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    Russia and economic war by the west

    Sujoy
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    Post  Sujoy Fri May 13, 2022 7:57 am

    Indian businesses take UAE route for Russian payments


    Cargo movements between India & Russia and associated trade payments are being routed through outfits and banks in Dubai in transactions that come across like regular bilateral trade between India and UAE.

    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/banking/finance/indian-businesses-take-uae-route-for-russian-payments/articleshow/91528742.cms

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    TMA1
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    Post  TMA1 Fri May 13, 2022 8:12 am

    Nice. Good to see asian nations resisting the coercion of the west. Our leaders are mad in their ideological delusion.

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    rigoletto
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    Post  rigoletto Fri May 13, 2022 8:13 am

    GarryB wrote:So what you are saying is that Poland can refuse to take on debt responsibility but Russia cannot?

    You misread or misinterpreted what I said. When I said «dump» I meant dump the whole Ukrainian debt, and not a part of it. It would need to be done while Russia still have de facto control of the whole Ukraine in order to impose it. Preferentially inside the terms of the (supposed) unconditional surrender to give no grounds to talks.

    If Poland take over Galicia before Russia doing so, later Poland would have to assume some part of the Ukrainian debt for sure[1], but given the fact Russia (supposedly) took over almost the entire country,[2] including the capital, it would be hard (read impossible) to convince anyone (in any terms) western Ukraine was the major beneficiary of that money[3], what would be necessary to somehow force Poland to assume the larger part of it.

    I mean, it would be completely different in the case of Crimea (in the current state of affairs). For starters, Ukraine never recognized it, what would be mandatory to allow UA to demand Russia to pay anything in regards to their debt.

    But let pretend it happened. It would be easy to prove Crimea just didn't benefit from that money at all but actually had been drained by Ukraine the whole time it was in their hands.

    Russia could obviously NOT ask for any compensation in favor of Crimea because it was legally under Ukraine jurisdiction (before the independence/annexation), but would not have to pay anything in regards to Ukrainian debt because Crimea didn't benefit of that money at all, and so Russia didn't benefit either when she took Crimea.

    Theoretically, Russia could demand some assets, but seriously?

    [1] probably decades of discussions and annoyances.
    [2] or ever if central Ukraine is still independent, this is not on Poland hands anyway.
    [3] just have a look on western Ukraine level of development.

    [EDIT]

    Something like this.

    1 - move the capital to Lviv or wherever place in western Ukraine (this is not really necessary but a plus);
    2 - give independence to Novorossia, and state they leave without any debt (and assets);
    3 - give independence to central Ukraine (lets call it Kievan Rus), and state they leave without any debt (and assets);
    4 - to make everything clear, somehow state that western Ukraine is the «old Ukraine» and is assuming the whole Ukrainian debt (and is so retaining the assets);
    5 - the representatives of the now independent republics also sign the document to reinforce the whole thing.


    Last edited by rigoletto on Fri May 13, 2022 8:37 am; edited 2 times in total
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Fri May 13, 2022 8:31 am

    Get bent, Russia isn't gonna oblige to international (western created) structure on debt when it was written for the benefactors of the west.  Reason India couldn't sue is because they already demanded multiple times and the brits told them to go to hell.  I guess also India should also sue the brits for the Bengal starvation that killed millions during WW2. Or is it because it was a colony they refuse the rights entirely?

    I wouldn't bother keeping that law degree you have, seems rather useless.

    We will see what happens in the end but Russia won't pay them a dime.  As Garry says, you state Russia holds all responsibility but Poland wouldn't. I would say you are wrong and the Europeans are already siphoning the 300B in Russian reserves to Ukraine.

    So there you go, debt paid.

    You provide nothing of value to this thread.

    You should spend time looking up the family(s) who sued the US government for unpaid debt during the Civil War. They won the case, but never got the money as the government refused.

    Edit: I'm gonna add more because I know I'm right on this.  The Russians won't bother listening to demands from the west to pay back ukraines debt simply because they don't need them but the west needs Russia and Ukraine for its resources. FDI was already abysmally low and Russia isn't interested in them anymore. After the war, the demands will be made from Russia, not the west.  As stated we are entering a new era and US isn't paying for Iraqs debts. Or Afghanistans debts, or any other debts of other nations they occupy.  Actually, those nations lost their rights entirely and the US demands they pay them for those loss of rights.

    International law was written in the west.  Why do you think that is?  Your education teaches you a vary narrow viewpoint of only thay particular law structure crayed by those institutions that benefit then.  BYW, you say it's a long process.  OK. Then look at the outright theft of Iran's gold and resource which still isn't fully paid back.  Let's wait for that resolution before saying Russia will have to pay back.  Lol.

    We live in a whole new Brave new world.

    Edit 2: since we are debating on assumptions rather than actual facts laid out cause we don't even know the final outcomes yet, I will refrain from talking about this nonsense further. Instead, we will stick to real hard facts of economic development.

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    rigoletto
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    Post  rigoletto Fri May 13, 2022 9:40 am

    sepheronx wrote:Get bent, Russia isn't gonna oblige to international (western created) structure on debt when it was written for the benefactors of the west.

    In case of Gary it was clear for me he misread what I have said, and so I explained it. Since you answered after that and is bringing the subject related with how debt structured, which has absolutely nothing to do with the actual subject I will explain in more lay terms...

    The Ukrainian debt is Ukrainian debt, period. The west cannot wake up tomorrow and define the Ukrainian debt is not Ukrainian anymore but Indian because this is their system and they decided so. If you think this is how things work, please look for a doctor. There is no way a creditor can simple move the debt from one debtor to another person just because he wants, the another person need to at least accept it.

    As I said countries don't die or cease to exist,[1] they transform in another country or two several ones. In the later scenarios there are principles to deal with international debt and assets. It can be done using several bases: where the money was spent; the size of the new territories in relation to the total debt/assets; demographics; a mix of some or all; and go on.

    The final division will be done either by negotiations or by a International Tribunal, depending of the parts. But there is literally nothing forbidding one part to assume all debt alone and yet giving up all assets at the same. The creditors have absolutely nothing to do with it, no say at all, unless they decide to default.

    If Ukraine[2] formally give independence to some of its territories, and decide to retain the whole debt for itself, there is absolutely no sane way to say the debt also belongs to the independent republics.

    That said, since Ukraine would supposedly be forced into an unconditional surrender, the document can (automatically, builtin) impose to Ukraine exactly the scenario where it retain all debt while giving independence to several of its territories.

    In this case, with the Ukrainian forced to an unconditional surrender Russia can impose almost literally wherever she want.[3] I thought this is already obvious given the unconditional term in unconditional surrender.

    Now, if the Poles take over western Ukraine before Russia doing so, for starters Poland is now part of the controversy too and Russia would need to convince Poland to also accept these terms or obliterate her to an unconditional surrender too. But then it would hardly be so simple.

    If that happen, the Poles taking over western Ukraine first, the west is likely to formally and quickly recognize that as part of Poland or as independent. And now yes the west could really mess with the hypothetical plan of dumping the whole debt to the western Ukraine.

    Since the creditors are basically the West and they recognized the independence of western Ukraine or as part of Poland, for them this is not part of Ukraine anymore and so they (Poland) can rightfully accept to pay just the part of the debt that somehow belongs to that part of Ukraine. The fact Ukraine then (supposedly) dumped the whole debt in western Ukraine now means nothing (except for those that didn't recognized) because under the International Law to the west that part of Ukraine isn't part of Ukraine anymore but of Poland (or independent).

    In other words, International Law isn't an uniform thing what is illegal/legal for one may not (and often is not) illegal/legal for another. Every country is bound just and only to the acts and responsibilities it was assumed.[3]

    Once a country recognize a territory as independent the rules of the game change for them, but not to others that isn't. Both realities exist in parallel and both are legal.

    In this scenario, with the creditors being generally western there is literally no practical way to tell them the whole debt belongs to western Ukraine because under the law of the residency of the creditors that is a independent country (or part of Poland) and this debt (the whole thing) was not in there when it became independent (or was annexed by Poland). This is why it should be done before that happen!

    [1] unless a huge hole open and the whole territory is dragged in.
    [2] ever if no part of the territory isn't called Ukraine anymore. It doesn't matter
    [3] there very few rules called erga omnes that are valid to everyone but those are about very basic things.

    [EDIT]

    sepheronx wrote:The Russians won't bother listening to demands from the west to pay back ukraines debt simply because they don't need them but the west needs Russia and Ukraine for its resources. FDI was already abysmally low and Russia isn't interested in them anymore. After the war, the demands will be made from Russia, not the west. As stated we are entering a new era and US isn't paying for Iraqs debts. Or Afghanistans debts, or any other debts of other nations they occupy. Actually, those nations lost their rights entirely and the US demands they pay them for those loss of rights.

    The fact Russia is not just paying its debt but also making clear it will do everything to not default[1] clearly indicate you have absolutely no clue of what you are talking about, and somehow living in a fantasy world of Russian exceptionalism. Please, look for a doctor.

    [1] why wait until the end of the war instead of doing it now?
    Kiko
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    Post  Kiko Fri May 13, 2022 12:22 pm

    The ruble is in a unique situation, by Olga Samofalova for VZGLYAD. 13.05.2022.

    The Russian currency has been named the best in the world in recent times - and all because the ruble is significantly strengthening. It would seem that the largest sanctions of the West were supposed to bring down the exchange rate of the Russian national currency, but everything is happening exactly the opposite. Experts call what is happening “an extremely unusual situation,” but how did it develop?

    One of the leading Western news agencies recognized the Russian ruble as the best currency in the world in 2022. Since the beginning of the year, the ruble has grown by 11% and has become the leader in growth among 31 major currencies, Bloomberg calculated. And since March 10, when the dollar and the euro reached their maximum of 121.5 and 132.4 rubles, the exchange rate collapsed on May 5 to two-year lows of 65.3 per dollar and 69.7 per euro. For four trading days in a row, the ruble has been predominantly below 70 rubles per dollar. And by Friday morning, May 13, the ruble again rose sharply against the dollar (up to 62.63 rubles) and against the euro (up to 64.94 rubles).

    It is curious that Turkey and Argentina, which took measures similar to Russia, could not achieve such results: the lira and peso, on the contrary, collapsed on record and could not recover, the agency notes.

    What is the secret of what is happening with the ruble exchange rate? It's all about the actions of the Central Bank and the government of the Russian Federation, which created the conditions for the strengthening of the ruble. Which does not mean that the ruble exchange rate is not real.

    The exchange rate of the ruble began to be called artificial after the government obliged exporters to sell 80% of their foreign exchange earnings on the stock exchange and introduced a rule for selling gas to EU countries for rubles. First, 10, and then 20 European companies began to buy Russian gas for rubles. So far, only two countries have refused - Poland and Bulgaria, which were not major buyers of Russian gas and whose contracts ended this year anyway. All this implies large volumes of conversion of foreign currency into national currency on the stock exchange.

    “However, the exchange rate of the ruble, just as before, takes place on the stock exchange according to all the laws of the economy, depending on the ratio of supply and demand. In this regard, nothing has changed, so the rate remains real and transactions are made on it,” says Vladimir Chernov, an analyst at Freedom Finance Bank.

    “An extremely unusual situation has developed in the domestic foreign exchange market. The exchange rate of the dollar and the euro is formed in a market way, but in an environment where the demand for foreign currency is artificially restrained through a number of restrictive measures,” says Vitaly Manzhos, senior risk manager at Algo Capital. What exactly are we talking about?

    On the one hand, the demand for foreign currency was reduced, and on the other hand, the demand for the ruble sharply increased. “In the most general sense, in March of this year, the scheme for the formation of the ruble exchange rate that had developed over many years took place. First of all, this is due to the abolition of the budget rule. Thus, a very large regular buyer of the currency suddenly left the market,” says Manjos. Also, non-residents were prohibited from selling ruble-denominated assets and speculative demand for foreign currency was frozen (due to a commission of 12%).

    An important role was played by a sharp reduction in imports from the EU and the US, which again sharply reduced demand for dollars and euros. Few people need them, because there is nothing to buy on them. “Not only temporary logistical delays play a role here, but also a reduction in purchasing power within the country. In addition, at the time of the weakening of the ruble, some of the imported goods were purchased and imported at high prices. Now we have a stock of overpriced items that don't sell well. But in order to bring new cheap lots into the country, it is necessary to sell old stocks, ”says Manzhos.

    On the other hand, the demand for the ruble grew due to the demand for the sale of foreign exchange earnings by exporters, the conversion of gas payments into rubles, and a number of other measures. “Since Russia plans to switch to mutual settlements in domestic currencies with China, India, Brazil, Iran and the EAEU countries, the ruble will continue to be needed in large volumes,” says Chernov.

    Finally, the more expensive the ruble, the lower the inflation rate will be, adds Chernov. The weekly increase in prices has already dropped to 0.1 percent, which is already close to the weekly growth rate in line with the inflation target of the Bank of Russia. “In Russia, the decline in inflation was mainly influenced by a sharp increase in the key interest rate of the Central Bank to 20%. It was after the rise in price of all loans that the inflation rate began to decline, but a small merit of the expensive ruble is also present here, ”says Chernov.

    “There is an atypical situation with retail prices in the country, as well as with the ruble exchange rate. At the household level, it is clearly visible that prices for imported consumer goods have begun to return to an adequate level after a sharp March jump. This primarily applies to the highly competitive consumer electronics market. At the same time, the strongly increased prices in grocery stores remain high. This also applies to food products with a small component of imported components in the cost. Apparently, we are dealing with a changed structure of consumer price inflation. Under the new conditions, some groups of goods and services will become relatively more expensive. But some groups of goods at the same time are able to become relatively more affordable, ”says Manzhos.

    Turkey and Argentina did not succeed in this trick with the currency, although the governments of these countries also limited the movement of capital. “However, they did not arrange such sales of foreign currency on the stock exchange, as our exporters are doing now,” Chernov points out.

    But in general, the nature of the crisis in these countries is very different from what is happening in Russia. “To draw a direct parallel between the dynamics of the Russian ruble, the Turkish lira and the Argentine peso (as Bloomberg does) is incorrect. The weakening of the currencies in Turkey and Argentina in recent years was purely due to their economic problems. They were not subject to external sanctions, and they did not impose counter-sanctions. In Russia, the main incentive for a sharp depreciation of the ruble is geopolitics, and not a clear deterioration in the economic situation in the country,” says Manzhos.

    What is next for the ruble? Manzhos says that the ruble exchange rate for the coming months is not predictable, as it is only partly dependent on economic factors and more dependent on the decisions of the regulator, which can be unpredictable. Therefore, experts now rather talk about what ruble exchange rate is comfortable for the economy and the budget, because in theory the Central Bank should strive for it.

    As long as the rule on the sale of 80% of foreign exchange earnings is in effect, the ruble will continue to strengthen, Chernov says. But the Central Bank has already announced a reduction in the rule on the sale of up to 50% of foreign exchange earnings.

    The budget for 2022 includes an exchange rate of 72.1 rubles and the cost of Russian Urals oil at $44.2, that is, the budget should have received 3,186 rubles per barrel of oil. “With the current cost of Urals at $78.71 per barrel, our budget is satisfied with the dollar exchange rate of 40 rubles. However, Russian oil is now being sold at a big discount, about 30-35 dollars, which means that the dollar exchange rate of 66-74 rubles is currently comfortable for the planned filling of the budget, ”says Chernov.

    Therefore, his forecast for the coming months at the ruble exchange rate is in the range of 65-75 rubles. However, the expert stipulates that if oil rises in price, which may happen in the very next few days after the embargo on the export of Russian oil products to the EU countries, then a lower dollar exchange rate will be comfortable for Russia. “For example, with the growth of Brent oil to $120 per barrel, the planned filling of the Russian budget will also be provided by the dollar exchange rate of 53-57 rubles. But, in our opinion, then the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will cancel the rule on the sale of foreign exchange earnings by exporters in order to ensure excess budget revenues at a dollar exchange rate of 65-74 rubles, ”concludes the source.

    “Even with a geopolitical premium against the backdrop of ultra-comfortable export prices, the US currency may well fall into the range of 50-55 rubles. However, whether our monetary authorities really need a strong ruble is a big question. Against the backdrop of strengthening the vector of social policy and serious economic challenges for the state, the range of 70-75 rubles remains quite comfortable, ”says economist Andrei Loboda, director of external relations at BitRiver.

    https://vz.ru/economy/2022/5/13/1158155.html

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    Kiko
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    Post  Kiko Fri May 13, 2022 2:19 pm

    Russia can adapt exchange rates to its needs and keeping market rules by injecting/retrieving currency liquidity at the Moscow Stock Exchange so that the ruble attains the desired position.

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    Post  owais.usmani Fri May 13, 2022 3:13 pm

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    caveat emptor
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    Post  caveat emptor Fri May 13, 2022 3:39 pm

    Kiko wrote:Russia can adapt exchange rates to its needs and keeping market rules by injecting/retrieving currency liquidity at the Moscow Stock Exchange so that the ruble attains the desired position.
    I don't think they are willing to let ruble become too strong. I believe that ruble around 70 is comfortable for MoF and CBR.

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    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Fri May 13, 2022 4:58 pm

    A strong ruble can mean expensive production and manufacturing which means higher prices for end products. So a balance is needed.

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    Post  Kiko Fri May 13, 2022 6:00 pm

    caveat emptor wrote:
    Kiko wrote:Russia can adapt exchange rates to its needs and keeping market rules by injecting/retrieving currency liquidity at the Moscow Stock Exchange so that the ruble attains the desired position.
    I don't think they are willing to let ruble become too strong. I believe that ruble around 70 is comfortable for MoF and CBR.

    The ideal is a relatively stronger ruble against the dollar and a weaker one against the euro. The reason for this is that the international commodity markets (mainly Chicago and London, which is an aberration and should be corrected) fix the majority of commodity prices in US dollars, and Russia needs to reduce inflation. At the same time, Russia's main market is the eurozone, so it's a better chance to redirect cheaper exports to them.
    So, in order to not let the ruble become exceedingly strong against the euro, CBR should start purchasing euros at the Moscow Stock Exchange and keep them in a currency reserve basket for the future.
    lancelot
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    Post  lancelot Fri May 13, 2022 6:02 pm

    It is pointless to have Euros if you can't buy anything with them.

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    Post  sepheronx Fri May 13, 2022 6:03 pm

    Kiko wrote:
    caveat emptor wrote:
    Kiko wrote:Russia can adapt exchange rates to its needs and keeping market rules by injecting/retrieving currency liquidity at the Moscow Stock Exchange so that the ruble attains the desired position.
    I don't think they are willing to let ruble become too strong. I believe that ruble around 70 is comfortable for MoF and CBR.

    The ideal is a relatively stronger ruble against the dollar and a weaker one against the euro. The reason for this is that the international commodity markets (mainly Chicago and London, which is an aberration and should be corrected) fix the majority of commodity prices in US dollars, and Russia needs to reduce inflation. At the same time, Russia's main market is the eurozone, so it's a better chance to redirect cheaper exports to them.
    So, in order to not let the ruble become exceedingly strong against the euro, CBR should start purchasing euros at the Moscow Stock Exchange and keep them in a currency reserve basket for the future.

    Lancelot is correct - Russia cannot use euros now due to the sanctions. So it's in Russias best interest to get more Yuans and Rupees as example.

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    Post  caveat emptor Fri May 13, 2022 6:52 pm

    Kiko wrote:
    caveat emptor wrote:
    Kiko wrote:Russia can adapt exchange rates to its needs and keeping market rules by injecting/retrieving currency liquidity at the Moscow Stock Exchange so that the ruble attains the desired position.
    I don't think they are willing to let ruble become too strong. I believe that ruble around 70 is comfortable for MoF and CBR.

    The ideal is a relatively stronger ruble against the dollar and a weaker one against the euro. The reason for this is that the international commodity markets (mainly Chicago and London, which is an aberration and should be corrected) fix the majority of commodity prices in US dollars, and Russia needs to reduce inflation. At the same time, Russia's main market is the eurozone, so it's a better chance to redirect cheaper exports to them.
    So, in order to not let the ruble become exceedingly strong against the euro, CBR should start purchasing euros at the Moscow Stock Exchange and keep them in a currency reserve basket for the future.
    Euro is in a worse shape than dollar and that is why stronger euro, weaker dollar situation will not play out soon. 
    Holding dollars or euros is of no difference at current political situation. Both are sanctioned and worthless to Russia. 
    With that said, both Russia and EU will have to find a way to mend relationship, as it makes a lot of sense for both economies. Russian energy infrastructure is optimized for Europe exports and taking it completely to Asia will take more than a decade. China last year bought less than 10% of amount of natgas Europe bought. This will rise further in coming years, it shows importance of Russo-European collaboration. Even if not friends, it would be crazy to completely stop trading.

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    lancelot
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    Post  lancelot Fri May 13, 2022 7:44 pm

    caveat emptor wrote:Russian energy infrastructure is optimized for Europe exports and taking it completely to Asia will take more than a decade. China last year bought less than 10% of amount of natgas Europe bought. This will rise further in coming years, it shows importance of Russo-European collaboration. Even if not friends, it would be crazy to completely stop trading.
    Actually if Russia builds Soyuz-Vostok and expands LNG export capacity in Yamal then it can switch an amount equivalent to over half of current gas exports to the EU towards China or other Far Eastern nations instead.

    Just look at this chart of Russian LNG exports.
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1029164/russia-liquefied-natural-gas-annual-exports/

    In 2017 Russia exported 15.4 bcm of LNG. In 2020 it was 40.4 bcm. That is 17.5 mtpa from Yamal LNG and 9.6 mtpa from Sakhalin LNG.
    If Arctic 2 LNG came online, that would be another 19.8 mtpa. 19.8 * 1.41 is roughly 28 bcm.
    Soyuz-Vostok is expected to be 50 bcm.

    So those two projects alone, Arctic 2 LNG and Soyuz-Vostok, would be 78 bcm. Russian gas exports to the EU in 2021 were 140 bcm according to the IAEA.

    Due to geography alone it makes sense for Russia and Europe to trade. Closest market to Russia's core. But if political circumstances don't allow it then Russia has little options. And once the infrastructure to export for Russia to export to Asia is built I doubt the trade will switch back easily.

    If you look at it carefully a lot of the supplies for Russian energy and materials like coal or nickel are about equidistant to either Europe or China.

    There are also plans to quadruple freight volume through Far Eastern rail. This includes doubling track and double stacking rail. The main obstacles are lack of tunnels in certain sections but some of those tunnels are already being built.

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    Post  caveat emptor Fri May 13, 2022 8:01 pm

    lancelot wrote:
    caveat emptor wrote:Russian energy infrastructure is optimized for Europe exports and taking it completely to Asia will take more than a decade. China last year bought less than 10% of amount of natgas Europe bought. This will rise further in coming years, it shows importance of Russo-European collaboration. Even if not friends, it would be crazy to completely stop trading.
    Actually if Russia builds Soyuz-Vostok and expands LNG export capacity in Yamal then it can switch an amount equivalent to over half of current gas exports to the EU towards China or other Far Eastern nations instead.

    Just look at this chart of Russian LNG exports.
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1029164/russia-liquefied-natural-gas-annual-exports/

    In 2017 Russia exported 15.4 bcm of LNG. In 2020 it was 40.4 bcm. That is 17.5 mtpa from Yamal LNG and 9.6 mtpa from Sakhalin LNG.
    If Arctic 2 LNG came online, that would be another 19.8 mtpa. 19.8 * 1.41 is roughly 28 bcm.
    Soyuz-Vostok is expected to be 50 bcm.

    So those two projects alone, Arctic 2 LNG and Soyuz-Vostok, would be 78 bcm. Russian gas exports to the EU in 2021 were 140 bcm according to the IAEA.
    Building LNG terminals will be a big problem due to sanctions, as they were built with western tech. I'm not sure how long will import substitution take in that sector. Novatek tried with their own tech, but had to go back to the drawing board due to not satisfactory results. LNG gas is inherently more expensive i.e. less competitive than natgas delivered via pipelines.
    Before any of these pipelines and LNG trains, Amur GPP will have to be finished. It will be a decent litmus test that will show how Russia will cope with sanctions in the sector. At present time it is 84+% ready, and two lines are up and running while third and forth are almost completely built.
    Europe is commiting economic suicide by buying a lot of US LNG. This is why they are also trying diversify to Azerbaijani and Algerian gas more.
    Soyuz-Vostok is a part of PoS 2 pipeline system and it will start to be built in 2024, if everything goes according to plan. It will bring gas for the first time to some Russian regions, as well, and should bring benefits to local communities along the way. 
    These are still early days, so there's not much clarity how will Ru-EU relations proceed further. Looking at things as black and white or binary outcomes.is not good when analyzing anything. I can assure you that Ru government and business will be first to continue business relationship with EU. Same goes for the opposite side.
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    Post  Sujoy Fri May 13, 2022 8:23 pm

    Economic situation the world over is quite grim because the U.S is exporting inflation everywhere.

    With the exception of Russia and China the rest of the world is now heading towards a recession.

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    Post  kvs Fri May 13, 2022 8:59 pm

    The planners in the NATzO west are suffering from severe hubris brain rot. What they have left of their brains are oozing out of their
    noses.

    The idea that they can embargo Russian exports of oil and gas as if that will only affect Russia is Nth degree cringe. In spite of all
    the dick stroking about non-conventional oil and gas ("tight oil and gas") from fracked formations, the world is still in the decline
    stage of oil and gas production. The fake stream media deliberately confounds the Green River shale kerogen deposits with "shale"
    oil such in the Bakken and East Texas formations. These have nothing in common. There are no commercial kerogen to synthetic
    crude operations. The only experimental ones (i.e. the Shell operation) have failed. The fracking is operating on conventional
    oil and not on kerogens. This is a case of reservoir (porous) rock being trapped between layers of low porosity shale-like rock.
    Tight gas deposits are also an issue of releasing conventional gas trapped in by low porosity rock strata. The bottom line is that
    these formations have tiny fractions of the Green River hypothetical kerogen derived fossil fuel (i.e. two trillion barrels).

    There are no more conventional oil deposits waiting to be discovered that compare to the Saudi Ghawar and other major fields of
    the past. Some clowns chime in with "there is oil at the bottom of the ocean". They are idiots, of course. Take a look at the
    rock formations in the Arctic Basin. They are metamorphosed sedimentary. Such rock does not contain oil and gas since it would
    have been cooked off during the formation process of these types of rock. The oil and gas deposits in the Arctic are near the shores
    and in younger sedimentary formations. Their scale is limited. If you look around the bottom of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans
    you will also see a lack the right type of rock formations. Really all of the oil and gas is in the continental shelf zones and has been
    exploited for decades.

    So the clowns in the EU think that they can remove supply from the biggest natural gas and top three oil producers from the market
    and everything will be hunky dory. These brain rot victims have no sense of scale and supply constraints. They see one LNG tanker
    and think that all of their gas can be shipped as LNG.

    Like I said, by fall these f*ckers will be in a world of pain.

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    Post  andalusia Fri May 13, 2022 10:26 pm

    Here’s a summary of Vladimir Putin’s PhD thesis in economics. It may be that the Zionist Empire overlords fear his thinking as much as they want to grab Russia’s vast natural resources.


    Mineral and Raw Materials Resources
    and the Development Strategy for the Russian Economy



    https://www.theatlantic.com/daily-dish/archive/2008/08/putins-thesis-raw-text/212739/

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    Post  LMFS Sat May 14, 2022 1:41 am

    kvs wrote:The idea that they can embargo Russian exports of oil and gas as if that will only affect Russia is Nth degree cringe.  

    They are so smart that they can fool the universe and the laws of physics. Their latest genius plan was to organize some buyers' club of oil, like a reverse OPEC, to force their rules upon the producing countries... no shit

    Guess they are taking example from the EU and their epic "give us gas for free or we will freeze our assess to spite you" respekt

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    Post  lancelot Sat May 14, 2022 1:54 am

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1298593/frozen-assets-of-bank-of-russia-by-country/

    In case you did not know where the Russian Central Bank foreign reserves were.
    Russia and economic war by the west - Page 32 Rcb10

    The frozen central bank foreign reserves were: 71 billion in France, 58 billion in Japan, 55 billion in Germany, 38 billion in the United States, 26 billion in the UK, 17 billion in Austria, and 16 billion in Canada.

    The not frozen central bank foreign reserves were: 127 billion in gold in Russia, 81 billion in China, and 63 billion in other countries.

    These are the stats you usually see from last year. But in the latest numbers from this year supposedly the amount stored in China increased.

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    Post  kvs Sat May 14, 2022 2:18 am

    The CBR is staffed by monetarists and fellow travelers. They could easily have had 40% in Yuan. There is less risk from China than from NATzO states.
    The monetarist NATzO-philes were engaged in a type of sabotage by using the phony reputation of the west for stability and adherence to rules.
    Neither trait has been applicable to the west since before the west existed.

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    Post  GarryB Sat May 14, 2022 11:55 am

    If Poland take over Galicia before Russia doing so, later Poland would have to assume some part of the Ukrainian debt for sure

    Doing so would join the war agaisnt Russia on the side of Kiev which would lead to lots of dead Poles and no claim for Article 5 protection from HATO allies.

    but given the fact Russia (supposedly) took over almost the entire country,[2] including the capital, it would be hard (read impossible) to convince anyone (in any terms) western Ukraine was the major beneficiary of that money[3], what would be necessary to somehow force Poland to assume the larger part of it.

    Could be argued that Ukraine has been without a real government since the 2014 coup because opposition parties were banned, so Kiev is not the legitimate government of Ukraine... any funds the west gives or donates or lends is lost and it is their risk.

    Theoretically, Russia could demand some assets, but seriously?

    When Ukraine stops being a country the problem will be for the debtors to find some money, or they can write it all off to a failed attempt to destroy Russia.

    Either way I doubt Russia would be interested in paying money in a court case held in Europe by a court that is as politically motivated as western courts are.

    Russia is turning its back to the west and it understands that a knife in the back is the expected result, which is why they wont accept the juristiction of any western controlled organisation regarding its future moving forward.

    [1] probably decades of discussions and annoyances.

    Not at all... as soon as Russia demands all trade with hostile western countries to be done in Rubles most trade is going to cease... at which point most Russian embassies in Europe will be closed when all the diplomats are kicked out in singles or groups, at which point Russia will close all western embassies in Russia except possibly the US... but maybe close them too because what is the point.

    No need to discuss anything at all.

    [2] or ever if central Ukraine is still independent, this is not on Poland hands anyway.

    Poland has a history of stealing land when borders shift in the region but I am sure Russia will take advantage of this to kill some Poles with cruise missiles if they try.

    [3] just have a look on western Ukraine level of development.

    Western Ukraine is what it is and will likely remain so.

    5 - the representatives of the now independent republics also sign the document to reinforce the whole thing.

    Nice.... but after 8 years Kiev under two different presidents failed to do what they signed up to do with the Minsk agreements... what value is a signature from that censored .

    The countries that supplied money can get it back from the Ukrainian officials that stole it and then disappeared to the west just afterwards, or they can accept it is gone. They were creating a weapon against Russia... there is no way Russia nor the regions they rescued from that nazi soup will pay that back.

    I wouldn't bother keeping that law degree you have, seems rather useless.

    It is part of the weapon the west has been using against the rest of the world and is exactly what Russia is fighting against...

    It is what the colonial powers used to justify their abuse of much of the known planet, and the basis of what the US is doing to them now which is nice.

    I would say you are wrong and the Europeans are already siphoning the 300B in Russian reserves to Ukraine.

    I hope they are for two very good reasons... first there will be a hell of a lot more than 300B worth of western assets in Russia they can seize in return, and secondly it shouts to the world that US dollars and Euros are not safe in western banks for foreign countries who might find themselves on the wrong side in any future confrontation involving the west.

    The first will fix the damage of the problem... in both senses because no doubt when a western company loses billions of dollars worth of assets in Russia and seeks compensation from its own government the money they could have used to pay them has gone to Ukraine... or more precisely into the pockets of western and Kiev officials who will pretend it is helping the Ukraine.

    But secondly it will seriously damage the reputation of the US dollar and the Euro and western banking system... who is that going to hurt in the long run?

    International law was written in the west. Why do you think that is? Your education teaches you a vary narrow viewpoint of only thay particular law structure crayed by those institutions that benefit then. BYW, you say it's a long process. OK. Then look at the outright theft of Iran's gold and resource which still isn't fully paid back. Let's wait for that resolution before saying Russia will have to pay back. Lol.

    International law that allows a British court to award two billion dollars in gold assets of the country of Venezuela to be given to Guano... who has never been elected to anything and has been appointed by the west as some figurehead... yeah... sounds like international law needs some real revision.

    Now, if the Poles take over western Ukraine before Russia doing so, for starters Poland is now part of the controversy too and Russia would need to convince Poland to also accept these terms or obliterate her to an unconditional surrender too. But then it would hardly be so simple.

    If the Poles cross the border into the Ukraine they become a party to the war on Kievs side and can be calibrated out of existence... for it to be a peace keeping force they would need the permission of the UNSC and what chance is there of that...

    If the Poles cross the border I am sure there are lots of military targets in Poland Russia would love to suppress... they have monuments to nazis there so that would be a good target for a start...

    The fact Russia is not just paying its debt but also making clear it will do everything to not default[1] clearly indicate you have absolutely no clue of what you are talking about, and somehow living in a fantasy world of Russian exceptionalism. Please, look for a doctor.

    Because Russian debts to western creditors is all about western investment into the growth and development of Russia with some people in the west getting a bit of profit out of it.

    Ukrainian debt is propping up a nazi regime that has been shelling its own people for 8 years claiming they are Russian invaders... most of that money not going any where near Ukraine and likely being deposited into bank accounts around the world where ever tax laws are weak.

    Actually if Russia builds Soyuz-Vostok and expands LNG export capacity in Yamal then it can switch an amount equivalent to over half of current gas exports to the EU towards China or other Far Eastern nations instead.

    Very much agree. Russia needs to look to creating trade partners in the rest of the world to replace their so called western partners...

    Due to geography alone it makes sense for Russia and Europe to trade. Closest market to Russia's core. But if political circumstances don't allow it then Russia has little options. And once the infrastructure to export for Russia to export to Asia is built I doubt the trade will switch back easily.

    Russia needs to follow up their pipe building in Asia with sales of equipment that uses gas to help the Asian economies switch to cleaner burning gas energy sources and away from dirty coal, or unreliable green energy sources.

    As cheap Russian gas arrives in Asia then more expensive gas from the middle east and US will have to migrate to europe who by then will be used to paying the prices these sources require to be profitable.

    But then it is not just energy.... there are a lot of industries that rely on gas to produce products that electricity generated in other ways simply can't replace...

    LNG gas is inherently more expensive i.e. less competitive than natgas delivered via pipelines.

    But not when the pipelines are on hostile countries that might steal flow gas without warning. The Europeans have made themselves bad customers, and it is willfully bad on purpose... the solution is simple... the Europeans have been talking about a pivot to Asia because there is big money and growth potential there.... they have been screwing Russia who has been working with China to improve trade routes from Europe to Asia via land and sea and air... well euro sanctions already blocked air routes over Russia... why would Russia promote land or sea routes for anyone but itself now?

    I can assure you that Ru government and business will be first to continue business relationship with EU. Same goes for the opposite side.

    Yeah, I think the US trying to kill Russians and telling the EU to help them achieve this and then actually doing it for the last 8 years all the while blaming Russia for everything might leave a bad taste in their mouths...

    I understand EU companies wanting relations... they obviously make good money there... they are not charities... but their countries pushing weapons into the hands of Ukrainian civilians to get them to kill Russian soldiers... all out in the open like...

    I hope Russia realises it is an abused country and sucking up to the countries that are abusing it is not healthy... your hero worship of the west needs to stop... they are scumbags and they hate you.

    EU companies wanting to stay in Russia want to stay there because their branches in Russia are making good money while their branches at home are stagnating...

    To be clear there are some western companies that are ignoring sanctions... those food companies that are refusing to sanction Russia because they know people around the world will starve if they are selfish and political and sanction the Russians along with their countries governments.

    Those companies should be rewarded and promoted...

    The frozen central bank foreign reserves were: 71 billion in France, 58 billion in Japan, 55 billion in Germany, 38 billion in the United States, 26 billion in the UK, 17 billion in Austria, and 16 billion in Canada.

    I read somewhere that part of the frozen funds were gasprom accounts where EU countries paid their gas bills, which were frozen.

    This is why they demanded that european countries paid their gas bills into a Russian bank account and set up another account in the same bank in rubles to transfer their money in Euros from one account to the Rubles account to pay for gas that way the money can't be siezed before or after conversion by the west.

    If that is true then some of the frozen money is actually gas money so if it is stolen then that amount of gas is not paid for and should be withheld... in fact that might be a good measure... all assets siezed in the west will be taken as gas pumped so if you sieze 300 billion in assets or currency then Gasprom will withhold 300 billion in gas until the assets are returned or money refunded.

    They of course need to be smart about it too.

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    Post  rigoletto Sat May 14, 2022 5:39 pm

    GarryB wrote:Doing so would join the war agaisnt Russia on the side of Kiev which would lead to lots of dead Poles and no claim for Article 5 protection from HATO allies.

    GarryB wrote:If the Poles cross the border into the Ukraine they become a party to the war on Kievs side and can be calibrated out of existence... for it to be a peace keeping force they would need the permission of the UNSC and what chance is there of that...

    If the Poles cross the border I am sure there are lots of military targets in Poland Russia would love to suppress... they have monuments to nazis there so that would be a good target for a start...

    Poland and even more the Poles are irrelevant, they were brought in as a tool and as tool they would be used. Provided it allow NATO to archive some objectives they will more than happy with that. Article 5 would not play hole, the own NATO (USA) already made is clear to Poland. This is public data.

    GarryB wrote:Could be argued that Ukraine has been without a real government since the 2014 coup because opposition parties were banned, so Kiev is not the legitimate government of Ukraine... any funds the west gives or donates or lends is lost and it is their risk.

    Fundamented in what, «odious debt»?  Laughing

    GarryB wrote:When Ukraine stops being a country the problem will be for the debtors to find some money, or they can write it all off to a failed attempt to destroy Russia.

    How could writing someone debt off harm the target in any way?

    GarryB wrote:Either way I doubt Russia would be interested in paying money in a court case held in Europe by a court that is as politically motivated as western courts are.

    Russia is turning its back to the west and it understands that a knife in the back is the expected result, which is why they wont accept the juristiction of any western controlled organisation regarding its future moving forward.

    GarryB wrote:Not at all... as soon as Russia demands all trade with hostile western countries to be done in Rubles most trade is going to cease... at which point most Russian embassies in Europe will be closed when all the diplomats are kicked out in singles or groups, at which point Russia will close all western embassies in Russia except possibly the US... but maybe close them too because what is the point.

    No need to discuss anything at all.

    GarryB wrote:Nice.... but after 8 years Kiev under two different presidents failed to do what they signed up to do with the Minsk agreements... what value is a signature from that censored

    GarryB wrote:The countries that supplied money can get it back from the Ukrainian officials that stole it and then disappeared to the west just afterwards, or they can accept it is gone. They were creating a weapon against Russia... there is no way Russia nor the regions they rescued from that nazi soup will pay that back.

    GarryB wrote:It is part of the weapon the west has been using against the rest of the world and is exactly what Russia is fighting against...

    It is what the colonial powers used to justify their abuse of much of the known planet, and the basis of what the US is doing to them now which is nice.

    International law was written in the west.  Why do you think that is?  Your education teaches you a vary narrow viewpoint of only thay particular law structure crayed by those institutions that benefit then.  BYW, you say it's a long process.  OK. Then look at the outright theft of Iran's gold and resource which still isn't fully paid back.  Let's wait for that resolution before saying Russia will have to pay back.  Lol.

    GarryB wrote:International law that allows a British court to award two billion dollars in gold assets of the country of Venezuela to be given to Guano... who has never been elected to anything and has been appointed by the west as some figurehead... yeah... sounds like international law needs some real revision.

    GarryB wrote:Because Russian debts to western creditors is all about western investment into the growth and development of Russia with some people in the west getting a bit of profit out of it.

    Ukrainian debt is propping up a nazi regime that has been shelling its own people for 8 years claiming they are Russian invaders... most of that money not going any where near Ukraine and likely being deposited into bank accounts around the world where ever tax laws are weak.

    Please, re-read the Russian official statements but also observe her deeds, carefully. Their actions, and this is clearly and objectively stated[1], are to keep the rule on the International Law in the way it is while removing the points that where hijacked by the west in the process of implementing the «Rules Based International Order».

    What you think Russia will do have nothing to do with Russia will actually do (by her own words and deeds). For some reason you are clearly confused expecting Russia to implement their own «Rules Based International Order»[2], and the only reason they are winning is exactly because this is exactly the opposite case.

    Most of the international bodies well know by the general public are purely European (in strictly sense) true, this is also what amateurs know. These bodies like literally almost all others (except by the UNSC) have absolutely no power over any non-member state, and the only reason they are so well-know is because the propaganda about them, but just that they are well known. Another reason is, there is no alternative to them in several cases but just because nobody managed to join enough political forces to create an alternative with substance - there is nothing special about it but just international politics.

    E.g. Russia was not forced to join into the Council of Europe, but once she was in their rules had to be followed[3]. Now Russia left, they could left at any time but did it now, and this is purely a political decision of their own.

    What Russia will do in general[4], the so called «New World Order», is mostly politically re-organize the existing current state of affairs. There is no way to Russia make wide changes in the ICJ for instance, because it is formally bounded to UNSC and the UNGA, and the changes would be vetoed. Also, these changes are not necessary at all, it works exactly in the way it was designed to work.

    The ICJ judges changes every 9 years IIRC, and the judges are nominated by the UNSC and the UNGA. The result are nothing but a reflex of the state of affairs at that given moment, and the most influential parties play a major rule. This is by design, and the USSR was quite active on its design, btw.

    At the point of the next nomination, if Russia is the most influential party it will be reflected in there automatically, there is no need to change anything. If a specific country doesn't have a lot of influence at international level it is not supposed to play any major rule in the decisions - it simply doesn't make sense at international level, and would lead to chaos. When Russia talk about multi lateral world she roughly means a return of the «League of Nations», but in a extended version.

    In diplomatic and legal terms[5], establishing a «New World Order» means a new convention about diplomatic relations to substitute the «Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations of 1961»[6], and based on the current state of affairs it is quite likely to be more like a return to the «Congress of Vienna of 1815» than something new, and this is the only major change that is necessary, all the rest will happen automatically after that.

    In lay terms, it means the notion of absolute non-intervention in politics and affairs of other countries would be relative again, because the regional powers not just then can interfere in its neighbors affairs but is obligated to do so if necessary to stabilize them. This is why big countries like China, Brazil, and India are easily supporting Russia, but this come back would also led to the necessity of regulating the regional relations to avoid issues of the past.

    Russia mastered the International Law and diplomacy long ago, she is among the best on both and appreciate how it works. Why would she change it?

    If you really think once Russia consolidate it will starting acting like cowboy west it indicate you literally and absolutely have no idea of who Russia is. She is one of the most conservatives countries in regards to International Law and Relations. The «New World Order» sold by Russia is more like «Back to the Future» than something new.

    [1] Russia (USSR, and at some extent the Empire) is a very legalist country. They mean exactly what they say.
    [2] if you ever know what it actually mean.
    [3] again Russia is a legalist country.
    [4] again by their own words and explicited by their deeds (and history).
    [5] the actual target of the Russia's words, not the general public.
    [6] [EDIT] Not the right treaty! Needs correction.


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    Post  andalusia Sat May 14, 2022 9:23 pm

    ‘US aid’ is an oxymoron. It comes as a loan with interest, and can only be spent on US systems with a small amount reserved for bribing various foreign officials. Reference Tony Perkins ‘Confessions of an Economic Hit Man’.

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