they aren't ethnic Russians or Ukrainians).

So are you saying these are Russian Federation troops in Ukraine? And this group was filmed by Grisha? Can anybody post a link to video?

Khepesh wrote:I still think if they come, then it will be with some realistic, in their minds, expectation of cutting off Novoazovsk/Telmanovo from Donetsk and so give some sort of victory and cause politcal problems in Donetsk, anything else will fail.

How would Donetzk react to an Ukrainian victory?
I am not convinced that the DPR would try to re-take lost ground after they abandoned Shirokino and the neutral areas.

I cannot read and write Russian, but it seems like the Right S3xtoy is giving Porkie a death threat, claimed that his fate will be worse than Yakunovych.

Well it's not like I care when the dogs bite each others.

http://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/2532580

Ispan wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:
Picture recently appeared. Photo apparently taken in Ukraine. Y'all can probably guess the time period in which it was taken. Look closely at some of the personnel (they aren't ethnic Russians or Ukrainians).

So are you saying these are Russian Federation troops in Ukraine? And this group was filmed by Grisha? Can anybody post a link to video?

Yes, they are responsible for some of the amazing NAF victories. Russian forces took part in the North Wind operation and they were again called in to close the kotel gap in Debaltsevo.

jhelb wrote:

Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:Once I was trying to explain some aspects of the current world war by drawing parallels with WW2 wherever it was appropriate, and he comes and says "What does WW2 has to do with the current situation."

Needless to say, that very important discussion got wrecked.

Morpheus,

It's a shame that such an important discussion was derailed by some troll but can you please share that link with me if you have some time? Thanks.

jhelb,

Those discussions were probably from the time the Ukrainian civil war had just started; I will try to see if I can find some of the posts.

However, as would be expected, these kind of discussions can't get much traction before the well-known forum-wreckers putting an end to them, especially that the topic was on a subject that is just now becoming fashionable to discuss, i.e., that of the current world war. Basically not much was allowed to be discussed here at that time.

The part of those posts that I can remember, however, was on the early phases of the WW2 (GPW), where for example from 22/06/41 until I think early July '41 the "Nazis" were allegedly advancing into the Russian territory, while the Russian government's public position was that the "Nazi" advances were just enemy propaganda.

I will try to write more about this if the opportunity presents. Until then, I should point out that I am not suggesting that the current world war will be a direct parallel of any of the previous world wars. On the contrary, I have been of the opinion that the current world war will have a fundamentally different outcome.

Ivan the Colorado wrote:

Ispan wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:
Picture recently appeared. Photo apparently taken in Ukraine. Y'all can probably guess the time period in which it was taken. Look closely at some of the personnel (they aren't ethnic Russians or Ukrainians).

So are you saying these are Russian Federation troops in Ukraine? And this group was filmed by Grisha? Can anybody post a link to video?

Yes, they are responsible for some of the amazing NAF victories. Russian forces took part in the North Wind operation and they were again called in to close the kotel gap in Debaltsevo.

There are plenty of videos of Buryat, Yakut, Tatar, Ingush, Tajik, etc... volunteers (at least they call themselves volunteers) in the NAF, they show their faces and give interviews quite openly.

In of itself this pic is not proof of anything.

Has anyone watched the Ukrainian propaganda tv series "Gvardiya"? http://m.imdb.com/title/tt5207562/

higurashihougi wrote:I cannot read and write Russian, but it seems like the Right S3xtoy is giving Porkie a death threat, claimed that his fate will be worse than Yakunovych.

Well it's not like I care when the dogs bite each others.

http://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/2532580

Not a direct death threat as they would not be so stupid, but simply a forecast that when the end comes for Kiev it will violent and fast and that Poroshenko will not even have time to get to the airport. They do not even suggest who may capture Poroshenko, and it could be political opponents, VSN spetsnaz, enraged citizens or even his own people thinking that by turning on their master they will gain favor with the future rulers of Kiev. Personally I hope he meets the same fate as Najibullah, but while Najibullah did not deserve to die like that, Poroshenko does.

Give us back our rigs or else.....................

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has dubbed Russia's relocation of two jack-up rigs and the Tavrida oil platform in the Black Sea as "another episode of theft of assets and natural resources" and demanded that the property be given back to Ukraine.

"The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry urges the Russian Federation to demonstrate responsibility under international law and demands that the Russian Federation immediately take every possible practical measure to stop the actions violating international law, to provide appropriate assurances and guarantees that [such actions] will not repeat in the future, and to immediately return Ukrainian property for its use and ownership. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry reserves the right to demand that the Russian side compensate for the damage done by its actions which exhibit every sign of violation of international law under the content of the convention," the ministry said in the statement posted on Wednesday.

Crimea is gone.................

The Ukrainian government will decide at a meeting on Wednesday to restrict the supply of goods and services to and from Crimea. The decision will take effect 30 days after it is made. "It is prohibited to supply works, goods and services in every customs regime with the exception of personal belongings, socially significant foodstuffs and humanitarian aid," Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk said as he was opening the government's meeting on Wednesday.

A decision to continue power supply to Crimea will be made by the National Security and Defense Council, he said.

We really want, sorry need, to keep trading with Russia after 1st Jan........................

Ukraine is ready to discuss the possibility of establishing brief transition periods - lasting two-three years - for a number of technical regulations, said Mykolska, who is Ukraine's trade representative. "We have experts currently working in Brussels, yesterday and today. According to my information, they have made progress in the work. For our part and the part of the European Union, there is the desire for a resolution. We are hopeful that we will reach some kind of agreement on the 21st," she said.

Asked whether Ukraine agreed with Russia's demand for a transition period for technical regulations and phytosanitary measures, when Russian rules would be in effect in Ukraine side-by-side with European rules, Mykolska said: "There are transition periods and there are transition periods. If this concerns a transition period to 2025, that's not even funny. All business will adapt to any changes a lot faster than that." "We have already introduced many technical regulations and there can be no road back, because that is a part of our law. We can speak of certain periods, brief ones, two-three years. That is a sufficient transition period," she said.

"Our position is clear and concise: no changes in the agreement on free trade zones with the EU, which enters force on January 1. We can seek certain compromises for certain sectors of the Russian economy, to establish certain transition periods or consultative processes between the sides to remove concerns," she said.


And the best of all................................my highlight

Allegations of corruption in the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine are ungrounded and are intended to destabilize the country, members of the Cabinet said in a statement posted on the government's portal on Wednesday. "Statements have been heard recently in which the government is wrongly accused of corruption. The aim of such accusations is to destabilize the country and bring oligarchs to power. The accusations against the government are unsubstantiated and groundless. All of them have been repeatedly denied," the statement reads.


From Interfax

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:

Khepesh wrote:I still think if they come, then it will be with some realistic, in their minds, expectation of cutting off Novoazovsk/Telmanovo from Donetsk and so give some sort of victory and cause politcal problems in Donetsk, anything else will fail.

How would Donetzk react to an Ukrainian victory?
I am not convinced that the DPR would try to re-take lost ground after they abandoned Shirokino and the neutral areas.

Zakharchenko keeps promising that all the territory of Donetsk will be liberated, so, in the event of a ukrops success in taking the southern front, or of at least cutting off Telmanovo and Novoazovsk from Donetsk, this will be a military and political blow to him and may cause difficulties to maintain the current situation in Donetsk. People will become dissillusioned and no longer feel safe from ukrops taking all of Donbass, as at the moment it is seen that this will never happen. But it is only a scenario and based on only a succesful or partially succesful ukrops offensive in the south. The area for war operations in all of Donbass is limited and direct assaults on Donetsk and Lugansk, or attempts at close encirclement will be difficult or impossible for ukrops. They will also need to shell civilian areas, not that they are shy in this anyway, but it would require very heavy bombardment that even western opinion will not be happy with. The southern front is thinly populated and lacking in defensive depth. It is an obvious target, but looking at what else is available, then the obvious target may be the only viable target for ukrops. This is not to exclude any surprises elsewhere of course. Zakharchenko is correct to say that all of Donestk will be liberated, but it will not be the result of a VSN offensive specifically designed for that purpose, it will be as a reaction to either a failed ukrops offensive or a political collapse in Kiev that could possibly spark a general civil war in Ukraine.

Khepesh wrote:It's odd wording from ukrops as they say about taking control of the border between DNR and Russia, yet 400km is the total length of border from Novoazovsk to Novokievka. And then they talk about it being essentially a police/border guards operation with assistance from the military. A strange way of calling a military offensive that will involve major battles. IMO they only have any possibility of getting to the border, even in only small strength, near Telmanovo as any attempt at an "Operation Storm" thro the gap Donetsk/Gorlovka will fail, and an assault on Lugansk is too risky as it is too close to the border. I still think if they come, then it will be with some realistic, in their minds, expectation of cutting off Novoazovsk/Telmanovo from Donetsk and so give some sort of victory and cause politcal problems in Donetsk, anything else will fail.

I believe you're onto something..

Donetsk: Orthodox icons on the windows for protection from Ukrainian bombs Kristina Kharlova Светлана Славянка

Kingdom of heaven . . .

Ispan wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:
Picture recently appeared. Photo apparently taken in Ukraine. Y'all can probably guess the time period in which it was taken. Look closely at some of the personnel (they aren't ethnic Russians or Ukrainians).

So are you saying these are Russian Federation troops in Ukraine? And this group was filmed by Grisha? Can anybody post a link to video?

wrong tracks to be Russian T-72's they are the old style tracks either T-72BM or T-72BA which Ukraine had in their tank reserves

JohninMK wrote:Give us back our rigs or else.....................

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has dubbed Russia's relocation of two jack-up rigs and the Tavrida oil platform in the Black Sea as "another episode of theft of assets and natural resources" and demanded that the property be given back to Ukraine.

"The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry urges the Russian Federation to demonstrate responsibility under international law and demands that the Russian Federation immediately take every possible practical measure to stop the actions violating international law, to provide appropriate assurances and guarantees that [such actions] will not repeat in the future, and to immediately return Ukrainian property for its use and ownership. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry reserves the right to demand that the Russian side compensate for the damage done by its actions which exhibit every sign of violation of international law under the content of the convention," the ministry said in the statement posted on Wednesday.

Crimea is gone.................

The Ukrainian government will decide at a meeting on Wednesday to restrict the supply of goods and services to and from Crimea. The decision will take effect 30 days after it is made. "It is prohibited to supply works, goods and services in every customs regime with the exception of personal belongings, socially significant foodstuffs and humanitarian aid," Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk said as he was opening the government's meeting on Wednesday.

A decision to continue power supply to Crimea will be made by the National Security and Defense Council, he said.

We really want, sorry need, to keep trading with Russia after 1st Jan........................

Ukraine is ready to discuss the possibility of establishing brief transition periods - lasting two-three years - for a number of technical regulations, said Mykolska, who is Ukraine's trade representative. "We have experts currently working in Brussels, yesterday and today. According to my information, they have made progress in the work. For our part and the part of the European Union, there is the desire for a resolution. We are hopeful that we will reach some kind of agreement on the 21st," she said.

Asked whether Ukraine agreed with Russia's demand for a transition period for technical regulations and phytosanitary measures, when Russian rules would be in effect in Ukraine side-by-side with European rules, Mykolska said: "There are transition periods and there are transition periods. If this concerns a transition period to 2025, that's not even funny. All business will adapt to any changes a lot faster than that." "We have already introduced many technical regulations and there can be no road back, because that is a part of our law. We can speak of certain periods, brief ones, two-three years. That is a sufficient transition period," she said.

"Our position is clear and concise: no changes in the agreement on free trade zones with the EU, which enters force on January 1. We can seek certain compromises for certain sectors of the Russian economy, to establish certain transition periods or consultative processes between the sides to remove concerns," she said.


And the best of all................................my highlight

Allegations of corruption in the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine are ungrounded and are intended to destabilize the country, members of the Cabinet said in a statement posted on the government's portal on Wednesday. "Statements have been heard recently in which the government is wrongly accused of corruption. The aim of such accusations is to destabilize the country and bring oligarchs to power. The accusations against the government are unsubstantiated and groundless. All of them have been repeatedly denied," the statement reads.From Interfax

Lift flap on holster and remove Makarov. Hold Makarov in the approved Military grip. (See Regulation 584, paragraph 337, sub paragraph 41, note 6)

Insert magazine and chamber a round. (Covered in Regulation 584, Paragraph 388, sub paragraph 52, note 118)

Move safety lever to 'off' position. (You aught to know how to do that by now, dummy.)

Carefully insert Makarov muzzle down between trousers and blouse, directly behind belt buckle until only the pistol grip is above the trouser waist band.

Grit teeth, close eyes and pull trigger.

Welcome to Ukraine, land of some of the greatest idiots on the face of this planet.

Godric wrote:

Ispan wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:
Picture recently appeared. Photo apparently taken in Ukraine. Y'all can probably guess the time period in which it was taken. Look closely at some of the personnel (they aren't ethnic Russians or Ukrainians).

So are you saying these are Russian Federation troops in Ukraine? And this group was filmed by Grisha? Can anybody post a link to video?

wrong tracks to be Russian T-72's they are the old style tracks either T-72BM or T-72BA which Ukraine had in their tank reserves

These are combat tankers, from Russia. They are "volunteers" that's for sure, because, otherwise there would be some other things to cover them IF they were officially pumping Youcrying, but these guys are from the same unit.

The tanks are a mix of T-72BA, B1, B3. Grisha filmed them while they were on their way back, neatly disposed in tank platoon, ready to go OUT of the AO, and the NAF going in.

The first picture is the HQ platoon (5 T's+ BMP/Ural dead give aways). The PPE and the 74M are also some distinctive features that these people weren't "simple" volunteers. Also it's really funny as these obviously are going to get their marching orders.

Also the track issue, we've been there before, old tracks are very much in use in the Russian Army, if you were looking for deniability, then the Sosna-U on Grisha's footage is a dead giveaway.

Again, I know you guys are all hush hush about this and this is NOT something of a clean cut proof, but I prefer understanding things, instead of mystifying myself.

flamming_python wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:

Ispan wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:
Picture recently appeared. Photo apparently taken in Ukraine. Y'all can probably guess the time period in which it was taken. Look closely at some of the personnel (they aren't ethnic Russians or Ukrainians).

So are you saying these are Russian Federation troops in Ukraine? And this group was filmed by Grisha? Can anybody post a link to video?

Yes, they are responsible for some of the amazing NAF victories. Russian forces took part in the North Wind operation and they were again called in to close the kotel gap in Debaltsevo.

There are plenty of videos of Buryat, Yakut, Tatar, Ingush, Tajik, etc... volunteers (at least they call themselves volunteers) in the NAF, they show their faces and give interviews quite openly.

In of itself this pic is not proof of anything.

No, I agree that the picture in of itself is not indicative of anything. But there has been a plethora of other information that all strongly suggests that Buryat Tankers were involved in combat operations during the time of Debaltsevo.
This photo didn't take me very long to find:

Nor did this video of the same group:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:

Ispan wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:
Picture recently appeared. Photo apparently taken in Ukraine. Y'all can probably guess the time period in which it was taken. Look closely at some of the personnel (they aren't ethnic Russians or Ukrainians).

So are you saying these are Russian Federation troops in Ukraine? And this group was filmed by Grisha? Can anybody post a link to video?

Yes, they are responsible for some of the amazing NAF victories. Russian forces took part in the North Wind operation and they were again called in to close the kotel gap in Debaltsevo.

There are plenty of videos of Buryat, Yakut, Tatar, Ingush, Tajik, etc... volunteers (at least they call themselves volunteers) in the NAF, they show their faces and give interviews quite openly.

In of itself this pic is not proof of anything.

No, I agree that the picture in of itself is not indicative of anything. But there has been a plethora of other information that all strongly suggests that Buryat Tankers were involved in combat operations during the time of Debaltsevo.
This photo didn't take me very long to find:

Nor did this video of the same group:

That's a Tank Company alright...BA's; B1's on the move complete with Support and C2 vehicles. Those are like super trained volunteers.

Also/

http://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/ukraine-politics/avakov-posts-video-of-heated-argument-with-saakashvili-404335.html




This needs a nasheed.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:

Ispan wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:
Picture recently appeared. Photo apparently taken in Ukraine. Y'all can probably guess the time period in which it was taken. Look closely at some of the personnel (they aren't ethnic Russians or Ukrainians).

So are you saying these are Russian Federation troops in Ukraine? And this group was filmed by Grisha? Can anybody post a link to video?

Yes, they are responsible for some of the amazing NAF victories. Russian forces took part in the North Wind operation and they were again called in to close the kotel gap in Debaltsevo.

There are plenty of videos of Buryat, Yakut, Tatar, Ingush, Tajik, etc... volunteers (at least they call themselves volunteers) in the NAF, they show their faces and give interviews quite openly.

In of itself this pic is not proof of anything.

No, I agree that the picture in of itself is not indicative of anything. But there has been a plethora of other information that all strongly suggests that Buryat Tankers were involved in combat operations during the time of Debaltsevo.
This photo didn't take me very long to find:

Nor did this video of the same group:

That's a Tank Company alright...BA's; B1's on the move complete with Support and C2 vehicles. Those are like super trained volunteers.

The vast majority of these "volunteers" also happen to be from a people's group from a very specific region in Russia. Something that doesn't happen in the ethnically diverse NAF where it is possible to find a number of minorities in one unit...

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Godric wrote:

Ispan wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:
Picture recently appeared. Photo apparently taken in Ukraine. Y'all can probably guess the time period in which it was taken. Look closely at some of the personnel (they aren't ethnic Russians or Ukrainians).

So are you saying these are Russian Federation troops in Ukraine? And this group was filmed by Grisha? Can anybody post a link to video?

wrong tracks to be Russian T-72's they are the old style tracks either T-72BM or T-72BA which Ukraine had in their tank reserves

These are combat tankers, from Russia. They are "volunteers" that's for sure, because, otherwise there would be some other things to cover them IF they were officially pumping Youcrying, but these guys are from the same unit.

The tanks are a mix of T-72BA, B1, B3.  Grisha filmed them while they were on their way back, neatly disposed in tank platoon, ready to go OUT of the AO, and the NAF going in.

The first picture is the HQ platoon (5 T's+ BMP/Ural dead give aways). The PPE and the 74M are also some distinctive features that these people weren't "simple" volunteers. Also it's really funny as these obviously are going to get their marching orders.

Also the track issue, we've been there before, old tracks are very much in use in the Russian Army, if you were looking for deniability, then the Sosna-U on Grisha's footage is a dead giveaway.

Again, I know you guys are all hush hush about this and this is NOT something of a clean cut proof, but I prefer understanding things, instead of mystifying myself.

Not at all, it was pretty clear to me that Russian forces were directly involved for quite some time. Looking at Kadyrov's Chechen battallion, who were deployed there very openly and made plenty of their own video blog entries - is the easiest way to confirm that. Officially speaking they are Russian MVD servicemen, and they never would have found their way there w/o Kadyrov's orders, who himself would have never given those orders w/o at least an OK from the Kremlin.

And there were plenty of other indicators too; the destroyed columns of Ukrainian armour, the Pantsir-Ss and EW systems photographed a few times, the complete thrashing that the Ukraine got in all its cauldrons and the skillful way in which their lines were completely broken apart after these catastrophies, basically left right open for anyone to nip through (but of course no-one did as the West rushed to get Minsk 1 & 2 signed, correspondingly).
That sort of thing won't happen without the involvement of Russian SF, air defence specialists and officers/command staff, that's pretty clear.

Then all the stories of Russian servicemen volunteering for Ukraine duty, resignations, holidays, casualties, etc... well, there's no smoke w/o fire as they say.

As for the videos we've seen now and before a few times, of fully formed battallions++ of armour and support vehicles manned by clearly well-trained crewmen - that always looked suspicious too; but I wouldn't be so quick as to assume that it's the Russian army in that case.
I have heard of how rebel armour battallions were being trained in Rostov; manned mostly by rebel volunteers - and how 2 such formations were sent in in time for Debaltsevo. Those videos I've seen could very well pass off for such a Russian-trained but mostly locally-manned and partially locally-equipped force.
That's why I said that the photo doesn't necessarily mean anything.

Does anyone else here remember those stories from the end of July/beginning of August of those pairs and trios of UkrOp survivors speaking of Russian "T-90s" and "Spetsnaz" obliteratig their platoons? Well, it seems that they weren't bullshiting, in the north around Lugansk there actually were T-90s while the south got "only" advanced T-72s. I was always sceptical of the claims that artillery alone can destroy so many AFVs (which was the prevalent theory back then).