Russia and economic war by the west #2

About two thousand foreign firms and corporations intend to leave the Russian market. The portal informs about this Lenta.ru with reference to the British edition of the Financial Times (FT). However, first the Commission on foreign investment under the Government of the Russian Federation must give such companies permission to sell their Russian assets.

According to the FT, at the moment, out of 1,400 foreign organizations operating in Russia with an annual income of at least $ 5 million, only 206 have already sold all their assets. It is noted that the aforementioned government commission meets once a quarter, considering about seven applications during the meeting.

In addition, it is clarified that foreign companies that want to stop operating in the Russian Federation will now need to make a contribution to the state budget in the amount of at least 10% of the market value of the resources put up for sale.

https://jpgazeta.ru/rossiyu-sobirayutsya-pokinut-poryadka-2000-zarubezhnyh-kompanij/?utm_source=finobzor.ru&utm_campaign=auction

The largest Western companies selling grain left Russia. The West expected the news to send a shudder through Vladimir Putin, but the Russian leader, as it turns out, has nothing to worry about. Writes about it Bloomberg. Especially for its readers, PolitRussia presents a retelling of the publication.

As the American edition notes, the Western establishment has done everything to ensure that foreign grain traders leave the Russian market. The calculation was that without these companies, Russian grain sales on the international market would drop significantly.

"Vladimir Putin should have had goosebumps when he learned about the departure of these companies," the article says.

However, the Russian president reacted differently than the West expected: he took the news extremely calmly. Moreover, Putin even showed the door to foreigners who set the conditions on which they could continue to operate in the Russian Federation. And now it is becoming obvious to everyone that Vladimir Putin simply had nothing to worry about. This made the West confused.

Despite the departure of leading Western traders, Russian grain continues to enter the world markets, writes Bloomberg. Inside the Russian Federation, foreign traders are replaced by Russian firms. And outside the country, Western companies continue to supply Russian grain.

“Russia is still by far the world's largest exporter of wheat, making this country vital to global food security. The Russian Federation is also one of the world's largest producers of corn, barley and sunflower seeds.

According to an article in the American publication, the Washington establishment should now be concerned about the influence of the Russian Federation on the grain market, as this gives Moscow diplomatic leverage in the Global South. Russian grain is sold to countries like Egypt, Bangladesh and Turkey that are sympathetic to Russia - or at least not critical of it.

Bloomberg adds that after Western companies leave the Russian grain market, Russian firms will take their place. At the same time, without Western traders, Washington and Brussels will lose a key source of intelligence.

https://politros-com.translate.goog/23966739-bloomberg_zapad_rasteryalsya_iz_za_neozhidannoi_reaktsii_putina_na_uhod_zernovih_kompanii_iz_rossii?utm_source=finobzor.ru&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en

Bloomberg adds that after Western companies leave the Russian grain market, Russian firms will take their place. At the same time, without Western traders, Washington and Brussels will lose a key source of intelligence.

An important point, and you would think they would learn from their oil export BS, where western shipping companies and western insurance companies could no longer export Russian oil priced above the G7 price caps so when they started to use Russian and other shipping companies and Russian and other insurance brokers then all of a sudden the west didn't know how much oil Russia was actually exporting... well DUH...

It is going to be the same with food and everything else... western companies will lose income and knowledge of Russian exports and Russian and third party companies will take over and earn money that was otherwise going to the west.

Russia is losing its dependence on the west and that will actually make them stronger and more independent... but you can't tell western leaders... they say Russia will collapse without western shipping companies and western insurance agencies because no other company could possibly do the job... surely...

https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2023/03/31/bruegel-rossiya-po-prezhnemu-zarabatyvaet-na-gaze-v-es-bolshe-chem-do-energokrizisa

Bruegel: Russia still earns more from gas in the EU than before the energy crisis

Despite a significant decrease in pipeline gas supplies, sales of blue fuel from Russia still bring more revenue to the country than before the energy crisis that broke out in the fall of 2021. Such data are provided by the European economic research center Bruegel.

According to him, in January 2023, the income of Russian companies from the sale of LNG and pipeline gas in Europe amounted to 2.96 billion euros. Monthly exports to the region brought less only until October 2021, when the energy crisis began to flare up in the EU. Based on Eurostat data, Bruegel estimates that Russian companies received the maximum revenue in March 2022 - 5.33 billion euros.

After that, fees declined and in January revenues from pipeline gas supplies almost equaled fees from LNG sales. If Gazprom, according to Bruegel, received 1.5 billion euros in the first month of the year, then LNG suppliers received 1.38 billion euros. The rest of the money came from the sale of autogas (SUG).

Last year, Gazprom's exports to Europe, excluding Turkey, fell from 148 billion cubic meters to 63 billion cubic meters. And LNG supplies from Russia increased by 20% - up to 23.4 billion cubic meters. Income growth is attributed to abnormally high fuel prices.

This winter, due to warm weather and large stocks, quotes have declined, but they still exceed pre-crisis prices by more than two times - about $ 500 per thousand cubic meters.

Bruegel believes that in 2023 Russia's revenues from the sale of gas in Europe could reach 21-68 billion euros, depending on the price of fuel. EU countries still failed to fully compensate for the decline in supplies from Gazprom, and they extended the program to reduce consumption by 15% until April 2024.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-breaks-with-u-s-allies-buys-russian-oil-at-prices-above-cap-1395accb

Japan Breaks With U.S. Allies, Buys Russian Oil at Prices Above Cap

TOKYO—The U.S. has rallied its European allies behind a $60-a-barrel cap on purchases of Russian crude oil, but one of Washington’s closest allies in Asia is now buying oil at prices above the cap.

Japan got the U.S. to agree to the exception, saying it needed it to ensure access to Russian energy. The concession shows Japan’s reliance on Russia for fossil fuels, which analysts said contributed to a hesitancy in Tokyo to back Ukraine more fully in its war with Russia.

Interesting that it is the Hungarians and Turkish and Japanese (ironic?) that are not suicidal when it comes to energy.

Well all 3 peoples have their origins somewhere in Siberia so perhaps that explains their preference for Siberian energy resources?

Post flamming_python Today at 7:37 am

Well all 3 peoples have their origins somewhere in Siberia so perhaps that explains their preference for Siberian energy resources? Twisted Evil

Goodie
Imagine that I was unaware that Hungarians originated somewhere in the Yamal area until very recently.

But I guess the issue is more complicated

Someone enlightened me a while ago, that the European "elites" quite often share the very same evolving process.
They are being targeted by the very same funds, the same leader educational programs, and quite often the same schools.
A couple of acting Euro politicians are graduates of the LSoE. Mrs. Bamberschmuck for example.
I know a few graduates of this noble alma mater , and they are all neocon goons with Prometheus syndrome and racism implemented in a full swing.
And I can bet golden chervonec vs. US treasury bond that it is not a coincidence.

Perhaps Russia should take a risk and say to Japan that they will lose ownership of their investments in Russia if the west steals Russian overseas assets and funds that have been frozen if Japan remains involved in any western sanctions against Russia.

Japan can then either drop all cooperation with the west over sanctions on Russia and not freeze, or run the risk of losing their investments in Russian energy infrastructure and also access to said energy resources... and perhaps if they think they can buy Russian resources from third parties at an extra cost maybe Russia might declare that any country selling energy to countries that seized Russian funds or assets will be banned from future sales of Russian energy...

That would stir up the nest a bit I think...

I guess it would become an option if things escalate further.

If you want Japan to be a sovereign country, so then accept them as one yourself and don't shaft them for something the rest of the West is doing if they're not taking part themselves.

i.e. if they're not confiscating Russian assets then there is no justification for confiscating theirs.
Of course if they do do that then let 'em have it. But otherwise don't... knocking Japan out of the Western orbit, even partially, is kind of like reeling in some of those real BIG fish. You start to strain too hard and you'll end up snapping the line. If they start to swim away, then let them tire themselves out on that for a while.. you still have them hooked. Come on, these are the basics. Will work with Japan and its Russian energy addiction too

Jeffrey Sachs thinks that Japan and South Korea will move closer to China. He is likely right about South Korea but Japan has some sort of
syndrome in regards to China. Like Ukria has a syndrome over Russia.

If someone should have a syndrome it´s the Chinese about the Japanese after what happened in WWII.
Korea is a natural ally of Russia and China. Problem is to get rid of the Americans without them burning
down the whole neighborhood.

If you want Japan to be a sovereign country, so then accept them as one yourself and don't shaft them for something the rest of the West is doing if they're not taking part themselves.

But they are not a sovereign country... they have US troops on their soil protecting them from themselves...

Japan is part of the G7 which agreed on the price caps and also impose all the economic sanctions on Russia that the other countries in the collective west do, so why be nice... they are wearing the colours of the western gang that wants you and your family dead, but they are getting exceptions from their leader so they can keep getting cheap energy from Russia.

Talk about wanting your cake and eating it too...

Eventually the west is going to steal everything Russian they can get their hands on... most of which most Russians could care less about because much of it is stolen gains of the super rich Russians buying luxury stuff and property in the west... let them take it. But a lot of what they are talking about is Russian foreign reserves of foreign currency held by Russian banks in Western banks, and that is rather different.

All the western companies following the sanctions have left Russia with agreements to come back in 5-10 years and buy back their businesses and assets for $1 or something... when the west actually starts stealing as opposed to freezing, then those assets can be seized too and agreements for them to return torn up, but I doubt that is going to cover everything... not to mention Japanese part ownership of an energy company in Russia allows them a chance to sabotage things with their say in things.

Japan has proven to be no friend of Russia, why cut them any slack at all for anything.

i.e. if they're not confiscating Russian assets then there is no justification for confiscating theirs.

Apart from this exemption they are following western sanctions in a bid to damage Russia economically... they probably think with a different leader they might get some islands back...

knocking Japan out of the Western orbit,

Having US troops on their soil is probably the only think holding them back from being nuts.

Jeffrey Sachs thinks that Japan and South Korea will move closer to China. He is likely right about South Korea but Japan has some sort of
syndrome in regards to China. Like Ukria has a syndrome over Russia.

The Japs have a massive superiority complex and really do not like other Asians... and in terms of not liking other Asians the other Asians generally feel the same in not liking the Japanese.

The Japs still think they were the victims of WWII...

Problem is to get rid of the Americans without them burning
down the whole neighborhood.

When their money is fully broken and no one accepts it any more then the one reason to let them on your soil disappears... the only place they will likely stay is Cuba... ironically.

MOSCOW (IA Realist) . It turns out that for eight years in a row the Central Bank imported cash into the Russian Federation in order to insure foreign assets against blocking. This maneuver was discovered by the Mobilization Economy telegram channel while studying the official annual report of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Quote from the document: “Starting from 2014, the Bank of Russia began an accelerated increase in investments in assets that cannot be blocked (frozen) by unfriendly states: gold, Chinese yuan and foreign cash, the import of which was carried out from abroad in volumes limited logistics capabilities. The report does not disclose the amount of cash accumulation. It is assumed that we are talking about $ 50-60 billion. Recall that $ 300 billion were arrested. “This is the answer to the question why the leadership of the Central Bank was not fired or put on trial, as many called for, after the freezing of Russian gold reserves. There was nothing to dismiss the leadership of the Central Bank. It is also clear now why the Central Bank did not publicly respond to criticism directed at it,” writes Mobilization Economy. But what about the remaining $240 billion? Shouldn't anyone be responsible for them? Six months later, details begin to open up: for what tricks the United States deprived the Russian Federation of the status of a “country with a market economy”. In October 2022, Russia began printing rubles backed by its own frozen reserves. 260 billion rubles ($3.6 billion) allocated from the NWF to cover the budget deficit were materialized in this way. Also, the Central Bank of Russia announced plans to print more than 2.8 trillion rubles, thus increasing the emission of the ruble. In order not to keep gold reserves, under which rubles are printed in the West, they hastened to lose them. This explains the flurry of statements from reputable Western financial institutions that Russian reserves cannot be found. It is of fundamental importance that the assets “unfrozen” in this way are returned to the Treasury in net rubles. It remains to link this mechanism with the channels of cheap lending to industry and science, to track the effectiveness of the use of these loans. Then the defrosting can be considered a completed business. Without turning money into an industrial carriage, it will remain a pumpkin. And it does not matter who will choke her. Local oligarchs or their foreign feudal lords. By the way, there is another source of collateral for which you can safely issue. These are frozen funds of foreigners in Russia, according to various estimates, they amount to about $312 billion. There are still a lot of questions for the Central Bank. For example, for last year's anti-record for the export of capital for $ 240 billion. But, at the end of the tunnel, there was a glimpse.

https://realtribune-ru.translate.goog/arestovannye-zolotovaljutnye-rezervy-chastichno-obnaruzhilis-v-rossii?utm_source=finobzor.ru&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en

Less than in the US and Europe: annual inflation in Russia fell below 3.3%, by Vladimir Tsegoev, Ksenia Chemodanova for Rtrussia. 04.05.2023.

Annual inflation in Russia for the first time since the summer of 2020 slowed to 3.29%. The value turned out to be not only below the authorities' target of 4%, but also less than in the US (5.22%) and the eurozone states (6.9%). The growth rate of consumer prices for goods and services in the Russian Federation is declining after a rush jump last spring. At that time, American and European sanctions led to a rise in the price of a number of products within the country. However, according to experts, the anti-crisis measures of the government and the Central Bank helped to stabilize the situation. As the Russian leadership expects, against the backdrop of further deceleration of inflation, real incomes of citizens should return to growth this year.

The annual inflation rate in Russia for the first time in the past few years fell below the authorities' target of 4%. This is evidenced by the weekly report of the Ministry of Economic Development published on Wednesday, April 5.

According to the department, over the past 12 months, consumer prices for goods and services in the country have increased by an average of 3.29%. The last time such low annual inflation could be observed was in the summer of 2020.

Food prices in Russia rose by an average of 2.33% over the year. The price of cucumbers (by 23.3%), onions (by 16.64%), powdered milk formulas (by 10.69%) and canned meat (by 10.23%) increased the most. At the same time, a number of products, on the contrary, have seriously fallen in price. We are talking, for example, about cabbage (prices decreased by 72.51%), potatoes (-37.9%), carrots (-30.76%), buckwheat (-28.05%), sugar (-25.2 %) and chicken meat (-7.9%).

In turn, the cost of non-food products increased by an average of 0.09%. The most noticeably more expensive cars: Russian - by 1.53%, foreign - by 3.45%. Meanwhile, for example, medicines rose in price by only 1.15%, gasoline - by 0.05%, and building materials fell in price by 8.79%.

In general, inflation in Russia has been continuously slowing down for the eighth week in a row. This is largely due to the high base of last year, says Nikita Maslennikov, head of the Finance and Economics department at the Institute of Contemporary Development.

“In the spring of 2022, our inflation was significantly higher than now. Let me remind you that at that moment the indicator rose to double-digit values. The price surge was associated with the economic shock caused by large-scale sanctions. Today, due to such a high base last year, we have a significant slowdown in inflation, ”the source explained to RT.

It should be noted that if in February 2022 the growth of consumer prices in Russia amounted to 9.15% in annual terms, then in March the value rose to 16.69%, and in April it reached 17.83% - the maximum level for the last 20 years. The reason was the emotional reaction of the financial market and ordinary citizens to the actions of the West.

Due to a number of economic restrictions by unfriendly countries, the ruble at the beginning of last spring fell to a record low against other currencies. At the same time, the supply of certain types of foreign products to the country stopped, and the Russians began to massively buy food and goods. All this together provoked a rush in prices.

However, already in May, against the backdrop of anti-crisis decisions by the government and the Central Bank, the easing of consumer panic and the stabilization of the situation on the foreign exchange market, inflation dropped to 17.1%. In the future, the indicator continued to decline and, according to the results of the entire 2022, amounted to 11.94%.

“Prices are slowing down not only because of the high base effect, but also due to the measures of the authorities. For example, the Central Bank influences inflation with its monetary policy, managing rates and limiting inflationary expectations. Thanks to the activation of parallel imports and the stimulation of domestic production, after the departure of a number of foreign companies, our consumer market is being filled. A gradual increase in the mass of commodities limits the possibility of increasing prices, ”Vladimir Kovalev, an analyst at TeleTrade, told RT.

According to the assessment of the country's leadership, consumer price growth in Russia will continue to slow down in the near future. At the same time, it is curious that the inflation rate in the country today turned out to be even lower than in those states that initially imposed sanctions against Moscow.

So, for example, according to preliminary estimates of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, in March, annual inflation in the United States amounted to 5.22%. At the same time, according to the calculations of the statistical service of the EU, in the eurozone consumer prices over the past 12 months have increased by an average of 6.9%. Moreover, for example, in France and Germany - the largest economies in Europe - the value reached 6.6 and 7.8%, respectively, and in the Baltic countries the figure exceeded 15%.

In favor of income

According to Vladimir Kovalev, consumer behavior of people is also exerting a certain pressure on inflation in Russia. So, lately, citizens have shown a tendency to save money, the specialist noted.

However, according to the analyst, in the future, consumer demand in the country should begin to gradually recover. This, together with the expected increase in budget spending, may lead to some acceleration of inflation in the second half of the year.

According to the forecast of the Central Bank, according to the results of the entire 2023, the growth of consumer prices in annual terms may amount to 5-7%. However, already in 2024, the indicator should again return to the target of 4%, the Central Bank expects.

“These parameters of the overall decline in inflation in general are a significant positive for the Russian economy. A slowdown in price growth helps to reduce uncertainty in the economy and consumption, helps to increase investment and production, improve their efficiency, and also has a positive effect on real incomes of the population and business,” Kovalev noted.

According to Rosstat, in 2022, in the context of increased inflation, the real incomes of Russians decreased by an average of 1%. At the same time, according to President Vladimir Putin, already in 2023, the figure should go into plus.

“This year, we still expect changes for the better... We think that real wages in the country as a whole should grow by about 3-5%, and real disposable incomes of the population - by about 2- 3%. Why am I talking about this? Because our inflation is completely different,” Putin stressed.

https://russian.rt.com/business/article/1132409-rossiya-inflyaciya-tormozhenie

except EU is still purchasing Russian oil, but by third accounts. Speculated that they are purchasing roughly same amount give or take.

I just dont think there is much in the way to calculate it though since a lot of it is hush.

Printing rubles is perfectly fine.
Keep in mind that they incorporated some 8 mln new citizens and a huge part of ex Ukr economy that needs to be covered with the money supply.
That is what makes a difference.
For Russia, the monetary base increase is covered with true economic expansion.
There will be an extensive rebuilding project carried out along the entire new territories that will give a giant momentum to the whole economy.

Quick question.

What is the true size of Russia's economy? When Russian GDP is converted to USD it becomes roughly $2 Trillion. But In Rubles its around RUB140 Trillion. What is the true size or meeting point for both figures? Because this implies that if the Ruble gets stronger then Russias economy which might not be true. So I imagine if the Ruble traded 7:1 with the dollar it would increase Russia's dollar GDP by 10x even if no economic activity implying this took place. So what is the real figure then irrespective of exchange rates?

More blowback

Spriter
@Spriter99880
·
3h
Due to the banking crisis in the US, Sweden's pension fund lost $2 billion.  Magnus Billing, CEO of Sweden's largest pension fund, Alecta, reassures clients that the company is resilient despite a failed US investment that wiped out $2 billion in pension savings.

Quite likely the oil is getting mixed. You mix 51% of whatever with 49% Russian oil, and it becomes non-Russian oil.

We are talking about the west here... their morality is as flexible as any other feature of their culture... 99% Russian oil mixed with one percent anyone elses oil is no longer Russian oil and is acceptable... because they want the oil.

As for the diesel and gasoline they are likely being smuggled with false papers by intermediaries.

I doubt any border security in the west will seize a batch of any type of fuel or energy and say it is illegal and destroy it like they would contraband food or drugs.

Due to the banking crisis in the US, Sweden's pension fund lost $2 billion.  Magnus Billing, CEO of Sweden's largest pension fund, Alecta, reassures clients that the company is resilient despite a failed US investment that wiped out $2 billion in pension savings.

Losing 2 billion from a pension fund at a time of serious inflation and just after covid and now funding Kiev and trying to join HATO... this is going to have some serious effects on their economy...

The new future for Europe is expensive energy... which will punish producers and production in energy intensive areas of industry and production.

And what he didn't say in the video is that Europe did this to themselves. Russia was happy with long term energy contracts with cheap gas supplies...

The PPP needs to be factored in which presently is around 2.5 so the $2 Trillion = $5 Trillion in comparison to US$

There is quite an interesting and alternative approach that starts to float along.
It is kinda same as the "Big Mack Index" - people used to make laugh at it until proved multiple times that holds just fine. Much better than more serious and noble indexes ...
It is called Kardashov scale, and when first revealed in 1964, it was a clear tool to measure the size of entire civilization in a cosmic scale.
But six decades later, the theory was much improved and expanded, and in my humble opinion can be considered as an alternative approach to confirm a real size of economy/potential. No matter what we call that.
So if we will take the energy consumption as a base, we can make the following :
Russia consumes approx. 5t of oil alternative fuel per capita, per year.
The US uses approx. 7t.
So we have 7x340 and 5x145, making 2380 vs. 725. Russian economy is slightly less than 1/3 of the US one.
A short check :
For China, that would be 2.5x1426, so 3565.
For Germany, 3.85x85. so 327.
Sure the model is not perfect, and strikes by multiple external and internal factors, yet it can be considered as a good mental training.

GDP per capita by PPP.

Productive sector - excluding services:

US = $12,400
Germany = $16,500
France = $9,500
EU = $7,600

Russia = $10,700
China = $8,500
India =$2,500

China's PPP is well above the EU average.

And Russia's is only about 15% below the US.

Tweet from Pepe Escobar