calripson wrote:Austin wrote:https://ria.ru/20191205/1561989265.html
"The budget surplus in 2019 will be about 1.8% of GDP," the prime minister said.
"Now we have a budget surplus. We assume that this surplus will be somewhere around 1.8% of GDP. This is also a very decent margin of safety, which allows us to look ahead with confidence," Medvedev said.
Around $31 billion in US dollars. Oil prices have averaged circa $60/barrel in 2019 but gas prices have fallen significantly - Gazprom rates are down 30% year on year to Europe and the lowest in 15 years. This is due to oversupply primarily from US fracking and the rapidly developing LNG market. It will not reverse any time soon. Oil prices have been supported by the Saudis who are trying to float shares of Aramco.
Break-even budget forecasts in 2019 were predicated on circa $40/barrel oil prices and Russia adds roughly $2 billion per $1 above that level to the budget (or subtracts below), so an extra $40 billion less lower revenues on Gazprom profits and exports equals $31 billion.
Russia's biggest miss is the lost investment income of reserve funds which historically when invested in capital markets have returned circa 1% per annum in dollar terms. Returns on plain vanilla pension fund type investments in the US over the same time period average 7-8% per annum, an opportunity loss of over $100 billion.
Russia cannot invest its money abroad. It does not have the stock market large enough to absorb the volume of investment and yield
the returns you point to. So $100 billion is a theoretical figure not accessible in the real world.