Russian Economy General News: #12

Flight of the hawk: why the Central Bank moved to tighten monetary policy, by Anna Kaledina for Izvestia.
19.03.2021

The regulator raised the key rate for the first time since 2018.

If the rise in prices cannot be curbed, the Central Bank may again raise the key rate in April, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia. The regulator switched to "hawkish" monetary policy (MP) due to the growth of inflationary risks . On Friday, March 19, the Central Bank raised its key rate for the first time since 2018, raising it from a record low 4.25% to 4.5% per annum . Prior to this, the indicator was "paused" and has not been changed since July 2020. Now the Central Bank did not rule out the possibility of further rate hikes this year. Such a policy suggests that the regulator gives priority to curbing price increases before accelerating the economy, analysts say.

On Friday, the sign, which has already become a traditional indicator of sentiment in the Central Bank, was straightforward and obvious. Elvira Nabiullina adorned her outfit with a brooch in the shape of a hawk, opaquely declaring the transition to toughening monetary policy. At the last press conference after the meeting of the board of directors, the chairman of the Central Bank wore a brooch resembling a dot. In general, all the rhetoric testified to the fact that the end was put on the rate cut.

However, analysts did not expect such a quick change of course. Only a few of them predicted a “tough” scenario. Therefore, the increase in the key rate was not predicted, although the money market and the bond market have already incorporated this step into asset prices. True, given the fact that it will be done a little later.

As Elvira Nabiullina said, answering journalists' questions, the Board of Directors considered several options: keep the rate, raise it by 50 or 25 basis points. As a result, the regulator decided that the changes should be smooth.

In the phrase "You can not save, improve," Today, we have put a comma in the right place - said in a statement the chairman of the Central Bank.

The main argument in the issue of changing the course was inflation, which significantly broke away from the Central Bank's forecast , having increased by March 15 (according to estimates) to 5.8% in annual terms. In January, the figure reached 5.2%, and in February - 5.7%. As stated in the Central Bank's commentary, time is of the essence: if you postpone the rate hike, inflation may rise, but inflation expectations will not decrease. "This will push inflation further from the target and, as a result, will require a more significant rate hike in the future," the Central Bank said.

The regulator's release draws attention to several important points. First, the Central Bank allowed the rate increase at the next meetings . He also moved the timeline for inflation to return to the 4% target from the end of this year to the first half of 2022 . Which suggests that the regulator sees the long-term trend of rising prices . Although Elvira Nabiullina said that now the inflation rate is near peaks and a decrease is predicted in April due to the base effect.

Secondly, the Central Bank made it clear that additional inflationary pressure could occur due to the fact that funds in the NWF will begin to be directed to infrastructure projects. Third, restrictions on cross-border travel associated with the pandemic have led Russians to spend more domestically , rather than leaving them in the consumer market abroad.

Izvestia has already reported that purchasing activity in January was a record one. According to the research holding "Romir", citizens' spending on consumer goods in January 2021 turned out to be 12% more than a year earlier.

2 trillion rubles were not spent abroad, but directed to support the domestic economy, Elvira Nabiullina said on Friday, answering a question from Izvestia. In general, the regulator has not yet estimated the full amount of "saved" due to the lack of travel funds. Some of them, explained the head of the Central Bank, went to savings.

The experts interviewed by Izvestia accepted the regulator's decision with varying degrees of surprise. Thus, Anton Tabakh, chief economist of the Expert RA rating agency, noted that the rate hike is a little discordant with the previous statements of the Central Bank's leadership about the need for further inflation monitoring.

“Only five weeks have passed since the last meeting: not so much to draw unambiguous conclusions,” he is sure.

The expert added that the decision to raise the rate will strengthen the position of the national currency, but will not affect the food component of growth, which is of an imported nature.

According to the director of the rating service of the NRA, Sergei Grishunin, most analysts expected the rate increase not earlier than the April meeting of the Central Bank . And the fact that such a decision has been taken now testifies to the priority of the goal of keeping inflation within the target over the task of accelerating the economy.

“In addition, the increase in the Central Bank's rate indicates a clear trend of" export "of inflation from the United States and China to other emerging markets , which has already manifested itself in raising rates in Turkey and Brazil,” he continued. - And if the export of inflation from China decreases, since the stimulus program is likely to be reduced, then inflation from the United States will be exported in the form of rising prices in commodity markets, primarily metals and food.

According to Sergei Grishunin, the Central Bank signaled a faster transition to a neutral monetary policy (rate of 5-6%). As Elvira Nabiullina said in an interview with Izvestia, this can happen in a three-year period.

According to our updated expectations, the Central Bank is likely to raise the rate during 2021 to levels close to neutral, - said a spokesman for the NRA.

And if inflation cannot be curbed, the key rate could be raised by 25 basis points at the next meeting of the Central Bank's board of directors , he suggested.

Vasily Karpunin, head of the information and analytical content department at BCS World of Investments, shares a similar opinion. But if inflation starts to slow down, then the Central Bank may take a break and, for example, postpone the increase until June, he said.

The actions of the regulator are formally positive for the ruble, experts recalled.

Most likely, in the near future, the dollar rate will be in the range of 73.4–74.5 rubles, if there is no information about new sanctions. If they are purely personal in nature, the ruble is able to return to six-month highs - about 72.5 rubles per dollar, - Vasily Karpunin predicted.

And Sergei Grishunin believes that the volatility of the national currency will continue, since, in addition to the rate, geopolitical risks that outweigh everything else are seriously influenced by it. According to his forecast, if new sanctions risks are not realized, the dollar exchange rate will fluctuate in the range of 71–76 rubles.

https://iz.ru/1139603/anna-kaledina/polet-iastreba-pochemu-tcb-pereshel-k-uzhestocheniiu-denezhno-kreditnoi-politiki

This "experts" should stop counting some dubious exchange rate. The Dollar is close to being worthless after another 2 Trill. were printed.

Eventually the chickens will come home to roost and the US Dollar will devaluate a lot. Unless all the other nations also print a lot of money which might happen.
Most economies had shut downs because of COVID-19 and those states printed money to cover for any budget shortfalls. The US tripled down on that.
China got rid of COVID-19 before anyone else and I expect the value of their currency to go up significantly.
The ruble should be appreciating because the oil price has gone up in recent months. That it hasn't simply means that the economy hasn't adjusted to the dollar devaluation yet.

lancelot wrote:Eventually the chickens will come home to roost and the US Dollar will devaluate a lot. Unless all the other nations also print a lot of money which might happen.
Most economies had shut downs because of COVID-19 and those states printed money to cover for any budget shortfalls. The US tripled down on that.
China got rid of COVID-19 before anyone else and I expect the value of their currency to go up significantly.
The ruble should be appreciating because the oil price has gone up in recent months. That it hasn't simply means that the economy hasn't adjusted to the dollar devaluation yet.

It is not so much the forex rate that matters (only for 3rd world countries), but the hyperinflation in the US itself when it loses its ability to
sterilize its Pancho Villa style monetary policy. The US dollar being a world reserve currency and propagandized as God's Own Currency (TM)
means that the US never has to worry about faking it into existence to "solve" all of its own problems. It gets other benefits from the
position of the US dollar as well.

Fitch upgrades Russia’s growth outlook, projecting economic activity surge

International ratings agency Fitch has improved its outlook for the growth of the Russian economy in 2021 from 3% to 3.3%. Higher oil prices helped to improve the forecast, it said.

“The second wave of Covid-19 negatively impacted economic activity at the beginning of the year,” the agency’s analysts said.

Fitch expects economic activity to rise in the country from the second half of 2021 due to a partial recovery of investments and the vaccination of citizens.

At the same time, the ratings agency kept its forecast for Russia’s GDP growth in 2022 unchanged at 2.7%, as it expects that next year will compensate for the economic downturn in 2020.

https://www.rt.com/business/518485-russia-economy-growth-fitch/

These forecasts are rubbish. They don't know what level of foreign debt pay down there will be and that directly affects
the GDP growth. If $64 billion is retired like in 2018 does this mean 0% growth or is the real growth 6.6%.

Russia is building a new industry with investments of 1 trillion rubles

Russian exports of high-density polyethylene at the end of 2020 jumped 5.6 times compared to the period of 2019 and amounted to 1.2 million tons. Such a significant increase in the export of HDPE is associated with the reaching full capacity of the ZapSibNeftekhim plant . According to the results of 2020, the share of which amounted to 88% of all shipments abroad. Also , the export of low density polyethylene increased significantly by 300 thousand tons . At the end of 2020, Russia for the first time in history became a net exporter of the most popular types of polyethylene. Investments in the plant amounted to almost$ 10 billion . In total, about 1 trillion rubles have been invested in the industry . The share of polyethylene has grown so much that Russia has become almost the main supplier of polyethylene in the world.

A significant increase in polymer production is expected from 2023-2025 . Polyethylene production alone will grow to 7 million tons . Irkutsk Oil Company is preparing a site for the construction of a polyethylene production facility with a capacity of 650 thousand tons per year in Ust-Kut . The equipment was delivered to the site earlier. The commissioning of the new production is expected in 2023. Nizhnekamsk petrochem is building a new EP-600 pyrolysis unit . Completion of construction is expected in 2023 . The configuration of the polymer complex has not yet been announced.

Glavgosexpertiza issued a positive opinion on the design documentation and the results of engineering surveys for the construction project of the Amur Gas Chemical Complex. 2.3 million tons of polyethylene, 400 thousand polypropylene per year . Construction work on the site began in August 2020 . Completion of the work is planned for 2025 . Synchronously with the Amur GPP, which will supply raw materials for the polymer complex.

https://zen.yandex.ru/media/alternativeoko/rossiia-stroit-novuiu-otrasl-s-vlojeniiami-v-1-trillion-rublei-605226d9a779365202c5c2d5?&disable_feed_under_article=false

Lavrov: Russia, China Must Move Away From Using Dollar, Western-Controlled Payment Systems

MOSCOW (Sputnik) - The US sanctions risks need to be alleviated by switching to alternative currencies and moving away from using the dollar, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said.

"We need to reduce sanctions risks by strengthening our technological independence, by switching to payments in national currencies and in world currencies, alternative to the dollar. We need to move away from the use of Western-controlled international payment systems," Lavrov said in an interview with Chinese media, published by the Russian Foreign Ministry.

"They are promoting their ideologised agenda aimed at maintaining their dominance by holding back the development of other countries. This policy runs counter to the objective trend and, as it was customary to say, is ‘on the wrong side of history.’ The historical process will still take its toll," Lavrov said.

Diplomacy is relations between people, it is the ability to listen to each other and hear each other and the ability to find a balance of interests. That’s exactly the values that the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China are promoting in diplomacy," Lavrov said.

He emphasized that ultimatums and expectations for a partner state to "accept mistakes" and agree to the presented terms are not diplomacy, but that’s exactly what western states engage in and, when met with resistance, they impose sanctions.

"This approach [sanctions instead of diplomacy] has, unfortunately, taken root in the US. It started with the administration of Barack Obama, continued for four years when Donald Trump was at the helm of the White House. Now we are seeing the same ‘instincts’ demonstrated by the new US administration," the minister explained.

"You hear how European business expresses dissatisfaction with the fact that it is incurring losses, and meanwhile its niche in the Russian market is being occupied by other countries that are guided by their national interests, the interests of developing their economy, supporting business, and not by the logic of punishing someone for something," Lavrov said.

"We must form the widest possible coalition of countries that will fundamentally oppose this illegal practice," the Russian Foreign Minister concluded.

China would be a perfect agent by which to divert financial transactions away from western controlled ones. It could "force" south
east Asia and other trading patterns to use non-SWIFT banking channels and to not use the dollar. It has the economic presence to
achieve such a change. Russia's foreign economic footprint is too small to do this.

This is probably one of the main reasons that the US is so worried about China and Russia working together. Russia gives China
energy and resource security. The North Sea Route is starting to open up free shipping routes that don't have pirate controlled
bottlenecks such as the Suez and Panama. By pirates I mean the yanquis. They yap about free trade and freedom of navigation.
But this yapping is to divert the sheeples' attention from the extortion racket they are running.

Kiko wrote:Russia is building a new industry with investments of 1 trillion rubles

Russian exports of high-density polyethylene at the end of 2020 jumped 5.6 times compared to the period of 2019 and amounted to 1.2 million tons. Such a significant increase in the export of HDPE is associated with the reaching full capacity of the ZapSibNeftekhim plant . According to the results of 2020, the share of which amounted to 88% of all shipments abroad. Also , the export of low density polyethylene increased significantly by 300 thousand tons . At the end of 2020, Russia for the first time in history became a net exporter of the most popular types of polyethylene. Investments in the plant amounted to almost$ 10 billion . In total, about 1 trillion rubles have been invested in the industry . The share of polyethylene has grown so much that Russia has become almost the main supplier of polyethylene in the world.

A significant increase in polymer production is expected from 2023-2025 . Polyethylene production alone will grow to 7 million tons . Irkutsk Oil Company is preparing a site for the construction of a polyethylene production facility with a capacity of 650 thousand tons per year in Ust-Kut . The equipment was delivered to the site earlier. The commissioning of the new production is expected in 2023. Nizhnekamsk petrochem is building a new EP-600 pyrolysis unit . Completion of construction is expected in 2023 . The configuration of the polymer complex has not yet been announced.

Glavgosexpertiza issued a positive opinion on the design documentation and the results of engineering surveys for the construction project of the Amur Gas Chemical Complex. 2.3 million tons of polyethylene, 400 thousand polypropylene per year . Construction work on the site began in August 2020 . Completion of the work is planned for 2025 . Synchronously with the Amur GPP, which will supply raw materials for the polymer complex.

https://zen.yandex.ru/media/alternativeoko/rossiia-stroit-novuiu-otrasl-s-vlojeniiami-v-1-trillion-rublei-605226d9a779365202c5c2d5?&disable_feed_under_article=false

Heh, can imagine the armchair economists in this thread calling for Russia to prohibit crude oil sales, in the hopes of building up a greater petrochemical industry

Well such a step would certainly kill all the Russian oil majors overnight, deprive the Russian budget of major revenues and skyrocket world oil prices but who cares about that eh

Fortunately, the launch of the ZabSibNeftekhim plant and other projects in the works right now are ample proof that no such radical measures are necessary for Russia to build up a petrochemical industry. If the profit margins are promising enough, and there is enough domestic demand that would guarantee sales even without export success - then investors would come, or even the oil majors themselves would decide in favour of adding more value to their produce and building such plants with their own money.

kvs wrote:China would be a perfect agent by which to divert financial transactions away from western controlled ones.   It could "force" south
east Asia and other trading patterns to use non-SWIFT banking channels and to not use the dollar.   It has the economic presence to
achieve such a change.   Russia's foreign economic footprint is too small to do this.

This is probably one of the main reasons that the US is so worried about China and Russia working together.   Russia gives China
energy and resource security.   The North Sea Route is starting to open up free shipping routes that don't have pirate controlled
bottlenecks such as the Suez and Panama.   By pirates I mean the yanquis.   They yap about free trade and freedom of navigation.
But this yapping is to divert the sheeples' attention from the extortion racket they are running.

The Digital RMB will represent a major challenge to SWIFT and that is why the US is panicking a little bit more than usual.

With Digital RMB, the US cannot control or know where payments are going or coming from.

China has done a very good job of testing it at home and in 2021, they started testing it internationally and after going internationally, it freaked out the US and that is why Bejing 2022 Olympics are being targeted with propaganda and calls for ro move to or cancel it.

Bejing 2022 Olympics is the target date for Digital RMB.

par far wrote:The Digital RMB will represent a major challenge to SWIFT and that is why the US is panicking a little bit more than usual.

With Digital RMB, the US cannot control or know where payments are going or coming from.

SWIFT is not american! The "Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication" (SWIFT) is based in Belgium and under the jurisdiction of the EU. Under no circumstances ,except a full scale war, SWIFT will sanction Russia or China, because SWIFT is no political instrument. Okay...but to be true the EU is the puppy of Uncle Sam now.

But other systems beside SWIFT will be a win win for the whole world. Competition stimulates business!

The US used 9/11 to gain a stranglehold on the world financial system.
They gained an inordinate amount of control over all sorts of things.
All "large" financial transactions in the world are heavily scrutinized and they even went after Swiss bank accounts which were secret until a couple decades back.
Banking secrecy mostly stopped existing. Especially if you are a US citizen.
SWIFT may nominally be in the EU, but just look at what happened with the Iran sanctions.

Russia will become an exporter of "battery" lithium for batteries

The Angarsk Electrolysis and Chemical Plant (Irkutsk Region, part of the TVEL Fuel Company of Rosatom) has launched a pilot plant for the production of a chemical substance of lithium hydroxide of the so-called battery quality. This compound is used primarily in the manufacture of power sources (batteries), which have a chemical principle of operation. This is reported by the communications department of the enterprise.

Russia will become an exporter of lithium

The new production line and conveyor of the Angarsk plant are intended for the production of products that will be primarily exported. Customers will be companies around the world that produce key components for lithium-ion batteries.

However, domestic consumption of products is also envisaged. Thus, in the Russian Federation, AECC's client may be, in particular, a chemical concentrate plant from Novosibirsk (which is also a subsidiary of the fuel company "Rosatom" TVEL). NZKhK itself is a large producer of lithium and its compounds, but, as it turned out, the "battery" chemical element and its hydroxide are not yet available.

The newest installation operates in a test mode, the technological modes are being tested in order to check the technical characteristics of the processes and to obtain pilot batches of the product.

Large-scale production

The new production line will produce raw materials without any harmful emissions and waste, which fundamentally distinguishes it from the old technological process for obtaining this compound, and the new technology has also made it possible to achieve a lower energy intensity of the process.

The specialty chemistry industry is a non-nuclear business of TVEL Fuel Company, which is developing very confidently. Annual revenue is over 10 billion rubles. The main driver of the new direction of activity is the export supplies of products from lithium-containing compounds.

Despite the fact that, according to the plan, the large-scale production of lithium hydroxide at the new unit will be carried out only in 2024, already this very soon the first batches of products will be received and commercial deliveries to consumers around the world will begin.

All this should represent the domestic manufacturer in the dynamically developing market of "battery" lithium, the main component for batteries widely used in modern technology, and at the same time consolidate its position in the rapidly growing industry.

Author: Nikolay Gritsay

https://finobzor.ru/104274-rossija-stanet-jeksporterom-batarejnogo-litija-dlja-akkumuljatorov.html?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fzen.yandex.com

The coal industry will bring billions to Russia

MOSCOW, March 20, 2021, RUSSTRAT Institute.

Disputes between the state and the coal business

The Russian government intends to significantly improve the efficiency of the coal industry. Previously, coal mining and export were entirely in the hands of private companies, which poorly coordinated their policies with the state.

Despite the presence of a huge number of programs, development projects, strategies, etc., coal miners lived their own life, independent of the state. Moreover, they constantly asked for a discount on Russian Railways tariffs, which, at times, reached 50%. At the same time, the mining companies did not fulfill their obligations to transport the fixed volumes of cargo, which jeopardized the financial calculations of Russian Railways.

On the whole, it turns out to be a rather paradoxical situation. On the one hand, the state, for its own money, is engaged in the expansion of BAM and Transsib, the main beneficiaries of which are coal companies. On the other hand, the profit from the increase in the export of Russian coal is sent to offshores, where most of the mining enterprises are registered. Naturally, the coal industry generates hundreds of thousands of jobs, “pays” a number of taxes and so on.

However, the potential remains largely untapped. Moreover, there is a strategic threat. Thus, the global consumption of coal in the long term will begin to fall. We do not share the panic, according to which, by 2030, the demand for coal will decrease several times, but by the middle of the 21st century, the structure of generation will change significantly. And the share of coal in it is unlikely to be large-scale.

Goals and objectives

Accordingly, the goal of Russia is to obtain as much profit as possible from coal exports with its subsequent investment in the development of non-resource sectors of coal-mining regions. To do this, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:

- To increase the export of coal to the highest possible level;

- to compel mining companies to invest in the economy of the regions where they operate;

- to create production facilities for deep processing of coal to obtain products with high added value.

The first task is being successfully solved by the government. By 2024, the throughput capacity of the BAM and Transsib will reach 180 million tons, which will increase coal exports by more than 40%. At the moment, the expansion of the two main railways is proceeding briskly, although certain problems are arising.

The government has developed a project for additional investments in the railway infrastructure of the Eastern range. For this, funds from the NWF will be used, the liquid part of which has "stepped over" the mark of 7% of GDP. It should also be noted here that we are talking about the development of transport infrastructure for the export of coal not only from Kuzbass, but also from Yakutia, where the state-owned companies "Rostec" have come to grips with mining.

However, the business of 180 million tons of export may not be limited. So, the other day, the head of Rosneft and the executive secretary of the presidential commission for the fuel and energy complex Igor Sechin sent Vladimir Putin his proposals that the throughput of the highways could be increased to 195 million tons.

With the solution of the second problem - forcing coal companies to invest in non-resource sectors - everything is much more complicated. So far, the mechanism of how to do this and control it is not clear. And it is difficult to rely on the prudence and responsibility of private traders.

However, at a meeting on the development of the coal industry, Vladimir Putin announced that coal miners allegedly were not against such an initiative. At another meeting to stimulate investment activity, the President of Russia instructed the Federal Tax Service to report on a quarterly basis on where the largest business spends its profits on foreign markets.

It can be assumed that the government will apply the "carrot and stick" method to coal miners. Those companies that invest in non-resource sectors of the economy will be given the green light on tax preferences, access to the rail network and port facilities. So far, it is difficult to say how effective this method will be, but it is gratifying that the state has finally taken up this problem.

Untapped potential

However, with regard to the third task (the development of deep processing of coal ), everything is sad here. At the moment in Russia there are simply no technologies of the corresponding technologies and competencies. At the same time, deep processing of coal is a rather profitable direction.

For example, China launched the world's largest coal processing plant a few years ago, with a capacity of 500 thousand tons of polymers per year. In the global polymer market, the growth in demand is outstripping the growth in supply. Accordingly, these products could bring good added value to Russia.

From all of the above, it follows that the state has finally decided on an approach to the development of the coal industry. The goals and objectives were identified, as well as the ways to achieve them. Despite this, the coal industry has even greater potential, which so far remains undiscovered.

Elena Panina, Director of the Institute of Russian Strategies - RUSSTRAT

https://zen.yandex.ru/media/russtrat/ugolnaia-otrasl-prineset-rossii-milliardy-6055c6f0c9454051656c63c0?&disable_feed_under_article=false

Sounds good. Third one is a bit hard to understand. It you look at it in that coal only making polymers, then maybe. But Russian production of Polymers has drastically increased and is selling abroad. The market may get over saturated if they add in coal polymers. It may also become cheaper to produce though so there is that added benefit. The technologies already exist and it isn't as if Russia can't fast track it (see auto CNC's, LNG tech, etc - created within a year). But they also managed to bring back old technology to solve another problem in various areas - fuel. Coal slurry is still a thing and can be even cheaper as well as cleaner than regular fuel (depending on region of course). Small Russian companies are involved and their products are apparently in use in DNR/LNR - turning coal into petrol and such..

I imagine there are other products that coal can be used for but I'm not sure either.

MOSCOW, March 31. /TASS/. The World Bank has upgraded its outlook on Russia’s GDP growth in 2021 to 2.9% compared with its December forecast of 2.6%, and in 2022 - to 3.2% from 3% due to a lower than expected GDP contraction in 2020 and quick easing of COVID-19-related restrictions, according to a report.

The outlook is still largely exposed to uncertainty and risks of a decline, the World Bank noted though. Moreover, economic recovery depends on the efficiency of vaccines and the risk of new sanctions, it added.

According to the latest outlook by Russia’s Economic Development Ministry, GDP growth will equal 3.3% in 2021, and 3.4% in 2022.

The Bank of Russia expects a recovery growth of the country’s economy at 3-4% in 2021, a 2.5-3.5% growth in 2022, and 2-3% - in 2023.

miketheterrible wrote:Sounds good.  Third one is a bit hard to understand. It you look at it in that coal only making polymers, then maybe. But Russian production of Polymers has drastically increased and is selling abroad. The market may get over saturated if they add in coal polymers.  It may also become cheaper to produce though so there is that added benefit.  The technologies already exist and it isn't as if Russia can't fast track it (see auto CNC's, LNG tech, etc - created within a year).  But they also managed to bring back old technology to solve another problem in various areas - fuel.  Coal slurry is still a thing and can be even cheaper as well as cleaner than regular fuel (depending on region of course).  Small Russian companies are involved and their products are apparently in use in DNR/LNR - turning coal into petrol and such..

I imagine there are other products that coal can be used for but I'm not sure either.

Sounds good , but it is not good.  if Russia lived in a harmonious world or love and peace ,where the dominating world economic powers in the west respected Russia , then it will be great for sure. more money is always good.. isn't it ?

But we don't live in that fantasy tale world , even less Russia .  

imagine that you live on an island and a foreign power with a powerful navy ,put under siege your country from all sides , blocking you from trading with the outside world.. and your country have no way to stop them .Effectively under siege your economy , especially if your country economy depend heavily on exports .  So any news about your country that will now sell more coal ,and more plastic ,
and more wheat productions records, or more olympic medals , will not solve the long term big changer problem ,that your country is under siege and is blocked from the outside world , so long term speaking your country will die , if it doesn't product everything it needs inside , since is under siege by a foreign power.

What im trying to say ,is that until Russia defeat anglo western system , stop their power , fight it and defeat it , then nothing that Putin does at the nation level ,will be good enough.. raising salaries to people , breaking bananas farming records , winning more sport gold medals ,creating new disney like pretty expensive parks , being better at hockey or judo ,building more warships or hypersonic missiles , nothing of that will solve the problem , big big problem Russia face ,that is the anglo west controls the economy of the world ,and most of the developed nations too. and absolutely none, 0% of the new things Putin have been doing ,since he came to power 21 years ago ,will truly help Russia from its existential threat it is facing ,that is effectively a coup away in Germany , or a new major war with a neighbor incited by the west , away from collapsing completely its economy and facing civil unrest .

So all this "breaking news" in russia economy are only band aids to stop bleeding, to a patient with terminal cancer .

Until Russia develop a clear strategy to bring down the anglo system , Russia existential problems will not end ,its the opposite ,the problems will only increase , because Russia is not fighting back the
western system.   asking politely the world ,to stop using dollars shows how retarded is Putin , because as long the west have so incredibly influential and so popular business ,the world will continue using dollars and on top of that they control the trade rules too of the banking system.

Russia what they need to do ,is to fight back , to counter anything the west have ,that they use as soft power , to influence the world to follow them. Russia needs to create alternatives to the business of western world . Only china is fighting the western world ,and putin's is only sitting on his hands ,
hopping that "things solves on its own ",without them moving a finger.  How i know putin isdoing nothing to fight the west? because all the "progress" that he advertise are cosmetic progress but does not solve the issue ,that the world is dominated by people who are highly active ,in the destruction of russia.

the west can very easily , provoke a major war in ukraine or between transnistria and moldova,that will send the gdp of russia to the level of venezuela today . All they need is put the right people in power in ukraine and it will be done ,and russia will get and endless conflict there ,that it will never win. If half the civilian population in the country  hates russia. So russia could face the same scenario that US military faced in vietnam ,forcing a full scale invasion of Russia military in several fronts at same time , something that will totally sink Russia economy in no time.

Because i don't think ,a world war 3 with nukes ,is correct way to solve russia its problems .
Russia needs to destroy the western commercial world , completely disband it ,or at very least
challenge it ,with alternatives that are equally comparable.

Means Russia needs to modernize its economy ,following the example of China .
which is to directly compete with anglo western business ,with equal of better alternatives
in those high tech business that society more love , more enjoy and more spend their hard earned money.  

You know the term nuclear war .   but this is the wrong way for Russia to fight the west.
the best way is ..... INLUENCE WAR  this is how Russia needs to fight. by attracting the attention
,amazing western societies with things they will love to have.  

China is the only nation in the planet fighting the anglo western world , what lame Putin is doing
is only resisting their attacks , dodging bullets , but not fighting back. Russia needs to work together with china to speed up , an create an alternative high tech + space business world , to offer an alternative to the anglo world , that's how you encourage nations to stop using american dollars , by offering better alternative business.                              

China is creating an alternative to the swift system , but this alone is not enough ,so they creating amazing business ,to encourage nations to use their alternative digital yuan block chain payment system.

if i were in putin's shoes , i will privatize all russia gas station business to friendly nations or friendly russian billionaires that are patriotic , and start a major ambitious education revolution in russia ,completely free and mandatory and not only focus heavily in science and mathematics , but also in personal development and self empowerment of society ,this is the best way to promote patriotism
and stop the dangerous ideologies that are spreading like cancer in Russia , like islam ,and other destructive ideologies too ,as is feminism and extreme left ideologies or extreme right.

Russia should replace their dumb religion , like orthodox church is ,and replace it for modern era spiritual new era teachings . Common sense ,real life experience , what works in practice , should always rule over any religion or ideology or cult ,whenever there is a contradiction between both.

To save Russia and take it to a new level , Putin is not the leader , that could ever do that .
you need a president that is not backwards thinker , that don't live in the past . and instead
rebuild Russia in a brand new way ,someone with very big ambitious , that thinks in completely new
ways , and not the old ones.. ( lets farm more potatoes or sell more coal , to improve the economy a little more ,this is how putin think. )


i for example will have literary exported "Russia Federation" ,into south america , this will be worth of trying. and with that i don't mean a colonization of south america.  but reinvention of Russia , the spanish version of russia federation. so to create and economic ,military ,political , scientific alliance there. and move half of the nukes of russia to south america and half of their navies. but before Russia can do such a big crazy thing , they need to influence them , sell them ,the idea of a south america federation of Russia , if american have NATO ,then Russia can have its own alliance too.
but this alliance will be far more integrated and not merely military one ,but political ,cultural too,
and use christian values ,family values as their moral compass for the laws ,right and wrong.

Russia have a big problem for expanding ,in the asian continent ,because russia neighbors are very underdeveloped cultures ,that believe in 70 virgins , or marriage with children , and repress women rights. so this is why Russia need to expand in other continents ,where it have much bigger cultural compatibilities.

south america wants prosperity , they want freedom and independence , but they will never have that ever , because there is a super power ,that have locked them forever under their system ,
and is too powerful for them to fight , and the ones that try to fight the west , as cuba and venezuela did , ended very bad for them.. but all this things will change dramatically ,is russia literally integrated with them as one nation. with same army , latino-russian army ,same laws , same education system . something similar to the european union , but more integrated and call it
the russo-latin union .

And south american have the perfect weather ,the perfect geography , the perfect christian roots cultures ,for Russia to expand . and as a bonus , russian navies will be right at the door step of
their enemies , because once south america joins , mexico will do it too. since vast majority of latins are extremely annoyed of being disrespected and the interference on their sovereignty.
the relations between latin america with US are similar to the iraquis versus US military in their homeland.. they will like they to go ,but they don't have the power to kick them from their country.
neither they will like the economic sanctions if they are kicked . So US alliance with latin america are
artificial ones , this are "friendly relations "at gun point. but latin america accept to become like semi-colonies only because US business are good for their nation development and they don't see Russia yet as an alternative to US in term of modern business and development ,and china do have modern business but its culture is totally different to theirs . Democracy and freedom of expression is very important for them.

^ Total nonsense Van7.

China is carrying the US and specifically the US navy on its back. Its the US's biggest trade partner. Its China who is impeding the mutipolar world most by being in bed with the US and staying there.

It looks like Russia will have to do everything. If not , nobody else will.

Backman wrote:^ Total nonsense Van7.

China is carrying the US and specifically the US navy on its back. Its the US's biggest trade partner. Its China who is impeding the mutipolar world most by being in bed with the US and staying there.

It looks like Russia will have to do everything. If not , nobody else will.

not true..

China is moving away from the american world ..is promoting a new economic system.
that anglo powers no longer can monitor or control. and they are building business to counter
anglo west high tech industry and challenging them in space too. so not true.



china is even building a new world wide internet.

like i said , china is the only nation in the world ,that is fighting the anglozionist world.
what russia is doing is not fighting ,but standing still and surviving their attacks , dodging bullets,
Russia have zero initiatives , zero projects to counter the anglo western business world.
computers that russia build is only for government use , russia space program is just taxi to the iss,
putin's 20 years in power ,have offered no competition to the american most popular business world ,while china is offering competion in almost every one .

Remember what i said , there are two ways to fight an empire , one is with through pure force ,using your military to defeat them , another is with positive influence ,(soft power/business power) with doing things your enemies and or their society will admire and enjoy.

Look one example of the many that exist of china soft power in action , how is influensing the west.
this is just one example of many china have in similar or different business they have.

take a look of a video game ,that china is doing ,that have THE ENTIRE gaming industry in the
west impressed , not only gamers ,but top american and european game studios . while washington
dc is trying to isolate china , blame china for every death ,every hacker , every virus in the world ,
the entire gaming industry is praising China video game industry and promoting closer relations with them.  





innovative modern business that everyone love ,promote interest in your nation , interest in your culture too , interest in your society , promotes good relations , and at the same time all this innovative business that everyone likes , creates new culture too ,shape society way of thinking. so is a cycle , that the more influence over society ,your business have , the more modern your culture will become. So better be Russia the one that influence its society ,than the west to do that.

this is why Russia needs to detach from the past and look into the future ,try new business , new tactics ,that not only  will help russia influence the world , but also significantly boost their economy too .  

the world entertainment /digital media industry will be worth of 2.5 trillions of US dollars.. in the very near future.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/237749/value-of-the-global-entertainment-and-media-market/

Even the canadian and polish government ,so japan too ,invest heavily in digital entertainment industry . Russia economy is heavily outdated ,it needs to modernize and look to influence the western societies ,specially adults generation ,to influence them ,with business they will like.
The powers ,the societies ,Russia fails to influence ,will be forced to align against Russia by the west.
Video games promotes high tech electronics , advanced media storage , computers , advanced graphics , art , music , literature , promotes big jobs , medium jobs ,small business , movies are created ,based on games that are more popular , and most successful entertainment ,drive culture , create park attractions , and in the future will transform cities. this is how innovative business should be ,one that amaze society , and attract their attention.. this is how Russia needs to fight the west ,
with business that amaze the vast majority of western societies ,one way or another.

The way Putin's russia try to influence the west is with better weapons and politeness and meaningless sport medals. this only works with third world nations like turkey , who needs weapons ,
but to influence the west ,you need to compete with their business and do things that are better that what the west offer , whether is entertainment , or electronic hardware or more ambitious space program.

Does Russia care about sanctions?

According to influential Western media, the restrictions gave Russia the opportunity to become economically much stronger than before. - Vladimir Voloshin

Our country seems to have gotten used to the sanctions. Moreover, according to journalist Ruchir Sharma , who works for the Financial Times, the sanctions only strengthen the Russian economy. According to Sharma, Russia was forced to resort to conservation and isolation of the country's economic system. Last year, during a massive lockdown, the Russian Federation had one of the lowest levels of government debt of any developing country. Compared to previous years, Russia is now not as vulnerable to a crisis as a state.

The Financial Times notes that against the background of accusations of the Russian Federation of hacker attacks during the US presidential elections, as well as “using killers and other provocateurs abroad,” the sanctions enabled Russia to become economically much stronger than before. According to journalist Ruchir Shurma, the March package of sanctions will bring minimal harm to Russia due to the country's strengthened economy.

In addition, the journalist's article says that Russia is not as dependent on the oil market as it used to be. This is because the country keeps excess profits when prices rise, and wastes this profit when the same prices fall. Thus, the ruble is stabilizing, not fluctuating from price changes for hydrocarbons. In this, Russia is ahead of Norway and Canada, where the stability of the currency, depending on the price of hydrocarbons, leaves much to be desired.

In his article, Ruchir Sharma also compares Russia and China, mentioning import substitution. In fact, the Russian Federation protects its production from competition from abroad, which is reminiscent of the economic principles of the PRC. But, Sharma notes that such an economic strategy is more of a defense, not an offensive.

Chairman of the State Duma Viacheslav Volodin generally adheres to the same opinion. He believes that economic sanctions and claims to the country's policies are partly due to the fact that Russia is developing successfully. According to the official, the political standards of the States are far from Russian ones, which was shown by last year's presidential elections in the United States. Volodin also added that "any of our successes and victories will be blocked," but even in this case, Russia will only become stronger.

Indeed, as the presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov recently noted , the sanctions against the Russian Federation "do not achieve their goal." For example, many officials said that the new restrictions on the part of Washington make no sense. America itself does not think so - the Americans expect that the first blow will fall on the Russian defense industry.

In many ways, it is for this reason that pressure on Russia will continue regardless of the political agenda. Thus, the press secretary of the White House Jen Psaki told the press that “we are talking about weeks, not months,” meaning the strengthening of restrictive measures against the Russian Federation. Today, the main charges lie in alleged cyberattacks by Russian hackers on the United States, as well as payments allegedly made by domestic intelligence services to Islamists in Afghanistan for the murder of the American military. In addition, they want to impose sanctions on all participants in the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project.

Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov , who is responsible in particular for the Russian defense complex, said that starting in September, the United States will begin to draw up a "strategic" list of strategic goods and technologies that are prohibited from being imported into Russia. This means that the United States, by its own decision, can restrict the supply of high-tech products to the Russian Federation.

American experts say that the Joe Biden administration will use absolutely all possible tools against Russia, aiming not only at the defense sector of the Russian economy. For example, the former coordinator of the State Department's sanctions policy, Daniel Fried, said that instead of a targeted sanctions attack on specific Russian oligarchs, the US authorities connected several departments at once - the State Department, the Treasury Department, and the Commerce Department. The first announced restrictions on the export of weapons, the second on certain financial bans, and the third on a stricter export control regime.

Dmitry Abzalov , President of the Center for Strategic Communications, answered Svobodnaya Pressa's questions about the sanctions applied against Russia .

"SP": - Do the sanctions from the West really strengthen Russia, not harm it?

- There are sanctions that harm, and there are sanctions that increase. There is no unequivocal position. The sanctions that were introduced against China, India, the European Union - to some extent, work to destroy the system. For example, they restrict access to high-tech industries, the technological component. On the other hand, there are some segments in which sanctions create competitiveness and force the development of production. For example, if there was no sanction, we would not have our own national payment system, and there would be no MIR card either. Payment systems would not operate internally. Then disconnecting from SWIFT would be a pressure tool. Most likely, for example, there would be no cheese making.

The same would apply to oil production equipment. Until 2014, the bulk of production was provided by foreign companies. And if then the whole complex of restrictive measures were introduced, and they were directly introduced, then we would be left with very big problems on the shelf. The same goes for the chip issue. It is the need for import substitution of the most vulnerable part of the Russian economy, electronics, that demanded the development of solutions such as "Baikal" and "Elbrus". Moreover, it is clear that the proportionality is about neither five nanometers, nor six - this is not Taiwan, but it is extremely important to ensure at least some kind of operability, at least for the military-industrial complex. Because modern weapons use an automated control system, it is clear that it is basically impossible to build all this without processors.

Shipbuilding, engine building ... If it had not been for the situation with Ukraine, we would still be purchasing the bulk of ship engines in large quantities. And any problems with foreign suppliers would lead to the fact that our government order was disrupted.

There are areas in which a serious blow has obviously occurred. That is, on the one hand, the sanctions caused toxicity, even the threat of imposing the sanctions themselves. On the other hand, a number of industries, in which they made their own production, created their own market. And in any case, the taxation in this segment is much higher than in the case of imports. Moreover, the currency factor is problematic for a number of economies, and if food was supplied in the same volumes as before 2014, then the rise in the dollar exchange rate could lead to very serious problems associated with food inflation. That is, an increase in its production in the ruble, including agriculture, reduced shock risks and shock waves from the growth of the exchange rate. What this can lead to - we can understand from Egypt, in which it actually led to a revolution,in the countries of the Middle East, where the problem with the import of grain crops is extremely painful. Therefore, answering your question, there are areas in which the sanctions component has created certain opportunities, there are areas in which it has absolutely inflicted damage.

"SP": - What other restrictions from the US should be expected?

- There are several options, but the timings are as follows - from June 2, they introduce sanctions. So far, they are only personal, not related to sectors. From the dangerous in the near future, these are sanctions for, according to the Americans, hacking of companies. For this, there may be the most severe sanctions at the sectoral level. There were rumors that these could be sanctions against the Russian state debt, new placements, sanctions against Russian state banks, but so far this, as it were, has not been traced. Because there are residents in the bonds of old issues, and it is clear that by hitting new issues, you will touch the old ones in terms of their value. The same goes for issues related to financial institutions, so these are the most unlikely, but painful procedures that are possible.

Also, Nord Stream 2, the American position on this issue is not fully understood. On the one hand, they are trying to enlist the support of Germany, while Germany is vehemently opposed to Nord Stream 2. According to the scheme adopted now by the United States, they need to impose sanctions, the next report will be in two or three weeks. It is clear that the American colleagues want to introduce certain restrictions by the end of the summer. There will be elections in Germany in the fall, and the project will be completed by the fall. And if it is introduced, then whoever comes to power in Germany, and it may be the "Greens" who oppose this process, the project will still be created and will work. From this point of view, it is more profitable for the Americans to delay the project as long as possible, while interpreting it so as not to quarrel with Germany,counting on a change in the political course of the largest economy of the European Union after the parliamentary elections.

https://anapkna6wayqbddezy265syb2m--finobzor-ru.translate.goog/104781-sankcii-rossii-nipochem.html?utm_source=topwar.ru

where was this picture taken ?




it was not the west , but Siberia Russia.

Russians re-created the space ship of an american star war movie , and also their clothin
and gear too. The west is using their innovative modern business , in entertainment ,to influence the world including Russians ,away of their own nation obsolete culture. This is how you create pro west
thinkers . Most of the russian bloggers ,  who have videos in youtube ,that i have seen considers
their country culture outdated , and praise the western one.

This is the problem with putin and his outdated development of Russia .
he looks backwards to the past and stay there , have nothing to promote of his nation from the present , unless is stupid hockey and judo or hypesonic missiles. As long putin believe ,he can influence the west with politeness bullshit , and sport medals , Russia will continue bleeding to death , until they manage to break it , from the inside ,just like they did to ukraine .

more interesting info..

how the americans government and its elite media , pentagon military ,are scared to death , of the idea of china (and russia) to develop leadership in the semiconductor industry . you can see the panic of the west ,of this kind of high tech business.. what the west knows ,that scare them so much
at the idea of china (an russia) surpassing US domination in the semiconductor industry ?
this is why now the pentagon is demanding taiwain to relocate their manufacturing plants in america ,for fear that china could influence taiwan one day to drop relations with US and disobey their sanctions. This is how you defeat US today , without their business leadership in high tech industry , they will lose most of their nation influence in the world , and this semiconductor business is extremely key factor in the american economy.. from entertainment industry ,to health industry ,to software industry ,to military industry almost the entire American economy and its modern economy and culture depends significantly on having the lead in the world in semiconductors. without the invention of the computer the internet will not exist today. this are inventions ,that totally game changing one ,that totally create changes in the entire planet , and can increase the performance ,productivity and security of nations. why the hell putin did not took seriously this industry and allowed the west to totally dominate for more than 20 years ,without offering any alternative ,is one of the most disastrous mistakes of putin on his political career. China is awake and understand this very well , that it can defeat the western influence over the world and even break the western economy ,collapsing its dollars ,by just developing leadership in high tech industry.

wall street journal and other media crap in their pants report , about how AMD helped china
to speed up its semiconductor industry.