Russia Defence Forum

Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Military Forum for Russian and Global Defence Issues


+13
Werewolf
nero
JohninMK
calripson
GarryB
nomadski
lyle6
lancelot
Eugenio Argentina
par far
starman
Isos
Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E
17 posters

    Israel vs Iran Possible War?

    avatar
    ArgentinaGuard


    Posts : 463
    Points : 463
    Join date : 2022-02-27

    Israel vs Iran Possible War? - Page 3 Empty Re: Israel vs Iran Possible War?

    Post  ArgentinaGuard Wed Jan 17, 2024 2:49 pm

    Iran has the ability to copy and cheapen technologies that were expensive in their origin. If they were to obtain an easily manufactured hypersonic missile, Israel would be doomed.
    Isos
    Isos


    Posts : 11233
    Points : 11203
    Join date : 2015-11-06

    Israel vs Iran Possible War? - Page 3 Empty Re: Israel vs Iran Possible War?

    Post  Isos Wed Jan 17, 2024 3:31 pm

    ArgentinaGuard wrote:Iran has the ability to copy and cheapen technologies that were expensive in their origin. If they were to obtain an easily manufactured hypersonic missile, Israel would be doomed.

    They already have BM with hypsersonic speed at impact.

    GarryB likes this post

    avatar
    par far


    Posts : 3469
    Points : 3714
    Join date : 2014-06-26

    Israel vs Iran Possible War? - Page 3 Empty Re: Israel vs Iran Possible War?

    Post  par far Wed Jan 17, 2024 5:19 pm

    Walther von Oldenburg wrote:A slightly off topic question:

    Does any of you guys know what the support for the current government in Iran is? I have heard from an Iranian that it's low, especially among the youth. Any confirmation of this?



    It is not low but it not high, I would say it is in the middle. After the Israeli operation in Gaza it has gone up.

    If you follow Professor Seyed Mohammad Marandi(he is Iran based in Tehran University, he also part of the delegation during JCOPA meetings), he comes on the Duran and other channels. I think he gives unbiased opinion and he has good information.

    https://twitter.com/s_m_marandi?lang=en

    GarryB, Walther von Oldenburg and starman like this post

    nomadski
    nomadski


    Posts : 2679
    Points : 2687
    Join date : 2017-01-02

    Israel vs Iran Possible War? - Page 3 Empty Re: Israel vs Iran Possible War?

    Post  nomadski Wed Jan 17, 2024 6:39 pm

    Walther von Oldenburg wrote:A slightly off topic question:

    Does any of you guys know what the support for the current government in Iran is? I have heard from an Iranian that it's low, especially among the youth. Any confirmation of this?

    Voter turnout was very low in Tehran , during last election . Some 25% only . Plus during previous elections , there were accusations of vote fraud also . I think there is a voter register , people have documentation stamped or recorded , as having voted . And I think people who do not show they voted , are subject to economic sanctions or lack of job opportunity . I think if voter turnout is less than 51% overall , then no legitimate government can form . Marandi or........ the supreme leader , can not speak freely in Iran .

    https://theconversation.com/why-iranians-wont-vote-new-survey-reveals-massive-political-disenchantment-162374


    Even if Iranian parliament can not be held , rest assured , Iranian people are ready to fight the yank and Zionists anytime !

    GarryB and starman like this post

    GarryB
    GarryB


    Posts : 38484
    Points : 38984
    Join date : 2010-03-30
    Location : New Zealand

    Israel vs Iran Possible War? - Page 3 Empty Re: Israel vs Iran Possible War?

    Post  GarryB Thu Jan 18, 2024 2:20 am

    Iran has the ability to copy and cheapen technologies that were expensive in their origin. If they were to obtain an easily manufactured hypersonic missile, Israel would be doomed.

    I am not sure that is true. A lot of the things Iran gets on the black market they have to pay high prices because the people on that black market knows they can't get things from the normal channels so they can demand more.

    Iran is not a rich country that can just throw money around like paper, but it has oil and other resources it can trade for things it needs, but when it comes to something like making cell phones or cars, the cost of making them for Iran is probably much higher than for say China who can get most of its components on the open market where competition keeps prices down and China will be making enormous numbers of phones and cars with plenty of customers at home and for export so mass production will allow cost savings too.

    What Iran does is amazing, but they worked very hard for what they have achieved... which other countries in the region launch their own satellites without much help, and in fact with the entire west trying to put as many barriers in their way as they can.

    Even if Iranian parliament can not be held , rest assured , Iranian people are ready to fight the yank and Zionists anytime !

    It is Ironic because it is what netenyahoo relied upon in Israel... he knew he was going to lose power but a good war would solidify his position and solve his local political problems... if he didn't have a hand in this conflict starting directly he certainly would have done everything he could to encourage it to start because it has kept him in office a little longer and out of jail a little longer too.

    For the Russians the conflict in Ukraine is similar because it is clearly a western conflict aimed at damaging and destroying Russia so they have to fight and they have to work together.

    For Iran and Yemen and other countries in the region war is polarising... and that will work against Israel and the US and UK.

    ahmedfire, starman, nomadski and lancelot like this post

    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 14312
    Points : 14447
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    Israel vs Iran Possible War? - Page 3 Empty Re: Israel vs Iran Possible War?

    Post  JohninMK Sun Jan 21, 2024 11:13 am

    JohninMK wrote:The main target in Erbil, before and after. Was it Mosad or just the house of a billionaire? Whatever, Iran decided that it needed 5 ballistic missiles.


    Seems we have an answer, both Laughing

    No doubt 'Kurdistan' is a cover for 'Syrian' oil.


    Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
    @ejmalrai
    Elan Nissim, the #Israeli Mossad chief agent in #Kurdistan, northern #Iraq, who was killed by #Iranian precision missiles, hung on the wall of his office the photos of Eli Cohen, the Mossad agent hung in #Damascus in 1965, and pilot Ron Arad, who disappeared in #Lebanon in 1986.

    LEYLA
    @LeylaRostami
    Do you want to know why Netanyahu is so angry about Iran's attack on the Mossad headquarters in Erbil?!

    The reason is this man, Pishro Dizaei, who was responsible for the export of Iraqi Kurdistan #oil to IZrael!

    GarryB and starman like this post

    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 14312
    Points : 14447
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    Israel vs Iran Possible War? - Page 3 Empty Re: Israel vs Iran Possible War?

    Post  JohninMK Sun Jan 21, 2024 11:18 pm

    Another video of the strike. Given the size of the blasts I'd say everyone is minimising the targets and the effect on the. Definitely more than that house.

    GarryB, ahmedfire and starman like this post

    GarryB
    GarryB


    Posts : 38484
    Points : 38984
    Join date : 2010-03-30
    Location : New Zealand

    Israel vs Iran Possible War? - Page 3 Empty Re: Israel vs Iran Possible War?

    Post  GarryB Mon Jan 22, 2024 5:38 am

    Funny that it is the opposite of western strikes...

    Normally western strikes they say they attacked terrorists and killed lots of them.... and then a few hours or days later you find out the terrorist is a guy and his brother that work for the Americans and about a dozen kids, or it is some baby milk factory or something.

    With these attacks you hear from western media it was innocent targets and they missed anyway... and then the truth gradually is released pieces at a time...

    ahmedfire, JohninMK and starman like this post

    ahmedfire
    ahmedfire


    Posts : 2040
    Points : 2220
    Join date : 2010-11-11
    Location : The Land Of Pharaohs

    Israel vs Iran Possible War? - Page 3 Empty Re: Israel vs Iran Possible War?

    Post  ahmedfire Mon Jan 22, 2024 6:49 am

    The resistance in Yemen , Lebanon and Palestine can close all israeli critical ports which receive oil .

    These groups will make a full scale war if israel attacked Iran .

    The main ports which receive oil are Eilat , Ashkelon and Haifa .

    Ashkelon port already closed after being hit by the Hamas rockets ( Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline which ending in Turkey was sending tankers to Ashkelon ) .

    Eilat port can't receive oil with a cop sitting on Yemen coasts and giving permission for only non related israeli vessels   sniper

    Haifa is near to Lebanon borders where Hezbollah can hit it easily .

    Israel is stuck and will be drained from it's resources .

    Israel vs Iran Possible War? - Page 3 Captud10

    GarryB, starman and nomadski like this post

    nomadski
    nomadski


    Posts : 2679
    Points : 2687
    Join date : 2017-01-02

    Israel vs Iran Possible War? - Page 3 Empty Re: Israel vs Iran Possible War?

    Post  nomadski Mon Jan 22, 2024 1:19 pm


    The Iranians displayed a photo of terrorists killed in border clashes near Pakistan / Afghanistan border , together with weapons . This tactic of interception of armed terrorists at the border is far more cautious and effective measure , compared to missile strikes . The Pakistanis claimed women and children killed in Iran missile strikes recently . Iran claimed training camps were targets . Both can not be true .

    The attack in Erbil , by missiles , showed large secondary explosions . Either fuel or Ammo , more likely Ammo . Therefore whatever this target was , it was more importantly an Arms depot . Here little risk of backlash and provides good hunting ground for Zionist or Kurdish militants , crossing borders into Iran .

    Iran can not launch attacks against Israel from Syria . And as I said before , Iran's national and geopolitical interests are just as easily served by withdrawing personnel from Syria . Instead hosting Syrians in Iran , for training etc . Syrians less likely to target each other , because they know each other's address .

    Direct retaliation against Israel by Iran from Iran territory , still not immediately needed and too provocative . Targets of interest exist on the high Seas , in a low key manner , offering no existential threat to Israeli public , necessitating a direct war , and Americans being drawn in , on their side .


    Rolling Eyes

    GarryB
    GarryB


    Posts : 38484
    Points : 38984
    Join date : 2010-03-30
    Location : New Zealand

    Israel vs Iran Possible War? - Page 3 Empty Re: Israel vs Iran Possible War?

    Post  GarryB Tue Jan 23, 2024 12:29 am

    The Pakistanis claimed women and children killed in Iran missile strikes recently . Iran claimed training camps were targets . Both can not be true .

    Not strictly true. Terrorists have families and often bases and camps are hidden by putting them in the middle of an urban area.

    We have seen video of Grad rocket vehicles launch rockets and then drive down the street and into a shopping mall to hide and reload, presumably with reload missiles and support and maintenance crews inside the mall... then we see the mall destroyed with a huge fireball of secondary explosions from all the rocket ammo stored inside, but the western news only shows the mall being hit and suggesting it was a typical mall with innocent civilians inside that were killed.

    Enemy attacks on your country are just new opportunities to show your allies and countries that have not decided yet that you are the victims and they are the bad guys and of course you will try to do so on every occasion and at every opportunity.

    Of course when the enemy release the full footage and show you are liars then over time the rest of the world stops believing anything you say so essentially it backfires and just makes you look untrustworthy.

    Of course part of the problem is taht when something happens all the media and those following the conflict want to know immediately what happened and sometimes even those that launched the attack don't know whether it worked fully or not, or if they got early warning of an Heat flash in a refinery on western satellite images and quickly made up a story it was them attacking when it was actually an accident or some such thing.

    When things happen the media love getting "experts" to speculate but generally they have no idea either and it is just educated guesses which often turn out to be wrong.... especially the western media who pick experts based on their views rather than how often they are right.

    nomadski likes this post

    nomadski
    nomadski


    Posts : 2679
    Points : 2687
    Join date : 2017-01-02

    Israel vs Iran Possible War? - Page 3 Empty Re: Israel vs Iran Possible War?

    Post  nomadski Tue Jan 23, 2024 3:41 am

    @ Garry B


    The tactic of fighting next to or within civilian areas is very common . Whether without much choice , as in Gaza , or deliberately like ISIS / Orcs . I have said before that if for example , one has to shoot through an Orc standing behind or in front of a civilian , then this is justified . But here I said it is not , why ? It all depends on the situation at hand , the existing potential for : ( 1 ) The level of threat by an enemy . ( 2 ) The level of attrition by troops . ( 3 ) The possibility of carrying out ground /  special operations . ( 4 ) Civilian losses .

    Take the Orcs , the threat to Russia is high , if they could move freely , then Russian cities would be attacked , many killed . The cost in losses by troops , in a ground advance or paratroopers , would be high . Even if such operation is possible , then the cost / benefit analysis favours a missile strike , given civilian losses .

    Take the Baloch terrorists , the threat to Iran is low , they only have small arms and IED , terror attacks cause relatively small casualties . Ground operations are possible to stop relatively small number crossing border , troop losses are low  . Missile strike not possible , because of damaging relations , causing war , highest casualties .

    Take Hamas fighters , the threat to Israel is moderate , they have small arms and short range Rockets . Actual or potential losses to Israel are of moderate level . Ground operations to stop attacks , with little troop losses exist . Missile strikes result in massive civilian casualties , even if possible .

    The Iranians claimed a military camp was attacked or barracks . And that these fighters were on the move towards Iran borders . If true then highly unlikely women and children involved . The attack by Pakistan , was obviously not against a military camp or barracks ( news report on TV )  , there was no obvious sign of ammo or weapons on the site . Here less doubt women and children killed .


    The response to a threat , depends not only on actual attacks , but on potential attacks and losses . If China attacked Israel , with only a few killed , still Israel might respond with nuke strike  !  If Iran attacked Israel , with only a few killed , still Israel might respond with massive air strikes . If Jordan attacked Israel , with only few killed , still Israel might respond with Artillery across border . Etc .

    Sponsored content


    Israel vs Iran Possible War? - Page 3 Empty Re: Israel vs Iran Possible War?

    Post  Sponsored content


      Current date/time is Sat Feb 24, 2024 11:52 am