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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #23

    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Sun Sep 11, 2022 4:41 pm

    JohninMK wrote:

    https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2022/09/09/u-s-ups-the-ante-are-we-indeed-headed-into-wwiii-and-what-can-save-us/

    In essence what I have already said since February 24...

    The strikes on "dual use infrastructure" as well as Kiev, and not only Kiev, means VKS will use the Syrian conflict experience to level all of Ukraine

    On the other hand, mobilization is still not a necessity

    You can deal damage to VSU with airstrikes as in Syria

    You have to annihilate Ukrainian infrastructure, and employ FAB 250, 500, 1500, and other such bombs for the task at a large scale

    If you recall, the VKS identified oil trucks and other equipment moving across the border near Turkey

    In the same scenario, the VKS must fly to the border with Poland from Belarus and simply annihilate whatever comes across the border

    It also means refugees from Ukraine will number the Syrian war

    And why shouldn't it? In Syria people fled the war in boats to reach Europe

    Here, it is the same, if Europe and the US are parties to the conflict, then allow them to absorb the consequences of massive destruction of Ukrainian "dual use infrastructure " in fact by supplying weapons, they de facto have declared that they will house the 10 million (or more) additional Ukrainians that will flee Ukraine once the VKS begins its strategic bombing campaign

    It can begin in the east, using Dnieper as a border, destroying all urban agglomeration east of the Dnieper, starting with Kiev , (itself an analogue to Damascus) , begin with destroying Kiev with precision strikes, use Kalibr on all infrastructure where they are housing weapons , even it is civilian infrastructure, and reattempt the assault on Kiev from Belarus

    Once Kiev falls, do the same to Sumy and Chernigov, bomb the cities and let the army enter from Russia, secure some corridors, and allow civilians to exit the cities, as you intensify the strikes

    Proceed to consolidate the gains to Kharkov, and Dnipropetrovsk

    All the cities should look like Syria, with buildings destroyed to prevent them from hiding

    Then go in and clean the city entirely block by block

    Voila- you have captured the left bank of Ukraine, without mobilization, or employment of nuclear weapons

    Civilian casualties : maybe 50,000 to 150,000, with margin for error

    It is acceptable

    Now let the western parts of Ukraine decide if it will be their fate

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    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Sun Sep 11, 2022 4:43 pm

    Erk wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    Azi wrote:New map of Russian MoD shows everything west of the Oskol river abandoned.

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #23 - Page 39 Img_2012

    Okay enough of shitstorm...I have no power and mood to critize anymore! Russian MoD and the Kremlin must get the head out of their ass to win this war. They should adapt quickly! Next ukrainian offensive in the making in the Ugledar direction.

    This map only confirms how delusional the fanboys are and proves what I said was right from the get go
    Unfortunately, maps tell you very little about what is actually going on, only where things are located at the time the map was drawn.


    It shows how much ground they gave up and that there is no cauldron going to be formed which is what the fanboys here kept saying

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    Erk
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    Post  Erk Sun Sep 11, 2022 4:46 pm

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    Erk wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    Azi wrote:New map of Russian MoD shows everything west of the Oskol river abandoned.

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #23 - Page 39 Img_2012

    Okay enough of shitstorm...I have no power and mood to critize anymore! Russian MoD and the Kremlin must get the head out of their ass to win this war. They should adapt quickly! Next ukrainian offensive in the making in the Ugledar direction.

    This map only confirms how delusional the fanboys are and proves what I said was right from the get go
    Unfortunately, maps tell you very little about what is actually going on, only where things are located at the time the map was drawn.


    It shows how much ground they gave up and that there is no cauldron going to be formed which is what the fanboys here kept saying

    Like I said, the map shows very little.
    For all we know half the Ukrainian troops in the push might already be dead, or just a few, maps tell you very little about the battle.

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    Hole
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    Post  Hole Sun Sep 11, 2022 4:53 pm

    Actually the Russian Military did the same thing now that it did a few month back in the northern part of the Kharkov region. Back then all the Nazi cheerleaders were telling us that soon Belgorod will be taken by the Kiev regime. Borderposts were erracted. Then the re-grouped russian forces advanced again, encircled some Ukro units, killed a few hundred and soon was quietly back. Not in the old positions but even better ones.

    Back in April we had the big re-grouping from the North to the East. The "big victory" for the UkroNazi regime, the "liberation" of Kiev...  Rolling Eyes

    Two weeks ago we had the same cheerleaders boasting about the huuuuuuuge "offensive" at the border of the Kherson region. Which turned out to be a big debacle for the Kiev regime and his western backers. The western MSM told us that the whole operation was planned with the help of and rehearsed with the american military. So it was a defeat for the Pentagon.

    Now we come to the current situation. It is actually much smaller then the retreat from the northern part of Kharkov. Much, much smaller then the "re-treat" from Kiev, Sumi and the other northern regions. It is comparable in size to the failed "Kherson offensive" aka "The mother of all offensives". But let´s take a look at the reaction at all those "social media" sites, Twitter, Telegram and so on. The reaction is much, much bigger then about all those former events.  All western troll farms and bots were activated, millions were spend on this campagne. The Ghost of Kiev flew around for weeks, shot down 20+ russian planes and received a few thousand likes. Today UkroNazis move around an empty village, no fighting, take a foto and receive tens of thousands of likes from the western trolls and bots.

    All of this should tell you something. It is desperation. Desperation on part of the Kiev regime and it´s western backers. A event close to a nothingburger is turned into a life-changing event.

    In 2 month a damaged russian truck will receive the same attention on Twitter.

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    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Sun Sep 11, 2022 4:55 pm

    Hole wrote:Actually the Russian Military did the same thing now that it did a few month back in the northern part of the Kharkov region. Back then all the Nazi cheerleaders were telling us that soon Belgorod will be taken by the Kiev regime. Borderposts were erracted. Then the re-grouped russian forces advanced again, encircled some Ukro units, killed a few hundred and soon was quietly back. Not in the old positions but even better ones.

    Back in April we had the big re-grouping from the North to the East. The "big victory" for the UkroNazi regime, the "liberation" of Kiev...  Rolling Eyes

    Two weeks ago we had the same cheerleaders boasting about the huuuuuuuge "offensive" at the border of the Kherson region. Which turned out to be a big debacle for the Kiev regime and his western backers. The western MSM told us that the whole operation was planned with the help of and rehearsed with the american military. So it was a defeat for the Pentagon.

    Now we come to the current situation. It is actually much smaller then the retreat from the northern part of Kharkov. Much, much smaller then the "re-treat" from Kiev, Sumi and the other northern regions. It is comparable in size to the failed "Kherson offensive" aka "The mother of all offensives". But let´s take a look at the reaction at all those "social media" sites, Twitter, Telegram and so on. The reaction is much, much bigger then about all those former events.  All western troll farms and bots were activated, millions were spend on this campagne. The Ghost of Kiev flew around for weeks, shot down 20+ russian planes and received a few thousand likes. Today UkroNazis move around an empty village, no fighting, take a foto and receive tens of thousands of likes from the western trolls and bots.

    All of this should tell you something. It is desperation. Desperation on part of the Kiev regime and it´s western backers. A event close to a nothingburger is turned into a life-changing event.

    In 2 month a damaged russian truck will receive the same attention on Twitter.

    Completely different situations, but go on be a spin doctor

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    Post  Firebird Sun Sep 11, 2022 4:55 pm

    Arkanghelsk wrote:
    JohninMK wrote:

    https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2022/09/09/u-s-ups-the-ante-are-we-indeed-headed-into-wwiii-and-what-can-save-us/

    In essence what I have already said since February 24...

    The strikes on "dual use infrastructure" as well as Kiev, and not only Kiev, means VKS will use the Syrian conflict experience to level all of Ukraine

    On the other hand, mobilization is still not a necessity

    You can deal damage to VSU with airstrikes as in Syria

    You have to annihilate Ukrainian infrastructure, and employ FAB 250, 500, 1500, and other such bombs for the task at a large scale

    If you recall, the VKS identified oil trucks and other equipment moving across the border near Turkey

    In the same scenario, the VKS must fly to the border with Poland from Belarus and simply annihilate whatever comes across the border

    It also means refugees from Ukraine will number the Syrian war

    And why shouldn't it? In Syria people fled the war in boats to reach Europe

    Here, it is the same, if Europe and the US are parties to the conflict, then allow them to absorb the consequences of massive destruction of Ukrainian "dual use infrastructure " in fact by supplying weapons, they de facto have declared that they will house the 10 million (or more) additional Ukrainians that will flee Ukraine once the VKS begins its strategic bombing campaign

    It can begin in the east, using Dnieper as a border, destroying all urban agglomeration east of the Dnieper, starting with Kiev , (itself an analogue to Damascus) , begin with destroying Kiev with precision strikes, use Kalibr on all infrastructure where they are housing weapons , even it is civilian infrastructure,  and reattempt the assault on Kiev from Belarus

    Once Kiev falls, do the same to Sumy and Chernigov, bomb the cities and let the army enter from Russia, secure some corridors, and allow civilians to exit the cities, as you intensify the strikes

    Proceed to consolidate the gains to Kharkov, and Dnipropetrovsk

    All the cities should look like Syria, with buildings destroyed to prevent them from hiding

    Then go in and clean the city entirely block by block

    Voila- you have captured the left bank of Ukraine, without mobilization, or employment of nuclear weapons

    Civilian casualties : maybe 50,000 to 150,000, with margin for error

    It is acceptable

    Now let the western parts of Ukraine decide if it will be their fate

    why doesn't Russia get Novorossiya to bomb Poland and the Baltics. ISlamics to bomb Washington. And Russia itself bomb the Nazi West of the Pukraine.
    Why carpet bomb the pro Russian regions?

    Countries bomb terrorist groups that cause mayhem. Why not bomb terrorist govts that do bigger versions of the same?
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    Post  caveat emptor Sun Sep 11, 2022 5:05 pm

    Erk wrote:
    Like I said, the map shows very little.
    For all we know half the Ukrainian troops in the push might already be dead, or just a few, maps tell you very little about the battle.
    Map shows line of  defense or contact, as Ru MoD sees it. I don't think Ukrainian control all of it as, for example, they still didn't enter Vovchansk per reports. But Russian army withdrew.
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    Post  ALAMO Sun Sep 11, 2022 5:05 pm

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    It shows how much ground they gave up and that there is no cauldron going to be formed which is what the fanboys here kept saying

    You are discussing your phantom pains again.
    "Kept saying" was wondering about a possible outcome.
    Different scenarios, when we don't have enough data to evaluate.
    And we don't have it, for 3 days the Internet was floded by fakes, all over.
    Part of that was a deliberate Ukro information war, but the other was panic.
    Plus some cynical likes harvesters, as always.
    It is slightly better now as the fog rises, but still must be very careful with judgments.
    Seems that Russkie repeated the March withdrawal, that is all that is known at the moment.
    I will tell you a secret, psst ...
    Most of the sane people here do not pretend to be oracles, you know?
    We do admit to having third-rate information feedback we base our judgments on.
    But sure, there is a bunch of folks who baptized themselves as prophets  Laughing
    You constantly mix both types and add your own delusions.

    caveat emptor wrote:
    Map shows line of  defense or contact, as Ru MoD sees it. I don't think Ukrainian control all of it as, for example, they still didn't enter Vovchansk per reports. But Russian army withdrew.

    They did.
    Proving again extreme flexibility in this conflict.


    Last edited by ALAMO on Sun Sep 11, 2022 5:15 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  caveat emptor Sun Sep 11, 2022 5:12 pm

    Arkanghelsk wrote:
    In essence what I have already said since February 24...

    The strikes on "dual use infrastructure" as well as Kiev, and not only Kiev, means VKS will use the Syrian conflict experience to level all of Ukraine

    On the other hand, mobilization is still not a necessity

    You can deal damage to VSU with airstrikes as in Syria

    You have to annihilate Ukrainian infrastructure, and employ FAB 250, 500, 1500, and other such bombs for the task at a large scale

    If you recall, the VKS identified oil trucks and other equipment moving across the border near Turkey

    In the same scenario, the VKS must fly to the border with Poland from Belarus and simply annihilate whatever comes across the border

    It also means refugees from Ukraine will number the Syrian war

    And why shouldn't it? In Syria people fled the war in boats to reach Europe

    Here, it is the same, if Europe and the US are parties to the conflict, then allow them to absorb the consequences of massive destruction of Ukrainian "dual use infrastructure " in fact by supplying weapons, they de facto have declared that they will house the 10 million (or more) additional Ukrainians that will flee Ukraine once the VKS begins its strategic bombing campaign

    It can begin in the east, using Dnieper as a border, destroying all urban agglomeration east of the Dnieper, starting with Kiev , (itself an analogue to Damascus) , begin with destroying Kiev with precision strikes, use Kalibr on all infrastructure where they are housing weapons , even it is civilian infrastructure,  and reattempt the assault on Kiev from Belarus

    Once Kiev falls, do the same to Sumy and Chernigov, bomb the cities and let the army enter from Russia, secure some corridors, and allow civilians to exit the cities, as you intensify the strikes

    Proceed to consolidate the gains to Kharkov, and Dnipropetrovsk

    All the cities should look like Syria, with buildings destroyed to prevent them from hiding

    Then go in and clean the city entirely block by block

    Voila- you have captured the left bank of Ukraine, without mobilization, or employment of nuclear weapons

    Civilian casualties : maybe 50,000 to 150,000, with margin for error

    It is acceptable

    Now let the western parts of Ukraine decide if it will be their fate
    There are some really low hanging fruit, if they want to hurt Ukraine. Finish off Kremenchuk refinery for one and destroy large underground gas reservoirs in the Western Ukraine. Throw them into energy crisis. Ukrainian civilians in the western part are enemy and extremely hostile one at that.

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    Post  ALAMO Sun Sep 11, 2022 5:23 pm

    caveat emptor wrote:
    There are some really low hanging fruit, if they want to hurt Ukraine. Finish off Kremenchuk refinery for one and destroy large underground gas reservoirs in the Western Ukraine. Throw them into energy crisis. Ukrainian civilians in the western part are enemy and extremely hostile one at that.

    That is very true, this thing bothers me back from February.
    But - again - I don't know all the goals Russkie wants to achieve. scratch
    Maybe in some surveys r opinion pools turned out, that the acceptance level for new reality in ex-Ukraine will be higher is the population won't struggle as much? scratch
    I don't know.
    There are people paid for that, who are doing it as a profession.
    I can weld, but I am not a welder, and I would never try to teach a lesson to a skilled welder because he would eat me raw, including my boots.

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    Post  caveat emptor Sun Sep 11, 2022 5:28 pm

    ALAMO wrote:
    They did.
    Proving again extreme flexibility in this conflict.
    That was tactical decison. They had to do it amd it was.done according to text book. It also shows that there will be no pincers, this was not a trap for Ukraine before counterattack etc. 
    Politically this is a big blow on domestic front meaning in Russia and Eastern Ukraine. One of the basic premises of SMO was betrayed: Русские своих не бросают.
    That's exactly what they've done to in parts of Kharkov oblast which they controlled. It was also widely touted by everyone : Russians are here to stay, take Russian passports, training of teachers to abide by Russian school standards. Now, in Balakleya alone, 93 teachers were rounded for questioning along with other pro-Russian people.
    And this overused schtick that they could leave is not.going to work. First, collapse was too quick and people couldn't leave that fast and people are always reluctant to leave everything they've built and lived their whole life and go into unknown. Podolyaka gave example of Kupyansk, where local administration "left in underpants."

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    Post  Arsenic Sun Sep 11, 2022 5:39 pm

    If Russia was laying a trap, they would not have abandoned everything west of Oskil river..They would have attacked in a pincer movement a couple of days ago, when Ukraine Army had reached the outskirts of Kupyansk, in a pincer movement from North and South, creating a cauldron. The fact that they could not do this, means Russia was left flat footed... The Ukranians will now dig in, and that Kharkov Republic flag which Russia had spent some time designing, is in some gutter behind the Kupyansk administration building. Just imagine the blood and Equipment, Russia would have to spend to get it all back...
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    Post  ALAMO Sun Sep 11, 2022 5:43 pm

    caveat emptor wrote:[
    That was tactical decison. They had to do it amd it was.done according to text book. It also shows that there will be no pincers, this was not a trap for Ukraine before counterattack etc. 
    Politically this is a big blow on domestic front meaning in Russia and Eastern Ukraine. One of the basic premises of SMO was betrayed: Русские своих не бросают.
    That's exactly what they've done to in parts of Kharkov oblast which they controlled. It was also widely touted by everyone : Russians are here to stay, take Russian passports, training of teachers to abide by Russian school standards. Now, in Balakleya alone, 93 teachers were rounded for questioning along with other pro-Russian people.
    And this overused schtick that they could leave is not.going to work. First, collapse was too quick and people couldn't leave that fast and people are always reluctant to leave everything they've built and lived their whole life and go into unknown. Podolyaka gave example of Kupyansk, where local administration "left in underpants."

    Do you know what I find the most traumatic part of this situation?
    To realize how fragile is human psychic is, seeing that sane and perfect fine lads are turning into some fuckin' zombies because exposed to the propaganda for a day too long.
    Since February, we watched the same pictures.
    Russian army just struck like thunder, with deep raids&dozens of thousands of km2 contested areas in days.
    It turned out, that the political solution is not an option.
    They have changed the whole strategy in an eye blink.
    Just withdraw forces from the waste conquested area, in an organized manner, and so bloody fast that it took the opponents a 24h to realize that they are no longer there.
    A whole campaign was resettled to the brand new approach, Russkie army lowered the casualties ratio by a factor. Grinding the enemy in thousands, inflicting severe damage to the military infrastructure, gear&men.
    The opponent unleashed a panic, last chance counteroffensive that was nulled in the two most strategic directions, with tens of thousands KIA/WIA, hundreds of irreplaceable equipment gone.
    At one of the directions, facing human waves tactics against a small covering contingent, they performed a mass evacuation of the civilian population, followed by an organized troops withdrawal, again inflicting thousands of KIA/WIA to the advancing enemy.
    Each and any time, they have proved extreme flexibility, capability for a speedy maneuver in face of an overwhelming enemy, serious care of both civilian and military men lives.
    Still, some will be running panic mode like a headless chickens.
    Amazing!

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    Post  caveat emptor Sun Sep 11, 2022 6:00 pm

    ALAMO wrote:Do you know what I find the most traumatic part of this situation?
    To realize how fragile is human psychic is, seeing that sane and perfect fine lads are turning into some fuckin' zombies because exposed to the propaganda for a day too long.
    Since February, we watched the same pictures.
    Russian army just struck like thunder, with deep raids&dozens of thousands of km2 contested areas in days.
    You and some others are really trying hard to imply that we are casulaties of enemy propaganda or some such. 
    I wholeheartedly agreed with leaving north of Ukraine around Kiev and in Chernigov. But, they left on theor own accord. I don't agree with this one. Firstly, i see it as military **** up. They gambled, by understaffing defense in the sector and then just left when Ukrainians overcrowded them. There was no plan beforehand. Response was influenced by Ukrainian success. Second thing, and i keep pointing this is that they had responsibility towards civilians in the area.
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    Post  ALAMO Sun Sep 11, 2022 6:04 pm

    I am not implying that to you.
    Back in March, seeing the Twitter feedback, I was shocked at how bad the operation is going.
    Took me a while to finally realize, that they talk again and again same things, to pretend those to be different.
    And I have reminded myself of the 080808 immediately, how about any destroyed truck was photographed from 360deg directions, and uploaded as new and new.
    A good memory is nice Laughing

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    Post  Arrow Sun Sep 11, 2022 6:07 pm

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    Post  Airbornewolf Sun Sep 11, 2022 6:19 pm

    When you over-estimate your own capability's.

    Ukraine counter-attack repelled at Sands

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    Post  limb Sun Sep 11, 2022 6:27 pm

    If this is just like the sumy and chernigov withdrawal, this means that russia won't come back to the kharkov region at all, because they never counterattacked at sumy or chernigov either. Kharkov is lost for good or at least for a very long time.


    Last edited by limb on Sun Sep 11, 2022 6:28 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  zorobabel Sun Sep 11, 2022 6:28 pm

    Russian equipment abandoned on the Kharkov front: https://t.me/swodki/161000
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    Post  Arrow Sun Sep 11, 2022 6:32 pm

    Calibration.

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    Post  Backman Sun Sep 11, 2022 6:43 pm

    billybatts91 wrote:Seems like BS to me and why wait 30 days? Seems like folks are getting real delusional.


    How the hell is this delusional ? Putin would be the one to wait 30 days to mobilize.

    The political pressure is mounting.

    Regardless of what is going on on the fronts, they can't waste the opportunity to mobilize. They need to push the scum back hundreds of kilometers to end the terror shelling


    Last edited by Backman on Sun Sep 11, 2022 6:54 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    lyle6
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    Post  lyle6 Sun Sep 11, 2022 6:46 pm

    Airbornewolf wrote:When you over-estimate your own capability's.

    Ukraine counter-attack repelled at Sands

    Ukrainian counter-battery in action: eat hundreds of shells to the face causing barrel consumption and fatigue amongst artillery crews.
    Only advance when you've more targets than the Russians shells Razz

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    Post  Arrow Sun Sep 11, 2022 6:47 pm

    zorobabel wrote:Russian equipment abandoned on the Kharkov front: https://t.me/swodki/161000

    There are a lot of pictures of abandoned Russian equipment from this flexible retirement.

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    Post  limb Sun Sep 11, 2022 6:48 pm

    Arrow wrote:
    zorobabel wrote:Russian equipment abandoned on the Kharkov front: https://t.me/swodki/161000

    There are a lot of pictures of abandoned Russian equipment from this flexible retirement.

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #23 - Page 39 A79d0ec9c25a
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #23 - Page 39 B3dd62d54b87

    Out of everything, why abandon SPGs?
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    Post  Regular Sun Sep 11, 2022 6:52 pm

    With all the rear staging attacks, how do UA still has fuel and supply for this motorised thrust?

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