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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #31

    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:39 am

    Arrow wrote:
    ALAMO wrote:
    The only real difference to them is the fact, that it won't change the potential of striking targets in the CONUS.
    But they can keep in a safe distance a routine patrol of 885M soon enough not to bother.

    They can also deploy missile weapons in Chukotka or Kamchatka.  Thanks to hypersonic weapons, they can hit ABM installations in Alaska very quickly.  Additionally, it is about 4000 km to the West Coast of the USA, so they can put some IRBM or even a GLCM like Calibr M. CONUS there, is very poorly protected against cruise missiles.  An IRBM can be built, the final stage of which will be the Cirkon missile Very Happy

    And a couple of important islands in the Pacific.

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    Post  GarryB Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:06 am

    Because it is a real goal of sanctions. To make the population starve, leading to unrests and revolts against it's rulers.
    It is a mainstay of the theory.

    They use it against allies and friends as well as enemies or perceived enemies... and the real irony is that it only ever seems to work on friends and allies best.

    But I am sure the only problem with sanctions on Russia has been they just weren't hard enough... the next round of sanctions should do it.

    The irony is that what Russia should be doing is looking at the money base of the current supporters of the current administration and target their income with their return sanctions and watch the US backtrack...

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    Post  kvs Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:36 am

    Applying the same solution approach to a problem over and over without any results is the definition of
    insanity, and mental deficiency.

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    Post  Godric Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:40 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    Because it is a real goal of sanctions. To make the population starve, leading to unrests and revolts against it's rulers.
    It is a mainstay of the theory.

    They use it against allies and friends as well as enemies or perceived enemies... and the real irony is that it only ever seems to work on friends and allies best.

    But I am sure the only problem with sanctions on Russia has been they just weren't hard enough... the next round of sanctions should do it.

    The irony is that what Russia should be doing is looking at the money base of the current supporters of the current administration and target their income with their return sanctions and watch the US backtrack...

    1 sanction Russia can hit America with which would hit them more than anything is sanctioning the sale of Russian Titanium it would cripple American plane building military and civil ... it's all about the Quality China extracts more than Russia but it's poorer quality as is Japan's 3rd place ... china and Russia should work together  China and Russia with Titanium and China with rare earth metals ... America would soon be on it's knees and ban the sale of Russian and Chinese Titanium and rare earth metals to America via 3rd parties

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    Post  Arkanghelsk Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:02 pm

    Let sanctions hit,

    The fate of Ukraine is the same as Grozny,

    Banderites will end as dudayev and basayev

    Ukrainian independence will end like the chechen one

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    Post  kvs Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:36 pm

    Arkanghelsk wrote:Let sanctions hit,

    The fate of Ukraine is the same as Grozny,

    Banderites will end as dudayev and basayev

    Ukrainian independence will end like the chechen one

    But the key is to let the Banderites first show what an utter failure and toxin they are for Ukraine.
    Ukrainians need to see their Banderite "heroes" fail. If Russia invades, then it absolves these freaks
    of their crimes. And Ukrainians will swallow the excuse that every failure since 2013 was the fault
    of evil Moskals.

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    Post  PapaDragon Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:47 pm


    USA can't sanction Russia anymore

    If they did they would officially create Sino/Russian alliance which is what they have been trying to avoid at all costs

    Granted, some liberal morons in USA in conjunction with their EU bosses and media could bum-rush this before adults could stop it but they would just be fucking USA over for decades to come

    Either works for Russia


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    Post  Arrow Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:54 pm

    If they did they would officially create Sino/Russian alliance which is what they have been trying to avoid at all costs wrote:

    The Russian-Chinese alliance is now a reality.

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    Post  Arkanghelsk Mon Jan 03, 2022 6:32 pm

    Chechnya took about 10 years or more to pacify and suppress the secession.

    Mashkhadov could have had own state, but the stupidity of basayev and other imbeciles cost them true sovereignty.

    Same with Ukrainian secessionists. Banderite secessionists are like the wolves of chechnya.

    Once chechens like kadyrov smelled the impending doom of defeat via thermobaric MLRS and SU strikes, they capitulated and switched to federal side.

    It's the same with the Ukrainians. DPR and LPR have been clobbering these guys for years. More and more will either leave the country or fight against the banderites.

    The decisive battle is coming, just like grozny, then counter insurgency will begin

    Debaltseve and ilovaisk were not the decisive finishers, that will be in kiev, those battles were more like the battles in the yurts and mountains preceding the main one

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    Post  thegopnik Mon Jan 03, 2022 6:35 pm

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1544090/putin-news-russia-china-gas-deal-eu-energy-crisis-ukraine-power-of-siberia-nord-stream-2

    Putin outsmarts EU as new China gas deal to pump 'same amount' as banned German pipeline,worsens Europe's gas crisis
    RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin is reportedly in the final stages of making a deal with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on building a new pipeline that could further worsen Europe's gas crisis.
    By ANTONY ASHKENAZ
    12:46, Mon, Jan 3, 2022 | UPDATED: 12:47, Mon, Jan 3, 2022
    微信图片_20220103212254.png

    The agreement would double exports to China, transporting up to fifty billion cubic metres more natural gas every year via a major new planned pipeline - Power of Siberia 2. This comes as the rest of Europe reels from a major energy crisis, with prices climbing to a new record last week, up almost 800 percent since the start of the year. The EU's energy crisis has intensified in the past weeks after nuclear reactors were halted in France, with Germany recording low wind power output.

    The resultant power shortage has prompted countries to burn more coal and even oil to keep the lights on and homes warm, flying in the face of the COP26 commitment to phase out fossil fuels.

    Experts have accused Mr Putin of tinkering with gas supplies in order to pressure the European Union into approving the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

    The new pipeline will see gas transited from Russia into Germany, bypassing Poland and Ukraine. But after getting hit with delays, certification remains suspended.

    Analysts warn that this new pipeline would give Russia further leverage over Europe, which would leave the bloc powerless to stop the Kremlin’s growing aggression towards Ukraine.

    Danil Buchkov, an expert on Russia and China relations, said: "Power of Siberia 2 will supply gas from Siberia’s Yamal Peninsula, source of gas exported to Europe.

    "Western officials worry project could have geopolitical implications for European nations before they embark in earnest on transition to renewables.

    "The planned Power of Siberia 2 pipeline will be able to pump into China around the same amount that Nord Stream 2 would be able to transport to Europe, giving the Kremlin more options about who gets the gas and at what price."

    微信图片_20220103212346.png

    Brandon Weichert, a geopolitical analyst, told Express.co.uk that Europe’s dependence on Russian gas will mean they will eventually have to cave to Moscow’s pressure.

    The two countries installed the first direct natural gas pipeline called the Power of Siberia in 2019.

    The second pipeline, Power of Siberia 2 is expected to start operating in 2030 and will be owned by China National Petroleum, and Gazprom.

    Mr Weichert explained: “The move gives Russia more money and allows for them to evade the sanctions that the West has been subjecting Moscow to since their unlawful annexation of Crimea in 2014.”

    Mr Weichert said that it is inevitable that Russia will come out on top, as the West will have to give in to Mr Putin’s demands to keep gas prices stable.

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    Post  Arkanghelsk Mon Jan 03, 2022 6:36 pm

    Also counter insurgency is gonna be lot easier than dagestan.

    Remember VKS now has lots of nice drones , and has been pummeling khattabs remnants in syria.

    They have experience. These hunters will be prowling over Ukraine and culling those who so desperately want to suicide by Russia.

    This is not 1999. 2022 is another ball game.

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    Post  JohninMK Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:00 pm

    thegopnik wrote:https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1544090/putin-news-russia-china-gas-deal-eu-energy-crisis-ukraine-power-of-siberia-nord-stream-2

    [i]Putin outsmarts EU as new China gas deal to pump 'same amount' as banned German pipeline,worsens Europe's gas crisis
    RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin is reportedly in the final stages of making a deal with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on building a new pipeline that could further worsen Europe's gas crisis.

    TOTALLY wrong thread for this post!

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    thegopnik
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    Post  thegopnik Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:20 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    thegopnik wrote:https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1544090/putin-news-russia-china-gas-deal-eu-energy-crisis-ukraine-power-of-siberia-nord-stream-2

    [i]Putin outsmarts EU as new China gas deal to pump 'same amount' as banned German pipeline,worsens Europe's gas crisis
    RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin is reportedly in the final stages of making a deal with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on building a new pipeline that could further worsen Europe's gas crisis.

    TOTALLY wrong thread for this post!

    people were talking about NS2 here so i thouught adding this info would add to ukraines cause of blocking NS2 pointless.

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    Post  JohninMK Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:16 pm

    thegopnik wrote:
    JohninMK wrote:
    thegopnik wrote:https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1544090/putin-news-russia-china-gas-deal-eu-energy-crisis-ukraine-power-of-siberia-nord-stream-2

    [i]Putin outsmarts EU as new China gas deal to pump 'same amount' as banned German pipeline,worsens Europe's gas crisis
    RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin is reportedly in the final stages of making a deal with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on building a new pipeline that could further worsen Europe's gas crisis.

    TOTALLY wrong thread for this post!

    people were talking about NS2 here so i thouught adding this info would add to ukraines cause of blocking NS2 pointless.
    Apart from a minor mention in passing of Ukraine there was no added information in it. If anywhere it goes in the Russian oil and gas thread.

    You also need to remember the quality of the source, the Express. Smile
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    Post  kvs Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:30 pm



    In 1989 the Ukrainian GDP consisted of:

    60% Industrial activity:
    - Coal and iron mining
    - Electrical energy and atomic power generation related
    - Metallurgy
    - Machine building
    - Ship building
    - Aerospace

    20% Agricultural activity:
    - 40% of the total USSR production
    - 42 million hectares of land

    Note that the Donbass was a huge fraction of the industrial activity as it was even after the Bloshies
    gifted this Russian land to the Ukrainian SSR. About 40% of Ukrainian SSR industry was associated with
    the military. The 1990 depression in Ukraine was relatively worse than in Russia because Ukraine lost
    subsidies (including for agriculture) and Russia was not in the condition to import its specialized products.
    This echoes the situation in the last 7 years and rests on the same specialization dating back to before
    1991.

    The post 1991 economic decline and the rise of criminality saw the GDP per capita fall from $10,000 to
    $2,000 in constant dollars. Since 2014 we have seen the closure of aerospace, ship building, severe
    contraction of machine building (e.g. military related engines for aircraft and ships), loss of coal mining
    and substantial fraction of the metallurgy which went together with the Donbass. Rump Ukria's electrical
    energy and associated industry is a dead man walking.

    There is no way that there is any normal level of economy in Ukria. Nothing has replaced the lost industries
    and factories. Building condos on the land of demolished factories is a scam economy. This explains any
    fluffing up of the Ukrian GDP compared to 1989. Lots of real estate and financial money shuffling being
    passed off as real economy. Transferring money from one pocket to another is not economics.

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    Post  miketheterrible Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:44 pm

    kvs wrote:

    In 1989 the Ukrainian GDP consisted of:

    60% Industrial activity:
    - Coal and iron mining
    - Electrical energy and atomic power generation related
    - Metallurgy
    - Machine building
    - Ship building
    - Aerospace

    20% Agricultural activity:
    - 40% of the total USSR production
    - 42 million hectares of land

    Note that the Donbass was a huge fraction of the industrial activity as it was even after the Bloshies
    gifted this Russian land to the Ukrainian SSR.  About 40% of Ukrainian SSR industry was associated with
    the military.   The 1990 depression in Ukraine was relatively worse than in Russia because Ukraine lost
    subsidies (including for agriculture) and Russia was not in the condition to import its specialized products.
    This echoes the situation in the last 7 years and rests on the same specialization dating back to before
    1991.

    The post 1991 economic decline and the rise of criminality saw the GDP per capita fall from $10,000 to
    $2,000 in constant dollars.  Since 2014 we have seen the closure of aerospace, ship building, severe
    contraction of machine building (e.g. military related engines for aircraft and ships), loss of coal mining
    and substantial fraction of the metallurgy which went together with the Donbass.   Rump Ukria's electrical
    energy and associated industry is a dead man walking.  

    There is no way that there is any normal level of economy in Ukria.   Nothing has replaced the lost industries
    and factories.   Building condos on the land of demolished factories is a scam economy.   This explains any
    fluffing up of the Ukrian GDP compared to 1989.   Lots of real estate and financial money shuffling being
    passed off as real economy.   Transferring money from one pocket to another is not economics.  


    But that is what it is, fluff. Ukraine is simply fudging their numbers with infrastructure building of nothing (these apartments will sit empty), and foreign loans (finance borrowing is never viewed as a negative in gap calculations. The more debt, the better). That's why modern economic calculations are total fraud, as it doesn't really reflect what is on the ground.

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    Post  LMFS Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:28 pm

    If they had a booming economic they would not be killing for the gas transit. Nykolaev produces stoves, Antonov main facilities will turn into a mall, they celebrate when the West gives them a couple of Zodiacs... a true economic miracle yes Embarassed

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    Post  Godric Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:37 pm

    thegopnik wrote:https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1544090/putin-news-russia-china-gas-deal-eu-energy-crisis-ukraine-power-of-siberia-nord-stream-2


    The Express is the biggest shower of right wing scum in England and that is saying something

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    Post  GarryB Tue Jan 04, 2022 8:51 am

    The current European gas crisis was completely fabricated and designed and honed to perfection in Brussels and it is a total own goal.

    All through the process Putin has been fighting tooth and nail to keep prices down and ensure uninterrupted supply of energy to the EU and thanks to the Ukraine an Poland and the US the opposite is true.

    You see Brussels would rather the EU freeze if they could blame it all on Putin... they see the EU paying Russia for gas as the rich powerful EU supporting Russia and giving it life, so they are trying to sabotage gas as a fuel by forcing the prices up to where they are no longer affordable and all the factories and homes and businesses that use gas at the moment will have to convert to something else... perhaps ground up seal pups or wood stoves... they don't care as long as the money does not go to Russia... which makes Putins comments about EU actions amusing where he said if they don't want gas then Siberia has plenty of trees too.

    What is sticking in their craw is that they have managed to make gas unaffordable... it wont be profitable to use it in a factory at these prices so despite the availability of the gas, they are not buying much if any... but now China looks like it might buy that gas instead so instead of no one buying Russian gas and Russia getting poorer, Russia is now going to be providing energy to Chinese factories and homes and getting money from China instead of from the EU which will need to bid on the market for Freedom gas which will only go to europe when the price is high... so their gas will remain expensive and they will likely find a lot of their industry is just not viable without cheap energy to run it... how much of their industry will move to Russia or China?

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    Post  GarryB Tue Jan 04, 2022 8:55 am

    Also counter insurgency is gonna be lot easier than dagestan.

    What is going to happen is either the US and EU and west is going to back Kiev to the hilt which might lead to their attack on these regions, or Putin might decide if HATO can expand east wards then Russia can expand back and openly recognise the autonomy and independence of the regions they currently consider to be part of the Ukraine... the same as with South Ossetia except without the Georgian invasion. Russia can openly send peacekeeping troops to the regions and set up proper borders and allow the locals to hold a referendum and decide what they want to do.

    Or quietly Biden is going to back down and accept Russias red lines in private and get a few guarantees for the US and HATO on the quiet...
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    Post  JohninMK Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:06 pm

    Ominous

    Victor
    @vicktop55
    ·
    1h
    In the first days of this year, the armed forces of Ukraine are regrouping along the entire line of contact.

    Nationalist battalions entered the settlements. Electronic warfare systems are working so that OSCE unmanned aerial vehicles cannot detect equipment located in

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    Post  kvs Tue Jan 04, 2022 2:34 pm

    The dogs in Kiev have been sicked on the Donbass and this will come to a head. NATzO is banking on some sort of propaganda
    windfall that will help distract the sheeple and prop itself up. But Russia does not need to invade to handle these dogs. They
    can run scurry about and barked their little heads off, but they are not an effective fighting force.

    I expect that staged atrocities will be the main NATzO tool for the propaganda war on Russia. We'll have the ludicrous claim
    that the Donbass defenders are killing their own villagers. We already had this before, but now it will involve NATzO camera
    crews to bring home the engineered tragedy. NATzO and its doggies do not have military solutions, they only have dirty war
    crime solutions.

    Staged atrocities are indeed war crimes.

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    Post  Arkanghelsk Tue Jan 04, 2022 4:54 pm

    It is what it is. The west howled in Chechnya of war crimes when Russians were beheaded and killed, and when the cockroaches were staging terror attacks.

    only brute force can be used to make the nazis understand.

    Dpr and LPR are armed to the teeth,  northern wind should blow hard to rubbish the claims of climate change.

    Sweep the UAF without Russian regular forces, this is a Ukrainian civil war and should be handled by Ukrainians. The right kind of Ukrainians.

    If NATO is arming kiev with javelins, then dont really see why DPR and LPR should not be armed with cluster tochkas

    Hell pantsir should show up too. I mean who knows libya could have given them to the DPR LPR , and take down those bayraktars while they're giving em hell

    At this point t90s could be in DPR inventory, because after seeing those C130s loaded with javelins, armed boats made by the UK, Canadian snipers, and all that, who gives a @#$% what the west says

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    Post  ALAMO Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:04 pm

    Arkanghelsk wrote:It is what it is. The west howled in Chechnya of war crimes when Russians were beheaded and killed, and when the cockroaches were staging terror attacks.

    Because you won't find that info in non-Russian sources, functionally at all.
    If one would say, that 1991-1994 there was a massive ethnic cleansing operation ongoing in the Chechenya, 99% of people would know shit about that.
    From the remaining 1%, half of them would yap about ze evil Russkies making it, having no bloody idea that they were the victims there.
    The non-Muslim population of Chechenya just ... mythically disappeared by 1994. Magic!

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    Post  Arkanghelsk Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:09 pm

    That's why there should not be any attention paid to that rabble.

    Instead just like chechnya was handled by kadyrov, medvedchuk should be installed , and however FSB is handling kadyrov (it's not under threat of poison il tell you that much) is how Medvedchuk should be convinced that he should toe the line and crack down on bad Ukrainians

    Whoever says Russia does not have that kind of influence in Ukraine needs to read up on 1st and 2nd chechen wars. 

    The wolves of chechnya were domesticated. Banderistan can be too

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