Russia and economic war by the west

The Duran is saying that the Russian reserves stolen by the west are not $300 Billion but closer to $150 Billion.

The Duran says that the Russians let everyone believe that it was $300 Billion in reserves stolen but it was in fact $150 Billion($100 Billion in the US and $30 Billion - $50 Billion in EU.)

If this is true, than Russia outplayed the west here.

BRICS + Saudi-Arabia and Argentina makes 7 countries. Call it G-7.

BRICSSA

Still manageable

ASS BRIC, because G7 would be shitting bricks when faced with their new nemesis.

Mishustin: inflation in Russia reached its lowest level since 1999 in 20 days of May, 27.05.2022.

MOSCOW, May 27 - RIA Novosti. At the end of May, deflation was recorded in Russia, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said, speaking to the superfinalists of the Leaders of Russia competition on Friday.

"According to the latest data, inflation has practically stopped. In the first 20 days of May, it reached its lowest level since 1999, we looked with our analysts. And deflation has already been recorded over the last week," he said.

During his speech, the head of government said that by the beginning of the month, consumption in the country had decreased - turnover through the cash register system decreased by almost ten percent in annual terms, while in the last week of May the decline was reduced to three percent.

"We expect that today the president's initiative to increase the minimum wage, the living wage, social benefits, including the indexation of pensions, will help rectify the situation with consumer demand in the near future, along with the measures that have been taken: lending programs, deferral of insurance premiums," he said. Mishustin.

According to him, this step will make it possible to compensate for the rise in prices and support demand.

Western countries adopted several packages of restrictions against Russia after the start of a special operation to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine . Most of them concerned the banking sector and the supply of high-tech products. In addition, some brands announced the termination of work in Russia.

Moscow called such steps an economic war, noting that it was ready for such a scenario. The Central Bank is taking measures to stabilize the situation on the foreign exchange market, thanks to which the ruble has significantly strengthened against the dollar and the euro, breaking five-year highs. Russia also transferred payments for gas supplies to unfriendly countries into rubles. Another step to combat the impact of Western sanctions was the plan prepared by the government, which includes about a hundred initiatives. The amount of its funding will be about a trillion rubles.

https://ria.ru/20220527/pravitelstvo-1791135875.html

Russia has a way to avoid default without a US license. The point is in one paragraph of bond documentation.

The US decision not to renew the license, which allowed the servicing of Russian government bonds in dollars, increased the risk of default on these securities. However, the terms of the issues leave Russia a chance to avoid such a scenario, RBC found out.

After this week the US authorities did not renew an expired license that allowed the Russian Ministry of Finance to service dollar obligations to foreign investors, Western market participants began counting down to a potential default of Russia on external public debt. The Russian Ministry of Finance has already announced that it will be forced to fulfill these obligations in rubles. International rating agencies have stated that the redenomination of payments (change of payment currency) will be recognized as a default, unless we are talking about several relatively new issues of Eurobonds of the Ministry of Finance, where the option of paying in rubles is built in in case of an objective impossibility of paying in dollars. Russia has more than $30 billion worth of dollar-denominated sovereign bonds circulating on the market.

However, in the documentation of all Russian issues, the condition "Reimbursement in another currency" (Currency Indemnity) is found, and it theoretically opens a way for payments in rubles without grounds to declare a Russian default. It is independent of the other condition “Payment in alternative currencies” (Alternative Payment Currency), which is contained in securities issued since 2018, and allows legal payments in rubles if, for example, sanctions prevent payment in the original currency.

The Currency Indemnity clause (for example, in this issue of dollar bonds - pdf ) suggests that if Russia pays the holder in a currency other than the dollar (“as a result of a court decision, order of a court of any jurisdiction or any other decision”), then the payment obligation will be considered fulfilled if the investor is able to exchange the received amount of another currency for dollars in the amount due on the next possible day. If during the conversion the amount in dollars is less than due, the Russian Federation is obliged to compensate this shortage to the holder, as well as to compensate him for all transaction costs.

Why Russia might try to use this clause

This provision refers to “judicial” decisions, but in principle it is broad enough for Russia to prove the absence of a default if foreign holders of its securities really can exchange the received rubles for dollars, Maximilian Hess, head of the political risk department of the consulting company Hawthorn Advisors, told RBC. This “tricky” condition does indeed potentially allow Russia to meet its bond obligations even through ruble payments, confirms Mitu Gulati, professor at the University of Virginia School of Law and sovereign debt researcher.

On May 25, the Ministry of Finance of Russia made it clear that ruble payments to non-residents could potentially be converted “into the original currency of the obligation through NBCO JSC National Settlement Depository as a paying agent.” Any non-residents (including from unfriendly jurisdictions) can theoretically obtain permission from a special subcommittee of the Ministry of Finance to convert rubles into dollars, and therefore, to withdraw them abroad, RBC was confirmed in the Ministry of Finance. Russia can still find some "sophisticated" ways to pay through non-sanctioned institutions, Rachel Zimba, founder of the consulting company Ziemba Insights, admits, and NSD is not under US sanctions, and therefore can service dollar transactions.

Without a US license, American investors (who are presumably a minority) are not allowed to conduct transactions with the Russian Ministry of Finance, that is, with the new payment method, they will not be able to do anything with the rubles received. But non-US investors (who are the majority) could in theory receive rubles and exchange them for dollars through NSD, in which case they would have no reason to declare a default.

However, Hess believes that the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA, regulates payments of financial instruments that insure investors against issuer defaults) or credit rating agencies will still recognize a Russian default if the Ministry of Finance makes payments to non-residents in rubles, because “there are problems with convertibility ruble.

RBC sent a request to the press service of the Ministry of Finance regarding the potential use of the Currency Indemnity clause or alternative ways of fulfilling obligations and received a response: "The Ministry of Finance proceeds from the maximum observance of the rights of investors."

Other options


The next payments on Eurobonds of the Ministry of Finance are scheduled for June 23 (dollar bonds with the option of alternative payment in euros, pounds sterling or Swiss francs) and then on June 24 (dollar bonds without currency alternatives). The first set a grace period during which you can still pay without default - 30 days, the second - 15 days. But default is not automatically declared: it is necessary that at least 25% of issue holders declare it. If this happens, holders of the remaining issues may submit them for early redemption (“cross default”).

The Ministry of Finance previously tested the method of actually fulfilling obligations under eurobonds in rubles (with the dollar as the original currency) through the procedure for early redemption of securities at a price of 100% of the face value. Since the offer is voluntary, there can be no default due to the redemption of securities in rubles, Hess told RBC. In addition, the redemption of securities is not legally considered redemption, so it can be carried out on any terms. However, at the end of March, non-residents almost did not present papers for early redemption for rubles, because they had no guarantees that they would be able to exchange them for dollars and withdraw them from Russia.

The terms of Russian sovereign Eurobonds also provide for the possibility of changing the issue currency, however, for this, the holders, who account for 75% of the issue, must vote for such a change.

Also, Russia may retain the possibility of debt payments in euros to non-US holders. On May 4, the European Commission reported that European sanctions do not prohibit the Russian government from servicing Eurobonds issued before March 9. In addition, on April 1, the UK government allowed the use of British financial infrastructure to make payments on sovereign debt until at least June 30.

https://www.rbc.ru/economics/27/05/2022/628f7a0a9a7947c031c3f300

The recent reverse in Russian inflation is mainly due to the strengthening of the ruble against the dollar, not so much because of less costly imports, but because of the internal pricing of domestic products which mirror on international commodities' prices settled in dollars. An example of this are wholesale domestic prices of wheat-derived products, all more or less depending on Chicago. With the introduction of wheat price index at Mosbirzha in rubles, this vicious trend will tend to end.

So the cunning Washington plan to force a "default" by Russia by preventing its payments to US investors is all about directing
those investors to seize other assets (property, etc.) that are associated with Russia. This way the US can "legalize" the theft
of Russian reserves, etc.

Kiko wrote:The recent reverse in Russian inflation is mainly due to the strengthening of the ruble against the dollar, not so much because of less costly imports, but because of the internal pricing of domestic products which mirror on international commodities' prices settled in dollars. An example of this are wholesale domestic prices of wheat-derived products, all more or less depending on Chicago. With the introduction of wheat price index at Mosbirzha in rubles, this vicious trend will tend to end.

Actually, there has been a massive reduction in imports from the NATzO and allied west. This has suppressed some of the inflation all by itself.
Russia was importing inflation together with foreign goods and services.

The forex rate of the ruble is following and not leading the change in the import dynamics. A stronger ruble would increase imports under
normal conditions.

The grain crisis is being engineered by the west in order to have a tool to blackmail countries around the world who dare to
not participate in the US-led lynch mob attacking Russia.

Hole wrote:BRICS + Saudi-Arabia and Argentina makes 7 countries.  Call it G-7.

Wouldn't the B-7 make more sense?

Haha, this is quite funny. And telling
https://t.me/minvostok/284

Actually popped up on my Telegram from a random channel I'm subscribed to, that ostensibly has very little to do with East-West relations or politics really

Basically the Chinese border city of Heihe, facing the Russian city of Blagoveschensk opposite across the Amur river - projected up a huge slogan, "Russia we are with you"

So while the West is making it clear to Russia that it wants it dead and buried, the East is encouraging Russia and showing that there's another world that is on its side, or at least is open to building constructive relations

To the non-Western powers of the world, Russia throwing down the gauntlet to the bullying Americans and the moralizing Europeans is quite a boon really. It increases their own bargaining power. See India. Provided that is that they have the internal stability and resistant power structure to prevent regime-change attempts. See Pakistan.

sepheronx wrote:

flamming_python wrote:Haha, this is quite funny. And telling
https://t.me/minvostok/284

Actually popped up on my Telegram from a random channel I'm subscribed to, that ostensibly has very little to do with East-West relations or politics really

Basically the Chinese border city of Heihe, facing the Russian city of Blagoveschensk opposite across the Amur river - projected up a huge slogan, "Russia we are with you"

So while the West is making it clear to Russia that it wants it dead and buried, the East is encouraging Russia and showing that there's another world that is on its side, or at least is open to building constructive relations

To the non-Western powers of the world, Russia throwing down the gauntlet to the bullying Americans and the moralizing Europeans is quite a boon really. It increases their own bargaining power. See India. Provided that is that they have the internal stability and resistant power structure to prevent regime-change attempts. See Pakistan.

Hey mate, I got a question that I posed on the Ukrainian war thread as its read the most but...

Are you Russians still able to buy electronics via aliexpress?

I was looking up GPU'S and saw obviously rebadged rtx 3070's (possibly mobile units reconfigured into desktop variants) with a few Russians posting reviews as late as a few weeks ago.

So I'm assuming you guys can still order those devices through them and using union pay, right?

Dude, instead of asking stupid questions all over the forum, you could go to any Russian search engine (for example, Yandex), and write there "buy RTX 3070 with delivery". It would take about 30 seconds, you know.
Russia is not fucking Somalia. This is a developed state, where MUCH things exceeds the average European level.
Constant stupid questions are annoying.

Following the path of Orban, but a bit more timidly

Reuters
@Reuters
·
4h
Serbia's Vucic says he agreed a three-year gas supply contract with Putin

https://www.stalkerzone.org/the-end-of-the-comprador-bourgeoisie/