Russian special military operation in Ukraine #54

Remember that Putin is actively encouraging other countries to get their prey.
He was saying that way too many times on the way to many occasions.

From the Russkie perspective, core Banderastan is a pain in the ass, and would have been one.
Plus there is hardly anything of worth to bother there.

There is only one serious issue with the scenario.
As far as Slovakia, Hungary and Romania have their citizens there, owning passports and speaking the language.
Those are Slovaks, Hungarians, and Romanians unfortunate to live in that shithole for generations.
All can be absorbed in the blink of an eye, and as we are dealing with small areas and populations, all three countries can afford the reconciliation.

Galizia is a different animal.
There are no Poles there - have been ethnically cleansed.
The population living there does not speak Polish. Don't consider themselves Poles.
And are in general a bunch of banderites.
The sole idea of pushing Poland to absorb those territories is madness.
It is madness of a different kind.
As the Banderastan will cease to exist one way or another, the ram to be used towards Russia will cease to exist as well.
Even if this war ends today, what is left is a depopulated shithole that will have to be subsidized by its puppet masters for years to come.
But if someone will be crazy enough to make any kind of "federation" or "commonwealth" of the Banderastan with Poland ... well ...
They will get a 50 mln population, extremely hostile towards Russia, being at its borders.
Yes, I can believe that the musters of the puppets can consider this type of scenario, to create one more ram against Russkie, using next Slavs stupid enough to take the bait.
Every single Polish politician who will push this idea - is a traitor. As easy as that.

It's not been a good week for the Ukrainian artillery, in two days they lost 1 Archer, 1 Krab and 1 PzH 2000
https://t.me/lost_armour/2164
https://t.me/lost_armour/2163
https://t.me/lost_armour/2162

More important is, that it was 36th documented Krab taken down.
Which makes it clear that there are even more of those destroyed.
That would make about 3/4 of all delivered to 404.
HSW can produce more or less 30 pcs a year.

Edit : and some more revealed numbers.
We are facing now more than 420k of exposed public obituaries.
And more than 100k MIA.
This brings a conclusion that the overall number of Ukrainian soldiers dead is in surroundings of 600k.
This war is different, so we have an issue with figuring out the usual KIA/WIA ratio.
A while ago, DPR authorities published its data providing 1:>4, but that was before a massive usage of drones targeting individual soldiers.
No matter how we argue the correlation, the overall number of Ukro KIA and WIA is around 2mln, may be even higher.
This is - surprise surprise - a number given by Cocainsky in his latest interview given to CNN when he was talking about "millions". Corrected himself after.
And another observation.
With Ukrainian side claimed number of civilians killed given at 21k, if considered true, this is the lowest civilian casualty ratio in any conflict we have data for.

Are those Russian Spetsnaz or some other special unit?

Propably SSO. Or from the GRU.

'We do not rule out the possibility of sending NATO soldiers to Ukraine' – Macron

He will need all soldiers at home pretty soon. 

wouls NATO be able to claim article five if Russia attacked decision making centers in these countries?

No.
Also Article 5 means nothing. Each country can decide how to react to an "attack" on one NATO state.
If Romania would be attacked, Spain could send a few bottles of wine as aid, for eample.

One thing is for certain, Russia has lost its chance to completely secure Ukraine now.

Sure. If that believe makes you sleep at night. 

Remember that Putin is actively encouraging other countries to get their prey.

Hungary and Romania sided with Hitler. Giving them back some land would be a betrayal of the people fighting in the GPW.

So did Slovakia, yet both with Hungary can do a good job for Russia, and Europe, interests in the near future.
Opening Danube will be really a gamechanger in political realities in the Balkans and part of Middle Europe.
Giving back some small pieces of land to ensure it is not a big deal.

And the Edyp's yapping sounds even more fun as they run with tail between the legs from half of Africa in the last few years.
Yeah, a mighty Frogg army will surely decimate Putin's orcs columns
Remind me the number of Leclercs? Still about 200?

ALAMO wrote:Giving back some small pieces of land to ensure it is not a big deal.

Yeah but while doing it with Hungary may be acceptable Slovakia has been recently quite antirussian.

Furthermore, many people in Mukachevo and similar are practically bilingual Hungarian and Russian. Are we sure that Hungary will protect the Russian language there?

Ukrops on the frontlines in the Kharkiv direction recently told SkyNews that for every artillery shell they fire, the Russians respond with 10 artillery shells...
This shows that the Ukrops are significantly outnumbered by the Russians.....

We know that Ukrops tend to downplay the Russian military strength....
So, it's safe to assume that the Russians have a minimum of 15-1 superiority in artillery...
And artillery is responsible for the maximum number of casualties throughout the conflict......
So now you get an idea of the ratio of casualties between Russians and Ukrainians.

Ukrainian numbers based on poor medical care and dismal casualty recovery is running around 1:2


That aspect is really important and seldom mentioned. The 'golden' hour.

This is probably the worst war since WW2 in terms of wounded soldiers subsequently dying or suffering more than they might with proper care. Whilst the Russian side, which this aspect we hear almost nothing about, could be one of the best.

MonitorX
@MonitorX99800
Russia: Strategic Missile Forces with Yars (RS-24) intercontinental (ICBM) nuclear missiles in central Moscow conducted currently maneuvers in central Moscow


There is the public and visible answer to the frog from France.

I don´t really follow or trust casualty accounts that much, for many reasons, but in my perfectly uninformed opinion, the order of magnitude of casualties for 404 needs to be close or even already in the seven digits. First, Russians are only accounting for what they can document, which is a rather unknown fraction of actual casualties. Second, ukros are literally dragging anyone in the streets and that means old people, women, crippled people and what have you, and still they don´t manage to man the frontlines anymore, so the impact of war in the demographics is already very significant. They have been feeding a literal 1000 mile meat grinder for two years already with outright disregard for human life, explained by the win-win situation this slaughter means for their anglo overlords and the total impunity they provide to the regime implementing it. When all is said and done and actual figures can be researched, the world is going to be shocked by the insane amount of ukrainians sacrificed by the West, probably to a point we are now not capable of even imagining.

Excellent news, more nations should do this ASAP, that traitor entitled filth needs to be purged

Sri Lanka ends visas for hundreds of thousands of Russians staying there to avoid war

https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/south-asia/sri-lanka-russia-tourist-visa-ukraine-war-b2502986.html?utm_source=reddit.com

What is the matter with Zelensky's voice lately? He looks really f'ed up.

Belizarius wrote:It's not been a good week for the Ukrainian artillery, in two days they lost 1 Archer, 1 Krab and 1 PzH 2000

They lost a lot more. What you have listed is only visually confirmed losses.

Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E wrote:@MonitorX99800
Russia: Strategic Missile Forces with Yars (RS-24) intercontinental (ICBM) nuclear missiles in central Moscow conducted currently maneuvers in central Moscow

Just stop making a crappy sensation every time. These are training sessions to prepare for the May 9th parade.
No forces of the Strategic Missile Forces will perform maneuvers even in the vicinity of Moscow - let alone in the city itself. Their working areas are thousands of kilometers away, combat service is conducted there, and we can only learn about real MANEUVERS from the communique of the press service of the Ministry of Defense, or from the fact of megaton explosions over western capitals.

Nowhere, no one, ever in the history of Russia has used trucks with ICBM rolling back and forth through the streets of Moscow as any signals for foreign policy purposes.

Ten years ago, on the night of February 27, 2014, Russian flags were hoisted over the Supreme Council and the Council of Ministers of Crimea by special forces of the Russian Armed Forces.

The special forces soldiers politely escorted all unnecessary people outside and set up barricades at the entrance to the buildings. At the same time, on the morning of February 27, checkpoints on Perekop and Chongar, connecting Crimea with the neighboring Kherson region, were taken under control.

A day later, the Black Sea Fleet blocked the bay of Sevastopol, after which reinforcements from mainland Russia, mainly consisting of marines, paratroopers and special forces, began to arrive in Crimea by sea and air. The arriving units, with the support of the pro-Russian local population, began methodically taking control of Ukrainian military units, police stations, administrative and industrial buildings, encountering virtually no resistance.

That's how it all started.

https://t.me/milinfolive/117262

Hungary can do a good job for Russia, and Europe, interests in the near future.

A Autonomous Republic of Hungarians inside the RF could do the same job. 

There is the public and visible answer to the frog from France.

A few plane loads of conventional cruise missiles would do the job.
No need to go nuclear to kick France in the butt.

hundreds of thousands of Russians staying there to avoid war

There is no mobilisation in Russia.
Numbers are propably way too high, too.
Look at the source. 

He looks really f'ed up.

Because he is.

That's how it all started.

Nope. Meddling by USA and EU started all of this.

Biden's team is preparing for Plan B for Ukraine, by Sergey Mirkin, journalist, Donetsk for VZGLYAD. 02.27.2024.

The Storch report is a very strong argument in favor of not giving money to Ukraine, since the supply of arms to Kyiv is a complete mess. If earlier these were simply suspicions of Republican politicians and journalists, now they are officially documented facts.

The Office of Pentagon Inspector General Robert Storch published a report from which it follows that American military officials, while supplying Ukraine with weapons, did not bother to repair these systems or train the Ukrainian military in handling spare parts for them. In addition, in the supply of 155-mm shells to Kyiv, as the report states, the interests of the US Army were sacrificed to the interests of Ukraine. Cargo declarations were filled out improperly. As a result of the audit, 50 criminal cases were initiated, so far without specific defendants.

From the report data, we can conclude that Pentagon strategists were not prepared for a protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine. And if we continue this logic, it turns out that American military officials bear a considerable share of responsibility for the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive and the loss of territories under the Kyiv regime’s control.

Why did a report appear with such unpleasant facts for the US military department? Did the Inspector General and his staff reflect the real picture without taking into account political conditions? I can't believe it. Robert Storch is a high-ranking official with extensive experience; he was previously the inspector general of the US National Security Agency (a structural unit of the Pentagon). Storch cannot help but understand the political and media implications of his report. The Ukrainian issue became a domestic political issue for the United States back in 2019, when impeachment proceedings were launched against then-President Donald Trump for allegedly blackmailing Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. Now, due to the conflict between the White House and Congress over the issue of financing Kyiv, the Ukrainian issue has reached a fundamentally new level. Especially on the eve of the US presidential elections. Perhaps the report should be a tool in a political combination. But which one? There are several versions.

American President Joe Biden admitted that Ukraine will continue to lose territory. True, he blamed the Republican congressmen for this, who do not want to give money to Ukraine. But the US has already allocated more than $100 billion to the Kyiv regime. The investment did not pay off. And rival Trump raises this topic all the time.

The American publication Politico claims that, according to the experts it interviewed, the main task of the West is to prevent the collapse of the Ukrainian army. Let’s imagine a situation: the Kiev regime is losing city after city, and the disintegration of the Ukrainian army has become so obvious that it cannot be hidden even from the American public. And all this on the eve of the presidential elections.

What should Biden's team do? Assign the culprits. Whom? For starters, the American military. Fortunately, there is a report from the inspector general. Some military officials will be fired, and as loudly as possible. Dozens of military personnel will be arrested in previously initiated criminal cases of procurement fraud, product substitution, theft, corruption, and diversion of weapons. After which Biden will be able to say that the military, who framed him, are to blame for everything. Their accomplices among the military leadership of Ukraine will also be identified and named.

Interestingly, Zelensky is also looking for those responsible, in particular for the failure of the counteroffensive. Thus, he stated that Russia had a plan for the Ukrainian counteroffensive even before it began. This means, according to the head of the Kyiv regime, someone passed on the information to Moscow. And this could have been done either by high-ranking Ukrainian military personnel or Western advisers. A version has appeared in the Ukrainian segment of the Network that Zelensky wants to declare either the ex-commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny or one of the officers close to him a traitor. In this way, the WE team will assign those responsible for the failure and get rid of their political rival. Perhaps this operation is carried out jointly by Washington and Kiev. In the USA they will appoint their own culprits, in Kyiv – their own. Some of them may be declared “agents of the Kremlin.” After which the Biden team will again try to put pressure on Congress in order to extract money for Ukraine. The White House will be motivated by the need to help Ukraine, and now that the enemies have been exposed, helping Kyiv will bring the desired effect. Whether this approach will work is unknown, but the Biden team still has few options.

But they exist. This option is possible: the White House realized that the Kiev regime would lose the war. 100 billion American taxpayer dollars wasted. And the Biden team is launching Plan B: in essence, the Kiev regime will repeat the fate of the Kabul regime, only this time the White House will try to prepare better. The American military and Ukrainian politicians and generals will be blamed. Their negligence, corruption, and incompetence will be declared the main reason for the fall of the Maidan in Ukraine. Zelensky and his eminence grise Andriy Yermak will be named as the main ones responsible for this. They will probably flee to the West, and criminal cases will be brought against them in the United States for stealing American aid. Although whoever the White House declares guilty, Trump and his supporters will appoint Biden and his people as the main person responsible for the situation.

Storch’s biography is interesting because he was nominated for the post of NSA inspector general for the first time by President Barack Obama, and for the second time by Donald Trump. This suggests that he has ties to both Democrats and Republicans. Perhaps Storch, as an experienced courtier, realized that Biden was a “lame duck” and that the bet should be placed on Trump. After all, Storch’s report is a very strong argument in favor of not giving money to Ukraine, since there is a complete mess going on with arms supplies to Kyiv. If earlier these were simply suspicions of Republican politicians and journalists, now they are officially documented facts.

It is possible that not all violations have been identified. In light of this, there may be more opponents of allocating money to Ukraine in American politics. Congressmen and senators will not want to risk their political careers by continuing to throw money into a black hole.

https://vz.ru/opinions/2024/2/27/1255308.html

Biden's bet to weaken was the criminal boycott against Russia and that had no effect, on the contrary, it made Russia even stronger and more independent and consolidated its ties with China.
They completely underestimated the Russian economy. I don't know who Russia's economist was who designed the plan to resist the boycott, but he is a genius.

PL is doing his job as always (and his Russian gets better, so he might not be a hopeless case! Good job Patrick! )



A shocking part is that every day 10-15 civilians arrive from Avdeevka, after months of fights.
What they have to say is another thing, but nothing will shock anyone who watched footage from Mariopol.

Mig31 wrote:There is the public and visible answer to the frog from France.

Don't be disheartened Mig31. Russia already showed nuclear deterrent to West by showing photo of Island in Arctic for new atmospheric tests . So these trucks could just be for the purposes of man - eu -vers ! We all know Frogs are good at making love not war !

My take on Shoigu report, context, an analysis compared to previous reports.

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2024/02/27/perdidas-de-ucrania-hasta-febrero-2024-444-000-bajas/


I am mildly surprised, I had thought about half a million casualties already by last summer, turns out I only overestimated by 10%

It doesn't make me happy to read about two hundred thousand dead Ukrainians, though perhaps half of them richly deserved it, so justice has been done.

What a waste of life, I can only wonder at the stupidity of the Khokhols not surrendering en masse as a way out