Moldova and Transnistria Situation Thread

ATLASCUB wrote:A lot of threats are about to be cashed in. We will know if it's more of the bluff kind soon enough. God knows we've seen plenty of that already.

I see you are one of those idiots who still have not figured out that VP does not bluff.
Just like Russia accepted the "brotherly peoples" of Ukraine stealing gas for years while Poland got like 3 days reprieve, I think you will find out that any military attack against Russia by these people in NATO would similarly face a non-linear response.

I do not know how well they will do long term with this kind of limited war.
The current troops Russia has there have clearly shown they can handle the troops Ukraine has in the field.
But I think a surge will eventually be necessary to take on the larger cities.

Russia might decide to just engage the remaining Ukrainian troops in the South and mop them up and call the end of general operations after that. With only retaliatory strikes. Might even end the special operation then and there. But I think the conflict will continue in general for quite some time. Even the Second Chechen War lasted almost a year in terms of the main combat phase. So this is going to take a while.

lancelot wrote:

ATLASCUB wrote:A lot of threats are about to be cashed in. We will know if it's more of the bluff kind soon enough. God knows we've seen plenty of that already.

I see you are one of those idiots who still have not figured out that VP does not bluff.
Just like Russia accepted the "brotherly peoples" of Ukraine stealing gas for years while Poland got like 3 days reprieve, I think you will find out that any military attack against Russia by these people in NATO would similarly face a non-linear response.

I do not know how well they will do long term with this kind of limited war.
The current troops Russia has there have clearly shown they can handle the troops Ukraine has in the field.
But I think a surge will eventually be necessary to take on the larger cities.

They might decide to just engage their remaining troops in the South and mop them out and call the end of general operations after that. With only retaliatory strikes.

Most funny is that US is pushing them to attack Russia so that article 5 can't be triggered.

US is clearly trying to destroy Europe, and more precisely, german industry by scrificing eastern countries.

Their economy is dead, no more enemies in middle east so thry need a new cold war with a new Warsaw pact which means Russia colonizing the satelitte states.

Isos wrote:Most funny is that US is pushing them to attack Russia so that article 5 can't be triggered.

US is clearly trying to destroy Europe, and more precisely, german industry by scrificing eastern countries.

Their economy is dead, no more enemies in middle east so thry need a new cold war with a new Warsaw pact which means Russia colonizing the satellite states.

Russia won't do that. Their force structure is not up to it. Impossible to do a long term occupation of most of Europe. And for what?

lancelot wrote:

Isos wrote:Most funny is that US is pushing them to attack Russia so that article 5 can't be triggered.

US is clearly trying to destroy Europe, and more precisely, german industry by scrificing eastern countries.

Their economy is dead, no more enemies in middle east so thry need a new cold war with a new Warsaw pact which means Russia colonizing the satellite states.

Russia won't do that. Their force structure is not up to it. Impossible to do a long term occupation of most of Europe. And for what?

If they mobilize they can.

If they have the opportunity to take the baltics they will take them. Ukraine is alrzady being annexed. Moldova or at least transnistria will follow.

Destroying Romania to create a land route to Serbia is also a possibility.

Azerbaijan is also a big gaz supplier for Europe destroying it is a solution for Russia if Turkey keep pushing its pawns there.

Russia has nothing to loose anymore since they are sanctions at 100% and US will never try a military war woth them. They can vbomb anyone now.

Isos wrote:If they mobilize they can.
If they have the opportunity to take the baltics they will take them. Ukraine is alrzady being annexed. Moldova or at least transnistria will follow.
Destroying Romania to create a land route to Serbia is also a possibility.
Azerbaijan is also a big gaz supplier for Europe destroying it is a solution for Russia if Turkey keep pushing its pawns there.
Russia has nothing to loose anymore since they are sanctions at 100% and US will never try a military war woth them. They can vbomb anyone now.

Maybe long term but I do not see it happening in the short term. Taking Romania would not help their defensive situation.
I could see them taking the Baltics to ensure a land bridge to Kaliningrad. And Transnistria. But Moldova seems kind of pointless and Romania more so.

If Russia does take the Baltics it would solve two problems simultaneously. It would prove that the US won't come to the aid of NATO countries either and give Russia a land bridge to Kaliningrad. It would likely spook the Finns and Swedes out of NATO if it is done before they join.

No need to conquer them militarily. A few years of sanctions and they will come begging for Russia to take them back.

lancelot wrote:

ATLASCUB wrote:A lot of threats are about to be cashed in. We will know if it's more of the bluff kind soon enough. God knows we've seen plenty of that already.

I see you are one of those idiots who still have not figured out that VP does not bluff.
Just like Russia accepted the "brotherly peoples" of Ukraine stealing gas for years while Poland got like 3 days reprieve, I think you will find out that any military attack against Russia by these people in NATO would similarly face a non-linear response.

I do not know how well they will do long term with this kind of limited war.
The current troops Russia has there have clearly shown they can handle the troops Ukraine has in the field.
But I think a surge will eventually be necessary to take on the larger cities.

Russia might decide to just engage the remaining Ukrainian troops in the South and mop them up and call the end of general operations after that. With only retaliatory strikes. Might even end the special operation then and there. But I think the conflict will continue in general for quite some time. Even the Second Chechen War lasted almost a year in terms of the main combat phase. So this is going to take a while.

No need for a surge. After the Donbass operation Russia will have a numerical advantage in every direction: Kharkow, Nikolayev, Odessa, even around Kiev (if neccessary). The cities may be bigger then Mariupol, but the number of "defenders" doesn´t correlate to that. Kiev is 10 times bigger then Mariupol but there aren´t 200.000 soldiers. The size of the cities can even be a disadvantage for the defender. To many streets to keep an eye on.

Just for "fun". A few thought about a possible contingency plan for Transnistria/Moldova.

If the dumbasses in Kiev/Lviv are really so stupid to gather 20.000 "soldiers" that they could really need elsewhere to attack Transninstria, I guess the reaction of the Russian MoD could be something like this:

1. cruise missile strikes against troop gatherings. I mean, in the past weeks every gathering of more then 100 soldiers was bombed. Do the geniuses in Brussels/Kiev/Lviv think this time it will be different?

2. Bomb, bomb, bomb the Nazis. The VKS and AVMF will love it. A few hundred sorties a day. YES!

3. amphibious assault somewhere south-west of Odessa, in that land extension south of Moldavia.

4. air assault, to conquer some airfield(s)

5. bring in more VDV troops/equipment + more stuff across the sea (points 1 and 2 will be repeated constantly during that time)

6. move these troops into Transnistria to help the defenders

7. launch an attack at Nikolaev. Because of some urgency the Russians will be less careful. As Nazi I would start praying in that instance.

8. Ignore Odessa, just bloc enemy troops there.

9. move the main force towards Transnistria, liberate the whole area, Gaugazia too. Shit, take the whole of Moldavia. If some of the folks there really want to live in a garbage can like Romania let them go.

10. come back to Nikolaev and Odessa and f... the Nazis there.

I think they should send heavier infantry equipment to Transnistria via airlift. Body armor, machine guns, ATGMs, MANPADS. They should send some drones to the troops there like the Orlan-10 so they can keep up with any troop movements Ukraine does.

There is a short airfield at Tiraspol which could be used. The airstrip has a rough concrete runway but probably can be used with aircraft which can operate on rough conditions. You could also send in helicopters.

If it came to it you would deploy the VDV paratroopers and use the VKS to provide air support. You would make a marine landing in the southwest of Odessa, make a beachhead, and connect to Transnistria. They could also try to capture Chornomorsk, deploy artillery and drones in the outskirts, and use that to hit units in Odessa proper.

I agree that in case Ukraine does attack Transnistria then Russia should just push through to Nikolayev.

lancelot wrote:I think they should send heavier infantry equipment to Transnistria via airlift. Body armor, machine guns, ATGMs, MANPADS. They should send some drones to the troops there like the Orlan-10 so they can keep up with any troop movements Ukraine does.

There is a short airfield at Tiraspol which could be used. The airstrip has a rough concrete runway but probably can be used with aircraft which can operate on rough conditions. You could also send in helicopters.

If it came to it you would deploy the VDV paratroopers and use the VKS to provide air support. You would make a marine landing in the southwest of Odessa, make a beachhead, and connect to Transnistria. They could also try to capture Chornomorsk, deploy artillery and drones in the outskirts, and use that to hit units in Odessa proper.

I agree that in case Ukraine does attack Transnistria then Russia should just push through to Nikolayev.

What is a funny part here, is that now they can.
Before the war, TRD was landlocked. Russia could not supply them, they are left with the same things they had back in 1992.
Troops rotation was made masqueraded as civilian traffic. It was a sick joke.
Now, they can access the Tiraspol by airlift, the only thing they must take care of, is to liquidate all the SAM threats in the area.

lancelot wrote:I think they should send heavier infantry equipment to Transnistria via airlift. Body armor, machine guns, ATGMs, MANPADS. They should send some drones to the troops there like the Orlan-10 so they can keep up with any troop movements Ukraine does.

There is a short airfield at Tiraspol which could be used. The airstrip has a rough concrete runway but probably can be used with aircraft which can operate on rough conditions. You could also send in helicopters.

If it came to it you would deploy the VDV paratroopers and use the VKS to provide air support. You would make a marine landing in the southwest of Odessa, make a beachhead, and connect to Transnistria. They could also try to capture Chornomorsk, deploy artillery and drones in the outskirts, and use that to hit units in Odessa proper.

I agree that in case Ukraine does attack Transnistria then Russia should just push through to Nikolayev.

You do realise that Transnistria has loads of weapons, firearms, ATGW, MANPADS, mortars, what they are lacking is armour and heavier AD systems. There is villages where they cleared the population from and filled all the houses full of weapons. The locals when I visited said that after the fall of Berlin wall and effectively the Soviet Union they sent train loads of weapons through Moldova the locals stated 10 million weapons. Only 3-4 million made it back to Moscow the rest went into storage in Transnistria as they felt the need to store weapons for what they saw was a potential war, well a war did take place lasted nearly two years, they won.

Armour, heavier AD systems and heavy artillery with. Some hind helis and Su-25, maybe some su-24 and they would be sorted. Mig-29 could be useful incase Romania decided to fly any aircraft near it.

What keeps Moldova in the CIS? Simple answers.

Moldova does not communicate with the CIS, does not participate in the events of the Commonwealth, but it will announce its withdrawal only "when the right moment comes."

This was stated the day before by the (https://t.me/sputnik/8671) Speaker of the Parliament Grosu.

Moldova cannot meet the EU standards for the export of agricultural products without upgrading capacities.

As a result, the products are sold to the CIS market under a free trade agreement.

For modernization, Chisinau needs energy resources, which it buys in the Russian Federation.

There are 104 thousand Moldovan workers working in Russia (for 2021). They contribute $62 million to the budget of their country.

As citizens of the CIS, Moldovans do not need to apply for a work visa in the Russian Federation or another Commonwealth country.

However, Moldova still sees its future in the EU. What is this if not the European tactic of "shooting yourself in the foot"?

Backman wrote:However, Moldova still sees its future in the EU. What is this if not the European tactic of "shooting yourself in the foot"?

Best thing for Moldova could do right now is to give up Transnistria and become a part of Romanian territory. If they're going to surrender their sovereignty to the EU they may as well go all the way with it, no half measures.

Best thing for Moldova would be to become a region of the Russian Federation. 

Hole wrote:Best thing for Moldova would be to become a region of the Russian Federation. 

Like the other poor countries their political leadership is corrupted and their people are so desperate they beleive when US/EU promise them billions of investments to make them all rich because "they are of particular importance to the free world and the gate of europe about (fill the gap with the dumbest word you can find) that need to be saved from inexistant russian or chinese threat (look at that chinese base 5000km away looking at Moldova, suspect)".

Unfortunatly this tactic to destroy countries is easier to implement today. People in such countries spend their time on facebook and instagram looking at nice villas and cars and dreaming about travelling around the world. They are hungry and want money. US brings them the menu to order but never the food. And they keep eating shit and living in shit.

Hole wrote:Best thing for Moldova would be to become a region of the Russian Federation. 

Maybe so but would that be the best thing for Russia? Never forget, the Baltic states were a financial burden on Russia just like they're a financial burden on the EU today. -

Not true. Up to the end of the 80´s they were agriculture powerhouses, there were  large electronic producers and the largest producer of ambulances in the whole country (known as SU back then). Was all destroyed by the Eurocrats and their minions. And Sweden.

Moldova was and is a large producer of vegetables, fruits and wine. Their largest consumer is Russia. If Moldova would become a russian region that stuff would be produced inside Russia (again).

Just like Crimea. Instead of 3 million tourists (Russians) spending their money in a "foreign" country they now spend it inside Russia.

https://www.stalkerzone.org/the-executioners-of-the-moldovan-people-are-now-fighters-for-peace-and-freedom-on-romanian-soil/

Pridnestrovie: new strength tests


The past year has brought new strength tests to Pridnestrovie, and 2023 may also turn out to be quite difficult in this regard. The situation in the Moldovan-Pridnestrovian settlement continues to deteriorate. The security situation continues to be of concern. There is no immediate military threat in the region today, however, voices are regularly heard from Kyiv that the “problem of Transnistria” must be resolved by force. Chisinau rejects this option, even the current Moldovan authorities understand its catastrophic nature for everyone. But against the backdrop of the fact that the West continues to pump up the region with military equipment and weapons, one cannot firmly vouch for anything.

The situation in the Moldovan-Pridnestrovian negotiations gradually degraded even before the events of February 2022. Since 2019, exporting enterprises of the PMR have faced new financial and banking restrictions in the Republic of Moldova, closure of accounts. In September 2021, Chisinau and Kyiv organized a blockade for Pridnestrovian vehicles - cars with Pridnestrovian license plates were no longer able to travel to Ukraine.

Since the end of February 2022, Ukraine has completely closed the border with Pridnestrovie, although there was no threat from the PMR for the border Ukrainian regions and could not come. Today it is known that such a step was taken at the suggestion of the Moldovan side. After that, Chisinau received full control not only over Pridnestrovian exports, but also over imports. This did not take long to turn into new problems for the PMR. At the Moldovan customs, medicines of Russian, Belarusian and even European production, as well as cargoes with agricultural chemistry and food, began to be delayed. All this led to an increase in costs for Pridnestrovian importers, to an increase in prices for a number of goods on the PMR domestic market.

Another problem concerned the import of raw materials for the Moldavian Metallurgical Plant, the largest ferrous metallurgy enterprise in the region. The plant is located in the Pridnestrovian city of Rybnitsa. Moldova began to link the import of raw materials for it with the issuance of environmental authorizations. As a result, from the end of February to the end of April, while the issue of authorizations was being resolved, the plant was forced to suspend production. This affected the final indicators of Pridnestrovian exports in 2022.

In November, Pridnestrovie faced a gas crisis, which was associated with the fact that JSC "Moldovagaz" selected blue fuel intended for the PMR. Fortunately, one month was enough for the Moldovan authorities to understand that the gas crisis is not in the interests of Chisinau itself, because of this it is deprived of cheap Transnistrian electricity. The cost of electricity, which Moldova bought in European markets in November, sometimes reached $450 per megawatt-hour. Electricity tariffs for the population immediately soared - to figures 4-6 times higher than in Russia.

As a result, in early December, Tiraspol and Chisinau came to a new energy deal, which continues today. In accordance with it, Pridnestrovie received the entire volume of gas supplied to Moldova by the Russian Gazprom, and in return covered about 60% of Moldova's electricity needs at a price of $73 per megawatt-hour. Moldova produces another 30% itself, and buys the remaining 10% in Romania.

The problems of 2022 did not end with the gas crisis. In December, the draft amendments appeared in the Moldovan parliament, which introduce new articles and concepts into the Criminal Code of the Republic of Moldova. Among them are “separatism”, “conspiracy against Moldova”, “anti-constitutional subject”, “illegal information structure”. To date, this bill has been approved in the final reading, and it contains a threat to many residents of Transnistria.

At the beginning of 2023, the disposition in relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol is as follows. At the political level, the issue of importing medicines to the PMR has not been resolved - as far as one can understand, local pharmaceutical companies solve it "according to the situation", and this is far from the best option. There are also risks of detention of food cargo for Pridnestrovie.

The Moldavian metallurgical plant is working and is waiting for five-year environmental authorizations from the Moldavian authorities, which would give a guarantee that the enterprise will not have problems from this side. In fact, stopping the plant is not very profitable for Chisinau either - a significant part of the income is lost by the Moldovan railway and scrap metal suppliers, and the construction industry will not receive the materials it needs.

Everything is complicated with the work of the international negotiating format "5 + 2" on the Moldovan-Pridnestrovian settlement, which, in addition to the parties to the conflict, includes Russia, Ukraine, the OSCE, the European Union and the United States. The format has not been built since the end of 2019. And one of the main questions of this year is whether it will be possible to unlock it.

There are no and, apparently, no top-level meetings between Moldova and Pridnestrovie are expected, although the President of the PMR Vadim Krasnoselsky made such proposals to Maia Sandu more than once (the last of them was in August last year).

The implementation of the negotiating agenda that was developed back in 2016-2017, when Germany and Austria held the OSCE chairmanship, is stalling. Thus, the agreement, which provided for the restoration of direct telephone communication between Pridnestrovie and Moldova, has not been fulfilled (and has already lost its force). As we noted, the freedom of movement of Pridnestrovian vehicles is limited. The issue of banking interaction is not being resolved.

Under the current conditions, the Moldovan authorities have a choice between two approaches to settling relations with Transnistria. The first is not to repeat Ukraine's mistakes and, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said last August, "think about the interests of those people who live side by side." That is, to solve socio-economic problems, thereby creating the prerequisites for a lasting political settlement.

Today, however, a different, "geopolitical" approach dominates in Chisinau. The leadership of the Republic of Moldova links the resolution of the conflict with the situation in Ukraine. The position here is as follows: not to conduct any serious negotiations with Tiraspol until the Ukrainian events are over. At the same time, the authorities of the Republic of Moldova do not hide their hopes that the negotiating position of Pridnestrovie will deteriorate in any way during this time and it will be easier for Chisinau to achieve unilateral concessions from Tiraspol.

These hopes are fueled by representatives of Kyiv, who promise to help Chisinau in forcing Transnistria to “reintegrate” into Moldova. “I think that Kyiv, Chisinau and our partners from all over the world will be able to get together and discuss what needs to be done so that Tiraspol, for example, wants to [give in and reintegrate],” said Ukrainian Ambassador to Moldova Marko Shevchenko at the end of last year in on the air of one of the Moldovan TV channels.

What forecasts can be made for Chisinau and Tiraspol for the coming year? In January, we are still seeing some kind of “buildup”. The energy deal has already been extended on a routine basis: Pridnestrovie will continue to supply electricity to Moldova in February.

It can be assumed that the energy contract in one form or another will be maintained throughout the year. At least, the objective situation is such that Transnistria today is the only source of cheap imported electricity for the Republic of Moldova. Under the current conditions, it will not be possible to count on Ukraine for a long time, and Ukrainian electricity, as a rule, was more expensive than Pridnestrovian in peacetime.

Energy is the area where "geopolitical" approaches do not work. In the summer, representatives of the Moldovan government stated that “yes, the price of electricity that Tiraspol offers us is incomparably more interesting than in other markets, but there is a price of dignity and a situation may arise when we prefer to buy twice as much, but from the other side” . Now you don't hear anything like that anymore.

An interesting picture is emerging around the 5+2 negotiation format. In the summer, the Moldovan authorities began to claim that he was “tired” and needed to be restarted. This happened against the backdrop of statements by US Ambassador to Moldova Kent Logsdon that, in addition to the 5 + 2 format, in the future Moldova “needs to think about something else.”

However, today something has changed: the same Logsdon recently said on the air of one of the Moldovan TV channels that the United States considers the 5 + 2 format the only mechanism for finding a peaceful solution to the Moldovan-Pridnestrovian conflict. At the same time, the Deputy Prime Minister of the Republic of Moldova for Reintegration, Oleg Serebryan, at a meeting with the Russian Ambassador to Moldova, Oleg Vasnetsov, seems to have agreed that the 5 + 2 format is an uncontested platform for negotiations today.

It’s probably too early to talk about something here, but if international mediators, especially Western ones, really show activity, then work in the 5 + 2 format in 2023 has a chance to resume one way or another. But, we repeat, it is too early to assume anything.

The security situation deserves a separate discussion. Here, a number of questions are brewing related to the already mentioned “law on separatism” and the activity of Moldova in the military sphere. But this is a separate conversation.

https://www-ritmeurasia-org.translate.goog/news--2023-02-04--pridnestrove-novye-testy-na-prochnost-64489?utm_source=politobzor.net&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en

Transnistria will be joining Russia no matter what Moldova does, the only question is how much of Moldova will be smoldering and destroyed at the time this happens. Their leader I think is a WEF stooge and a NATO/EU bootlicker so anything is possible.

Do not forget Gagauzia.

Furthermore, when Chisinau and what remains of Moldava will have Russia as a neighbor and not country 404, it will be interesting to see how much russophobic they can still be

Transnistria will be joining Russia no matter what Moldova does, the only question is how much of Moldova will be smoldering and destroyed at the time this happens. Their leader I think is a WEF stooge and a NATO/EU bootlicker so anything is possible.

That depends on them

They honestly didn't count on their retarded leader coming out strongly on the side of NATO. When the war began she declared neutrality and had the support of Moldova's population in this; pro-Russian, anti-Russian, doesn't matter. This I know for a fact.

And there were a lot of protests there against the government and even slight involvement in the war.

If they want to stay together as a country, and that includes reuniting with Pridnestrovie some day, so then they better vote that bitch out of power and the rest of these Soros stooges, and if they try to lead their country into involvement into the war - then strike, protest, organize, don't let them.