They were talking about kicking Russia out of swift for the last 15 years and Russia had to invade the Ukraine before they did it...
Lots of articles around just means lots of thinktanks and CIA owned "reporters" doing their jobs talking shit.
The idea that Russia could shrug off ties with the west because the west never really allowed them to become fully integrated into the international system is reasonable, but because of the hostile relationship with the US most of the ties were with Europe and most existed because the west benefitted enormously... getting cheap energy helped Germany be an industrial world power, and its chemicals industries rely on gas to the point of addiction... when the cuts get deeper and deeper and Russia starts to get alternative customers it will result in Russian sanctions can only seriously hurt Europe.
In a sense they have cancelled Christmas dinner and weekly breaks at the local cafe and other minor things, but the west relies on energy in the way a tennant relies on their land lord to provide shelter for which they pay money... Russia has been keeping the rent super cheap which means the Europeans can live more comfortably because they can spend that extra money on other things that are luxuries, but if Russia charges market rents or you are out or just says you are out because we have other customers who will pay the same rent but are not as much trouble as you are then their little world is going to change radically for the worse.
The west has a lot more ties with China and vice versa but China has production and internal population big enough that even if no one else buys their stuff they will have an internal market to keep what they need working going while they find other markets... they might need to build their own shipping fleet to carry it and a navy to protect their interests... they are already doing that really...
The west is wealthy but wealthy people are not generous... they will buy in bulk and demand discounts for their business so you end up making rather less money from their purchases compared with the poor customer who wait for specials and buy when they can afford.
Russia and China and the rest of the BRICSA countries can work with the rest of the world to make the rest of the world a better place with growth and development and without bombing and sanctions to "isolate and contain"... which is western speak for economic warfare to cripple a country which always hurts the poor and the people rather than the leadership that has somehow upset the west.
The west is going to cripple itself pulling out of China... the Chinese government could just nationalise foreign own factories and businesses, or do as Russia is doing... buy them up supercheap as the foreign companies flee... China owns land all round the world including lots of farms here in New Zealand... it would be a very mess situation and might turn very ugly...
The difference between the split of Russia and the west and China and the West is like comparing a hesitent couple that barely held hands being forced apart by Uncle Sam... the creepy old Uncle of the bride, with Siamese twins whose torsos are joined and internal organs shared... there needs to be serious surgury and both are going to bleed... but it is necessary because one has gone septic.
I've been hearing a lot about 30 Usd per barrel, but also 40 Usd. Never heard about 70 Usd before. But 70 Usd sounds about right. Enough to cripple oil revenues, but also enough to keep production going.
Russia was still making profits at $40 per barrel... $70 per barrel would be ideal for them because they don't want the product to be so expensive that their customers stop using their cars or central heating... a moderate price and large volume makes them the best profits and $70 to $80 would be an ideal price range for them.
The discounts they are talking about giving to India and China of 30% is 30% off $100 to $120 dollars a barrel, so the Indians and Chinese are paying $80 to $90 dollars a barrel with the discount which encourages them to buy more than they need because in a market where the retail price is over $100 any oil they don't need they can easily sell for a good profit anyway, but Russia, who was making a profit at $40 per barrel is still making a huge profit... their costs have not changed... just their profit margin.
Considering this is coming from EU, i won't take it too seriously. Europe's economic strength is not what it used to be and it doesn't look like it will get better any time soon.
Yes, the EUs genius plan to screw the Russians was to build large gas storage sites in Europe and then buy extra gas in the summer that they can use in the winter when the gas is expensive and save money.
Most of the gas storage sites they let the Russians build so they own them, but the Russians aren't stupid and have only been supplying gas that the EU has ordered and paid for so they haven't filled their storage sites in the EU.... they have been filling gas storage sites in Russia instead.
The EU expected to cheat the Russians and they expected the Russians to build the storage sites and they would seize them and use them when they needed them... they thought they could get cheaper gas by not having long term contracts and instead buying gas in auctions... but again Russia isn't that stupid... they don't have to sell for prices that are too low... and with no long term contracts they are not obliged to continue pumping gas filling their own storage tanks that the EU countries could steal.
The result of their scheming and plans was to more than quadruple gas prices from the cheapest source on the planet....
EU, you don't have to be genius to notice that. Basically, they are living on borrowed time.
I didn't hear US saying anything, so i will be very skeptical. Europe has been militarily and politically a midget even 20 years ago, and now it is even less so.
If the EU uses its position as major customer of Russian gas to close out other customers from Russia then Russia would have to say that the EU is doing everything it can to end its use of gas so long term there is no future for gas sales there even though coal fired power stations were being closed so the gas sales were expected to increase dramatically, but Russia can just cut their losses and find other customers and if the EU threatens sanctions on those other customers then Russia can just say they wont supply gas to any country that threatens sanctions on their other customers...
The EU uses gas for more than just heating and electricity generation... their chemical industries also use large amounts of it too in a variety of situations and purposes... a lot of their glass blowing industry uses gas because it was so cheap yet is easier to control the temperature than with coal or wood fired furnaces...
Europe isn't a monopsony client of Russian energy, and energy like oil can be easily transported elsewhere.
Ironically the shipped oil deliveries are the ones that were banned by the EU which are the easiest to send on to other customers... the piped oil is cheaper and more convenient and less easy to give away to support nazis and crazies in Ukraine and Washington respectively.
Just like Europe can switch suppliers, so can Russia switch customers.
The core difference is that Europe bought Russian gas because it was the cheapest... customers around the world could only dream of getting gas that cheap... till now. And the simple and obvious result is that Europe are going to have to pay more for their gas from now on... and Russia will likely get more money for the gas they sell to other countries.
Europe really showed Russia...
Russia is the natural replacement for either Australia or Canada. As the country with the largest landmass on Earth, Russia also has the richest deposits of basically every single natural resource. And what Russia doesn't have, it is because they never bothered prospecting and developing the resource.
And the North Sea Route, the rail links the Russians have been expanding and air travel from Russia to China and back cannot be interfered with by any other country... ironic because those links were developed to make trade between the EU and Asia cheaper... and it still will but I doubt the EU will accept stuff via train that has travelled across Russia because they are idiots...
It looks like the article has been written by an Ukr though, so granted making sense is not necessarily the priority.
It is clutching at straws trying to justify another sanction idea where they can sanction other countries to try to isolate Russia... even if they could get that to work it is more likely to isolate the west but the west thinks they are the centre of the universe and therefore isolating the west is not possible or a consideration.
If the West doesn't want to buy Russian oil for the price its sold at, then that's their call and always has been. Russia can no more force them to buy their oil than any retailer on the high street can force a window-shopper to make an actual purchase.
They don't buy Russian oil or Russian gas as a charity to help out Russia... they buy it because it is super cheap... giving up that cheap energy and letting rival countries buy that cheap energy is suicide of the obvious kind and is being driven from the US, but it will be the EU that is damaged while teh US will declare Russian oil and Russian Uranium fuel rods as strategically critical and something that cannot be touched by sanctions... which is not to say Russia wont impose their own sanctions on such sales... which would be hilarious.
Dude have you seen how that has worked until now? Do you think we are all retards? GTFO
If something someone says is obviously wrong then it should be easy to explain why... no need for shooting the messenger, though messengers need to realise if you keep posting western propaganda the some members will be sick of reading something they come here to get away from so Caviat Emptor (be wary of buyer) or that should be Cavere nuntius (be wary of messenger).
Already the Saudis and Algerians told the EU to f off with increase oil production.
Most oil producing nations have suffered due to western energy manipulations that were intended to damage Russia and Venezuela... they are now making hay while the sun shines and they won't want to do any rain dances just to please the west.
Just because they will do this or that, doesn't mean it works. And judging by previous demands, nothing they did work.
Based on the wests history I would say go ahead and try it... odds are it will backfire and push the rest of the world together against the west faster.
That's why hitting with sanctions China or India would economically kill EU and US. Dependence is mutual. Neither EU nor US can live without products services form both countries without immediate industrial collapse. Perhaps there will be some political struggle but the more west pushes the faster resistance will grow (rejecting USD/EU for commerce, own banking/trade or social/sport organizations, political aliances). In short the more west keeps pressing the weaker it gets.
And that is key... the west has created the Russia today that has technology and production and energy and resources and food of its own and they pushed them away... if they push on the rest of the world they have the dilemma that if they pushed them away in the past there was no real alternative to the west so those isolated countries suffered economically, but with the rise of Russia and China and therefore also the potential rise of India and Brazil and South Africa, then countries pushed away from the west are actually getting released from the thumb of control the west used to hold them down... countries like India and Algeria and Argentina and Chile and countries around Asia and Africa and Central and South America could grow and develop and even thrive without the west kicking in their straw houses all the time with wars and petty regional conflicts they encourage or create.
Even Turkey buys gas or nuclear power plants, S-400 from Russia. any sanctions yet?
Well Turkey did get kicked out of the F-35 programme but that will likely a blessing in disguise...
More importantly the US buys Russian gas and Russian oil and also Russian Uranium for their nuclear power stations... what EU sanctions are being put on the US?
In order for sanctions to come at full effect, they must be applied to third countries that are helping out Russia bypass those sanctions
They are not bypassing sanctions. They already sell oil and gas and coal and Uranium to countries around the world, if the EU does not want to buy any of those things from Russia that is fine... they are fully entitled to do that... cancel your orders, put cement in the pipes.
What they don't have the right to do is impose their own sanctions on countries that continue to buy from Russia.
The enormous hipocracy is that the EU intends to keep on buying Russian gas and Russian oil but is threatening to impose sanctions on other countries that buy Russian gas and Russian oil.
The EU buys Russian energy because they NEED it... if the EU threatens one of Russias customer countries Russia can respond simply by stopping all sales of oil and gas to the EU till they remove their sanctions... problem is solved no matter what the EU does... if they ditch the sanctions they look weak, and if they stop buying Russian energy they will actually become very weak economically and militarily... politically they always were weak... after the show only the fool goes back stage to complain to the ventriliquists dummy that some of the jokes he told were offensive... you talk to washington not brussels... talking to brussels is a courtesy for show and egos in the west but is a total waste of time as the minsk agreements showed.
We all can assume this as a fact now, and not as an opinion.
Why? Because western think tanks think it is a good idea?
The solutions to such a move are obvious and very very effective... it would be a very stupid thing to do... so they might do it... but only because it wont effect the US... there is no way the US will stop purchases and there is no way the EU will sanction the US in this... so ultimately it will only the EU will suffer by damaging ties with third party countries and losing cheap energy from Russia... so of course it is probably an idea that came from the US.
The cap on oil or gas, would be a smart way to do it regarding raw materials. Most argue that it just can't be enforced upon India or China. That they will never accept such cap. We'll see how it will work out, if ever implemented.
If they are paying in Rubles of Yuan or Indian currency how will the west know what they are paying... they can't use SWIFT so they will have no idea.
Regarding high tech, a third party enforced ban, would be way more diffiult to implement. There can be a ton of companys operating in that environment, and trying to bypass sanctions.
A western company could simply sell its technology to a company operating in Russia... the way Thales did legally with Thermal Imaging technology... Russia has plenty of state of the art technology... in some areas they lack the ability or capacity to mass produce it in commercial volumes... but then western imports from already set up production infrastructure that already serves the rest of the world would make the profit potential so low it would be too risky.
With import bans the market becomes much bigger and open... much like imports of EU food led to a massive investment in food production in Russia where the market was mostly theirs. Lots fo EU countries tried to bypass the ban by relabelling their products as made in non EU countries, but a massive Russian food production capacity was created that now earns more in exports than military equipment.
Anway, my main point, is that a country can not be dependend on others in order to survive (even more to thrive) on the complex chain of manufacturing that we currently have globally. Being dependend on India or China, ain't an option. No matter how friendly the Russia regime sees them.
Russia is rejecting the west, or more precisely is following their own interests protecting themselves in Ukraine knowing that the West will cut all ties with them for doing that... Russia had no real choice.
Russia isn't going to just survive with trade with China and India... they are looking to the rest of the world... BRICSA will expand and grow and develop... South Africa is a country with problems but with enormous potential... you could say the same about Brazil and India... Russia and China have shown they can say no to the west and still grow and develop to the point where both are considered more dangerous in the west than ISIS... to most Russians that probably sounds a bit offensive but essentially it means Russia can destroy the western world as we know it... something ISIS couldn't manage.
Russia and China can destroy the west not just with nukes but also by being an alternative path forward in terms of civlisation and development... they are not western and are no longer trying to be... and that scares the west... look at how many developed cultures they have destroyed...