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    Military budget of the Russian Federation

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    Kimppis

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  Kimppis on Thu May 25, 2017 3:11 pm

    Well, currently Russia's PPP GDP per capita is almost 3 higher than its nominal GDP. So I guess you could say that the "real" military spending is something like $150 billion, certainly $120 billion (although China's real spending is also considerably higher than the official - dollar - figure, probably atleast $250 billion).

    On the other hand, countries like Saudi Arabia and Brazil are at the other extreme... I guess comparing military spending figures is valid when you make comparisons between Western-aligned countries (with fully professional militaries), but past that they are often extremely misleading.

    Heck, even look at my country, Finland. The Finnish military focuses on conventional conflicts, area defence (or whatever the English term is), unlike most of the other small Western countries. Military spending is very modest, probably a few billion USD, way below 2% of GDP.

    They can still afford 60 F-18 Hornets (major Western European powers only have maybe 4 times more fighters, and Brazil, with its $20 billion actually HAS LESS 4th generation fighters... somehow) and 200 Leopard 2s (almost as many as major Western European countries) + conscription.

    Of course, they don't have long-range air defence systems, Navy is very small and power projection capabilites are non-existent, but those major Western European powers would have very hard time to invade Finland, it would probably be impossible without long-term and costly build-up, atleast it would tie-up most of their forces, even if the geographical distances were shorter and even though those powers spend something like 20-30 times more on the military and while having over 10 times larger populations.

    Austin

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  Austin on Fri May 26, 2017 11:53 am

    Interview with Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borisov

    http://redstar.ru/index.php/component/k2/item/33248-oruzhie-nadjozhnoe-i-sovremennoe
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    franco

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  franco on Thu Jun 15, 2017 8:50 am

    WASHINGTON, June 15 - RIA Novosti. Russia will reduce defense spending in the next three years to 2.7-2.8% of GDP, said Russian President Vladimir Putin.

    "There is an understanding that the economy is the most efficient in the state, therefore, the army should be compact, but modern and efficient, but we are already spending a lot." These expenditures reached more than three percent last year, "Putin said in an interview Director Oliver Stone in the film, shown on the television channel Showtime .

    The interview was recorded from July 2015 to February 2017.

    According to him, "this is for us and so much." "This year, the main article of saving the budget is just due to the preservation of defense spending, which will gradually return to 2.7-2.8% of GDP in the next three years," Putin added.

    NOTE: my take on this is that the present projected budget for 2018-2020 remains close to as is and then the 2021-2025 period decreases to below 3%. That would mean around 2,400-2,500 billion rubles a year.
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  miketheterrible on Thu Jun 15, 2017 11:37 pm

    franco wrote:WASHINGTON, June 15 - RIA Novosti. Russia will reduce defense spending in the next three years to 2.7-2.8% of GDP, said Russian President Vladimir Putin.

    "There is an understanding that the economy is the most efficient in the state, therefore, the army should be compact, but modern and efficient, but we are already spending a lot." These expenditures reached more than three percent last year, "Putin said in an interview Director Oliver Stone in the film, shown on the television channel Showtime .

    The interview was recorded from July 2015 to February 2017.

    According to him, "this is for us and so much." "This year, the main article of saving the budget is just due to the preservation of defense spending, which will gradually return to 2.7-2.8% of GDP in the next three years," Putin added.

    NOTE: my take on this is that the present projected budget for 2018-2020 remains close to as is and then the 2021-2025 period decreases to below 3%. That would mean around 2,400-2,500 billion rubles a year.

    This is the figure that Austin had in the last posts.  What Putin said is exactly what was said earlier - that by 2019 defense spending would be about 2.8% of GDP so roughly 2019 - 2 816 027 500 000 Rubles.  SAP2025 is 17T Rubles. So you are about right, 2.5T Rubles a year after 2020.

    Austin

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  Austin on Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:02 am

    Interview with Finance Minister on Military Budget


    — According to the Finance Ministry’s estimates, the newly-extended rearmament program until 2020 has to fit into the 14-trillion ruble ($234 billion) allotment. The Defense Ministry had asked for 20 trillion ($335 billion). Whose arithmetic is better?


    We will be able to see that after some time, when we make it clear the amount of resources actually available. In any case, we should proceed from the realities and remember that economic security is no less important than military security

    The coming three years will not be easy ones. At this point we foresee the first increases in the budget’s incomes will be in 2020. Then we will be able to afford more.

    — At whose expense?


    The economy’s overall growth remains first and foremost. We are to ease the imbalance that developed due to the slump in budget incomes amid an unfavorable environment in foreign markets and the sanctions taken against our country. The spending obligations accrued in the previous years, when the country was selling its oil for $100 per barrel are really large ones. Now the budget deficit has to be reduced, because it is financed with our reserves. The thrift box is not bottomless. We cannot afford to spend it all and have nothing left for a rainy day. The risks are too high. The assumed commitments inside the country are not the only thing I’m talking about. Foreign investors keep a close eye on the situation. They evaluate likely scenarios, too. Will the government raise taxes and at whose expense will it be honoring its obligations?

    Our prime task is to balance the budget. We comprehend a balanced budget as one where incomes are equal to spending minus the interest on loans. In other words, the budget deficit is to constitute about 0.8% of the GDP. This poses no risks – economic, social or political. We can refinance such a deficit without tapping government reserves, to service it with further borrowings, without resorting to massive privatization transactions like those we saw in 2016.

    More:
    http://tass.com/economy/952996
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  miketheterrible on Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:11 am

    That question doesn't make sense since the extension of the SAP2020 is till 2025.  Unless that is exactly what they are saying.  Also interesting how it has been increased by 2T rubles from 12T to 14T from the finance ministry side.  But the defense ministry has been asking for 30T rubles, not 20T: http://tass.com/defense/947279

    But if it is 14T from 2020 to 2025, then that is a bit higher than 2.4T per year (2.8T per year).  If they mean by 8 years, then that is only 1.75T per year.  Which is below the 2.7 - 2.8% of Russias GDP that Putin stated. But if that is the budget from 2018 to 2025, and by 2020 they spend about 2.8% of GDP on defense, that would mean that after 2020, they would be spending about 1% of GDP on defense which is not exactly what is planned.

    So there is a lot of issues with what questions are being asked and what is going on. Unless translation is completely wrong.
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    franco

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  franco on Mon Jun 26, 2017 12:47 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:That question doesn't make sense since the extension of the SAP2020 is till 2025.  Unless that is exactly what they are saying.  Also interesting how it has been increased by 2T rubles from 12T to 14T from the finance ministry side.  But the defense ministry has been asking for 30T rubles, not 20T: http://tass.com/defense/947279

    But if it is 14T from 2020 to 2025, then that is a bit higher than 2.4T per year (2.8T per year).  If they mean by 8 years, then that is only 1.75T per year.  Which is below the 2.7 - 2.8% of Russias GDP that Putin stated.  But if that is the budget from 2018 to 2025, and by 2020 they spend about 2.8% of GDP on defense, that would mean that after 2020, they would be spending about 1% of GDP on defense which is not exactly what is planned.

    So there is a lot of issues with what questions are being asked and what is going on.  Unless translation is completely wrong.

    Military budgets in Russia are projected for 10 years but revised every 5 years for actual amounts.
    The 2011-2020 projected budget was to have been revised in 2015 for the 2016-2020 actual and 2016-2025 projected.
    This was put off due to the economic crisis.
    So they are doing a 2018-2020 actual with a 2018-2025 projection right now.
    The idea is long term planning coupled with short term reality.
    It will be revised again in 2020 for 2021-2030 projection.
    Clear as mud... right? thumbsup
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  miketheterrible on Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:35 pm

    franco wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:That question doesn't make sense since the extension of the SAP2020 is till 2025.  Unless that is exactly what they are saying.  Also interesting how it has been increased by 2T rubles from 12T to 14T from the finance ministry side.  But the defense ministry has been asking for 30T rubles, not 20T: http://tass.com/defense/947279

    But if it is 14T from 2020 to 2025, then that is a bit higher than 2.4T per year (2.8T per year).  If they mean by 8 years, then that is only 1.75T per year.  Which is below the 2.7 - 2.8% of Russias GDP that Putin stated.  But if that is the budget from 2018 to 2025, and by 2020 they spend about 2.8% of GDP on defense, that would mean that after 2020, they would be spending about 1% of GDP on defense which is not exactly what is planned.

    So there is a lot of issues with what questions are being asked and what is going on.  Unless translation is completely wrong.

    Military budgets in Russia are projected for 10 years but revised every 5 years for actual amounts.
    The 2011-2020 projected budget was to have been revised in 2015 for the 2016-2020 actual and 2016-2025 projected.
    This was put off due to the economic crisis.
    So they are doing a 2018-2020 actual with a 2018-2025 projection right now.
    The idea is long term planning coupled with short term reality.
    It will be revised again in 2020 for 2021-2030 projection.
    Clear as mud... right? thumbsup

    sort of.

    Problem is though, if they say 14T for it, that means for the next e years they will drop the funding from 2.5T to 1.75T, yes? So till 2020, they will be heavily under funded, even though initial agreement was 2.8% of GDP? Or will it continue to be the 2.5T and then by 2020, they will revise it?
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    franco

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  franco on Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:57 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:
    franco wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:That question doesn't make sense since the extension of the SAP2020 is till 2025.  Unless that is exactly what they are saying.  Also interesting how it has been increased by 2T rubles from 12T to 14T from the finance ministry side.  But the defense ministry has been asking for 30T rubles, not 20T: http://tass.com/defense/947279

    But if it is 14T from 2020 to 2025, then that is a bit higher than 2.4T per year (2.8T per year).  If they mean by 8 years, then that is only 1.75T per year.  Which is below the 2.7 - 2.8% of Russias GDP that Putin stated.  But if that is the budget from 2018 to 2025, and by 2020 they spend about 2.8% of GDP on defense, that would mean that after 2020, they would be spending about 1% of GDP on defense which is not exactly what is planned.

    So there is a lot of issues with what questions are being asked and what is going on.  Unless translation is completely wrong.

    Military budgets in Russia are projected for 10 years but revised every 5 years for actual amounts.
    The 2011-2020 projected budget was to have been revised in 2015 for the 2016-2020 actual and 2016-2025 projected.
    This was put off due to the economic crisis.
    So they are doing a 2018-2020 actual with a 2018-2025 projection right now.
    The idea is long term planning coupled with short term reality.
    It will be revised again in 2020 for 2021-2030 projection.
    Clear as mud... right? thumbsup

    sort of.

    Problem is though, if they say 14T for it, that means for the next e years they will drop the funding from 2.5T to 1.75T, yes? So till 2020, they will be heavily under funded, even though initial agreement was 2.8% of GDP? Or will it continue to be the 2.5T and then by 2020, they will revise it?

    Anything is possible. System is designed to be flexible to match present circumstances while working towards full filling future needs. Not only in regards to funds but also availability of industry and technology to match those dates. I'm sure when the 2011-2020 plan was put together they envisioned more Armata's, T-50, 20385, etc's then they will end up with but as the Marines like to preach "assess, adapt and overcome".

    Austin

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  Austin on Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:47 pm

    If money is a problem via Budget , They have two option borrow more money in terms of Debt , Russian Debt is one of the lowest in world around 14 % of GDP.

    Take money from Central Bank , CB has more than 400 Billion in Reserves , Even taking $50 billion into budget wont do much harm.

    Defence should be a priority in the next 10 years cant afford to go slag on that in the name of reducing budget deficit
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    kvs

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  kvs on Mon Jun 26, 2017 11:03 pm

    Austin wrote:If money is a problem via Budget , They have two option borrow more money in terms of Debt  , Russian Debt is one of the lowest in world around 14 % of GDP.

    Take money from Central Bank , CB has more than 400 Billion in Reserves , Even taking $50 billion into budget wont do much harm.

    Defence should be a priority in the next 10 years cant afford to go slag on that in the name of reducing budget deficit

    I totally agree. Enough of the grovelling at the feet of monetarist 5th columnists. No country on the planet follows monetarism
    and neither should Russia.
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  miketheterrible on Wed Jun 28, 2017 6:22 am

    Judging by how the ministry of Industry and Trade says and what Putin says, I think the budget for the procurement in 2018 - 2025 will be about 2.4T - 2.5T Rubles per year. Only because this is what people higher up than the economic minister is saying and the fact that most, even in the economic sectors, are warning about problems if they reduce the budget for procurement.

    But I was also reading that last year and this year, the amount provided for procurement is 1.8T - 1.7T rubles:

    http://tass.com/defense/947279

    The financing of the state armament acquisition program in 2011-2020 is about 20 trillion rubles ($345 billion). The defense procurement totaled 1.8 trillion rubles in 2016, 1.8 trillion rubles ($31 billion) in 2015 and 1.6 trillion ($27.4 billion) in 2014.

    Now, I am wondering, is this extension (The Proposed 14T to 20T) entirely on procurement on weapons or is there other things attached to this budget (housing and wages for staff, maintenance costs, etc)?
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    jhelb

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  jhelb on Wed Jun 28, 2017 3:13 pm

    Not sure if you guys noticed - Russian state armament programme to 2025 announced recently has Land Forces as top priority

    Austin

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  Austin on Wed Jun 28, 2017 3:21 pm

    jhelb wrote:Not sure if you guys noticed - Russian state armament programme to 2025 announced recently has Land Forces as top priority

    Yes has to be after the Ukraine and Syria Experience , Also Russia is a major continental power.

    Land Forces is top priority followed by Airforce and Navy in Previous SAP 2020 Land Forces was given the least money
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    jhelb

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  jhelb on Wed Jun 28, 2017 3:52 pm

    Austin wrote:
    Yes has to be after the Ukraine and Syria Experience , Also Russia is a major continental power.

    Land Forces is top priority followed by Airforce and Navy in Previous SAP 2020 Land Forces was given the least money

    Russian Ministry of Defence assumes that 65%+ of fires will be accomplished by artillery rather than air power
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  miketheterrible on Wed Jun 28, 2017 4:17 pm

    Air force and army are going to be priority. This was already stated - concentration on ground units, S-500 and aircrafts. Only logical. The navy is taking a back burner besides small ships and the strategic missile forces will be more or less at full readiness by 2020. That is also the most expensive one. There will be following procurement of newer missiles but not as many as before probably. The rail based icbm will probably start to take priority.
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    franco

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  franco on Wed Jun 28, 2017 10:43 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:Judging by how the ministry of Industry and Trade says and what Putin says, I think the budget for the procurement in 2018 - 2025 will be about 2.4T - 2.5T Rubles per year.  Only because this is what people higher up than the economic minister is saying and the fact that most, even in the economic sectors, are warning about problems if they reduce the budget for procurement.

    But I was also reading that last year and this year, the amount provided for procurement is 1.8T - 1.7T rubles:

    http://tass.com/defense/947279

    The financing of the state armament acquisition program in 2011-2020 is about 20 trillion rubles ($345 billion). The defense procurement totaled 1.8 trillion rubles in 2016, 1.8 trillion rubles ($31 billion) in 2015 and 1.6 trillion ($27.4 billion) in 2014.

    Now, I am wondering, is this extension (The Proposed 14T to 20T) entirely on procurement on weapons or is there other things attached to this budget (housing and wages for staff, maintenance costs, etc)?

    It has always been claimed by the West of hidden Russian defense spending. And they would have to with all the assets and employees that they have. If you check out number of civilian employees of the Russian Ministry of Defense and then compare it to Western armies, the ratio of civilian employees to servicemen is off the chart. But most don't realize the Russian military maintains whole cities and towns with all the services needed plus in their Medical Directive they maintain over 50 heath sanitariums, rest care homes and resorts for it's troops and veterans. Their repair companies employee thousands more etc.
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    George1

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  George1 on Wed Aug 16, 2017 1:52 pm

    Russian defense spending in 2018 will be reduced

    http://bmpd.livejournal.com/2788575.html


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    Austin

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  Austin on Wed Aug 16, 2017 1:57 pm

    Actually its a very short term myopic decision to reduce defence spending .....Defence Spending should not be less than 3-3.5 Trillion Roubles.

    Defense projects have longs gestation period typically 5-7 years so less spending today will show up 5 years later and no money spend then could rectify or speed it up.

    Russia can easily spend 3-3.5 trillion roubles if not from budget then borrow from central bank 1 trillion rouble each year they have huge forex and its growing , Defense Spending will only go into National Economy and Civilian Economy and MIC is diversifying they should not cut spending now or for next 10 years but spend each year 3 trillion to 30 trillion rouble in next 10 years.

    No point in keeping Public Debt low at cost of national security and development it will hurt russia big time in years ahead. Even a Public Debt of 30 % of GDP is considered Low and Managable , Russia is still at 13 % today

    Putin is acting Penny Wise Pound Foolish !   Hope he does not stand for Election and some one like Rogozin stands instead he is more Nationalist and Understands things that Putin does not.

    Kick Medvedev/Putin Duo and CBR Thugs out from Kremlin
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    kvs

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  kvs on Thu Aug 17, 2017 4:59 am

    Austin wrote:Actually its a very short term myopic decision to reduce defence spending .....Defence Spending should not be less than 3-3.5 Trillion Roubles.

    Defense projects have longs gestation period typically 5-7 years so less spending today will show up 5 years later and no money spend then could rectify or speed it up.

    Russia can easily spend 3-3.5 trillion roubles if not from budget then borrow from central bank 1 trillion rouble each year they have huge forex and its growing , Defense Spending will only go into National Economy and Civilian Economy and MIC is diversifying they should not cut spending now or for next 10 years but spend each year 3 trillion to 30 trillion rouble in next 10 years.

    No point in keeping Public Debt low at cost of national security and development it will hurt russia big time in years ahead. Even a Public Debt of 30 % of GDP is considered Low and Managable , Russia is still at 13 % today

    Putin is acting Penny Wise Pound Foolish !   Hope he does not stand for Election and some one like Rogozin stands instead he is more Nationalist and Understands things that Putin does not.

    Kick Medvedev/Putin Duo and CBR Thugs out from Kremlin

    Russia should indeed run up a ruble debt at very low or zero interest rate from the CBR to finance critical military spending. The
    problem is that people in Russia are still living like it was before 1990 in many ways. They do not fully grasp financing. Taking out
    loans is required to reduce opportunity cost. Pinching pennies today will get you messed up badly because you let important
    opportunities (and in fact necessities) slide. This dynamic is readily evident from business financial activity. Borrowing is
    a necessity and not some luxury or fiscal irresponsibility.

    Of course total reliance on borrowing for GDP growth is stupid and is messing up the 1st world. But military spending is
    a small part of the GDP and the associated debt will be manageable when the re-arming period is over.
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  miketheterrible on Thu Aug 17, 2017 5:21 am

    kvs wrote:
    Austin wrote:Actually its a very short term myopic decision to reduce defence spending .....Defence Spending should not be less than 3-3.5 Trillion Roubles.

    Defense projects have longs gestation period typically 5-7 years so less spending today will show up 5 years later and no money spend then could rectify or speed it up.

    Russia can easily spend 3-3.5 trillion roubles if not from budget then borrow from central bank 1 trillion rouble each year they have huge forex and its growing , Defense Spending will only go into National Economy and Civilian Economy and MIC is diversifying they should not cut spending now or for next 10 years but spend each year 3 trillion to 30 trillion rouble in next 10 years.

    No point in keeping Public Debt low at cost of national security and development it will hurt russia big time in years ahead. Even a Public Debt of 30 % of GDP is considered Low and Managable , Russia is still at 13 % today

    Putin is acting Penny Wise Pound Foolish !   Hope he does not stand for Election and some one like Rogozin stands instead he is more Nationalist and Understands things that Putin does not.

    Kick Medvedev/Putin Duo and CBR Thugs out from Kremlin

    Russia should indeed run up a ruble debt at very low or zero interest rate from the CBR to finance critical military spending.    The
    problem is that people in Russia are still living like it was before 1990 in many ways.   They do not fully grasp financing.   Taking out
    loans is required to reduce opportunity cost.   Pinching pennies today will get you messed up badly because you let important
    opportunities (and in fact necessities) slide.   This dynamic is readily evident from business financial activity.   Borrowing is
    a necessity and not some luxury or fiscal irresponsibility.  

    Of course total reliance on borrowing for GDP growth is stupid and is messing up the 1st world.    But military spending is
    a small part of the GDP and the associated debt will be manageable when the re-arming period is over.  

    As was said in the article posted in the economic thread - Western economic growth is entirely upon debt growth while Russia follows the same methods as done in most of Asia excluding China and Japan. Russia is showing real GDP growth.

    Also, I don't understand the complaints. Austin posted before hand the entire breakdown of the SAP 2020 and defense spending and it was already predicted since what, last year or early this year that 2018 would be around 2.9 - 2.8% of GDP? As it was posted by Johnin in the economic thread, that is exactly what is being said here - 2.9% of GDP is going to defense spending so it will be around 2.7T rubles. So that is why Putin said it wouldn't affect the procurement plan.

    Also, lets break it down. Of SAP2020 19T, some of that went to infrastructure projects and the strategic missile forces. Since before SAP, strategic missile forces was around 70% or so modernized and ready. Now it is over 90%. Meaning that they will start to reduce spending on procurement of the ballistic missiles and waiting to procure when Sarmat and the railway mobile system is completed. Other thing is too, if the numbers I am reading from Franco are correct, Russia has quite a lot of Su-27's and MiG-29's still in service that could obtain upgrades used in currently more advanced systems (Su-30SM, Su-35S and MiG-29SMT), and if they decide to upgrade those jets, they can reduce costs significantly and get jets that are modern and capable in future conflicts (especially now they are showcasing new thermal pods and could use new radar like Zhuk-MFSA and such). Much like the T-72B3 upgrades that brought the T-72B into capabilities seen in T-90A.
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  miketheterrible on Sat Aug 19, 2017 6:09 pm

    https://vpk.name/news/189695_minoboronyi_rf_v_2016_godu_sekonomilo_14_mlrd_rublei_byudzhetnyih_sredstv.html

    The defense Ministry in 2016 saved 14 billion rubles of budgetary funds

    The Ministry of defence of Russia the programme "Effective army" saved 14.2 billion rubles from the budget, the press service of the defense Ministry.

    The overall economic effect of the program amounted to no less than 36.7 billion rubles.

    "It (the program. — RNS) aimed at improving the efficiency of budget spending by reducing labor and energy intensive processes, saving human, material and time resources and improvement of management processes and logistics", — said the press service.

    "Effective army" involves the introduction of modern information technologies, optimizing the use of resources and improving the social protection of employees of the Department.
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    GarryB

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  GarryB on Mon Aug 21, 2017 10:52 am

    A military that just gets money thrown at them gets fat and lazy... reducing budgets is not a bad thing... it means the military will look harder at what it is doing with its money to ensure it cuts fat and unnecessary programmes and keeps a focus on what is most important.

    The reality is that reduced funds wont kill any programmes, it will just extend deadlines and delay some programmes.

    Certain programmes actually benefit from a delay... the Mi-28NM of 2017 is much better than the Mi-28A of 1989.


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    eehnie

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  eehnie on Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:30 am

    George1 wrote:Russian defense spending in 2018 will be reduced

    http://bmpd.livejournal.com/2788575.html

    The commented in the article very likely affects to the costs of the war in Syria. If I'm not wrong the goal is to finnish the operation vs ISIS in 2017. Also some pocket more can be finnished by the end of 2017. Related to the War in Syria:

    - The spending in fighting operations can be reduced.
    - The spending in ammunition can be reduced.
    - The spending in transport operations for procurement of Syria can be reduced.

    Russia supplied Syria since 2011 and much more intensely since 2015 with the material of the types that have been decommisioned in the last 10-15 years instead of scrapping it. With the addition of some material of Sovietic origin from other countries of Asia, the amounts of this material from Russia to Syria would be more than enough to keep the arsenals of the Syrian Land Forces in a level similar to the level of equipment they had in 2011 (not only to keep the active units fighting). At this point, by the end of 2017 all this material is likely in Syria, and as consequence the transport operations can be also reduced very significantly.

    And not related to the War in Syria:

    - The definition of the research, development and procurement in the new State Armament Program 2018-2025 will likely cut the way to weak projects (technologically and militarily) that will not be accepted for procurement and wich development and promotion will be stopped if they have not success to export.

    This is unlikely to affect to technologically advanced projects. Mostly this is likely to affect to many low technological level (in relative terms) and redundant projects of land, air and sea manned vehicles under 15 tons.
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    JohninMK

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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

    Post  JohninMK on Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:17 pm


    This is a version in English. Very interesting and long article covering all the good bits. These are the first paras, more at link


    In the current issue of the journal Expert, an interview with Alexei Khazbiev with Deputy Director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies Konstantin Makienko was published, dedicated to the financing and priority areas of the State Arms Program (GPV) until 2025, as well as military-technical cooperation between Russia and foreign countries.

    In September, President Vladimir Putin is expected to approve the new State Arms Program (GPV) until 2025. But it is already clear that its funding will inevitably have to be sharply reduced. At first, our military demanded that they allocate about 30 trillion rubles for the re-equipment of the army and navy, but then reduced their requests to 22 trillion. Nevertheless, even such an amount seemed excessive to the Ministry of Finance, and after tough picks in the government, the financiers cut it to 17 trillion rubles. We note that this is almost 3 trillion rubles less than is spent on the current GPO-2020. But the most important is the redistribution within the new program of expenditures on certain types of armed forces and the army. If till now our naval commanders literally bathed in money, and the Ground Forces and the Airborne Forces were in the position of poor relatives, now these roles will be reversed to the exact opposite. So, in the framework of the still active Navy program, 4.7 trillion rubles were allocated, and now the fleet will receive only 2.6 trillion rubles. But the financing of the Army and Airborne Forces will increase from 2.6 trillion rubles to 4.2 trillion rubles, which is almost a quarter of the total costs of the new program. Such an increase in expenditures under this heading is due to the tense situation in Ukraine, Central Asia and Syria, as well as the need for massive purchases of armored platforms of a new generation - Armata, Kurganets and Boomerang. About what other equipment we need to create and buy, how to increase the sales of Russian arms in the foreign market and whether under our current conditions our defense industry can conduct a conversion, Konstantin Makienko, deputy director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, told in an interview to Expert .

    - How justified and expedient is the drastic reduction in expenditures under the GPV until 2025 in the current situation?

    - In itself, the reduction in spending on the purchase of weapons and military equipment is justified and inevitable. First, during the implementation of the current state program, there will be significant saturation with modern or new weapons in several financially capacious segments. By 2020, for example, five of the eight strategic submarines of the Borey class and three of the seven Ash-class submarines should be built. Percentage of eighty will be covered by the requirements of the VCS for tactical aviation and helicopters. Not a single SPG in the post-Soviet period has been performed as successfully as the current one. Even if the target indicator - equipping troops with new equipment by 70%, is not achieved, it can already be safely asserted that this indicator will make up at least 60-65% for most segments. One has only to bear in mind that the concepts of "new" and "modern" weapons are not identical. For example, the MiG-29SMT fighters delivered to the military reconnaissance station are, without a doubt, new-generation cars built without the use of production reserves. But are modern aircraft, the armament system of which is built on the basis of a radar with mechanical scanning of the beam, is an open question.

    We must understand that the GPO-2020 is successfully implemented in an environment of economic stagnation, and in some years both a recession and a sharp drop in prices for hydrocarbons. But this success created the prerequisites for reducing the volume of GPV-2025. Anatoly Serdyukov and Nikolay Makarov had strong arguments on their hands in their polemics with Alexei Kudrin about the amount of necessary funding for the current program. Today, it is much more difficult for Sergei Shoigu and Yuri Borisov to prove the need to save the costs of purchasing arms and military equipment in the same volume, as the country's financial capabilities have significantly decreased. GPV-2020 was typed at an oil price of about one hundred dollars per barrel, today this price is even nominally twice as low. That is, on the one hand, the country can not spend money on the purchase of equipment in the same volume, and on the other - this is no longer an urgent need, as in 2009.


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    Re: Military budget of the Russian Federation

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