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    Mistral News thread

    Mike E
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    Mistral News thread - Page 18 Empty Re: Mistral News thread

    Post  Mike E Mon Sep 08, 2014 5:41 am

    Does anybody know how much it would cost France if they completely cancelled the Mistral deal? I've heard figures ranging from one billion $ all the way up to 13 billion!

    Obviously, they will pay a fine for delaying, but I believe that is separate...

    Also, what do you (all) think of this(?); 

    Mistral row: France risks losing Rafale contract in India

    A leading French analyst believes that France’s credibility as a reliable supplier of weapons is at stake if it refuses to send the Mistral-class amphibious warships to Russia.

    France risks losing a contract to supply 126 fighter jets to India due to its refusal to deliver Mistral-class ships to Russia, a leading French analyst told the Delovoi Peterburg website. French officials said this week that they will not deliver the first Mistral-class amphibious warship that Russia had ordered as part of a $1.7 billion agreement for weapons sale.
    Dubien believes that the decision of French President Francois Hollande, to suspend the delivery of the Mistral, is not final, and was taken under tremendous pressure from the United States and Germany. He added that a final decision would be taken by November on the delivery of the warships, and a lot would depend on how the situation in Ukraine panned out.The biggest repercussion would be a loss of reputation for France as a reliable supplier, Arnaud Dubien, a Russia research associate at the Institut de relations Internationales et Strategiques said. “Officials from the French Ministry of Defence, in private conversations acknowledge that if they fail to deliver the Mistral to Russia, then France will lose its contract to supply 126 fighter jets to India,” Dubien said.
    A source in the Indian Defence Ministry said that India was “watching the developments closely.” The source added it was too early to say if this would factor into the government’s decision to sign a contract. “When such a large amount of money is paid and then a supplier uses geopolitics to delay or suspend deliveries, it does raise eyebrows,” the source, who was not authorised to talk to the media, said. The Indian Ministry of Defence could not be immediately reached for official comment.
    India is continuing its final negotiations for acquiring 126 French Rafale fighters in a deal that would cost around $22 billion. France’s Dassault Aviation won a bid to supply India with Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircrafts and a final contract is being dubbed as the “mother of all deals,” by many sections of the Indian media.  Russia, Britain, the U.S. and Sweden have all made attempts to re-enter the race to sell their aircrafts.
    Indian Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha told the Hindustan Times that a deal for the Rafale is “going to happen soon.” Industry watchers in Delhi however say that there will be growing pressure to reconsider France given the volte-face the country made this week when it came to the supply of the Mistral ships to Russia. 
    Mike E
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    Post  Mike E Mon Sep 08, 2014 6:23 am

    Quoting RT;

    "If we fail to deliver the ship on time, or not deliver it at all, our penalty for not adhering to the contract might exceed 10 billion euros ($13 billion). That will be a disaster – both to the economy and the reputation. The contract is important for France, and for Saint-Nazaire in particular," Blanchard said.

     - http://rt.com/news/185820-protest-against-mistral-suspension/

    russia
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Mon Sep 08, 2014 6:26 am

    Mike E wrote:Does anybody know how much it would cost France if they completely cancelled the Mistral deal? I've heard figures ranging from one billion $ all the way up to 13 billion!

    Obviously, they will pay a fine for delaying, but I believe that is separate...

    Also, what do you (all) think of this(?); 

    Mistral row: France risks losing Rafale contract in India

    A leading French analyst believes that France’s credibility as a reliable supplier of weapons is at stake if it refuses to send the Mistral-class amphibious warships to Russia.

    France risks losing a contract to supply 126 fighter jets to India due to its refusal to deliver Mistral-class ships to Russia, a leading French analyst told the Delovoi Peterburg website. French officials said this week that they will not deliver the first Mistral-class amphibious warship that Russia had ordered as part of a $1.7 billion agreement for weapons sale.
    Dubien believes that the decision of French President Francois Hollande, to suspend the delivery of the Mistral, is not final, and was taken under tremendous pressure from the United States and Germany. He added that a final decision would be taken by November on the delivery of the warships, and a lot would depend on how the situation in Ukraine panned out.The biggest repercussion would be a loss of reputation for France as a reliable supplier, Arnaud Dubien, a Russia research associate at the Institut de relations Internationales et Strategiques said. “Officials from the French Ministry of Defence, in private conversations acknowledge that if they fail to deliver the Mistral to Russia, then France will lose its contract to supply 126 fighter jets to India,” Dubien said.
    A source in the Indian Defence Ministry said that India was “watching the developments closely.” The source added it was too early to say if this would factor into the government’s decision to sign a contract. “When such a large amount of money is paid and then a supplier uses geopolitics to delay or suspend deliveries, it does raise eyebrows,” the source, who was not authorised to talk to the media, said. The Indian Ministry of Defence could not be immediately reached for official comment.
    India is continuing its final negotiations for acquiring 126 French Rafale fighters in a deal that would cost around $22 billion. France’s Dassault Aviation won a bid to supply India with Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircrafts and a final contract is being dubbed as the “mother of all deals,” by many sections of the Indian media.  Russia, Britain, the U.S. and Sweden have all made attempts to re-enter the race to sell their aircrafts.
    Indian Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha told the Hindustan Times that a deal for the Rafale is “going to happen soon.” Industry watchers in Delhi however say that there will be growing pressure to reconsider France given the volte-face the country made this week when it came to the supply of the Mistral ships to Russia. 

    I was supportive of the Mistral Deal, but if it fails than it could turn out better than expected:

    1.) The blueprints were already transferred, so Russian Shipyards could launch Mistral equivalent carriers within 2-3 years.

    2.) Russia will get more money back if France fails to deliver.

    3.) With the failure of the Mistral deal, we could potentially see the failure of the Rafale deal and we might see the opening of the door for Mig-35's to take their place. We can not forget the Modi went through similar disrespect from the West as Putin is going through now.

    4.) This weakens NATO more than it would Russia, because Russia could make the equivalent ships but at a cheaper price, while at the same time it will weaken a leading NATO power's military industry, especially if it costs them the Rafale deal.
    Mike E
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    Post  Mike E Mon Sep 08, 2014 6:34 am

    Yeah, like I said earlier, it could be good for Russia!


    1) Not only that, but it would allow Russia to make more additions and modifications to the ships... Maybe some more defencive missiles, and the naval Pantsir etc. - The addition of a launch system for planes would be nice...

    2) 10 billion+ could be put to good use in the defense department. - Very ironic considering the pressure on France to cancel the deal on order to keep the Russian navy form "gowing". That could buy more Mistrals, a Yasen or two, more modernizations etc!

    3) Wouldn't that be great! MiG-35 needs some more sales...

    4) Yep!  russia
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    Post  Admin Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:43 am

    Mike E wrote:
    navyfield wrote:hey genious ,France doesnt use Russias gas at all... just pointing that out Laughing

    Hey genius, go do some research instead of spewing crap. Even if it didn't power France (it does), it would affect the EU and Euro etc.

    Dont make it personal.  France is a nuclear country, its use of gaz is minimal and whatever it gets from us is easily replaced by Qatar and UAE.  They have the largest energy company in the world and the biggest LNG tankers.
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    Post  medo Mon Sep 08, 2014 4:16 pm

    We will have to wait for few months. Anyway, Hollande have very strong opposition at home and with stupid moves, he will have a lot of problems at home. France also sell majority of weapons outside NATO, not inside NATO and EU and with such wrong moves will French military industry have a lot of problems in international market. Their weapons are not cheap and being seen as unreliable partners, they will not sell much in the future.
    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Mon Sep 08, 2014 6:07 pm

    Vladimir79 wrote:
    Mike E wrote:
    navyfield wrote:hey genious ,France doesnt use Russias gas at all... just pointing that out Laughing

    Hey genius, go do some research instead of spewing crap. Even if it didn't power France (it does), it would affect the EU and Euro etc.

    Dont make it personal.  France is a nuclear country, its use of gaz is minimal and whatever it gets from us is easily replaced by Qatar and UAE.  They have the largest energy company in the world and the biggest LNG tankers.

    LNG tankers are not anywhere cost effective, and are several times less efficient form of delivery of gas compared to pipelines.
    Mike E
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    Post  Mike E Mon Sep 08, 2014 7:54 pm

    Vladimir79 wrote:
    Mike E wrote:
    navyfield wrote:hey genious ,France doesnt use Russias gas at all... just pointing that out Laughing

    Hey genius, go do some research instead of spewing crap. Even if it didn't power France (it does), it would affect the EU and Euro etc.

    Dont make it personal.  France is a nuclear country, its use of gaz is minimal and whatever it gets from us is easily replaced by Qatar and UAE.  They have the largest energy company in the world and the biggest LNG tankers.

    Very true, but that doesn't mean it won't hurt... Besides, the rest of the EU is very Russian gas dependant. - Leads to a weaker Euro and economy, both of which would affect France.
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    Post  navyfield Tue Sep 09, 2014 10:04 pm

    once again the weakest link -ru navy- is the target and will not get new ships.there is nothing russia can do about it. france is not dependent on russian gas. too bad.
    Mike E
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    Post  Mike E Tue Sep 09, 2014 11:53 pm

    navyfield wrote:once again the weakest link -ru navy- is the target and will not get new ships.there is nothing russia can do about it. france is not dependent on russian gas. too bad.
    Uhhhh, what are you talking about? They receive new ships every month! France while not "dependant" on Russian gas, still uses a good bit of it. More importantly, the EU is dependant on Russian gas...
    higurashihougi
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    Post  higurashihougi Wed Sep 10, 2014 10:09 am

    Mike E wrote:
    navyfield wrote:once again the weakest link -ru navy- is the target and will not get new ships.there is nothing russia can do about it. france is not dependent on russian gas. too bad.
    Uhhhh, what are you talking about? They receive new ships every month! France while not "dependant" on Russian gas, still uses a good bit of it. More importantly, the EU is dependant on Russian gas...

    EU is relied on Russian gas and France is relied on EU.

    End of story.
    Mike E
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    Post  Mike E Wed Sep 10, 2014 4:39 pm

    higurashihougi wrote:
    Mike E wrote:
    navyfield wrote:once again the weakest link -ru navy- is the target and will not get new ships.there is nothing russia can do about it. france is not dependent on russian gas. too bad.
    Uhhhh, what are you talking about? They receive new ships every month! France while not "dependant" on Russian gas, still uses a good bit of it. More importantly, the EU is dependant on Russian gas...

    EU is relied on Russian gas and France is relied on EU.

    End of story.
    He'll never believe you...
    George1
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    Post  George1 Sun Sep 14, 2014 12:01 am

    First Mistral-Class Ship Built for Russia Sets Off for Sea Trials: Reports

    MOSCOW, September 13 (RIA Novosti) - The Mistral-class helicopter carrier, the Vladivostok, carrying some 200 Russian sailors on Saturday left the French port of Saint-Nazaire to pass a series of tests.

    The Vladivostok had left docks at 3:30 a.m. local time (1:30 GMT), but was forced to wait until the tide thus eventually sailing out to sea at 7:20 a.m. (5:20 GMT) accompanied by two tugboats, Agence France-Presse reported.

    This is the first time the ship goes to sea since its arrival to Saint-Nazaire in June where two crews of Russian sailors, a total of 400 crew members, have been awaiting sea trials.

    The $1.6 billion contract to supply the Mistral-class ships between the French ship-building company DCNS and Russia's state-run arms exporter Rosoboronexport was signed in June of 2011. The first carrier, the Vladivostok is to be operated by the Russian Navy in 2014, while the second ship, the Sevastopol will arrive in 2015. While the United States were against the deal, DCNS insisted that Western sanctions imposed on Russia for its role in Ukraine not prohibit the construction and transfer of Mistral ships.

    Last week, France threatened to suspend the supply of the helicopter carriers, linking its decision to the crisis in Ukraine, claiming Moscow's direct involvement. Later, a French government spokesman told RIA Novosti that the delivery of the ship is not officially suspended and that French President Francois Hollande was simply outlining his political stance. Hollande stated he would not approve of the transfer of the vessel in November should the situation in Ukraine not improve. Hollande later stated he would make the decision in late October. The president added that the two conditions for the delivery of the ship is an observed ceasefire in Ukraine, as well as a political settlement agreement. The French President also stressed that the sanctions adopted by the European Union have never prevented the delivery of the helicopter carrier to Russia.
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    Post  George1 Sun Sep 14, 2014 3:59 am

    September 13, 2014. Channel "1 TV". France, Saint-Nazaire. Ship "Vladivostok", type Mistral, with the Russian crew went to sea for testing.

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    Post  arpakola Mon Sep 15, 2014 4:44 pm

    delete
    George1
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    Post  George1 Wed Sep 17, 2014 2:19 pm

    France to float out 2nd Russian Mistral warship in 2014 — defense ministry

    KRASNOARMEISK (Moscow Region), September 17. /ITAR-TASS/. France will float out the second Mistral-class amphibious assault ships being built for the Russian Navy in 2014, Russian deputy defense minister said on Wednesday.

    "The work on the second warship is going as planned. It will be floated out this year," Yury Borisov said.

    The French government did not issue any official notifications to Russia on severing an agreement on supplying Mistral-type helicopter carriers Yuri Borisov told reporters.

    “They would certainly notify us on the causes and other things if they really wanted to sever the contract,” he said. “But so far there have been no signals from them.”

    When asked about a possible place for signing a deed of conveyance of the first ship, Borisov said: “Well, I think the document will be signed where the ship is being built.”

    Works under the project for the first Mistral were coming to an end with a small delay but still their pace complied with the programme for the ship’s completion, he said.

    He also mentioned the prospects for building the third and fourth ships in France but admitted the absence of any details on the issue.

    “It’s important for us to get the first hips now and see the practical benefits from having it,” Borisov said. “Only then it’ll be possible to decide on the third and fourth ships.”

    “At this phase, we have a contract for the first two ones and we’ll wait and see then,” he said.

    Russia and France signed the €1.2 billion ($1.6 billion) contract for two French-built Mistral-class helicopter carriers in June 2011. The first ship, named Vladivostok, was floated out in October 2013. In September 2014, the ship has gone on sea trials with a Russian crew onboard.

    French President Francois Hollande suspended the delivery of the two helicopter carriers to Russia in early September because of the events in eastern Ukraine and said that the final delivery on the Mistral contract will be made in late October.
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    Post  Mike E Wed Sep 17, 2014 4:10 pm

    What hypocrites... At least Russia will get the discount.
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    Post  medo Wed Sep 17, 2014 4:40 pm

    If France cancel the contract, Russia should take back their payment, but could leave penalties money for buying license to build their own Mistrals in Russia in needed quantities.
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    Post  Mike E Wed Sep 17, 2014 5:50 pm

    medo wrote:If France cancel the contract, Russia should take back their payment, but could leave penalties money for buying license to build their own Mistrals in Russia in needed quantities.
    A win-win either way basically!

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    Post  magnumcromagnon Wed Sep 17, 2014 7:08 pm

    medo wrote:If France cancel the contract, Russia should take back their payment, but could leave penalties money for buying license to build their own Mistrals in Russia in needed quantities.

    There's no need to buy license production rights, they already have the Mistral's blueprints and seeing how France is so keen on applying sanctions on Russia for unsubstantiated claims of Russian involvement in the Ukrainian Civil War, then Russia shouldn't have to go out its way to buy a license and it will be cheaper to produce locally.  Russia should:

    1.) Force France to pay the full penalty for stalling on deliveries, and cancel the deal. Take the money and run.

    2.) ...Then immediately start Russian production of Mistral carriers with the obtained blueprints, and refuse to pay license claiming that French sanctions on the Russian Federation forced Russia not to respect French IP/licensing rights as there is no legal and economic reasoning to maintain them if Russia is heavily sanctioned by France. Hell they should sell the blueprints to China, and Iran as a big middle-finger to the EscarGauls!
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    Post  Viktor Wed Sep 17, 2014 7:12 pm

    This is a win-win for Russia. Penalties are so large that France was happy to pay 8bin$ to Americans as a punishment that French bank traded with Iran just not to cancel Mistral deal with Russia. Besides India is closly watching and I would be surprised to see it signed the Rafale deal if French cancel the deal of even before it.
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Wed Sep 17, 2014 7:24 pm

    Viktor wrote:This is a win-win for Russia. Penalties are so large that France was happy to pay 8bin$ to Americans as a punishment that French bank traded with Iran just not to cancel Mistral deal with Russia. Besides India is closly watching and I would be surprised to see it signed the Rafale deal if French cancel the deal of even before it.

    It was clear the BNParibas case was politically motivated, and I think the reason that the French fry's haven't completely cancelled the Mistral deals is that the EscarGauls realized that if they cancel it, Modi may read the writing on the wall and consider France to be a unreliable arms contractor and may very well cancel the Rafale deal. This may very well lead to a complete thermodynamic implosion of the French arms industry, which will work very much in both America and Russia's favor.
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    Post  Mike E Wed Sep 17, 2014 9:20 pm

    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    Viktor wrote:This is a win-win for Russia. Penalties are so large that France was happy to pay 8bin$ to Americans as a punishment that French bank traded with Iran just not to cancel Mistral deal with Russia. Besides India is closly watching and I would be surprised to see it signed the Rafale deal if French cancel the deal of even before it.

    It was clear the BNParibas case was politically motivated, and I think the reason that the French fry's haven't completely cancelled the Mistral deals is that the EscarGauls realized that if they cancel it, Modi may read the writing on the wall and consider France to be a unreliable arms contractor and may very well cancel the Rafale deal. This may very well lead to a complete thermodynamic implosion of the French arms industry, which will work very much in both America and Russia's favor.
    They are in the dictionary-definition of "between a rock and a hard place" when it comes to this deal. My guess is that both ships will be delivered at a cost of .6 billion $ due to the delay fines, and that the others will be completed in Russia.
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    Post  sepheronx Thu Sep 18, 2014 7:20 pm

    http://en.itar-tass.com/world/750186

    I dont think there was anything about Ukraine mentioned in tge contracts. Putin needs to put his foot down and state that either delivor or deal with consequences.

    EU wants to cut ties to Russia. So Russia should cut ties to EU, starting with the energy and minerals.
    Mike E
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    Post  Mike E Thu Sep 18, 2014 7:46 pm

    sepheronx wrote:http://en.itar-tass.com/world/750186

    I dont think there was anything about Ukraine mentioned in tge contracts. Putin needs to put his foot down and state that either delivor or deal with consequences.

    EU wants to cut ties to Russia. So Russia should cut ties to EU, starting with the energy and minerals.
    At least Hollande seems to be "warming up" compared with this previous remarks. - He easily could, and I wouldn't be surprised.......

    Great point.

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