Russia and economic war by the west #2

The Russian-Indian consortium of Transmashholding has won a tender for the production and supply of 120 passenger electric trains (1920 wagons) to India. The transaction amount is $1.7 billion, and this is the largest foreign order in the Russian railway engineering industry. The only thing bigger than him is a contract with the Russian Federal Passenger Company.

According to the terms of the tender, production should be established in India at the Indian Railways plants in Latur and Chennai (Madras), the winner will modernize their production facilities and depots, and will also receive a contract for maintenance of rolling stock for 35 years.

Earlier, the Indian edition of The Times of India reported that a consortium consisting of TMH and Rail Vikas Nigam offered the lowest price — 1.2 billion rupees ($14.5 million) for one train as part of a tender for the purchase of Vande Bharat electric trains. Competitors' applications turned out to be more expensive. A consortium of companies from India Titagarh and BHEL was ready to supply rolling stock for 1.4 billion rupees ($16.9 million) per train, a joint venture of German Siemens and Indian BEML — 1.45 billion rupees ($ 17.6 million). Offers from France's Alstom, as well as from Switzerland's Stadler and India's MSD turned out to be even more expensive. The service package for the maintenance of electric trains is not included in the contract price.

The companies offering the lowest price will receive an order for 120 trains. The remaining 80 will go to the second-place consortium (in this case, it is the application of the Indian Titagarh and BHEL), but only on condition that it reduces the cost of delivery to the level of the winner. If he refuses, the other contestants will receive a similar offer. If there are no takers, then these 80 trains will also be supplied by the TMX and RVNL consortium.

The total amount of the contract for the supply of 120 electric trains, based on the proposed conditions, will amount to $1.74 billion. If an option for another 80 trains is also selected, it will grow to $2.9 billion.

https://www.vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2023/04/01/969132-konsortsium-transmashholdinga

Will the US or EU sanction them?

Visegrád 24
@visegrad24
·
10h
The French liquor giant Pernod Richard has decided to re-enter the Russian market.

The company owns:

Ballantine's
Chivas Regal
Jameson
Absolut Vodka
Wyborowa
Beefeater
Havana Club
Kahlúa
Malibu
Minttu

& many more…

The resilience of the Russian economy struck the West, by Olga Samofalova for VZGLYAD. 04.13.2023.

The IMF has improved its forecast for the Russian economy for 2023 for the second time. If last year the fund was waiting for the fall of our economy, then in January it rewrote the forecast for growth. And in April, the fund decided not to be stingy and increased the growth rate of Russia's GDP. Our economy after the next tough sanctions again surprises Western economists. How?

For the second time this year, the International Monetary Fund improves its forecast for the growth rate of the Russian economy in 2023. Last year, the fund expected a fall of 2.3%, but already in January raised its forecast for Russia's GDP to growth of 0.3%. And in the April report, the IMF again improved the forecast and now expects the growth of the Russian economy to accelerate by 0.7%.

According to Bloomberg, the IMF's expected GDP growth in Russia in 2023 to 0.7% is the second most optimistic forecast after JPMorgan's forecast of plus 1%. Meanwhile, the median forecast of economists monitored by the agency still suggests a contraction of the Russian economy by 1.7%.

The Russian authorities are also optimistic and expect the Russian economy to grow this year - most by more than 1%.

Why is the IMF looking at the Russian economy with such optimism? And what makes the fund improve its forecasts? The fund's forecasts are changing as the effect of Western sanctions pressure on the Russian economy becomes clear. When the embargo and the ceiling on oil prices were just launched by the European Union, the West believed in a strong negative effect on Russia. However, when these restrictions began to take effect, it became clear that Russia was managing to reduce the negative effect on its economy. And the further, the better she does it.

“They managed to maintain a pretty strong momentum in the economy through, for example, very strong fiscal measures. And so far, they have managed to maintain the stability of export earnings, although we expect it to decline,” explains IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinsha.

How does Russia manage to maintain the stability of its economy in adverse conditions?

According to the Ministry of Finance, in the first quarter of 2023, Russia's oil and gas revenues decreased by 45% compared to the same period last year. This happened against the background of lower volumes and low prices for Urals (less than $50 per barrel), which led to a reduction in MET and export duties. However, apparently, this is a peak low, which will soon be passed. Because Russia is establishing logistics and supplies of oil and oil products from Europe to Asia, plus oil prices have begun to rise again after the decision of OPEC + to cut production, the price gap between the world price and the cost of Russian Urals is also shrinking.

“After a weak beginning of the year for budget revenues, most likely, in March, a certain extremum was already passed in terms of minimum export earnings. Taking into account the time lag between the shipment of goods and payment, the inflow of revenue into the country should increase as early as May. This, for example, should have a positive impact on the ruble, and we expect the dollar to weaken to the level of 80 rubles in the coming weeks,” says Mikhail Zeltser, stock market expert at BCS Mir Investments.

Export revenues will begin to grow already in the second quarter due to lower production volumes and the recovery of world oil prices. In addition, the discount on Russian export oil to Brent has already decreased from $33 per barrel to $29.5 per barrel, which also leads to an increase in Russian export earnings, says Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global.

The weaker ruble than it was last year also helps the growth of budget revenues. In addition, while oil and gas revenues were falling, non-oil and gas revenues, on the contrary, grew by 14%. Finally, GDP growth is helped by increased government spending, which fuels the economy.

“Against the background of lost revenues, the state seeks to use all sources of budget financing. One of them is dividends. The record volume of payments from Sberbank will partially offset the budget imbalance. With a total amount of payments of 565 billion rubles from Sberbank, the budget will receive half, and this is about 10% of the current deficit. Other state and quasi-state companies can follow the same path, which, for example, will continue to fuel the growth of shares on the stock exchange,” Zeltser believes.

It has already become clear, including to IMF economists, that Russia was able to adapt to the sanctions this time as well. “Alternative markets for product exports were found, new supply chains were built, and parallel imports began to work. The raw material sector and the automotive industry had a harder time than others. Direct export deliveries of oil, gas and oil products fell, losses of companies and the budget increased significantly due to lower prices for Russian raw materials. However, the industry is seriously transforming: oil supplies have grown in the Asian direction,” says Marina Nikishova, Chief Economist of ZENIT Bank.

What else helps the Russian economy?

According to Nikishova, the basis for economic recovery this year will not be oil and gas exports, but domestic consumer demand, which is accelerating.

Of course, the reasonable actions of the Central Bank helped, which last year sharply raised the key rate to double-digit values, thanks to which Russia managed to curb inflation, Chernov notes. In annual terms, inflation has dropped to 3.3%, and by the end of April it may even be less than three percent. This is below the central bank's target of 4%. However, an excessive slowdown in inflation is also not good for business and the economy. However, the Central Bank believes that after low inflation rates in May and June, annual inflation rates will begin to increase and will amount to 5-7% per year. And already in 2024, it will return to the target level of 4%. The West, in comparison with its record inflationary processes, is, of course, envious.

Another supporting factor is the introduction of a new fiscal rule from the beginning of 2023, which now implies not only the purchase of foreign currency with excess profits from the sale of energy resources to replenish the NWF, but also the reverse operation to sell foreign currency from the NWF to eliminate the budget deficit, Chernov notes.

The slowdown in the decline in industrial production also testifies to the recovery of the Russian economy. If in December the industry fell by 4.3%, then in January - only by 2.4%, and in February the rate of decline slowed down to 1.7%. The depreciation of the ruble, again, facilitated exports for coal miners and metallurgists, Nikishova points out.

As a result, according to the first preliminary estimate, Russia's GDP for the first quarter of 2023 fell by only 2.7%, while the consensus forecast of analysts indicated a decline of 7%, says Chernov.

If the first quarter was indeed, as expected, the worst this year - adaptive after the new EU sanctions, then further macroeconomic indicators will be even better. This gives grounds for a positive turn of the Russian economy. “So far, our forecast also boils down to economic growth in 2023 in the range of 0.7–1.2%, but it may change along with important macro statistics,” says Chernov.

https://vz.ru/economy/2023/4/13/1207309.html

The companies that left are not going to come back as if nothing happened. They have lost their Russian market share and tangible assets. Maybe they
thought that Russia is so weak that they will get a pass but that is delusional. The article about how Russia's economy has been more robust than the
west expected underscores the delusion of the west. You would think that having a grip on reality would be normal for paid professionals. But it turns out
that circle jerking political fantasy and projection is the real state of mind of this class.

The best damage Russia can do to the NATzO hyena pack is to starve it of energy and other resources. No need for any terrorism or attack. NATzO clowns keep bleating about how Russia is a gas station posing as an economy and makes nothing, so just don't offer up the "gas" and see them squirm.

Oooops, how much more is affected?

15th April 2023 – (Bratislava) Slovakia has discovered a 1,500-ton shipment of Ukrainian grain tainted with chlorpyrifos, an organophosphate pesticide that is subject to an EU-wide ban. The country’s agriculture minister, Samuel Vlcan, announced on Thursday that the whole shipment would be destroyed.

The minister had first alerted the public to the issue the previous day, revealing that “traces” of pesticides had been discovered by “three independent certified laboratories” in a major haul of Ukrainian grain being transited through the country. The affected shipment weighed the equivalent of approximately 60 truckloads of produce on average and was discovered before the recently introduced measures to protect the local market, which involve the mandatory sealing of transit trucks.

On Thursday, Vlcan elaborated on the matter, stating that the contamination of the grain was so severe that the entire shipment had to be burned. “Unfortunately, it has been confirmed that it is a dangerous concentration, the substance is chlorpyrifos, which is banned in the European Union,” the minister told JOJ 24 broadcaster. He also pledged to ramp up reviewing products containing grain of Ukrainian origins.

The Ukrainian grain has been in the spotlight amid the ongoing conflict between Moscow and Kiev. Brussels permitted duty-free agricultural imports from the major grain-producing nation last year, purportedly to help it reach its customers in Africa and the Middle East. However, a large part of the exported grain ended up stuck in the EU, particularly in the eastern member states of the bloc.

https://www.dimsumdaily.hk/slovakia-destroys-1500-ton-shipment-of-ukrainian-grain-contaminated-with-eu-banned-pesticide/

One of the increasing number of unexpected side effects of the war on Russia.

pocalypsis pocalypseos 🅉
@apocalypseos
·
5h
Bangladesh & Russia have agreed to ditch the dollar & switch to using the yuan to pay for a nearly $12 bn Russian loan given to Dhaka for the construction of the Rooppur NPP. Electricity uplifts populations out of poverty to afford everyone a dignified standard of living.

Germany Closes Its Last Nuclear Power Plants - Electricity Bills To Spike Up To 45%

One might say that the timing could not be worse for the implementation of "net zero" climate goals given the already boiling economic instability across the western world. Then again, maybe the timing is perfect for the people in power?

With stagflation still running rampant in the US and Europe the last thing anyone should be worried about is a less than 1°C rise in global temperatures in the past 100 years. There is no concrete evidence of any significant climate crisis, and all the people who tell us a crisis is right around the corner do so while raking in billions in funding dollars from governments and think-tank institutions with a vested interest in reinforcing the hysteria. In other words, there is no basis for exponential restrictions on "greenhouse gas" emissions. The climate crisis claim is a sham.

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/germany-closes-its-last-nuclear-power-plants-electricity-bills-spike-45

How the hell is Nato suppose to face Russia when their industries are completely crashing thanks to high energy prices??
No wonder they are desperate not to send Ukraine any major Western weapons system.
The West just does not have the ability to replace these losses.

How the hell is Nato suppose to face Russia when their industries are completely crashing thanks to high energy prices??
No wonder they are desperate not to send Ukraine any major Western weapons system.
The West just does not have the ability to replace these losses.

I would ask the same question, but honestly I think the answer is just stupidity. Or internal political rivalries in Germany, whatever.

Don't interrupt your enemy when they're making a mistake, and all that.

Very disturbing that the Banderastanis are putting all manner of "pesticide" filth on crops in what has been amongst the best soil in the World.
I hope that satan Gates and his friends haven't been planting GM filth too.
Once Russia liberates, there needs to be a nice big gallows built on Maidan Square for these atrocities.

Companies from China and Turkey expressed their desire to acquire business in Russia, 04.22.2023.

Expert Sergienko: companies in China, Iran and Turkey are interested in buying a business in Russia.

MOSCOW, April 22 - RIA Novosti. Companies from China, Iran and Turkey are considering the possibility of buying a business in Russia and are ready to develop local production here, Yakov Sergienko, head of the consulting company Yakov and Partners, a partner in the former Russian division of McKinsey, said in an interview with RIA Novosti.

"In general, companies from China, Iran, Turkey and other countries want to work in Russia and are considering buying businesses," Sergienko said.

According to him, Chinese companies are looking at increasing cooperation with the Russian mining industry in terms of replacing machines and other production elements.

“There is a huge potential in the automotive industry, the aviation industry. Here the Chinese colleagues are ready and are already actively developing local production,” he added.

Russian enterprises are also looking for opportunities to diversify their supplies to other countries, the source said. Experts see good potential for bilateral investment, in particular, in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

"Taking into account the potential of the market and the needs of our customers, we are developing our offer and presence in the UAE: Ras Al Khaimah , Dubai , Abu Dhabi . In the near future, we will expand our presence in the market of a number of emirates and begin to offer services for companies in the UAE", he said.

At the same time, similar trends are visible in India, Sergienko noted. He expressed confidence that both countries would clearly benefit from the development of trade and economic ties, and the Russian business, the expert believes, has finally begun to take this market seriously.

https://ria.ru/20230422/biznes-1867038826.html

How Russia will replace Duracell batteries, 04.22.2023.

Experts explained how Russia can replace American Duracell batteries.

Battery manufacturer Duracell leaves Russia. The news that came the day before caused a little consumer excitement: some began to buy additional power supplies “just in case”. The question was: will Russia cope on its own? But it turns out that the country already has its own battery manufacturers. And the departure of the American brand will only clear the way for them.

Information about the departure of Duracell from Russia was confirmed by the head of the company in the country, Yuri Korotaev. The published letter notes that such a decision was made by the shareholders. The reason for the termination of work in Russia could be the lack of supplies of products from the company's plant in Belgium.

The Russian "daughter" of Duracell will be liquidated, it intends to "pay off the staff." The company breaks all existing contracts and sells stocks of goods. Deliveries of products will be discontinued in the coming weeks. At the same time, the company “will fulfill any current / new orders” until stocks run out. The company's environmental projects for the disposal of used batteries, in principle, will not be curtailed, the details are now being spoken out.

This news somewhat discouraged the Russians. Some were seriously worried and began to buy additional batteries in reserve. But in fact, there is nothing for consumers to worry about. They definitely won't run out of batteries.

The news excited, most likely because the Duracell brand is on everyone's lips. This is due to the fact that the brand owned by the American manufacturer was distinguished by an aggressive marketing campaign. The Americans spent a lot of money on advertising the goods, and one could get the impression that their withdrawal could allegedly provoke a shortage in Russia and an increase in prices.

However, it is not. Duracell is by no means the only foreign battery manufacturer present on the Russian market.

It is curious that the world's largest battery manufacturers Varta and Energizer have already left the Russian market, but ordinary Russians did not even notice this. Apparently, the departure of Duracell excited the Russians precisely because the aggressive marketing campaign worked.

The press service of the Ministry of Industry and Trade also assured that there are enough analogues of Duracell products from other foreign brands on the Russian market. In stores you can find, for example, GP batteries, which, in fact, have the widest range of products in Russia, SAFT batteries and others. But the main thing is that Russia has its own battery manufacturers. Moreover, the volumes of their production in Russia are planned to be increased, and the departure of foreign competitors from the market is only good for them. In fact, even the USSR had its own production of various batteries, and since then modern enterprises have appeared in Russia that can compete with Western batteries.

Thus, in 2010 Videoservice VS, which has extensive experience in portable electronics, created its own brand to expand its influence on the Russian market. Power supplies have entered the sphere of interests of the manufacturer, and the cost of products manufactured in Russia and Southeast Asia is consistently in the most affordable segment. They produce various batteries under the Perfeo brand. Each new model is tested in the Moscow laboratory.

Ergolux is the best young brand that was launched in 2013. Foton batteries are called optimal in terms of price and quality (the brand appeared in 2011). It is believed that in terms of quality these batteries are not inferior to the outgoing American ones, but in terms of price they are more profitable.

Another battery manufacturer is Robiton, which has been on the market for over 15 years. And its products meet EU quality standards, and are sold not only in Russia, but in the CIS countries.

Finally, the flagship of the domestic segment of the battery market is the Cosmos brand, which has been operating for a quarter of a century. Production sites, and there are more than 35 of them, are located not only in Russia, but also in Belarus and China. The company is represented in 110 cities of the country, the number of its dealers exceeds 400. It is a manufacturer with the largest dealer network.

In general, dozens of domestic and foreign companies operate on the Russian market, offering a wide range of alkaline (alkaline), lithium, rechargeable, salt, mercury and other batteries. Therefore, the shortage of batteries is definitely not worth waiting for. Most likely, even Duracell batteries will continue to be sold after the company leaves.

To do this, it will be enough to add the goods to the list of permitted parallel imports. Duracell batteries are manufactured in different countries. A source in the Ministry of Industry and Trade confirmed that Duracell batteries could be added to the list of products for parallel imports if the company's withdrawal is confirmed.

“It is unlikely that the market will experience a shortage of batteries, as their imports from other countries, primarily from Asia, may be increased, in addition, it is possible that parallel imports of batteries of well-known brands can be established, which will also saturate the market. The state can take a number of measures to support the battery market, including support for importers, as well as assistance in the implementation of projects for the construction of factories for their production,” says Dmitry Baranov, a leading expert at Finam Management.

Russian companies continue to develop and plan to expand production. In August 2022, the authorities of the Krasnodar Territory announced the start of a project to build the country's first battery production plant in the Krymsky District. The company plans to produce batteries of standard sizes "AA" and "AAA". The declared volume of investments is 1 billion rubles. The Ministry of Industry and Trade confirmed that an investment project is being worked out in the Krasnodar Territory to create two lines for the production of alkaline (alkaline) batteries in the amount of 250 million units per year. The project is planned to be implemented by AB-Batteries by 2024.

“It is possible that a number of battery manufacturers will start producing household batteries, as they have the necessary competencies, but they will need time, and government assistance will not be superfluous,” says Baranov.

As for the environmental aspects of the issue, here the state can regulate the market so that only modern batteries with an increased resource are imported into the country, the expert believes. In addition, the government may step up battery recycling efforts, as well as launch an information campaign to explain the benefits of new standard batteries.

https://vz.ru/economy/2023/4/22/1208649.html

Western brands disappearing from Russian malls – analysts, 04.23.2023.

The share of foreign products has dropped by half since late 2021, calculations show.

The presence of foreign brands in Moscow’s largest shopping centers has dropped significantly over the past year amid an exit of Western companies from the Russian market, according to data shared by consultancy firm Nikoliers.

According to the company’s calculations, at the end of the first quarter of 2023 the share of foreign brands in Moscow’s 12 largest shopping malls was 35.9%. That figure is almost half than in the fourth quarter of 2021, prior to the start of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine and the Western sanctions that followed.

Analysts noted that spaces previously owned by foreign brands have been actively occupied by Russian retailers, both long established and those that bought out the businesses of departing companies.

Meanwhile, new foreign brands from Türkiye and other ‘friendly’ nations have also boosted their presence in Russia. According to Nikoliers’ estimates, since the beginning of 2022, 56 such companies have announced their intention to launch businesses in the country. Ten of them have already opened stores in Russia and five are in the final stages of launching. Analysts noted that 64% of these brands are Turkish.

Anna Nikandrova, a partner at Nikoliers, stated that “Russia remains an interesting market for foreign brands opening their first stores both in Moscow and other regions.”

“We are already witnessing a good pace of new projects opening in quality shopping centers and we expect that by the end of the year this dynamic will continue... At the same time, it is worth noting the high activity on the part of Russian brands, which last year embraced the additional opportunities which opened for them. A number of retailers with ambitious strategies received the opportunity to implement them in the current situation, and a number of other companies, in turn, adjusted their development plans towards a more rapid expansion,” she added.

According to data from the Kiev School of Economics’ (KSE) Leave Russia project, out of 3,157 foreign firms that operated in Russia prior to the start of the conflict in Ukraine, only 215 have so far exited the market, which is less than 7%. Russian authorities, meanwhile, have been actively reorienting both imports and exports from Western countries and companies to new markets, and introducing other trade mechanisms to help keep the domestic market well-stocked.

https://www.rt.com/business/575010-russian-brands-sanctions-foreign-companies/

https://thewire.in/diplomacy/india-signs-deal-to-adopt-moscows-spfs-system-for-banking-payments-to-russia-report

India Signs Deal to Adopt Moscow’s SPFS System for Banking Payments to Russia: Report

New Delhi: The Narendra Modi government signed a significant deal with the Vladimir Putin administration last week where India agreed to adopt the Russian financial messaging system, Service Bureau of Financial Messaging System of the Bank of Russia (SPFS), for making banking payments to Russia, reports The New Indian Express.

The landmark agreement was signed between external affairs minister S. Jaishankar and visiting Russian deputy prime minister Denis Manturov on April 18 in New Delhi, said the newspaper. The deal also allows acceptance of Indian Ru-Pay cards and India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI) in Russia, and the Russian MIR cards and its Fast Payments System (FPS) in India.

According to Bloomberg, about $2 billion in payments from India to Russia is stuck over the last year, and Russia has decided to stop supplying credit for about $10 billion worth of spare parts as well as the two S-400 missile-defence system batteries that are yet to be delivered.

India and Russia had earlier agreed to settle payments through Special Rupee Vostro Accounts (SRVA) but that has been stalled because of fear of western sanctions on Indian banks and the high imbalance in bilateral trade. Russia was keen to be paid in Yuans or Dirhams. While India is not keen to adopt the Chinese currency, the UAE has been wary of western sanctions in case India uses Dirhams to pay Russia for crude oil above the western mandated price of $60 per barrel.

The latest agreement clarifies that Russia can use the surplus Indian rupees to conduct other businesses in India or remit them back to Russia, reports the newspaper. The remittance is unlikely because of the Russian reluctance, as has been the case with the Iranian central bank, to have a reserve of rupees. As per Bloomberg, Russia had turned down India’s offer that the former use rupee proceeds from weapon sales to invest in Indian debt and capital markets to avoid stockpiling.

SPFS is a financial messaging system that works like the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), the international payment system used by banks to transfer funds worldwide. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US and the EU removed most Russian banks from the SWIFT network.

Since then, Russia has been asking India to adopt the SPFS to make the payments. Moscow developed the SPFS after Russia was threatened with expulsion from SWIFT when it annexed Crimea in 2014.

Proving that even an undeclared war can have very unexpected side effects.

Arthur Morgan
@ArthurM40330824
·
3h

- Beginning of breakdown of unipolar world order
- introduction of #Dedollarisation
- strengthening of #BRICS and #EurasiaInitiative
- proving that US sanctions are toothless
- protecting millions of #Russian speaking #Donbass citizens from annihilation.

Not bad for 1 year.