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    Russian Navy: Status and News #6

    Podlodka77
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    Post  Podlodka77 Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:27 am

    To Singular....


    You have a wrong calculation....
    First of all, I did not ignore that the "Ohio" class is outdated and in dire need of replacement, which also applies to the SLBM's on those submarines.
    The other thing; that tonnage you write about hits the wall when you get the information that since 2004, the USA has put into active service 22 (three more have been launched) submarines of the "Virginia" class.
    In 2001, Russia put into service the K-335 "Gepard" (971U) and in the last 9 years another 3 885/885M submarines.
    The fourth K-571 "Krasnoyarsk" should be delivered soon.
    So you have only four Yasen/Yasen-M's with K-571.
    To sum up; 4 Yasen/Yasen-M vs. 22 Virginia submarines.

    And while I believe the Yasen-M is great for any "collision" with the Virginia, between the Virginia submarines and the 949A Antey-A (Oscar) would end badly for the Russian submarine.
    The modernized 971 submarines on the other hand probably have a very good chance of going head-to-head with the Virginia.

    And as for the project 636.3 submarines, which I am by no means a fan of, because they are an old project dating back to the seventies when they were designed. The whole world has moved in the direction of AIP and if the whole world has done it then Russia is the one that is late. And those submarines will mostly be in the "ponds" called the Black Sea and the Baltic, where they would be easily found by P-8 planes and other combat forces of the West, so I don't give them much chance of survival.

    And most importantly, the production of the "Virginia" class is by no means going according to plan, but the number of operational new submarines is far greater than in Russia.
    In short; production of nuclear attack submarines in Russia must be increased.
    Hole
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    Post  Hole Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:52 am

    to see the desperate state of Russian attack nuclear submarines
    Because Strategic Deterrence was the priority in the past 20 years, which means carriers for Bulava, Kaliber, Zirkon and Poseidon.
    For defence of the littoral area (and tactical/operational strikes) the conventional subs were/are build.

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    Podlodka77
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    Post  Podlodka77 Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:58 am

    To Hole....


    The biggest problem of those Russian submarines is closed ponds like the Black Sea and the Baltic. You already have proof of that with the hit submarine that was being overhauled. I give the non-nuclear submarines in the Northern and Pacific fleets a much better chance of survival.
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    Post  Arrow Fri Nov 17, 2023 12:07 pm

    Podlodka77 wrote:To Hole....


    The biggest problem of those Russian submarines is closed ponds like the Black Sea and the Baltic. You already have proof of that with the hit submarine that was being overhauled. I give the non-nuclear submarines in the Northern and Pacific fleets a much better chance of survival.

    Podloodka77 In the case of small waters, detecting submarines is very difficult. Especially electric ones. Sounds propagate very poorly in shallow seas. In the open oceans, you can detect infrasound signals from hundreds of kilometers away, using a long towed sonar. Shallow seas are extremely difficult to detect submarines.

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    Podlodka77
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    Post  Podlodka77 Fri Nov 17, 2023 1:36 pm

    The problem is that you are limited by geography in the Black Sea and the Baltic.
    If Ukroshitstan managed to severely damage the B-237 "Rostov" then imagine what the NATO pact would do to those submarines with P-8 planes, submarines, etc.
    So you already got the answer to how vulnerable those submarines are in BF and BSF, especially when they are on the surface.
    Since those submarines do not have AIP, they cannot move underwater for a long time (or quickly).
    I repeat, when you know that you are in closed swamp than you know that you are easier target, while in the North you are not limited and you can "jump" from island to island or at least along the entire coast....

    I'm sorry people, but the 636.3 submarines as submarines are obsolete (70's design), while the weapons they carry are a different story.
    They are produced according to the principle "better a sparrow in the hand than a pigeon on a branch" because the Russians are late with the 677.
    If the Russians failed to radically improve the underwater range of the 677 submarines, then this project does not promise much either.
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    Post  Arrow Fri Nov 17, 2023 1:53 pm

    Rostov It was damaged in dry dock.

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    Podlodka77
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    Post  Podlodka77 Fri Nov 17, 2023 2:01 pm

    Arrow wrote:Rostov It was damaged in dry dock.

    I am writing to you again that the reason for this is geography.
    A small operational area (not the entire Black Sea in Russian hands) and the Black Sea is a closed sea.
    Whatever the Russians build for their fleet in those operational areas (BF and BSF) will again be very vulnerable.
    Russia should definitely give priority to the Northern and Pacific fleets, as was the case in the USSR.

    So back to nuclear attack submarines and frigates again... thumbsup

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    The-thing-next-door
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    Post  The-thing-next-door Fri Nov 17, 2023 6:55 pm

    Podlodka77 wrote:So back to nuclear attack submarines and frigates again...  thumbsup


    Has it ever occured to you that Russia might not build more frigates than it has on order because they are not very useful for anything but defending Russian coastlines?

    The Lider project is not dead, nor are the air defence systems for it ready. Hence one may infer that they do not plan on wasting money maintaining a large fleet of glorified coastal defence boats.

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    Post  Singular_trafo Sat Nov 18, 2023 12:47 am

    Podlodka77 wrote:And while I believe the Yasen-M is great for any "collision" with the Virginia, between the Virginia submarines and the 949A Antey-A (Oscar) would end badly for the Russian submarine.
    The modernized 971 submarines on the other hand probably have a very good chance of going head-to-head with the Virginia.


    Submarine onsubmarine fight is very rare, and by quick search it is the rarest form of any warfare.

    Most likelly it will be more rare in the future.

    Only case is when it could be considered if a submarine shadow an SSBN.

    For this purpose the USA needs more submarine than Russia, considering that the Ohios are beyond they design life, and most likelly noisy and rare to see them on sea.

    Other hand,USA has to handle Boreis.



    And generally, about timeline, one of the main suplier of the Russian navy used to be Ukraine.

    Means after the 2014 coup they had a good 5-8 years gap due to rebuilding part of the supply chain.

    But, it is over now, and the last few years capacity is now indicative of the organic capabilities on both side.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Sat Nov 18, 2023 2:14 am

    So by that logic Pod, all the Ukrainians have to do is throw a hand grenade at one of the aircraft monuments they have outside their air bases and all of Russias air power is useless too.

    For fucks sake, they got a lucky hit using dozens of missiles and drones and decoys on a sub in DRY DOCK.

    And you think that means Russian SSKs in the Black Sea are not safe?

    Are you an idiot?

    Do you understand that a moving sub that is underwater or even on the surface is vastly more difficult to track down and sink than one in dry dock... but lets pretend you are right... why haven't they sunk all the Russian Subs in the Black Sea?

    They are all SSKs so they will all be surfacing to recharge their batteries... so with HATO surveillance 24/7 why hasn't a single Russian sub been detected let alone sunk there?

    You are like a child having a tantrum... you like SSGNs and you think Russia should have more than anyone else because... why... so you can brag they have the most on the internet?

    Why are you so fixated on SSGNs?

    They are useless when you are not at war and in a war they can get sunk just like any other platform.

    Not trying to offend you but you are annoying with your little fixations.

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    Podlodka77
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    Post  Podlodka77 Sat Nov 18, 2023 8:31 am

    To Garry....

    Since you asked me "am I an idiot", I will also ask you if you are an idiot ?

    And as for the heavily damaged submarine "Rostov", you didn't understand me there either.
    I wrote that if that submarine was damaged by a cruise missile, in the event of any conventional conflict with NATO and due to the closure of the Black Sea, those 636.3 submarines would be an EASY TARGET. And I am convinced that it is so. The Black Sea is not an open ocean and only one part of that sea is in Russian hands.
    In a short time they would be found in the Black Sea and the Baltic.
    Of the 6 built 636.3 submarines for the BSF, two are outside the Black Sea; Novorossiysk and Krasnodar.
    So you already have one damaged submarine in a low-intensity conflict without the direct participation of the NATO pact.
    Not only are all submarines in the Baltic and Black Sea vulnerable, but all ships and submarines of the two fleets are vulnerable.

    And you, as the main administrator of this page, should know which two fleets are the most powerful in the VMF and what formed the backbone of their striking power.
    Do I need to write a MILLION times that Russia is down to only 6 active attack nuclear submarines?
    And what are you writing about, "about my fixation on SSGN submarines" ?

    The US has 31 active nuclear attack submarines out of 49 in service, while the French and UK have a total of 7 to 8 active submarines out of a total of 12.
    And what is your idea, to defend Russia with only 6 attack nuclear submarines of projects 885 and 971 in the vast expanse of the Arctic Ocean and the Pacific ?
    You are the FIRST to write that the Chinese do not have modern attack nuclear submarines, even though they have everything else, and here you write that I have a "fixation" on those submarines..
    With 6 submarines, even seven of them with B-448 "Tambov", Russia cannot even try to defend itself.

    And what then, should I listen to your fairy tales and those like you about how "Kinzhal" or "Zirkon", or even "Poseidon" will sink surface ships of the US Navy ? Maybe they will...
    There is one problem Garry, it will NOT sink the Virginia and the Seawolf class..  No
    That's the answer to your rant.
    And that's why everyone is writing about attack nuclear submarines.

    * Therefore, the money invested is insufficient and the Russian shipbuilding industry is corrupt,,or who knows what, and most importantly, it is inefficient.
    There are too many different projects under construction and there is too much delay in putting them into active service.
    * Modernization of ships and submarines such as "Leopard", "Samara", "Irkutsk", "Chelyabinsk", "Admiral Nakhimov", "Admiral Chabanenko" takes forever and it is not known when they will be put into service.
    * Since Putin came to power, Russia has introduced only THREE project 855/885M (We can hope for another one soon) submarines and one 971U in 2001 !
    * Only two project 22350 frigates are active and the third one is bombastically announced.

    The Russian Navy since Putin came to power, which is 23 years;
    * 6 SSBN of project 955/955A..
    * 4 built and delivered SSN/SSGN submarines (including K-335 Gepard in 2001),
    * 1 SMS; K-329 "Belgorod",
    * 2 project 22350 frigates,
    * 3 project 11356R guard ships,
    * one project 11540 guard ship,
    * 8 project 20380 corvettes,
    * 1 project 20385 corvette,
    * 10 project non-nuclear submarines 636.3.
    * 1 non-nuclear 677 submarine; INACTIVE.

    And what else should we write about ?

    I will not count the CANS of projects 21631 and 22800, as well as the slightly larger cans of project 22160, since even Navykorabel.ru does not count ships with a displacement of less than 2000 tons.

    And with what will you defend yourself, with non-nuclear submarines of the 636.3 project against the multi-billion submarines "Virginia" in NF and PF? Hey man, the American MIC is corrupt and they overpay for their military equipment, but in this case you have absolutely no chance.

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    Rodion_Romanovic
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Sat Nov 18, 2023 12:36 pm

    Just a small comment. Of course russian navy in the horrible 90s had more vessels. Not many years passed from the time of Soviet union.

    Due to the limited investment, current composition of russian navy is an acceptable compromise.

    Of course big mistakes have been done (also with naval contractors and management of shipyards), but again losing half of the supply chain, some of the bigger shipyards and the main naval engine manufacturer had a small implication on the matter...

    Furthermore, and everyone here knows it, apart from the SSBNs, which are part of the nuclear triads, the navy has been always the last branch of the military in the funding priority.

    Again, after the SMO this will partially change as well, also due to the fact that large investments have been already done on other branches.

    As far as the Kilo class submarines, actually the improved kilo class 636 Varshavyanka, which had many changes from the original 877 project, it was further improved in a new subclass in the mid 2010s.

    It has no AIP, but I believe it got better batteries that offer a longer autonomy. for shallow and /or coastal waters it is an ideal submarine, way better than a SSN.

    Its successor (project 677 Lada class) had many shortcomings in the initial design, which possibly have been now solved (apart from the AIP). We will see once the first 2 serial ships (Kronstadt and Velikie Luki) will enter in service.

    Anyway project 636 class submarines (improved Kilo) could be produced in large series and at good pace. Even if it was not the most outstanding example of latest class technology it was enough, and they are doing their role pretty well. If they would have only concentrated on the latest projects, especially after all the time of disarrey post soviet union fall, Russia will have very few remaining Diesel submarines.

    As far as other ships, there were no modern and sensible projects for destroyers until a few years ago. Add the fact that there was not really enough money and the only shipyards capable of building such class of ships were already busy (Admiralty, Baltic and servernaya verf in Sankt Petersburg, + Yantar in Kaliningrad).

    Baltic has been helped a lot in a time of little money by the first order for the taiwar class frigates for India, and then used mainly for the large nuclear icebreakers.
    Yantar, with all of its problems, has been saved by the second taiwar order, which allowed them to slowly rebuilt capabilities. Admiralty has been pretty busy with diesel electric subs and severnaya verf has been used to develop the new generation of large corvettes (20380) and later of frigates (22350).

    The only ocean class ship that they could have produced (at least until zorya mashproekt was producing the engines for Russia) could have been maybe a lightly modernised udaloy class with UKSK launchers, but that would have meant producing less frigates and corvettes.

    Some people said the opposite, which is that Russia should have started earlier to produce 11356r (grigorovich class) frigates, but that become only a stop gap measure due to the delay on the development of the modern systems for the 22350 class. Starting production of 11356R earlier (apart from the taiwar Frigates for India) would have meant giving up with the next generation naval system development.

    Finally another group of critics say that Russia should have bought ships from China, which is producing them like shortcakes.

    Type 054A frigates are not bad, but they are absolutely not better than the 11356 (taiwar/grigorovich class).

    Type 052D destroyers are also decent ships, but they started producing them only in the 2010s (earlier destroyers were not good enough).

    Getting ships from China would have meant having even less money for the russian shipbuilding industry (which would have been a similar problem to that of the civilian aircraft industry).  Furthermore the Chinese would not give the ships for free. If there was no money for building ships in Russia, buying foreign ships would not have  been a real solution (it could have been a temporary stop gap, which have also compromised the future development).

    Finally, I really like the small missile ships and the patrol ships. Due to the russian geography, it is also great that they can be also transferred via inland waterways across the various fleets, rivers and inner seas.

    What is still missing is a small antisub corvette like the old project 1124 grisha class (which could be probably by made based on either the small missile corvette 22800 (karakurt) or on the 22160 patrol ship.
    The 20380 large corvettes are quite good in  antisub warfare, but they are also much larger and much more expensive in comparison to the grisha class.

    Furthermore, even if they are just workhorses and many navy fans are not interested in them, I believe that Russian navy will need more ships for logistics, like the old alligator and Ropucha class landing ships. The new 11711M will be great and I hope they build several of them, but again they are much larger and expensive.
    What they need now it is something not too large and simple like the old alligator class: up to 1000 tons of load, naval guns and short range anti air defense (and maybe some tornado rocket launchers).

    No need for helicopters (except for a landing pad) or other systems.

    Russia need first to cover all the basis.
    Not to do like the British navy that built two superexpensive and useless large carriers when they do not have even ships to escort them, and, while being extremely large, they can only carry vtol planes.

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    lancelot
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    Post  lancelot Sat Nov 18, 2023 3:46 pm

    The slow poke and accident prone shipbuilding at Severnaya Verf is infuriating.

    What I would like to know is what is the delay with getting the Admiral Isakov. We already have the Admiral Golovko in trials. It was launched three years ago. They started building the Admiral Isakov only one year afterwards (they started building it in 2013). But it still hasn't been launched into the water and seems to be lying stagnant outside the construction building. The engines are certainly not the problem since UEC Saturn delivered them on the year after they did for the Admiral Golovko. This was like two years ago.

    Then you have the lawsuit of the government against the shipyard because of the Admiral Golovko being delayed in delivery. Which probably also means payments are delayed. Which means ships don't get built.
    Russian Navy: Status and News #6 - Page 20 Image16

    The Admiral Isakov is just sitting there. I even looked at the satellite pictures from like last month and nothing changed.

    Oh, and need I remind you that Severnaya Verf is supposedly also rebuilding the Project 20385 corvette 'Provornyy' after the topside burnt down to the ground in 2021? They are supposed to basically rebuild the top of this ship on their own dime. To fix the goof up they made.

    Are they only able to work on finishing one ship at a time or what? There is no justification for the Admiral Isakov not having hit the water already.

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    Podlodka77
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    Post  Podlodka77 Sat Nov 18, 2023 4:15 pm

    To Rodion...

    I agree completely with everything you wrote up to the Kilo class while from there I have my own opinion.

    These rascals from shipbuilders, subcontractors and project bureaus only milked the state and extracted money, and in return Russia did not receive a fleet except empty promises.

    * The 636.3 submarines are a forced solution because the Russians had to replace the existing 877 submarines with something. I respect everything you wrote, but this design is old. And as for the 677 submarine, we will see how that saga will develop.

    * Small missile ships of project 21631 were built first, and then the Russians decided to replace project 11356R (ceasing delivery of gas turbines from UA) with SMS project 22800 because this project is more seaworthy.
    I really don't like the idea of ​​building these ships because they only have a short range air defense system while the anti-submarine component is absent.
    I would prefer that the Russians built ships of this size in an anti-submarine configuration.

    * Project 11356R has an advantage in the strike component due to the installed UKSK, while the Chinese frigate has a third more air defense missiles. The Chinese frigate has the advantage of two more torpedoes because it uses 2 three-barreled torpedo tubes compared to the Russian one with two double-barreled ones.
    * The Type-052D is better than any Russian project under construction. Russia does not need a ship the size of the Type-055, in my opinion.

    * The project 20380 corvette also underwent a major change in the form of the installation of the UKSK on the 20385, as well as 16 instead of 12 cells for the 9K96. The first 6 ships have "Furke" radar and after that comes "Zaslon".
    * The project 22350; I don't see progress here.. I think it is impossible that the Russians completed all the tests on the gas turbines on the frigate "Golovko" in such a short time. I think that it is very likely that "Isakov" was not launched for this reason either.

    * As far as I can see, the Russians are still the most capable in building quality nuclear submarines. I have written enough about these submarines; the debacle in the modernization of the 971 and 949A projects, the slow construction of new submarines.

    You have your opinion and I respect it.
    I really do.
    However, the country, which now has a population of 150 million, has proven completely incapable of building a fleet. They are useless..
    Russia does NOT NEED large landing ships. Where will this poor Russian VMF use project 11711?
    There are too many projects under construction and huge changes are constantly being made, such as the transition from 21631 to 22800, then drastic changes on corvettes, and the announced increase in the armament of frigates.
    Along with all that, 22160 and 23350 are also being built.


    My friend, in Russia there are small SMS ships of project 22800 that have not yet been put into active service and which have been lying in shipyards for years.
    And what kind of improvement and progress of the VMF should we write about?
    I would without a second thought order from China at least 12 Type-052D destroyers for NF and PF and thus end the story. Let the Russians continue to build project 20385 and that's about it.


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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Sat Nov 18, 2023 5:53 pm

    Podlodka77 wrote:
    These rascals from shipbuilders, subcontractors and project bureaus only milked the state and extracted money, and in return Russia did not receive a fleet except empty promises.

    If I am not mistaken, in the case of some of the USC shipyards, even if they should be state owned, have also private people exploiting them (but of course not investing in them. I believe that is also the case for severnaya verf and possibly that is one of the causes for the problems, in addition to a really horrible planning and supplier management.

    I am absolutely not against private owned industries especially if founded and /or owned by someone that value them and want also to build good products, but I hate the case of industries stolen from the state because of corrupt politicians, especially when the new owners (or part owners) do not have any dedicated sector knowledge and are only interested in squeezing them dry without investing or contributing in any way.

    So probably there is also the need for Russia to do a proper check of all industries and firms involved in shipbuilding (including also companies that will be responsible for building or expanding shipyards), properly audit and rate them, and if possible try to help them identify way to correct their weaknesses.

    If not, then either expropriate them, close them or ban from the business.

    If it is something of strategic importance for the state they are allowed to continue being privately owned only if they do a good job.

    But the same thing also for the state owned ones: if the managements is involved in embezzlement or stealing money or actively damaging them fro various reasons (including incompetence), those people should be first deprived of all personal money and assets (including those "donated" to friends and family) and then sent either to jail and hard physical labour which is beneficial for the community in general or as cannon fodder during next military operation.

    Podlodka77 wrote:
    I would without a second thought order from China at least 12 Type-052D destroyers for NF and PF and thus end the story. Let the Russians continue to build project 20385 and that's about it.
    We need to see how 22350M will end up being.
    I believe that will have a similar size to Udaloy class and better capability than type 052D.

    Even if China wanted to sell O52D, they would cost something like half a billion USD each.
    12 of them would mean around 6 billions.

    All money not invested in the russian shipbuilding industry, from shipyards, to engine makers to all subcontractors.

    That is absolutely not acceptable.

    With 6 billions they can properly fix a lot of things, as long as the money is properly used and does not ends up in someone's pockets

    What Russia need is to ensure first that the entirety of the naval supply chain works as needed.

    They need to properly identify the things that went wrong until now (even if some of the problems were due to many secundary parts previously sourced abroad, and being then unavailable during to sanctions, causing enormous delays and interruption of productions), and where direct investment or even new firms and industries need to be established (and this could go from subsidies to firms that are established in those sectors, or even to create new state owned companies).

    I believe some of it has already been done, but I still see a lot of mistakes being repeated.

    Anyway, Russia needs to (after having ensured that a proper supply chain exists fully) have the first 22350M being made and tested and then to build them at at least 2 different shipyards at the same time.

    Possibly Russia needs also to establish a new common framework for formation and training of shipbuilding personnel as well.
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    Post  lancelot Sat Nov 18, 2023 7:04 pm

    Rodion_Romanovic wrote:If I am not mistaken, in the case of some of the USC shipyards, even if they should be state owned, have also private people exploiting them (but of course not investing in them. I believe that is also the case for severnaya verf and possibly that is one of the causes for the problems, in addition to a really horrible planning and supplier management.
    We had a report here some months ago where the pier right next to Severnaya Verf was owned by a bunch of private individuals. Including people who lived in the US... The Russian government only recently expropriated it. So they used to have to pay these individuals to rent it.

    A lot of companies in the Russian MIC are partially owned by private interests. But their control keeps decreasing.
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    Post  GarryB Sun Nov 19, 2023 4:40 am

    And as for the heavily damaged submarine "Rostov", you didn't understand me there either.
    I wrote that if that submarine was damaged by a cruise missile, in the event of any conventional conflict with NATO and due to the closure of the Black Sea, those 636.3 submarines would be an EASY TARGET. And I am convinced that it is so. The Black Sea is not an open ocean and only one part of that sea is in Russian hands.

    You confirm you are an idiot. Firstly hitting a submarine sitting in dry dock with a cruise missile means nothing in a conventional conflict with HATO, because any vessel in dry dock will be of zero use in that conflict.

    Secondly you can hit a submarine in a dry dock because it is visible on satellites and it can't be moved so that cruise missile didn't hit a submarine... it impacted a coordinate like a building or bridge. Submarines at sea are not buildings or bridges for which you can collect its coodinates and then pass those on to operational units to punch into their targeting computers and then launch an aircraft to release an air launched cruise missile that flys to those coordinates, because before that operational unit even got those coordinates even a surfaced SSK moves while it is snorkeling and when it is snorkeling it only has the snorkel above water so a cruise missile wont even hit it, but it also wont hit it because it will already be several kilometres away from the coordinates the satellite or targeting source collected a few hours earlier.

    Even coordinates 5 minutes old would be too late to hit the sub.

    Russian SSKs in the Black Sea have been completely safe... if HATO could find them and hit them then Kiev would be trying over and over to do that and they have no idea where they might be.

    In a short time they would be found in the Black Sea and the Baltic.

    Found by HATO ships that would be sunk by Russian long range anti ship missiles that cover the length and width of the Black Sea?

    Or found by HATO aircraft that would be shot down fairly quickly too?

    So you already have one damaged submarine in a low-intensity conflict without the direct participation of the NATO pact.

    They shot a beached whale, no need to get your panties in a knot.

    Not only are all submarines in the Baltic and Black Sea vulnerable, but all ships and submarines of the two fleets are vulnerable.

    Any war with HATO will be nuclear within minutes... whether subs or ships in the Black Sea are sunk is meaningless... all HATO ships and subs in the Black sea will be destroyed very quickly too... in fact probably much faster than Russian ships and subs would be.

    Turkey would probably not get involved so their ships and subs would probably be ignored.

    And you, as the main administrator of this page, should know which two fleets are the most powerful in the VMF and what formed the backbone of their striking power.

    The future of teh Russian Navy is to support Russian access to the rest of the world, which means the Northern Fleet and the Pacific Fleet are going to be the real focus with the Caspian sea flotilla becoming a transport hub through Iran, but the Black Sea fleet will only be insuring the safety of South Stream to Turkey, and shipping material to Syria and maintaining relations with Egypt and north Africa, there is not a lot of value in having a large force there. When Europe collapses there will likely be a lot of Piracy there. The Baltic fleet can be tiny and focus on ensuring access to Kaliningrad.

    Do I need to write a MILLION times that Russia is down to only 6 active attack nuclear submarines?

    Plenty... they are only of use at war...

    And what are you writing about, "about my fixation on SSGN submarines" ?

    Your fixation with sub counting is a bit sad.

    And what is your idea, to defend Russia with only 6 attack nuclear submarines of projects 885 and 971 in the vast expanse of the Arctic Ocean and the Pacific ?

    Refer to the first lines of this post, do you think Russian SSNs are the only things stopping a HATO invasion of Russia?

    They are tapped out after a year of supplying Ukraine and you still think they are a threat?

    Russia has sea bed sonar arrays and SSKs and corvettes and aircraft and of course MiG-31Ks to deal with any surface ships.

    Not to mention a nuke in your capital city if you do try anything stupid.

    Even if they get close enough most of their cruise missiles are pathetic and would likely be shot down.

    You are the FIRST to write that the Chinese do not have modern attack nuclear submarines, even though they have everything else, and here you write that I have a "fixation" on those submarines..

    I rather doubt that because I have no idea what submarines the Chinese have.

    Articles written in Chinese newspapers during joint Russian Chinese naval exercises noted the Russian sailors were impressed with the nice new modern Chinese ships, but that the Chinese were interested in Russian submarine technology and anti sub technology...

    With 6 submarines, even seven of them with B-448 "Tambov", Russia cannot even try to defend itself.

    HAHAHAHA... yeah... Russia is wide open to attack... who is first?

    And what then, should I listen to your fairy tales and those like you about how "Kinzhal" or "Zirkon", or even "Poseidon" will sink surface ships of the US Navy ? Maybe they will...
    There is one problem Garry, it will NOT sink the Virginia and the Seawolf class..

    And again it comes back to the first point... if you were actually reading what I have been saying that Poseidon is a doomsday weapon and any anti carrier potential was all speculation. I did point out that the only way a Poseidon could have an anti sub function would be as a cluster nuclear bomb munition carrier with hundreds or thousand of nuclear bombs that it would sow on the sea floor and detonate in likely launch areas for US subs, but even then it is an enormous waste of resources that might not hit a single sub so hardly worth it. Just the same as a rail based nuke... you could try landing a nuke every 300m along a train track but that would use up enormous numbers of nuclear warheads that would be better used trashing western cities instead.

    And that's why everyone is writing about attack nuclear submarines.

    You are writing about SSNs and everyone is responding is talking about them too, but Russia needs a surface fleet more than it needs a sub fleet.

    A sub fleet is useless in peace time and does nothing to promote trade and military relations with other countries.


    * Therefore, the money invested is insufficient and the Russian shipbuilding industry is corrupt,,or who knows what, and most importantly, it is inefficient.

    The ship building industry is working hard trying to keep up with orders, for every military ship like a sub or corvette they are also making lots of patrol boats and support ships and other ships that are needed too, and for every military boat they put out there are also orders for civilian ships that they are struggling to keep up with.

    Wasn't there a number posted recently that 300 civilian ships are being built with 1200 on order waiting for shipyard space... even India is being contracted to make civilian ships to deal with the need.

    More ships means more income and more trade which means more money for the navy to protect and support that trade... it is all good.

    And what else should we write about ?

    And if they had 100 SSNs and 100 SSBNs and 1,000 corvettes... they would have lost the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria already because they pissed all their money and resources away on their bloody useless navy.


    And with what will you defend yourself, with non-nuclear submarines of the 636.3 project against the multi-billion submarines "Virginia" in NF and PF? Hey man, the American MIC is corrupt and they overpay for their military equipment, but in this case you have absolutely no chance.

    If the Russians had no chance HATO would have invaded them years ago... a torpedo from a 636 will sink any western sub or ship, the value of the target means nothing at all.


    Anyway project 636 class submarines (improved Kilo) could be produced in large series and at good pace. Even if it was not the most outstanding example of latest class technology it was enough, and they are doing their role pretty well. If they would have only concentrated on the latest projects, especially after all the time of disarrey post soviet union fall, Russia will have very few remaining Diesel submarines.

    I suspect they wont even bother with AIP and might go to all electric drive submarines and use nuclear powered charging stations in port and in various locations in their own waters where they can charge up without the noise of a diesel engine or having to surface.


    What is still missing is a small antisub corvette like the old project 1124 grisha class (which could be probably by made based on either the small missile corvette 22800 (karakurt) or on the 22160 patrol ship.

    I would suspect the bow sonar could be replaced by an underwater drone and towed arrays, but the UKSK launcher can fire the Otvet anti sub ballistic rocket delivered torpedo and of course a helicopter with a dipping sonar would also be an effective way of tracking down subs... even visually in shallow waters.

    The point is that the corvettes are multirole but wont operate on their own... they will operate in groups of other corvettes with perhaps a frigate too for more difficult tasks

    I am absolutely not against private owned industries especially if founded

    Well you should be because most of the time they seem to turn out to be the problem... selfish greedy cnts.

    A lot of companies in the Russian MIC are partially owned by private interests. But their control keeps decreasing.

    Lots of tribunals have opened cases of ownership changes during the 1990s where the owner is illegal and part of a problem in making issues for the organisation... port owners chemical plants etc etc etc.

    Now they can't get money out of the country via SWIFT they are getting exposed and investigated and it is an excellent and timely cleanout of criminals from both the west and inside Russia itself. There was one case of a man who owned a port that was making 20 million US dollars a year that went to his nieces who lived in the US on this money, with no funds invested back into the port to increase productivity or potential.

    Changes are happening.

    The west thinks it is punishing Putin and Russia but they are actually destroying all the strings and money leaks that kept Russia back.

    Putin has not built up the Russian Navy to be amazing, but there was no need to in the past because most Russian trade went through western ports on western ships insured by western insurance companies. Now Russia needs civilian ships to reach the world and their shipyards are struggling to make them... they can't trust western shipyards like those in France for instance, but they can have ships built in India and China and things built in Turkey even, but military ships should be made in Russia.

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    Podlodka77
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    Post  Podlodka77 Sun Nov 19, 2023 4:33 pm

    To Garry....

    I think you're an idiot too, who only does his own thing and twists what is written, but there is no need for me to tell you that all the time.
    When I wrote in the message that "everyone is writing about SSN/SSGN" submarines, I meant military experts in the world, not you.

    What are you writing about, I ask you again ?  No
    The Russian fleet is no longer in Crimea; airplanes at the airport "Saki" were crushed, an old cruiser was sunked, an old landing ship was destroyed, a new corvette that was yet to be put into service was also badly damaged, and the submarine "Rostov" was damaged (let's hope only that).
    And all that without NATO aviation except for giving information..
    And all that without NATO ships and submarines.
    And you write that the Russians could easily destroy a NATO ship with their anti-ship missiles ?
    It is very possible that there is one problem, and that is in the fact that the Black Sea Fleet is in "prison" now, and the Russians have withdrawn it to Novorossiysk.
    And in what was I wrong when I wrote that the biggest enemy of the BF and the Black Sea Fleet is precisely the geography and closedness of those fleets?

    And you write about nuclear weapons ?  No
    If Russia did not have nuclear weapons, it would have been crushed by now. And that story about how good Kinzhal, Iskander, S-400 is is true, but none of those systems helped the Russians to finish the SMO, at least not yet.
    Yes, that's right, because without those nuclear weapons the West would certainly not fear about 400 active Su-30/35, as well as MiG-31, a devastated and decimated Russian navy whose only strength is in SSBN submarines. Suspect

    To sum up;
    If you think that the Russians can defend themselves against the West with a huge amount of F-35, Eurofighter, F-15, I don't think so...
    If you think that the NF and PF with a practically non-existent surface fleet of ships and a miserable small amount of attack nuclear submarines can defend themselves from NATO, I don't think so.
    We agree on one or twoo things;
    * the aircraft carriers would have been destroyed and a good part of the surface fleet of the West even without a nuclear war, but it was the Western fighter aircraft that would have "passed" and done the job.
    * And while the Russians in a conventional conflict would destroy a good part of the equipment at the western airports, on the other hand, Moscow and SP would be burning. Therefore, the only safe option is nuclear weapons.
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Sun Nov 19, 2023 5:10 pm


    Well there is a big difference between a ship sailing underway with full crew and all system operatives and one ship docked at the harbour. Or even more if said ship is in the shipbuilding yard for fitting out or construction.

    It is like saying that I can beat Mike Tyson on the ring just because I am able to kill him if he is sedated, sleeping and strapped to a bed.

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    Podlodka77
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    Post  Podlodka77 Sun Nov 19, 2023 5:31 pm

    Rodion_Romanovic wrote:
    Well there is a big difference between a ship sailing underway with full crew and all system operatives and one ship docked at the harbour. Or even more if said ship is in the shipbuilding yard for fitting out or construction.

    It is like saying that I can beat Mike Tyson on the ring just because I am able to kill him if he is sedated, sleeping and strapped to a bed.



    There is no justification for that and the losses of the BSF are considerable.
    After all, NATO ships, submarines and planes did not attack the Russian fleet.
    That's what the Nazis from UA do for them.
    The Russians have already received a huge slap in the face for having to withdraw the fleet to Novorossiysk.
    With that, it turned out that the importance of Crimea for the BSF has no significance.

    Rodion, is the destroyed plane in the air or on the airport stand the same thing, for example ?
    I think so, since with the destruction of that plane that unit was lost.

    And as for the 636.3 submarines, I wrote that it is an outdated design from the 70s, and that is my opinion.
    All the non-nuclear submarines under construction in the world are of much newer design, propulsion and technology.
    But "better a sparrow in the hand than a pigeon on a branch" and the Russians had to replace the 877 submarines with something.
    The fact that the Russians in their media like to fart that in the West they call the Kilo class "black holes" is true, but that's what they called them more than 30 years ago.

    And the Chinese are withdrawing those "black holes" from active service...
    Китай, пр.877 - класса "Кило" списан в рамках подготовки к публичному показу в г. Чжанцзян.
    China, Project 877 - Kilo class, decommissioned in preparation for public display in Zhangjiang.

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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Sun Nov 19, 2023 5:45 pm

    The problem is that Russia at the moment for several reasons cannot attack the places were those missiles are produced.

    In a real war against Britain, as an example, you would see the industries producing those missiles being targeted, together with the British air force base and naval bases, plus shipyards.

    Russia for obvious reason does not want to escalate the conflict that way.

    Ukraine has no navy anymore, so does not really have many naval targets to be hit.

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    Post  Podlodka77 Sun Nov 19, 2023 5:54 pm

    Rodion_Romanovic wrote:The problem is that Russia at the moment for several reasons cannot attack the places were those missiles are produced.

    In a real war against Britain, as an example, you would see the industries producing those missiles being targeted, together with the British air force base and naval bases, plus shipyards.

    Russia for obvious reason does not want to escalate the conflict that way.

    Ukraine has no navy anymore, so does not really have many naval targets to be hit.

    I agree with you and that is not in doubt, but the fact is that BSF is not particularly useful for the Russian AF.
    Yes, these submarines and surface warships can launch cruise missiles from Novorossiysk, and the vermin in Ukroshitstan will know that practically immediately.
    The way of warfare has been changed forever, and therefore I think that Russia should give ABSOLUTE priority to the ocean fleets, that is NF and PF.

    This conflict showed that closed seas are very dangerous for the navies located in them.
    I would not keep ships in the BSF with a larger displacement than project 20385 corvettes and project 677 submarines.
    Russia in this area must defend itself on land, that is the priority, but with air support.
    I think that Russia is doing that, and a hint of that is the transfer of the BSF to Novorossiysk.
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Sun Nov 19, 2023 6:48 pm

    Podlodka77 wrote:
    I agree with you and that is not in doubt, but the fact is that BSF is not particularly useful for the Russian AF.
    Yes, these submarines and surface warships can launch cruise missiles from Novorossiysk, and the vermin in Ukroshitstan will know that practically immediately.
    The way of warfare has been changed forever, and therefore I think that Russia should give ABSOLUTE priority to the ocean fleets, that is NF and PF.

    This conflict showed that closed seas are very dangerous for the navies located in them.
    I would not keep ships in the BSF with a larger displacement than project 20385 corvettes and project 677 submarines.
    Russia in this area must defend itself on land, that is the priority, but with air support.
    I think that Russia is doing that, and a hint of that is the transfer of the BSF to Novorossiysk.

    20385 ships are good, but they do not have the range and autonomy of larger ships.


    From the black sea Russia can easily operate in the Mediterranean and in other southern sea.

    The transfer of the navy ships to novorossisk is only a temporary measure. War times are not the same as peace times.

    After Ukraine has no coastal area anymore Crimea will be safer.

    After the the end of the SMO Sevastopol will be again the headquarter of the black sea fleet, with novorossisk as secondary base (and main diesel sub base of operation) and possibly another secondary base or logistic center could be opened again in Odessa.

    It would be nice as well to see some large russian navy ship docking in Odessa again.

    Furthermore Murmansk and Severomorsk (hq of the northern fleet) are quite close to both Norway and Finland. Should Russia close those bases as well then?
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    Post  Podlodka77 Sun Nov 19, 2023 8:00 pm

    To Rodion...

    Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think Russia will be happy with that population. I see Ukroshitsanians as apostates. A nation that is ready to turn against a neighboring nation with which it shares the same genetic code and deserves nothing less than contempt.
    I have written before that I do not see any indication that the Russians want Odessa or Kharkov.
    Rodion, for more than 105 years those cities have not been part of the Russian state. The population in UA is poor, mixed and a good part of the population in those cities is anti-Russian.
    Territory means nothing if you have a state anti-element on it.
    I will again express my opinion that in the event that Russia captures Kharkov, Odessa, Nikolaev and even Zaporozhye, a good part of the population would leave those cities.
    Nobody needs a half-empty city, and Russia does not have a very positive birth rate to compensate for the loss of population.

    Whatever Russia produces and places in the BF or BSF, the very fact that these are closed seas will have a negative effect on those vessels. I wouldn't invest much in BF and BSF at all. The geographical position in those two theaters is unfavorable and it is better to invest money in the ground army, aviation, RVSN, PF and NF. Yes, Russia should leave 6 or more submarines each in BF and BSF, build 6 or more corvettes for both fleets and build anti-submarine aircraft. And that's it, nothing more.

    Whether the future of air warfare is unmanned or manned, Russia needs to continue to modernize its VVS and especially ground forces.
    As for the fleet, most analysts say that submarines have a greater chance of survival compared to surface warships, but there should be a question mark, since it is not impossible that they are also very vulnerable.
    Russia should prioritize NF and PF.
    Military-industrial complexes and above all military planners around the world are already aware that the way of warfare has changed a lot.


    In Crimea, you also have the S-400, Buk, Tor, Pantsir, which, although proven imperfect, are still the most modern echeloned air umbrella in the world - and by far the best.
    And again the SS passed through and hit Russian ships and submarines.
    And what is the result of all that ?
    Withdrawal of ships to Novorossiysk even though Crimea is perhaps the area in the world with the highest concentration of air defense.
    And many Russian ships like project 11356R have their own anti-aircraft defense, but the Russians don't want to risk it and they transferred the ships to Novorossiysk.
    Current surface warships in the world, even if they have the most powerful air defense system, it might destroy 8 out of 10 missiles but two will get through and do the job.

    This luxury can be afforded to some extent by the Chinese with three large fleets, which are next to each other, and with a fairly large number of fighter aircraft. However, the current PLA Navy is certainly vulnerable once 1000+ km away from the Chinese mainland.
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    Post  Singular_trafo Sun Nov 19, 2023 10:13 pm

    Podlodka77 wrote:
    To sum up;
    If you think that the Russians can defend themselves against the West with a huge amount of F-35, Eurofighter, F-15, I don't think so...
    If you think that the NF and PF with a practically non-existent surface fleet of ships and a miserable small amount of attack nuclear submarines can defend themselves from NATO, I don't think so.
    We agree on one or twoo things;
    * the aircraft carriers would have been destroyed and a good part of the surface fleet of the West even without a nuclear war, but it was the Western fighter aircraft that would have "passed" and done the job.
    * And while the Russians in a conventional conflict would destroy a good part of the equipment at the western airports, on the other hand, Moscow and SP would be burning. Therefore, the only safe option is nuclear weapons.

    This analysises made by the same organisation that envisioned the Ukrainan vitrory in few month time, and Ukrainan boots on Crimea by August.

    Means the design characteristic, capability, power ratio and so on of the airplanes most likelly as realistic, as the expectation about the Leopard supariority above the Soviet tanks.


    Example, all airplane based on the next assumptions:
    1. the aircraft worth as much as 50-100 missile with the same range.
    2. an aircraft can carry as much ordnancelike 3-6 missile.
    3. the aircraft can carry ordnance that is several magnitude cheaper than the missiles.

    Now, I know that teh NATO planners hate the math and objectivity, but if based on this we can say the F-35 doesn't make sense if it can delvier only 20 load of bombs to the target.

    Means, if the air defence system can destroy 5% of the incoming planes per sortie , then the whole USA and NATO aircraft fetish doesn't make sense. Way cheaper to use missiles from that money.


    Of course it needs math, and doesn't make possible the ongoing bribery between the USA/NATO military and lockhed/boeing/airbus, but there are certain priorities.

    And no, JDAM-ER and similar doesn't help, as we can see in Ukraine that can do magic only around the frontline.

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